A decade of displacement in the Middle East and North Africa and 2019 and disasters between 2010 New displacements by conflict The boundariesandthenamesshowndesignationsusedonthismap donotimplyofficialendorsementoracceptancebyIDMC. The countryandterritorynamesfiguresareshownonlywhenthetotalnew displacementsvalueismajorthanzero,sometotalsmaynotcorrespondwiththesumofseparatefigures.Dataconsolidated byIDMC.Productiondate:13/11/2020. official endorsementoracceptance byIDMC The boundariesandthenames shownandthedesignationsusedonthismapdonotimply 29,000 |2,800 30.1m Morocco 17,00 Algeria 0 Less than88,000 88,001 to1,420,000 1,420,001 to5,740,000 5,740,001 to17,000,000 More than17,000,000 1,487,000 T N - disasters otal e w

disp 4,400 |4 Tunisia l a c emen 7,600 |1,409,000 t s |

28,656,000 - conflict New

d isplacemen Libya 23,000 |521,000 77,000 |10,000 5,700 |3,300 t s Palestine Lebanon 1,100 |30,000 Israel

Egypt Jordan 2,600 Saudi Arabia Djibouti 19,000 16,000 49,000 |17,011,000 Syria (56.6% ofthetotalfigur 139,000 |5,603,000 Iraq (19% ofthetotalfigur 49,000 |17,011,000 Syria 188,000 |4,066,000 Yemen

e) e) 12,000 Oman 1,100 United ArabEmirates 139,000 |5,603,000 Iraq 895,000 Iran 188,000 |4,066,000 Yemen (14.1% ofthetotalfigur 7,600 |1,409,000 Libya (4.7% ofthetotalfigur

e) e) 3 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Acknowledgements 5

This report was written by Vicente Anzellini, Juliette Benet, Ivana Hajžmanová and Clémence Leduc with contributions from Christelle Cazabat, Sylvain Ponserre, Chloe Sydney and Louisa Yasukawa.

IDMC extends its thanks to the governments and partners that provided up-to-date and detailed information on displacement.

IDMC would like to thank especially the expert advice and review provided by the following persons:

Modher Al Hamadani (HNAP Syria), Ali Al Sakkaf (NRC Yemen), Olga Franch Aymerich (IOM Iraq), Rose Marie Guevremont (IOM Iraq), Christopher James William Holt (West Bank Protection Consortium), Beatriz Ochoa (NRC Iran), Mikolaj Radlicki (Gaza Protection Consortium), Simon Randles (West Bank Protection Consortium), Dax Bennett Roque (NRC Libya), Alexandra Saieh (NRC Syria) and Ewa Wieliczko (ACAPS Yemen Hub)

Editor: Jeremy Lennard / Steven Ambrus Maps: Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa Design and layout: Vivcie Bendo Cover photo: A man riding his bicycle in Mosul Old City. Throughout Iraq, many internally displaced people (IDPs) are returning, and there has been an overall decrease in new displacements for the last two years. Despite the chal- lenges, durable solutions are within reach, Alan Ayoubi/ NRC, 2019

IDMC’s work would not be possible without the gener- ous contributions of its funding partners. We would like to thank them for their continuous support in 2020, and we extend particular gratitude to the follow- ing contributors: The U.S. Agency for International Development, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the German Federal Foreign Office, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the European Union, and Liechtenstein’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

A girl is seen near a submerged field after flash floods hit the Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces in Iran in late January 2020. Photo by Reza Adeli/

Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, January 2020 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Table of 7 Contents

4 Acknowledgements

8 Foreword

10 Key messages

14 Introduction

18 Part 1: Monitoring displacement over the last decade

20 Conflict and Violence

26 Country Overviews Syria Iraq Yemen Libya Palestine Egypt

48 Disasters

64 Part 2: Advancing solutions in the next decade

76 Conclusion Idlib remains one of the governorates most affected 78 Glossary by internal displacement in Syria.

HFO project/OCHA, January 2020 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa If we want those most affected by displacement in MENA 9 Foreword to break what has become a vicious circle of fragility and risk and to thrive, we need to act jointly and we need to act now. At IDMC, we believe that robust evidence on the scale, risk and impacts of displacement is the bedrock for discussions about solutions. When solid data is comple- mented with greater political commitment and more human and financial resources, positive change can occur.

When the Arab Spring protests broke out across the Ten years after the Arab Spring, such discussions are much Middle East and North Africa a decade ago, the region needed. We remain committed to supporting our national was home to more than 3.6 million internally displaced and international partners in strengthening the knowledge people (IDPs). The figure has more than tripled since as base, and providing them with reliable information and a result of civil wars, localised conflicts and disasters. We analysis to support policy development and interventions recorded as many as 12.4 million IDPs in MENA as of the that help IDPs bring their displacement to a sustainable end of 2019, making the region the second-most affected end and re-establish fulfilling and productive lives. by internal displacement globally. If refugees and asylum seekers were to be added to the figure, the number of forcibly displaced people would come close to the popu- lations of Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Qatar combined.

Beyond the hard data, the increasingly chronic and protracted nature of displacement in MENA should be a serious cause for concern. Millions of IDPs a year have had to flee for a second and even a third time, creating a Alexandra Bilak downward spiral of vulnerability that only serves to further Director of IDMC prolong their displacement.

Few of the countries currently affected by displacement in MENA have policies that support IDPs’ protection, assistance and durable solutions. In those that do, imple- mentation has not been fast enough to cope with the growing challenges brought on by displacement. The spill- over effects of these crises on IDPs, host communities and countries’ broader social and economic wellbeing have not been comprehensively assessed, but it could easily be argued that an entire generation has been blighted and that the impacts of displacement on such a scale will stretch well into the future.

We are publishing a report dedicated to MENA for the first time, with the objective of taking stock of the scale of conflict displacement since the Arab Spring protests broke out. The report also examines disaster displacement in the region, something that has been overshadowed by the prevalence of conflict. It shows too how conflict and disasters are becoming increasingly intertwined, with significant implications for how peacebuilding, disaster risk reduction and durable solutions efforts need to be aligned

to support IDPs in putting an end to their displacement. Photo credit: NRC/Jordan 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Key 1 4 5 11

Ten years ago, the Arab Spring reshaped MENA’s political, Foreign interventions, the presence of numerous armed Disasters triggered at least 1.5 million new internal messages social and economic landscape. Political upheaval led to groups and the destruction of housing and basic services displacements in MENA over the past decade, more than civil wars that together triggered an average of 2.9 million in urban areas have all contributed to prolonging displace- half of them the result of floods. The region is mostly arid, new internal displacements a year, a third of the global ment. Greater political commitment from governments and when it rains poor soil absorption capacity and the lack figure, between 2010 and 2019. and the international community is needed to achieve of adequate drainage systems often cause riverine, flash peace and stability. The bombing and shelling of cities and urban floods. Our disaster displacement risk model must stop. It would considerably reduce internal displace- suggests that nearly 400,000 people in MENA could be ment and allow people to return, which is essential to displaced by riverine floods in any given year in the future. reactivating local economies, reconstruction and the achievement of durable solutions.

2 3 6 7 Failed peace deals and broken ceasefires extended the IDPs account for nearly 3% of MENA’s total population. By investing in better data on displacement associated The drivers and impacts of conflict and disaster displace- violence, making the region’s displacement among the At least another 7.8 million people had fled abroad as with disasters, including slow-onset events and the effects ment have become increasingly intertwined. Many IDPs most protracted in the world. About 12.4 million people refugees or asylum seekers by the end of 2019. The of climate change, countries can design more effective taking refuge from conflict and violence have been pushed were still living in internal displacement as a result of scale of both internal and cross-border displacement is disaster risk reduction, preparedness and recovery plans. into secondary or tertiary displacement by floods and land- conflict and violence at the end of 2019. Figures have unprecedented in some countries. Half of Syria’s pre-war slides. more than tripled in ten years, making MENA the second- population has been displaced at least once. most affected region after sub-Saharan Africa.

Al Hol camp in Hasakeh governorate in Syria is home to more than 70,000 people of which more than 90% are women and children,

Halldorsson/OCHA, 16 June 2019 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa 8 9 12 13 13 The economic impacts of displacement in MENA are Around 6.3 million women and girls were living in internal Identifying the practices, interventions and policy options Peacebuilding and disaster risk reduction are prerequi- among the heaviest in the world. We estimate that the displacement in MENA at the end of 2019. More than that have been successful in reducing displacement and sites for the region’s stability. Displaced people play a key average cost per person for a year of displacement is five million IDPs, and about 800,000 were over 60. Our displacement risk will help collectively move from address- role in this process, because only by supporting them in $623, nearly double the global average of $390. That initial disaggregated estimates provide a useful snapshot ing problems to finding and advancing long-term solutions. achieving durable solutions will governments and the inter- equates to an overall economic cost of nearly $8 billion, of how displacement affects different groups, but there national community be able to reignite economic activity 40 per cent of our global estimate. This represents a huge are persistent data gaps. These must be addressed, and in destroyed urban centres, rebuild the social fabric of additional burden for governments already struggling to investing in the capacity to collect, store and analyse data communities that have been torn apart, and achieve pros- provide basic services and maintain stability. beyond headcounts is imperative. Governments and the perity and wellbeing. In addressing the significant scale humanitarian community need data disaggregated by sex, and severity of internal displacement head-on, MENA age and other characteristics and that captures small-scale countries would be investing in no-regrets pathways displacement events. toward sustainable peace and development.

10 11

Governments also need information that allows them to Having reliable, timely and accurate data on the scale, assess the duration and chronic nature of displacement duration, risk and impacts of internal displacement will and how internal displacement relates to cross-border be a key step in breaking the vicious cycle of instabil- movements. Support for governments in developing and ity and vulnerability in the region. More evidence and a maintaining their monitoring systems would go a long way solid baseline on displacement, as well as strengthened toward meeting this challenge. technical, human and financial capacity to monitor the phenomenon, will be vital for bolstering political commit- ment and driving action. Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa cope with those events is severely diminished by years cope with those events is severely diminished by years set hazardssuchasfloods and storms.Theircapacityto such as desertification and drought, as wellassudden-on highly pronetodisasters,includingslow-onsetprocesses The reality of the MENAregionis complex. Countries are vulnerabilities andtrappingtheminpoverty. people intosecondarydisplacement,exacerbating their storms, andharshwinterconditionscontinuallypush protracted. IncountriessuchasSyria andYemen, floods, and secondarydisplacementcontributetomakingit however. Disasters,oftenoverlooked, alsotriggernew displacement cyclical and protracted in recent years, It isnotonlyinsecurityandconflictthathavemade situation ofpoliticalvolatility. localized ethnic and religious tensions, and an overall Lebanon foralongtimeasresultofforeigninterventions, has characterizedothercountrieslike Iraq,Palestine and little butwar. Ongoinginstability, conflictandviolence displacement camps or in informalurbanareas, knowing exile andwhoarestilllivinginprecariousconditions for peoplewhohavebeenforcedintodisplacementand hope for a better future has quickly turned into a nightmare nal displacementandrefugeeflows.Whatseemedtobe a humanitariancrisischaracterisedbyhighlevelsofinter- devastated bynearlyadecadeofconflictthathasdriven turmoil. Many, includingYemen, LibyaandSyria, are Ten yearslater, severalcountriesintheregionare and becameknownastheArabSpring. every countryintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica (MENA) inequality. Thewaveofproteststhenspreadacrossalmost against corruption,unemployment,policerepressionand of demonstrations followed, led mostly by young people, the policeconfiscatedhismerchandise. Severalweeks tables inSidiBouzidtown,Tunisia sethimselfonfireafter On 17December2010, ayoungvendoroffruitsandvege Introduction - - continue tokeep internallydisplacedpeople(IDPs)from Safety andsecurityissuesconstraintsonmovement more reliable data collection systems and platforms for to differentcontexts. Theseinclude thedevelopmentof across theregionthatcanbe extrapolated andadapted Not everythingisbleak,however. Goodpracticesalsoexist addressed. be ment, areamongthefactorsthat,asapriority, needto to assessthetruescopeandscaleofinternaldisplace- and limitedfunding,thelackofsolidbaselinedata opment, anddisasterriskreductioninitiatives,short-term of coherenceandcoordinationacrosshumanitarian,devel success ofcrisispreventionandresponsemeasures.Lack The highlevelsofdisplacementputintoquestionthe further instabilityanddisplacementrisk. tive impactsofdisplacementhavebecomethedrivers local economies.Itisalsoillustrativeofhowthenega returns. Thishasactedasabrake onthereactivationof urban infrastructureandunexploded ordnanceimpede achieving durablesolutions.Widespreaddestructionof disproportionately. and displacement,withwomenchildrenaffected and communitieshaveseentheirlivesdisruptedbywar mented becauseofpersistentinsecurity. Entirefamilies peacebuilding initiatives are still being poorly imple Disaster riskreduction,sustainabledevelopmentand achieved inmanycountriesduringthe1990sand2000s. up morethanfourpercentoftheregion's population. the totalpopulationofdisplacedpeoplecurrentlymake abroad, eitherasrefugeesorasylumseekers. Combined, Africa. Morethan7.8 millionpeoplehavesoughtrefuge second mostaffectedregiongloballyaftersub-Saharan across theMENAregionatendof2019, makingitthe in internaldisplacementasaresultofconflictandviolence been unprecedented. About 12.4 million people were living scale ofbothinternalandcross-borderdisplacementhas crises affectingtheMENAregion.Insomecountries, and oneofthemostvisiblenegativeimpacts Forced displacementhasbeenacommondenominator respond. infrastructure anderodedtheirabilitytoprepare of violence, which have damaged or destroyed their Conflict and violence have reversed development gains Conflict andviolencehavereverseddevelopmentgains 3

1

2 - - -

nexus between conflict,disastersanddisplacement. mendations for the next decade, taking into account the movements. Italsopresentsgoodpracticesandrecom- impacts, anditsrelationshipwithcross-borderreturn chronic natureofdisplacement,itseconomicandsocial in monitoring andreportinginthe region, includingthe past decade. Part 2discussesthecurrentchallenges ciated withconflict,violenceanddisastersduringthe the trendsandpatternsofinternaldisplacementasso The reportisdividedintwomainparts.Part 1presents regional andglobalrepercussions. as abasisforrenewedlookintoanoldchallengewith solutions tointernaldisplacementintheregion,itserves By unpackingthecurrentchallengesandpotential baseline for action on internal displacement in the region. displacement dynamics and provides amuch-needed MENA. It offers a unique insight intohistorical and current drivers, patternsandimpactsofinternaldisplacementin displacement, thefirstofitskind,delvesintoscale, The Middle East and North Africa report on internal About thisreport improve currentwaysofworking. countries, openingawindowofopportunitytore-thinkand these initiativeshavebeenledbygovernmentsinaffected helped IDPsputanendtotheirdisplacement.Someof returns andotherformsofdurablesolutionsthathave political dialogue;andthedevelopmentofpolicieson collaboration andinformationexchange; theopeningof Iason Athanasiadis/OCHA, 15September 2014 Winter compounded the already dire situation Winter compoundedthealready diresituation in an informal camp set up as a result of in aninformalcampsetupas a resultof displacement inDahuk,Iraq.

- 15 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 in theWorld Bankdataportal. isons withothersocialandeconomicindicatorsavailable regional divisionisalsoselectedinordertoallowcompar solely forthepurposesofillustrationandanalysis.The endorsement oracceptancebyIDMCandarepresented and designationsusedinthisreportdonotimplyofficial (West Bank and Gaza) and Yemen. Theboundaries, names Syria, Tunisia, theUnitedArabEmirates(UAE), Palestine non, Libya,Malta,Morocco, Oman,Qatar, SaudiArabia, Djibouti, Egypt,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait, Leba Bank's regionaldivision. This reportdefinestheMENAregionbasedon World About theregional breakdown 2019. people livingininternaldisplacementasof31December Total numberofIDPscorrespondstothetotal displaced duringtheyear. new displacementsdoesnotequalthenumberofpeople displaced morethanonce. Inthissense, thenumberof during theyear. Figuresincludeindividualswhohavebeen of internaldisplacementmovementstohavetaken place New displacementscorrespondtotheestimatednumber How to read thefigures 4 ItincludesAlgeria,Bahrain, 5

- - Eight years after the Libyan uprising and the downfall Eight yearsaftertheLibyanuprising andthedownfall of theGaddafiregime, thepathtowards peaceand stability remainselusiveandabout 451,000 people Giles Clarke/OCHA, January2019 remain internally displaced, remain internallydisplaced,

17 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Part 19

1Monitoring displacement over the last decade

People returning to the Old City of Mosul,

Tom Peyre-Costa/NRC, June 2018 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa of thekey factorsatplay. list is not exhaustive, but provides an overview of some and displacementintheregion asawhole. Thefollowing that explain thechangingdynamics of conflict,violence displacement trends,butthere arecross-cuttingfactors Each country has unique complexities that influence displacement whendisastersstrike. precarious shelters,makingthemvulnerabletosecondary been underminedasaresult.Manyrefugeesstilllivein cult economicsituations, and theircapacitytorespondhas increased byatleast1.3million. in Syria broke out their combined refugee population Palestinian refugeesfordecades,butaftertheconflict neighbouring countries.Jordan and Lebanon havehosted Several national crises have had aspill-over effect on (see Figure1). displacements recordedgloballyduringthelastdecade MENA accountedformorethanathirdofthenewconflict Iraq, Yemen andLibyaarethemostaffectedcountries. been asignificantincreaseininternaldisplacement. Syria, ics intheregion.Sinceitbegan in late2010, therehas about amajorshiftinconflictanddisplacementdynam- and evencenturies.TheArabSpring,however, brought economic andpoliticalfactorsthatdatebackdecades many countries are rooted in a complex setof social, Chronic vulnerabilityandtheriskofdisplacementin solutions. displacement andpreventIDPsfromachievingdurable curity andalackofbasicservicescontinuetotriggernew the presenceofexplosive remnantsofwar, overallinse- the widespread destructionof housing and infrastructure, of 2019. Abroadrangeoffactors,includingarmedconflict, people were displacedbyconflict and violence attheend compared with149,000 fordisasters.Around12.4million an annualaverageof2.9millionnewdisplacements, displacement inMENAbetween2010and2019, with Conflict andviolencetriggeredmostoftheinternal Violence Conflict and 6 Bothcountriesfacediffi- 7

the highest number of new displacements in the world that the highestnumberofnewdisplacements intheworldthat pushing about30,000 peopleintodisplacement. to keep control ofTripoli andrecaptureTarhuna asaresult, in early2020tocounterthatsupport.TheGNAwasable the UN-backed Government of the National Accord (GNA) try. Army (LNA),whichcontrolstheeasternpartsofcoun- provide militarysupporttoKhalifaHaftar’s LibyanNational shows that Russia, the UAE andEgypthavecontinuedto Despite anarmsembargoinplacesince2011,evidence renewed fightinginvolvingadditionalactors. ventions. Thefailedpeaceprocessof2019culminatedin increasing numberofdirectandindirectforeigninter of thousands abroad. an estimated500,000 peoplefledinternallyandtens to humanrightsviolationsbyMuammarGaddafi’s forces, When NATO forcesintervenedinLibya2011 response the governoratesofDara’a, Quneitra,HamaandIdlib. mass displacementswerereportedduringoffensivesin There they faced dire humanitarian conditions. to theshrinkingareasheldbynon-statearmedgroups. 2018, hundredsofthousandspeoplefled,manythem ian law. Asplacesunder siegefellbetween2016and bombing andotherviolationsofinternationalhumanitar- The offensiveswereaccompaniedbyindiscriminate term siege, suchaseasternGhoutaandAleppo. forces also captured places that had been under long- into increasinglysmallerandcrowdedareas. him to win most of it back, pushing non-state armed groups large swathesofterritory, andtheRussianairforcehelped of forces.Basharal-Assad’s governmenthadbeenlosing ist groups.Thisrepresentedamajorshiftinthedistribution Islamic State inIraqandtheLevant (ISIL)andotherextrem Russia intervenedmilitarilyinSyria in2015tofightthe the phenomenonmoreprotracted. more complex, triggeringnewdisplacementandmaking tions continuetoplayaroleinmakingtheseconflicts Be itthroughfinancialormilitarysupport,suchinterven- directly orindirectlyinanumberoftheregion’s conflicts. An increasingnumberofforeignactorshaveintervened Foreign interventions tion’s entryintoYemen’s conflictin2015 gavethecountry The intensifiedfightingthat followedtheSaudi-ledcoali- 12 Turkey providedmilitaryassistancetotheforcesof 11 The country has experienced an 8 Assad’s 9 13 Similar Similar

10 - - Countries areshown onlywhenthetotalnew displacementsvaluebetween 2010-2019exceeds 20,000. Figure 1:NewdisplacementsbyconflictinMENA(2010-2019) 1.6m |77% Syria 252,000 |12% Yemen 150,000 |7% Iraq 70,000 |3% Libya 15,000 |1% Egypt 490 Palestine 2.1m |62% Syria 659,000 |19% Iraq 156,000 |5% Libya 1,600 Palestine 2.2m |52% Iraq 1.1m |26% Syria 501,000 |12% Palestine 100,000 |2% Yemen 4,700 Egypt 2.4m |94% Syria 132,000 |5% Yemen 12,000 |1% Palestine 176,000 Yemen 600 Palestine 478,000 |14% Yemen 341,000 |8% Libya 177,000 4.2 m 3.4 m 2.5 m 2.5 2.1 m 2010 2016 2019 2018 2012 2014 2017 2013 2015 2011 2.6 m m 4.5 m 4.7 3.5 m 839,000 1 million-2,999,999 3 millionormore 0-999,999 398,000|16% 498,000 |59% 156,000 |19% 175,000 |21% 104,000|4% 100,000 |2% 215,000 |8% 160,000 |3% 20,000 |1% 29,000 |1% 2.9m |65% 3.5m |99% 2.2m |46% 1.3m |28% 1.8m |72% 8,000 |1% 1.4m |31% 1.1m |24% Palestine Palestine Palestine Palestine Palestine 12,000 Yemen Yemen Yemen Yemen Yemen 1,500 8,400 Egypt Egypt 1,800 Libya Libya Libya Libya Syria Syria Syria Syria Syria 1,100 1,100 700 740 Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq 21 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 These examples areonlyafractionofthecomplex setof bunkers whiletheywaitforthefightingtoend. other places,suchaseastern Ghouta,peoplelivein move tosaferneighbourhoodswithinthesamecity. In In somecases,suchasthebattlefor Mosul in Iraq,people These urbanconflictshavespecificdisplacementpatterns. to people's return. water mainsandotherinfrastructurecreatemajorbarriers destruction ofhomes,schools,hospitals,electricityplants, lative effects of the disruption of basic services and the fire displacedhundredsofthousandspeople. Thecumu Hodeida inYemen andRaqqa inSyria, airstrikes andmortar times higherthaninnon-urbanareas. The deathtollfromurbanconflictinIraqand Syria iseight displacement globally. second highestnumberofpeoplelivingininternal remain, sohigh.Theyalsoexplain whyMENAhasthe explain why new displacementfigures have been,and damage anddestructionofhousingbasicservices many clashesinmajorurbanareasandthewidespread common acrosstheregionduringlastdecade. The homes andofIDPsfleeingmonthsurbansiegebecame airstrikes, of people living in damaged and destroyed Pictures ofentirecitiesdestroyedbybombingand Urban warfare solutions forbothIDPsandrefugees. to advancepoliticaldialogue, peacebuildinganddurable continue tofuelconflictinMENAandovershadowefforts national, regionalandglobalgeopoliticaldynamicsthat in 2019. many ofthenewdisplacementsinsouthcountry has causedfurtherpoliticalfragmentationandtriggered Council, themainseparatistorganisationinYemen. This provided militarysupporttotheSouthernTransitional have becomemoreelusive. TheUAE hasmorerecently rated as a result,and their prospects for durablesolutions The livingconditionsofthosedisplacedhavedeterio the destructionofmanyhomesandinfrastructure. years. Theyhavecausedthebulkofciviliancasualtiesand ued totriggerunprecedenteddisplacementinsubsequent year. 14 Thecoalition’s bombingsandairstrikes have contin 15

17 16 In cities such as Incitiessuchas 18

- - - ing, landandpropertyrights.AstheSyrian government Urban conflict also creates challenges in terms of hous- system to undermine groups he considered too powerful system toundermine groupsheconsidered toopowerful over thecountry. Fromasmall tribehimself, heusedthe Gaddafi usedLibya's tribal structuretoasserthiscontrol recent years. in the patterns of displacement and return movements in role inthewayconflictandviolencehaveunfolded dynamics for centuries. They have played an important minorities haveinfluencedsocial,politicalandeconomic ethnic andreligiousminorities.Theaffiliationsofthese three maingroups,MENAishometoawidevarietyof Apart fromSunniArabs,Kurds andShiaArabs, the affiliations Ethnic, tribal andreligious again. settlements uninhabitable, leavingthefamilieshomeless areas. More recent floods have rendered most of these shelter insubstandardhousingotherflood-prone 2020, manypeoplealreadydisplacedbyconflictsought mining their resilience. When flooding hit Sana’a in August areas, peoplecanbeforcedtomoveagain,furtherunder Disasters addanothercomplication.Whentheyhiturban reconstruction process. about howIDPsandothergroupswillbeincludedinthe property laws have also been passed that raise questions authority andrewarditssupporters.Newhousing,land displacement arebeingusedtoconsolidatethestate’s begin. Evidencesuggests,however, thatsegregationand retakes controloftownsandcities,reconstructionwill prolonging thedisplacementofformerinhabitants. yearsafterthewarsend, expensive andwilltake many willbeextremely solutions. Thereconstructionof cities ing andrecoveryimpedeIDPs’ achievementofdurable concluded orstabilised,however, thedifficultiesofrebuild Some urbanconflictsareongoing.Wheretheyhave tions moreremote. fuels inequalityandmakes theprospectsfordurablesolu Aleppo andBaghdad.Thisrupturingofsocialcohesion ously peacefulcoexistence shatteredincitiesincluding violations. Residents weresegregatedandtheirprevi potentially engenderingdiscriminationandhumanrights control byexpelling political,ethnicandreligiousgroups, Warring partieshavealsosoughttoexert territorial 22

19 21

20

- - - - Allah launched an attack on the internationally-rec Kurdish origin. repatriated toanareawhich is homemostlytopeopleof from otherethnicbackgrounds arenowreluctanttobe Others fledacrossborders. internal displacements, mostly from Kurdish border towns. could bereturned.Thistriggeredmorethan220,000 military interventionsinthearea. established apeacecommitteetopreventfurtherSaudi ate, localtribeshave helpedcurtailpoliticalviolenceand prevented escalationinsomeplaces.InMahrahgovernor The traditionoftribesresolvingtensions,however, hasalso inhabited byadifferenttribalcommunity. people frommovingthefrontlinestosaferlocations in thesouth. This increased protection concerns for northerners living Lahj andAbyangovernoratesexpelling themtoTaiz. began roundinguppeopleofnorthernorigininAden, ognised governmentinAugust 2019, southernmilitias to thesouthernregion,andviceversa. IDPs perceivedasnorthernershavebeendeniedentry as the conflict continues and resources are depleted. Discrimination hasflaredbetweentribalgroupsin Yemen Syria’s Christiansdidsobetween2011and2015. abroad thanmovetodisplacementcamps.Nearlyhalfof that mightproviderefuge, makingthemmorelikely toflee Alawites, Christiansdidnothavecommunityortribalties fled internally or across borders. Unlike the Sunnis and and ethnic affiliations also determined whether people their communitieswerealreadyestablished.Religious fled forprotectionandassistancetocoastalareaswhere When thewarbroke out,Alawitesandotherminorities enced displacement patterns in the country’s conflict. Syria’s religiousandethniccompositionhasalsoinflu- kept allbutafewTawerghans fromreturning. infrastructure andapervasivefeelingofinsecurityhave destructionofthetownandits ments, the deliberate for its support to Gaddafi. people, wasforciblydisplacedascollectivepunishment 2011, theentirepopulationofTawergha, ofaround40,000 of thenearbytownMisrata. ple, heusedtheTawergha tribetomitigatetheinfluence while building strategic alliances with others. ber 2019 to create a “safe zone” where Syrian refugees too. Turkey intervenedmilitarilyinnorthernSyria inOcto- Ethnic andreligiousaffiliationsinfluencereturnpatterns 29 33 Fear of discrimination may also prevent Fearofdiscriminationmayalsoprevent

25 Despite reconciliation agree- 32 Many refugees and IDPs ManyrefugeesandIDPs 24 Once he was ousted in Oncehewasoustedin 31

30 28

After Ansar 23 26 For exam- 27 - - religious background also playsaroleinhowtheyinte- durable solutions. grate intohostareasandwhethertheyareabletoachieve ians inviolationofinternationallaw. widely condemnedforcarryingoutattacks againstcivil- Al-Qaeda, ISILandgroupsrelatedtothemhavebeen recent years, evolving into organised military structures. non-state groupshavebecomeincreasinglyradicalisedin affiliations orgovernmentandforeigninterventions,many Whether becauseofpoliticalandsocialdivisions,religious Extremism of movementandaccesstoservices. as affiliated with ISIL, face restrictions on their freedom religious identity. Sunnifamilies,whoareoftenperceived controls havebeenimposedaccordingtoIDPs’ ethnicand fragile socialcohesion. and conflict and displacement has weakened the country's ent ethno-religiousandtribalbackgrounds arecommon, In neighbouring Iraq, rivalries among communities of differ and 70percentofthehomesinarea. has destroyedupto80percentofthepublicinfrastructure June 2020, butthesituationinSinjarremainsdifficult.ISIL most of them living in camps. Returns have increased since 200,000 Yazidis werestilldisplacedasof August 2020, there were either displaced, captured or killed. Yazidi minority in2014,allofthe400,000 peopleliving When ISIL attacked the Sinjar area of Iraq inhabited by the further north. forced nearlyallofthemtoflee Kurdish-held areas population before ISIL took over, but the latter’s offensive country. Kurds representedabout20percent ofRaqqa’s trolled territoriesandseekprotectioninotherpartsofthe and religiousminoritieshavebeenforcedtofleeISIL-con- sectarian divide. and Iraq,itsemergenceinSyria hascreatedadeep ISIL has committed ethniccleansingandgenocide in Syria borders. to masspopulationmovementsbothwithinandacross of brutalityassociatedwithsuchattacks havecontributed 39

38 36 Non-Sunni Muslims and other political Non-SunniMuslimsandotherpolitical 34 Movement restrictions and other Movementrestrictionsandother 37 Theextreme levels 35 IDPs’ ethnicand 41 40 More than More than - 23 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 achieving durablesolutionsbecomemoreremote. and impedethepossibilityofpeace, IDPs’ chancesof launched inresponse. Asmilitiasaggravatesocialdivisions gered displacement,ashaveforeignmilitaryinterventions attacks andrepeatedhumanrightsviolationshavetrig and Hadramaut. their positionsinthesoutherngovernoratesofAl-Bayda a burgeoningwareconomytoextend andconsolidate tage ofthesecurityvacuum,growingsectarianismand other armedgroupsaffiliatedwithISILhavetaken advan- In Yemen, al-QaedaintheArabianPeninsula (AQAP) and 42 Figures are hard to obtain, but armed Figuresarehardtoobtain,butarmed 43

- Jabalya refugee camp, Emad Badwan,29July2014 Injured manstandinginhisdestroyed housein

25 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Syria Figure 2:NewdisplacementsandtotalnumberofIDPsbyconflictviolencein Syria (2010-2019) has beendisplacedinternallyoracrossborders.Asthe and morethanhalfofthecountry’s pre-warpopulation The conflict's toll on civilians has been unprecedented, of thecountry’s territory. non-state armed groups that have occupied large swathes President Assadisstillinpower, fightingagainstseveral never achieveditsgoalofchangingthegovernmentand 2011 (see the Syria Spotlight, p. 60). The civil movement among the underlying factors that led tocivil unrest in and thesteadydeclineofcountry’s economywere but evidenceshowsthatanextended periodofdrought The ArabSpringwasthemaintriggerofSyria’s conflict, Syria Millions 0 6 5 2 8 4 3 7 1 433,000 2010 600,000 156,000 2011 unrest violent turn into Protests 2012 2.4m 3m 2013 of ISIL Rise 6.5m 3.5m 2014 7.6m 1.1m

living under siege for months or in some cases even years living undersiegeformonthsorinsomecasesevenyears areas atsomepointbetween2012and2018. Around 2.5millionSyrians weretrappedinbesieged inhabitants arenowIDPs. has increased by 39 per cent and about 70 per cent of its large inflowofpeople. ThepopulationofIdlib, for example, their populationsrespectively. Othershaveexperienced a have beendepopulated,losing53,27and28percentof governorates, suchasRaqqa, AlHasakeh andDeir-ez-Zor, significant impactonthecountry’s demography. Some Internal andcross-borderdisplacementhashada abroad. the world.Around5.6millionSyrian refugeeswereliving were livingininternaldisplacement,thehighestfigure conflict entereditstenthyear, around6.5millionpeople 2015 conflict the enters Russia 6.6m 1.3m 44

number intheworld IDPs thehighest inSyria, There 6.5 million around are New Displacements 2016 by GoS of Aleppo Re-capture 6.3m 2.1m 45 2017 2.9m 6.8m from ISIL of Raqqa Re-capture

2018 & Quneitra on Dara’a oƒensive GoS 1.6m 6.1m Number ofIDPs 46 2019 on Idlib oƒensives GoS Several 6.5m People 1.8m on recordworldwide. whole bytheendof2014,highestend-of-yearfigure 2014. Therewere7.6 millionIDPsacross thecountryasa Jaish al-Fatah,whichtookcontrolofIdlibgovernoratein Islamist groups,givingrisetoaloosecoalitionknownas The Syrian opposition began to be overtaken by radical 2.3 millionin2016 and2.9millionin2017. Thegovernment displacements. Around1.3million wererecordedin2015, over thenext twoyears,leadingtoanotherincreaseinnew Government forcescontinued tomake territorialgains completely depopulatedduringtheoffensive. from Jaish al-Fatah. The eastern part of the city was almost in 2015and2016,includingSyria’s secondcityofAleppo of Russia,theSyrian armyrecapturedkey urbancentres gered new waves ofdisplacement.With military support changed thebalanceofpoweronground.Italsotrig- regional economicandgeopoliticalinterests.Thisnotonly conflict thatyear, motivatedbythefightagainstISIL and to non-statearmedgroupsby2015.Russiaenteredthe The governmenthadlostmostofthenationalterritory ez Zor, AlHasakeh andHomsgovernorates. sands ofpeoplefromtheirhomes,mostlyinRaqqa, Deir attacks andthewaragainstitdrovehundredsofthou- airstrikes againstthegroup. Thecombination ofISIL This promptedtheUSandfiveArabcountriestolaunch and theoccupationofaboutathirdSyrian territory. the establishmentofa“caliphate” inRaqqa inmid-2014 of ISILacrossIraqandSyria. Thegroup’s influenceledto reached fullstrengthin2014withtheterritorialexpansion Islamist movementsbecamemoreprominentin2013and figure oftheconflict. displacements wererecordedin2013,thehighestannual than3.5million to supporttheAssadgovernment. More lah andtheIranianRevolutionary GuardCorpsdeployed opposition seizedswathesofterritoryduring2012,Hezbol inIdlib andHomsgovernoratesin2011. the governmentledto156,000newdisplacements,mostly intense clashesbetweenarmedoppositiongroupsand increase in internal displacement. Bombardments and The firstthreeyearsofthewarbroughtanunprecedented the areainamatterofweeks. 400,000 peopleweretrapped,morethan158,000fled lifted, manypeoplefled.IneasternGhouta,whereabout drinking water, food and medicines. Once the sieges were were subjectedtodireconditions,includingshortagesof 50

47

48 AstheSyrian 49 51

- The lastthreeyearshavebeencharacterisedbygovern- volatile securitysituation. assistance whiletheyendure economichardshipanda habitable. Returnees struggle to access humanitarian many areasofthegovernorate aredestroyedandunin- sive inIdlibreturnedbetweenMarchandJuly2020, but More than 200,000 people displaced by the recent offen The situation in Syria is critical, and IDPs face acute needs. groups. camps in shrinking areas controlled by non-state armed months. Most of those displaced fled to overcrowded norate triggerednearlyamilliondisplacementsoverthree early 2020, when the government offensive on Idlib gover This wasthelargestdisplacementeventofwarupto displacements, most of them over a period of two weeks. and Quneitragovernoratestriggeredmorethan285,000 been record flows. The June 2018 offensive on Dara’a that arestillaffectedbyconflict,however, therehave ment hasbeenreducedtoafewgovernorates.Inareas southern and north-eastern parts of the country. Displace ment offensivesagainstnon-statearmedgroupsinthe displacements, allbutemptyingthecity. and September2017ledtomore than300,000 new The battletorecaptureRaqqa betweenNovember2016 ing andshelling,hundredsofthousandsciviliansfled. the Syrian territoryithadoccupiedunderintensebomb- but it did not hold for long. As ISIL retreated from mostof and non-Islamistarmedgroupsagreedaceasefirein2017, Quneitra Dara’a this mapdonotimplyocialendorsementoracceptancebyIDMC. The boundariesandthenamesshowndesignationsusedon 54 Hama Homs Idleb Capital city Lebanon Damascus

Aleppo Jordan 55 Mostaectedareas

Eastern Ghouta Saudi Arabia Raqqa Turkey Iraq 52

Al Hasakeh Deir ezZor 53 - - -

27 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 achieve durablesolutions. to gobeforetheconflictisresolvedandIDPsareable interference offoreignactorsmeanthatthereisstillfar shrinking economy, unavailabilityofbasicservicesand in thefirstsixmonthsof2020. The priceofatypicalfoodbasket increased200percent on cross-borderactivitiesimposedbecauseofCovid-19. The situation has been furtheraggravated by restrictions since November2019. hygiene productshavereachednewhighseachmonth power. Prices of basic necessities such as food, water and of theSyrian poundhaserodedpeople’s purchasing der movementwithTurkey, andthesteepdevaluation Syria areheavilyreliantonimportedgoodsandcross-bor 2020. crisis andtougherUSsanctionsputinplaceJune The countryalsohastodealwithadeepeningeconomic held bynon-statearmedgroups. torturing and forcibly disappearing civilians from territories umented recordofgovernmentforcesarbitrarilyarresting, villages thegovernmenthasretaken. Thereisawell-doc- IDPs havealsoreportedbeingafraidtoreturntownsand means thathalfofthecommunitiesareshortwater. Damage toinfrastructureandthehighpriceoftrucking Idlib arereportedlyunabletoaffordessentialfooditems. per centofthecommunitieswhereIDPshavereturnedin and services as well as ongoing insecurity. Families in 75 reconstruction is complicated by the high price ofmaterials This hasledtoovercrowdinginshelters,andrepair 58 ThishashadasevereimpactonIDPs. 61 Theprevalentinsecurity, 57 59 Markets in 60 56 -

Idlib hoststhelargestnumber of IDPsinSyria asof 2020. HFOproject/OCHA,January 2020 29 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Iraq Figure 3: New displacements and total number of IDPs by conflict and violence in Iraq (2010-2019) New displacementsandtotalnumberofIDPsbyconflictviolenceinFigure3:Iraq(2010-2019) Syria (2010-2019) one oftheworld's mostacutehumanitariancrises. ter, marked byunprecedentedlevelsofdisplacementand played arole. in Samarra,oneofthecountry's holiestShiashrines,also ing theFebruary2006bombingofal-Askarimosque Sectarian violenceandthepersecutionofminoritiesfollow in 2010, mostofthemdisplacedduringtheUSinvasion. There were already 2.8 million IDPs across the country the waragainstISIL. dictatorship, conflict, a foreign invasion and more recently in sectarianandethnictensionsfedbydecadesof Iraq hasalonghistoryofinternaldisplacement,rooted Iraq Millions 2.5 0.5 3.5 1.5 0 2 3 1 2010 2.8m 62 The2011ArabSpringopenedanewchap 8,000 2011 2.6m from Iraq withdrawal troops US 2012 2.1m 12,000 2013 insurgency of Sunni fication Intensi- 2.1m 63

2014 Sinjar Crisis control; under ISIL's Fallujah Fall of 2.2m 3.3m - - recorded, mostlyfromareasthatfellunderISILcontrol. any pointinthelastdecade. Asmanyas2.2millionwere recording morenewdisplacementsduringtheyearthanat Mosul inJune, andtheSinjarcrisisinAugust, ledtoIraq ISIL’s takeover ofFallujainJanuary2014,itsoffensiveon in June2014. gains, ISILclaimedpartsofIraqandSyria asits“caliphate” mass displacement. (ISIL) inApril2013andlaunchedattacks thattriggered changed its name to Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant in Iraq2006,expanded duringthisperiod.Thegroup Islamic State inIraq,whichhadevolvedfromal-Qaeda 2011 to12,000in2013. number ofnewdisplacementsincreasedfrom8,000in deepened andtheSunniinsurgencyintensified. ity increasedduring2012and2013,sectariandivisions necessarily linked tosectarian affiliation,butasinstabil- quickly across the country. Theinitialprotestswerenot forces cracked down, sparking violence that spread more democracyandeconomicopportunity, government As people took to the streets in February 2011 to demand As peopletooktothestreetsinFebruary2011demand 2015 by ISIL of Ramadi Capture 3.3m 1.1m New Displacements 66 2016 ISIL from Mosul to retake O‡ensive 3.0m 0.7m 65 Having consolidated its territorial Havingconsolidateditsterritorial 2017 2.6m 1.4m 150,000 2018 2.0m Number ofIDPs 104,000 2019 1.6m 64 The The 67

a wayofdefendingthecountry, andthenext twoyears 2016. ing around220,000 aftertherecaptureofFallujainJune in theAnbar, Baghdad,Kirkuk andNinewagovernorates. IDPs inthecountryasofend oftheyear, mostofthem year. had gonebacktotheirhomeareasbytheendof the birthofISILinsurgency. About470,000 people Significant returnmovementsbeganin2015,thefirstsince in 2015and660,000 in2016. but theconflictstilltriggered1.1 millionnew displacements and Tikrit.Therewerefewerdisplacementsthanin2014, year, retakingkey areasincludingDiyala,Falluja,Ramadi Iraqi forcesalsomadeother significant gainsduringthe in townsandcitiesNinewagovernorate. an area south of the city with several displacement camps people weredisplacedalongtheso-calledMosulcorridor, had seized two years earlier. By the end of 2016, 300,000 500,000 peoplefledtheirhomesinAnbargovernorate. significant offensives in terms ofdisplacement. More than with ISIL capturing the city in May, was among the most The Ramadi crisis, whicheruptedinApril2015andended security forcesandPMFagainstISIL. were marked by continuous fighting between the Iraqi group. clerk proclaimed a fatwa to take up arms against the Mobilisation Forces(PMF)afterIraq’s mostseniorShia threat ISILposed.About50ofthemformedthePopular Many militiasgrewin2014thefaceofimmense and Colombia. the countryhadthirdhighestfiguregloballyafter Syria Commission ofInquiryonSyria. trated byISILthatwererecognisedasgenocidetheUN especially theYazidis, whohavesurvivedattacks perpe- enslavement ofwomen. destruction ofproperty, forcedmarriagesandthesexual men. These communities fled massacres, abductions, the including Christians, Shia Muslims, Yazidis, Kurds and Turk ISIL targetedcertainreligiousandethniccommunities, ber 2016andwaslaunchedtoretake Mosul,whichISIL The largestoffensiveofthewar, however, beganinOcto- people livingindisplacementasof the endof the year, for nearly20percentoftheworld’s total.With3.3million number ofnewconflictdisplacementsinIraqaccounted 75 76 Aboutamillionreturnedthefollowingyear, includ- 71 Therewere, however, stillmorethanthree million The prime minister officially recognised PMF as TheprimeministerofficiallyrecognisedPMF 70 68 They still suffer the impacts, Theystillsuffertheimpacts, 74

69 By December 2014, the ByDecember2014,the 73 72 77 -

Ramadi against acommonenemyis over. disputes haverepeatedlyresurfaced oncethestruggle a reminder of Iraq's complexity, in which longstanding disputed areasbytheendofOctober. government restoredcontrolofKirkukandmostthe prompted Iraqiforcestomoveintothecity. Thefederal in September2017, however, rekindledtensionsand referendum inoverwhelmingfavourofindependence in 2017collaborationwiththeIraqimilitary. AKurdish vacuum inKirkuksince2014,ultimatelydefeatingISIL tance oftheiroilfields. Kurdish forceshadfilled asecurity simmering for a long time, in part because of the impor- government overthestatusoftheseareashadbeen Tensions betweenBaghdadandtheKurdistan regional ten monthslater. but about94,000peoplewerereportedasstilldisplaced 184,000 newdisplacements.Manyonlylastedafewdays, declaration ofISIL's defeat. retaking ofMosulinDecember2017ledtotheofficial ISIL strongholds,especiallyinNinewagovernorate. The gency. Mostweretriggeredbyoffensivesagainstthe last the highestfiguresincebeginningofISILinsur- there wasanincreaseinnewdisplacementsto1.4million, The number of IDPs continued to decline in 2017, but governorates fromKurdish toIraqiforcestriggeredabout disputed areasofDiyala,Erbil,NinewaandSalahal-Din Clashes inOctober2017overthehandoverofKirkukand this mapdonotimplyo cialendorsementoracceptancebyIDMC. The boundariesandthenamesshowndesignationsusedon Sinjar Capital city Saudi Arabia Syria 79

Baghdad Mostaectedareas 78

81 Mosul

Iran 80 This came as Thiscameas Falluja Diyala Tikrit Kirkuk 31 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Only one per cent of applications had been accepted and Only one per cent of applications had been accepted and and receivingcompensationislengthycomplicated. initiative's implementation, however, becauseapplyingfor injuries and deaths causedbyISIL. It hasalsoofferedcompensationfordamagedproperty, phases ofreturn,andreturngrants. transport to areas of origin, in-kind assistance inthe initial achieve returnsbyfocusingonmaterialsupport,including support IDPsandreturneesinrecentyears.Ithassoughtto The governmenthasalsomadeconsiderableeffortsto returns thatarevoluntary, safe, dignifiedandsustainable. in thecountryhaveincreasinglyfocusedonsupporting Humanitarian anddevelopmentorganisationsoperating and 1.6millionin2019. IDPs inIraqfellfrom2.6million2017to22018 of themostintenseconflictsthiscentury. encouragement andpeople’s resilienceinthefaceofone displacements eachyearsince, reflectinggovernment ued toreturnhome. Returns haveoutnumberednew As theconflictrecededinlate2017, peoplecontin 85 84 Gaps remain in the Gapsremaininthe 82 The number of Thenumberof 83 -

All returnees are eligible for grants, but budget shortfalls All returneesareeligibleforgrants,butbudgetshortfalls areas ofdisplacement. efforts toidentifytheirneedssotheycanintegratein returning, andtheyalsorequiresupport,includinggreater returns issimilarlylimited.ManyIDPshavenointentionof ciliation andotherinitiativesnecessaryforsustainable them. Supportforlivelihoods,infrastructurerepair, recon- means onlyarelativelysmallproportionhavereceived those perceivedtobeaffiliatedwithISIL. in community acceptance of some people, particularly tions havebeenblocked, andtherehavebeenproblems difficult tomake returns sustainable. Returnstosomeloca insecurity andinstabilityinareasoforiginoftenmakes it returns areneitherfeasiblenorpreferable. Destruction, ing alternativesolutionstoprotracteddisplacementwhen There have also been difficulties in identifying and support is essentialinhelpingIDPsachievedurablesolutions. none paidasofJanuary2020, thoughsuchcompensation 88 87

86 - - between locations. the mobility ofreturnees andIDPsseeking to move Measures tocontaintheCovid-19pandemichaverestricted other. Iraqi territorytoconducttargetedattacks againsteach and tensionsbetweentheUSIran,whichhaveused There havealsobeenconflictsinneighbouringcountries ian targetstriggerednewandsecondarydisplacements. and small-scale attacks against both government and civil Abdul Mehdi in November. Spring and led to the resignation of the prime minister Adel in October2019. TheseechoedthedemandsofArab ity ledtoanewwaveoflargeanti-governmentprotests Persistent socioeconomicdifficultiesandpoliticalinstabil three years. 70 percentofwhomhadbeendisplacedformorethan of origin. This complicated the situation for many IDPs, 2019 aspartofitsefforttoreturnallIDPstheirplaces the governmentstillbeganclosinganumberofcampsin The paceofreturnshasslowedinthepasttwoyears,but 91

89

92 In some instances, the measures and Insomeinstances,themeasuresand 90 Insecurity persisted in 2020 Insecurity persisted in 2020 - - lenges thatIDPsmayface. Butmoreimportantly, itwillbe central foraddressingtheimmediateandlong-termchal- and reducinginternaldisplacementinthecountry. critical to galvanize the progress made so far in addressing oping anationaldurablesolutionsplan. under thedirectionofPrimeMinister, iscurrentlydevel- effects on hostcommunities. conditions. Therealsohavebeenimportantspill-over in urbanandperi-urbanareaswheretheyfacedifficult to establishlivelihoodsandincreasedtheirvulnerabilities secondary displacements.TheyhavemadeithardforIDPs the closure of camps havealso triggered unanticipated A displaced woman carrying a mattress in the muddy A displacedwomancarryinga mattressinthemuddy alleys ofHamamalHalilcamp inIraq.Withoutsafe and increased vulnerabilities unanticipated secondarydisplacements The closure of camps hastriggered Iraqis aremostlikely tospendwinteroutside their and sustainablereturns,the1.6 milliondisplaced homes. Tom Peyre-Costa/NRC, December2018 93 The Ministry of Planning, The Ministry of Planning, 94 The plan will be Theplanwillbe

33 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Yemen Figure 4:NewdisplacementsandtotalnumberofIDPsbyconflictviolencein Yemen (2010-2019) prevented themfromdoingso. to flee, butphysical,economicandsocialobstacleshave the HornofAfrica. were refugeesandasylumseekers in2019, mostofthemin cross-border movements.Fewerthan71,000Yemenis region, thesituationinYemen hasnottriggeredlarge-scale itarian assistance. nearly 80percentofthepopulationinneedhuman- The crisisinYemen isoneoftheworld’s mostacute, with Yemen as oftheend2019. Unlike othermajorconflictsinthe 12 percentofthepopulation,wereinternallydisplaced Millions 2.5 0.5 3.5 1.5 0 2 4 3 1 226,000 2010 176,000 96 95 Many more people may have wanted Manymorepeoplemayhavewanted Around3.6millionpeople, orabout 464,000 175,000 2011 is ousted president unrest, the violent turn into Protests 385,000 97 132,000 2012 instability and more government Transitional

307,000 20,000 2013 334,000 100,000 2014 Allah by Ansar of Sana’a Capture widespread politicalunrest,instabilityandviolencetrig- AQAP tookadvantageofsocialdivisionstomorphinto south, tribalmilitiasandjihadistmovementsaffiliatedwith Non-state armedgroupsexploited thesituation.In the stagewassetforasecondwaveofconflict. tile. Hadi’s ruledisappointedpartsofthepopulation,and home. the conflictanddisplacement,somepeoplereturned national policyonIDPs.Thiswasaccompaniedbyalullin a Abdrabbuh MansurHadi,tookofficein2012andenacted A transitionalgovernmentledbythevice-president, Al-Bayda andDhamargovernorates. gered about175,000newdisplacements,mostlyinSana’a, lah Saleh,wasoustedafter22yearsofrule. during the Arab Springwhen the president,Ali Abdul in 2004,but the situation worsened considerably in 2011 and displacementaffectednorthernpartsofthecountry economic andsocialtensionsdivisions.Violence The conflicthasitsrootsinlong-standingpolitical, 2015 coalition the Arab ment of Involve- 2.5m 2.2m 100 Theoverallpoliticalsituation,however, wasvola New Displacements 478,000 2016 2m 160,000 2017 2m 252,000 99 2018 Hudaydah on Oƒensive 2.3m

Number ofIDPs 98 That year Thatyear 398,000 101 2019 in Marib oƒensive Renewed 3.6m

- - trated in a few areas of the south. It remains to be seen trated inafewareasofthesouth. Itremainstobeseen have returnedhome. Thisdecrease, however, wasconcen IDPs in2016.Morethanamillion peoplewerebelievedto south, ledtoaconsiderable reductioninthenumberof A relativestabilisationoftheconflict,especiallyin period werestilllivingindisplacementattheendof2019. overwhelming majority of those displaced during this ment acrossthecountrybyendofyear. Taiz. More than 2.5 million people were living in displace- reported ineverygovernorate, withthehighestfiguresin as manyinSyria andIraqcombined.Displacementwas 2015, thehighestfigureinworldthatyearandalmost About 2.2millionnewdisplacementswerereportedin of goods. services and crippled infrastructure vital for theprovision The bombingsdisruptedmarkets, educationandhealth severely affectingcitiessuchasHodeida, Taiz andAden. destroyed housing and infrastructureonabroad scale, led coalition used heavy weapons and airstrikes that This openedanewchapterinYemen’s war. TheSaudi- state theoustedgovernment. launched amilitarycampaigninMarchtodefendandrein response, acoalitionofArabstatesledbySaudiArabia ued tomovesouth,reachingtheoutskirtsofAden.In The situation reached a peak in 2015 as Ansar Allah contin experienced significantdisplacementaswell. hold. TheneighbouringHajjahandAmrangovernorates displaced from Sa’ada governorate, Ansar Allah’s strong- in displacement at the end of the year. A third of them were the pre-transition period, with about 334,000 people living number of IDPs returned roughly to where it had been in ment. These developmentshadamarked effectondisplace Sana’a, forcingHaditofleeAden. sity, andinlate2014thegroupcapturedYemen’s capital, between AnsarAllahandthegovernmentgrewininten- extended itsinfluenceacrossthecountry. Directclashes and armedgroupalsoknownastheHouthimovement, tories. organised structurescapableofcontrollingextensive terri in 2015and2016. population reportedlosingtheirmainsourceofincome to make thesituationworse. Morethan35percentofthe before 2014,therapidescalationofviolenceonlyserved 104 102 After a two-year decline in figures, thetotal In the north, Ansar Allah, a Zaidi Shia political Inthenorth,AnsarAllah,aZaidiShiapolitical 107 If poverty and malnutrition were already high If poverty and malnutrition were already high 108 103

105 109 The The 106 110 - - - - -

governorate. in whathadbeenrelatively safe areas,suchasAbyan sions andledtonewattacks thatdisplacedmanypeople in southerngovernorates.Thisaggravatedsocialdivi signed inNovember2019. a power-sharingdealbetweenbothpoliticalforceswas as thefirstarmedoppositiongrouponHadi’s side, and the SouthernTransitional Council(STC) emergedin2017 secured theirpositionsinthesouth.SupportedbyUAE, Forces loyaltotheinternationallyrecognisedgovernment between JuneandNovember. on Hodeida,triggering at least 64,000 new displacements June 2018whenthecoalitionlaunchedamajoroffensive delivery ofhumanitarianaid.Tensions escalatedfurther in was transformedintotheconflict's hotspot,impedingthe try’s gateway for goods and aid, was blocked, and the city arms fromentering. the coalitionimposed a blockade on the country to prevent Ansar Allah firing missiles over Riyadh, the Saudi capital, 2017, butthehumanitariancrisisdeepened.Inresponseto The numberofnewdisplacementscontinuedtofallin north andwest. were reportedin2016,withthehighestnumbers offensives. About478,000newinternaldisplacements how sustainablethereturnsaregivenrepeatedmilitary in April 2020, however, whenthe STC declared self-rule Hodeida Sa’ada Marib Aden The boundariesandthenamesshowndesignationsusedon Taiz this mapdonotimplyo cialendorsementoracceptancebyIDMC. Ethiopia Capital city Eritrea Djibouti 115 Sana’a

111

112 TheportcityofHodeida,thecoun- Mostaectedgovernorates Saudi Arabia 114 Renewed tensionssurfaced Somalia 113

Gulf ofAden Oman - 35 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 launched anoffensiveagainstthecoalition’s positionsin Establishing peacewillbethefirststepineasing Yemen’s to achieve sustainable solutions. to achievesustainablesolutions. IDPs, who in some cases have been displaced for years, might enable people to return to normal life and allow have significantlyreduceddisplacement. ceasefires suchasthe Stockholm agreementof2018 humanitarian crisis.Althoughchallengingtoimplement, nities. restrictions and furtherdecreasedemployment opportu- has heightened these vulnerabilities, added to movement evictions or violence as a result. shelters, andmanyaredisplacedagainbyflashfloods, hood opportunities. high levelsoffoodinsecurityandfewservicesliveli- associated withtheirdisplacement.IDPsmeanwhileface home areasnearthefrontlinesbecauseofhighcosts or destroyedhouse. Somepeoplehaveevenreturnedto violence. Returning maymeangoingbacktoadamaged of Entire familiesfleeandreturnwiththeebbflow months oftheyear. ary displacementsinthetwogovernoratessixfirst Marib. Thistriggeredmorethan60,000 newandsecond the endof2019. for IDPs.Betweenthemtheywerehosting919,000 at spared fromtheconflict,becameimportantdestinations Marib andAlJawfgovernorates,whichhavelargelybeen and 2018,especiallyfromareasaroundHodeida. numbers ofdisplacementstookplaceinthewest2017 Sana’a, the south andAdengovernorate. Thehighest the largestmovementsin2015tookplaceareasaround before 2014wasconcentratedinSa’ada inthenorth,but to shiftsinthefrontlinesofconflict.Mostdisplacement Displacement patternsinYemen havefluctuatedaccording damaged homes near thefrontlines some people have even returned to food insecurity. With few alternatives, opportunities andface high levels of IDPs have limited livelihood 120

116 InJanuary2020, however, AnsarAllah 117 118

More than a third live in vulnerable Morethanathirdliveinvulnerable 119 The Covid-19 pandemic The Covid-19 pandemic 121 A lasting peace Alastingpeace - a shackinthedesertoutsideAden, Yemen. Heearns Ali, aged70, and IDPfromAlHudaydahnowlivesin roughly aonedollarday(3,000 Yemeni Rials)sell- ing plastic to a recycling business in town, ing plastictoarecyclingbusiness intown, Giles Clarke/OCHA, March2019

37 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Libya Figure 5: New displacements and total number of IDPs by conflict and violence in Libya (2010-2019) Figure 5:NewdisplacementsandtotalnumberofIDPsbyconflictviolenceinLibya(2010-2019) cities, includingBenghazi,Tobruk andMisrata,by forces. Armedoppositionmilitiasseizedseveralmajor protests inBenghaziledtoclasheswiththesecurity The ArabSpringcametoLibyainFebruary2011when highest since2014. in 2019, threetimesmorethanthepreviousyearand been upward.Therewere215,000newdisplacements and reductionsindisplacement,theoveralltrendshave nal displacement.Despitesomeyearsofpartialstability that havetriggeredtwo civil warsandhighlevelsofinter- in social division, political instability and economic decline Since thefallofGaddafiin2011,Libyahasbeenembroiled Libya 500 200 400 Thousands 300 100 0 2010 498,000 2011 of Gaddafi tion, fall interven- NATO 154,000 50,000 2012 59,000 2013 400,000 341,000 2014 LNA GNC and between Violence spread destructionandprevailinginsecurity. at theendofyear, preventedfromreturningbywide- About 154,000peoplewerestilllivingindisplacement deposed andNATO declared anendtothehostilities. returned totheirareasoforiginshortlyafterGaddafiwas gered nearly500,000 displacementsin2011.Mostpeople The conflict betweenNATO and Gaddafi's forces trig intervention. zone overthecountryandauthorisedaNATO military and inmid-MarchtheUNSecurityCouncildeclaredano-fly government. Gaddafi’s response was increasingly violent, a NationalTransitional Councilaimedatchangingthe the endofmonthhadorganisedthemselvesinto 500,000 100,000 2015 of Libya parts captures ISIL 2014 the highest number since new displacements in2019, IDMC recorded 215,000 New Displacements 122 304,000 156,000 2016 process UN peace of the Failure 197,000 29,000 2017 221,000 70,000 2018 and Tripoli on Derna O‡ensives Number ofIDPs 123 215,000 451,000 2019 process UN peace the second Failure of on Tripoli; O‡ensive - into theconflict. Offensiveson TripoliandDerna in2018 offensives, asurgeinfighting andtheentryofnewactors The followingtwoyearswere characterisedbyrenewed 197,000 bytheendofyear. than displacements, and the total number of IDPs fell to the firstyearsince2014whenthereweremorereturns lised during2017anddisplacementdecreased.Itwas about 156,000displacements,butthefrontlinesstabi supported byUSairstrikes. Theviolencein2016triggered after several offensives led by both governments and Libyan territory, mostnotablythecitiesofSirteandDerna, and violenceflaredagain.ISILlostmostofitscontrolover ments continuedtodisagreewithinGNAduring2016, The agreementdid not holdforlong.Thetwogovern peace talks. Government ofNationalAccord(GNA)duringUN-backed rival governmentsagreedinprincipletouniteformthe displacements in2015.At theendofyear, thetwo other objectives.Fightingtriggeredabout100,000 either to support one of the governments or to pursue beginning of 2015. Many other militias joined the conflict, ISIL seized parts of Libya at the end of 2014 and the displaced in2011wereforcedtofleeagain. become epicentresofconflict.Manypeoplewhohadbeen war, assomeofthecountry's mostpopulatedurbanareas displacements in2014,thehighestfiguresince2011 Violence betweenthetwopartiesledto more than341,000 Haftar andwithitsseatinTobruk, tookcontroloftheeast. western Libya. The Libya National Army (LNA), led by Congress (GNC), with its seat in Tripoli, took control of governments andwarringfactions.TheGeneralNational A contestedelectioninMay2014resultedtwoseparate around 59,000. still displacedasaresultofthe2011warhasfallento instability, and by the end of 2013 the number of people were attacked. IDPscontinued toreturnhomeamidthe Several embassies,includingthoseoftheUSandFrance, Derna andSebha,aswelldesertareasinCyrenaica. The violenceaffectedurbancentressuchasBenghazi, Islamists, andtribes. arms, andtherewereviolentclashesbetweenmilitias, assert itself. The country’s newlyelectedgovernmentstruggledto but thepoliticalandsecuritysituationremainedvolatile. No newdisplacementswererecordedin2012and2013, 124 127 Many combatants refused to lay down their Manycombatantsrefusedtolaydowntheir 125 128 126 - - people andinjuring 130. an airstrike hittheTadjourah detentioncentre, killing53 lines. Duringthe2019offensive on Tripoli, for example, especially thoseindetention centresnearthefront Libya havebeenparticularly atriskduringtheconflict, The largenumbersofmigrantsandasylumseekers in heavy fightingaround Tripoli towardtheendofyear. almost allofthecity’s 33,000inhabitants.There wasalso civilian life since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 andof the flight neighbourhoods, leadingtooneofthelargestlosses bombardments andnumerousattacks onresidential southern cityofMurzuqinAugust. Itincludedheavyaerial Fierce fightingbetweenthetwopartiesspreadto host families. displaced wereunder18,andmostsoughtshelterwith locations along the north-west coast. Almost a half of those safer neighbourhoods, the Nafusa mountains and various gered asmany170,000 displacements. People fledto Haftar launchedanoffensiveonthecityinAprilthattrig- the fightingtookplaceinandaroundcapital,after 2019 as a result, the highest figure since 2014. Most of About 215,000newdisplacementswererecordedin was tobegin. episode of violence just two days before the conference might bringstability, thecountryslippedintoaserious 2019, whenitseemedasifaUN-backed peaceconference a significantshareofthetotalforyear. TheninApril caused 33,000 and 24,000 displacements respectively, Algeria this mapdonotimplyo cialendorsementoracceptancebyIDMC. The boundariesandthenamesshowndesignationsusedon Capital city Niger Tripoli 130 129

Sebha

132 Sirte Misrata Chad Othercentres have beencutoff Mostaectedareas Egypt Tobruk Derna Benghazi 131 -

39 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 peace canbeachievedanddisplacementreduced. foreign actors,however, itremainstobeseenwhether a government is formed. that powerwillbetransferredtoanewadministrationonce talks inOctober2020andtheGNAleaderhasannounced The UNannouncedtheresumptionofinclusivepeace the displacementofmorethan27,000 people. capture cities, including Tripoli and Tarhuna, but led to and EgypttoHaftar. TheTurkish supporthelpedGNA ing supporttoGNAcounterthatsuppliedbytheUAE 2020. Turkey enteredtheconflictearlyinyear, provid Direct andindirectforeigninterventionsintensifiedin locations weredelayed. from essentialservicesfordays,andevacuationstosafer support armedmilitias. in detention centres have also reportedly been forced to sent militaryaid. an armsembargoimposedonLibyain2011,Russiaalso 136

134 133 137 Refugees andasylumseekers Given the increasing role of 135 Despite Despite 138 - Libya. Benghaziwasheavilyaffected byviolence Vegetable Market intheOldTown ofBenghazi, and manypeoplefledinthe past decade, Giles Clarke/OCHA, February2019

41 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Palestine Figure 6:NewdisplacementsandtotalnumberofIDPsbyconflictviolencein Palestine (2010-2019) Israel. of their displacement in around 1948 from what is now Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in 2019, the result Palestinians werealsoregisteredasrefugeesintheWest still displaced at the end of the year. A further 2.3 million recorded in Palestine in2019, and243,000peoplewere the lastdecade. Therewere1,500newdisplacements demolitions alsoforcedpeoplefromtheirhomesduring since the1967war, butrenewedhostilitiesandhousing protracted intheworld.MostIDPshavebeendisplaced Internal displacementinPalestine isamongthemost Palestine 500 200 400 Thousands 300 100 0 139 160,000 2010 600 160,000 2011 1,100 145,000 12,000 2012 on Gaza O ensive 146,000 2013 1,100 501,000 2014 since 1967 on Gaza o ensive important Most 275,000 by Israel’s blockadeofbasicgoodsandservices. aggravated thealreadydirehumanitariansituationcaused and 2019triggeredlargenumbersofdisplacements Episodes ofviolenceintheGazaStrip in2012,2014,2018 Council resolutions. of Article 2 of the UN Charter and successive Security reported in the West Bank. These acts constitute a breach to servicesandhumanitarianassistancehaveallbeen harassment, andrestrictionson movement andaccess purposes. Demolitions,settlerandmilitaryviolence cating landforillegalsettlementconstructionandother as ameansforIsraeltogainterritorialcontrolbyallo In theWest BankandEastJerusalem,displacementserves and Palestinian armedgroups. gered byescalationsinhostilitiesbetweenIsraeliforces of homesbyairstrikes and pre-emptiveevacuationstrig- ments in the GazaStrip arethe result ofthedestruction up Palestine varysignificantly. Mostofthenewdisplace- The displacementsituationsinthethreeareasthatmake 221,000 2015 740 New Displacements 193,000 2016 1,600 Bank the West phase in demolitions Mass 140

231,000 2017 700 238,000 2018 490 Number ofIDPs 243,000 2019 1,500 other year than inany Jerusalem in East demolished houses More 141

- The trend has continued in 2020 with demolitions at their The trendhascontinuedin2020 withdemolitionsattheir between 2010and2019, reachingapeakof1,600in2016. An averageof940Palestinians ayearwereevicted East Jerusalemtoincreaseitssovereigntyoverthecity. to shiftthedemographicandgeographiccompositionof Israel has instituted policies sincetheannexation intended tinians claimEastJerusalemasthecapitaloftheirstate. 1967, Israelannexed thewholecityasitscapital,butPales is disputed.FollowingtheoccupationofWest Bankin settlements ortheIsraelimilitary. the West Bank,hasbeenallocatedforthebenefitofIsraeli in areaCbutalsotoalesserextent inareasAandB. tions ofPalestinian propertybyIsraeliforces,especially triggered bydemolitions,forcedevictionsandconfisca- Bank andEastJerusalembetween20102019were Most ofthe9,400 newdisplacementsrecordedintheWest waves ofviolenceobservedsince2014. Gaza Strip attheendof2019asaresultdifferent Around 7,400 people were living in displacement in the November 2019triggeredover460newdisplacements. have taken placesince. ThemostrecentinMayand Further escalationsofviolence, whilelowerinintensity, rebuilt mostofthehomes. ed. ability toreconstructdamagedinfrastructurewaslimit unemployed andmorethanhalflivinginpoverty, their because of the blockade. With 45 per cent of people ment, but the Gazan economy wasalready in near collapse The majorityofIDPsreturnedafteraceasefireagree since 1967. for civiliancasualtiesanddisplacementswerethehighest homes were destroyed orseverely damaged, and figures more thanaquarterofGaza’s population. around 500,000 newdisplacements,theequivalentof Hamas movementinJulyandAugust 2014,triggering caused escalatingviolencebetweenitsforcesandthe An Israelimilitaryoperation,codenamedProtectiveEdge, Most ofareaC,whichmakes upmorethan60percentof ning andconstruction. exclusive control,includingoverlawenforcement,plan- tration ofareaBwithIsrael.InC,Israelretainsnear Authority administers areaA,anditsharestheadminis- West Bankwasdividedintothreeareas.ThePalestinian Under theOsloAgreementsbetween1993and1995, 144 The humanitarian community has since repaired and Thehumanitariancommunityhassincerepairedand 143 148

145

149 The status of Jerusalem ThestatusofJerusalem 142 146 Around 18,000 Around18,000

150 147 - - -

reality thatisdifficultfor Palestinianstoendure. ronment", inwhichIsraelipoliciesandpracticescreatea

and vehicles. ical violenceanddamagetoproperty, includingcrops against Palestinians. Theseattacks haveinvolvedphys- Covid-19 restrictions,as have attacks by Israeli settlers The number ofreported demolitions has increased under figures arehardtocomeby. ment restrictions, loss of livelihoods and other causes, but been displaced asaresult ofharassment, increased move highest levelsincethatyear. children, homeless since 2010. punishment whichhasleft460 people, including200 all oftheminvolvingPalestinians wholackIsraelibuilding have triggered more than 8,700 displacements, almost them uninhabitable. Thisconstitutesaformofcollective of Palestinians accusedofactsterrorismorrendered Israeli authoritieshavealsodemolishedthefamilyhomes Administrative divisions-OsloAgreementintheWest Bank Source: Palestinian Authority, MinistryofPlanning(PA MOP),2004 this mapdonotimplyocialendorsementoracceptancebyIDMC. The boundariesandthenamesshowndesignationsusedon Area C Area AandB No Man's Land Gaza Strip 153 since 2010 yearhomes every been evicted from their Palestinians900 have average,On than more TheUNhasdescribeda"coerciveenvi- West Bank Most a‡ectedareas Nature Reserve Israeli DeclaredEastJerusalemMunicipality Israel 152 151

More families may have Morefamiliesmayhave 155 Housing demolitions

Dead Sea Jordan 154

- 43 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 any prospectsofdurablesolutionsforIDPs. not onlytriggersnewdisplacement.Italsoundermines were displacedagain. Bank have never returned, and many of those who did displaced asaresultofhomedemolitionsintheWest repeated displacement. More than 50 per cent of people ment isalsocauseforconcern,asthephenomenonof size. the totalnumberofIDPsremainhighrelativetopopulation New displacementsinPalestine overthepastdecadeand continue. demolition orders,andtherisingtrendisexpected to permits. Someofthemhavealreadybeenissuedwith of allPalestinian homesinEastJerusalemlackbuilding triggering around360newdisplacements.At leastathird demolished in2019thananyoftheprevious15 years, housing. MorePalestinian homesinEastJerusalemwere most affected. the northandJabalalMukabirSilwaninsouth Jerusalem, withtheneighbourhoodsofBeitHaninain C. in theWest Bank,particularlyinEastJerusalemandarea permits. Itisdifficultfor Palestinianstogetbuildingpermits during the2010swasthreetofourpercent. West Bankoverthelast10yearshavetaken placeinEast Two thousandofthenewdisplacementsrecordedin half oftheyear. TherepeatedviolationofUNresolutions increased thenumberofhomedemolitionsinsecond The announcementofanannexation planinApril2020 156 The average rate of approval for permits in area C TheaveragerateofapprovalforpermitsinareaC 160 Thenumberofpeoplelivinginlong-termdisplace 159

158 Most were triggered by the demolition of Most were triggeredbythe demolition of 161

162 157

- West Bankrisktobedemolished andthechildrento playing. Theirschool,like manyothersacross inthe Children from Al Muntar Bedouin community are Children fromAlMuntarBedouin communityare drop out,Lys Arango/NRC,Nov2017. 45 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Figure 7: New displacements and total number of IDPs by conflict and violence in Egypt (2010-2019) Figure 7:NewdisplacementsandtotalnumberofIDPsbyconflictviolenceinEgypt(2010-2019) gency inNorthSinai.Italsoannouncedaplaninvolving which wasaccompaniedbyacurfewandstateofemer- government launchedacounteroffensivethatsameyear, In responsetoaseriesofterroristattacks, theEgyptian continued throughout2014. in NorthSinai,includinggaspipelines. attacks againstsecurityforcesandstateinfrastructure ing renewed protests, there was an increase in terrorists' elected presidentMohamedMorsiwasremovedfollow- during theArabSpring.In2013,whendemocratically term rulerHosniMubarakwasoustedinFebruary2011 last decadewastriggeredintheSinairegionafterlong- The bulkoftheinternaldisplacementinEgyptduring Egypt Thousands 25,000 20,000 35,000 40,000 30,000 Egypt 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2010 2011 Mubarak Hosni President Ousting of 2012 163 Theseattacks 2013 Morsi Mohamed President Ousting of 2014 4,700 Sinai in North demolitions of the First phase needs and develop programmes to assist them. needs anddevelopprogrammestoassistthem. were established tosupport those displaced, monitor their a smugglingtunnelintheirhouse. were excluded forreasonsthatincludedthediscoveryof compensated throughthesamemechanisms.Somepeople 8,400 displacements.Morethan3,400peoplewere children. tance foralternativeaccommodation,andschoolstheir received anadditionalthreemonthsoffinancialassis sated forthelossoftheirhomesandland.Theyalso data. Asmany as 2,900peoplewerefinanciallycompen- displacements in2014,basedonEgyptiangovernment The demolition of housing triggered more than 4,700 new out anattackagainstthearmy. sharply afterOctober2014,whenterroristgroupscarried border inJuly2013,buttherateofdemolitionsincreased Egyptian armyhadbegundemolishingbuildingsalongthe to destroyjihadisthideoutsandsmugglingtunnels. long andhalfakilometrewidealongtheborderwithGaza housing demolitions to create a buffer zone 14 kilometres housing demolitionstocreateabufferzone14kilometres The demolitions continued until 2015, triggering another The demolitionscontinueduntil2015,triggeringanother 4,100 2015 9,100 demolitions of the phase Second 166

8,400 New Displacements 2016 9,100 36,000 2017 1,800 demolitions of the phase Third 165

167 Several committees Severalcommittees 15,000 2018 Number ofIDPs 3,200 2019 3,200 164 The The - demolitions continuedin2018andonlyabout39per called NewRafah toresettlethosedisplaced,andasof The governmentdrewupplansin2015tobuildacity in 2020. cent ofRafah's originalinhabitantsremainedinthecity affected received government compensation. displacements inthelatterpartof2017. Mostofthose Housing demolitionsalsoresumed,triggering600new passage. Only thoseholdingspecialsecuritypermitswereallowed and restrictedmovementinoutofthegovernorate. whole ofNorthSinaiunderlockdown, closedmainroads civilians inthesamecity. TheEgyptianmilitaryputthe attack bythegroupreportedlykilledmorethan300 its counteroffensiveinlate2017and2018,afteranother in FebruaryandMarch2017. Thegovernmentintensified city ofel-Arishtriggerednearly1,300newdisplacements Terrorist groups’ persecutionofCopticChristiansinthe the evictees' situation. They continuetoinformthegovernmentperiodicallyabout 171 169

168 170 The in Sinai. as oftheend2019, allofthemdisplacedbyviolence situation hasimproved,therewere3,200IDPsinEgypt than 10,000 housing units. June 2020ithadpublicinfrastructure, servicesandmore Libya this mapdonotimplyo cialendorsementoracceptancebyIDMC. The boundariesandthenamesshowndesignationsusedon 173 Demonstration nearCairoUniversity inEgypt,

Capital city Sudan Cairo Mohamed Abdel Samad,2013

Mostaectedareas Sinai North 172 While the overall security Sinai South

Jordan Red Sea Red Arabia Saudi North Sinai El Arish South Sinai Rafah El Arish Bir alAbd Rafah

47 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 region, triggering nearly 343,000 displacements (see Figure 9: New displacements by disaster in MENA (2010-2019) 49 Disasters Figure 8). There are important data and knowledge gaps related to displacement in the context of slow-on- Palestine 500 | 2% 200,001 or more set hazards. The following sections will analyse in more Yemen 50,001-200,000 1,000 | 5% detail the different impacts of disaster displacement in the 0-50,000 Iran 2010 countries affected. 3,500 | 18% 20,000 Morrocco 15,000 | 75% Floods Iraq 2,000 | 20% The MENA region is highly vulnerable to weather-related 2011 Saudi Arabia 10,000 8,200 | 80% Because of the prevalence of conflict and violence in many disasters and the effects of climate change.174 The region countries of the MENA region, local and national author- is mostly arid and subject to seasonal rainfall. When it Morocco ities, as well as humanitarian aid providers, struggle to rains, poor soil absorption capacity and lack of adequate 580 | 1% collect data on disaster displacement. This creates import- drainage systems often cause riverine, flash and urban Palestine 1,200 | 2% 175 2012 ant gaps in knowledge of its scale, patterns, impacts and floods, some of which have been devastating. Floods Iran 52,000 50,000 | 97% duration. For this reason, the overall estimates of both new are the natural hazard triggering most displacement at the Others displacements and the total number of IDPs associated regional level, with nearly 58 per cent of the total for 2010 4,300 | 10% with disasters are highly conservative. to 2019. The floods that affected Iran in 2019 triggered Saudi Arabia 4,700 | 11% more internal displacement than any other event at the 2013 Iran Despite these limitations, the data reveals that there have regional level during that period and have been described 43,000 4,700 | 11% Iraq been nearly 1.5 million new disaster displacements during as the worst to hit the country in more than 15 years (see 7,900 | 19% Others the last decade. As Figure 9 shows, the overall numbers Iran Spotlight, p.54).176 Yemen 1,100 | 5% 10,000 | 23% are on the rise, a phenomenon that can be explained both Lebanon Palestine 1,300 | 6% 11,000 | 26% by an increasing number of floods and an overall improve- IDPs and refugees driven from their homes by conflict have Morocco 2014 1,700 | 7% 23,000 ment in data collection and the monitoring of disaster been unevenly affected by floods and flash floods, and Syria Others 2,300 | 10% displacement. many have been forced to flee for a second and even a 330 | 0.2% Algeria Iran third time. More than any other hazard, floods contribute 4,500 | 20% 5,400 | 4% Most disaster displacement during the last decade has to making displacement chronic, cyclical and protracted. Iran 12,000 | 52% Palestine been triggered by weather-related events, with floods From Syria and Iraq to Jordan and Lebanon, disasters have 2015 10,000 | 7% 141,000 Algeria causing more than half, and storms, including cyclones, worsened the conditions of IDPs and refugees living in 19,000 | 14% more than 175,000 displacements. While less frequent, camps and informal urban areas. Others Iraq 1,700 | 1% 23,000 | 16% earthquakes have also affected some countries in the Algeria Yemen 2,000 | 2% 83,000 | 59% Yemen 2016 45,000 | 36% 124,000 Israel 75,000 | 61% Syria 2,300 | 1% Others Figure 8: New disaster displacements in MENA, by hazard type (2010-2019) 2,500 | 1% 2017 Iraq 234,000 3,900 | 2% Iran Oman 225,000 | 96% 10,000 | 5% 858,000 Others 17,000 | 8% 57.7% Yemen Djibouti 18,000 | 9% 2018 10,000 | 2% 343,000 Syria 211,000 Others 23.1% 27,000 | 13% 15,000 | 2% 175,000 Iraq Syria 65,000 | 31% 17,000 | 3% 11.8% 79,000 Iran Yemen 20,000 31,000 | 5% 5.3% 11,000 74,000 | 35% 1.3% Iraq 0.7% 80 2019 630,000 37,000 | 6% Iran 520,000 | 82% Extreme Wet mass

Flood Earthquake Storm Wildfire Drought Temperature movement Others refer to countries whose value of disaster displacement for a given year was too small to be visible in the figure. 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Floods struck IDP camps severely across the north of the makeshift bridges linking the two sides of the city, and 51 Syria in 2019, for example. At the end of March, more residents took to risking their lives by crossing in small than 14,000 people were displaced in Al Hassakeh gover- fishing boats able to hold only about five people each. norate, and more than 40,000 IDPs were affected in 14 This slowed down their flight from the city and left many camps in Idlib.177 Another flood created severe impacts waiting in peril on the banks of the river.183 at IDP camps in December of that year in northern areas of Idlib. These areas host the highest number of IDPs in Rapid urbanization has increased floods' impacts. Insuffi- the country. With their tents inundated and uninhabitable, cient drainage and water management systems, among about 2,850 IDPs were forced to move again in the midst other factors, have increased people’s exposure to them. of a fierce offensive.178 So has poor groundwater absorption capacity caused by the development of urban infrastructure and inade- quate planning of human settlements.184 The Saudi city Floods cause the most disaster of Jeddah, home to 3.5 million people, is a case in point. displacement in MENA. Studies have shown how urban expansion and insufficient They contribute to making drainage systems have heightened flood risk.185 The city is displacement chronic, cyclical, located in an area characterised by low levels of rainfall, and protracted in the region but when rains hit, damages can be devastating. Entire parts of the city may be inundated. This was the case in 2009 and 2011, when the city was confronted by severe Iraq has experienced similar phenomena. IDP camps were flash floods. The 2011 floods were among the most intense lashed by floods, and as many as 2,100 displaced families on record, and rendered 1,500 families homeless.186 Their had to be evacuated from six camps in Baghdad and Anbar scale and intensity, however, led to the development of to alternative shelters in November 2015.179 More recently, new flood protection measures and flood risk assessments in November 2018, widespread flooding hit Ninewa and aimed at reducing future impacts.187 Salah al Din governorates. More than 35,000 people were displaced. Thousands of them were pushed into second- Several urban areas in the region are facing similar chal- ary displacement, making their ability to achieve durable lenges, underscoring the need to develop risk-sensitive solutions even more remote.180 urban planning to reduce the likelihood of damage, loss and population displacement. IDMC’s flood displacement Recent events in the Marib governorate of Yemen are a risk model shows that on average 392,000 people could clear illustration of this overlap between conflict displace- be displaced by riverine floods in any given year in the ment and flood risk. Largely spared from conflict, the MENA region. The risk of flood displacement, the model's governorate was home to 770,000 IDPs at the end of results show, is highly concentrated in urban and peri-ur- 2019.181 Renewed hostilities from late January 2020 then ban areas (see Flood risk Spotlight, p.52). led to a sharp deterioration in IDPs' conditions. When flooding occurred in March, April and late July, IDPs bore the brunt of it. Flooding from the Marib Dam on 31 July destroyed 735 shelters and damaged 1,790 in Sirwah District alone, displacing thousands for a second or even third time. Flooding has also pushed landmines and other explosive devices into areas not previously affected by them.182

Floods have impeded the flight of people from insecure areas. Flooding hit Mosul in May 2017 during the conflict between Iraqi forces and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The city was under heavy fire and residents The displacement journey has many difficulties, but fled in search of safety. Heavy rains, meanwhile, triggered shelter is one of the first essential steps for protection flooding in the Tigris river. All crossing points between East of Syrian displaced population against secondary

and West Mosul were cut off. The military had to dismantle disaster displacement, Diab/UNHCR, 2016 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Spotlight - Reducing risk: flood This Average Annual Displacement risk (AAD) should be Figure 10: Riverine flood displacement risk in selected MENA countries (urban and rural areas) 53 considered conservative, as it is based on population displacement 100% exposure data as of 2018. The way displacement risk changes, however, depends on how cities will expand and grow.189 The model also looks at riverine floods, not urban 75% floods. The likelihood of flood displacement can increase because of inadequate drainage and water management systems, informal urban expansion, and lack of absorption 50% capacity in cities, among other factors not included in the model. 25% Historical data shows that floods are the hazard triggering most displacement in the MENA region. Looking back- Despite being conservative, the results show a consid- Jordan Syria Oman Tunisia Tunisia Saudi Arabia Egypt United Arab Emirates Lebanon Libya Iraq Palestine Kuwait Djibouti Iran Yemen Morocco Israel wards, however, is not enough to assess and reduce the erable challenge ahead. On average, 392,000 people 0% Algeria risk of future displacement. Risk models are a useful tool could be displaced by riverine floods in any given year Average Annual Displacement (urban areas) Average Annual Displacement (rural areas) for estimating the level of damage from future disasters. across the MENA region.190 More than three-quarters of They provide valuable information to decision-makers the people at risk of flood displacement will be in urban and planners that can support risk reduction efforts. While and peri-urban areas (see Figures 10 and 11). disaster risk modelling has been well developed and applied, however, few models have looked at the likeli- The data produced by the model can be used to inform Figure 11: Riverine flood displacement risk in MENA (urban and rural areas) hood of displacement in the context of disasters. urban and national sustainable development plan- ning. It can also be employed to put in place disaster IDMC developed a unique riverine flood displacement risk risk reduction measures, including crisis prevention model that estimates how many people could be displaced and management tools, contingency plans, and early in the future by riverine floods. The data produced by the warning systems. Making internal displacement risk part 96,000 model is disaggregated by urban and rural areas, allowing of the equation would mean that such interventions could 24% for a better understanding of the implications for towns support durable solutions and displacement risk reduction Average Annual Displacement (urban areas) and cities.188 in the years to come. Average Annual Displacement (rural areas) 296,000 76%

Lake Assal, Charlotte Cans/OCHA, June 2015 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa inces were affected, with Golestan, Fars, Khuzestan, and inces wereaffected,withGolestan,Fars,Khuzestan,and displaced. of thedisaster, anestimatedhalfamillionofpeoplewere Lorestan sufferingsomeoftheworstimpacts. At thepeak disaster ofthelast15years. extreme floodsbetweenMarchand April2019, theworst tures anddesertification,thecountrywasconfrontedby extended periodoflowprecipitation,increasingtempera extremes including drought and floods. is prone to earthquakes. It is also vulnerable to climate of itslocationbetweentwotectonicplates,thecountry ments intheMENAregionduringlastdecade. Because Iran hashadthehighestnumberofnewdisasterdisplace people displaced by floods Spotlight -Iran: halfamillion 193 192 Twenty-five outof31prov- 191 Following an

- - A combination of natural and human factors explains why and productivelandwerebadlydamaged,the overflows atdamsandprotectoilinfrastructure. redirect floodwaterstowardsfarmsandcropstoavoid As rainscontinuedunabated,authoritiesdecidedto offices wereclosed,andthisdelayedtheresponse. occurred duringtheIranianNewYear holiday. Manypublic communities andauthoritiesbysurprise. Thefloodsalso absorption capacityandresultedinflashfloodingthattook period ofdrought,whichcontributedtodecreasingsoil on 35yearsofsatelliteimagery. 20 Marchto21Aprilwasthehighesteverrecorded,based the floodsweresodevastating.Therainfallrecordedfrom and shelters. Golestan areundocumentedandalsolosttheirlivelihoods ture particularlysevere. or destroyedinruralareas,makingtheimpactsonagricul- losses amountedto$4.7 billion. killed and65,000housesweredestroyed.Damages more thantenmillionpeople. Seventy-eightpeoplewere The floods struck about 2,000 towns and villages, home to 196

195 ManyAfghan refugeeslivingin 194 197 Farmland was harmed Farmlandwasharmed It came after a long Itcameafteralong 199 Roads 198

severe weatherextremes. Morefloodsstruckthecountry terms ofcoordinationandresponseinthefacesuch system. The2019floods,however, revealedshortfallsin Iran hasawell-developeddisasterriskmanagement of thedisasteratend2019. 180,000 people were still living in displacement as a result on anIDMCestimateusinghousingdestructionasaproxy, displacement severalmonthsafterthedisaster. were still suffering from vulnerabilities linked to flood staying in tents near their home. Large numbers of people declared uninhabitablebyauthorities.Otherswerestill Many internallydisplacedpeoplereturnedtohouses areas andprovidesafetynetstothoseaffected. origin. closed, andpeoplehadreturnedtotheirgovernorateof Five months after thedisaster, allcampswerereported mately providingemergencyshelterto347,000 people. by puttinginplace120campspublicbuildingsandulti- elsewhere. TheIranianRed CrescentSocietyresponded saw theircropsanddwellingsinundatedsoughtrefuge agricultural sector was particularly hard hit. 201 The government also moved to drain flooded Thegovernmentalsomovedtodrainflooded 204 200 Farmers who Farmers who 203 202 Based Based disaster couldhelppreventdisplacementinthefuture. recovery, andlearningthelessonsfromthiswidespread early warningsystems,strengtheningpreparednessand increasing the risk. Investing in weather forecasting and with longer periods of drought and intermittent heavy rains during 2020, andstudiesshowthepatternwillcontinue, any other event at the regional level during the last any othereventattheregional levelduringthelast in Khuzestanprovince, Susangerd, Iran.Thefloods Palm treesstandinfloodwaterafterheavyrainfall in 2019 triggered more internal displacement than in 2019triggeredmoreinternal displacementthan decade. AliMohammadi/Bloomberg, April2019 205 55 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Storms One took authorities by surprise, as it took place during Figure 12: Ten major storms triggering displacement in MENA (2010-2019) 57 the second half of November, rather than in January and The combined effects of storms and floods are often diffi- February, as normally occurs. More than 300 people took cult to entangle. Storms, IDMC's evidence shows, have shelter in emergency camps.210 also affected the region and triggered displacement. Even 2015 though most of the MENA region is not prone to cyclones, Syrian refugees in Lebanon are particularly vulnerable to Winter countries including Yemen, Oman, Djibouti, and the UAE disasters. Around 17 per cent of Syrian refugees there live Storm Huda have been hit by tropical cyclones in recent years. Other in informal settlements, and about 40 per cent of these 06 Jan storms, including snowstorms, have triggered displace- settlements have been built with inadequate materials in Palestine Cyclone ment in countries like Iran, Lebanon and Palestine. Data areas at risk.211 Storm Norma, which struck in early January 10,000 Chapala collection is inconsistent and insufficient, and the overall 2019, brought cold weather, snow and flooding to Lebanon, 02 Nov figures at the regional level are conservative. forcing about 2,800 Syrian refugees to seek alternative Cyclone Yemen 43,000 shelters. Because of the high percentage of the Syrian Megh During the last decade, there have been some outlier population living in informal settlements and the difficulty 08 Nov years in terms of displacement, with 2015 being particu- that humanitarian agencies and relief organisations have Yemen 40,000 larly devastating. Two cyclones, Chapala and Megh, made in accessing them, these figures are conservative. The landfall in Yemen in the span of a few days in November, difficulty in access also delayed the disaster response.212 triggering 43,000 and 40,000 displacements, respec- 2017 tively. These storms were among the most severe to hit the Several countries in the MENA region including Jordan, country in the last decade and came on top of an intense Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, have developed disaster Snowstorms confrontation between the internationally-recognised damage and loss databases. Some of these databases, 31 Jan Iran government and Ansar Allah (also known as the Houthi however, have not been updated for several years or are 10,000 movement).206 Their successive impacts aggravated the not publicly available.213 As a result, numbers on inter- overall humanitarian situation and pushed many conflict nal displacement triggered by storms are hard to come IDPs into secondary displacement.207 That same year, by. Figure 12 shows the ten major storms that triggered 2018 winter storm Huda displaced 10,000 in Palestine, a high displacement in the region from 2010 to 2019, based on number considering its population. data obtained by IDMC from partners. As can be seen, Snowstorms Yemen was the most affected country. The figures, 25 Jan Iran Another intense cyclone season occurred in 2018, with combined with data on displacement triggered by floods, 23,000 Cyclone cyclones Mekunu, Luban and Sagar causing extensive show how vulnerable the region is to hydro-meteorological Sagar damage and displacement across Oman, Yemen and hazards. 19 May Djibouti,Yemen Djibouti. In the three countries combined, about 38,000 Cyclone 9,400 displacements were reported, with the bulk of them in Slow-onset hazards Mekunu Yemen. Relative to Djibouti's population, cyclone Sagar 23 May triggered a high number of displacements. Over nine thou- The MENA region is the most water scarce region glob- Oman, Yemen 15,000 sand people were displaced from 19 to 20 May, 2018, the ally and faces associated slow-onset hazards, including Storm equivalent of one per cent of the country’s population. The drought, desertification and land degradation.214 Our 30 May majority of this displacement was triggered in Djibouti city, understanding of how these processes exacerbate the Syria Cyclone 4,300 where one year of rain fell within a single day, unleashing social and economic vulnerability that drives displace- Luban flash floods that put about half of the city under water. ment is still limited, however.215 While it is problematic to 14 Oct This was particularly worrisome, given that nearly a fifth of directly link drought and conflict displacement, studies Oman, Yemen Djibouti’s population were estimated to live in conditions have provided evidence on how drought can increase 13,000 of extreme poverty.208 conflict risk.216 Research suggests that the civil unrest and subsequent war in Syria in 2011 was partly driven by 2019 More recently, winter storms hit Iran, pushing tens of thou- several years of drought that undermined livelihoods in Storm sands into displacement across many provinces. About rural areas. Economic decline led to a rural-urban migration 30,001 or more 10,001 to 30,000 Norma 23,000 people were provided with emergency shelter that increased social, political and ethnic tensions in cities. 06 Jan 10,000 or less in January 2018 following days of heavy snowfall.209 Two This fuelled discontent and ultimately led to civil unrest Lebanon winter storms, though less intense, hit the country in 2019. and war (see Syria spotlight, p.60). 2,800 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa necessary investments to secure new water resources. Jordan, relyongroundwater butstruggletomobilizethe new onesthroughdesalinization.Others,like Yemen or have sufficientfundstoaccesswatersourcesorcreate water scarcity. Some, like oil-rich Saudi Arabia or the UAE, between countrieswhenitcomestodesertificationand result ofthesehazards.Thereareimportantdifferences displacement figures,however,a havebeenreported as and climatechangecouldaggravatetheirimpacts.No slow-onset hazards that will continue to affect the region, Desertification, salinizationandsealevelriseareother most affected. the governoratesofBasra,MissanandThi-Qarbeing the related tothecrisiswererecordedin2018and2019, with data ishardtocomeby. Morethan20,000 displacements movements shouldbeconsideredforceddisplacement, alternative sources of income. While these population cant numbersofpeoplehavemovedawayinsearch livestock ownershavesoldtheiranimals,andsignifi ing numbersoffarmershavestoppedworkingtheirland, however, hasbeenpiecemealatbest.Asaresult,increas to rundryandwaterqualityhasplummeted.Theresponse, asset depletion and erosion. Irrigation canals have begun livelihoods havebecomelesssustainableasaresultof extremes observedin2015and2016.Traditional rural been affectedbywaterscarcitysinceatleast2007, with of thechallengesmanycountriescouldface. Iraqhas displacement isavailable, theevidenceisillustrative While Iraqistheonlycountrywheredataondrought a regionalpriority. ening themonitoringofdroughtdisplacementshouldbe data onrelateddisplacement,however, exists. Strength- the country hasbeen affected bylong-term drought. data collectedoverthepastdecade, about97percentof of theiceberg.Iranprovidesanotherexample. Basedon level. Italsosuggeststhatthefiguremaybebuttip a troublesomelackofdataandmonitoringattheregional it comesfromIraqalone, andonlyfor2019. Thisreveals figure isbroken down, however, itbecomesevidentthat 1.3 percenthavebeentriggeredbydrought.Whenthis ments recordedintheregionbetween2010and2019, only the phenomenoninMENAregion.Ofallnewdisplace compelling argumentforbettermonitoringandanalysing ated withdroughtandotherslow-onsethazardsmakes a The limited data available on internal displacement associ 219 218

217 No No 220 - - - - phenomena. assess the risk ofdisplacementresultingfromslow-onset challenges totheregion,morebaselinedataisneeded and sealevelrise. a few, arealsoatriskofbeingaffectedbysalinization Saudi Arabia’s westcoastandinKuwait, just tomention ment havebeenobtainedsofar. Othercoastalareason broader NileDeltaregion,butnofiguresondisplace ence, floodingandsalinization. becoming increasinglymorevulnerabletolandsubsid in Egypt,isacasepoint.Thecity’s coastalareasare salinization are allbutmissinginthe region. Alexandria, ment causedbysealevelrise, coastalerosionand Though manycoastalareasareatrisk,figuresondisplace phenomenon. available toquantifythedisplacementriskrelatedthis fresh water within the next decade. and istheonlycapitalinworldthatmayrunoutof in thehighlands,isworld’s mostwaterstressedcity in coastalareas.At thesametimeSana’a, whichislocated ploitation of groundwater which leads to saltwater intrusion This extreme water scarcity is in part a result of overex - the lowestwateravailabilitypercapitainworld. Yemen, despitebeingfrequentlyhitbyfloods,has aggravate theirimpacts andclimatethe region, change could sea level will rise continue to affect Desertification, salinization and 223 With climate change posing specific Withclimatechangeposingspecific 222 Thisisaffectingthe 221 There is no data There is no data - - -

A floodedroadinGilanProvince, Iran where around 200 people were affected by heavy rains. Several 200 peoplewereaffectedby heavyrains.Several bridges collapsedandsomeroads wereblocked, Ashkan Shabani/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images,October 2019

59 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Spotlight - Syria: drought as ralists who were highly vulnerable to climate shocks.225 protests against the President al-Assad, as the regime’s 61 a driver of conflict Between 2006 and 2009, the country faced consecutive failure to alleviate the effects of drought and massive inter- and severe droughts whose effects were exacerbated by nal migration sunk in.229 Rural communities also played a water scarcity and increasing insecurity in land tenure. prominent role in the Syrian protests. The rural farming Extreme drought conditions in the fertile lands around the town of Dara’a, for example, was a hotbed of early protest Euphrates and Tigris rivers caused the worst crop failures after being hard hit by drought and water scarcity, with little in living memory. In the years prior to the Arab Spring, assistance from the government.230 around 75 per cent of farmers lost their crops and 80 per cent of herders lost their livestock.226 These conditions played a key role in the conflict's power struggles, with hydroelectric dams and other reservoirs Syria’s civil war is the product of a complex set of factors The drought, which returned in 2011, was made worse by gaining significant strategic value. Non-governmental that range from religious, social and political tensions to water management decisions, poor planning and policy armed groups captured the Tishrin hydroelectric dam deteriorating economic conditions and resulting griev- errors. The Syrian government provided subsidies for on the Euphrates River after heavy clashes in November ances, especially among youth. While drawing causality water-intensive crops such as wheat and cotton, further 2012. The dam is considered of major strategic impor- between drought and conflict is problematic, evidence draining water sources.227 By the end of the year, the UN tance to the Syrian regime. In February 2013, the same suggests that the impoverishment among rural households estimated that between two and three million people forces captured the country's largest hydroelectric facility, caused by extended drought prior to the Arab Spring cata- were affected, with one million pushed into food insecu- the Tabqa dam.231 Both offensives involved heavy fighting lysed the uprising in 2011 and played a role in how Syria's rity. Hundreds of thousands of people struggled to cope and led to the displacement of thousands of people. As civil war unfolded.224 with the crisis, and between 40,000 and 60,000 families the country enters its tenth year of conflict, the effects of were forced to move.228 climate change will continue to play a major role in how Prior to 2011, more than 75 per cent of Syria’s land was it unfolds. More analysis will be needed on how conflict used for agriculture. The bulk of agricultural production These people mostly headed to suburbs in Aleppo, and drought are connected and how the challenge can was concentrated in the country’s north-east, home Damascus, Dara’a, Deir ez-Zor, Hama, and Homs, which be addressed. to about 58 per cent of Syria's poor. Most of the rural were already affected by poverty, inequality and a lack of communities consisted of families of farmers and pasto- job opportunity. The suburbs were the centre of the first

In 2019, fires have caused damage to agricultural fields and crops across Syria, further threatening food security and livelihoods,

Halldorsson/OCHA, June 2019 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Earthquakes and tsunamis tents provided by the Iraqi Red Crescent.238 The same 63 year, 33,000 people were displaced by seven other earth- Geophysical hazards like earthquakes and tsunamis quakes in Iran. are less frequent, and few such events have triggered displacement since 2010 across MENA. The risk of earth- Iraq and Iran are situated at the junction of the Eurasian quakes and tsunamis is relatively high, however, given and Arabian tectonic plates, where the Zagros mountains the location of several countries on the intersection of take shape.239 Seismic activity is common. Two consecutive the Eurasian, Arabian and African tectonic plates. At any earthquakes of 6.4 and 6.2 magnitude hit Iran's Eastern moment, internal displacement could be triggered by Azerbaijan Province in August 2012, mostly affecting rural geophysical events, and more attention should be put on settlements, including about 400 villages. Severe damage the likelihood of subsequent displacement. IDMC’s Global and destruction was reported in at least 46 of them.240 Disaster Displacement Risk Model shows, that on average, More than 100,000 people were displaced. 288,000 people could be displaced by earthquakes and tsunamis in any given year in the region. Iran, Iraq and More recently, on 23 February 2020, another 5.7 magni- Egypt are the countries most at risk of displacement from tude earthquake shattered the region of Urmia in Iran, at such occurrences.232 the border with Turkey, affecting both sides of the border and displacing more than 14,000 people in Iran.241 Shortly after, Iran became one of the first countries to be severely 288,000 people could be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, interrupting assistance displaced by earthquakes to the displaced population. As of October 2020, Iran was and tsunamis in any given still the country in the region most stricken by the disease, year in the region impeding the ability of displaced people to quickly return home and illustrating how difficult it is for a country to respond to overlapping crises.242 Apart from seismic activity that triggered 4,500 displace- ments in Algeria in 2014, the major geophysical event No displacement has been reported in the region from triggering displacement in recent years was the 7.3 magni- tsunamis, but countries along the Mediterranean coast are tude earthquake that hit border areas between Iran and at risk. IDMC’s risk model suggests there is a five per cent Iraq on 12 November 2017.233 The Iranian north-western probability that in the next 50 years an estimated 650,000 region of Kermashah, abutting Iraq, was the epicentre of people may become displaced from the north-west coast the tremor, which displaced about 170,000 people on the of Egypt by such an event.243 Historical events prove that Iranian side of the border and 3,900 on the Iraqi side. It this can happen. In the year 365, a powerful earthquake was the deadliest earthquake in the world that year, and off the coast of Greece triggered a tsunami that devastated its intensity was such that it was felt as far away as Turkey, the city of Alexandria.244 Kuwait and Israel.234

Hundreds of aftershocks were felt for several days, and as a precautionary measure, people residing in the area were told to sleep outside their house.235 Many build- ings and houses were destroyed or damaged.236 In Iran, the displaced were sheltered in emergency tents either because their homes were destroyed or because it was unsafe to return given the high risk of structural collapse.237 In Iraq, the impacts where mostly felt in Sulaymaniyah governorate, but were less devastating than in Iran. A number of houses were damaged, collapsed, or were on the verge of collapse, forcing an estimated 3,900 people to leave their homes and seek refuge with relatives or in A little girl plays in the water as waves hit the shore

at Serra, near Aden, Giles Clarke/OCHA, March 2019 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Part 65

2Advancing solutions in the next decade

Ali Mohammed, 49 years old, and his family arrives at Abs Camp from Kushar, Hajjah northern Yemen after the conflict escalated in the area. Like Ali, the conflict also forced thousands of families to flee but many others are trapped, living off food stocked in their homes to survive,

Mohammed Awadh/NRC, March 2019 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa As of the end of 2010, when the Arab Spring protests had Our internal displacement index (IDI), which provides an Figure 14: Internal Displacement Index in MENA (coloured) and globally (grey) 67 just begun in Tunisia, there were nearly 3.7 million people indication of the overall situation in different countries living in internal displacement in MENA, most of them in and regions, shows that many MENA countries have 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Iraq. The figure has more than tripled over the last ten some of the lowest average IDI values worldwide. This is years to reach 12.4 million at the end of 2019 (see Figure explained by low levels of security and stability, modest 0.534 IDI 0.603 13). The region’s IDPs now make up nearly 30 per cent of policy development and implementation, and the severity the world’s total. Most live in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. of displacement (see Figures 14).

The impacts of displacement have also become the drivers 0.727 Impact index of further instability and risk. They have created a vicious Strengthening peacebuilding efforts and increasing secu- 0.803 cycle in which displacement becomes more chronic and rity are essential for improving the overall situation, and a protracted. key step is to improve the availability and quality of data 0.929 on internal displacement. A solid baseline is needed to Scale of displacement indicator 0.950 Even in countries where conflict has receded, reconstruc- guide efforts in risk reduction and prevention, response, tion is difficult because of high costs and the lack of the recovery and durable solutions.245 social cohesion needed to reactivate local economies. Severity indicator 0.279 0.375 When disasters strike on top of this and trigger more Putting an end to displacement requires greater under- displacement, progress toward the achievement of dura- standing of how it comes about and how it can be prevented. ble solutions can be brought to a halt or even reversed. Better assessing its economic and social impacts, captur- Economic impact indicator 0.828 In such volatile environments, the design and implemen- ing its chronic and protracted nature and unpacking its 0.931 tation of policies for sustainable development and durable relationship with cross-border and return movements solutions can be extremely demanding. would help to establish the knowledge to inform policy Context index 0.396 and drive positive change for IDPs. This section looks 0.409 Many IDPs have been unable to put an end to their at these issues in detail and identifies gaps and good displacement as a result, and governments and humani- practices that are relevant to all stakeholders working on tarian aid providers face challenges in supporting them. humanitarian response and development planning. Environmental sustainability indicator 0.54 0.479

Figure 13: Total number of IDPs by conflict and violence in the MENA region (2010-2019)

0.615 15 Socioeconomic development indicator 0.589

Security and stability indicator 0.031 12 0.173

0.48 Policies and capacities index 0.593 9 Syria

0.340 Data indicator 0.436

6 Iraq 0.600 Implementation indicator 0.766

3 Yemen 0.500 Policy indicator 0.577

Libya Millions 0 Palestine 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Years

The country names and values are shown only when the total number of IDPs per year value exceeds 100,000. 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa of $390 cost perIDPof$623,farhigherthantheglobalaverage tine, Syria andYemen. available foronlyfiveMENAcountries:Iraq,Libya, Pales- Data ontheeconomicimpactofinternaldisplacementis other regionsandcountriesaffectedbythephenomenon. levels insomeofthecountriesassessedcomparedwith displacement crises,butalsothehigh average income The highcostispartlyaresultoftheseverityregion’s them fortheirlossofincome. healthcare, educationandsecurity, andcompensating This includesprovidingeveryIDPwithsupportforhousing, MENA’s IDPsasoftheend2019atmorethan$8billion. We estimatethetotalcostofmeetingneedsall itarian sector. host communities,governmentagenciesandthehuman- and healthcare that must be paid for by IDPs themselves, It alsogeneratesspecificneeds,includingshelter, food cussions thatlimittheirabilitytocontributetheeconomy. to fleetheirhomes,oftenwithsignificantfinancialreper- livelihoods, health, education and security of those forced It hasadestabilisingeffectonthehousingconditions, tries asawhole. consequences forIDPs,theirhostcommunitiesandcoun internal displacementhasimportanteconomicandsocial Whether itistriggeredbyconflict,violenceordisasters, economic impacts Measuring socialand Figure 15: Economic impact per IDP for one year of displacement for selected MENA countries Figure 15:EconomicimpactperIDPforoneyearofdisplacement forselectedMENAcountries Palestine Yemen Libya Syria Iraq 247 (seeFigure15). 0 Livelihoods 248 246 200 It equates to an average Itequatestoanaverage Health

Housing $348 400 - $441 about 14percentofthecountry’s GDP(seeFigure16). for oneyearismorethan$5.6billion,whichrepresents Syria’s 6.5millionIDPsandtheirestimatedlossofincome development. The total cost of meeting the needs of in MENA,andthechallengesitposesforsocioeconomic IDPs, governmentsandaidprovidersrespondingtocrises tial economic burden internal displacement places on Despite theselimitations,thefigureshighlightsubstan- included, theoverallfiguresmightbemuchhigher. host communitiesoroforigin.Ifthesewere income. Nordotheyinclude theeconomicimpactson future employment prospects and reduce their potential tion ofchildren’s education,forexample, maylimittheir economic consequences of displacement. The disrup and losses. They do not account for the longer-term only consider the costs of covering IDPs’ immediate needs of displacementinMENAis still limited.Theseestimates Our understandingofthesocialand economic impacts Education 600 Security $715 $743 800 $869 1,000 249 -

assistance has risen significantly. Identifying areas in which The numberofIDPsthoughttobeinneedfood and extreme hunger amidsevereeconomicdecline. ening crisis. 2019, andchangesinIDPs' needsasaresult ofthedeep- two millionin2017tomorethan3.6attheendof increase islinked toariseinthenumberofIDPsfrom calculated forthecountrybetween2015and2017. nearly $1.3billion,morethantwicetheannualfigurewe ity of displacement. Our estimate for Yemen in 2019 was Economic impactsincreasewithboththescaleandsever Figure 16:Total economicimpactofinternaldisplacementin2019forselectedMENAcountries(inUSD, %ofcountries’ GPD) 252 Many now face prolonged displacement Many now face prolonged displacement $5.6 billion(14%GDP) Syria $181 million(1.2%GDP Palestine ) 251 The The 253 -

different areas. different areas. displacement andtheassociatedcostslossesin on thenumberofpeopledisplaced,durationtheir interventions. To do that,however, requires betterdata governments andaidproviderstotailormoreeffective displacement has the highest economic impact canhelp $1.3 billion(4.7% GDP) $199 million(0.4% GDP) Libya Yemen $1.1 billion(0.5% GDP) Iraq 250

69 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 1.5 million 0-4 2.8 million 5-14 GPS coordinates. GPS coordinates. identification numbers andgeolocatedinformationusing data disaggregated by displacement site with unique tion's displacementtrackingmatrix(IOMDTM) provides and Libya, where the International Organization for Migra there aregoodexamples ofitincountriessuchasIraq national level. Data disaggregation is often lacking, but level, butmoredetailedinformationisrequiredatthe These estimatesarecalculatedattheglobalandregional about 800,000 wereover60(seeFigure17). and disasters.NearlyfivemillionIDPswereunder18, ment attheendof2019asaresultconflicts,violence million womenand girls werelivingininternaldisplace- When appliedtoMENA,thismethodrevealsthatabout6.3 lar tothatoftheoverallpopulation. assume that the demographic distribution of IDPs is simi- the UN Population Division’s demographic data. They displacement ineachcountryattheendofyearand are basedonthenumberofpeoplelivingininternal number ofIDPsbyageandsex in2019. Theseestimates durable solutions.We startedpublishingestimatesofthe assistance. Itisalsokey toraisingenoughfundssupport people aredisplacedisessentialforplanningadequate Understanding how many children, women and older Disaggregating thedata 2.4 million 15-24 Figure 17:Total numberofIDPs inMENAasoftheend2019, byagegroup 1.5 million 0-4 5.2 million 25-59 2.8 million 5-14 -

priority intheyearstocome. characteristics. Filling these gaps shouldbe a collective lations, theirmovementsandsocialeconomic us understandhowdisplacementaffectsdifferentpopu- purposes, wealsolosethegranularitythatwouldhelp by ageandsex. to accessdataonconflictIDPspresentthisinformation cent ofthecountriesandterritoriesforwhichweareable tion partners disaggregate their figures. Less than 14 per in 2019. Despitesomeprogress,notallofourdatacollec- figures bysubnational location in2017, and bysex and age We startedtodisaggregateourinternaldisplacement the eventlevel,whichmakes themparticularlyaccurate. most reportedneeds.OCHAconductsitsassessmentsat disaggregated bysex andageinformationonIDPs’ OCHA hasadisplacementdatabasewhichcontainsdata comparisons tobemadebetweensites.InPalestine, services. Datasetsarealsointeroperable, allowingeasy rural location and their access to livelihoods and basic of shelterIDPslivein,whethertheyareinanurbanor opment agencies a better understanding of the types This gives governments and humanitarian and devel 804,000 60+ 255 When data is aggregated for reporting Whendataisaggregatedforreporting 2.4 million 15-24 5.2 million 25-59 254 - 804,000 60+ a disasterstrikes. ers toaccessthemandprovide atimelyresponsewhen camps areinremoteareas,making itdifficultforaidprovid settle despite therisk of floodingand landslides. near riverbasinsandonsteep slopeswheretheyoften gees, manyofwhomliveincampsorcamp-like settings across theregion,affectingnotonlyIDPsbutalsorefu- Secondary displacement has become commonplace in MENAoverthelastdecade. is stilllimited,butthephenomenonhasbeenaconstant a combinationofthetwo. Dataonrepeated displacements or thirdtimeasaresultofnewconflictevents,disasters part oneofthisreportinvolvedpeoplefleeingforasecond icant proportionofthenewdisplacementsreferredtoin There isenoughevidence, however, toshowthatasignif Capturing individualmovementsisstillextremely difficult. displacement Monitoring repeated monitoring totracksmall-scaledisplacementevents. of local-leveldataandreducetheover-relianceonmedia capacity tocollectdata.Thiswouldimprovetheaccuracy local authoritiesandcommunitiesinstrengtheningtheir To overcome thischallenge, governmentscouldsupport bias maycompromisenuancedandobjectivereporting. to comparedifferentsituationsandcountries,political collect andreporttheirinformationalsomakes itdifficult and evolution.Thedisparitiesinthewaymediaoutlets scale, makingitallbutimpossibletoassessitsduration up onadisplacementsituation,particularlyifitissmall- disaggregated. Itisalsorareformediaoutletstofollow information may not be validated and is unlikely to be do notproducefiguresfordatacollectionpurposes.The This approach has its problems, however. News media came from local media reports and other news platforms. disasters incountriessuchasBahrain,OmanandTunisia evidence wegatheredondisplacementassociatedwith only waytoidentifythemandfillinthegaps.Mostof Event-based monitoringoflocalmediaarticlesisthe humanitarian agenciesanddatacollectors ontheground. MENA tendtogounreportedbecauseoftheabsence challenge. Asinotherregions,small-scaledisasters Identifying small-scaledisplacementeventsisstillamajor displacement events Capturing small-scale

256 Some Some - - of theirdisplacement, whichweakens theirresilience Many IDPs also losepart or all of their income as aresult and property. years and struggle to restoreor rebuild their homes, land strikes, butmanyremaindisplacedformonthsoreven Some peopleareabletoreturnquicklyafteradisaster tion thatitisoverwhelminglyashort-termphenomenon. displacement areunusual,whichfeedsthemisconcep at thetimethatpeoplearedisplaced.Follow-upsduring disaster displacement,becausemostdataiscollected the duration of displacement. This is particularly true of Available datararelyprovides afullunderstandingof of displacement Measuring theduration stand IDPs’ vulnerabilitiesandcopingcapacities. the secondtime. and earlyMarch2020involvedpeoplefleeingforatleast the lastmajoroffensiveonIdlibbetweenDecember2019 that more than half of the displacements recorded during people havebeenforcedtoflee. Itshows,for example, HNAP’s dataalsotellsushowmanytimesdisplaced returnees becomingdisplacedagain. about thesustainabilityofreturnsandlikelihood of and conflictdynamics.Italsoprovidesmoreinformation which gives us a better understanding of displacement displaced forthefirstorsecondtimeintheirsurveys, now includes questions about whether people were between primaryandrepeateddisplacements.IOMDTM Programme (HNAP)inSyria havestartedtodifferentiate IOM DTM inIraqandtheHumanitarianNeedsAssessment Syria andYemen. challenging in complex and volatile situations such as ed. (CCCM) clusterstandards,whicharecurrentlybeingtest 2014 andthecampcoordinationmanagement Global Strategy forSettlementandShelterpublishedin of disastersincamps.Goodexamples includeUNHCR’s and managementguidelinesintendedtoreducetherisk The internationalcommunityhasdevelopedcoordination disasters. ment as result of forced eviction as well as conflict and conditions. Heretheyfacetheriskofsecondarydisplace exposed to natural hazards, where they live in precarious Many otherIDPsmovetourbanandperi-urbanareasoften 258 Theirimplementation,however, hasprovedhighly 257 259 Thisevidencehelpsustobetterunder

- - - - 71 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Settings where conflict and drought occur together pose Settings whereconflictand drought occurtogetherpose migration driven byalack ofsocioeconomic opportunities. to distinguishbetweendisplacement andothertypesof People tendnottofleeenmasse, anditisoftendifficult long periodsoftime, asdoesanyassociateddisplacement. not uniquetoMENA.Slow-onsetdisastersevolveover ification andotherslow-onsetphenomenaisachallenge Capturing displacementassociatedwithdrought,desert- change slow-onset hazards andclimate Understanding displacement by level anddesigningoradjustingrecoveryplans. would behelpfulinassessingtheissueatnational could compileandaggregatesuchinformation,which they achieve solutions. NationalauthoritiesandNGOs for several months after a disaster and monitoring when emulate these efforts by keeping trackof where IDPs are once andonlyformajordisasters.Local authoritiesshould Such detailed assessments, however, are only carried out tions severalmonthsafterthedisaster. response wasstructuredandshedlightonIDPs’ condi- half ofthosedisplacedwerechildren,revealedhowthe after thecountry’s 2019 floods. It showed that around Iranian governmentconductedacomprehensivePDNA efforts havesupportedthoseaffected,includingIDPs.The ment takes place and how recovery and reconstruction an understanding of the overall situation in which displace displaced intheaftermathoflargedisasters.Theyprovide valuable waytoassess the numberofpeoplewhoremain Post-disaster needsassessments(PDNAs)areanother bring theirdisplacementtoasustainableend. assessments thathelptorevealhowpeopleareable It can also be used to produce return indexes and severity home. Suchinformationinformslong-termrecoveryefforts. and helptoidentifythedifficultiestheyfaceinreturning tions. Theyalsoshedlightontheirneedsandexpectations on IDPs’ locationandtheirperspectivesondurablesolu- over time. Itsassessmentscontaindetailedinformation countries are a good example of tracking displacement The regularupdatesIOMDTM publishesinanumberof investments fromdonorsandfinancialinstitutions. Governments could also use such data to seek long-term would helptoquantifytheseissuesandfillthegaps. to futureshocks. Tracking thedurationofdisplacement 260

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community recoveryandstabilisation. framework, andeffortsare also underwaytoinvestin into thegovernment’s reconstructionanddevelopment still live in protracted displacement. The results have fed as theworstaffected,sheddinglightonwhymanyIDPs The housing,healthandeducationsectorswereidentified governorates. identify recoveryandreconstructionneedsacrossseven ments toestimatetheimpact of the country’s conflict, and all lineministriestoconductdamageandneedsassess- community, Iraq’s MinistryofPlanningcollaboratedwith ing ofeffectivepolicies.Withsupportfromtheinternational how collaborationanddatasharingcansupportthetailor The caseofIraqshowsthisispossibleanddemonstrates create bridgesbetweenevidenceandpolicymaking. bodies shouldalsobeencouraged,becauseithelpsto policy development.Collaborationbetweengovernment unavailable in a format suitable for sector planning or that doexist arerarelyupdatedandthemetricsoften datasets ondisasterandconflictdisplacement.Those and NGOs. Few governments in MENA have centralised decade hasbeentheresultofworkUNagencies Most ofthedisplacementdatacollectedoverlast ownership Improving coordination and of anyassociateddisplacement. and Tunisia, but none include the prevention or monitoring desertification, includingAlgeria,Egypt,Jordan,Morocco Several countries in MENA have adopted policies on many stayedwithintheirgovernoratesoforigin. displaced by water scarcity moved to urban areas, and that ment patterns.Itshowed,forexample, thatmostfamilies however, provideuswithusefulinsightsaboutdisplace- when peopleweredisplacedorforhowlong.Thedatadid, able forIraq,andeventhereitwasdifficulttodetermine Drought displacementfiguresintheregionareonlyavail the interplaybetweenthem. additional problemsinthissense, anditishard toanalyse efforts tothenext levelbyincludingsuchprovisions. and preventing future displacement. and preventingfuturedisplacement. information isvitalwhenitcomestoplanningresponses 262 Theycouldtake their

261 Such Such - - abroad. refugees hadbeeninternally displacedbeforetheyfled that around 58 percent of Iraqi refugees and returning gaps in MENA. Interviews we conducted in 2018 reveal There havebeensomepositivestepstowardfillingthese and returningrefugees. and longer-termpoliciesondurablesolutionsforbothIDPs leaving important knowledge gaps that impede responses to fullyunderstandthescaleofphenomenainvolved, uum ischallenging.Thedatanotcomprehensiveenough that play a role in the dynamics of this displacement contin Measuring andunderstandingthepushpullfactors refugees also go back to a life of internal displacement. they neededintheircountryoforigin.Manyreturning crossed bordersforlackoftheprotectionandassistance Many refugeesandasylumseekers wereonceIDPswho on separately, butinrealitytheyareoftenintertwined. Internal andcross-bordermovementsarereported continuum Addressing thedisplacement other solutionsaregenuinelysustainable. potentially vitalroletoplayinensuringthatreturnsand consolidation andclosures.Theseinstitutionshavea governorate returns committees, which focus on camp coordinating sustainablereturnsandsupportingthe Mosul, the secretariat has the overarching objective of the endof2019. FromitsofficesinBaghdad,Erbiland Returns CommitteeSecretariatwerealsoestablishedat The IraqDurableSolutionsNetworkandtheGovernorate family reunification. documentation, compensation, property restitution and strengthening thecapacityofinstitutionsresponsiblefor ploded ordnance, providingIDPswithlegalsupportand voluntary returns. Thishas included clearingunex tion andcreateconditionssuitableforsafe, dignified and helped toaddressthesocialdimensionsofreconstruc where moreinvestmentisneeded. or homeareas.Italsohelpstoidentifygeographicalareas and obstacleswhenitcomestogoingbacktheirhomes the country. ThishelpstounderstandIDPs' mainpriorities IOM and its partners recently developed a return index for ery and resilience programme in February 2018 that has ery andresilienceprogrammeinFebruary2018thathas Supported bytheUN,governmentlaunchedarecov- 266 Most had been displaced during the conflict Mosthadbeendisplacedduring theconflict 263

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cross borders again. cross bordersagain. ing adurablesolutionathome, somereturningrefugees aging hostcountriesnotto press forthemtogohome. returns meansmeetingrefugees’ basicneedsandencour- of internaldisplacement,and thatpreventingpremature movements meansaddressing thecausesandimpacts These dynamics tell us that preventing future cross-border access services. the conflicthasabated,theystruggletogetjobsand in Syria face similarchallenges.Eveninprovinceswhere basic servicesandfewlivelihoodopportunities.Returnees Others stillfoundtheirhomesintactbutfacedalackof them toliveinrentedhousingordisplacementcamps. Others hadreturnedtofindtheirhomesdestroyed,forcing of origin,mostlybecausethelacksecuritythere. refugees wesurveyedinIraqwerelivingtheirareas of internaldisplacement.Fewerthanhalfthereturning Many refugees who return prematurely end up in a life discrimination intheirhostcountries. also donesoafterexperiencing economicdifficultiesand in Jordan.ManypeoplewhohavereturnedtoSyria have services inSyrian refugeecampsorlackofemployment that includedrestrictedmovementandlimitedaccessto in Iraq. ation there. This was the case for many returning refugees return totheirhomecountryregardlessofthesecuritysitu conditions thattheyeventuallyhavelittlechoicebutto Many of those who do cross borders face such harsh MENA torepeatedandprolongedinternaldisplacement. paths tointernationalprotectionexpose IDPsthroughout Europe cancostasmuch $26,000. destine natureoftravelmeansjourneysfromYemen to to irregular modes of migration are also a factor. The clan Restrictive migration policies that force many IDPs to resort research in2019, three-quartersofIDPssaidthesame. seeking refugeabroad.InYemen, whereweconducted IDPs wesurveyedsaidcosthadpreventedthemfrom to leavetheircountry, eveniftheywantto. HalfoftheIraqi Many IDPsfacedwithsuchobstaclesareunabletoafford and servicesintheirplacesofdisplacement. find safety, whileothersstruggledtoaccessemployment opportunities fordurablesolutions.Somewereunableto finally leftthecountry, itwasoftenbecausetheysawno times within their own city or further afield. When they with ISIL,andmanyhadbeenforcedtomovevarious 268 They chose to go back after enduring conditions Theychosetogobackafterenduringconditions 271 Facedwiththeimpossibilityofachiev- 269 267 These limited Theselimited 270 - -

73 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 resulting displacement have hampered the development resulting displacement havehamperedthe development part becauseongoingconflict, recurrentdisastersand internal displacementcompared withotherregions,in Few countriesinMENAhave dedicatedlegislationon management. mentions theneedtoconsiderconflictriskindisaster in theNileDelta. ciated withslow-onsetprocessessuch as sealevelrise displacement, includingtheriskofdisplacementasso displacement. Egypt’s 2011strategyrefersextensively to consider the nexus between disasters, conflict and Egypt andJordanhavedevelopedDRRstrategiesthat or publiclyavailable. national disasterlossdatabases,butnotallareuptodate for DisasterRiskReduction. national DRRstrategiesinlinewiththeSendaiFramework 22 ArabLeague members,onlysevenhavedeveloped level, butprogressindoingsohasbeenmodest.Ofthe responsibility forimplementingthestrategyatnational strategies. DRR andconflictwhendevelopinglocalnational ment andhighlightstheneedtoconsiderlinks between in theregion. 2010, recognisesdisplacementasanimportant riskfactor the narrative. Itsfirstversion,adoptedinlateDecember Disaster RiskReduction, however, showssignsofchanging displacement asafactorofcrisisrisk.TheArabStrategy for and not all policies that touch on these issues consider (DRR), peacebuildinganddurablesolutionshasbeen slow, in terms of policy development on disaster risk reduction Such a shift has begun to take root in MENA, but progress stand thedriversofcrisisrisk. reflecting aparadigmshiftinthewaywedefineandunder tion inbothresearchandpolicymakingrecentyears, The disasters-conflictnexus hasgainedincreasingatten- evidence, however, toarguethattheyareintertwined. ters as distinct triggers of displacement. There is enough The figuresinthisreportdifferentiateconflictanddisas- disasters nexus Working ontheconflict- continuum, bothincountriesoforiginandabroad. of displacedcommunitiesalongtheentiredisplacement Aholisticapproachisneeded toaddressthevulnerabilities A decade later, the updated version reinforces the argu- 274 It also asserts that states have the prime Italsoassertsthatstateshavetheprime 273 278

277 Jordan’s strategyfor2019to2022 276

275 About half have established Abouthalfhaveestablished 272

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and reducing conflict and disaster risk, but the progress and reducingconflictdisasterrisk,buttheprogress strated politicalcommitmenttoaddressingdisplacement These examples showthatsomecountrieshavedemon- crisis risk. crisis risk. Only inthiswaywilltheyaddress akey factorinoverall ing displacementandreducing theriskofitoccurring. DRR shouldbebetteraligned towardthegoalofprevent- and initiativesondurablesolutions,conflictresolution ity ofthephenomenon.Thistellsusthatpolicyframeworks made sofar pales in comparison with the scale and sever international organisationsonaidprovision. Tripoli. Bothagenciescollaborateandcoordinatewith prime minister’s officein andestablishedacommittee Libya createdacommissiononIDPsin2013underthe people's displacement. differences inareasoforigincontinuetoprolongmany and resettlement,despitethefactthatethnicreligious tions alsotendstofavourreturnsoverlocal integration support mechanisms. local authorities, making it difficult for them to access slow. displacement in 2008, but its implementation has been Iraq developed a comprehensive national policy on try’s differentadministrations. which had led to a deepening divide between the coun- and capacities,theescalationofconflictsince2014, the result of significant shortfalls interms ofresources The policy, however, remains largelyunimplemented, sets outclearresponsibilitiesandfocalpointinstitutions. of housing,employment,trainingandrecovery. Italso that underscorestheneedtoprotectandassistIDPs. adopted anationalpolicyoninternaldisplacementin2013 Only IraqandYemen havespecificinstruments. Yemen ble solutionsandriskreduction. humanitarian aid has important shortfalls in terms of dura concern, becausethecountry’s relianceoninternational to dealwiththechallenge. Thisshouldbeacausefor in theworld,doesnothaveinstitutional arrangements Syria, thecountrymostaffectedbyinternaldisplacement of policiesthataddresscrisisriskmorecomprehensively. affected communities by making provisions in the areas affected communitiesbymakingprovisionsintheareas the future. ItcontainsspecificsupportforIDPsandother displacement and create mechanisms to cope with it in covers conflictanddisasters,isintendedtoprevent 282 IDPs have reported difficulties in registering with IDPshavereporteddifficultiesinregisteringwith 283 284 Anyassistancefordurablesolu-

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280 It It - - Hamzeh is a 20-year-old university student, joinded a Hamzeh isa20-year-olduniversity student,joindeda communities in Jordan to pay his tuition fees, communities inJordantopay his tuitionfees, livelihood programmeforrefugees andhost NRC, December 2018

75 Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 77 Conclusion Current Ways forward challenges and policy opportunities

Measuring There are no accurate estimates on how Better understanding of the financial costs the social and displacement affects the social and economic and social repercussions of displacement economic well-being of IDPs, host communities and local will enable more efficient planning and more and national governments in MENA. effective humanitarian responses, sustainable impacts of The Arab Spring opened a new chapter in MENA’s history. All of the above issues touch on the challenges of address- development interventions and support for displacement durable solutions. It prompted a wave of social unrest across the region, and ing displacement, but they could also be looked at from in some countries long-running armed conflict and unprec- the perspective of solutions. There is not, however, a solid edented internal displacement. Most of that recorded over repository of good practices and solutions currently avail- Disaggregating Women, children, elderly and disabled people Assessing the demographic composition the past decade was triggered by conflict and violence, able. All stakeholders working on DRR, peacebuilding the data face different impacts and challenges in coping of IDPs means policies and operations can with displacement, but few national-level be tailored to the differentiated impacts of but disasters also forced hundreds of thousands of people and durable solutions need to identify the practices, inter- datasets are disaggregated, which limits our displacement on specific populations and age from their homes each year. The drivers and impacts of ventions and policy options that have been successful in understanding of these differences. groups. Such data will also allow countries to conflict and disasters have become increasingly inter- reducing displacement and displacement risk. By doing report on the Sustainable Development Goals twined and contribute to making displacement chronic this, we will collectively move from addressing problems and other national and international frame- and protracted. to strengthening long-term solutions. works for monitoring progress.

In order to break this vicious cycle of instability and vulner- Capturing Few datasets capture small-scale displace- Strengthening local-level capacities to moni- ability, a renewed focus is needed on how crisis risk is small-scale ment events, particularly those triggered by tor displacement will help to reveal how the generated and how peacebuilding, DRR and sustainable displacement disasters and localised conflict and violence. phenomenon manifests at a more granular The reliance on media monitoring to capture level. More reliable data on small-scale events development efforts can be adjusted to changing and events complex realities. Having reliable, timely and accurate these events make estimates less reliable. will also inform local action on solutions and risk reduction. data on the scale, duration, risk and impacts of internal displacement will be a key step. Measuring the Many IDPs are forced to flee for a second or Monitoring IDPs’ conditions after they are More evidence and a solid baseline on displacement duration of third time, contributing to protracted displace- displaced, and assessing when they have ment across MENA. Measuring this is still a been able to put an end to their displacement will be vital in bolstering political commitment and driv- displacement challenge, and the data gaps mean we do not is essential. This will allow countries to identify ing action. Strengthened technical, human and financial fully understand the causes. successful practices that can be replicated to capacity to monitor the phenomenon will be essential reduce vulnerability and risk. to reducing the trends presented in this report. For this to happen, significant investment needs to be made in The relationship between these phenomena Returning refugees and IDPs face similar the following areas: Measuring the social and economic Addressing the in the region is not adequately measured or obstacles to durable solutions. A holistic re- impacts of displacement, disaggregating the data, captur- displacement continuum understood. When and why IDPs cross bor- sponse is needed to address the vulnerabili- ing small-scale displacement events, measuring the ders and how refugees return to a life of inter- ties of communities affected by displacement duration of displacement, addressing the displacement nal displacement are among the main ques- irrespective of their displacement status. continuum, working on the disasters-conflict nexus (see tions that need to be answered. Planning and policy for IDPs should be inte- the Table). grated with that for returning refugees.

Working on the Data on conflict and disaster displacement Considering the nexus between the different disasters- is collected separately, and interventions triggers and drivers of displacement will al- conflict nexus are addressed in silos. There is enough evi- low policymakers and responders to design dence, however, to show that they form part interventions that address those common to of the same equation. conflict and disasters. This will contribute to reducing overall crisis risk. Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Region 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa Flows: The number of individuals or instances of Return: For internal displacement, return implies Urban area: Given the lack of an agreed definition 79 Glossary displacement that cause the total number of IDPs (stock) movement from the place of displacement back to the on what an urban area is, for the purposes of this report, to increase or decrease. Flows include new displacements, place of former habitual residence, ideally the former an urban area is defined as “a spatial concentration of returns, cross-border displacement, settlement elsewhere, home. In the case of cross-border displacement, return people and wealth that is usually reliant on a cash-based and local integration. signifies movement from the host country back to the economy, with relationships between the two shaped and country of origin. regulated by a set of political, social, legal and economic Forced evictions: The permanent or tempo- institutions”. In this sense, both towns and cities are consid- rary removal against their will of individuals, families and/ Returnees: A distinction should be made between ered here as urban areas.298 or communities from the homes and/or land which they ‘returning refugees’ and ‘returning IDPs’. In the case of occupy, without the provision of, and access to, appropri- internal displacement, a returnee is a former IDP who, Urban displacement: encompasses forced Armed Conflict: An armed confrontation ate forms of legal or other protection.292 based on a voluntary and informed decision, has returned movements of people from rural to urban areas (rural-ur- between the armed forces of states (international armed in safety and dignity to their place of former habitual resi- ban), from urban to rural areas (urban-rural), between conflict) or between governmental authorities and organ- Informal settlements: The term is used in dence. Former refugees or migrants who cannot go back (inter-urban) and within urban areas (intra-urban). ised armed groups or between such groups within a state this report to denote the wide spectrum of inadequate to their former habitual residence for one of the reasons set (non-international armed conflict).286 housing. While context specific, the mostly widely appli- out in the Guiding Principles and are unable to sustainably Vulnerability: The characteristics determined cable is probably that used by UN-Habitat which includes: integrate elsewhere are IDPs. Similarly, former refugees or by physical, social, economic and environmental factors Communal Violence: Violence perpetrated i) residential areas where inhabitants have no security of migrants who, after their return, are forced to flee or leave or processes which increase the susceptibility of an indi- across ethnic, religious or communal lines that has not tenure and may squat or rent informally; ii) neighbour- their home or place of habitual residence for one of the vidual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of met the threshold of a non-international armed conflict. hoods that lack basic services and infrastructure, and iii) reasons set out in the Guiding Principles, are also IDPs. hazards.299 Communal, in particular inter-communal violence can over- housing that may not comply with planning and building lap to a significant extent with political violence with one regulations and may be built in environmentally sensitive Risk: The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or type of violence triggering the other.287 areas.293 damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined Cross-border displacement: Forced Locally integrated: A situation where former probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulner- movement of persons across borders, whether as a result IDPs who, based on a voluntary and informed decision, ability and capacity.296 of conflict, disasters, or other drivers of movement includ- have achieved safe, dignified and sustainable integration ing development projects, irrespective of legal status in in the location they were displaced to. Those who do not Stock: Number of individuals living in situations of receiving countries.288 meet the criteria set out in this definition should still be internal displacement as a result of conflict, disasters, or considered to be IDPs. other drivers of displacement at any given point in time. Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of In the absence of durable solutions, the stock figure may a community or a society at any scale due to hazardous Protracted displacement: A situation include IDPs who have attempted to return to their areas events interacting with conditions of exposure, vulnerabil- in which the process for securing a durable solution to of origin, resettle elsewhere, or integrate locally in their ity and capacity, leading to one or more of the following: displacement is stalled, and/or IDPs are marginalised as place of displacement. human, material, economic and environmental losses and a consequence of a lack of protection of their human impacts.289 rights.294 Trigger: Event in the wider environment that threaten people’s security. Triggers may or may not lead to displace- Driver of displacement: Underlying struc- Relocation: The act of moving evacuated people ment as people evaluate the level of threat posed by an tural factors that combine, overlap and accumulate to to a place where they stay until return or settlement else- event to their immediate physical and economic security enable a crisis to erupt. Synonyms include root cause, where in the country becomes possible (temporary), or the and their capacity to flee their homes. While these events push factor, or stressor. Examples of displacement drivers act of moving people to another location in the country directly trigger displacement, they come about as a result include environmental (e.g. desertification), social (e.g. and settling them there when they no longer can return to of the complex interaction of multiple underlying drivers.297 ethnic tensions), political (e.g. corruption), and economic their homes or place of habitual residence (permanent).295 (e.g. poverty or inequality).290 Resettlement: A situation where former IDPs who, Durable Solutions: In the context of inter- based on a voluntary and informed decision, have settled nal displacement, a situation where internally displaced in a location other than their place of former habitual resi- person no longer have any specific assistance and protec- dence or place of displacement, and have achieved safe, tion needs that are linked to their displacement and can dignified and sustainable integration in this location. enjoy their human rights without discrimination on account 291 of their displacement. 2010-2019 Region Internal Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa battle forAleppo –UN-mandatedinquiryon Syria” 1March 9 Russia’s Interventionin Syria” 31October 2019. 8 economic downturn” 16June2020. 7 ber 2020. https://reporting.unhcr.org/jordan, accessed:26Novem- ber 2020; UNHCR, “Jordan | Global Focus” , available at: reporting.unhcr.org/node/2520 UNHCR, “Lebanon |GlobalFocus”, availableat:https:// Consequences of the Conflict in Syria” 17 June 2020; 6 data.worldbank.org/, accessed:17November2020. 5 November 2020. does-the-world-bank-classify-countries, accessed:17 worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/378834-how- Bank classifycountries?”, availableat:https://datahelpdesk. 4 ternally-displaced-children/, accessed: 17 November 2020. data.unicef.org/resources/lost-at-home-risks-faced-by-in needed toprotectthem” 5May2020, availableat:https:// for internally displaced children andtheurgent actions 3 regional economies” December2017. 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