Success and Personality

The electoral success of angels and demons. Big Five, Dark Triad, and performance at the ballot box

Article forthcoming in the Journal of Social and Political Psychology Alessandro Nai, University of Amsterdam ([email protected])

Appendix

Appendix A – Elections and candidates Appendix B – Robustness checks and additional analyses Appendix C – Measures of personality reputation Appendix D – Experts

1 Appendix A Elections and candidates

Table A1. Elections

Country Election Date Albania Parliamentary election 25-Jun-17 Algeria Election of the National People's Assembly 4-May-17 Argentina Legislative election 22-Oct-17 Armenia Parliamentary election 2-Apr-17 Australia Federal election 2-Jul-16 Austria a Presidential election 4-Dec-16 Austria Legislative election 15-Oct-17 Bulgaria Presidential election 6-Nov-16 Bulgaria Legislative election 26-Mar-17 Chile Presidential election 19-Nov-17 Costa Rica Presidential election 4-Feb-18 Croatia Election of the Assembly 11-Sep-16 Cyprus Presidential election 28-Jan-18 Czech Republic Legislative election 20-Oct-17 Czech Republic Presidential election 12-Jan-18 Ecuador Presidential election 19-Feb-17 Finland Presidential election 28-Jan-18 France Presidential election 23-Apr-17 France Election of the National Assembly 11-Jun-17 Georgia Parliamentary election 8-Oct-16 Germany Federal elections 24-Sep-17 Ghana Presidential election 7-Dec-16 Iceland Presidential election 25-Jun-16 Iceland Election for the Althing 29-Oct-16 Iceland Election for the Althing 28-Oct-17 Iran Presidential election 19-May-17 Italy General election 4-Mar-18 Japan House of Councillors election 10-Jul-16 Japan Election of the House of Representatives 22-Oct-17 Kenya Presidential election 8-Aug-17 Kosovo Parliamentary election 11-Jun-17 Lithuania Parliamentary election 9-Oct-16 Macedonia Election of the Assembly 11-Dec-16 Malta General elections 3-Jun-17 Moldova Presidential election 30-Oct-16 Mongolia Election of the State Great Hural 29-Jun-16 Montenegro Parliamentary election 16-Oct-16 Morocco Election of the Chamber of Representatives 7-Oct-16 New Zealand General election 23-Sep-17

2 Nicaragua Presidential election 6-Nov-16 Northern Ireland Assembly election 2-Mar-17 Norway Parliamentary election 11-Sep-17 Romania Legislative election 11-Dec-16 Russia Election of the State Duma 18-Sep-16 Russia Presidential election 18-Mar-18 Rwanda Presidential election 4-Aug-17 Serbia Presidential election 2-Apr-17 Spain General election 26-Jun-16 The Bahamas Election of the House of Assembly 10-May-17 The Netherlands General elections 15-Mar-17 Timor Leste Presidential election 20-Mar-17 Timor Leste Election of the National parliament 22-Jul-17 UK Election of the British House of Commons 8-Jun-17 USA Presidential election 8-Nov-16 Uzbekistan Presidential election 4-Dec-16 For two-round elections (e.g., France Presidential election of April 2017), only the first round is considered. Format date: dd-mmm-yy a Re-run of the second round.

Table A2. Candidates N N Election Country Candidate Party experts experts date (BF) (DT) Albania 25-Jun-17 Lulzim Basha Democratic Party of Albania 4 2 Albania 25-Jun-17 Edi Rama Socialist Party of Albania 2 4 Algeria 4-May-17 Djamel Ould Abbes Front de Libération Nationale 2 4 Algeria 4-May-17 Ahmed Ouyahia Rassemblement National Démocratique 3 2 Argentina 22-Oct-17 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner Frente para la Victoria 8 11 Argentina 22-Oct-17 Mauricio Macri Cambiemos 3 2 Armenia 2-Apr-17 Serzh Sargsyan Republican Party of Armenia 4 5 Australia 2-Jul-16 Richard Di Natale The Greens 5 4 Australia 2-Jul-16 Bill Shorten Australian Labor Party 2 6 Australia 2-Jul-16 Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Party of Australia / Nationals 2 9 Australia 2-Jul-16 Nick Xenophon Nick Xenophon Team 8 1 Austria 4-Dec-16 Norbert Hofer Freedom Party of Austria 15 17 Austria 15-Oct-17 Christian Kern Social Democratic Party of Austria 4 7 Austria 15-Oct-17 Sebastian Kurz Austrian People's Party 5 8 Austria 15-Oct-17 Heinz-Christian Strache Freedom Party of Austria 8 7 Austria 4-Dec-16 Alexander Van der Bellen Independent candidate / The Greens 13 16 Bulgaria 26-Mar-17 Boyko Borisov Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria 5 4 Bulgaria 26-Mar-17 Korneliya Ninova Bulgarian Socialist Party 5 4 Bulgaria 6-Nov-16 Rumen Radev Independent candidate / Bulgarian Socialist Party 6 11 Bulgaria 6-Nov-16 Tsetska Tsacheva Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria 10 10 Chile 19-Nov-17 Alejandro Guillier Independent candidate / The Force of the Majority 2 7 Chile 19-Nov-17 Sebastián Piñera Independent candidate / Chile Vamos 7 2 Costa Rica 4-Feb-18 Fabricio Alvarado National Restoration Party 4 7 Costa Rica 4-Feb-18 Antonio Álvarez National Liberation Party 10 12 Croatia 11-Sep-16 Zoran Milanović Social Democratic Party of Croatia 4 4 Croatia 11-Sep-16 Božo Petrov Bridge of Independent Lists 2 3 Croatia 11-Sep-16 Andrej Plenković Croatian Democratic Union 2 6 Croatia 11-Sep-16 Ivan Vilibor Sinčić Human Shield 6 2 Cyprus 28-Jan-18 Nicos Anastasiades Democratic Rally 3 7 Cyprus 28-Jan-18 Stavros Malas Progressive Party of Working People 4 2 Czech Republic 20-Oct-17 Andrej Babiš ANO 8 6 Czech Republic 12-Jan-18 Jiří Drahoš Independent candidate 7 8 Czech Republic 20-Oct-17 Tomio Okamura Freedom and Direct Democracy 5 9 Czech Republic 20-Oct-17 Lubomír Zaorálek Czech Social Democratic Party 4 4 Czech Republic 12-Jan-18 Miloš Zeman Party of Civic Rights 9 10 Ecuador 19-Feb-17 Guillermo Lasso Creando Oportunidades 4 8 Ecuador 19-Feb-17 Lenín Moreno Alianza PAIS 8 6 Ecuador 19-Feb-17 Cynthia Viteri Partido Social Cristiano 3 4 Finland 28-Jan-18 Pekka Haavisto Green League 6 10 Finland 28-Jan-18 Sauli Niinistö Independent candidate 9 7 France 11-Jun-17 François Baroin Les Républicains 3 4 France 11-Jun-17 Bernard Cazeneuve Parti Socialiste 2 4 France 23-Apr-17 François Fillon Les Républicains 2 6

4 France 23-Apr-17 Marine Le Pen Front National 7 6 France 23-Apr-17 Emmanuel Macron En Marche 9 7 France 11-Jun-17 Emmanuel Macron La République En Marche 2 2 France 23-Apr-17 Jean-Luc Mélenchon La France Insoumise 3 7 Georgia 8-Oct-16 Giorgi Kvirikashvili Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia 5 2 Germany 24-Sep-17 Alexander Gauland Alternative for Germany 6 13 Germany 24-Sep-17 Angela Merkel CDU/CSU 13 11 Germany 24-Sep-17 Martin Schulz SPD 13 13 Ghana 7-Dec-16 Nana Akufo-Addo New Patriotic Party 5 5 Ghana 7-Dec-16 John Dramani Mahama National Democratic Congress 4 6 Iceland 28-Oct-17 Bjarni Benediktsson Independence Party 3 3 Iceland 29-Oct-16 Oddný Guðbjörg Harðardóttir Social Democratic Alliance 4 4 Iceland 29-Oct-16 Katrín Jakobsdóttir Left-Green Movement 3 4 Iceland 28-Oct-17 Katrín Jakobsdóttir Left-Green Movement 3 4 Iceland 29-Oct-16 Birgitta Jónsdóttir Pirate Party 3 3 Iceland 25-Jun-16 Davíð Oddsson Independence Party 3 3 Iran 19-May-17 Ebrahim Raisi Combatant Clergy Association 2 4 Iran 19-May-17 Hassan Rouhani Moderation and Development Party 3 2 Italy 4-Mar-18 Silvio Berlusconi Forza Italia 8 9 Italy 4-Mar-18 Luigi Di Maio Movimento 5 Stelle 6 4 Italy 4-Mar-18 Matteo Renzi Partito Democratico 5 6 Italy 4-Mar-18 Matteo Salvini Lega 6 8 Japan 10-Jul-16 Shinzō Abe Liberal Democratic Party 4 6 Japan 22-Oct-17 Shinzō Abe Liberal Democratic Party of Japan 6 8 Japan 10-Jul-16 Yukio Edano Democratic Party of Japan 4 4 Japan 22-Oct-17 Yuriko Koike Kibō no Tō 3 7 Japan 10-Jul-16 Natsuo Yamaguchi Komeito 2 5 Japan 22-Oct-17 Natsuo Yamaguchi Komeito 7 2 Kenya 8-Aug-17 Raila Odinga National Super Alliance 2 2 Kosovo 11-Jun-17 Ramush Haradinaj Democratic Party of Kosovo 9 5 Kosovo 11-Jun-17 Avdullah Hoti Democratic League of Kosovo 2 3 Kosovo 11-Jun-17 Albin Kurti Vetëvendosje 3 7 Lithuania 9-Oct-16 Algirdas Butkevičius Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 5 5 Lithuania 9-Oct-16 Ramūnas Karbauskis Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union 5 3 Lithuania 9-Oct-16 Gabrielius Landsbergis Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democr. 5 8 Macedonia 11-Dec-16 Nikola Gruevski VMRO-DPMNE 5 3 Macedonia 11-Dec-16 Zoran Zaev Social Democratic Union of Macedonia 9 15 Malta 3-Jun-17 Simon Busuttil Nationalist Party 6 5 Malta 3-Jun-17 Joseph Muscat Labour Party 4 4 Moldova 30-Oct-16 Igor Dodon Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova 6 4 Moldova 30-Oct-16 Maia Sandu Action and Solidarity 3 4 Mongolia 29-Jun-16 Zandaakhüügiin Enkhbold Democratic Party 2 3 Montenegro 16-Oct-16 Milo Đukanović Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro 5 3 Montenegro 16-Oct-16 Miodrag Lekić Key Coalition 5 8 Morocco 7-Oct-16 Abdelilah Benkirane Justice and Development Party 3 4 New Zealand 23-Sep-17 Jacinda Ardern Labour 2 2 New Zealand 23-Sep-17 Bill English National 5 4 Nicaragua 6-Nov-16 Daniel Ortega Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional 3 2 Northern Ireland 2-Mar-17 Arlene Foster Democratic Unionist Party 5 10

5 Northern Ireland 2-Mar-17 Michelle O'Neill Sinn Féin 7 7 Norway 11-Sep-17 Siv Jensen Progress Party 4 4 Norway 11-Sep-17 Erna Solberg Conservative Party 4 9 Norway 11-Sep-17 Jonas Gahr Støre Labour Party 3 3 Romania 11-Dec-16 Liviu Dragnea Social Democratic Party 6 13 Romania 11-Dec-16 Alina Gorghiu National Liberal Party 11 5 Russia 18-Sep-16 Dmitry Medvedev United Russia 8 9 Russia 18-Sep-16 Sergey Mironov A Just Russia 2 2 Russia 18-Mar-18 Vladimir Putin Independent candidate 3 5 Russia 18-Sep-16 Vladimir Zhirinovsky LDPR 5 9 Russia 18-Mar-18 Vladimir Zhirinovsky Liberal Democratic Party 3 4 Russia 18-Sep-16 Gennady Zyuganov Communist Party 4 2 Rwanda 4-Aug-17 Frank Habineza Democratic Green Party of Rwanda 3 1 Serbia 2-Apr-17 Saša Janković Independent candidate 5 6 Serbia 2-Apr-17 Aleksandar Vučić Serbian Progressive Party 3 4 Spain 26-Jun-16 Mariano Rajoy Partido Popular 2 2 The Bahamas 10-May-17 Perry Christie Progressive Liberal Party 6 5 The Bahamas 10-May-17 Hubert Minnis Free National Movement 3 6 The Netherlands 15-Mar-17 Mark Rutte People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 3 8 The Netherlands 15-Mar-17 Sybrand van Haersma Buma Christian Democratic Appeal 5 4 The Netherlands 15-Mar-17 Geert Wilders Party for Freedom 13 13 Timor Leste 22-Jul-17 Mari Alkatiri Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor 4 5 Timor Leste 20-Mar-17 Francisco 'Lú-Olo' Guterres Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor 3 2 UK 8-Jun-17 Jeremy Corbyn Labour Party 6 14 UK 8-Jun-17 Tim Farron Liberal Democrats 3 4 UK 8-Jun-17 Theresa May Conservative Party 13 10 UK 8-Jun-17 Paul Nuttall UK Independence Party 4 4 USA 8-Nov-16 Hillary Clinton Democratic Party 25 28 USA 8-Nov-16 Donald Trump Republican Party 33 34 Uzbekistan 4-Dec-16 Shavkat Mirziyoyev Liberal Democratic Party 5 5 BF “Big Five”, DT “Dark Triad”

6 Appendix B Robustness checks and additional analyses

Table B1. Personality and electoral success (second-order factors)

M1 M2 M3 M4

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value value

Independent 10.82 (5.12) 0.035 7.62 (4.92) 0.122 7.54 (5.06) 0.136 7.04 (5.17) 0.174 Incumbent 7.87 (2.56) 0.002 10.31 (2.56) 0.000 8.89 (2.86) 0.002 8.93 (2.90) 0.002 Left-right -0.74 (0.78) 0.340 -0.61 (0.76) 0.424 -0.65 (0.78) 0.400 -0.65 (0.79) 0.409 Female -0.13 (3.28) 0.969 1.09 (3.08) 0.724 1.37 (3.11) 0.661 1.65 (3.18) 0.603 Year born -0.11 (0.11) 0.323 -0.05 (0.11) 0.655 -0.03 (0.11) 0.812 -0.04 (0.11) 0.754

Negative tone -3.48 (2.27) 0.125 -2.83 (2.11) 0.180 -3.46 (2.30) 0.132 -3.64 (2.37) 0.124 Fear 5.04 (1.11) 0.000 3.69 (1.05) 0.000 4.15 (1.10) 0.000 4.19 (1.13) 0.000 Enthusiasm 5.53 (1.34) 0.000 4.27 (1.25) 0.001 4.68 (1.27) 0.000 4.79 (1.31) 0.000

PR -0.13 (2.78) 0.963 -0.37 (2.91) 0.899 -0.26 (2.92) 0.930 Effective N cand -3.47 (0.87) 0.000 -3.50 (0.91) 0.000 -3.54 (0.92) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.41 (1.31) 0.754 0.55 (1.39) 0.689 0.65 (1.40) 0.644 Presidential 4.27 (3.27) 0.192 3.84 (3.46) 0.266 3.81 (3.51) 0.277 OECD -1.67 (2.86) 0.560 -1.58 (2.98) 0.597 -1.41 (3.02) 0.642

Factor 1 -0.13 (0.85) 0.877 -0.11 (0.86) 0.894 Factor 2 -1.28 (0.98) 0.191 -1.41 (1.05) 0.182

Factor 1 ^2 -0.01 (0.23) 0.950 Factor 2 ^2 -0.27 (0.47) 0.574

Constant 204.16 (217.79) 0.349 101.98 (213.48) 0.633 58.52 (219.19) 0.789 76.25 (223.13) 0.733

N(candidates) 122 122 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 55 55 R2 0.39 0.56 0.56 0.56

Table B2. Personality and electoral success (consistency of perceived profile)

M1 M2 M3 M4

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value value

Independent 10.82 (5.12) 0.035 7.62 (4.92) 0.122 8.93 (5.15) 0.083 7.46 (4.95) 0.132 Incumbent 7.87 (2.56) 0.002 10.31 (2.56) 0.000 9.23 (2.84) 0.001 10.53 (2.60) 0.000 Left-right -0.74 (0.78) 0.340 -0.61 (0.76) 0.424 -0.38 (0.80) 0.630 -0.57 (0.77) 0.460 Female -0.13 (3.28) 0.969 1.09 (3.08) 0.724 1.87 (3.26) 0.567 1.29 (3.11) 0.677 Year born -0.11 (0.11) 0.323 -0.05 (0.11) 0.655 -0.07 (0.11) 0.536 -0.05 (0.11) 0.660

Negative tone -3.48 (2.27) 0.125 -2.83 (2.11) 0.180 -3.31 (2.26) 0.144 -3.35 (2.20) 0.129 Fear 5.04 (1.11) 0.000 3.69 (1.05) 0.000 3.86 (1.11) 0.001 3.57 (1.08) 0.001 Enthusiasm 5.53 (1.34) 0.000 4.27 (1.25) 0.001 4.40 (1.28) 0.001 4.41 (1.26) 0.000

PR -0.13 (2.78) 0.963 -0.28 (2.87) 0.921 0.00 (2.84) 0.999 Effective N cand -3.47 (0.87) 0.000 -3.51 (0.89) 0.000 -3.47 (0.88) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.41 (1.31) 0.754 1.01 (1.40) 0.472 0.45 (1.33) 0.737 Presidential 4.27 (3.27) 0.192 2.51 (3.55) 0.479 4.44 (3.34) 0.183 OECD -1.67 (2.86) 0.560 -1.95 (2.97) 0.511 -1.39 (2.94) 0.637

SD Extraversion 4.64 (3.96) 0.242 SD Agreeableness 4.39 (3.81) 0.248 SD Conscient 3.12 (3.37) 0.355 SD Emotional stab -1.48 (3.49) 0.672 SD Openness -0.60 (3.74) 0.872

SD Narcissism 0.20 (3.21) 0.951 SD Psychopathy -2.34 (3.53) 0.508 SD Machiav -0.75 (3.97) 0.849

SD all traits (avg) 5.60 (7.62) 0.463

Constant 204.16 (217.79) 0.349 101.98 (213.48) 0.633 138.87 (224.01) 0.535 96.37 (214.50) 0.653

N(candidates) 122 122 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 55 55 R2 0.39 0.56 0.63 0.65

Table B3. Personality and electoral success (trait components)

M1 M2 M3

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value

Independent 10.82 (5.12) 0.035 7.62 (4.92) 0.122 5.23 (4.86) 0.282 Incumbent 7.87 (2.56) 0.002 10.31 (2.56) 0.000 9.85 (2.86) 0.001 Left-right -0.74 (0.78) 0.340 -0.61 (0.76) 0.424 -0.74 (0.78) 0.338 Female -0.13 (3.28) 0.969 1.09 (3.08) 0.724 0.64 (3.30) 0.847 Year born -0.11 (0.11) 0.323 -0.05 (0.11) 0.655 -0.02 (0.11) 0.837

Negative tone -3.48 (2.27) 0.125 -2.83 (2.11) 0.180 -1.38 (2.36) 0.560 Fear 5.04 (1.11) 0.000 3.69 (1.05) 0.000 3.02 (1.10) 0.006 Enthusiasm 5.53 (1.34) 0.000 4.27 (1.25) 0.001 3.04 (1.33) 0.022

PR -0.13 (2.78) 0.963 0.37 (2.53) 0.883 Effective N cand -3.47 (0.87) 0.000 -3.78 (0.78) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.41 (1.31) 0.754 0.73 (1.21) 0.547 Presidential 4.27 (3.27) 0.192 4.56 (3.04) 0.134 OECD -1.67 (2.86) 0.560 -2.41 (2.63) 0.359

BF: Extraverted, enthusiastic -1.98 (2.02) 0.327 BF: Critical, quarrelsome -1.15 (1.91) 0.546 BF: Dependable, self-disciplined 1.40 (2.38) 0.556 BF: Anxious, easily upset 2.22 (1.90) 0.244 BF: Open to new experiences, complex 2.58 (2.21) 0.244 BF: Reserved, quiet 0.70 (2.18) 0.749 BF: Sympathetic, warm -2.22 (2.35) 0.346 BF: Disorganized, careless -3.51 (2.37) 0.138 BF: Calm, emotionally stable 1.41 (2.75) 0.607 BF: Conventional, uncreative -2.60 (2.05) 0.204

DT: Wants to be admired by others 2.54 (2.50) 0.310 DT: Shows a lack of remorse 3.24 (2.27) 0.154 DT: Might manipulate others to succeed 3.74 (2.30) 0.104 DT: Wants attention from others -5.52 (2.70) 0.041 DT: Tends to be callous or insensitive 0.09 (2.79) 0.975 DT: Tends to use flattery to succeed -1.56 (2.03) 0.443

Constant 204.16 (217.79) 0.349 101.98 (213.48) 0.633 55.90 (223.81) 0.803

N(candidates) 122 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 55 R2 0.39 0.56 0.63

Table B4. Personality and electoral success (alternatives measures of electoral success)

Relative success a Divergence with average result b

M1 M2 M3 M4

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value value

Independent 15.80 (15.15) 0.297 10.36 (16.68) 0.534 8.44 (5.63) 0.134 6.19 (6.04) 0.306 Incumbent 29.95 (9.04) 0.001 27.29 (9.85) 0.006 7.46 (3.08) 0.015 6.07 (3.33) 0.068 Left-right -2.68 (2.47) 0.279 -2.80 (2.60) 0.282 -1.09 (0.83) 0.190 -1.03 (0.86) 0.231 Female -0.41 (9.95) 0.967 1.51 (10.76) 0.888 0.64 (3.59) 0.859 1.07 (3.91) 0.784 Year born -0.02 (0.34) 0.947 -0.04 (0.37) 0.906 -0.07 (0.12) 0.538 -0.12 (0.13) 0.350

Negative tone 1.09 (6.92) 0.875 0.52 (7.50) 0.945 -1.57 (2.59) 0.545 -1.36 (2.76) 0.623 Fear 12.72 (3.32) 0.000 12.58 (3.58) 0.000 4.62 (1.24) 0.000 4.63 (1.32) 0.000 Enthusiasm 8.94 (3.75) 0.017 9.11 (4.07) 0.025 4.32 (1.43) 0.003 4.08 (1.53) 0.008

PR 4.48 (7.20) 0.533 5.16 (8.20) 0.529 0.87 (3.56) 0.807 -0.01 (3.88) 0.998 Effective N cand 10.99 (2.28) 0.000 11.00 (2.39) 0.000 2.76 (1.13) 0.015 2.57 (1.16) 0.026 Competitiveness 2.33 (3.57) 0.514 2.40 (3.83) 0.530 2.15 (1.71) 0.210 2.42 (1.78) 0.174 Presidential 7.53 (8.96) 0.401 9.55 (10.00) 0.340 -1.76 (4.18) 0.673 -1.42 (4.46) 0.750 OECD -6.77 (7.65) 0.376 -7.85 (8.20) 0.338 0.07 (3.70) 0.984 -0.46 (3.82) 0.904

Extraversion -9.40 (6.30) 0.136 -22.20 (27.71) 0.423 -5.61 (2.10) 0.008 -4.57 (9.46) 0.629 Agreeableness -0.85 (8.10) 0.916 4.06 (28.49) 0.887 -1.79 (2.89) 0.536 2.21 (10.20) 0.829 Conscientiousness 15.15 (7.28) 0.037 12.59 (39.42) 0.750 4.26 (2.50) 0.088 20.81 (14.28) 0.145 Emotional stability -1.20 (7.50) 0.872 -1.73 (26.37) 0.948 -1.25 (2.50) 0.617 -4.45 (9.04) 0.623 Openness 10.87 (7.09) 0.125 34.51 (25.93) 0.183 4.13 (2.43) 0.090 10.35 (8.84) 0.242

Narcissism -3.82 (8.06) 0.635 -29.19 (30.56) 0.339 -1.40 (2.96) 0.636 -17.08 (10.76) 0.112 Psychopathy 12.27 (7.84) 0.117 0.61 (33.77) 0.986 3.81 (2.69) 0.157 -8.97 (11.26) 0.425 Machiavellianism 3.74 (8.44) 0.657 31.33 (37.49) 0.403 1.40 (2.87) 0.626 21.98 (13.75) 0.110

Extraversion ^2 2.74 (6.21) 0.659 -0.03 (2.12) 0.988 Agreeableness ^2 -0.99 (7.02) 0.888 -0.80 (2.51) 0.751 Conscient ^2 0.60 (7.84) 0.939 -3.26 (2.84) 0.250 Emotional stab ^2 0.15 (5.73) 0.979 0.74 (1.98) 0.710 Openness ^2 -5.90 (6.22) 0.343 -1.79 (2.10) 0.394

Narcissism ^2 5.44 (6.29) 0.387 3.25 (2.16) 0.133 Psychopathy ^2 2.41 (7.05) 0.733 2.64 (2.38) 0.266 Machiav ^2 -6.60 (8.13) 0.417 -4.68 (2.92) 0.109

Constant -82.36 (660.67) 0.901 -36.08 (729.01) 0.961 86.74 (237.08) 0.714 162.10 (254.20) 0.524

N(candidates) 122 122 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 55 55 R2 0.51 0.52 0.45 0.47

Note: All models are random-effect hierarchical linear regressions (HLM) where candidates are nested within elections. Minimum two experts per candidate. a “Relative success” is measured as the ratio between the percentage of votes for the candidate and the “average” percentage that a candidate should have received (100% / number of effective candidates). Thus, a relative success of 250 means that the candidate received 2.5 times the votes of the average candidate in that election. b “Divergence with the average result” is calculated as (100% / number of effective candidates). Thus, a divergence of 15 means that the candidate received 15% of votes more than the “average” candidate. Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

Table B5. Personality and electoral success (fractional logit models)

M1 M2 M3 M4

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value value

Independent 0.59 (0.24) 0.014 0.34 (0.23) 0.131 0.24 (0.23) 0.286 0.13 (0.24) 0.583 Incumbent 0.44 (0.13) 0.001 0.58 (0.11) 0.000 0.55 (0.10) 0.000 0.50 (0.11) 0.000 Left-right -0.04 (0.04) 0.327 -0.03 (0.04) 0.431 -0.03 (0.03) 0.319 -0.03 (0.03) 0.319 Female 0.05 (0.14) 0.718 0.08 (0.12) 0.488 -0.01 (0.13) 0.949 0.01 (0.13) 0.959 Year born -0.01 (0.01) 0.273 -0.00 (0.01) 0.797 -0.00 (0.01) 0.536 -0.00 (0.01) 0.471

Negative tone -0.09 (0.12) 0.481 -0.09 (0.11) 0.394 -0.03 (0.10) 0.720 -0.06 (0.11) 0.581 Fear 0.25 (0.05) 0.000 0.17 (0.05) 0.000 0.18 (0.05) 0.000 0.18 (0.05) 0.000 Enthusiasm 0.22 (0.07) 0.002 0.17 (0.06) 0.003 0.17 (0.05) 0.001 0.18 (0.05) 0.001

PR 0.02 (0.11) 0.842 0.04 (0.10) 0.698 0.06 (0.11) 0.590 Effective N cand -0.18 (0.04) 0.000 -0.19 (0.03) 0.000 -0.19 (0.03) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.04 (0.05) 0.480 0.05 (0.05) 0.340 0.06 (0.06) 0.321 Presidential 0.25 (0.13) 0.061 0.26 (0.11) 0.018 0.29 (0.12) 0.017 OECD -0.09 (0.10) 0.386 -0.07 (0.10) 0.482 -0.08 (0.10) 0.447

Extraversion -0.24 (0.08) 0.004 -0.32 (0.30) 0.298 Agreeableness -0.02 (0.10) 0.863 -0.05 (0.35) 0.880 Conscientiousness 0.27 (0.10) 0.005 0.26 (0.58) 0.648 Emotional stability -0.09 (0.09) 0.309 -0.08 (0.36) 0.817 Openness 0.27 (0.10) 0.007 0.61 (0.32) 0.061

Narcissism -0.11 (0.12) 0.366 -0.40 (0.37) 0.282 Psychopathy 0.20 (0.11) 0.074 -0.18 (0.47) 0.707 Machiavellianism 0.06 (0.13) 0.658 0.81 (0.49) 0.102

Extraversion ^2 0.01 (0.07) 0.838 Agreeableness ^2 0.02 (0.09) 0.834 Conscient ^2 0.00 (0.11) 0.977 Emotional stab ^2 -0.00 (0.08) 0.996 Openness ^2 -0.08 (0.08) 0.302

Narcissism ^2 0.06 (0.07) 0.395 Psychopathy ^2 0.08 (0.10) 0.396 Machiav ^2 -0.17 (0.10) 0.104

Constant 7.79 (9.92) 0.432 0.57 (10.22) 0.956 3.17 (9.98) 0.750 4.70 (10.97) 0.668

N(candidates) 122 122 122 122 Log pseudolikelih. -70.71 -69.34 -68.76 -68.69

Note: All models are fractional logit models. Minimum two experts per candidate. The dependent variable is “absolute success”, measured as the proportion of votes the candidate received in the election (0-1 variable). Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

11 Table B6. Personality and electoral success (additional controls at the country level)

M1 M2 M3 M4

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value value

Independent 10.82 (5.12) 0.035 12.47 (5.10) 0.015 11.26 (5.47) 0.039 10.59 (6.19) 0.087 Incumbent 7.87 (2.56) 0.002 9.51 (2.82) 0.001 8.87 (3.33) 0.008 7.60 (3.73) 0.042 Left-right -0.74 (0.78) 0.340 -0.62 (0.81) 0.446 -0.55 (0.86) 0.518 -0.30 (0.92) 0.747 Female -0.13 (3.28) 0.969 1.00 (3.24) 0.756 -0.24 (3.53) 0.946 -0.30 (3.74) 0.936 Year born -0.11 (0.11) 0.323 -0.09 (0.11) 0.437 -0.07 (0.12) 0.519 -0.11 (0.13) 0.380

Negative tone -3.48 (2.27) 0.125 -0.43 (2.32) 0.853 -1.07 (2.59) 0.678 -1.53 (2.82) 0.588 Fear 5.04 (1.11) 0.000 5.41 (1.16) 0.000 5.44 (1.26) 0.000 5.62 (1.36) 0.000 Enthusiasm 5.53 (1.34) 0.000 4.08 (1.27) 0.001 4.11 (1.30) 0.001 4.07 (1.42) 0.004

PR 1.73 (3.26) 0.594 2.04 (3.30) 0.537 1.73 (3.82) 0.651 Effective N cand -3.64 (0.83) 0.000 -3.79 (0.85) 0.000 -3.96 (0.90) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.74 (1.33) 0.576 1.62 (1.38) 0.243 2.11 (1.49) 0.157 Presidential 1.05 (3.46) 0.761 0.63 (3.58) 0.860 0.30 (4.01) 0.940 OECD -5.07 (4.34) 0.243 -3.68 (4.59) 0.423 -4.61 (5.02) 0.359 Economic Fitness a 0.65 (0.84) 0.437 0.50 (0.86) 0.561 0.68 (0.94) 0.471 Reg: MENA b -3.18 (6.47) 0.623 -1.05 (6.93) 0.880 -0.79 (7.60) 0.917 Reg: Sub-Sah Africa -10.87 (7.30) 0.137 -8.60 (7.73) 0.266 -7.27 (8.33) 0.383 Reg: Lat Am & Car -12.24 (6.04) 0.043 -10.62 (6.17) 0.085 -12.80 (6.81) 0.060 Reg: Ctr & S Asia 14.19 (8.15) 0.082 11.83 (8.69) 0.174 12.32 (9.37) 0.189 Reg: E & SE Asia -13.51 (6.09) 0.026 -11.04 (6.15) 0.073 -12.24 (7.19) 0.089 Reg: E Europe -5.61 (4.48) 0.210 -3.36 (4.70) 0.474 -3.72 (5.35) 0.488 Reg: S Europe -8.91 (5.17) 0.085 -8.11 (5.26) 0.123 -9.32 (6.15) 0.130

Extraversion -4.30 (2.35) 0.068 -1.83 (10.22) 0.858 Agreeableness -1.57 (2.80) 0.575 -6.10 (9.92) 0.539 Conscientiousness 4.64 (2.48) 0.062 18.48 (14.25) 0.195 Emotional stability -3.40 (2.50) 0.173 -5.74 (8.53) 0.501 Openness 3.39 (2.53) 0.180 7.08 (9.13) 0.438

Narcissism -0.62 (2.83) 0.826 -8.76 (10.63) 0.410 Psychopathy 2.27 (2.65) 0.391 -5.94 (12.26) 0.628 Machiavellianism -0.02 (3.03) 0.995 13.31 (15.15) 0.380

Extraversion ^2 -0.59 (2.23) 0.792 Agreeableness ^2 1.28 (2.39) 0.594 Conscient ^2 -2.77 (2.84) 0.330 Emotional stab ^2 0.58 (1.84) 0.755 Openness ^2 -1.15 (2.23) 0.604

Narcissism ^2 1.65 (2.15) 0.444 Psychopathy ^2 1.58 (2.58) 0.540 Machiav ^2 -2.81 (3.20) 0.380

Constant 204.16 (217.79) 0.349 167.91 (220.70) 0.447 142.55 (226.29) 0.529 204.29 (246.62) 0.407

N(candidates) 122 111 111 111 N(elections) 55 49 49 49 R2 0.39 0.56 0.63 0.65

Note: All models are random-effect hierarchical linear regressions (HLM) where candidates are nested within elections. Minimum two experts per candidate. The dependent variable is “absolute success”, measured as the percentage of votes the candidate received in the election (ratio between number of votes for the candidate and total number of valid votes cast). a Economic Fitness computed by the World Bank (values for 2015), and defined as “both a measure of a country’s diversification and ability to produce complex goods on a globally competitive basis”. Higher scores reflect higher Economic Fitness. More information at https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/economic- fitness b For all regions the reference category is “Western and Northern Europe” (includes the USA, Australia and New Zealand). East & SE Asia includes Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

Table B7. Personality and electoral success (interactions with winning/losing)

M1 M2

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value

Independent 5.57 (4.90) 0.255 3.48 (4.57) 0.447 Incumbent 9.57 (2.81) 0.001 4.53 (2.96) 0.126 Left-right -0.81 (0.76) 0.290 -0.96 (0.75) 0.200 Female -0.44 (3.19) 0.889 1.90 (3.33) 0.568 Year born -0.06 (0.11) 0.577 -0.09 (0.10) 0.353 Winner 13.06 (20.25) 0.519

Negative tone -1.98 (2.24) 0.376 -1.62 (2.14) 0.449 Fear 3.89 (1.08) 0.000 2.56 (1.02) 0.012 Enthusiasm 3.93 (1.23) 0.001 3.00 (1.23) 0.015

PR -0.16 (2.64) 0.952 0.87 (2.62) 0.740 Effective N cand -3.71 (0.84) 0.000 -4.00 (0.76) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.95 (1.29) 0.461 1.31 (1.22) 0.285 Presidential 4.17 (3.20) 0.193 2.93 (2.90) 0.311 OECD -1.54 (2.78) 0.580 -1.44 (2.55) 0.572

Extraversion -4.55 (1.93) 0.018 -2.49 (2.43) 0.307 Agreeableness -0.72 (2.56) 0.780 -0.32 (3.04) 0.916 Conscientiousness 5.66 (2.26) 0.012 3.01 (2.90) 0.299 Emotional stability -2.23 (2.30) 0.330 0.40 (2.79) 0.885 Openness 4.26 (2.21) 0.054 1.35 (2.46) 0.583

Narcissism -1.98 (2.58) 0.444 -5.98 (3.13) 0.056 Psychopathy 4.16 (2.43) 0.086 4.87 (2.87) 0.089 Machiavellianism 0.84 (2.62) 0.749 1.55 (2.78) 0.577

Winner * Extraversion -3.98 (4.35) 0.360 Winner * Agreeableness 0.48 (4.82) 0.921 Winner * Conscientiousness 2.69 (5.03) 0.592 Winner * Emotional stability -6.27 (4.73) 0.185 Winner * Openness 4.20 (4.26) 0.325

Winner * Narcissism 6.07 (4.56) 0.183 Winner * Psychopathy -4.87 (5.42) 0.369 Winner * Machiavellianism -0.15 (6.20) 0.981

Constant 111.99 (210.38) 0.595 197.36 (199.84) 0.323

N(candidates) 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 R2 0.63 0.73

Table B8. Personality and electoral success (interactions with type of election)

M1 M2

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value

Independent 5.57 (4.90) 0.255 5.75 (5.16) 0.265 Incumbent 9.57 (2.81) 0.001 11.04 (3.01) 0.000 Left-right -0.81 (0.76) 0.290 -0.31 (0.81) 0.702 Female -0.44 (3.19) 0.889 -0.24 (3.20) 0.939 Year born -0.06 (0.11) 0.577 -0.11 (0.11) 0.320

Negative tone -1.98 (2.24) 0.376 -2.05 (2.26) 0.365 Fear 3.89 (1.08) 0.000 3.27 (1.12) 0.003 Enthusiasm 3.93 (1.23) 0.001 3.89 (1.23) 0.001

PR -0.16 (2.64) 0.952 0.55 (2.38) 0.817 Effective N cand -3.71 (0.84) 0.000 -3.72 (0.74) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.95 (1.29) 0.461 0.82 (1.15) 0.475 Presidential 4.17 (3.20) 0.193 10.92 (21.93) 0.618 OECD -1.54 (2.78) 0.580 -2.61 (2.57) 0.311

Extraversion -4.55 (1.93) 0.018 2.37 (6.27) 0.706 Agreeableness -0.72 (2.56) 0.780 3.65 (7.49) 0.626 Conscientiousness 5.66 (2.26) 0.012 10.08 (7.12) 0.157 Emotional stability -2.23 (2.30) 0.330 -3.29 (7.49) 0.660 Openness 4.26 (2.21) 0.054 0.92 (6.51) 0.888

Narcissism -1.98 (2.58) 0.444 -2.15 (7.61) 0.778 Psychopathy 4.16 (2.43) 0.086 -3.25 (7.86) 0.679 Machiavellianism 0.84 (2.62) 0.749 1.16 (8.02) 0.885

Presidential elect * Extraversion -5.54 (4.91) 0.260 Presidential elect * Agreeableness -3.00 (5.61) 0.593 Presidential elect * Conscientiousness -3.55 (4.94) 0.472 Presidential elect * Emotional stability 1.03 (5.36) 0.847 Presidential elect * Openness 3.68 (4.65) 0.429

Presidential elect * Narcissism 0.18 (5.85) 0.976 Presidential elect * Psychopathy 5.52 (6.12) 0.367 Presidential elect * Machiavellianism -0.51 (6.10) 0.933

Constant 111.99 (210.38) 0.595 199.44 (219.24) 0.363

N(candidates) 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 R2 0.63 0.73

Table B9. Personality and electoral success (Corrected measurement errors, Big Five)

M1 a M2 b M3 c

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value

Independent 3.51 (4.65) 0.451 5.74 (4.57) 0.212 6.15 (5.04) 0.225 Incumbent 11.66 (2.72) 0.000 11.23 (2.72) 0.000 11.41 (2.84) 0.000 Left-right -0.55 (0.75) 0.467 -0.86 (0.75) 0.254 -0.63 (0.78) 0.417 Female 1.44 (3.15) 0.648 -0.30 (2.99) 0.919 0.04 (3.11) 0.989 Year born -0.08 (0.10) 0.442 -0.10 (0.10) 0.323 -0.06 (0.11) 0.557

Negative tone -1.19 (2.07) 0.567 -0.23 (2.13) 0.915 -1.17 (2.18) 0.592 Fear 3.53 (0.99) 0.001 3.50 (1.00) 0.001 3.48 (1.05) 0.001 Enthusiasm 4.22 (1.22) 0.001 3.15 (1.15) 0.007 3.48 (1.16) 0.003

PR 1.19 (2.22) 0.594 -0.29 (2.20) 0.896 0.36 (2.23) 0.873 Effective N cand -3.57 (0.68) 0.000 -3.91 (0.71) 0.000 -3.71 (0.72) 0.000 Competitiveness 1.01 (1.07) 0.349 0.76 (1.07) 0.478 0.83 (1.11) 0.453 Presidential 4.47 (2.69) 0.099 3.90 (2.75) 0.159 4.26 (2.92) 0.148 OECD 0.14 (2.52) 0.955 -1.64 (2.30) 0.477 -0.97 (2.57) 0.707

Extraversion -11.42 (4.82) 0.020 -4.15 (1.90) 0.032 -4.99 (2.16) 0.023 Agreeableness -0.25 (2.42) 0.918 1.00 (2.59) 0.701 0.88 (3.36) 0.794 Conscientiousness 5.34 (2.20) 0.017 12.08 (4.55) 0.009 7.36 (3.55) 0.041 Emotional stability -3.70 (2.49) 0.141 -5.40 (3.13) 0.087 -5.01 (5.84) 0.393 Openness 9.10 (3.40) 0.009 4.18 (2.19) 0.059 4.77 (2.22) 0.034

Narcissism -0.69 (2.59) 0.789 -2.66 (2.44) 0.278 -2.71 (2.68) 0.313 Psychopathy 1.99 (2.70) 0.462 4.76 (2.40) 0.049 3.58 (2.59) 0.169 Machiavellianism 2.67 (2.80) 0.344 1.35 (2.57) 0.599 1.43 (2.88) 0.621

Constant 146.47 (198.33) 0.462 183.56 (202.78) 0.368 115.51 (205.01) 0.574

N(candidates) 122 122 122 R2 0.67 0.66 0.64

Note: All models are errors-in-variables linear regressions, where the measurement errors in selected independent variables (personality scales) is corrected. The dependent variable is “absolute success”, measured as the percentage of votes the candidate received in the election (ratio between number of votes for the candidate and total number of valid votes cast). Models not computed for measurement errors in agreeableness and openness, because the reliability coefficient α is lower than the R2 from a regression of the uncorrected variables on all the other variables, including the dependent variable. a Model corrected for measurement errors in extraversion (α = .74) b Model corrected for measurement errors in conscientiousness (α = .78) c Model corrected for measurement errors in emotional stability (α = .84) Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

Table B10. Personality and electoral success (Corrected measurement errors, Dark Triad)

M1 a M2 b M3 c

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value

Independent 5.16 (4.71) 0.276 5.17 (4.66) 0.270 5.22 (4.70) 0.270 Incumbent 10.98 (2.83) 0.000 10.57 (2.85) 0.000 10.35 (4.08) 0.013 Left-right -0.63 (0.79) 0.424 -0.85 (0.78) 0.276 -0.54 (1.00) 0.591 Female -1.01 (3.56) 0.777 -0.85 (3.14) 0.788 -1.73 (6.56) 0.792 Year born -0.05 (0.11) 0.622 -0.06 (0.10) 0.587 -0.06 (0.11) 0.559

Negative tone -1.11 (2.17) 0.611 -0.53 (2.17) 0.806 -3.16 (8.42) 0.708 Fear 3.63 (1.03) 0.001 3.74 (1.03) 0.000 2.93 (2.68) 0.277 Enthusiasm 3.49 (1.17) 0.003 3.18 (1.19) 0.009 4.08 (2.53) 0.109

PR 0.36 (2.24) 0.871 0.19 (2.22) 0.933 1.59 (5.18) 0.760 Effective N cand -3.68 (0.72) 0.000 -3.62 (0.70) 0.000 -4.30 (2.61) 0.102 Competitiveness 0.81 (1.11) 0.466 0.84 (1.10) 0.444 0.61 (1.37) 0.655 Presidential 4.81 (2.79) 0.087 5.05 (2.77) 0.072 3.26 (6.22) 0.602 OECD -1.42 (2.39) 0.553 -2.17 (2.45) 0.378 0.60 (8.21) 0.942

Extraversion -4.22 (2.03) 0.040 -3.71 (2.09) 0.079 -6.33 (7.17) 0.379 Agreeableness -0.54 (2.54) 0.832 0.69 (2.73) 0.801 -1.77 (5.75) 0.758 Conscientiousness 5.94 (2.28) 0.011 6.18 (2.27) 0.008 6.69 (3.94) 0.093 Emotional stability -2.29 (2.41) 0.344 -1.41 (2.39) 0.557 -4.15 (8.32) 0.619 Openness 5.10 (2.23) 0.024 5.11 (2.19) 0.021 6.38 (5.77) 0.271

Narcissism -4.09 (4.71) 0.387 -2.54 (2.51) 0.313 -8.24 (22.61) 0.716 Psychopathy 4.25 (2.46) 0.087 7.97 (4.71) 0.094 -1.57 (21.08) 0.941 Machiavellianism 1.80 (3.42) 0.600 -1.36 (3.40) 0.690 12.86 (44.92) 0.775

Constant 97.19 (210.49) 0.645 91.86 (205.28) 0.656 132.54 (210.44) 0.530

N(candidates) 122 122 122 R2 0.64 0.65 0.64

Note: All models are errors-in-variables linear regressions, where the measurement errors in selected independent variables (personality scales) is corrected. The dependent variable is “absolute success”, measured as the percentage of votes the candidate received in the election (ratio between number of votes for the candidate and total number of valid votes cast). Models not computed for measurement errors in agreeableness and openness, because the reliability coefficient α is lower than the R2 from a regression of the uncorrected variables on all the other variables, including the dependent variable. a Model corrected for measurement errors in narcissism (α = .86) b Model corrected for measurement errors in psychopathy (α = .89) c Model corrected for measurement errors in Machiavellianism (α = .78) Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

16 Table B11. Personality and electoral success (controlling for the experts’ profile)

M1 M2

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value

Independent 4.90 (5.17) 0.343 2.36 (5.66) 0.677 Incumbent 9.14 (2.89) 0.002 8.12 (3.15) 0.010 Left-right -0.88 (0.78) 0.259 -0.84 (0.82) 0.308 Female -0.89 (3.33) 0.790 -0.73 (3.67) 0.843 Year born -0.06 (0.11) 0.587 -0.10 (0.12) 0.437

Negative tone -2.76 (2.40) 0.250 -3.03 (2.62) 0.247 Fear 3.88 (1.13) 0.001 3.85 (1.21) 0.002 Enthusiasm 4.23 (1.29) 0.001 4.23 (1.41) 0.003

PR -0.32 (3.09) 0.918 -0.17 (3.43) 0.960 Effective N cand -3.60 (1.04) 0.001 -3.80 (1.07) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.76 (1.63) 0.640 0.98 (1.69) 0.563 Presidential 4.51 (3.86) 0.242 4.99 (4.17) 0.232 OECD -0.97 (3.64) 0.789 -1.11 (3.86) 0.774

Extraversion -4.65 (1.96) 0.018 -5.25 (8.88) 0.555 Agreeableness -1.10 (2.65) 0.679 -1.53 (9.59) 0.873 Conscientiousness 5.48 (2.38) 0.021 11.05 (13.23) 0.404 Emotional stability -2.04 (2.36) 0.389 -2.45 (8.53) 0.774 Openness 4.06 (2.29) 0.076 10.99 (8.30) 0.186

Narcissism -1.95 (2.68) 0.466 -8.91 (10.06) 0.376 Psychopathy 4.51 (2.52) 0.074 -5.41 (10.80) 0.617 Machiavellianism 0.64 (2.69) 0.813 19.24 (12.62) 0.127

Extraversion ^2 0.13 (1.99) 0.948 Agreeableness ^2 0.40 (2.37) 0.866 Conscient ^2 -1.07 (2.65) 0.686 Emotional stab ^2 0.10 (1.87) 0.956 Openness ^2 -1.80 (1.98) 0.364

Narcissism ^2 1.44 (2.06) 0.484 Psychopathy ^2 2.09 (2.28) 0.361 Machiav ^2 -4.14 (2.70) 0.125

Average expert familiarity a -0.19 (2.77) 0.947 -0.03 (2.92) 0.993 Average survey simplicity b 0.50 (2.12) 0.813 0.23 (2.23) 0.916 Percentage domestic experts 2.59 (8.76) 0.768 2.82 (9.14) 0.757 Average expert left-right c 0.54 (1.81) 0.764 0.81 (1.89) 0.670 Percentage female experts 5.09 (9.02) 0.572 4.62 (9.39) 0.623

Constant 109.23 (219.58) 0.619 163.16 (238.97) 0.495

N(candidates) 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 R2 0.63 0.65

Note: All models are random-effect hierarchical linear regressions (HLM) where candidates are nested within elections. Minimum two experts per candidate. The dependent variable is “absolute success”, measured as the percentage of votes the candidate received in the election (ratio between number of votes for the candidate and total number of valid votes cast). a Average score for variable measuring how familiar experts are with elections in the country surveyed (self- assessment); ranges between 0 ’very low’ and 10 ‘very high’. b Average score for variable measuring how easy or difficult it was for experts to answer questions in the survey (self-assessment); ranges between 0 ‘very difficult’ and 10 ‘very easy’. c Average ideology of experts, based on self-assessed position of left-right scale (0-10). Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

Table B12. Personality and electoral success (controlling for average personality traits per election)

M1 M2 M3 M4

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value value

Independent 10.82 (5.12) 0.035 8.03 (4.94) 0.104 5.26 (5.22) 0.314 3.97 (5.66) 0.483 Incumbent 7.87 (2.56) 0.002 9.59 (2.64) 0.000 8.90 (2.94) 0.002 7.98 (3.24) 0.014 Left-right -0.74 (0.78) 0.340 -0.61 (0.76) 0.424 -0.86 (0.77) 0.267 -0.77 (0.81) 0.347 Female -0.13 (3.28) 0.969 0.46 (3.16) 0.884 0.17 (3.34) 0.960 -0.11 (3.71) 0.977 Year born -0.11 (0.11) 0.323 -0.07 (0.11) 0.520 -0.07 (0.11) 0.550 -0.09 (0.12) 0.473

Negative tone -3.48 (2.27) 0.125 -3.14 (2.14) 0.143 -2.44 (2.36) 0.301 -2.72 (2.53) 0.283 Fear 5.04 (1.11) 0.000 3.92 (1.10) 0.000 4.10 (1.19) 0.001 4.16 (1.29) 0.001 Enthusiasm 5.53 (1.34) 0.000 4.89 (1.27) 0.000 4.51 (1.38) 0.001 4.41 (1.50) 0.003

PR 0.22 (2.77) 0.936 -0.03 (3.01) 0.993 -0.46 (3.38) 0.891 Effective N cand -3.94 (0.88) 0.000 -4.01 (0.97) 0.000 -4.02 (1.02) 0.000 Competitiveness 0.67 (1.33) 0.614 0.51 (1.47) 0.729 0.92 (1.59) 0.563 Presidential 3.31 (3.28) 0.314 3.96 (3.60) 0.272 4.39 (3.98) 0.270 OECD -0.81 (3.30) 0.805 -0.38 (3.57) 0.914 -0.96 (3.84) 0.803

AVG Extraversion -6.81 (4.74) 0.151 -1.68 (5.58) 0.764 -2.38 (5.95) 0.689 AVG Agreeableness -3.62 (4.39) 0.410 -4.02 (5.37) 0.454 -4.23 (5.79) 0.466 AVG Conscient. 7.45 (4.44) 0.093 2.81 (5.53) 0.612 1.85 (5.95) 0.756 AVG Emot. stability -3.10 (5.16) 0.549 -0.92 (6.04) 0.879 0.33 (6.41) 0.959 AVG Openness 9.48 (4.61) 0.040 6.40 (5.62) 0.255 6.84 (5.92) 0.248 AVG Narcissism -7.63 (4.02) 0.057 -10.01 (5.40) 0.064 -8.58 (6.01) 0.153 AVG Psychopathy 0.47 (5.69) 0.934 -3.55 (6.90) 0.606 -3.42 (7.29) 0.640 AVG Machiav. 7.94 (6.09) 0.192 10.49 (7.24) 0.147 9.15 (7.79) 0.240

Extraversion -4.93 (2.16) 0.022 -6.45 (9.00) 0.474 Agreeableness 0.12 (3.15) 0.969 -2.64 (10.22) 0.796 Conscientiousness 4.81 (2.69) 0.074 14.09 (13.76) 0.306 Emotional stability -2.04 (2.60) 0.433 -2.10 (8.73) 0.810 Openness 2.75 (2.47) 0.265 9.98 (8.49) 0.240

Narcissism 1.71 (3.57) 0.632 -4.52 (11.59) 0.696 Psychopathy 3.49 (2.97) 0.240 -3.69 (10.98) 0.737 Machiavellianism -1.37 (2.99) 0.646 12.47 (14.22) 0.381

Extraversion ^2 0.43 (2.01) 0.829 Agreeableness ^2 0.93 (2.47) 0.707 Conscient ^2 -1.76 (2.72) 0.517 Emotional stab ^2 -0.04 (1.90) 0.985 Openness ^2 -1.94 (2.00) 0.333

Narcissism ^2 1.19 (2.13) 0.577 Psychopathy ^2 1.52 (2.32) 0.513 Machiav ^2 -3.01 (2.92) 0.304

Constant 204.16 (217.79) 0.349 139.97 (215.57) 0.516 131.68 (217.84) 0.546 159.66 (239.19) 0.504

N(candidates) 122 122 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 55 55 R2 0.39 0.61 0.65 0.66

18 Table B13. Principal Components Analysis a. Underlying components

Component Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative

Comp 1 3.91 2.30 0.49 0.49 Comp 2 1.61 0.68 0.20 0.69 Comp 3 0.94 0.36 0.12 0.81 Comp 4 0.57 0.24 0.07 0.88 Comp 5 0.33 0.04 0.04 0.92 Comp 6 0.29 0.10 0.04 0.96 Comp 7 0.19 0.03 0.02 0.98 Comp 8 0.15 . 0.02 1.00 b. Loading scores

Variable Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Comp 4 Comp 5 Comp 6 Comp 7 Comp 8 Unexpl.

Extraversion 0.15 0.68 -0.08 -0.12 0.68 -0.09 -0.02 0.16 0 Agreeableness -0.39 0.14 0.22 0.70 0.03 -0.04 0.47 0.26 0 Conscientiousness -0.35 0.03 0.50 -0.64 -0.01 -0.14 0.44 -0.04 0 Emotional stab. -0.41 -0.09 0.47 0.06 0.22 0.23 -0.69 0.14 0 Openness -0.19 0.65 -0.09 -0.07 -0.55 0.46 -0.09 -0.09 0 Narcissism 0.38 0.25 0.41 0.08 -0.41 -0.57 -0.24 0.27 0 Psychopathy 0.44 -0.15 0.21 -0.11 -0.01 0.57 0.20 0.60 0 Machiavellianism 0.40 0.07 0.50 0.24 0.13 0.24 0.10 -0.66 0

Note. Unrotated solution. N=122

19 Table B14. Personality and electoral success (profile effects, by candidate independent status)

Coef (Se) p-value

Independent -30.88 (196.30) 0.875 Incumbent 6.83 (2.70) 0.011 Left-right -0.95 (0.72) 0.189 Female -2.55 (3.06) 0.406 Year born -0.02 (0.10) 0.860 Negative tone -0.73 (2.29) 0.748 Fear 4.54 (1.07) 0.000 Enthusiasm 3.32 (1.25) 0.008 PR -0.10 (3.01) 0.974 Effective N cand -3.40 (0.95) 0.000 Competitiveness 1.44 (1.45) 0.319 Presidential 4.44 (3.48) 0.202 OECD -2.31 (3.14) 0.463

Extraversion -4.58 (1.83) 0.012 Agreeableness -2.10 (2.48) 0.396 Conscientiousness 5.47 (2.18) 0.012 Emotional stability -2.39 (2.18) 0.271 Openness 4.57 (2.17) 0.035 Narcissism -3.50 (2.53) 0.167 Psychopathy 3.47 (2.31) 0.134 Machiavellianism 1.76 (2.45) 0.474

Independent * E -30.87 (31.71) 0.330 Independent * A 8.50 (38.93) 0.827 Independent * C -7.55 (23.21) 0.745 Independent * Es 18.94 (57.26) 0.741 Independent * O -15.77 (13.32) 0.236 Independent * N 22.43 (32.82) 0.494 Independent * P 10.46 (29.51) 0.723 Independent * M . . .

Constant 31.13 (203.04) 0.878

N(candidates) 122 N(elections) 55 R2 0.67

20 Appendix C Measures of personality reputation

To measure the five socially desirable personality traits (Big Five) we rely on the Ten Items Personality Inventory (TIPI; Gosling et al. 2003). For each trait experts had to evaluate two statements (e.g., the candidate might be someone that is ‘critical, quarrelsome’) and the underlying personality trait exists as the average value for those statements. Remember that, to keep the length of the questionnaire at bay, experts had to answer the following battery of questions regarding the Big Five for one randomly selected candidate only. The battery of questions used to measure the Big Five in our questionnaire is presented as follows:

Q. Here are a number of personality traits that may or may not apply to [candidate X]. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statements. You should rate the extent to which the pair of traits applies to [candidate X], even if one characteristic applies more strongly than the other. In your opinion, [candidate X] might be someone who is... … Extraverted, enthusiastic (c1) … Critical, quarrelsome (c2) … Dependable, self-disciplined (c3) … Anxious, easily upset (c4) … Open to new experiences, complex (c5) … Reserved, quiet (c6) … Sympathetic, warm (c7) … Disorganized, careless (c8) … Calm, emotionally stable (c9) … Conventional, uncreative (c10) [0 ‘disagree strongly’, 1 ‘disagree somewhat’, 2 ‘neither disagree nor agree’, 3 ‘agree somewhat’, 4 ‘agree strongly’]

The five personality traits exist as average values of pairs of statements, as follows (direction of some items reversed): extraversion (c1 and c6), agreeableness (c2 and c7), conscientiousness (c3 and c8), emotional stability (c4 and c9), and openness (c5 and c19).

The measure of the three “dark” personality traits (Dark Triad) follows the approach used above for the Big Five, where each trait is measured through two separate and independent components. We designed a battery of six items to measure the three “dark” traits, based on the principal component analyses described in Jonason and Webster (2010: 422). For each dark trait we identified the two items that correlate the highest with the trait, and used them as items in our battery. The battery of questions used to measure the Dark Triad in our questionnaire is presented as follows:

Q. Next, please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statements, related to personality traits that may or may not apply to [candidate X]. In your opinion, [candidate X] might be someone who... … Wants to be admired by others (c1) … Shows a lack of remorse (c2) … Might manipulate others to succeed (c3) … Wants attention from others (c4) … Tends to be callous or insensitive (c5) … Tends to use flattery to succeed (c6) [0 ‘disagree strongly’, 1 ‘disagree somewhat’, 2 ‘neither disagree nor agree’, 3 ‘agree somewhat’, 4 ‘agree strongly’]

As for the Big Five, the three “dark” personality traits exist as average values of pairs of statements, as follows: narcissism (c1 and c4), psychopathy (c2 and c5), and Machiavellianism (c3 and c6).

Tables C1 and C2 below present bivariate correlations across all components of benevolent and dark personality traits. Cells highlighted in grey represent combinations of two statements that are averaged to produce a measure for a given trait (e.g., for Table C1, c1 and c6 are averaged to create a measure of extraversion).

Table C3 compares the profile of four candidates (Trump, Rutte, Wilders and Merkel) in two samples: our experts, and students at the University of Amsterdam. As the table shows, the average profile of the four candidates in the two samples is quite consistent.

Table C1. Big Five – correlations across components

c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10

c1 coef 1 p-value

c2 coef 0.125 1 p-value 0.169

c3 coef 0.033 -0.353 1 p-value 0.718 0.000

c4 coef 0.008 0.457 -0.571 1 p-value 0.929 0.000 0.000

c5 coef 0.405 -0.288 0.459 -0.361 1 p-value 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000

c6 coef -0.583 -0.427 0.335 -0.332 0.018 1 p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.843

c7 coef 0.364 -0.498 0.452 -0.455 0.686 0.155 1 p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.089

c8 coef 0.007 0.277 -0.661 0.467 -0.277 -0.168 -0.217 1 p-value 0.935 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.065 0.017

c9 coef -0.120 -0.595 0.741 -0.731 0.464 0.558 0.604 -0.518 1 p-value 0.188 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

c10 coef -0.578 -0.146 -0.017 -0.132 -0.459 0.499 -0.251 0.037 0.179 1 p-value 0.000 0.109 0.855 0.147 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.690 0.049

Note: coefficients are Pearson’s R from bivariate correlations; N=122. The areas highlighted in grey refer to the combinations of components used for the measure of the five personality traits: extraversion (c1 and c6), agreeableness (c2 and c7), conscientiousness (c3 and c8), emotional stability (c4 and c9), and openness (c5 and c10). The 10 components in the battery of questions are as follows: c1: Extraverted, enthusiastic c2: Critical, quarrelsome c3: Dependable, self-disciplined c4: Anxious, easily upset c5: Open to new experiences, complex c6: Reserved, quiet c7: Sympathetic, warm c8: Disorganized, careless c9: Calm, emotionally stable c10: Conventional, uncreative Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

Table C2. Dark Triad – correlations across components

c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6

c1 coef 1 p-value

c2 coef 0.490 1 p-value 0.000

c3 coef 0.618 0.738 1 p-value 0.000 0.000

c4 coef 0.751 0.583 0.722 1 p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000

c5 coef 0.442 0.814 0.774 0.599 1 p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

c6 coef 0.561 0.515 0.641 0.594 0.480 1 p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Note: coefficients are Pearson’s R from bivariate correlations; N=122. The areas highlighted in grey refer to the combinations of components used for the measure of the three “dark” personality traits: narcissism (c1 and c4), psychopathy (c2 and c5), and Machiavellianism (c3 and c6). The 6 components in the battery of questions are as follows: c1: Wants to be admired by others c2: Shows a lack of remorse c3: Might manipulate others to succeed c4: Wants attention from others c5: Tends to be callous or insensitive c6: Tends to use flattery to succeed Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

Table C3. Comparison of experts and students on perceived personality of selected candidates

EXPERTS STUDENTS

Mean SD Obs Mean SD Obs

Trump Big Five Extraversion 3.61 0.61 27 3.13 0.79 256 Agreeableness 0.18 0.46 27 0.97 0.75 257 Conscientiousness 0.68 0.94 27 1.19 0.93 242 Emotional stability 0.43 0.79 27 0.90 0.89 250 Openness 1.88 1.17 27 1.34 0.82 243

Dark Triad Narcissism 3.91 0.32 33 3.65 0.55 253 Psychopathy 3.66 0.95 33 3.32 0.79 246 Machiavellianism 3.44 0.74 33 3.25 0.70 241

Rutte Big Five Extraversion 3.19 0.64 6 2.31 0.78 153 Agreeableness 2.63 0.83 6 1.98 0.62 150 Conscientiousness 3.04 0.77 6 2.96 0.70 152 Emotional stability 3.06 0.49 6 2.78 0.74 149 Openness 2.33 1.08 6 2.09 0.77 144

Dark Triad Narcissism 2.67 1.53 3 2.50 0.79 157 Psychopathy 2.00 0.58 3 1.61 0.73 148 Machiavellianism 2.83 0.79 3 2.02 0.79 144

Wilders Big Five Extraversion 2.50 1.12 10 2.84 0.82 154 Agreeableness 0.41 0.66 10 0.94 0.78 154 Conscientiousness 2.73 0.98 10 2.06 0.97 144 Emotional stability 1.63 1.29 10 1.31 1.01 147 Openness 1.50 1.21 10 1.65 0.92 144

Dark Triad Narcissism 3.11 0.87 13 3.13 0.79 154 Psychopathy 3.58 0.85 13 3.09 0.86 148 Machiavellianism 1.86 0.75 13 2.80 0.87 145

Merkel Big Five Extraversion 0.61 0.65 10 1.63 0.84 164 Agreeableness 2.35 1.22 10 1.67 0.76 163 Conscientiousness 3.79 0.48 10 3.23 0.75 165 Emotional stability 3.71 0.45 10 2.95 0.79 159 Openness 1.71 0.95 10 1.96 0.87 155

Dark Triad Narcissism 1.81 1.17 12 2.01 1.02 163 Psychopathy 1.85 0.97 12 1.64 0.97 156 Machiavellianism 1.59 0.92 12 1.61 0.94 157

25 Appendix D Experts

Table D1. Average profile of experts, by election Average Average Percentage Average Percentage Country Election date expert survey domestic expert female familiarity a simplicity b experts left-right c experts Albania 25-Jun-17 7.20 6.60 0.71 4.60 0.60 Algeria 4-May-17 6.17 4.60 0.20 3.40 0.33 Argentina 22-Oct-17 8.42 7.75 0.93 5.08 0.50 Armenia 2-Apr-17 8.50 6.60 1.00 5.40 0.33 Australia 2-Jul-16 8.29 6.70 0.96 3.25 0.40 Austria 4-Dec-16 8.06 5.88 0.89 3.32 0.41 Austria 15-Oct-17 8.43 5.95 0.85 3.67 0.43 Bulgaria 6-Nov-16 8.24 7.10 0.87 5.05 0.57 Bulgaria 26-Mar-17 7.60 6.50 0.87 5.30 0.40 Chile 19-Nov-17 8.89 7.78 0.73 4.56 0.11 Costa Rica 4-Feb-18 8.61 7.58 0.90 4.06 0.21 Croatia 11-Sep-16 8.60 7.00 0.83 4.27 0.33 Cyprus 28-Jan-18 7.89 8.00 0.56 5.00 0.56 Czech Republic 20-Oct-17 7.29 5.00 0.91 6.35 0.11 Czech Republic 12-Jan-18 7.61 5.44 1.00 5.89 0.28 Ecuador 19-Feb-17 8.17 7.00 0.82 3.79 0.37 Finland 28-Jan-18 8.06 6.63 0.94 3.65 0.18 France 23-Apr-17 8.37 5.88 0.59 4.31 0.15 France 11-Jun-17 8.55 6.09 0.67 4.36 0.18 Georgia 8-Oct-16 7.44 5.89 0.89 5.56 0.40 Germany 24-Sep-17 7.50 5.42 0.68 4.16 0.18 Ghana 7-Dec-16 8.92 8.25 0.69 5.75 0.08 Iceland 25-Jun-16 8.83 7.67 0.79 4.17 0.33 Iceland 29-Oct-16 8.09 6.27 0.71 3.91 0.45 Iceland 28-Oct-17 8.43 5.71 1.00 4.29 0.57 Iran 19-May-17 8.29 5.71 0.13 3.57 0.00 Italy 4-Mar-18 8.22 6.32 0.67 3.81 0.33 Japan 10-Jul-16 7.60 6.20 0.52 4.70 0.20 Japan 22-Oct-17 6.41 5.94 0.80 4.47 0.29 Kenya 8-Aug-17 7.33 7.33 0.33 3.33 0.67 Kosovo 11-Jun-17 7.80 6.93 1.00 4.53 0.13 Lithuania 9-Oct-16 7.67 5.94 1.00 6.56 0.38 Macedonia 11-Dec-16 7.76 6.69 0.68 3.88 0.65 Malta 3-Jun-17 8.91 7.82 1.00 3.82 0.27 Moldova 30-Oct-16 9.00 6.67 0.83 6.78 0.33 Mongolia 29-Jun-16 7.40 6.20 0.25 4.00 0.00 Montenegro 16-Oct-16 8.67 6.50 0.75 3.33 0.33 Morocco 7-Oct-16 6.83 6.83 0.40 4.67 0.50 New Zealand 23-Sep-17 8.67 7.08 0.94 2.64 0.42

26 Nicaragua 6-Nov-16 6.50 6.00 0.20 3.75 0.00 Northern Ireland 2-Mar-17 8.19 7.00 0.62 3.94 0.31 Norway 11-Sep-17 7.44 7.13 1.00 3.75 0.25 Romania 11-Dec-16 8.38 6.95 0.87 5.65 0.43 Russia 18-Sep-16 6.83 6.57 0.54 5.08 0.33 Russia 18-Mar-18 8.27 8.00 0.64 6.09 0.27 Rwanda 4-Aug-17 8.00 5.50 0.40 4.00 0.50 Serbia 2-Apr-17 8.00 6.78 0.50 3.56 0.44 Spain 26-Jun-16 8.38 7.00 0.89 4.15 0.31 The Bahamas 10-May-17 7.77 7.31 0.79 4.38 0.69 The Netherlands 15-Mar-17 7.68 4.41 0.93 3.73 0.25 Timor Leste 20-Mar-17 7.00 8.00 0.33 5.67 0.33 Timor Leste 22-Jul-17 7.60 4.60 0.20 5.00 0.20 UK 8-Jun-17 7.65 6.56 0.73 4.09 0.35 USA 8-Nov-16 8.97 7.44 0.81 3.60 0.29 Uzbekistan 4-Dec-16 8.17 6.25 0.67 4.60 0.67 a Average score for variable measuring how familiar experts are with elections in the country surveyed (self- assessment); ranges between 0 ’very low’ and 10 ‘very high’. b Average score for variable measuring how easy or difficult it was for experts to answer questions in the survey (self-assessment); ranges between 0 ‘very difficult’ and 10 ‘very easy’. c Average ideology of experts, based on self-assessed position of left-right scale (0-10).

Table D2. Profile of experts (election average) and candidate traits (Big Five)

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Extraversion Agreeableness Conscientiousness Emotional stability Openness

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value value value

Familiarity a 0.07 (0.15) 0.627 0.06 (0.14) 0.686 0.29 (0.12) 0.017 0.22 (0.15) 0.145 0.16 (0.14) 0.228 Simplicity b 0.04 (0.12) 0.712 0.03 (0.12) 0.776 -0.16 (0.10) 0.109 -0.03 (0.12) 0.813 -0.00 (0.11) 0.966 Perc. domestic -0.32 (0.47) 0.499 0.42 (0.46) 0.356 0.90 (0.38) 0.018 0.67 (0.49) 0.176 -0.45 (0.44) 0.299 Left-right c 0.14 (0.10) 0.163 -0.04 (0.10) 0.649 -0.17 (0.08) 0.041 -0.16 (0.10) 0.121 0.15 (0.09) 0.108 Perc. female 0.65 (0.51) 0.204 0.45 (0.50) 0.366 -0.06 (0.42) 0.888 -0.21 (0.54) 0.699 0.69 (0.48) 0.149

PR 0.10 (0.17) 0.562 -0.10 (0.16) 0.530 -0.04 (0.14) 0.757 -0.09 (0.17) 0.615 0.01 (0.16) 0.959 Effect N cand -0.00 (0.06) 0.939 0.03 (0.06) 0.556 0.05 (0.05) 0.254 0.04 (0.06) 0.459 -0.03 (0.05) 0.594 Competitiveness 0.14 (0.09) 0.103 0.03 (0.09) 0.744 -0.13 (0.07) 0.074 -0.10 (0.09) 0.259 0.08 (0.08) 0.296 Presidential -0.14 (0.18) 0.435 0.09 (0.18) 0.601 0.12 (0.15) 0.443 -0.02 (0.19) 0.907 -0.14 (0.17) 0.410 OECD 0.23 (0.19) 0.215 -0.06 (0.18) 0.741 -0.09 (0.15) 0.577 0.07 (0.20) 0.723 0.17 (0.18) 0.329

Constant 0.56 (1.21) 0.641 0.65 (1.19) 0.586 1.46 (0.99) 0.142 1.10 (1.28) 0.388 0.18 (1.14) 0.877

N(candidates) 122 122 122 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 55 55 55 R2 0.07 0.04 0.13 0.07 0.05

Note: All models are random-effect hierarchical linear regressions (HLM) where candidates are nested within elections. All dependent variables vary between 0 “very low” and 4 “very high”. a Average score for variable measuring how familiar experts are with elections in the country surveyed (self- assessment); ranges between 0 ’very low’ and 10 ‘very high’. b Average score for variable measuring how easy or difficult it was for experts to answer questions in the survey (self-assessment); ranges between 0 ‘very difficult’ and 10 ‘very easy’. c Average ideology of experts, based on self-assessed position of left-right scale (0-10). Coefficients in bold are statistically significant (normal bold significant at p < .05 or lower; in italics significant at .05 < p < .1); see p-value.

Table D3. Profile of experts (election average) and candidate traits (Big Five)

M1 M2 M3 Narcissism Psychopathy Machiavellianism

Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- Coef (Se) p- value value value

Familiarity a 0.06 (0.16) 0.700 -0.07 (0.16) 0.673 0.01 (0.15) 0.947 Simplicity b -0.01 (0.13) 0.961 -0.05 (0.13) 0.731 -0.03 (0.12) 0.787 Perc. domestic 0.15 (0.52) 0.765 -0.53 (0.52) 0.312 0.32 (0.48) 0.499 Left-right c 0.03 (0.11) 0.816 0.04 (0.11) 0.712 0.01 (0.10) 0.937 Perc. female -0.20 (0.55) 0.715 -0.59 (0.58) 0.307 -0.17 (0.52) 0.749

PR -0.06 (0.19) 0.729 0.02 (0.19) 0.928 -0.15 (0.17) 0.384 Effect N cand -0.00 (0.06) 0.989 -0.00 (0.06) 0.941 0.05 (0.06) 0.347 Competitiveness -0.01 (0.10) 0.888 0.06 (0.10) 0.570 0.03 (0.09) 0.714 Presidential 0.06 (0.20) 0.774 -0.10 (0.21) 0.623 0.09 (0.19) 0.611 OECD -0.13 (0.21) 0.543 0.00 (0.21) 0.983 -0.29 (0.19) 0.128

Constant 2.13 (1.33) 0.111 3.39 (1.36) 0.013 1.85 (1.24) 0.136

N(candidates) 122 122 122 N(elections) 55 55 55 R2 0.02 0.03 0.04