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Opening Closed Regimes Opening Closed Regimes What Was the Role of Social Media During the Arab Spring? Philip N. Howard, University of Washington Aiden Duffy, University of Washington Deen Freelon, American University Muzammil Hussain, University of Washington Will Mari, University of Washington Marwa Mazaid, University of Washington Working Paper 2011.1 www.pITPI.org - 1 - Summary Social media played a central role in shaping political debates in the Arab Spring. A spike in online revolutionary conversations often preceded major events on the ground. Social media helped spread democratic ideas across international borders. Main Findings examining political conversations in the No one could have predicted that Tunisian blogosphere, analyzing more Mohammed Bouazizi would play a role than 3 million Tweets based on key- in unleashing a wave of protest for words used, and tracking which democracy in the AraB world. Yet, after countries thousands of individuals the young vegetable merchant stepped Tweeted from during the revolutions. in front of a municipal building in The result is that for the first time we Tunisia and set himself on fire in protest have evidence confirming social of the government on December 17, medias critical role in the Arab Spring. 2010, democratic fervor spread across North Africa and the Middle East. Our research has produced three key Governments in Tunisia and Egypt soon findings: fell, civil war broke out in Libya, and protestors took to the streets in Algeria, First, social media played a central role Morocco, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere. in shaping political debates in the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring had many causes. One of these sources was social media and Our evidence shows that social media its power to put a human face on was used heavily to conduct political political oppression. Bouazizis self conversations by a key demographic immolation was one of several stories group in the revolution young, urban, told and retold on Facebook, Twitter, relatively well educated individuals, and YouTube in ways that inspired many of whom were women. Both dissidents to organize protests, criticize before and during the revolutions, these their governments, and spread ideas individuals used Facebook, Twitter, and about democracy. Until now, most of YouTuBe to put pressure on their what we have known about the role of governments. In some cases, they used social media in the Arab Spring has new technologies in creative ways such been anecdotal. as in Tunisia where democracy advocates embarrassed President Zine Focused mainly on Tunisia and Egypt, El Abidine Ben Ali by streaming video of this research included creating a unique his wife using a government jet to make database of information collected from expensive shopping trips to Europe. Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. The research also included creating maps of Bloggers also used the Internet to important Egyptian political Websites, publish information critical of the governments in Egypt and Tunisia. And www.pITPI.org - 2 - our evidence suggests that political organizations and individuals used Governments themselves also Western news sites such as the BBC recognized the power of opposition and CNN to spread credible movements equipped with social media. information to their supporters through In Tunisia, officials attempted to block the revolutionary period. The result was Facebook and other social media sites that, by using digital technologies, and arrested bloggers and others who democracy advocates created a used social media to spread critical freedom meme that took on a life of its news about the government. What they own and spread ideas about liberty and found is that democracy advocates revolution to a surprisingly large number were tech-savvy and had the help of of people. Interestingly, not a single hackers and talented computer Egyptian political Website we mapped programmers who were able to shutter linked to regional news sources such as government services online and provide Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya before the protestors with workarounds to censors. revolution. Likewise, Egypt attempted to choke off access to social media and found that Second, a spike in online revolutionary the protestors in Cairos Tahrir Square conversations often preceded major were nonetheless able to stay events on the ground. connected. The Muslim Brotherhood relied on bloggers whose servers were Determining whether online located in London and therefore conversations were driving street couldnt be taken offline. protests or whether the presence of a large volume of people in the streets Third, social media helped spread was feeding an ongoing online democratic ideas across international conversation can be difficult. However, borders. our evidence suggests that online conversations played an integral part in Our evidence suggests that democracy the revolutions that toppled advocates in Egypt and Tunisia used governments in Egypt and Tunisia. We social media to connect with others find that conversations aBout liberty, outside their countries. In many cases, democracy, and revolution on blogs and these connections helped inform on Twitter often immediately preceded Western news stories about events on mass protests. In Tunisia, for example, the ground, which in turn spread news 20 percent of blogs were evaluating about ongoing events throughout the Ben Alis leadership on the day he region. In many other cases, we find resigned from office (January 14), up that democracy advocates in Egypt and from just 5 percent the month Before. Tunisia picked up followers in other Subsequently, the primary topic for countries, where similar democratic Tunisian blogs was revolution until a protests would later erupt. Ultimately, public rally of at least 100,000 people social media brought a cascade of took place and eventually forced the old messages about freedom and regimes remaining leaders to relinquish democracy across North Africa and the power. Middle East, and helped raise www.pITPI.org - 3 - expectations for success of political political change in that country uprising. ballooned from 2,300 a day to 230,000 a day. Interestingly, the relative Twitter offers us the clearest evidence contribution of people not living in the of where individuals engaging in region diminished significantly over this democratic conversations were located period. On the day Mubarak left office, during the revolutions. We find that February 11, there were more than there were over 2,200 tweets from 225,000 Tweets outside the country Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, and that spread the news of his departure. Yemen about Ben Alis resignation on In the two weeks after Mubaraks the day he stepped aside. Over the resignation, there were an average of course of a week before Mubaraks 3,400 tweets a day about the political resignation, the total rate of tweets from crisis in Egypt by people living in Egyptand around the worldabout neighboring countries. www.pITPI.org - 4 - Opening Closed Regimes What Was the Role of Social Media During the Arab Spring? Main Report increases for civil servants and military Over the past century, the world has personnel. witnessed waves of democratization sweep into sometimes surprising Morocco and Saudi Arabia appeared to places. The last such great wave fend off serious domestic uprisings, but toppled the Berlin Wall and brought the outcomes for regimes in Bahrain, democracy to formerly communist Jordan, Syria, and Yemen remain far countries in Eastern Europe and other from certain. Democratization parts of the globe. By 2010, even movements had existed long before though some countries had slipped technologies such as mobile phones back toward dictatorship, approximately and the Internet came to these three fifths of the worlds countries were countries. But technologies have helped governed by some form of democracy.1 people interested in democracy build And in 2011, a new wave was sweeping extensive networks, create social into a region that had remained notably capital, and organize political action. devoid of democracy: North Africa and Technology may not have created the the Middle East. desire for political freedom, but it is a tool democracy advocates have used to Between January and April 2011 public their advantage. demand for political reform cascaded from Tunis to Cairo, Sanaa, Amman Egypt and Tunisia’s Tech- and Manama. This inspired people in Savvy Democrats Casablanca, Damascus, Tripoli and One reason why technology has been an dozens of smaller cities to take to the effective tool for democracy advocates streets to demand change. By May, the in Tunisia and Egypt is that both political casualties were significant: countries have relatively young, tech- Tunisias Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and savvy populations. In Tunisia, where the Egypts Hosni Mubarak, two of the median age is 30 years old, regions most recalcitrant dictators, approximately 23 percent of the 10 were gone; Libya was locked in a civil million people who live there are under war; and several constitutional the age of 14. In Egypt, where the monarchs had sacked their caBinets median age is 24, 33 percent of the and committed themselves to countrys 83 million inhabitants is under constitutional reforms. Other 14. Cell phone use is widespread in governments sought to quell unrest by both countries, with 93 mobile phone promising vast expenditures on subscribers for every 100 people in infrastructure projects, unemployment Tunisia and 67 mobile phones for every benefits, food subsidies, and salary 100 people in Egypt. Whats more, in both countries the government has 1 Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2010 censured the media, giving individuals a Edition. www.pITPI.org - 5 - strong incentive to turn to the Internet between people Tweeting in-country for credible sources of information. from those using the same hashtags Internet use in both countries is also (key words) but Tweeting outside the significant. About 25 percent of the country, we were able to determine that population in Tunisia and 10 percent of 30 percent of the people actively the population in Egypt has used the contributing to Twitter conversations Internet at least once, with much of the inside of Tunisia were women.
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