Washington University in St. Louis Washington University Open Scholarship All Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) Summer 8-1-2013 The pS ace to Lead Mack A. Bradley Washington University in St. Louis Follow this and additional works at: https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Bradley, Mack A., "The pS ace to Lead" (2013). All Theses and Dissertations (ETDs). 1172. https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/etd/1172 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by Washington University Open Scholarship. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) by an authorized administrator of Washington University Open Scholarship. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WASHINGTON$UNIVERSITY$IN$ST.$LOUIS University$College InternaSonal$Affairs The$Space$to$Lead by Mack$A.$Bradley A$thesis$presented$to the of$Washington$University$in$ partial$fulfillment$of$the$ requirements$for$the$degree$of$ Master$of$Arts August$2013 St.$Louis,$Missouri i © 2013$MACK$A.$BRADLEY ii TABLE$OF$CONTENTS Acknowledgements iii Dedication v Abstract vi Chapter 1: Leading from Behind p.1 Chapter 2: Shuttle, Station, and International Space p. 8 Chapter 3: We Need Our Space p. 23 Chapter 4: Economy of Space p. 30 Chapter 5: Space for Sale or Lease p. 38 Chapter 6: Space Security p. 49 Chapter 7: Houston, We Have Problems p. 56 America in search of a mission p. 57 Russia’s launch program needs a boost p. 72 Trouble in the debris belt p. 74 Living in a dangerous neighborhood p. 78 Chapter 8: Conclusions and Recommendations p. 83 Works Cited p. 95 Notes p. 100 ii3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS _______________________________________________ This project would not have been possible without the time, insight and generosity of many people. My good (and remarkably well-connected) friends Jason Cohen, Kevin Gunn and most of all Tom Gunn made introductions with many of the people whose deep experience in space policy vastly expanded my understanding of the issues involved. A redoubtable mentor, Tom not only made the right introductions but also helped me to focus my questions and thinking. Taken together, all the people mentioned here, through emails, meetings, phone calls and informal discussions helped to distill my conclusion that effective space policy is less about rockets and spacecraft, and more about leadership and determination. Brendan Curry, vice president of Washington operation for the Space Foundation, and J. T. Jezerski, currently staff to the House Science, Space and Technology Committee--both of whom have deep experience with space policy--provided crucial resources and a better grasp of the politics involved in forming space policy. Meeting with Juliane Sullivan, staff director at the House Committee on Education and the Workforce and a space policy expert, was a turning point in my thinking on this project. She helped me to ask more strategic questions and to understand the decision process that led to the International Space Station which greatly expanded my investigation. Crucially, she also turned me on to the comments of Dr. Michael Griffin, a former NASA administrator, which greatly expanded my understanding of the complexities of “commercial” space. David Patterson, managing director at Castlebridge Keep consultancy, provided an appreciation of the role of soft power and the need to inspire the public. Dr. Phillip Metzger, a planetary scientist at NASA, gave me first-hand insights on the international nature of planetary science and the commercialization of technology. This last point was also picked up by Dr. Paul G. Kaminski, chairman of the Defense Science Board, US Air Force Colonel (Ret.), former Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, former official in the National Reconnaissance Office and Air Force Systems Command, and former Director for Low Observables Technology. He was awarded the National Medal of Technology by President George W. Bush in 2006. Dr. Kaminski provided far more insight than I could give voice to within the confines of this paper. He made the important connection between space and cyber, and really helped me to understand the destructive nature of dramatic policy shifts to space related industries among many other things. My conversation with General Kevin P. Chilton (Ret.) was equally illuminating. Gen. Chilton piloted two Space Shuttle flights, STS-49 and STS-59 and commanded Space Shuttle Atlantis STS-76. He has 704 total hours logged in space. He was commanding officer, Air Force Space Command and commanding officer, United States Strategic Command, among other duties. He is a member of the United States Astronaut Hall of Fame among many other honors. Gen. Chilton contributed his tremendous expertise iii4 and knowledge of the orbital debris problem, the political realities of moving beyond Low Earth Orbit and the military realities of operations in space going back decades among many other things. All of these experts were generous with their time and insightful with their commentary, so much so that I was unable to include all of it in the confines of this particular project. I deeply appreciate their contributions and more importantly their service to the furtherance of spaceflight and to the United States. Any failings of this paper to fully understand, effectively analyze and realistically opine is mine alone and no reflection on them or their perspicacity. In addition, my family, particularly my son Devin and daughter Grace, have offered consistent and unflagging support which has seen me through the ups and downs of a far larger research and writing task than I had ever before attempted. The same is true of a legion of friends, too numerous to name. Their indefatigable encouragement kept me going through the process. Finally, my thesis director, Dr. Andew Sobel, and his work on Hegemonic Stability Theory focused my thinking and helped me to achieve a key insight whose progeny can be found throughout this paper. My sincere thanks to them all. Mack A. Bradley August 2013 iv5 DEDICATION This paper is dedicated to the following men and women: Vladimir Komarov Soyuz 1 Georgi Dobrovolski Viktor Patsayev Vladislav Volkov Soyuz 11 Roger Chaffee Virgil “Gus” Grissom Edward White II Apollo 1 Greg Jarvis Michael P. Anderson Christa McAuliffe David M. Brown Ronald McNair Kalpana Chawla Ellison Onizuka Laurel B. Clark Judith Resnik Rick D. Husband Michael J. Smith William McCool Dick Scobee Ilan Ramon Challenger STS 51-L Columbia STS-107 vii ABSTRACT$OF$THE$THESIS The$Space$to$Lead by Mack$A.$Bradley Master$of$Arts Washington$University$in$St.$Louis,$2013 Professor$Andrew$Sobel,$Chair _______________________________________________ The security and the economic health of the world, most of all the United States, have never been more dependent on outer space. Space-based systems have become critical to many nations. Public and commercial services, agriculture, finance, communications, navigation and all manner of military operations now depend on assets flying beyond the Kármán Line, the commonly accepted 62-mile-high threshold of space. In effect, the nations of the world decided decades ago to place part of their critical national infrastructure in space. Despite this, space assets have never been at greater risk, as Low Earth Orbit becomes ever more crowded. Other threats from space also loom. Some problems threaten sustainable space activity and national security, while some could pose existential threats to whole cities or in the worst case, to human civilization--notably, the hazard of human-made orbital debris, and the need to create greater space situational awareness in the near-Earth area and a planetary defense from near-Earth objects. What might be an historically narrow opportunity to become a multi-planet civilization also factors into these problems. Dealing effectively with all these issues will depend on marshaling sustained resources, which will require public understanding and support. It will also depend strong international leadership, or it will suffer from a lack of it. In Apollo, the Shuttle and the International Space Station the United States has demonstrated both the audacity for big ideas and the capacity to realize them. To face the challenges ahead, these qualities will be required in abundance. This paper will examine the three key decisions that shaped the American manned space program, Apollo by Kennedy, the Shuttle by Nixon and the space station by Reagan, along with the international context that made each possible. We will also examine the bipartisan US leadership that led to the first efforts to internationalize space, creating the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). We will go on to look at the growing importance of space to life on the ground, a primer on the space economy in 2013, the growing status of what has been (inaccurately) dubbed the commercial space sector, problems with the American manned space program, the Russian launch program and then the national security aspects of space. With this context, we will survey two of the viiii threats the international community must face down in space: orbital debris and the threat of Near Earth Objects. A third issue, human spaceflight beyond Low Earth Orbit, is an opportunity to be seized that satisfies humanity’s quest for knowledge and exploration, and also mitigates against the threat of human extinction. Finally, we will outline conclusions and recommendations for leading a coordinated international response to space security threats, secure space as a safe, peaceful, cooperative arena and take the next steps in human spaceflight. ★ viiiv “This&na)on&has&tossed&its&cap&over&the&wall&of&space,& and&we&have&no&choice&but&to&follow&it.” President)John)F.)Kennedy November(21,(1963 President$Kennedy,$right,$with$Dr.$Wernher$von$Braun$at$Cape$Canaveral,$1961 Credit:$NASA 1 LEADING$FROM$BEHIND On May 25, 1961, a joint session of the US Congress witnessed one of the Cold War’s most iconic moments.