Legacies of Repression: The Revival of Political Participation in the Shadow of Authoritarian Rule by Alanna Claire Van Antwerp B.A. in Linguistics, May 2003, University of Colorado M.A. in Linguistics, May 2003, University of Colorado M.A. in International Development Studies, May 2007, The George Washington University A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 18, 2014 Dissertation directed by Nathan Jude Brown Professor of Political Science and International Affairs The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that Alanna Claire Van Antwerp has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of March 19, 2014. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Legacies of Repression: The Revival of Political Participation in the Shadow of Authoritarian Rule Alanna Claire Van Antwerp Dissertation Research Committee: Nathan Jude Brown, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Dissertation Director Marc Lynch, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and of Media and Public Affairs, Committee Member Kimberly J. Morgan, Professor of Political Science, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2014 by Alanna Claire Van Antwerp All rights reserved iii Dedication To my parents, Frederick and Caroline Van Antwerp, who gave me everything. iv Acknowledgements This dissertation would not have been possible without the support, generosity, encouragement and advice of a great many people and institutions. For their generous financial support, I would like to thank the David Boren NSEP Graduate Fellowship, which provided me with the funding for 12 months of field research in Egypt (2012). The fellowship enabled me to boost my Modern Standard Arabic and immerse myself in Egyptian dialect before beginning my field interviews, both of which were essential my success. The Institute for Middle East Studies at the George Washington University generously awarded me the funds to conduct summer research in Tunisia for one month in 2013, as well as gave me an office during my last year of dissertation writing, which proved invaluable to my progress. The Project on Middle East Political Science also provided me with a generous Travel-Research- Engagement Grant, which allowed me to conduct pre-dissertation research in Cairo in October 2011. It goes without saying that none of these institutions are responsible or accountable for any of the ideas or errors in this dissertation. The George Washington University’s Department of Political Science has been a warm, collegial, stimulating environment free of competitiveness. Members of the Comparative Politics Workshop provided excellent help and feedback on earlier drafts of the theory, as did the members of the Institute for Middle East Studies’ dissertation working group. The Egyptian Revolutions Working Group has also been an exciting and engaging community and my analysis of Egyptian politics in 2011 benefited greatly from v the comments and suggestions given to me by this group of scholars, particularly Hesham Sallam, Elliott Colla, Mona Atiya, and Joshua Stacher. A great many individuals gave me their time, advice, patience, support and humor throughout the writing of this dissertation and my greatest debt is to the members of my committee. Nathan Brown is, with good reason, the kind of advisor for whom students would lie down in front of oncoming traffic. He has been an exemplary dissertation chair, co-author, mentor, joke-trader, caring friend, and true human being. He read countless drafts of every single piece of this dissertation, usually within a shockingly short turn- around period, and always helped to make my work better, sharper, clearer and more interesting. Whether over lunch in Cairo, coffee in Arlington, emergency panic sessions in his office, hundreds of emails, or phone calls from various locations, Nathan gave me the never-ending support, encouragement, and insight that I needed to bring this project to fruition. For all of these things, I will be eternally grateful. Second, Marc Lynch, like a heat-seeking missile, always honed in directly on the weak spots in my work, logic, and argument, illuminating them and allowing me to excise them. His “fuzzy bunny test” is something I will continue to use long after my dissertation. Marc has also created rich opportunities for doctoral students working on the Middle East through the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Institute for Middle East Studies at GW, both of which greatly enhanced my education and provided me within invaluable financial and intellectual support. Third, and certainly not the least, I am immensely grateful to Kimberly Morgan, whose intellect is akin to a blast furnace, both transformative and humbling. Kimberly reads and comments on manuscripts like no other, providing a level of fine-grained vi feedback that constantly improved my writing, ideas, and knowledge of the literature. I am also extremely grateful for Kimberly’s advice about fieldwork concerns and my career, as well as her continual support throughout my time in the program. Henry Hale and Adrienne LeBas were fantastic external readers for my dissertation. They both gave essential feedback and insight into the project’s strengths and weaknesses, reading earlier drafts of various parts of the argument, and have helped me to expand the theory, insights, and contributions beyond Egypt and the Middle East. I owe numerous thanks to a great many people in Egypt, all of whom made my fieldwork productive, rich and possible. First, I owe an enormous debt of gratitude to all of the Egyptians who, out of concern for their safety in post-2013 Egypt, I cannot name here. They opened their homes and offices to me and patiently answered all of my questions. Without their willingness to share with me, this research would never have been possible. Sarah Conner, Zoe Kosoff, and Naima Green helped orient me to Alexandria and introduced me to its delights. To Mohammed al-Borgi I owe my deep gratitude for his meticulous tutoring of my Arabic and to the friendship, humor and acceptance he gave me during what was a lonely, isolated time. During my first month in Cairo, Kurt Smolek and Susan Meyerson were extremely fun and generous hosts, helping to keep me sane through Lebanese food, evenings of Doctor Who and the Walking Dead, and much-appreciated Kentucky bourbon. Holger Albrecht lent me the use of his lovely apartment, a gift that transformed my stay in Cairo and for which I continue to be deeply grateful. Mariam Serag accompanied me on every single one of my Cairo interviews, helping me when I did not understand a word or phrase in Arabic, laughing heartily with vii me through many hot, dusty adventures, and voraciously eating koshari and shawarma with me nearly every day. Back home in Washington, D.C., Julia Macdonald was my Ghost Protocol comrade-in-arms throughout the doctoral program at GW. Julia was by my side during the course of our mutual trials and tribulations, from beginning to end. I am deeply thankful for her companionship through frantic late nights, exhausted mornings, moments of gut-wrenching anxiety, all the times when we were proud of ourselves, and all the times when we had just about had it. And finally, my family. I am forever grateful to Luz Torres, who years ago opened this life chapter by encouraging me to apply to doctoral programs in the first place. Among a myriad of gifts, her daily support while I was in Egypt helped me to maintain my optimism and positivity throughout what was a grueling time, sending care packages and even visiting and accompanying me on an exhausting, hot research blitz to Tanta and Mansoura. Her constant love, selflessness and laughter throughout this process fed me, making every day better, fuller, happier and complete. And to my parents, brother, and sister-in-law: Fred, Caroline, Will, and Mallory. The life opportunities given to me by these four opened up the world to me, gave me the tools that I needed to succeed, gifted me with curiosity and wonder, grounded me with a platform of love and raucous humor, and remained my steadfast support throughout every one of my successes, defeats and challenges. This dissertation is for you. viii Abstract of Dissertation Legacies of Repression: The Revival of Political Participation in the Shadow of Authoritarian Rule What shapes the dynamics of the revitalization of political participation after the collapse of a long-term authoritarian regime? While much attention has been paid to Communist successor parties in the post-Soviet space, a surprising lack of attention has been given to opposition successor parties and the fate of opposition movements more generally after a regime transition occurs. This dissertation explores how opposition groups that risked life and limb under the authoritarian regime transform — or fail to transform — themselves into political actors in the post-authoritarian era, honing in on two processes in particular: party formation and political mobilization. Rather than being highly contingent events, as many scholars of democratic transitions argue, both party formation and electoral mobilization after authoritarian collapse are outcomes rooted in the political opposition structure of the prior authoritarian regime. The way in which the regime structured the political opposition — who it co-opted, who it controlled, and who it repressed and excluded — shapes the organizational form of opposition groups, the ideas contested within the system, and the variation in resources possessed by different members of the political opposition. These factors in turn shape the processes of party formation and political mobilization at the point of regime transition. This dissertation utilizes both an in-depth, single case study alongside a structured, focused, cross-regional comparison.