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Money in the Great Recession Money in the Great Recession M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 1 19/05/2017 12:20 BUCKINGHAM STUDIES IN MONEY, BANKING AND CENTRAL BANKING Series Editor: Tim Congdon CBE, Chairman, Institute of International Monetary Research and Professor, University of Buckingham, United Kingdom The Institute of International Monetary Research promotes research into how developments in banking and finance affect the wider economy. Particular attention is paid to the effect of changes in the quantity of money, on inflation and deflation, and on boom and bust. The Institute’s wider aims are to enhance economic knowledge and understanding, and to seek price stability, steady economic growth and high employment. The Institute is located at the University of Buckingham and helps with the university’s educational role. Buckingham Studies in Money, Banking and Central Banking presents some of the Institute’s most important work. Contributions from scholars at other universities and research bodies, and practitioners in finance and banking, are also welcome. For more on the Institute, see the website at www.mv-pt.org. M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 2 19/05/2017 12:20 Money in the Great Recession Did a Crash in Money Growth Cause the Global Slump? Edited by Tim Congdon CBE Chairman, Institute of International Monetary Research and Professor, University of Buckingham, United Kingdom BUCKINGHAM STUDIES IN MONEY, BANKING AND CENTRAL BANKING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 3 19/05/2017 12:20 © Tim Congdon 2017 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Published by Edward Elgar Publishing Limited The Lypiatts 15 Lansdown Road Cheltenham Glos GL50 2JA UK Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. William Pratt House 9 Dewey Court Northampton Massachusetts 01060 USA A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Control Number: 2016962567 This book is available electronically in the Economics subject collection DOI 10.4337/9781784717834 ISBN 978 1 78471 782 7 (cased) ISBN 978 1 78471 783 4 (eBook) Typeset by Servis Filmsetting Ltd, Stockport, Cheshire 06 M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 4 19/05/2017 12:20 Contents List of contributors vii Foreword by The Right Honourable Lord Lamont of Lerwick (Chancellor of the Exchequer, 1990–93) ix Introduction: the quantity theory of money – why another restatement is needed, and why it matters to the debates on the Great Recession 1 Tim Congdon PART I WHAT WERE THE CAUSES OF THE GREAT RECESSION? Introduction to Part I 23 Tim Congdon 1 What were the causes of the Great Recession? The mainstream approach vs. the monetary interpretation 27 Tim Congdon 2 The debate over “quantitative easing” in the UK’s Great Recession and afterwards 57 Tim Congdon 3 UK broad money growth and nominal spending during the Great Recession: an analysis of the money creation process and the role of money demand 78 Ryland Thomas 4 Have central banks forgotten about money? The case of the European Central Bank, 1999–2014 101 Juan E. Castañeda and Tim Congdon v M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 5 19/05/2017 12:20 vi Money in the Great Recession PART II THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN THE GREAT RECESSION: CULPRIT OR VICTIM? Introduction to Part II 133 Tim Congdon 5 The impact of the New Regulatory Wisdom on banking, credit and money: good or bad? 137 Adam Ridley 6 Why has monetary policy not worked as expected? Some interactions between financial regulation, credit and money 155 Charles Goodhart 7 The Basel rules and the banking system: an American perspective 164 Steve Hanke PART III HOW SHOULD THE GREAT RECESSION BE VIEWED IN MONETARY THOUGHT AND HISTORY? Introduction to Part III 181 Tim Congdon 8 Monetary policy, asset prices and financial institutions 185 Philip Booth 9 How would Keynes have analysed the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009? 208 Robert Skidelsky 10 Why Friedman and Schwartz’s interpretation of the Great Depression still matters: reassessing the thesis of their 1963 Monetary History 233 David Laidler Index 259 M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 6 19/05/2017 12:20 Contributors Philip Booth is Professor of Finance, Public Policy and Ethics at St Mary’s University, Twickenham, United Kingdom. From 2002 to 2016 he was Academic and Research Director (previously, Editorial and Programme Director) at the Institute of Economic Affairs. Previously he was Professor of Insurance and Risk Management at Cass Business School, City University, and also worked for the Bank of England as an adviser on financial stability. He is both an economist and a qualified actuary. Juan E. Castañeda is the Director of the Institute of International Monetary Research at the University of Buckingham, United Kingdom. He was awarded his PhD by the University Autónoma of Madrid, Spain in 2003 and has been a lecturer in Economics at the University of Buckingham since 2012. Dr Castañeda has worked with and prepared reports for the European Parliament’s Committee of Economic and Monetary Affairs. Tim Congdon is the Chairman of the Institute of International Monetary Research, which he founded in 2014. He was a member of the Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters (the so-called “wise men”) between 1992 and 1997, which advised the Chancellor of the Exchequer on economic policy. Although most of his career has been spent as an economist in the City of London, he has been a visiting professor at the Cardiff Business School and the City University Business School (now the Cass Business School), and he is currently a Professor of Economics at the University of Buckingham. Professor Congdon is often regarded as the UK’s leading representative of “monetarist” economic thinking. Charles Goodhart is one of the world’s leading authorities on the theory and practice of central banking. He served as a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from June 1997 to May 2000. He was Norman Sosnow Professor of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics, United Kingdom from 1985 to 2002, and is now Emeritus Professor. Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Well known for his work vii M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 7 19/05/2017 12:20 viii Money in the Great Recession as a currency reformer in emerging economies and one of the world’s authorities on currency boards and dollarization, he is the Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC. He was a senior economist with President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1981 to 1982, and has served as an adviser to heads of state in countries throughout Asia, South America, Europe and the Middle East. David Laidler is one of the world’s leading figures in the monetarist tradi- tion of analysing the role of money in determining inflation and short-run economic fluctuations. The theme of David Laidler’s research is summed up by the title of his 1988 presidential address to the Canadian Economic Association, “Taking money seriously”. He was a research assistant for Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz’s Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. He joined the economics faculty at the University of Western Ontario, Canada in 1975 and was Bank of Montreal Professor there from 2000 to 2005. He is now Professor Emeritus. Adam Ridley is a British economist, civil servant and banker. He was a Special Adviser to the Chancellors of the Exchequer between 1979 and 1984, and later a Director of Hambros Bank and Morgan Stanley, Europe. In the 1990s he played a critical role in devising a settlement for the litigation then afflicting the Lloyd’s of London insurance market. The settlement was followed by Lloyd’s recovery and renewal. He was Director- General of the London Investment Banking Association from 2000 to 2005. Robert Skidelsky is Emeritus Professor of Political Economy at Warwick University, United Kingdom. His three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes (1983, 1992, 2000) won five prizes and his book on the financial crisis – Keynes: The Return of the Master – was published in September 2010. He was made a member of the House of Lords in 1991 (he sits on the cross-benches) and elected a fellow of the British Academy in 1994. How Much is Enough? The Love of Money and the Case for the Good Life, co-written with his son Edward, was published in July 2012. His most recent publications were as author of Britain in the 20th Century: A Success? (2014) and as editor of The Essential Keynes (2015). Ryland Thomas is a Senior Economist at the Bank of England, where he has worked since 1994. He is attached to the Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division, where his work has focused on the role of money and credit in the economy. Currently he looks after the Bank of England’s historical macroeconomic database and data on the Bank of England’s historical balance sheet. M4226-CONGDON_9781784717827_t.indd 8 19/05/2017 12:20 Foreword Have we learned all the lessons of the recent recession, which hit so many countries at different times after the banking crisis began in 2007? And were all the policy reactions to it correct? Even in 2017 it would be a bold man who answered those questions with a confident “yes”. This volume of essays focuses largely on the role of monetary policy. That is hardly surprising since it has been brought together by Tim Congdon, one of the leading monetary economists in the UK.
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