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Public Finance Bulletin Republic of Serbia Ministry of Finance PUBLIC FINANCE BULLETIN 4/2021 Number 200 Belgrade, 2021 Founder and publisher Ministry of Finance, Republic of Serbia Belgrade, 20 Kneza Milosa St. www.mfin.gov.rs ISSN 1452-0028 For the publisher Milica Jovanović Assistant Minister of Finance [email protected] Editorial Ljubica Matić, Vladimir Malbašić, Ognjen Jančić, Marko Lisica, Milica Jovanović, Aleksandar Stojković, Danilo Vukojičić, Jovana Đerić, Danijela Domanović, Valentina Osmajlić, Ivan Krstić, Rade Ćirić, Ana Tripović Editorial secretary Ljubica Matić [email protected] Design and print Ministry of Finance, Republic of Serbia Circulation 500 copies The Bulletin is issued monthly CONTENTS CURRENT MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS 4 I MACROECONOMIC TRENDS 11 II FISCAL TRENDS 38 Republic of Serbia Budget 47 Vojvodina Budget 63 Budget of Municipalities and Cities 67 Financial Plans of Social Security Organizations (SSO) 71 III PUBLIC DEBT 78 IV Methodological explanations 90 CURRENT MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS 1. Current macroeconomic developments 1.1. Economic activity Contribution to the quarterly growth of the GDP in pp (expenditure side) Gross domestic products. In the first quarter of 2021, gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a real year-on- 15 year increase of 1.7%. Observed from the production side, the most significant positive impact provide sections 10 of construction and wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles, transportation and storage and 5 accommodation and food services with a positive contribution of 0.8 pp each and the industry section with 0 a contribution of 0.7 pp. The most significant negative contribution of 0.4 pp came from section of professional, -5 scientific and technical activities and administrative and support service activities, followed by the section of arts, -10 entertainment and recreation, other service activities and activities of households as employers with a negative 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 contribution of 0.3 pp. Stocks Net export Observed by expenditure aggregates, net exports is the Investment Government consumption dominant driver of growth in the first quarter with a Private consumption Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution of 4.8 pp, followed by investment with a positive contribution of 2.0 pp. Changes in inventories Industrial production. According to the Statistical Office and household final consumption expenditure had the of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) data, industrial most significant negative impact on economic activity of production in April 2021 has increased annually by 3.7 pp and 1.2 pp, respectively. 33.9%, while compared to the average industrial production in 2020 increased by 5.8%. The largest Excluding the influence of the season, the value of GDP influence on industrial production growth in April 2021 in the first quarter of 2021 is higher by 1.9% compared to compared to April 2020 had the divisions of: manufacture the previous quarter. of rubber and plastic products, manufacture of coke and Contribution to the quarterly growth of the GDP in pp refined petroleum products, electricity, gas, steam and air (production side) conditioning supply, manufacture of fabricated metal 8 products, expect machinery and equipment, as well as manufacture of electrical equipment. 6 4 Observed by NACE Rev. 2, in April 2021, annual increase was recorded in all three sections: manufacturing 2 (42.0%), electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 0 supply (17.6%) and mining and quarrying (3.0%). The -2 largest increase in production was recorded in -4 manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers -6 (315.2%), while manufacture of tobacco products has decreased the most (-8.7%). -8 The industrial production volume in April 2021, in 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 comparison to the same month in 2020, recorded an Net taxes Services increase within 25 divisions, which accounts for 88% of Construction Industry the total industrial production, while a decrease in 4 Agriculture Gross domestict product (GDP) divisions, which accounts for 12% of the total industrial production. In April 2021, compared to April 2020, an increase in the production was recorded in all Main industrial groupings (MIGs): durable consumer goods (161.6%), capital goods 4 Public Finance Bulletin, April 2021 Ministry of Finance (103.3%), intermediate goods, except energy (34.4%), annual decrease in stocks in April was recorded in the non-durable consumer goods (22.9%) and energy stocks of mining of metal ores (-55.6%), while the (22.5%). largest growth was in the stocks of manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (97.3%). In first four months it was recorded an increase of industrial production of 10.1% y-o-y. Observed by Retail trade turnover. Annual growth of the retail trade MIGs, the main contribution to the increase of industrial turnover in April 2021 increased by 47.0% in nominal production came from the production of intermediate and increased by 42.0% in real terms, compared to April goods except energy (growth of 12.7%) primarily due to 2020. Also, in April, turnover in real terms, increased by the growth of production of rubber and plastic products 9.7% compared to the average monthly retail trade and other non-metallic mineral products. The most turnover in 2020, while compared to the previous month, significant positive impact on the growth of energy of increased by 7.7%. 7.3% came from the production of electricity, gas, steam Annual growth of the category food, beverages and and air conditioning supply. Production of capital goods tobacco was 26.3% in nominal terms, while in real terms increased by 22.3% with a significant positive impact of increased by 23.4%. Category non-food products, the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi- except automotive fuel increased in nominal and real trailers. The production of non-durable consumer goods terms by 64.7% and 62.5%, respectively. Motor fuel’s increased by 4.2%, primarily as the result of the growth turnover increased by 85.7% in nominal terms and of food products, while the most significant positive increased by 66.8% in real terms. impact on the growth of durable consumer goods of 39.3% came from the production of electrical Increase in the retail trade turnover in nominal terms was equipment. observed in all the regions: Srbija – Sever by 45.4%, Region Vojvodine by 45.5% and Srbija – Jug by 49.5%, The seasonal adjustment of the industrial production y-o-y. Observed in real terms, growth in the turnover index for April 2021, compared to March 2021, was registered in all the regions, and the biggest increase indicates an increase of 1.4% of the overall industrial of 43.8% y-o-y was recorded in the Srbija – Jug region. production and an increase of 1.8% of manufacturing. In the period January–April 2021, compared with the Indices of industrial output (2020=100) same period of 2020, the retail trade turnover increased 120 by 14.0% in nominal and by 13.0% in real terms. Tourism. Annual growth in the number of tourists’ visits 110 was registered in April 2021 (2,078.2%). At the same 100 time, the number of overnight stays increased by 857.0% compared to the same month of the previous year. The 90 number of domestic tourists’ visits increased by 80 1,808.3%, while the number of their overnight stays increased by 861.0%, compared to the same month in 70 2020. At the same time, the number of foreign tourists’ visits increased by 3,422.6%, while their overnight stays 60 increased by 846.8%. Share of the foreign tourists’ visits jul jul jan jan jan oct oct jun jun feb feb apr apr sep sep dec dec aug aug nov nov mar mar may may and their overnight stays was 27.0% and 28.3% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202021 respectively. Original data Seasonally adjusted data Trend Most of the tourists in April 2021 originated from Indices of manufacturing industry (2020=100) Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Germany (47.9% of the total number of 120 foreign tourists’ visits and 36.6% of their total overnight 110 stays). In April, spas had the largest number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays (28.2% of the total number 100 of arrivals and 33.3% of the total number of overnight stays). A higher number of domestic tourists compared 90 to foreign tourists was recorded in all places, except in 80 the city of Belgrade, where most of the tourists were foreigners (68.2% of the total number of visits). 70 In the period January–April 2021, the number of tourists 60 and their overnight stays totalled 541,570 and jul jul jan jan jan oct oct jun jun feb feb apr apr sep sep dec dec aug aug nov nov mar mar may may 1,740,796, respectively. The number of tourists’ visits 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202021 decreased by 3.7%, while the number of their overnight Original data Seasonally adjusted data Trend stays decreased by 3.6%, compared to the same period According to the SORS data, in April 2021 stocks of 2020. Also, it was registered decrease in the number increased by 6.6% compared to April 2020. The largest of foreign tourists’ visits by 45.8% and their overnight 5 Public Finance Bulletin, April 2021 Ministry of Finance stays decreased by 35.3%. At the same time, the number total imports came from import of electrical machinery of domestic tourists’ visits increased by 27.0%, while and apparatus, road vehicles, medicinal and their overnight stays increased by 14.3%. pharmaceutical products, general industrial machinery and equipment and petroleum and petroleum products.
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