DOCSLIB.ORG

International Monetary Review October 2017, Vol

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
International Monetary Review October 2017, Vol May 2014 Volume 1, Number 1 International Monetary Review October 2017, Vol. 4, No. 4 Liu Jun Sino-US Trade and Investment Relationship Needs Fairness and Reciprocity Ding Jianping Time for Economies to Build Bulwarks Herbert Poenisch Creeping Gold Standard Xia Le Renminbi's Global Push is Forging Ahead Steve H. Hanke Bank Regulations: An Existential Threat? David Marsh The First Brexit Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng Barbarians at the Monetary Gate Elliot Hentov Measures for Global Renminbi Growth Zhejiang University Academy of Internet Finance East or West, Home is Best?—Are banks becoming more global or local? 1 International Monetary AdvisoryIMI Board: Review (in alphabetical order of surname) Edmond Alphandery Yaseen Anwar Chen Yulu Chen Yunxian Lord Neil Davidson Steve H. Hanke Li Ruogu Li Yang Ma Delun Robert A. Mundell Joseph C.K. Yam Pan Gongsheng Su Ning Wang Zhaoxing Nout Wellink Wu Qing Xia Bin Xuan Changneng Introduction to the International Monetary Institute ( IMI ) Editorial Board: (in alphabetical order of surname) Ben Shenglin Cao Tong Established on December 20, 2009, IMI is a non- Michael Chang Chen Weidong Ding Jianping Ding Zhijie profit academic institution affiliated to China Robert Elsen E Zhihuan Financial Policy Research Center and the School of Tomoyuki Fukumoto Fariborz Ghadar Thorsten Giehler Yuksel Gormez Finance of Renmin University. Guo Qingwang Ji Zhihong Jaya Josie Rainer Klump Kees Koedijk Wolfgang Koenig Following the "general theory of macro-finance", Iikka Korhonen Il Houng Lee IMI aims to become a world-class think tank, Liu Jun Lu Lei David Marsh Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva focusing on the studies of international finance, in Jukka Pihlman Herbert Poenisch particular the international monetary system and Alain Raes Alfred Schipke Anoop Singh Sun Lujun RMB internationalization. Despite its relatively short Wanda Sung-Hwa Tseng Tu Yonghong history so far, IMI has established itself as a leading Wei Benhua Xiang Songzuo research institution and important forum, where Michael Zhang Zhang Jie Zhang Xiaopu Zhang Zhixiang industry leaders, policy makers and academic experts Zhao Xijun from home and abroad share their insights and expertise. Name of Journal: International Monetary Review Frequency of Publication: Quarterly Sponsor: International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China Publisher: Editorial Office of International Monetary Review Editor-in-Chief: Ben Shenglin Associate Editors: Song Ke, Qu Qiang, Xia Le Managing Editor: Herbert Poenisch Associate Managing Editor: Dong Xijun Assistant Editors: Chen Wenye, Cheng Liuyi, Li Shiliang, Li Xuefei, Li Xueyi, Lu Kefan, Xu Peilan, Zhao Wenjing, Zheng Ze Editorial Office: International Monetary Institute, Renmin University of China Room 605, No. 59 Zhongguancun Avenue, Beijing 100872, China We only share the most valuable Tel: 86-10-62516755 financial insights WeChat Email: [email protected] Website: www.imi.org.cn May 2014 Volume 1, Number 1 CONTENTS China Sino-US Trade and Investment Relationship Needs Fairness and Reciprocity Liu Jun/01 Time for Economies to Build Bulwarks Ding Jianping and Yang Jie/03 Challenges Await China's Economy Hong Hao/05 RMB Internationalization Creeping Gold Standard Herbert Poenisch/07 Measures for Global Renminbi Growth Elliot Hentov/10 Renminbi's Global Push is Forging Ahead Xia Le/12 Financial Regulation Bank Regulations: An Existential Threat? Steve H. Hanke/14 Financial Risk Can’t Be Ignored Amid Restructuring Xiong Yuan/17 Code of Conduct Needed to Reduce Moral Hazard Li Honghan/19 International The First Brexit David Marsh/21 Financing Future Energy Herbert Poenisch/23 Emerging Markets Surpass Expectations Gary Kleiman/25 Sterling Lessons for Asia Zeti Aziz/27 Fintech Barbarians at the Monetary Gate Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng/29 Digital Future for Sterling Victoria Cleland/31 Fintech Fills Funding Shortfall Greg Medcraft/33 Sustainable Development Are the Sustainable Development Goals Achievable? Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng/35 Public Infrastructure Investment: A BRICS Perspective for Inclusive Sustainable Development Jaya Josie/37 Research Report East or West, Home is Best?——Are banks becoming more global or local? Zhejiang University Academy of Internet Finance/47 Working Paper Shadow Banking in China: Then and Now Xi Chao and Xia Le/54 Institutional Investors and the QE Portfolio Balance Channel Michael Joyce, Liu Zhuoshi and Ian Tonks/66 The Impact of Internet Sales Tax in a Search Model of Money: Some Analytical Results Dai Tiantian, Jiang Shenyi, Liu Xiangbo and Wang Wen/84 IMI News 3 International Monetary Review IMI顾问委员会 ：（以姓氏拼音为序） Edmond Alphandery、Yaseen Anwar、陈雨露、陈云贤、Lord Neil Davidson、Steve H. Hanke、李若谷、李扬、马德伦、Robert A. Mundell、任志刚、潘功胜、苏宁、 王兆星、Nout Wellink、吴清、夏斌、宣昌能 编委会：（以姓氏拼音为序） 贲圣林、曹彤、陈卫东、丁剑平、丁志杰、Robert Elsen、鄂志寰、福本智之、 Fariborz Ghadar、Thorsten Giehler、Yuksel Gormez、郭庆旺、纪志宏、Jaya Josie、Rainer Klump、Kees Koedijk、Wolfgang Koenig、Iikka Korhonen、李一 衡、刘珺、陆磊、David Marsh、Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva、Jukka Pihlman、Alain Raes、Alfred Schipke、Anoop Singh、孙鲁军、曾颂华、涂永红、魏本华、向松祚、 张杰、张晋源、张晓朴、张岳鹏、张之骧、赵锡军 刊 名：International Monetary Review 刊 期：季刊 主办单位：中国人民大学国际货币研究所 出版单位：《International Monetary Review》编辑部 主 编：贲圣林 联席主编：Herbert Poenisch 副 主 编：宋科、曲强、夏乐 执行副主编：董熙君 编辑部成员：陈文烨、程六一、李时良、李雪菲、李雪怡、陆可凡、徐佩岚、赵文静、 郑泽 编辑部地址：北京市海淀区中关村大街 59 号文化大厦 605 室 邮 编：100872 电 话：86-10-62516755 邮 箱：[email protected] 网 址：www.imi.org.cn 只分享最有价值的财经视点 We only share the most valuable financial insights 【IMI 财经观察】 更多精彩内容请登录国际货币网（英文版）http://www.imi.org.cn/en/ 4 International Monetary Review October 2017, Vol. 4, No. 4 China Sino-US Trade and Investment Relationship Needs Fairness and Reciprocity * By LIU JUN In the increasingly complicated matrix of global trade and investment relationships, the one between China and the US is the most vital, due to its economic dominance and interactive complexity. To date, China has accumulated huge amounts of foreign exchange reserves along its path of opening up to the outside world since the 1980s and market economy transition. As a result, the country now needs more channels for its capital to get abroad, and more tools to equilibrate its balance of payments. The most reasonable strategy is to achieve a capital account deficit over the current account surplus. That means China will have to invest more overseas, and it‘s likely the US will receive increasing amounts of that due to its commensurate size and scale. Those are the crucial two sides of the current global trade coin. If we close the normal and well-regulated channels, underground money flow will definitely thrive, which will then create huge amounts of what could aptly be described as ―dark matter‖ and leave us in a place where international policy cooperation and regulatory framework are gravely distorted. If that turned out to be the case, how could China possibly achieve its trade and balance of payments without being accused by the US of manipulating its currency somehow. I work at China Investment Corp (CIC), China‘s sole sovereign wealth fund. We have witnessed the dramatic increase in the number of Chinese firms making foreign direct investments (FDIs) overseas, particularly in the US. It is estimated that 70 to 80 Chinese deals were scrutinised by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States(CFIUS) last year, in sharp contrast to the single-digit number a decade ago. Within the investment circle, there is an oft-mentioned figure,10 per cent, which is generally considered to be the rough proportion of Chinese FDIs that have encountered difficulties in their CFIUS applications for security reasons. For Chinese investors, in addition to public market transactions, alternative and direct investments are well on course for a place in their foreign assets portfolios. CIC has a more urgent need than its peers due to its longer liability duration and asset diversification demand. Hence, achieving China‘s balance of payments via capital account outflow is a joint effort between China and its foreign counterparts, of which the US is the most crucial and strategic, taking the CFIUS issue into consideration. Trade and investment are interlinked, and fair This article first appeared in South China Morning Post on July 28, 2017. * Liu Jun, Member of IMI Academic Committee, Executive Vice President and Member of the China Investment Corp‘s Executive Committee. 1 exchange between countries is achieved through reciprocity. However, reciprocity is a loosely defined concept, and is absolutely not a mirror image. From different angles, the views might be quite different, if not completely opposite. Whenever there is a debate about the level playing field between China and the US, service sector openness is always targeted to justify one conclusion: China is much less open to the US, especially in financial sectors such as banking, insurance, and electronic payments. However, the fact is that the opposite may also hold true. For the US, the financial sector is purely a commercial industry, mainly serving as the intermediary market platform to facilitate economic activities and improve economic efficiency. All related business activities are mostly market-based. From the perspective of corporate finance, only 10 to 15 per cent of the required capital comes from commercial bank loans; the rest is raised through direct vehicles on the well-established and advanced capital markets. In contrast, China‘s social financing structure is highly skewed to indirect financing, with commercial bank loans accounting for over 70 per cent of overall corporate funding. Equity and bond issuances are way behind the curve. Therefore, there is a highly significant overlap between the financial sector and China‘s real industry, which means we should not speak of financial sector openness as a standalone issue. A holistic view is highly necessary for such discussions, since the financial sector exerts substantial impact upon the real industry, and in fact has a direct bearing on China‘s economic security and national security.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Clara Wing-Chung Ho FUSHI
    Clara Wing-chung Ho FUSHI: THE SECOND SEX AND THE THIRD SEX IN TRADITIONAL CHINA* A Double Meaning of Fushi If we borrow the Western concept to describe women as the second sex in Chinese history,1 then eunuchs could certainly be understood as the third sex.2 The third sex was an artificial one. It was the first sex, male, aiming to ensure the chastity of the second sex, who created a third sex. In imperial families, castration of male attendants made it possible to prevent palace * The author gratefully acknowledges Professor Kwai-cheung Lo, who read the first draft of this article and offered many valuable comments. An earlier version of this article was presented at the workshop “The Future of Chinese Gender Studies in Europe, Asia and the United States” held in Luxembourg, June 24-26, 2005. The author also acknowledges all the constructive comments and suggestions given by the workshop participants, Professors Harriet Zurndorfer and Angela Ki Che Leung in particular. The author is also grateful to Professor Paolo Santan- gelo and Dr. Donatella Guida for their editorial assistance. The shortcomings of the final ver- sion are, of course, the author’s own. 1 Simone de Beauvior’s (1908-1986) Le Deuxième Sexe (The Second Sex) was first published in French in 1949. Employing biological, psychological and historical analysis, it explains how the men-women relation was compared to the master-slave relation. The book was soon trans- lated into many languages and became a major and well-known reference on gender studies in the second half of the 20th century.
    [Show full text]
  • The Future of Europe the Eurozone and the Next Recession Content
    April 2019 Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research The future of Europe The Eurozone and the next recession Content 03 Editorial Publication details This report has been prepared by UBS AG and UBS Switzerland AG. Chapter 1: Business cycle Please see important disclaimer and 05 Cyclical position disclosures at the end of the document. 08 Imbalances This report was published on April 9 2019 10 Emerging markets Authors Ricardo Garcia (Editor in chief) Chapter 2: Policy space Jens Anderson Michael Bolliger 14 Institutional framework Kiran Ganesh Matteo Ramenghi 16 Fiscal space Roberto Scholtes Fabio Trussardi 19 Monetary space Dean Turner Thomas Veraguth Thomas Wacker Chapter 3: Impact Contributors Paul Donovan 23 Bond markets Elisabetta Ferrara Tom Flury 26 Banks Bert Jansen Claudia Panseri 29 Euro Achim Peijan Louis Pfau Giovanni Staunovo Themis Themistocleous Appendix Desktop Publishing 32 The evolution of the EU: A timeline Margrit Oppliger 33 Europe in numbers Cover photo 34 2020–2025 stress-test scenario assumptions Gettyimages Printer Neidhart + Schön, Zurich Languages English, German and Italian Contact [email protected] Order or subscribe UBS clients can subscribe to the print version of The future of Europe via their client advisor or the Printed & Branded Products Mailbox: [email protected] Electronic subscription is also available via the Investment Views on the UBS e-banking platform. 2 April 2019 – The future of Europe Editorial “Whatever it takes.” These words of Mario Draghi’s marked the inflection point in the last recession and paved the way to the present economic recovery. But as the euro celebrates its 20th birthday, the world and investors are beset again by recessionary fears, with risks mounting and likely to continue doing so in the coming years.
    [Show full text]
  • Anatomy of a Crisis
    Page 7 Chapter 2 Munich: Anatomy of A Crisis eptember 28, 1938, “Black Wednesday,” dawned on a frightened Europe. Since the spring Adolf Hitler had spoken often about the Sudetenland, the western part of Czechoslovakia. Many of the 3 Smillion German-speaking people who lived there had complained that they were being badly mistreated by the Czechs and Slovaks. Cooperating closely with Sudeten Nazis, Hitler at first simply demanded that the Czechs give the German-speakers within their borders self-government. Then, he upped the ante. If the Czechs did not hand the Sudetenland to him by October 1, 1938, he would order his well-armed and trained soldiers to attack Czechoslovakia, destroy its army, and seize the Sudetenland. The Strategic Location of the Sudetenland Germany’s demand quickly reverberated throughout the European continent. Many countries, tied down by various commitments and alliances, pondered whether—and how—to respond to Hitler’s latest threat. France had signed a treaty to defend the Czechs and Britain had a treaty with France; the USSR had promised to defend Czechoslovakia against a German attack. Britain, in particular, found itself in an awkward position. To back the French and their Czech allies would almost guarantee the outbreak of an unpredictable and potentially ruinous continental war; yet to refrain from confronting Hitler over the Sudetenland would mean victory for the Germans. In an effort to avert the frightening possibilities, a group of European leaders converged at Munich Background to the Crisis The clash between Germany and Czechoslovakia over the Sudetenland had its origins in the Versailles Treaty of 1919.
    [Show full text]
  • Money in the Great Recession BUCKINGHAM STUDIES in MONEY, BANKING and CENTRAL BA.NKING
    Money in the Great Recession BUCKINGHAM STUDIES IN MONEY, BANKING AND CENTRAL BA.NKING Seri Editor: Tim Congdon CBE, Chairman, Ins1itute of [nternalional Jlonewry R.:search and Professo1~ University of Buckingham, Uniled Kingdom The Institute of International Monetary Research promotes research into how Money in the Great dc:\'elopments in banking and finance affect the wider economy. Particular attention is paid to the effect of changes in the quantity of money, on inflation and detlation, and on boom and bust. The Institute's wider aims are to enhance economic kno\\'ledge and understanding, and to seek price stability, steady Recession economic growth and high employment. The Institute is located at the University of Buckingham and helps with the university's educational role. Buckingham Studies in Money, Banking and Central Banking presents some Did a Crash in Money Growth Cause the of the Instilllte·s most important work. Contributions from scholars at other Global Slun1p? universities and research bodies. and practi tioners in finance and banking. are also welcome. for more on the Institute. see the \\·ebsit.: at www.m\·-pr.org, Edited by Tim Congdon CBE Chairman, Institute of Internatio11al 1V oneta1y R esearch and Profess01; University of Buckingham, United Kingdom BUCKINGHAM STUDIES IN MONEY, BANKING AND CENTRAL BANKING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS ~Edward Elgar ~ PUBL I SH I NG Cheltenham, UK• Northampton, MA, USA ';;' Tim Congdon 2017 Contents :-\II rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored 1n a retrieval S~ ' Stem or transmitted in anv form orb\' an\' means electronic mechanical o: photoco_pying, recording.
    [Show full text]
  • 'The Birth of the Euro' from <I>EUROPE</I> (December 2001
    'The birth of the euro' from EUROPE (December 2001-January 2002) Caption: On the eve of the entry into circulation of euro notes and coins on January 1, 2002, the author of the article relates the history of the single currency's birth. Source: EUROPE. Magazine of the European Union. Dir. of publ. Hélin, Willy ; REditor Guttman, Robert J. December 2001/January 2002, No 412. Washington DC: Delegation of the European Commission to the United States. ISSN 0191- 4545. Copyright: (c) EUROPE Magazine, all rights reserved The magazine encourages reproduction of its contents, but any such reproduction without permission is prohibited. URL: http://www.cvce.eu/obj/the_birth_of_the_euro_from_europe_december_2001_january_2002-en-fe85d070-dd8b- 4985-bb6f-d64a39f653ba.html Publication date: 01/10/2012 1 / 5 01/10/2012 The birth of the euro By Lionel Barber On January 1, 2002, more than 300 million European citizens will see the euro turn from a virtual currency into reality. The entry into circulation of euro notes and coins means that European Monetary Union (EMU), a project devised by Europe’s political elite over more than a generation, has finally come down to the street. The psychological and economic consequences of the launch of Europe’s single currency will be far- reaching. It will mark the final break from national currencies, promising a cultural revolution built on stable prices, enduring fiscal discipline, and lower interest rates. The origins of the euro go back to the late 1960s, when the Europeans were searching for a response to the upheaval in the Bretton Woods system, in which the US dollar was the dominant currency.
    [Show full text]
  • Black Wednesday’
    Salmond currency plan threatens a Scottish ‘Black Wednesday’ Alex Salmond has five plans for the currency of an independent Scotland according to his list in the STV debate on 25th August (and then there is the latent plan F). They were presented as a range of equally attractive options. This makes light of the issue. One of the options – using “a currency like the Danish krone” - means entering the ERM (the Exchange Rate Mechanism) that the UK was so disastrously a part of and which the UK wasted a meaningful portion of its foreign exchange reserves (£48 billion in today’s money) trying to stay within just on 16th September 1992. That was Black Wednesday, when the Bank of England base rate went up to 15%. Notably Alex Salmond omitted to mention the Norwegian krone: Scotland, with high public spending, too little oil&gas left in the North Sea, and an all-in national debt of £131 billion equivalent on a GDP of £146 billion, will need its oil&gas tax revenues to either defend its currency or manage its debt, and will not have enough left over for a Sovereign Wealth Fund. Scotland has the attributes of a lax fiscal policy now: a current deficit of taxes versus spending (called a primary fiscal deficit) of 5% of GDP, with extra spending promised by the SNP that could expand an already high debt as a proportion of GDP. The debt is likely to start out at above 70% in cash, plus another 20% in contingent liabilities like PFI, backing for Bank of Scotland and RBS, and Scotland’s share of the Euro bailout of Ireland and Portugal.
    [Show full text]
  • Why the Euro Will Collapse
    Why the Euro will collapse Whither Europe ?’ CIBAM Global Business Symposium 21 June 2013 Michael Kitson University of Cambridge www.michaelkitson.org https://twitter.com/MichaelKitson Europe is not working Source: Eurostat: 2013 Unemployment in Europe (April 2013) Source: Eurostat, 2013 Youth unemployment rates in Europe, Jan 2000 - April 2013 (%) Source: Eurostat, 2013 Source: Eurostat Explaining the crisis • A debt crisis austerity is the solution • A ‘structural’ or ‘competitiveness’ problem reducing the role of the state and more ‘competition’ • A Euro problem the single currency is structurally flawed The Euro problem • Combined countries together with different structures and different business cycles • Lack of policy flexibility • Lack of market flexibility • Why has the Euro problem not emerged before? • Masked by the twin deficits: – fiscal – balance of payments Source: Eurostat database Source: Eurostat database Balance of payments on current account, selected countries (% of GDP) Source: Simon Wren-Lewis: http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/other-eurozone-crisis.html The lack of policy flexibility • Exchange rates • Monetary policy • Fiscal policy • Resource transfers Eurozone: long-term interest rates, 1993-2013 Author: Spitzl, available on a creative commons license, (GNU Free Documentation License) Data Source: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu European Fiscal Compact • A debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% • A general budget deficit less than 3.0% of the GDP • A structural deficit of less than 1.0% of GDP if the debt-to-GDP ratio
    [Show full text]
  • Brexit: the End of the Beginning
    ACCESS A BROADER MARKET PERSPECTIVE BREXIT: THE END OF THE BEGINNING BY PETER MADIGAN LONG DIVISION The defining moments that led up to the current deadlock over Brexit JANUARY 1, 1973 The United Kingdom accedes to the European Economic Community, a free trade and customs union JUNE 5, 1975 In a referendum on continued EEC membership, the UK votes 67.2% in favor of remaining part of the bloc SEPTEMBER 16, 1992 Black Wednesday—GBP is forced to leave the ERM NOVEMBER 1, 1993 The EEC becomes the European Union, evolving from an economic union into a political union JANUARY 1, 1999 Launch of the euro, the EU’s official currency MAY 1, 2004 Ten new Eastern European and Mediterranean nations accede to EU membership OCTOBER 4, 2009 New Greek government elected, revealing scale of Greece’s public sector deficit. European sovereign debt crisis begins JUNE 23, 2016 UK referendum on whether to withdraw from the EU. Nation votes 51.9% in favor of leaving the bloc OCTOBER 17, 2019 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson negotiates amended departure agreement with EU leaders DECEMBER 12, 2019 UK general election. Johnson seeks Conservative majority to push his deal through UK Parliament JANUARY 31, 2020 Current deadline for the UK to leave the EU SOURCE: BNY MELLON COVER ILLUSTRATION: ROB DOBI WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL FATE OF THE UK’S STORIED RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE SEEDS OF THE TORTURED BREXIT SAGA WERE SOWN MORE THAN THREE DECADES AGO. YET, FAR FROM HERALDING A NEW ERA FOR UK-EU RELATIONS, THE REFERENDUM HAS ONLY SERVED TO DEEPEN PREEXISTING DIVISIONS WHILE DESTABILIZING BRITISH POLITICS.
    [Show full text]
  • International Monetary Review October 2015, Vol
    May 2014 Volume 1, Number 1 International Monetary Review October 2015, Vol. 2, No. 4 International Monetary Institute RMB Internationalization Report 2015 Press Release Yaseen Anwar One Belt One Road, Gateway to the Future Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva A New Approach to the Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates among East-Asian Economies Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Xia Le RMB Bilateral Swap Agreements: How China Chooses its Partners? Special Column on Chinese Economy Instability in China by Steve H. Hanke China Turns to "Real Assets" by David Marsh Reflections on China's Growth by Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva 1 ADVISORY BOARD Edmond Alphandery Yaseen Anwar International Monetary Steve H. Hanke Review RobertIMI A. Mundell Li Ruogu 李若谷 Li Yang 李 扬 Pan Gongsheng 潘功胜 Su Ning 苏 宁 Wang Zhaoxing 王兆星 Xia Bin 夏 斌 Joseph C.K. Yam 任志刚 ACADEMIC COMMITTEE Introduction to the International Chairman Monetary Institute ( IMI ) Chen Yulu 陈雨露 (In alphabetical order of last name) Ben Shenglin 贲圣林 Cao Tong 曹 彤 Established on December 20, 2009, IMI is a non- Chen Weidong 陈卫东 Ding Zhijie 丁志杰 profit academic institution affiliated to China Robert Elsen Financial Policy Research Center and the School of Tomoyuki Fukumoto Guo Qingwang 郭庆旺 Finance of Renmin University. Hu Xuehao 胡学好 Il Houng Lee 李一衡 Ji Zhihong 纪志宏 Following the "general theory of macro-finance", Jiao Jinpu 焦瑾璞 IMI aims to become a world-class think tank, Rainer Klump Liu Jun 刘 珺 focusing on the studies of international finance, in Lu Lei 陆 磊 particular the international monetary system and David Marsh Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva RMB internationalization.
    [Show full text]
  • Excerpts of Remarks by Di Dongsheng
    Excerpts of remarks by Di Dongsheng, associate dean, School of International Relations at Renmin University of China on Nov 28, 2020 in Shanghai on the television program “The Answers.” The topic for a panel discussion was “Will China’s Opening Up in the Financial Sector Attract Wall Street Wolves?” Trump waged a trade war with us. Why couldn’t we handle him? Why is it that between 1992 and 2016 we always resolved issues with US? Did you guys know? All the crisis, the Yinhe incident, bombing of the embassy or the mid-air collision, everything was taken care of swiftly, in no more than two months. Why? Now, I’m going to drop a bomb - because we had people up there [laughter] inside America’s core circle of power, we had our old friends. Due to time constraint, I won't expand on that, but let me very quickly tell you a short story. Director General Zhang Zhixiang spoke well with some amazing stories. So here is my story. Well,… it was… because we are on live streaming, millions of people are watching, I have to be careful how many details I go into, I can’t turn them in. (a literal and more direct translation: I can't sell out these people )[laughter] Let me just put it this way: It was in 2015, before the second last visit to the U.S. by Secretary General Xi [Jinping[. As we all know, everybody in the system must warm things up for his visit. The way one organization in the Party did the warm-up was to boost some publicity, i.e.
    [Show full text]
  • Protecting Pegged Currency Markets from Speculative Investors Arxiv
    Protecting Pegged Currency Markets from Speculative Investors Eyal Neuman∗ Alexander Schied∗∗ February 16, 2020 Abstract We consider a stochastic game between a trader and a central bank in a target zone market with a lower currency peg. This currency peg is maintained by the central bank through the generation of permanent price impact, thereby aggregating an ever increasing risky position in foreign reserves. We describe this situation mathematically by means of two coupled singular control problems, where the common singularity arises from a local time along a random curve. Our first result identifies a certain local time as that central bank strategy for which this risk position is minimized. We then consider the worst-case situation the central bank may face by identifying that strategy of the strategic investor that maximizes the expected inventory of the central bank under a cost criterion, thus establishing a Stackelberg equilibrium in our model. Mathematics Subject Classification 2010: 93E20, 91G80, 60J55 Key words: currency peg, market impact, target zone models, singular stochastic control, local time, Stackelberg equilibrium 1 Introduction In September 16 of 1992, a day which is known as Black Wednesday, the British government was forced to step out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Shortly before this arXiv:1801.07784v5 [q-fin.MF] 17 Feb 2021 crucial date, the British pound exchange rate was close to its lower limit, and currency market speculators were trying to take advantage of this opportunity to drive down the exchange rate by making immense short orders. Among the other speculators stood out George Soros who shorted 10 billion pounds within a single day.
    [Show full text]
  • The Political in Political Economy: Historicising the Great Crisis of Spanish Residential Capitalism
    A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick Permanent WRAP URL: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/129362 Copyright and reuse: This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected] warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications The Political in Political Economy: Historicising the Great Crisis of Spanish Residential Capitalism By Javier Moreno Zacarés A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics and International Studies University of Warwick Department of Politics and International Studies September 2018 Table of Contents List of Illustrations ........................................................................................................ v Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... vi Abstract ....................................................................................................................... vii Abbreviations ............................................................................................................. viii INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 1 0.1. THE CASE: WHY IT MATTERS ...............................................................................
    [Show full text]