Whither Space Power? Forging a Strategy for the New Century

The Fairchild Papers are monograph-length essays of value to the Air Force. The series is named in honor of Muir S. Fairchild, the first commander of Air University and the university’s conceptual father. General Fairchild was part visionary, part keen taskmaster, and “Air Force to the core.” His legacy is one of confidence about the future of the Air Force and the central role of Air University in that future. AIR UNIVERSITY LIBRARY Whither Space Power? Forging a Strategy for the New Century SIMON P. WORDEN Brigadier General, USAF JOHN E. SHAW Major, USAF Fairchild Paper Air University Press Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama 36112-6615 September 2002 Air University Library Cataloging Data Worden, Simon P. Whither space power? Forging a strategy for the new century / Simon P. Worden, John E. Shaw. p. cm. (Fairchild paper, ISSN 1528-2325) Includes bibliographical references. Contents: What has gone before -- Scenarios for the twenty-first century -- Mathematical and physical realities -- Options for the new century -- Threats, limitations, constraints -- The boundless future. ISBN 1-58566-111-2 1. Astronautics and civilization. 2. Astronautics, Military. 3. Military doctrine -- Unites States. 4. United States. Air Force. 5. Space warfare. 6. Space sciences. I. Shaw, John E. II. Title. III. Series. 358.8/0973--dc21 Disclaimer Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. Cleared for public re- lease: distribution unlimited. This Fairchild Paper and others in the series are available elec- tronically at the AU Press Web site http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil and the Air University Research Web site http://research.maxwell. af.mil. ii Contents Chapter Page DISCLAIMER . ii FOREWORD . vii ABOUT THE AUTHORS . ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . xi ABSTRACT . xiii INTRODUCTION . xv Notes . xviii 1 WHAT HAS GONE BEFORE . 1 The Four Space Sectors . 3 The Great 50-Year Space War . 13 Space Power at a Crossroads . 17 Notes . 20 2 SCENARIOS FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY . 23 The Rogue State . 23 The Battle for Global Utilities . 46 The Pan-Asian Federation Strikes Back . 54 Seizing the Solar System . 65 Notes . 71 3 MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL REALITIES . 73 Space Environment/Orbits . 73 The Economics of Space Travel . 78 Weapon Effectiveness and Space . 81 Range of Interest . 84 Notes . 87 iii Chapter Page 4 OPTIONS FOR THE NEW CENTURY . 89 Communications . 90 Global Positioning System . 92 More Utilities on the Way . 94 Other Space-Based Resources . 97 Protection and Denial . 99 Seizing the Solar System . 110 Notes . 116 5 THREATS, LIMITATIONS, CONSTRAINTS . 117 Natural Barriers . 117 “Icebergs” in Space . 121 International Treaties and Policies . 130 Notes . 133 6 THE BOUNDLESS FUTURE . 135 BIBLIOGRAPHY . 141 INDEX . 143 Illustrations Figure 1 Ready for a Trip to the Moon . 2 2 Notional Diagram of Proposed SDI System Architecture . 18 3 Military Effectiveness . 83 4 Sinking of the Titanic, April 1912 . 122 Photo Aerial Recovery of Film from Discoverer Spacecraft . 7 iv Photo Page Space Shuttle Columbia . 16 Artist’s Concept of X-33 and Reusable Launch Vehicle . 20 Space Shuttle Main Engine Being Prepared for Test Firing . 76 Barringer Crater . 85 Advanced Communication Technology Satellite . 90 American Satellite Company (ASC) Communication Satellite . 93 Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) . 95 South Pole Region of Moon . 98 Farside View of Earth’s Moon . 105 Artist’s Impression of Wind and the Sun-Earth Environment . 107 Earth Station Antenna at Johnson Space Center . 110 X-15 with B-52 Mothership Flyover . 112 The Moon, Solar Corona, and Venus, as Seen by Clementine . 115 Sun – Solar Flare – Corona and Large Solar Eruption . 118 Solar Flare . 120 Nucleus of Comet Halley, taken by the Giotto Spacecraft . 124 v Photo Page Asteroid: An “Iceberg” in Space . 125 Computer-Generated View of Earth as Seen from an Asteroid . 127 Table 1 Weapon Effectiveness . 82 vi Foreword From the dawn of military history, military strategists have wrestled with an enduring challenge—the challenge to define and prepare effectively for the next war. History is littered with the tragic tales of those armies and nations that failed to meet this challenge and paid the price—on the battlefield, on the seas, or in the skies. One war-fighting medium remains to be ex- ploited, and the challenge facing our nation’s military strategists today is the same one that has come down through the ages—to define and prepare for the next inevitable battle—this time, a battle in and for space. In this book, General Worden and Major Shaw present the building blocks for an all-encompassing strategy and doctrine for space power in the twenty-first century. Their compelling inter- pretation of the influence of space power over the past 60 years (chap. 1) is mirrored by a captivating vision of the role space power will play in the next 60 (chap. 2). The pictures they paint of potential asymmetric warfare no longer seem as distant as they did prior to 11 September 2001. As we have already tragi- cally witnessed, the adversaries of tomorrow will not necessarily confront us directly, but will certainly challenge our centers of power—and more and more of those centers lie in space. The succeeding chapters complete the prescription for space power strategy, defining space as the place where the future in- frastructure of civilization will reside, and making the case for an aggressive national security policy in space. The authors’ final admonition should not go unheeded: We procrastinate on a strategy for space power at our own risk. If we do not seize the opportunity to control the ultimate high ground, someone else will, and we will then forfeit our role of global leadership in space. JOHN L. PIOTROWSKI General, US Air Force (retired) vii About the Authors Brigadier General Simon P. Worden Brig Gen Simon P. Worden, born 21 October 1949, holds a BS in physics and astronomy from the University of Michigan and a PhD in astronomy from the University of Arizona. He is currently the deputy director for operations, J-3, Headquarters US Space Command, Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado. Through- out the 1980s and early 1990s, he served in every phase of de- velopment, international negotiations, and implementation of the Strategic Defense Initiative—a primary component in end- ing the Cold War. General Worden twice served in the execu- tive office of the president. As the staff officer for initiatives in the National Space Council of the first Bush administration, he spearheaded efforts to revitalize our civil space exploration and earth monitoring programs, and was the architect of the “faster, cheaper, better” approach now adopted throughout the US space program. General Worden commanded the 50th Space Wing, which en- compasses more than 60 Department of Defense satellites and more than 6,000 people at 23 worldwide locations. He then served as deputy director for requirements at Headquarters Air Force Space Command. Prior to assuming his current position, he served as deputy director for operational requirements, then as deputy director for command and control, at Headquarters Air Force. General Worden has authored or co-authored over 150 scientific technical papers in astrophysics, space sciences, and strategic studies. He was also scientific co-investigator for two NASA space science missions. Major John E. Shaw Maj John E. Shaw, born 17 March 1968, holds a BS in as- tronautical engineering from the United States Air Force Acad- emy (USAFA), an MS in aeronautics and astronautics from the University of Washington, and an MA in organizational man- agement from George Washington University. He is a distin- guished graduate of USAFA. ix Major Shaw is currently assigned to Headquarters USAF at the Pentagon. His previous assignments have included tours in Air Force Space Command, the National Reconnaissance Office, and United States Air Forces in Europe, as well as internships in the Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Space and in SAF/AQ, Space and Nuclear Deterrence Directorate. Major Shaw has authored several papers on aerospace issues, including “The Influence of Space Power upon History,” which won the 1998 USAF/Royal Air Force “Two Air Forces” award for writing in history. x Acknowledgments We would like to acknowledge the contributions of many military space colleagues, each of whom greatly shaped this work. These are the officers who will forge the United States’ twenty-first century space-oriented national security strategy. We also want to take this opportunity to acknowledge and honor Lieutenant Commander David L. Williams and our other comrades in arms who perished in the Pentagon on 11 Sep- tember 2001. They were among the first casualties in the wars of the twenty-first century—and it is the objective of this work to ensure the United States is prepared to fight and win those wars decisively. We will not forget their service and sacrifice. Finally, we’d like to particularly thank our ultimate mentor, Gen Bernard A. Schriever, who has done so much to move our country forward in using space to guarantee our freedom and security. To you, Sir, we dedicate this work and commit our very best effort to move your vision forward. SIMON P. WORDEN Brigadier General, USAF JOHN E. SHAW Major, USAF xi Abstract The influence of space power pervades almost every sphere and level

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