water
Article How Do Ground Litter and Canopy Regulate Surface Runoff?—A Paired-Plot Investigation after 80 Years of Broadleaf Forest Regeneration
Anand Nainar 1,* , Koju Kishimoto 2, Koichi Takahashi 2,3, Mie Gomyo 2 and Koichiro Kuraji 4,*
1 Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Jalan UMS, Kota Kinabalu 88400, Sabah, Malaysia 2 Ecohydrology Research Institute, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 11-44, Goizuka, Seto 489-0031, Japan; [email protected] (K.K.); [email protected] (K.T.); [email protected] (M.G.) 3 Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo Forest, 9-61 Yamabe Higashimachi, Furano 079-1563, Japan 4 Executive Office, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo Forests, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan * Correspondence: [email protected] (A.N.); [email protected] (K.K.)
Abstract: Relatively minimal attention has been given to the hydrology of natural broadleaf forests compared to conifer plantations in Japan. We investigated the impacts of ground litter removal and forest clearing on surface runoff using the paired runoff plot approach. Plot A (7.4 m2) was maintained as a control while plot B (8.1 m2) was manipulated. Surface runoff was measured by a tipping-bucket recorder, and rainfall by a tipping-bucket rain gauge. From May 2016 to July 2019, 20, 54, and 42 runoff events were recorded in the no-treatment (NT), litter removed before clearcutting Citation: Nainar, A.; Kishimoto, K.; (LRBC), and after clearcutting (AC) phases, respectively. Surface runoff increased 4× when moving Takahashi, K.; Gomyo, M.; Kuraji, K. from the NT to LRBC phase, and 4.4× when moving from the LRBC to AC phase. Antecedent How Do Ground Litter and Canopy Regulate Surface Runoff?—A Paired- precipitation index (API11) had a significant influence on surface runoff in the LRBC phase but not in Plot Investigation after 80 Years of the NT and AC phases. Surface runoff in the AC phase was high regardless of API11. The rainfall Broadleaf Forest Regeneration. Water required for initiating surface runoff is 38% and 56% less when moving from the NT to LRBC, and 2021, 13, 1205. https://doi.org/ LRBC to AC phases, respectively. Ground litter and canopy function to reduce surface runoff in 10.3390/w13091205 regenerated broadleaf forests.
Academic Editor: David Dunkerley Keywords: litter; canopy; logging; overland flow; surface runoff; interception; broadleaf; forest
Received: 19 March 2021 Accepted: 23 April 2021 Published: 27 April 2021 1. Introduction As of 2017, approximately 25 million ha (67%) of land area in Japan is forested. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral Plantation forests make up approximately 40% of the forested area while the remaining with regard to jurisdictional claims in 60% is natural forests [1,2]. From 1966 to 2017, plantation forests have increased by 29% published maps and institutional affil- iations. to 10.2 million ha while natural forests shrunk by 13% to 13.5 million ha [1]. While forested areas remain high (twice the world’s average of 29%), the proportion of forest type (broadleaf, conifer, mixed, natural, and plantation forests) fluctuates according to market forces, situational demands, and governmental policies [1,3]. Conifer plantation forests are expected to expand, but instead, some conifer forests are being reverted to broadleaf Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. forests [4]. At the same time, some broadleaf and mixed-forests are also being cleared to Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. make way for development [5]. This article is an open access article Since hydrology is highly influenced by forests, there is a need to understand how distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons these forests (and their modification) affect runoff processes and water resources. In the Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// past, there have been extensive studies carried out on hydrological processes in cypress creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ plantations, including those investigating the hydrological impacts of forest conversion [6], 4.0/). forest litter [7,8], tree physiology [9,10], and various management practices [11,12]. The
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focus on cypress plantation was a result of its rapid expansion between 1970 and 2000 that was driven by the government’s economic policy. Up to date, temperate broadleaf forests and mixed-forests especially those which had undergone restoration have received rela- tively little attention, although there are some exemplary studies [13,14]. More specifically, the hydrological role of ground litter and the canopy are not yet well-understood. Such knowledge is needed because more and more forests in suburban areas are being cleared for development. The resulting hydrological changes need to be quantified to better for- mulate preventive and corrective measures. At the same time, due to the lack of economic incentives, vast forest areas in the interior remain unharvested and untended, causing ground litter to thicken [13,15]. Therefore, knowledge on how ground litter affect runoff is equally important. These two knowledge gaps, (i) hydrological role of ground litter and (ii) hydrological role of canopy in temperate broadleaf forests make up the motivation for the present study. A number of studies that focuses on the hydrological role of ground litter have been conducted in the past: Li et al. [16] investigated the relationship between ground litter and surface runoff in northern China. Prosdocimi et al. [17] performed a similar experiment in Mediterranean vineyards. Zhou et al. [18] carried out a microplot-scale observation of surface runoff generation in differing ground litter and topsoil depths in Guizhou province, China, and have highlighted challenges in upscaling these findings to the catchment scale. In Japan, Miyata et al. [19] studied surface runoff generation and soil erosion in mature Japanese cypress plantations under varying ground litter coverage conditions. To date, there is little investigation on the role of ground litter on surface runoff dynamics in naturally regenerated broadleaf forest in Japan. One existing example is a study by Gomyo and Kuraji [13], in which they demonstrated the effects of litter removal at the catchment scale. The study found that 3-year runoff increased by 2.7% (80.3 mm) post treatment. In addition, peak runoff was up to 1.5 times greater. This suggests that the effects of litter interception was greater than that of runoff-on-litter [20], and that the increased ground evaporation from litter removal did not offset the increased effective rainfall [11]. Such catchment study is rare due to the required time and labour. In Japan, studies focussing on the hydrological role of the canopy or on the impacts of clearcutting broadleaf forests are scarcer because most efforts had been focussed on cypress plantation forests. Most studies that were conducted in Japan are related to the effects of thinning of conifer plantations, whereby thinning reduces canopy interception and may increase the likelihood of floods [21]. At the time of writing, the authors found only one study in Tochigi prefecture, eastern Japan, that reported canopy interception in a regenerated multi-layered broadleaf forest to be 21% [14]. The impacts on surface runoff from clearcutting broadleaf forests and mixed-forest remain unexplored. Results from catchment-scale studies may better represent that of real-world condi- tions. However, due to the presence of various environmental factors, sources, and sinks, it is difficult to understand the individual underlying mechanisms. In particular, does the presence of litter buffer (due to interception) or enhance (due to runoff-on-litter) surface runoff? With regards clearcutting, will surface runoff increase (from increased throughfall) or decrease (from decreased stemflow)? These uncertainties have been highlighted by past studies [13,20] and can be better elucidated via a plot-scale experiment. Furthermore, Liu et al. [22], in an extensive review, emphasised that it is necessary to isolate the differ- ent ways in which vertical vegetation component control runoff. Understanding the role of each of these vertical vegetation structures and their inter-dependency will be useful in determining the efficient architectures and morphologies of vegetation for ecological restoration. Liu et al. [22] also emphasized that more effort should be made in quantifying the roles of these vertical structures of vegetation to be used in improving models. This study took place in western Aichi prefecture—a region that was historically subjected to heavy forest exploitation up to 1910s. As a result, high sediment yields and landslides were a common phenomenon [23]. Since then, over a century of forest restoration was carried out, resulting in the secondary mixed-forest cover (predominantly broadleaf) Water 2021, 13, 1205 3 of 17 Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 17
todaywas carried [24,25]. out, However, resulting duein the to secondary their proximity mixed-forest to urban cover areas, (predominantly more and more broadleaf) of such areastoday are [24,25]. being However, cleared to due make to their way forproximity development to urban (i.e., areas, residential, more and commercial, more of such and industrialareas are buildings)being cleared in recent to make years way [4 ,for5]. Fordevelopment this reason, (i.e., it isresidential, also important commercial, to understand and theindustrial impacts buildings) of clearcutting in recent secondary years [4,5]. broadleaf For this forests reason, on surfaceit is also runoff. important In this to study,under- we extendstand previousthe impacts works of clearcutting [13,26,27] bysecondary observing broadleaf at the plot forests scale, on changes surface inrunoff. surface In this runoff afterstudy, litter we removal extend previous and clearcutting. works [13,26,27] We hypothesise by observing that at surface the plot runoff scale, willchanges increase in sur- with litterface removalrunoff after and litter clearcutting removal and in a clearcutti regeneratedng. We temperate hypothesise broadleaf that surface forest. runoff At a will larger scale,increase this with may litter have removal implication and clearcutting on floods during in a regenerated storm events. temperate broadleaf forest. At a larger scale, this may have implication on floods during storm events. 2. Materials and Methods 2.1.2. Materials Study Area and Methods 2.1. ExperimentalStudy Area plots were set up in the 13.9-ha Ananomiya Experimental Forest of the EcohydrologyExperimental Researchplots were Institute, set up in thethe 13.9-ha University Ananomiya of Tokyo Experimental Forests, in SetoForest city, of the Aichi prefectureEcohydrology (Figure Research1). The Institute, general area,the University traditionally of Tokyo known Forests, as the in Eastern Seto city, Owari Aichi Hills, pre- is knownfecture for (Figure a long 1). history The general of ceramic area, and traditionally pottery production. known as Asthe a Eastern result of Owari intensive Hills, timber is harvestingknown for toa long be used history as kilnof ceramic fuel, the and area pottery was production. characterised As a by result denuded of intensive hills with timber bare, exposedharvesting subsoil to be inused the as past kiln (Figures fuel, the2 areaand 3was)[ 24characterised,25]. Another by denuded round of hills intensive with bare, timber exploitationexposed subsoil took in place the past during (Figures the Meiji 2 and era 3) (1868–1912), [24,25]. Another when round industrialisation of intensive timber in Japan wasexploitation at its peak took [25]. place High during sediment the yieldsMeiji era and (1868–1912), landslides hadwhen been industrialisation a common phenomenon. in Japan Withwas auspicesat its peak from [25]. the High government, sediment yields the Ananomiya and landslides Experimental had been a Forestcommon (AEF) phenome- area was establishednon. With auspices in 1922 byfrom the the Tokyo government, Imperial the University Ananomiya (University Experimental of Tokyo, Forest today(AEF) area for the purposewas established of restoring in 1922 forests by andthe Tokyo preventing Imperial erosion-related University (U hillslopeniversity disasters. of Tokyo, Construction today for ofthe a weirpurpose dam of was restoring completed forests in and 1924, preventi and hydrologicalng erosion-related and meteorological hillslope disasters. observations Con- commencedstruction of ina weir 1925 dam [24]. was Although completed this in site 1924, was and severely hydrological denuded and in meteorological the past, forest ob- cover hasservations now recovered commenced due toin 1925 restoration-planting [24]. Although this efforts site was (known severely as “sabo denuded planting”), in the past, where Japaneseforest cover red pinehas now (Pinus recovered densiflora due) and to restorat Japaneseion-planting black pine efforts (Pinus (known thunbergii as “sabo) were plant- planted asing”), the pioneerwhere Japanese species red [24 pine,25]. (Pinus Figure densiflora2 shows) and photographs Japanese black of one pine of (Pinus the hillslopesthunbergii) in thewere experimental planted as the forest pioneer in its species denuded [24,25]. state Figure in 1924 2 andshows recovered photographs state of in one 2021. of Aerialthe photographshillslopes in (Figurethe experimental3) show the forest gradual in its recovery denuded of state forest in through1924 and therecovered years 1948, state 1976,in and2021. 2010. Aerial photographs (Figure 3) show the gradual recovery of forest through the years 1948, 1976, and 2010.
Figure 1. Study area. Map of Japan and Aichi prefecture were drawn via the software R v.4.0.3 using packages “maps”, “mapdata”, and “mapproj”. Map of AEF and contours were obtained from the archives of the Ecohydrology Research Institute [28].
Water 2021,, 13,, xx FORFOR PEERPEER REVIEWREVIEW 4 of 17
Water 2021, 13, 1205 Figure 1. Study area. Map of Japan and Aichi prefecture were drawn via the software R v.4.0.34 of 17 using packages “maps”, “mapdata”, and “mapproj”. Map of AEF and contours were obtained from the archives of the Ecohydrology Research Institute [28].
Figure 2. (a) Denuded state in 1924, (b) regenerated forest cover in 2021. Red dot is reference Figure 2. (a) Denuded state in 1924, (b) regenerated forest cover in 2021. Red dot is reference point. point.
Figure 3. Gradual forest recovery in the Ananomiya experimental forest area. (a) White areas are Figure 3. Gradual forest recovery in the Ananomiya experimental forest area. (a) White areas are bare and exposed weathered granite subsoil. (b,,c) show gradual forest recovery—corresponding bare and exposed weathered granite subsoil. (b,c) show gradual forest recovery—corresponding to to the reducing bare (white) areas. The reference point (red dot) is the same as in Figure 2. the reducing bare (white) areas. The reference point (red dot) is the same as in Figure2. The area has a warm temperate climate characterised by hot summers, moderate win- The area has a warm temperate climate characterised by hot summers, moderate ters, and high annual rainfall that occurs mainly in two distinct wet periods—the Baiu winters, and high annual rainfall that occurs mainly in two distinct wet periods—the Baiu season (May–June) with frequent and prolonged rain events; and the typhoon season seasonseason (May–June)(May–June) withwith frequentfrequent andand prolongedprolonged rainrain events;events; andand thethe typhoontyphoon seasonseason (September–October) with high-intensity rainfall [27]. Annual rainfall is 1594 mm year−1 (September–October)(September–October) with with high-intensity high-intensity rainfall rainfall [ 27[27].]. Annual Annual rainfall rainfall is is 1594 1594 mm mm year year−1 (averaged 1 May 2016–30 April 2019). The annual mean temperature is 12–15 °C, but the (averaged(averaged 11 MayMay 2016–302016–30 April 2019). 2019). The The annual annual mean mean temperature temperature is is12–15 12–15 °C,◦ C,but but the extremes may reach −12 °C (dawn, in winter) and 39 °C (midday, in summer). Daily aver- theextremes extremes may may reach reach −12− °C12 (dawn,◦C (dawn, in winter) in winter) and and39 °C 39 (midday,◦C (midday, in summer). in summer). Daily Daily aver- ages of relative humidity range between 55 and 99.7% (data from on-site meteorological averagesages of relative of relative humidity humidity range range between between 55 55 and and 99.7% 99.7% (data (data from on-site meteorologicalmeteorological station). The dominant geology is a deep cretaceous layer overlain by weathered granite. station).station). TheThe dominantdominant geologygeology isis aa deepdeep cretaceouscretaceous layerlayer overlainoverlain byby weatheredweathered granite.granite. ThroughThrough soilsoil corecore samplingsampling aroundaround thethe plotsplots followedfollowed byby thethejar jar test, test,percentage percentagesand sand (15.03–20.61%),(15.03–20.61%), silt silt (26.22–39.05%), (26.22–39.05%), and and clay clay (43.21–53.18%), (43.21–53.18%), show show that that the the soil soil texture texture is of is −3 −3 theof the clay clay type type [29 ].[29]. Bulk Bulk density density range range is 808.3–1069.2 is 808.3–1069.2 kg mkg− m3 (mean−3 (mean(mean = 928.7== 928.7928.7 kg kgkg m −mm3−).3). AtAt present,present, the the areaarea hashas aa temperatetemperate mixed-forestmixed-forestcomposition compositionwith with dominant dominantcanopy canopy speciesspecies comprisingcomprising QuercusQuercus serrataserrata andandand Ilex Ilex pedunculosapedunculosa... TheTheThe sub-canopysub-canopysub-canopy layerlayerlayer isisis domi-domi-domi- natednated bybyEurya Eurya japonicajaponica,,,Lyonia Lyonia ovalifoliaovalifoliaand andandGamblea Gamblea innovansinnovans;;; while whilewhile the thethe ground groundground cover, cover,cover, by byby SasaSasa nipponica nipponicaand andandDicranopteris Dicranopteris dichotoma dichotoma... Although AlthoughAlthough this thisthis is isis a aa secondary secondarysecondary mixed-forest, mixed-forest,mixed-forest, the thethe numbernumber ofof pioneerpioneer coniferconifer treestrees (black(black pinepine andand redred pine)pine) isis smallsmall owingowing toto speciesspecies suc-suc- cession.cession. TreesTrees in in and and aroundaround thethe experimentalexperimental plotsplots areare broadleaved;broadleaved; therefore,therefore, effectively effectively makingmaking thisthis studystudy aa comparison comparison inin a a broadleaf broadleaf forest. forest. Stand Stand density density is is 1925 1925 stems/ha, stems/ha, whichwhich comprises comprises canopy canopy trees trees (>9 (>9 m m in in height; height; 725 725 stems/ha) stems/ha) andand sub-canopysub-canopy trees trees (3–9 (3–9 m m inin height; height; 1200 1200 stems/ha). stems/ha).
2.2. Treatment and Data Collection Two sloping experimental plots, A (7.4 m2) and B (8.1 m2), were established with a 4.2-m buffer in-between (Figure4). Boundaries of each plot were created by inserting hard plastic (roofing) sheets into the ground. The boundary was made contiguous to prevent leakage of surface runoff. The mean slope for plots A and B were 35◦ and 28◦, respectively. At the bottom boundary of each plot, a gutter was installed to collect overland Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 17
2.2. Treatment and Data Collection Two sloping experimental plots, A (7.4 m2) and B (8.1 m2), were established with a Water 2021, 13, 1205 4.2-m buffer in-between (Figure 4). Boundaries of each plot were created by inserting5 of hard 17 plastic (roofing) sheets into the ground. The boundary was made contiguous to prevent leakage of surface runoff. The mean slope for plots A and B were 35° and 28°, respectively. At the bottom boundary of each plot, a gutter was installed to collect overland flow which flow which was then channelled via a PVC pipe to an ‘Uizin UIZ-TB200’ tipping-bucket gauge.was then Throughout channelled the via study a PVC period, pipe no to treatment an ‘Uizin was UIZ-TB200’ applied to tipping-bucket plot A (control gauge. plot) whereasThroughout litter removalthe study followed period, byno clearcuttingtreatment wa weres applied carried to outplot in A plot (control B. plot) whereas litter removal followed by clearcutting were carried out in plot B.
FigureFigure 4. 4.Experimental Experimental plots. plots. Treatments Treatments were were applied applied to to the the shaded shaded area area (larger (larger than than plot plot B). B).
ToTo ensure ensure minimal minimal disturbance disturbance to to the the soil soil surface, surface, litter litter removal removal was was carried carried out out from from outsideoutside the the plot plot boundary boundary and and precautionary precautionary measures measures were were taken taken to to not not step step into into the the plotplot area. area. The The dry dry weight weight of of litter litter removed removed (including (including leaf, leaf, twigs, twigs, fruits, fruits, and and seeds) seeds) was was ◦ 9.489.48 kg kg (oven (oven dried dried at at 60 60C °C for for 72 72 h). h). In In the the clearcutting clearcutting phase, phase, a a total tota ofl of 13 13 trees trees (species: (species: DeutziaDeutzia crenata crenata, Eurya, Eurya japonica japonica, Gamblea, Gamblea innovans innovans, Ilex, pedunculosaIlex pedunculosa, and ,Lyonia and Lyonia ovalifolia ovalifolia) with ) DBHwith ranging DBH ranging 0.8–3.5 0.8–3.5 cm as wellcm as well 10 small as 10 shrubs small wereshrubs removed were removed from plot from B. In plot plot B. A In (controlplot A plot),(control six plot), trees six (species: trees (species:E. japonica E. andjaponicaL. ovalifolia and L. )ovalifolia and small) and shrubs small were shrubs left were as theyleft were.as they Although were. Although having fewer having trees fewer than trees in plot than B, in one plot of B, the one trees of the (E. japonicatrees (E.) injaponica plot ) Ain was plot multi-stemmed A was multi-stemmed (nine stems), (nine resulting stems), in resulting a canopy in coverage a canopy that coverage was more that extensive was more thanextensive that of than a normal that of tree. a normal To minimise tree. To external minimise environmental external environmental influence, areas influence, adjacent areas to theadjacent plots were to the made plots to were be as made similar to as be possible as similar to thatas possible inside the to that plots. inside Areas the surrounding plots. Areas plot A (3 metres away from the top, left, and bottom boundary) were left forested. For plot surrounding plot A (3 metres away from the top, left, and bottom boundary) were left B, a 1-metre buffer from the perimeter (plot boundary) was given the same treatment (litter forested. For plot B, a 1-metre buffer from the perimeter (plot boundary) was given the removal and clearcutting) as inside the plot. Photographs of plot B in the NT, LRBC, and same treatment (litter removal and clearcutting) as inside the plot. Photographs of plot B AC phases are shown in Figure5. in the NT, LRBC, and AC phases are shown in Figure 5. At a nearby weather station (approximately 470 m westwards of the runoff plots), At a nearby weather station (approximately 470 m westwards of the runoff plots), rainfall data was recorded at 5-minute intervals by an ‘Ota Keiki OW-34-BP’ tipping-bucket rainfall data was recorded at 5-minute intervals by an ‘Ota Keiki OW-34-BP’ tipping- rain gauge (0.5 mm/tip) connected to a ‘Campbell Scientific CR10X’ datalogger. Data bucket rain gauge (0.5 mm/tip) connected to a ‘Campbell Scientific CR10X’ datalogger. collection, site observation, and maintenance were carried out in three phases: no treatment Data collection, site observation, and maintenance were carried out in three phases: no phase (NT) from May to October 2016, litter removed before clearcutting phase (LRBC) treatment phase (NT) from May to October 2016, litter removed before clearcutting phase from March 2017 to June 2018, and after clearcutting phase (AC) from September 2018 to July(LRBC) 2019. from March 2017 to June 2018, and after clearcutting phase (AC) from September 2018 to July 2019. 2.3. Data Processing and Analysis The main mode of analysis is comparing storm surface runoff between the NT, LRBC, and AC phases. For this, we considered storm events to be separate if there were at least 6 hours of rain-free period in between events—a common rule used in the region. In all analyses, runoff in plot B was normalised by runoff in plot A. Erroneous data and periods of equipment malfunction were excluded from analysis. In total, 116 runoff events were available for analysis—20 in the NT, 54 in the LRBC, and 42 in the AC phases, respectively. We explored the data in four different aspects: (i) overall runoff amount and duration, (ii) storm event surface runoff, (iii) the effects of antecedent precipitation on surface runoff, and (iv) rainfall threshold required for the initiation of surface runoff (amount of rain from the start of a rain event to the first recorded surface runoff). For comparison between the treatment phases, the variable of interest (surface runoff, rainfall threshold) and their Water 2021, 13, 1205 6 of 17
various influencing factors (treatment, average rainfall intensity, antecedent precipitation index) were fitted via the generalised linear model (GLM). The best-fit GLM was chosen via the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayes Factor in the software R v.4.0.3 (required Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 17 packages: glm2, devtools, flexplot). Differences between phases were assessed via the Mann–Whitney U test.
FigureFigure 5. 5. StateState of of plot plot B B in in (aa)) no no treatment treatment (NT) phase;phase; ((bb)) litterlitter removedremoved beforebefore clearcutting clearcutting (LRBC) (LRBC) phase; and (c) after clearcutting (AC) phase. phase; and (c) after clearcutting (AC) phase. 2.3. Data Processing and Analysis The main mode of analysis is comparing storm surface runoff between the NT, LRBC, and AC phases. For this, we considered storm events to be separate if there were at least 6 hours of rain-free period in between events—a common rule used in the region. In all analyses, runoff in plot B was normalised by runoff in plot A. Erroneous data and periods of equipment malfunction were excluded from analysis. In total, 116 runoff events were available for analysis—20 in the NT, 54 in the LRBC, and 42 in the AC phases, respectively.
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2.3.1. Storm Event Surface Runoff Before analysis, we ascertained the relationships between surface runoff (Q) and rainfall (P) as well as between surface runoff in plot B (QB) and surface runoff in plot A (QB). Strong positive relationships were found between QB and QA, especially in the NT phase (r2 = 0.98), which signify suitability for a paired-plot study. After establishing a baseline relationship and ensuring that there were no anomalies, the latter regression was carried forward to be used in the paired-plot comparison. Following this, mean rainfall intensity (Pi) was also tested for influence on runoff generation. However, it was not statistically significant (p > 0.05, r2 ≤ 0.1); thus, not included for further analysis. Because the data were non-normally distributed (Shapiro–Wilk, p < 0.05) and have unequal population variance (Levene, p < 0.05), QB vs. QA was provisionally test-fitted using the ‘glm2’ command (package: glm2) in R using several ‘family’ (gaussian, poisson, gamma) and ‘link’ (identity, log, inverse) functions. Both original and log-transformed data were tried. The ‘gamma-identity’ fit on original data was found to produce the best fit in the NT, LRBC, and AC phases, and was thus used. Differences in runoff between NT, LRBC, and AC were assessed via the Mann–Whitney U test using calculated treatment effects (Te). To calculate Te, the first step was to establish a calibration equation (using the earlier gamma-identity GLM) between plot B and plot A in the NT phase: NT NT Qobs B = a × Qobs A + b (1) NT NT where Qobs B and Qobs A are event surface runoff observed in the NT phase in plot B and A, respectively; and a and b are regression coefficients. After treatment, runoff in plot B in the LRBC and AC phases were estimated using Equations (2) and (3), respectively:
LRBC LRBC Qest B = a × Qobs A + b (2)
AC AC Qest B = a × Qobs A + b (3) LRBC AC where Qest B and Qest B are ‘estimated runoff’ in plot B in the LRBC and AC phases, LRBC AC respectively, and Qobs A and Qobs A are ‘observed runoff’ in plot A in the LRBC and AC phases, respectively. Treatment effects (Te) in LRBC (TeLRBC/NT) and AC (TeAC/NT) with reference to the NT phase were calculated as follows:
LRBC/NT LRBC LRBC Te = Qobs B − Qest B (4)
AC/NT AC AC Te = Qobs B − Qest B (5) In the same way, with reference to the LRBC phase, Te in AC (TeAC/LRBC) was calcu- lated by first establishing a calibration equation between plot B and plot A in the LRBC phase (Equation (6)); then, using the equation coefficients (c and d) to estimate surface runoff in AC (Equation (7)), and subtracting the estimated values from observed values (Equation (8)): LRBC LRBC Qobs B = c × Qobs A + d (6) AC AC Qest B = c × Qobs A + d (7) AC/LRBC AC AC Te = Qobs B − Qest B (8)
2.3.2. Effects of Antecedent Precipitation on Surface Runoff The first step was to assess the relationship between surface runoff and antecedent precipitation index (API), as well as to determine antecedent days with the highest influence. Several combinations of GLM family and link function were tried as with the earlier section. All equations were then inspected visually and compared based on AIC and Bayes Factor. Relationships were weak and monotonic instead of linear. API11 were found to produce the highest correlation and best fit (AIC: 450.05 via ‘gamma-log’). Water 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 17