Anatomy of a Crisis
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The Future of Europe the Eurozone and the Next Recession Content
April 2019 Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research The future of Europe The Eurozone and the next recession Content 03 Editorial Publication details This report has been prepared by UBS AG and UBS Switzerland AG. Chapter 1: Business cycle Please see important disclaimer and 05 Cyclical position disclosures at the end of the document. 08 Imbalances This report was published on April 9 2019 10 Emerging markets Authors Ricardo Garcia (Editor in chief) Chapter 2: Policy space Jens Anderson Michael Bolliger 14 Institutional framework Kiran Ganesh Matteo Ramenghi 16 Fiscal space Roberto Scholtes Fabio Trussardi 19 Monetary space Dean Turner Thomas Veraguth Thomas Wacker Chapter 3: Impact Contributors Paul Donovan 23 Bond markets Elisabetta Ferrara Tom Flury 26 Banks Bert Jansen Claudia Panseri 29 Euro Achim Peijan Louis Pfau Giovanni Staunovo Themis Themistocleous Appendix Desktop Publishing 32 The evolution of the EU: A timeline Margrit Oppliger 33 Europe in numbers Cover photo 34 2020–2025 stress-test scenario assumptions Gettyimages Printer Neidhart + Schön, Zurich Languages English, German and Italian Contact [email protected] Order or subscribe UBS clients can subscribe to the print version of The future of Europe via their client advisor or the Printed & Branded Products Mailbox: [email protected] Electronic subscription is also available via the Investment Views on the UBS e-banking platform. 2 April 2019 – The future of Europe Editorial “Whatever it takes.” These words of Mario Draghi’s marked the inflection point in the last recession and paved the way to the present economic recovery. But as the euro celebrates its 20th birthday, the world and investors are beset again by recessionary fears, with risks mounting and likely to continue doing so in the coming years. -
Saxony: Landscapes/Rivers and Lakes/Climate
Freistaat Sachsen State Chancellery Message and Greeting ................................................................................................................................................. 2 State and People Delightful Saxony: Landscapes/Rivers and Lakes/Climate ......................................................................................... 5 The Saxons – A people unto themselves: Spatial distribution/Population structure/Religion .......................... 7 The Sorbs – Much more than folklore ............................................................................................................ 11 Then and Now Saxony makes history: From early days to the modern era ..................................................................................... 13 Tabular Overview ........................................................................................................................................................ 17 Constitution and Legislature Saxony in fine constitutional shape: Saxony as Free State/Constitution/Coat of arms/Flag/Anthem ....................... 21 Saxony’s strong forces: State assembly/Political parties/Associations/Civic commitment ..................................... 23 Administrations and Politics Saxony’s lean administration: Prime minister, ministries/State administration/ State budget/Local government/E-government/Simplification of the law ............................................................................... 29 Saxony in Europe and in the world: Federalism/Europe/International -
Fear and Terror: the Expulsion of Polish Jews from Saxony/Germany in October 1938 Uta Larkey Goucher College, Baltimore, MD, USA
Fear and Terror: The Expulsion of Polish Jews from Saxony/Germany in October 1938 Uta Larkey Goucher College, Baltimore, MD, USA ABSTRACT This article is a regional study that focuses on the expulsion of Jews with Polish citizenship from Saxony, mostly long-term legal residents of Germany, in the context of the so- called ‘Polenaktion’ (27–29 October 1938). The article gives a brief overview of the expulsion of Polish Jews from Germany and highlights the special circumstances in Saxony, specifically in Leipzig. The article examines the role of the local police forces in carrying out the arrests and transports to the German–Polish border. It further draws attention to the tumultuous situation near Beuthen (Bytom) where the distressed expellees were chased across the border into Polish territory. The article also traces the steps of individuals and families after their disorienting arrival in Poland. Finally it addresses the question of the ‘returnees’ – a limited number of expellees who were allowed to return to their hometowns in Germany for a short period in order to take care of their businesses, financial affairs and apartments. Highlighting Saxony as one example, this article shows that the brutal mass expulsion of Polish Jews from Germany was not only an unprecedented act of mass violence and viciousness against Jews in Germany, but also became a precursor, a ‘test case,’ for subsequent mass deportations. The Security Service of the Reichsführer-SS and the Main Office of the Security Police most likely did not have fully developed plans for mass deportations ready in October 1938. However, the Nazi authorities could draw on their experiences during the Polenaktion with regard to logistics, coordination of administrative steps and offices, panic control, intimidation, and brutality. -
'The Birth of the Euro' from <I>EUROPE</I> (December 2001
'The birth of the euro' from EUROPE (December 2001-January 2002) Caption: On the eve of the entry into circulation of euro notes and coins on January 1, 2002, the author of the article relates the history of the single currency's birth. Source: EUROPE. Magazine of the European Union. Dir. of publ. Hélin, Willy ; REditor Guttman, Robert J. December 2001/January 2002, No 412. Washington DC: Delegation of the European Commission to the United States. ISSN 0191- 4545. Copyright: (c) EUROPE Magazine, all rights reserved The magazine encourages reproduction of its contents, but any such reproduction without permission is prohibited. URL: http://www.cvce.eu/obj/the_birth_of_the_euro_from_europe_december_2001_january_2002-en-fe85d070-dd8b- 4985-bb6f-d64a39f653ba.html Publication date: 01/10/2012 1 / 5 01/10/2012 The birth of the euro By Lionel Barber On January 1, 2002, more than 300 million European citizens will see the euro turn from a virtual currency into reality. The entry into circulation of euro notes and coins means that European Monetary Union (EMU), a project devised by Europe’s political elite over more than a generation, has finally come down to the street. The psychological and economic consequences of the launch of Europe’s single currency will be far- reaching. It will mark the final break from national currencies, promising a cultural revolution built on stable prices, enduring fiscal discipline, and lower interest rates. The origins of the euro go back to the late 1960s, when the Europeans were searching for a response to the upheaval in the Bretton Woods system, in which the US dollar was the dominant currency. -
Chronology of Events 1918 – 1938
Chronology of Events 1918-1938 1918: Czechoslovakia is established after the fall of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire following the First World War. The country is made up of two groups of Slavic peoples, the Czechs and the Slovaks. 1920: The Treaty of Versailles, in which Germany is held responsible for World War I and its consequences, is signed. The treaty deals harshly with a defeated Germany and includes territorial, military, financial and general provisions, including the demilitarization and 15-year occupation of the Rhineland (area between France and Germany), limitations on German armed forces and reparations of 6,600 million pounds. 1921: Adolf Hitler becomes leader of National Socialist German Workers (Nazi) Party. 1923: Beer Hall Putsch (Hitler’s attempt to overthrow regional government in Munich) is unsuccessful and Hitler is jailed. 1925: Mein Kampf (My Struggle), Hitler’s book, is published. 1933: Japan attacks China. The Nazi party gains majority in the German Reichstag and Hitler is named Chancellor. The Reichstag building burns in a “mysterious” fire and all other political parties are abolished. Hitler denounces the Treaty of Versailles. There are public book burnings in Germany. Anti-Jewish laws are passed in Germany: no kosher butchering, no Jewish Civil servants, no Jewish lawyers, quotas for Jews in universities. Any Germans holding non-Nazi political meetings are subject to arrest and imprisonment in concentration camps (the first is Oranienburg, outside of Berlin). Dachau is built as concentration-work camp (specific death camps not yet built, but elderly, those who were very young, disabled or sick have difficulty surviving harsh conditions of camps). -
Unit I Spiral Exam – World War II (75 Points Total) PLEASE DO NO
Mr. Huesken 10th Grade United States History II Unit I Spiral Exam – World War II (75 points total) PLEASE DO NO WRITE ON THIS TEST DIRECTIONS – Please answer the following multiple-choice questions with the best possible answer. No answer will be used more than once. (45 questions @ 1 point each = 45 points) 1) All of the following were leaders of totalitarian governments in the 1930’s and 1940’s except: a. Joseph Stalin b. Francisco Franco. c. Benito Mussolini d. Neville Chamberlain. 2) In what country was the Fascist party and government formed? a. Italy b. Japan c. Spain d. Germany 3) The Battle of Britain forced Germany to do what to their war plans in Europe in 1942? a. Join the Axis powers. b. Fight a three-front war. c. Put off the invasion of Britain. d. Enter into a nonaggression pact with Britain. 4) The Nazis practiced genocide toward Jews, Gypsies, and other “undesirable” peoples in Europe. What does the term “genocide” mean? a. Acting out of anti-Semitic beliefs. b. Deliberate extermination of a specific group of people. c. Terrorizing of the citizens of a nation by a government. d. Killing of people for the express purpose of creating terror. 5) The term “blitzkrieg” was a military strategy that depended on what? a. A system of fortifications. b. Out-waiting the opponent. c. Surprise and quick, overwhelming force. d. The ability to make a long, steady advance. 6) In an effort to avoid a second “world war”, when did the Britain and France adopt a policy of appeasement toward Germany? a. -
Black Wednesday’
Salmond currency plan threatens a Scottish ‘Black Wednesday’ Alex Salmond has five plans for the currency of an independent Scotland according to his list in the STV debate on 25th August (and then there is the latent plan F). They were presented as a range of equally attractive options. This makes light of the issue. One of the options – using “a currency like the Danish krone” - means entering the ERM (the Exchange Rate Mechanism) that the UK was so disastrously a part of and which the UK wasted a meaningful portion of its foreign exchange reserves (£48 billion in today’s money) trying to stay within just on 16th September 1992. That was Black Wednesday, when the Bank of England base rate went up to 15%. Notably Alex Salmond omitted to mention the Norwegian krone: Scotland, with high public spending, too little oil&gas left in the North Sea, and an all-in national debt of £131 billion equivalent on a GDP of £146 billion, will need its oil&gas tax revenues to either defend its currency or manage its debt, and will not have enough left over for a Sovereign Wealth Fund. Scotland has the attributes of a lax fiscal policy now: a current deficit of taxes versus spending (called a primary fiscal deficit) of 5% of GDP, with extra spending promised by the SNP that could expand an already high debt as a proportion of GDP. The debt is likely to start out at above 70% in cash, plus another 20% in contingent liabilities like PFI, backing for Bank of Scotland and RBS, and Scotland’s share of the Euro bailout of Ireland and Portugal. -
Why the Euro Will Collapse
Why the Euro will collapse Whither Europe ?’ CIBAM Global Business Symposium 21 June 2013 Michael Kitson University of Cambridge www.michaelkitson.org https://twitter.com/MichaelKitson Europe is not working Source: Eurostat: 2013 Unemployment in Europe (April 2013) Source: Eurostat, 2013 Youth unemployment rates in Europe, Jan 2000 - April 2013 (%) Source: Eurostat, 2013 Source: Eurostat Explaining the crisis • A debt crisis austerity is the solution • A ‘structural’ or ‘competitiveness’ problem reducing the role of the state and more ‘competition’ • A Euro problem the single currency is structurally flawed The Euro problem • Combined countries together with different structures and different business cycles • Lack of policy flexibility • Lack of market flexibility • Why has the Euro problem not emerged before? • Masked by the twin deficits: – fiscal – balance of payments Source: Eurostat database Source: Eurostat database Balance of payments on current account, selected countries (% of GDP) Source: Simon Wren-Lewis: http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/other-eurozone-crisis.html The lack of policy flexibility • Exchange rates • Monetary policy • Fiscal policy • Resource transfers Eurozone: long-term interest rates, 1993-2013 Author: Spitzl, available on a creative commons license, (GNU Free Documentation License) Data Source: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu European Fiscal Compact • A debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% • A general budget deficit less than 3.0% of the GDP • A structural deficit of less than 1.0% of GDP if the debt-to-GDP ratio -
Militarism As a Theme in Nazi Education and Youth Organizations Matthew .J Smith Elizabethtown College, [email protected]
Elizabethtown College JayScholar History: Student Scholarship & Creative Work History Spring 2018 Militarism as a Theme in Nazi Education and Youth Organizations Matthew .J Smith Elizabethtown College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://jayscholar.etown.edu/hisstu Part of the European History Commons Recommended Citation Smith, Matthew J., "Militarism as a Theme in Nazi Education and Youth Organizations" (2018). History: Student Scholarship & Creative Work. 2. https://jayscholar.etown.edu/hisstu/2 This Student Research Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the History at JayScholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in History: Student Scholarship & Creative Work by an authorized administrator of JayScholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Smith 1 Matthew J. Smith Militarism as a Theme in Nazi Education and Youth Organizations Italian fascist Achille Starace stated, “Fascist education must be an education for battle.”1 This idea of militarism as a core concept of education was integral not only to Fascism in Italy, but also to Europe’s other rising fascist movement, Nazism. The Nazis reinforced their militaristic education by creating mandatory youth organizations that promoted militarism to young German boys and girls. The twin pillars of a militaristic education system and para- military youth organizations helped Nazi officials achieve their goals by creating a generation of ready servants of the state. Many scholars have researched the militarism that was infused into the German state education system. Lisa Pine, a scholar at London South Bank University, examined the educational system and youth groups that socialized German children with Nazi ideology and militaristic practices. -
Brexit: the End of the Beginning
ACCESS A BROADER MARKET PERSPECTIVE BREXIT: THE END OF THE BEGINNING BY PETER MADIGAN LONG DIVISION The defining moments that led up to the current deadlock over Brexit JANUARY 1, 1973 The United Kingdom accedes to the European Economic Community, a free trade and customs union JUNE 5, 1975 In a referendum on continued EEC membership, the UK votes 67.2% in favor of remaining part of the bloc SEPTEMBER 16, 1992 Black Wednesday—GBP is forced to leave the ERM NOVEMBER 1, 1993 The EEC becomes the European Union, evolving from an economic union into a political union JANUARY 1, 1999 Launch of the euro, the EU’s official currency MAY 1, 2004 Ten new Eastern European and Mediterranean nations accede to EU membership OCTOBER 4, 2009 New Greek government elected, revealing scale of Greece’s public sector deficit. European sovereign debt crisis begins JUNE 23, 2016 UK referendum on whether to withdraw from the EU. Nation votes 51.9% in favor of leaving the bloc OCTOBER 17, 2019 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson negotiates amended departure agreement with EU leaders DECEMBER 12, 2019 UK general election. Johnson seeks Conservative majority to push his deal through UK Parliament JANUARY 31, 2020 Current deadline for the UK to leave the EU SOURCE: BNY MELLON COVER ILLUSTRATION: ROB DOBI WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL FATE OF THE UK’S STORIED RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE SEEDS OF THE TORTURED BREXIT SAGA WERE SOWN MORE THAN THREE DECADES AGO. YET, FAR FROM HERALDING A NEW ERA FOR UK-EU RELATIONS, THE REFERENDUM HAS ONLY SERVED TO DEEPEN PREEXISTING DIVISIONS WHILE DESTABILIZING BRITISH POLITICS. -
Holocaust Education Standards Grade 4 Standard 1: SS.4.HE.1
1 Proposed Holocaust Education Standards Grade 4 Standard 1: SS.4.HE.1. Foundations of Holocaust Education SS.4.HE.1.1 Compare and contrast Judaism to other major religions observed around the world, and in the United States and Florida. Grade 5 Standard 1: SS.5.HE.1. Foundations of Holocaust Education SS.5.HE.1.1 Define antisemitism as prejudice against or hatred of the Jewish people. Students will recognize the Holocaust as history’s most extreme example of antisemitism. Teachers will provide students with an age-appropriate definition of with the Holocaust. Grades 6-8 Standard 1: SS.68.HE.1. Foundations of Holocaust Education SS.68.HE.1.1 Define the Holocaust as the planned and systematic, state-sponsored persecution and murder of European Jews by Nazi Germany and its collaborators between 1933 and 1945. Students will recognize the Holocaust as history’s most extreme example of antisemitism. Students will define antisemitism as prejudice against or hatred of Jewish people. Grades 9-12 Standard 1: SS.HE.912.1. Analyze the origins of antisemitism and its use by the National Socialist German Workers' Party (Nazi) regime. SS.912.HE.1.1 Define the terms Shoah and Holocaust. Students will distinguish how the terms are appropriately applied in different contexts. SS.912.HE.1.2 Explain the origins of antisemitism. Students will recognize that the political, social and economic applications of antisemitism led to the organized pogroms against Jewish people. Students will recognize that The Protocols of the Elders of Zion are a hoax and utilized as propaganda against Jewish people both in Europe and internationally. -
German’ Communities from Eastern Europe at the End of the Second World War
EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY AND CIVILIZATION EUI Working Paper HEC No. 2004/1 The Expulsion of the ‘German’ Communities from Eastern Europe at the End of the Second World War Edited by STEFFEN PRAUSER and ARFON REES BADIA FIESOLANA, SAN DOMENICO (FI) All rights reserved. No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form without permission of the author(s). © 2004 Steffen Prauser and Arfon Rees and individual authors Published in Italy December 2004 European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50016 San Domenico (FI) Italy www.iue.it Contents Introduction: Steffen Prauser and Arfon Rees 1 Chapter 1: Piotr Pykel: The Expulsion of the Germans from Czechoslovakia 11 Chapter 2: Tomasz Kamusella: The Expulsion of the Population Categorized as ‘Germans' from the Post-1945 Poland 21 Chapter 3: Balázs Apor: The Expulsion of the German Speaking Population from Hungary 33 Chapter 4: Stanislav Sretenovic and Steffen Prauser: The “Expulsion” of the German Speaking Minority from Yugoslavia 47 Chapter 5: Markus Wien: The Germans in Romania – the Ambiguous Fate of a Minority 59 Chapter 6: Tillmann Tegeler: The Expulsion of the German Speakers from the Baltic Countries 71 Chapter 7: Luigi Cajani: School History Textbooks and Forced Population Displacements in Europe after the Second World War 81 Bibliography 91 EUI WP HEC 2004/1 Notes on the Contributors BALÁZS APOR, STEFFEN PRAUSER, PIOTR PYKEL, STANISLAV SRETENOVIC and MARKUS WIEN are researchers in the Department of History and Civilization, European University Institute, Florence. TILLMANN TEGELER is a postgraduate at Osteuropa-Institut Munich, Germany. Dr TOMASZ KAMUSELLA, is a lecturer in modern European history at Opole University, Opole, Poland.