POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT John Scales Avery July 22, 2018 2 Contents 1 MALTHUS REVISITED 1 1.1 The education of Malthus . .1 1.2 Debate on the views of Godwin and Condorcet . .2 1.3 Publication of the first essay in 1798 . .8 1.4 The second essay published in 1803 . .9 1.5 Systems of equality . 14 1.6 The Poor Laws . 16 1.7 Replies to Malthus . 17 1.8 Ricardo's Iron Law of Wages; the Corn Laws . 23 1.9 The Irish Potato Famine of 1845 . 25 1.10 The impact of Malthus on biology . 28 1.11 Malthus importance of Malthus today . 29 1.12 Limits to environmental carrying capacity . 33 1.13 What would Malthus say today? . 37 2 STEPS NEEDED FOR POPULATION STABILIZATION 45 2.1 All the needed reforms are desirable in themselves . 45 2.2 Higher status and higher education for women . 46 2.3 Primary health care for all . 47 2.4 Clean water supplies near homes . 49 2.5 State provision of care for the elderly . 49 2.6 Abolition of child labor and slavery . 50 2.7 General economic progress . 52 3 THE BATTLE FOR BIRTH CONTROL 59 3.1 Economics without ethics . 59 3.2 The reform movement . 66 3.3 Birth Control in England: The Utilitarians . 73 3.4 Birth control in the United States . 82 3.5 China and India . 87 3.6 Population projections in Africa . 92 3.7 What is the future of megacities? . 94 3 4 CONTENTS 4 WOMEN'S RIGHTS 101 4.1 Woman's rights and population stabilization . 101 4.2 Votes for women . 104 4.3 Women's political rights in other countries . 111 4.4 Educational equality for women . 111 4.5 A few Scandinavian women . 118 4.6 The Danish system today . 127 4.7 The social impact of science and technology . 128 5 WOMEN IN SCIENCE AND POLITICS 131 5.1 Women in science . 131 5.2 Women in politics . 144 6 WOMEN IN THE ARTS 159 6.1 Women in literature . 159 6.2 Women in music . 169 6.3 Women in the visual arts . 175 7 MADMEN AND ECONOMISTS 185 7.1 Population stabilization today . 185 7.2 Why are economists addicted to growth? . 187 7.3 Information-driven population growth . 188 7.4 Biology and economics . 191 7.5 Fossil fuel use and climate change . 193 7.6 Loss of biodiversity . 201 7.7 Economics without growth . 203 8 THE REFUGEE CRISIS 213 8.1 Right-wing politics and climate change . 213 8.2 Climate change as genocide . 213 8.3 The United Nations High Commission on Refugees . 214 8.4 Populations displaced by sea level rise . 215 8.5 Populations displaced by drought and famine . 215 8.6 Populations displaced by rising temperatures . 215 8.7 Populations displaced by war . 218 8.8 Political reactions to migration . 218 8.9 A more humane response to the refugee crisis . 219 9 AVOIDING EXTINCTION 225 9.1 A warning from the World Bank . 228 9.2 Permian-Triassic extinction event . 229 9.3 The Holocene (Anthropocene) extinction . 230 9.4 Global warming and atmospheric water vapor . 232 CONTENTS 5 9.5 The albedo effect . 232 9.6 The methane hydrate feedback loop . 235 9.7 A feedback loop from warming of soils . 235 9.8 Drying of forests and forest fires . 236 9.9 Tipping points and feedback loops . 238 9.10 Climate change denial . 240 9.11 Humanity betrayed by the mass media . 241 10 TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE 247 10.1 The Rights of Mother Earth . 247 10.2 Limits to growth . 252 10.3 Entropy and economics . 265 10.4 A new social contract . 272 A GODWIN 303 A.1 Political Justice ................................. 303 A.2 Enormous instant fame; The New Philosophy . 307 A.3 Things as they are ............................... 308 A.4 A few hangings needed to cast a chill over discussion . 308 A.5 William and Mary . 309 A.6 Mary's tragic death in childbirth . 310 A.7 The wave of hope crashes down . 311 B CONDORCET 313 B.1 A vision of human progress . 313 B.2 Condorcet becomes a mathematician . 313 B.3 Human rights and scientific sociology . 314 B.4 The French Revolution . 316 B.5 Drafting a new constitution for France . 316 B.6 Hiding from Robespierre's Terror . 317 B.7 Condorcet writes the Esquisse ......................... 317 B.8 Condorcet's On the Admission of Women to the Rights of Citizenship (1790) 319 Introduction One hopes that human wisdom and ethics will continue to grow, but indefinite growth of population and industry on a finite earth is a logical impossibility. Today we are pressing against the absolute limits of the earth’s carrying capacity. There are many indications that the explosively increasing global population of humans, and the growth of pollution-producing and resource- using industries are threatening our earth with an environmental disaster. Among the serious threats that we face are catastrophic anthropogenic cli- mate change, extinction of species, and a severe global famine, perhaps in- volving billions of people rather than millions. Such a famine may occur by the middle of the present century when the end of the fossil fuel era, combined with the effects of climate change reduce our ability to support a growing population. This book will attempt to discuss some of the measures that will help us to stabilize global population and to achieve a sustainable global society. Most of the material is new, but I have made use of book chapters and articles that I have previously written on these issues. Stabilizing global population Experts agree that the following steps are needed if we are to avoid a catas- trophic global famine and a population crash: 1. Higher education and higher status for women throughout the world. Women need higher education to qualify for jobs outside their homes. They need higher status within their families so they will net be forced into the role of baby-producing machines. 2. Primary health care for all. Children should be vaccinated against preventable diseases. Materials and information for family planning should be provided for all women who desire smaller families. Advice should be given on improving sanitation. 3. The provision of clean water supplies near to homes is needed in order to reduce the incidence of water-borne diseases. In some countries today, family members, including children, spend large amounts of time carrying water home from distant sources. 1 4. State provision of care for the elderly is a population-stabilization mea- sure because in many countries, parents produce many children so that the children will provide for them in their old age. 5. In many countries child labor is common, and in some there is even child slavery. Parents who regard their children as a source of income are motivated to produce large families. Enforceable laws against child labor and slavery contribute to population stabilization. 6. General economic progress has been observed to contribute to popula- tion stabilization. However in some countries there is a danger of pop- ulation growing so rapidly that it prevents the economic progress that would otherwise have stabilized population. This situation is known as the demographic trap. 7. Forced marriage should be forbidden, and very early marriage discour- aged. The battle for birth control Thomas Robert Malthus’ Essay on The Principle of Population, the first edition of which was published in 1798, was one of the the first systematic studies of the problem of population in relation to resources. Earlier discus- sions of the problem had been published by Boterro in Italy, Robert Wallace in England, and Benjamin Franklin in America. However Malthus’ Essay was the first to stress the fact that, in general, powerful checks operate con- tinuously to keep human populations from increasing beyond their available food supply. In a later edition, published in 1803, he buttressed this asser- tion with carefully collected demographic and sociological data from many societies at various periods of their histories. Malthus considered birth control to be a form of vice, and as “preventive checks” to excessive population growth he instead recommended celibacy, late marriage and “moral restraint” within marriage. Had he been writing today, Malthus would undoubtedly have agreed that birth control is the most humane method of avoiding the grim “positive checks” that prevent populations from exceeding their supply of food - famine, disease and war. The battle for birth control was not easily won. Part of the opposition to contraceptive methods came from industrialists who were happy to have an excess supply of workers to whom they could pay starvation wages. Chapter 3 of this book discusses the battle for birth control in various countries. 2 Women in public life We mentioned above that one of the most important steps in population stabilization is for women to have higher education, higher status, and jobs outside the home. These reforms, like birth control, have been vigorously opposed by the ruling classes of most countries. Chapter 4 outlines the struggle for women’s rights. while Chapters 5 and 6 discuss the history of women’s struggle for representation in science, politics, literature, music and the visual arts. Achieving a sustainable and peaceful global society The remaining chapters of the book discuss threats to the environment and the steps that will be needed to achieve a stable and peaceful global society. Here are some of the reforms that will be needed: 1. We must achieve a steady-state economic system. 2. We must restore democracy in our own countries whenever it has been replaced by oligarchy.