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Democratic Transitions in Ideological States

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Mind Over Matter: Democratic Transitions In Ideological States A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Michael J. Koplow, JD Washington, DC October 9, 2013 Copyright 2013 by Michael J. Koplow All Rights Reserved ii MIND OVER MATTER: DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS IN IDEOLOGICAL STATES Michael J. Koplow, JD Thesis Advisor: Marc M. Howard, Ph.D. ABSTRACT In seeking to explain why and when democratic transitions occur or do not occur, political science has treated all types of states similarly without regard to a state’s ideological character despite ideology being a critical variable for a significant subset of states. Does political ideology matter when it comes to democratic transitions? What roles does political ideology play in hindering or altogether preventing successful transitions to democracy? This dissertation argues that ideological conflict over first-order political principles between authoritarian regimes and opposition groups acts as a structural constraint on democratic transitions, and that until the conflict over political ideology is resolved, states will not transition to democracy. Through typological theorizing, statistical analysis of ideological states in the second half of the 20th century, and case studies of Turkey and Tunisia, this dissertation demonstrates why ideological conflict prevents a successful transition process and process traces the manner in which ideological conflict between regimes and opposition groups presents a barrier to democratization and how this barrier is overcome. Since ideological regimes vet their political opponents on the basis of ideology, they are unwilling to open up the political system without guarantees from the opposition that the regime ideology will outlast their own rule. This dissertation argues that ideological regimes place the survival of their hegemonic ideology above their own survival in power, and once an ideological regime has been assured that its ideology will survive a transfer of power, transitions are allowed to proceed apace. By explaining why and iii how ideology can impact transitions, this dissertation enhances our understanding of political development and the motivations and interests of an important subset of authoritarian states. iv This dissertation would have not have been written without the help and advice of a number of people and institutions. Thanks to the Georgetown Government Department for providing a travel grant that allowed me to spend time researching in Turkey, and to the extremely helpful library staff at Boğaziçi University and the American Research Institute in Turkey Istanbul Center. Thanks to my colleagues David Buckley, Ty Groh, Yoni Morse, Hesham Sallam, Chrystie Swiney, and Sarah Yerkes, who all furnished helpful advice and ideas at one time or another during this process. Thanks to Marc Howard for being a great adviser and mentor, and combining the perfect amount of pressure and space to enable me to start and finish this project. Thanks as well to Andy Bennett, Dan Brumberg, and Steven Cook for listening to my early and unformulated thoughts and helping me get to the end point. My parents, Meyer and Ellen Koplow, have always been a source of inspiration and encouragement, and without them I would never have had the courage to start yet another graduate degree. Kira and Zach have simultaneously been by greatest sources of motivation and my greatest vehicles for procrastination, and hopefully they will one day read it and understand why their dad spent so much time going to campus rather than to an office. Finally, none of this would have been possible without Tovah. She has been an endless and superhuman source of support, patience, understanding, inspiration, and advice. She has shouldered the burden of keeping our family afloat, moved cities and switched jobs so that I could accumulate degrees, patiently waited while my research and writing dragged out, and has been the greatest wife anyone could ever hope to have. This dissertation is every bit as much Tovah’s as it is mine, and it is to her that it is dedicated. Many thanks, Michael J. Koplow v TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter I ........................................................................................................................... 8 Ideology’s Absence ........................................................................................................ 20 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 27 A Roadmap For Integrating Ideology ............................................................................ 29 Chapter II ....................................................................................................................... 36 Defining Ideology and Ideological States ...................................................................... 36 Is Democracy An Ideology? .......................................................................................... 39 A Typology of Ideologies .............................................................................................. 43 A Theory of Ideology as a Constraint on Transitions .................................................... 49 Testing Ideological Conflict’s Effect on Democracy .................................................... 56 Ideological Conflict and Failed Transitions ................................................................... 70 Connecting the Dots ....................................................................................................... 76 Chapter III ...................................................................................................................... 79 Ideology in the Late Ottoman Empire ........................................................................... 83 Kemalism in Action ....................................................................................................... 86 The First Use of Kemalism as a Litmus Test: The TCF ................................................ 93 The Second Use of Kemalism as a Litmus Test: The Free Party .................................. 99 Turkey’s Transition ...................................................................................................... 103 The Democrat Party and Ideological Alignment ......................................................... 106 vi The Democrat Party In Power ...................................................................................... 112 The First Signs of an Ideological Challenge ................................................................ 116 The Effects of Ideological Conflict Post-Transition .................................................... 120 Ideology’s Lingering Effects ....................................................................................... 124 Chapter IV .................................................................................................................... 127 Western Influences on Tunisia and Bourguiba ............................................................ 129 Bourguibism As An Ideology ...................................................................................... 133 The Secularization and Westernization of Tunisia ...................................................... 136 Ideological Conflict and Internecine Struggles ............................................................ 141 Ben Ali’s Flirtation With Democracy .......................................................................... 151 Emerging Transition or Retrenching Authoritarianism? ............................................. 158 Democracy Aborted ..................................................................................................... 169 Ideology Rears Its Head ............................................................................................... 172 The Impact of Ideological Conflict on a Failed Transition .......................................... 180 Chapter V ..................................................................................................................... 183 The Aftermath of Ben Ali’s Crackdown ...................................................................... 183 Ben Ali’s Fall and the Beginning of the Arab Spring .................................................. 187 The Tunisian Military’s Embrace of Bourguibism ...................................................... 192 Ideological Threat Perception and the Absence of Islamists ....................................... 195 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 201 vii Fitting Ideological Conflict Into The Picture ............................................................... 201 Democracy Promotion and the Arab Spring ................................................................ 203 Areas for Further Research .......................................................................................... 207 A Methodological Thought .......................................................................................... 209 Summing Up ...............................................................................................................
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