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Russia in Global Affairs July RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 7•No. 3•JULY – SEPTEMBER•2009 Contents No Lull in Sight Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Transforming Russia An Exhausted Resource Olga Kryshtanovskaya 8 The Russian state itself became actually the only source for the modern- ization efforts. This is the major problem of modernization projects in authoritarian states: the government has to face social problems alone. Even with the tacit support from the public, it is difficult to address large- scale tasks in the absence of active civil society. Is There a Demand for Modernization in Russia? Mikhail Afanasiev 22 The consumer adaptive individualism and mutual mistrust within elites, together with the specifics of “sovereign democracy,” are a major obstacle to a normal political withdrawal from the crisis through the establishment of effective parties or factions within the ruling party. Russia’s Modernization: At Another Fork in the Road Dmitry Badovsky 34 Solution to the problems of power and the destiny of modernization has been put off until the 2012 election, when the final choice of the parame- ters of future development could be determined by either Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin or Dmitry Medvedev’s continued presidency. Contents How to Overcome the National Crisis Victor Kremenyuk 48 The theory and history of international relations abounds in the misconception that the bigger a country, the greater its freedom of action. In reality, it is the other way around. Resources for Development Energy Markets in a Turbulent Zone Tatyana Mitrova 58 The anti-crisis strategy is universal for all sectors of the economy – the main emphasis is placed on reducing costs. This is particularly important for the Russian oil and gas industry. The short respite given by the ruble devaluation is drawing to a close. Approaching the Far Away Alexander Chepurin 68 The presence of an influential and consolidated Russian community abroad meets Russia’s national interests. A community interwoven and integrated in the public and political life of the country where it lives – rather than an assimilated or marginalized one – could make up a full- fledged part of the global Russian world. Changing the Security Model Russia and the U.S.: Reconfiguration, Not Resetting 82 It would make sense for Moscow to offer its own package of ideas to Wash- ington regarding the improvement of relations, and this package should be bigger than the one proposed by President Obama. The two countries must take a course towards a “big deal” based on the analysis of vital interests of the sides and their priority ranking. The parties should pledge respect for each other’s interests in the areas where these interests are truly vital, while making concessions on secondary issues. Rethinking Security in “Greater Europe” Fyodor Lukyanov 94 The proposal to build a new European security architecture, which Rus- sian President Dmitry Medvedev put forward in Berlin in June 2008 and which he followed up in November in Evian, was Moscow’s first attempt in 20 years to formulate a coherent foreign-policy vision. Towards Legal Universalism Boris Mezhuyev 103 The very idea of reviving the intergovernmental dialogue on security in Europe reflects the legal universalism of Russian politics that has been characteristic of this country throughout almost all of its history since Peter the Great and that is typical of Medvedev’s political style. Labyrinths of the Arctic Policy Oleg Alexandrov 110 The creation of a regional security system, such as a Baltic Union, would help to consolidate Russia’s positions in Northern Europe and in the Arc- tic, as this system could be a prototype for a new, co-operative security sys- tem in Europe. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER• 2009 Contents Solutions – Local or Global? The Return of Turkey Tigran Torosyan 120 The Georgian-Russian war became a momentous event as it caused other countries to revise Russia’s role in world politics, the practice of conflict management, and other factors. The war has produced a new situation, which requires a comprehensive analysis of the roles of other regional actors, above all Turkey. The Fundamental Conflict Yevgeny Primakov 130 If Israel annexes the Arab territories it occupied in 1967, it will soon cease to be a Jewish state as the ratio between the Jewish and Arab populations in it will inevitably change in favor of the latter due to its birth rates. The Afghan Problem in the Regional Context Ivan Safranchuk 141 Russia by no means is interested in a defeat of the international forces in Afghanistan, as it would create new security problems. But Moscow does not see prospects for a military victory. And if these prospects appeared, they would give a green light to “Greater Central Asia” infrastructure pro- jects that would be economically disadvantageous for Russia. The Post-Crisis World: Searching for a New Framework Vladislav Inozemtsev 150 This century will be neither “American” nor “North Atlantic” – but nei- ther the Americans nor the Europeans or the Russians are interested in see- ing the 21st century becoming “Asian” and especially “Chinese.” Today as never before all of them need unity. The Living Past How Stalin and Molotov Wrote Messages to Churchill Vladimir Pechatnov 162 The available archival documents (especially those from the Stalin Fund at Russia’s State Archive of Social and Political History) make it possible to reconstruct the way Stalin’s letters to the British prime minister were written and see genuine motives and specific mind patterns of the great dictator. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER• 2009 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Helmut KOHL (Germany) Valery OKULOV Interros Holding Company (Finland) Andrei KOKOSHIN (in a personal capacity) Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir OVCHINSKY Industrial Investors Ltd. Alexei ARBATOV Vyacheslav KOPIEV Vladimir POZNER Ruben VARDANYAN Alexander AVDEYEV Mikhail KOZHOKIN Sergei PRIKHODKO Troika-Dialog Group (in a personal capacity) (in a personal capacity) Yaroslav KUZMINOV Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV Lev BELOUSOV Boris KUZYK Sistema JSFC (Deputy Chairman) Vladimir RYZHKOV Sergei LAVROV Igor ZYUZIN C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) (in a personal capacity) Horst TELTSCHIK (Germany) Mechel JSC Carl BILDT (Sweden) Vladimir LUKIN (in a personal capacity) Anatoly TORKUNOV Fyodor LUKYANOV Vladimir GRIGORYEV (Editor-in-Chief) Lord William WALLACE (in a personal capacity) (Great Britain) Vladimir MAU James HOGE (U.S.A) Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY Thierry de MONTBRIAL Igor IVANOV (France) Igor YURGENS Karl KAISER (Germany) Vyacheslav NIKONOV Alexander ZHUKOV Irina KHAKAMADA (Deputy Chairman) (in a personal capacity) Sergei ZVEREV PUBLISHED BY BOARD OF ADVISORS FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH FOUNDATION Anatoly ADAMISHIN Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY Olga BUTORINA Leonid GRIGORIEV Anatoly VISHNEVSKY Yuri DUBININ Alexander LOMANOV INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS RUSSIAN EDITION IS PUBLISHED •Newspapers: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Vremya Novostey WITH PARTICIPATION OF •News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti •Radio Station Echo of Moscow FOREIGN AFFAIRS LEGAL CONSULTANCY KLISHIN & PARTNERS Editorial Office: Attorneys at Law 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Moscow 103873, Russia Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov tel.: +7 (495) 980-7353 Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev fax: +7 (495) 937-7611 Deputies Editor-in-Chief e-mail: [email protected] Executive Director Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition http://www.globalaffairs.ru Irina Palekhova of the Editorial Board Yelena Blinnikova Copy Editors Copy Editors Alexander Kuzyakov Robert Mulcahy Computer Makeup Alexandra Kobzeva Rinat Yakubov Natalia Zablotskite Registered with Proof-Reader THE MINISTRY Assistant to Editor-in-Chief Circulation Arnold Kun OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Valeria Chistyakova Andrei Yevdokimov FOR PRESS, TV AND RADIO tel.: 7 (495) 937-7611 Web Editor BROADCASTING AND MEANS [email protected] OF MASS COMMUNICATION Pavel Zhitnyuk PI No. 77-12900 [email protected] 3 June 2002 Printed by Kaluzhskaya Tipografia Standartov Order No. 1599. Circulation: 1,000 copies The views of the authors do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of the Editors. The responsibility for the authenticity and accuracy of the facts in the published articles rests with the authors. © Foreign Policy Research Foundation 2009 All rights reserved. Reproduction in part or whole is allowed only with the explicit authorization of the pub- lisher. No Lull in Sight Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief There has been no traditional summer- pants. Meanwhile, the number of real time lull in Russian politics this year. or potential hotbeds of conflicts arising The breath of the crisis is felt every- along the continent’s perimeter has where. In Russia, it forces the govern- been persistently increasing. ment to take preventive measures – Boris Mezhuyev and the author of many analysts predict a hot autumn this article analyze the proposal Russian prone with social problems. But in the President Dmitry Medvedev made more international arena, new opportunities than a year ago for building a new are opening up, which Moscow does European security architecture. Oleg not want to miss. Alexandrov discusses the situation in the The main event of the summer was Arctic, which is now turning into an the Moscow visit of Barack Obama, area of rivalry among adjacent nations. who officially opened an era of a The expert believes that creation of a “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations. regional security system in Northern Almost all commentators agree that the Europe could serve as a model for a Moscow negotiations were successful, pan-European security system. although admittedly the Russian and Tigran Torosyan focuses on the role U.S. presidents avoided thorny prob- of Turkey as a rising regional power. lems. A report prepared by a team of Ankara has an increasing impact on experts led by Sergei Karaganov and developments in the South Caucasus, published in this issue focuses on ways Southern Europe and the Middle East.
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