African Studies Centre Leiden, The Netherlands Will Sub-Saharan Africa follow North Africa? Backgrounds and preconditions of popular revolt in the light of the ‘Arab spring’ Sofiane Bouhdiba ASC Working Paper 109/2013 University of Tunis 1 African Studies Centre P.O. Box 9555 2300 RB Leiden The Netherlands Telephone +31 71 5273372 Email
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[email protected] © Sofiane Bouhdiba, 2013 2 INTRODUCTION 1 The year 2011 has undeniably been a special one for the African continent. On 14 January 2011 massive street protests in Tunisia ousted President Z. Ben Ali, a long-time North African leader, 2 leading to what has been called the ‘Jasmine Revolution’. 3 Two weeks later, Egypt successfully engaged in its own revolutionary movement. The totalitarian Libyan regime would end one year later with the brutal death of Mouammar al- Gaddafi on 20 October 2011. In the space of one year and a half, three serving presidents were forced out of office by their own people. In a contagious movement, this seemingly unstoppable wave of revolution inspired popular rebellion movements in other Arab countries. In some of them, such as Algeria, Morocco, or Bahrain, the popular contestation seems to have been abandoned by late 2012, while other countries, such as Yemen and especially Syria, are still today immersed in civil war. In 1992 Samuel Huntington referred to the political liberalization movements in Central Europe as the ‘ third democratic wave in history’.4 In the same spirit, and following the chronology of events, we could consider the Arab Spring as the ‘ fourth wave’ .