Oil Producers Eye Asia As Western Demand Falters

Oil Producers Eye Asia As

Western Demand Falters

SPECIAL PDF REPORT SEPTEMBER 2011

An oil rig lights up Cape Town harbour as the sun sets, August 6, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Hutchings

 Oil price volatility a concern for Asia

 Indian Oil bars Vitol from tenders-sources

 Two reasons why Asia's still thirsty for crude: Clyde Russell

 Iran imports 4-5 cargoes of gasoline per month-sources

 Litasco 2011 revenue to rise 10 pct -CEO

 Iran restores fuel oil export vols from Oct COMMODITIESOIL PRODUCERS SHIVER EYE ASIA AFTER AS WESTERNU.S. CREDIT DEMAND DOWNGRADE FALTERS SEPTEMBER AUGUST 20112011 Oil price volatility a concern for Asia SINGAPORE, Sept 8 (Reuters) - il traders have been the only beneficiaries from this year's sharp swings in energy prices, but even they have been caught off guard at times, falling prey to geopolitics and wider financial market risk appetite swings. That sums up reflections at Singapore's Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) this week, where oil traders, O company executives and business leaders gathered to discuss an increasingly turbulent and volatile trading environment. Three years on from the deepest recession since the Great Depression, oil producers and trading firms continue to look to Asia as the saviour for energy markets, while Europe and the U.S. struggle to sustain an economic recovery. This tension has made oil markets the most volatile since 2009, complicating trading strategies and giving trading houses an overdose of the price fluctuations they normally thrive on. "It's too much volatility and sometimes it's not easy to develop trading strategies," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager with To- kyo-based Mitsubishi Corp on the sidelines of the conference. "It's more difficult to foresee where good plays will emerge." The International Energy Agency, adviser to industrialised nations on energy policy, last month said a global economic slowdown may stifle oil demand growth next year, warning that tightening supplies could spur more oil price volatility. As with most financial markets, over the past few months oil has been especially vulnerable to risk-on and risk-off waves that buffet commodities, equities, currencies and bonds, as confidence that a global recession can be avoided alternatively sprawls and wanes, sometimes in a matter of hours. That was the case when credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. from AAA in early August. In the second trading session after the downgrade, Asia took an unusual pricing lead and in a matter of less than two hours knocked $5 a barrel off Brent futures, which fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since February. Then, European and U.S. traders returned the market to positive territory, before closing marginally lower. Despite measures initiated by China and India to reign in inflation, which may lead to their economies cooling down, most companies and investors are betting that the world's fastest growing nations will continue to drive oil demand.

2 COMMODITIESOIL PRODUCERS SHIVER EYE ASIA AFTER AS WESTERNU.S. CREDIT DEMAND DOWNGRADE FALTERS SEPTEMBER AUGUST 20112011 WINNERS AND LOSERS How traders perceive volatility also depends on their positions in the run-up to sharp price moves. An example is the weak mood that prevailed in the Middle East crude market in early August, before an unexpected swing that took values to three- month highs. Those who had stocked up on cargoes benefitted from re-selling at much higher prices in the same month. The volatility has not been restricted to crude. Naphtha, a gauge of economic activity because of its use as a feedstock in the petrochemicals industry, has also been subject to violent swings this year. "Traders thrive on volatility to make money," a trader said. "The current price volatility is good for naphtha traders as they can play on the volumes they supply to buyers." While trading houses benefit from some volatility, oil-producing companies prefer a stable price environment which allows them to better plan investment and output in the long term, managing directors from the world's largest oil companies said on the sideline of the conference. "Oil companies need a certain degree of certitude," an executive with an oil major said. "But volatility can be good for trading companies, so it really depends what side of the table you are on." But outside the oil industry, there are few who benefit from excessive swings in prices, and this year has shown how the world economy can be at the mercy of geopolitical events, such as Libya's civil war. "The geopolitical situation has added a lot of volatility to the market," Richard Gorry, director at energy consultancy JBC Asia, said on the sidelines of APPEC. "There are 3 million barrels of oil at risk from countries like Algeria, Tunisia, Syria, Sudan, Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen. But the bigger risk is that the unrest in these countries spreads to bigger producers like Saudi Arabia." Gorry estimates that a further loss of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil output would send Brent to $160 a barrel, slashing demand in East Asia by 600,000 bpd, and North America by 700,000 bpd. A 4 million bpd loss would lead to $260 a barrel, he said. Brent crude futures fell by as much as $16 a barrel in two days in May and as much as $12 in three days a month later. Implied volaility on U.S. crude futures rose to 63 in early August, the highest since April 2009.

Indian Oil bars Vitol from tenders-sources SINGAPORE, Sept 8 (Reuters) - ndian Oil Corp has barred Switzerland-based Vitol, the world's largest oil trading firm, from participating in its tenders and other state-run refiners may follow suit, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. IOC, the country's biggest refiner, put Vitol S.A. Geneva and Vitol Asia Pte. Ltd Singapore on a list of companies barred I from doing business with it from Sept. 3 as the trader withdrew and modified a binding offer made in a crude import tender, the sources said. Officials at Indian Oil declined to comment. Vitol, responding to an email, said it never comments on commercial relation- ships. IOC has informed other state-run refiners about the move and has asked them to explore the possibility of initiating similar action, the sources said. Indian Oil was at one point the country's sole crude importer and used to buy oil on behalf of other companies. State-run firms still work closely on matters such as international trade and retail fuel prices. The ban may allow Vitol's competitors Glencore and Trafigura, which have significant Indian operations and have invested heavily to build their businesses there, to expand in Asia's third-largest economy. A lot would depend on whether other state- run companies follow IOC's lead, traders said. "Certainly this now opens the door for the likes of Glencore and Trafigura to take over from Vitol's position in the tenders," a Singapore-based trader said. "Now the question is will other refiners impose the same action on Vitol? Potentially this could be a major blow to Vitol's trading ops." Other state-refiners would consult the oil ministry on suspending Vitol from participating in their tenders, the same sources said. IMPACT "IOC is like the godfather here, no one messes with it," an India-based trader said. "On the products side, Vitol is a market leader, it picks up a lot of cargoes from India, so if its bids are not there, others would definitely get an advantage."

3 COMMODITIESOIL PRODUCERS SHIVER EYE ASIA AFTER AS WESTERNU.S. CREDIT DEMAND DOWNGRADE FALTERS SEPTEMBER AUGUST 20112011 The impact of this ban for Vitol would be particularly serious for West African grades, traders said. India imports about 80 percent of its crude requirement. In the fiscal year ending March 31, it imported about 3.3 million barrels of oil. "It's going to be a huge impact on Vitol because they would lose a big outlet for West African crudes," a Singapore trader said. "India might see higher prices on their tenders." Indian Oil imports about 25 percent of its crude requirement through spot tenders, with the rest purchased through annual term deals. Vitol is not the first trading firm to fall foul of Indian state-run refiners. The second-biggest, Bharat Petroleum Corp , barred Glencore from participating in its tenders in January but within three months lifted the ban following a settlement. India is the world's fourth-largest oil importer. State refiners control nearly two-thirds of the country's 4.17 million bpd refining capacity, which includes Reliance Industries' export-focused 580,000 bpd plant. IOC directly owns 1.08 million bpd of crude processing capacity through its eight refineries, while subsidiary Chennai Petro- leum Corp owns 230,000 bpd. Indian Oil floats tenders almost every week seeking sweet barrels.

Mideast trader Gulf Petrochem seeks share of booming Asia market By Humeyra Pamuk SINGAPORE, Sept 8 (Reuters) - nited Arab Emirates-based trader Gulf Petrochem is looking to expand into the Asian market by setting up a trading and bunkering desk in Singapore before the end of the year, the company's chief executive told Reuters. Strong oil demand from Asia has prompted Middle Eastern oil majors as well as traders to expand operations in a U market that is rapidly growing in contrast to the economic gloom in Europe and the United States. "We will start fuel oil and distillates trading as well as bunkering out of Singapore," Sanjeev Sisaudia said late on Wednesday on the sidelines of Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore. "At the moment we have six people in Singapore mainly dealing with base oil. We're looking to hire 3-4 people until the end of the year," Sisaudia said, adding that the company will further expand its team in 2012. As sign of its ambitions in Asia, Gulf Petrochem, which is not a regular participant in Asian fuel oil spot tenders, won a semi- term fuel oil tender from India in early August. "That was a strategic move," said Gulf Petrochem trader Kalrav Dixit, who was instrumental in securing the deal. "The idea was to position ourselves in the market." An expansion of the draft at headquarters, the Hamriyah Free Zone on the west coast of the UAE, will allow the company to handle much larger vessels and bigger flows, Sisaudia said. "Until now, the bottleneck for us was the 4.5 metre-long draft. This will now go up to 12 metres," he said. As the company bets on handling larger volumes, it is also expanding its oil storage facilities at the free-zone, where it currently has 60,000 cubic meters of oil storage for clean and dirty products. "To meet the increasing demand, we are adding 15,000 cubic meters," Sisaudia said. Capturing more oil storage space in the Middle East is a priority for oil traders, who are pouring millions of dollars to build new tanks that will give them more flexibil- ity in supplying their biggest customers in Asia. Leasing out these tanks to oil companies or other traders is also a major source of revenue. All of Gulf Petrochem's tanks at Hamriyah are currently full, Sisaudia said, with some of them allocated to the company's us- age and the rest leased out to other traders. FUTURE IN OIL STORAGE With oil traders rushing to grab storage space, ports in the Middle East Gulf also are set to expand. The UAE's Fujairah port, the world's top bunkering hub after Singapore and Rotterdam, is planning to more than double its oil storage capacity to 7 million cubic meters in the next two to three years. Gulf Petrochem is among the investors in Fujairah. The company will spend $134 million to build 412,000 cubic meters of oil storage, or 17 tanks, due to become operational by April-May 2012, Sisaudia said. Nine tanks have already been built and the company will allocate 25 to 30 percent of the storage capacity for its own use and will lease out the rest. "We're already in discussion with potential parties to lease," Sisaudia said, declining to name any possible tenants. All the major trading houses and oil companies have rented tanks in Fujairah. "Many players are trying to come to the Middle East market but the storage tanks are just not there," he said. Some traders in the Gulf Mideast say the oil storage flurry could lead to an oversupply in the future, but Gulf Petrochem plans to increase its Fujairah capacity to 1.2 million cubic meters in the next five years.

4 COMMODITIESOIL PRODUCERS SHIVER EYE ASIA AFTER AS WESTERNU.S. CREDIT DEMAND DOWNGRADE FALTERS SEPTEMBER AUGUST 20112011 It is also planning to build 120,000 cubic meters of oil storage in Malaysia's Port Klang and 300,000 cubic meters of space in India's Pipavav port, located on the west coast, for a total cost of around $130 million. These capacities will be up and running by April 2013 at the latest, Sisaudia said. In India, the company is looking to increase its space to 1 million cubic meters in the next five years. Both clean and dirty products will be stored in all the new storage facilities. "Wherever we go from here (in terms of trading and storage), it will be just about grabbing more and more. We're in a fast developing phase," Sisaudia said.

India MRPL's fuel exports to rise sharply from FY14 By Nidhi Verma and Florence Tan SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - ndian refiner Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd may boost middle distillate exports by about 80 percent and halt fuel oil exports from 2013/14 once it completes expanding capacity, its managing director said. The state-run refiner is raising the capacity of its refinery in southern India by 27 percent to 300,000 bpd to process I cheaper heavy-sour grades with high acid content to lift profitability and improve yield, U. K. Basu told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (AAPEC) on Wednesday. The company will commission a new crude unit in January-February and gradually start up other units, including a diesel hy- drotreater, fluid catalytic cracker, delayed coker by June-July, Basu said. "In early 2013, it will operate at 100 percent capacity," he said. In the fiscal year ending March 2011, MRPL exported about 760,000 tonnes of diesel and about 910,000 tonnes of jet/ kerosene, he said. The firm's total export of jet kero and diesel may go up by 1.3 million tonnes in 2013/2014. MRPL, which currently exports 1-2 fuel oil cargoes of 80,000 tonnes each per month, mostly into East Asia, and is India's largest exporter, may halt shipments from that year. "There will not be any fuel oil exports...We will be exporting fuel oil only if the margins are better on it," he said.

Gas prices are displayed at a Circle K gas station in Phoenix, Arizona August 10, 2011. REUTERS/Joshua Lott

MRPL's fuel oil, typically of 380-centistoke (cst) specification, is popular among the Singapore-based traders due to its low- density properties. It is also easy to blend for the marine fuels market in the city-state, the world's largest.

5 COMMODITIESOIL PRODUCERS SHIVER EYE ASIA AFTER AS WESTERNU.S. CREDIT DEMAND DOWNGRADE FALTERS SEPTEMBER AUGUST 20112011 The refiner will see a "dramatic change" in its crude sourcing from May next year after developing a better import facility called single point mooring, he said. "We will be buying crude in VLCCs (very large crude carriers)," he said. After the expansion, the refinery would be able to process 40 percent heavy crude versus 25 percent now. It will also be able to use newer grades of crude to maximise earnings from processing each barrel into fuels. "That is of prime importance, to open up to new crudes...There are new crude coming up in the west African countries and in Latin America." Initially, the new capacity will process sweet grades, and for that MRPL may float tenders seeking three 700,000 barrels parcel for December and January lifting, he said. MRPL has floated two tenders seeking sweet barrels for September. "We will get less supply of Mumbai High crude in October and November as we took higher volumes in last few months. From December we will get our normal volumes," Basu said. It buys 36,000 barrels per day of Mumbai High crude.

Iran imports 4-5 cargoes of gasoline per month-sources By Humeyra Pamuk SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - ran has been importing four to five cargoes of gasoline per month, with most of it supplied by China as the Islamic Repub- lic finds ways to get around the U.S.-led sanctions, three industry sources familiar with the matter said. "For sure Iranians are importing gasoline from Asia, China namely," one source said. "Suppliers sell to traders on a free- I on-board (FOB) basis and they know that the cargo will end up in Iran," he added. The purchases were on a barter basis, a second source said. "Chinese are buying crude and sending back gasoline," he added. But, Ali Reza Zeighami, managing director of the National Iranian Refining and Oil Products Distribution Company, denied buying any gasoline through barter. "Iran does not trade any of its oil for buying gasoline from foreign companies," he told the semi-official Mehr news agency. "From the start of the year Iran has not bought any gasoline from any international countries," he said. Iran's own refineries were producing an average of 50 million litres per day, he said. Iran's fuel trade has been hampered by West's sanctions as oil companies stop supplying fuel to the Islamic Republic, fearing U.S.-led sanctions aimed Tehran's disputed nuclear programme, which it says is purely for energy purposes. Washington wants to isolate Tehran over its nuclear programme, which it believes Iran is using to develop weapons and although there is no international ban against buying Iranian crude, sanctions make financing difficult. An official from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) had earlier said Iran has been importing gasoline, declining to con- firm the amounts or the barter system. Iran has trouble receiving billions of dollars of oil payments from its major customers such as India and South Korea as sanctions put a restrain on financial transactions. After months of a payment row with India over a hefty $5 billion dollar oil bill, Iran said on Sunday that India has paid all of its oil debt. South Korea's accumulating debt, around $3.8 billion in August, could hit $5 billion by the end of the year, government sources said. But China has been buying more. The volume of crude imports in the first seven months of 2011 rose almost half on the year, according to China's customs data. At nearly 560,000 barrels per day, the flow was about a quarter of Iran's crude exports, worth some $20 billion a year. China signed up to the United Nations sanctions when they took full effect in mid-2010, but refused to support measures that targeted Iran's oil and gas sector. "These ships are not directly going to Bandar Abbas," the first source said. "They're making several stops before arriving at their final destination," he said. Iran's imports of nearly 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline in March and April had also involved ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. The state-owned company has imported gasoline recently but it has also been exporting, mostly to Iraq, the NIOC official said. He did not provide amounts but said the grade was around 90 RON. Iran has boosted domestic output and curbed domestic demand by reducing subsidies and raising pump prices, but the trade patterns imply it is not yet self-sufficient and the gasoline it produces has been below the European standard of 95 RON.

COMMODITIESOIL PRODUCERS SHIVER EYE ASIA AFTER AS WESTERNU.S. CREDIT DEMAND DOWNGRADE FALTERS SEPTEMBER AUGUST 20112011 Litasco '11 rev to rise 10 pct due to oil sales-CEO SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - itasco, the trading arm of Russian Lukoil, expects its revenue this year to rise 10 percent compared to 2010 due to high oil sales to new markets in Africa and Central America, CEO Sergey Chaplygin said on Wednesday. "Margins have changed versus last year, but overall we have pretty good results," Chaplygin told reporters on the side- L lines of an annual oil conference in Singapore. "We have developed new markets, and this year we are more active in new markets including Africa, new projects and business in Central America as well." Litasco's crude, oil products and petrochemical production accounts for half of its trading volume while the remainder is third- party trading which will probably be about 120 million tonnes this year, he said. Chaplygin also said he expects West Kurna II field to start crude production in 2013. "We will work on the marketing crude oil, which will come from the Western Kurna II project," he said, adding that Litasco has a good relationship with Asian refiners. But he said it was still too early to determine how much crude will be exported from the field to Asia. It was also too soon to forecast whether the supply will be sold on term or spot basis. Lukoil will probably join a growing group of companies to trade ESPO crude, he added, but did not elaborate on how it plans to get the supply.

Iran restores fuel oil export vols from Oct-loading By Yaw Yan Chong SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - ran's October fuel oil exports are expected to return to normal levels, with at least five low-density cargoes, totalling about 400,000 tonnes, scheduled for delivery into East Asia, traders said on Tuesday. The National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) has returned to full allocations of its straight-run 280-centistoke (cst) cargoes, for Oc- I tober-loading from Bandar Mahshahr to all its term buyers in both East Asia and the Middle East. The restoration of the Iranian exports, totalling 6-7 parcels of 80,000 tonnes each and up from 2-3 lots for each of the past two months, will come as a relief to the fuel oil market, which has struggled with tight supplies through August and Septem- ber, the traders said. Oil major Shell and Singapore trader Kuo Oil have secured two lots each of the cargoes that are headed for East Asia, while PetroChina has the other parcel.

A view of the Rosneft Achinsk oil refinery plant, one of the biggest Siberian fuel suppliers, near the town of Achinsk, some 188 km (117 miles) west of Krasnoyarsk, April 28, 2011. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin 7

An Iranian man pumps fuel into his car at a petrol station in northwestern Tehran. REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl 8

India MRPL buys extra 600,000 bbl Saudi oil for Oct-Sources SINGAPORE, Sept 5 (Reuters) - ndia's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd bought an extra cargo of Saudi Arabia's Arab Super Light for October, three sources familiar with the deal said on Monday. The 600,000-barrel cargo is on top of the company's total purchase of about 20,000-22,000 barrels per day (bpd) from I the Kingdom. The cargo will help fill the refiner's requirement for sweet barrels after the company skipped awarding a tender for October cargoes last month. MRPL also failed to buy any sweet grades in its latest tender that closed on Friday, sources said. "The participation was poor and offers were not attractive," said one of the sources with knowledge of the process, referring to Friday's tender. MRPL operates a 236,400 barrels per day (bpd) refinery in the coastal city of Mangalore in southern India. Supplies of West African grades have been hit as Shell declared a force majeure on Nigerian Bonny Light crude from August to October following a pipeline incident. This, coupled with strong demand from the United States and Europe, has strengthened October spot differentials for West African crude, with Nigerian Qua Iboe trading at a four-month high premium. MRPL has previously bought extra barrels from Saudi in July, as the world's top oil exporter unilaterally decided to raise supplies after OPEC talks collapsed in June. Saudi Arabia may increase official selling prices (OSPs) of October crude for Asian clients, as refiners across the continent process more, aiming to benefit from attractive margins for products from fuel oil to jet fuel.

A view of the Rosneft Achinsk oil refinery plant near Achinsk. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin 9

COMMODITIESGOLDGOLD:OIL PRODUCERS REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVERBATTERED EYETURNAVERSION ON ASIAJAPAN AFTERTO BYASASIA BANISH DEBT SHARPESTWESTERNU.S. TO CREDIT DOWNGRADEOFFSET CORRECTION DEMANDLOSS DOWNGRADE FALTERING SINCE DESPITE FALTERSFEARS? MAY WESTERN CORRECTION DEMAND FEARS SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER AUGUST AUGUSTAUGUST 2011 2011 20112011 Socar Trading expects revenue to double in 2011 By Francis Kan SINGAPORE, Sept 7 (Reuters) - he trading arm of Azeri state oil firm Socar expects revenue to double from last year to as much as $38 billion in 2011 due to higher crude prices and as sales rise, the company's chief executive said on Tuesday. The surge has been driven partly by strong demand following the loss of Libya's 1.6 million barrels of light sweet crude T production earlier this year due to a conflict in the North African country, Chief Executive and President Valery Golovushkin told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Asia Pacfic Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore. "We are expecting something between $35 billion and $38 billion in revenue this year. In the U.S., a lot of refiners are used to light sweet crude, so that has helped us increase sales," Golovushkin said. "Our competitors are Libyan and Nigerian crude." To further expand business, Socar Trading is looking to buy the downstream assets of Geneva-based Addax Petroleum, Golovushkin said later. "Only just in August, they released some fresh material about their assets, we're looking at it," Golovushkin told reporters on the sidelines of the APPEC. In July, sources told Reuters that Addax was looking for buyers for its African oil unit, including its Geneva-based trading unit and storage assets in Africa. "They have some good assets in Africa," he said. "They have some terminals, some retail operations." Graphic on commodity prices 2008/2010/11: ( http://link.reuters.com/vam88r ) The key product Socar Trading sells is Azeri light crude, sourced from its parent company, a grade similar to that produced in Libya. CRUDE EXPORTS The company has also increased the volume it trades through annual term deals globally to around 75 percent, up from 60 percent last year. Around 40 percent of its activity comes from third-party volumes, Golovushkin said. Socar Trading expects crude sales to Asia to rise to 7-9 million barrels a month by the end of 2011, up from 5-6 million barrels, after it secured storage in South Korea last month. The company signed a deal to lease underground storage with a capacity of 5 million barrels from Korea National Oil Corpora- tion. It also has floating storage in the form of a supertanker anchored in Malaysian waters and is looking to lease storage in Singapore. "With the new storage, our sales in Asia will increase. The first tanker has been loaded and is on the way," said Golovushkin. The first phase of a 650,000 cubic metre oil storage terminal the company is building in the United Arab Emirates port of Fu- jairah is expected to be operational in November, he said. OIL PRODUCTS TRADE Socar Trading expanded its trading of oil products in Asia to include gas oil, jet fuel and naphtha, on top of fuel oil. The Singa- pore office will have a staff strength of 15 by year-end, including 7 traders - 2 for crude and the rest for products. The target is to trade around 4 million tonnes of fuels a year, with fuel oil taking the biggest share, he said. "We will source fuel oil from all over, India and the Persian Gulf. It will all be third-party trading, not system barrels," he said. Socar Trading is also looking to buy refineries in Europe, although their search has been made harder by poor refining margins in that region. "There are still some negotiations going on, but the progress is not easy," Golovushkin said. "Refining is not the best business right now."

Petrobras boosts crude exports to Asia as output grows By Alejandro Barbajosa SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - razil's Petrobras has raised crude exports to Asia to 38 percent of the country's total this year, boosting share in the world's fastest-growing energy market with grades most favoured by refiners from India to China. Shipments would increase from 34 percent in 2010, Guilherme Franca, global crude trading manager at the state- B controlled oil company, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Petroleum Con- ference (APPEC). Total crude exports from Brazil, South America's second-largest producer, may rise to about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year from 494,000 bpd in 2010, Petrobras said.

A worker stands near the oil refinery Camilo Cienfuegos in Cienfuegos. REUTERS/Claudia Daut

COMMODITIESGOLDGOLD:OIL PRODUCERS REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVERBATTERED EYETURNAVERSION ON ASIAJAPAN AFTERTO BYASASIA BANISH DEBT SHARPESTWESTERNU.S. TO CREDIT DOWNGRADEOFFSET CORRECTION DEMANDLOSS DOWNGRADE FALTERING SINCE DESPITE FALTERSFEARS? MAY WESTERN CORRECTION DEMAND FEARS SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER AUGUST AUGUSTAUGUST 2011 20112011 Indian Oil says needs to raise gasoline prices By Nidhi Verma and Florence Tan SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - tate-run Indian Oil Corp said local gasoline prices need to be raised as revenue losses from selling the fuel at government controlled rates have widen more than seven-fold this month, head of finance P.K. Goyal said on Tuesday. Revenue losses on gasoline sales now stand at about three rupees (6 U.S. cents) compared to about 0.41 rupees a S litre in the fortnight ending Aug. 31 due to an increase in Singapore spot prices of the fuel, he said. "There is scope to raise petrol prices," Goyal told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Petroleum Confer- ence (APPEC). "In the last fortnight (ending Aug. 31), our revenue loss was 41 paise a litre. It has now risen to about three rupees." Indian state-run firms last raised gasoline prices in mid-May by a record. The increase of 5 rupees a litre made the fuel costlier than in the world's biggest oil consumer United States, hurting local consumption. Slowing car sales in Asia's third-biggest economy has also curbed sales. The government last year gave state-run firms permission to fix gasoline prices on their own, while retaining control over diesel, kerosene and cooking gas to protect the poor and tame stubbornly high inflation. Still, these companies need a nod from the government to increase gasoline prices. Graphic on commodity prices in 2008/2010/11: ( http://link.reuters.com/vam88r ) State-run retailers get cash subsidy from the government and discount on crude and products purchased from state-run upstream firms to partly offset the losses. REFINERY EXPANSION Indian Oil is the nation's biggest refiner controlling about a third of the 4.17 million barrels per day capacity. It is building a 300,000 bpd refinery in Paradip in the eastern state of Orissa. The company aims to spend 120-130 billion rupees next fiscal year on new projects, a large part of which will go toward the completion of the Paradip plant. It is expected to spend 148 billion rupees this fiscal year. Pardip would start by June 2013 and will operate at full capacity in 2014, Goyal said. The plant will help the company meet the total demand for fuel from its own refineries. Currently, the volume of fuel it sells is higher than its refining capacity, forcing the company to buy some products from private firms such as Essar Oil and Reliance Industries Ltd. . "Presently, we are taking 5 million tonnes (annually) of fuel from private refiners," Goyal said. "After commissioning of Pardip we will stop that....we will be exporting some gasoline." For Pardip, IOC may look at buying crude from Venezuela, Mexico and Colombia, he said. Indian Oil processes 46-47 percent of heavy crude, while the remaining is light. The company meets 75 percent of its requirement through term deals, he said. Last year, IOC exported about 4.5 million tonnes of fuel, and shipments could fall to 3.5-4 million tonnes this fiscal year as naphtha consumption at its Panipat cracker may rise. FUEL EXPORTS "In 2012-13, exports would be about 3 million tonnes as our naphtha cracker would stabilise and operate at full capacity," he said, adding local demand for the fuel is also increasing as the economy expands. IOC's total borrowings are at about 710 billion rupees and this could rise to about 900 billion rupees by December if it did not get cash compensation from the government. The company's board has approved raising the borrowing limit to 1.1 trillion rupees from 800 billion rupees and hopes to get shareholder approval on this by October, Goyal said. It may also raise debt, which may be a mix of local and foreign loans, in quarter ending March.

Mercuria to post fast Asian growth in 2012 By Florence Tan SINGAPORE, Sept 2 (Reuters) - ercuria Energy Group Ltd, one of the world's largest independent energy traders, expects Asia to become one of the major contributors to its revenue next year when new businesses start and as existing ones grow, senior company officials said. M Asia could account for more than 20 percent of the company's overall revenue in 2012, up from 15 percent in 2008, moving its share closer to other regions such as Europe and the Americas, they said.

COMMODITIESGOLDGOLD:OIL PRODUCERS REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVERBATTERED EYETURNAVERSION ON ASIAJAPAN AFTERTO BYASASIA BANISH DEBT SHARPESTWESTERNU.S. TO CREDIT DOWNGRADEOFFSET CORRECTION DEMANDLOSS DOWNGRADE FALTERING SINCE DESPITE FALTERSFEARS? MAY WESTERN CORRECTION DEMAND FEARS SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER AUGUSTAUGUST 2011 20112011 "Asia as a market through our Sin- gapore regional hub is absolutely key for us to grow," Mercuria's global Chief Financial Officer Guil- laume Vermersch told Reuters ahead of APPEC, a major oil trader gathering in Singapore next week. "We have expanded the spectrum of physical commodities that we now trade," he said. Mercuria now trades in coal, alternative energy, carbon emissions and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in addition to crude and oil products. The Geneva-based company expects to have a turnover of around $70 billion this year and was spending up to $400 million a year on upstream assets, including oil and coal reserves. In Asia, Mercuria's trade volume jumped more than six times between 2007 and 2010 while its turnover increased seven times in the past four years, said Asian CFO Jennifer Chan. It was the second- fastest growing company in Singa- pore on turnover last year, according to Singapore-based business information firm DP Services. Mercuria bought its first coal mine in Indonesia last year, which will start production at the end of 2011 or early 2012, Vermersch said. It also plans to double storage for crude or fuel oil at an existing facility in eastern China to 1 million cubic metres. Construc- tion on the second phase is under way and will be completed by mid-2012, he added. Last month, Mercuria formed a joint venture with Hong-Kong listed China Datang Corp. Renewable Power Co. , focusing on renewable energy and carbon credits. As part of its growth, Mercuria is in talks for more such joint ventures to acquire assets and work with partners in the trading of oil, coal, alternative energy and carbon emissions in Asia and the Middle East, Vermersch said, although he declined to elaborate. "Definitely for us in Asia, 2012-2013 will be strong years because of all the investment and diversification into the other products," Chan said. "We can already see projected new flows that are coming through." Gasoline and naphtha trading desks which started last year will continue to grow while the company is developing its middle distillates business, she said. Mercuria also expects growth from its fuel oil unit in Asia. "India and China are still growing emerging countries for us and big markets for coal and oil," Chan said. GRAPHICS for oil swaps trade volumes: ( http://link.reuters.com/byf33s ) REDUCING RISKS Besides offering new products, Mercuria is also working closely with banks in Asia to secure credit lines after the debt crisis in the euro zone brought back memories of the 2008 financial meltdown, when banks and the trading community tightened credit on fears of exposure to counterparty risks. "We learnt our lesson from the 2008 crisis where interestingly enough, we didn't put as top priority the risk that we were taking on the banks financing our activities," Vermersch said. The company has more than tripled its credit lines with Asian banks to $3 billion from 2009, Vermersch said. "This is now putting us in the situation where we somehow are less dependent on the regions or geographical zones that are experiencing problems," Vermersch said.

COLUMN-Two reasons why Asia's still thirsty for crude: Clyde Russell --Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.-- By Clyde Russell SINGAPORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - wo seemingly unrelated bits of news on Monday show why there is hope that Asia's oil demand remains robust even as the global economic outlook darkens. Firstly, Saudi Aramco saw fit to raise the premiums it will charge refiners in Asia for crude supplies for October, a sign T the world's biggest oil exporter isn't too worried about slowing demand. And secondly, China made a major revision to its July crude import figures, saying it actually imported 6.3 percent more than earlier reported, as some Russian pipeline imports weren't counted.

An attendant lifts a petrol nozzle at a petrol pump in the northeastern Indian city of Siliguri . REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri 14

COMMODITIESGOLDGOLD:OIL PRODUCERS REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVERBATTERED EYETURNAVERSION ON ASIAJAPAN AFTERTO BYASASIA BANISH DEBT SHARPESTWESTERNU.S. TO CREDIT DOWNGRADEOFFSET CORRECTION DEMANDLOSS DOWNGRADE FALTERING SINCE DESPITE FALTERSFEARS? MAY WESTERN CORRECTION DEMAND FEARS SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER AUGUSTAUGUST 2011 201201120111 While these two factors aren't enough evidence to proclaim that all is rosy in Asia, they are a sign of the growing disconnect between Asia's energy markets and those in recession-threatened Europe and the United States. The Saudi decision to raise the premium it charges for crude for October reverses what it did for cargoes for September. The premium for the main Arab Light grade was increased 90 cents to $1.65 a barrel over the regional benchmark Oman/ Dubai. This was above the top end of traders' expectations, with a Reuters poll ahead of the announcement showing that an increase of between 15 and 80 cents was expected. This outweighed the prior month's 60 cents a barrel cut for September cargoes, when there was concern over the strength of demand in Asia, a region that accounts for more than half of Saudi Arabia's exports. What the Saudi decision to raise the premiums for October shows is that any concern over the strength of Asian demand was temporary. Graphic of Saudi Aramco crude prices: ( http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/DFI_20110509105122.jpg ) It was interesting that they did cut the premiums for cargoes to the United States, with Arab Light dropping 30 cents a barrel to a premium of 20 cents over the Argus Sour Crude Index. However, this likely reflects that U.S. demand in October is generally seasonally weaker, as well as the lingering after-effect of the release of strategic stockpiles by the International Energy Agency. Another factor that shows the Saudis may be correct in thinking that Asian oil demand remains solid is the revision to Chinese crude imports. China imported 1.23 million tonnes more oil in July than initially reported, taking the total to 20.66 million tonnes (4.87 million barrels a day), according to an official at the General Administration of Customs. While an increase of about 291,000 barrels a day doesn't sound like much, in this case it amounts to the difference between saying China's oil imports were disappointing and saying they were actually pretty good. Concern over the strength of China's crude imports reached fever-pitch in June, when they slumped to the lowest in eight months. An expected recovery didn't really materialise in July, with the imports reaching the lowest in a year on a daily basis when the initial data was released Aug. 10. But we now know this wasn't actually the case, and imports rebounded in July with a 4.9 percent gain over those in June. Given that the bullish case for oil is now almost entirely dependent on Asian demand growth, any signs that China remains a strong importer will add to the case that the crude prices are still biased higher.

COLUMN-China may save commodities from equities' fate: Clyde Russell --Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.-- By Clyde Russell SINGAPORE, Sept 5 (Reuters) - rowsing bank and media commentaries gives the impression that equities bore the brunt of the market rout last month, but it turns out oil and copper, the key commodities for economic growth, did just as badly. The volatility in August was said to reflect the uncertainty of the global economic outlook, and price declines showed B that investors were basically writing off growth in the developed world for this year and fretting about renewed recession. New York crude dropped 7.2 percent in August, while copper slipped 5.7 percent, making them as bad as, or worse than, the 5.7 percent decline in the U.S. equity benchmark S&P 500 Index. And it's not just an August story. Crude is down about 25 percent from its high this year in April, while copper is about 11.3 percent lower than its February peak. The S&P 500 has dropped about 14 percent since its April high. Of course, oil and copper aren't the only commodities open to investors, but they are probably the two best indicators for economic growth. Corn has defied the rest of the commodity slump, gaining 13.8 percent in Chicago in August, because of deteriorating crop forecasts. And, of course, gold is continuing to shine, up 12.1 percent in August and 35 percent this year. But in some ways, gold is now the anti-commodity as a bet on the yellow metal gaining is really a bet that everything else is stuffed. Graphic of New York against S&P 500: ( http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/AS/1/CR_20110509143216.jpg ) Graphic of Shanghai copper versus London: ( http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/AS/1/CR_20110509151852.jpg ) What has been marked about commodities is that in contrast to their equities counterparts, many analysts in the field remain relatively bullish. The case for commodity gains now appears to rest on two less-than-solid pillars: ongoing demand from China and no recession in the United States and Europe. The Chinese pillar faces some stern tests of strength this week, with the release of August import and export data on Satur- day. This appears to be shaping up as the last straw for those still hopeful that Chinese demand will drive price gains. If oil and copper imports don't impress, this could break the back of the commodity bulls. So what would be impressive numbers? Looking at oil, the July numbers showed China's crude imports hit a one-year low on a daily basis of 4.58 million barrels a day for a month total of 19.43 million tonnes. It would take a reading of closer to 21 million tonnes for August to convince investors that oil demand remains strong in the world's second-largest user of the fuel. Given that the oil price has been declining in recent months, the chances are that imports will have risen in August, as analysis shows the Chinese tend to buy more in the months after the price drops. For copper, imports reached a six-month high in July, gaining 9.5 percent from the prior month.

Volatility, econ uncertainty in focus at APPEC meet By Seng Li Peng SINGAPORE, Aug 31 (Reuters) - year ago, when traders and oil investors gathered for the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore, they lamented the lack of volatility. The focus this year will again be volatility -- how excessive it has been, and the uncertainty it has brought. Worries A about energy demand, against the backdrop of a slowdown in developed economies and attempts by emerging nations such as China and India to cool their economies, will also dominate. "We started the year with a low-volatility type of landscape and moved into the year with implied volatility that is reflecting the nervousness of the market," said Guillaume Vermersch, chief financial office at Mercuria, one of the world's largest independent energy traders. "Volatility may mean a source of opportunity for sure, but it is also bringing risk." Brent crude futures fell by as much as $16 a barrel in two days in May and as much as $12 in three days a month later.

Pertamina's Cilacap refinery complex is seen in Central Java province. REUTERS/Stringer 17

COMMODITIESGOLDGOLD:OIL PRODUCERS REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVERBATTERED EYETURNAVERSION ON ASIAJAPAN AFTERTO BYASASIA BANISH DEBT SHARPESTWESTERNU.S. TO CREDIT DOWNGRADEOFFSET CORRECTION DEMANDLOSS DOWNGRADE FALTERING SINCE DESPITE FALTERSFEARS? MAY WESTERN CORRECTION DEMAND FEARS SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER AUGUSTAUGUST 2011 201201120111 Implied volaility on U.S. crude futures rose to 63 in early August, the highest since April 2009. Graphic on Commodity prices in 2008/2010/11: ( http://link.reuters.com/vam88r ) Graphic on oil consumption by region: ( http://r.reuters.com/gyb89r ) A range of factors triggered this year's price swings. A regime changing social unrest swept through North Africa and the Mid- dle East, engulfing OPEC-member Libya and disrupting exports of close to 1.4 million barrels a day. That was followed by an earthquake in Japan, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, which turned out to be the world's most expensive natural disaster. In June came the release of emergency oil stocks coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), followed by the downgrade of the United States credit rating. Brent's trading range was about $27 in 2010, between $67.87 a barrel in February and $95.20 at the end of the year. In 2011, the range has widened to almost $35, between $92.37 at the start of the year and $127.02 by mid-April. "The mood is definitely different to last year," Marko Luburic, project director of Socar Trading S.A. said, referring to trader sentiment this year. "We are seeing the market as more uncertain ... I believe that the mood amongst the others is to tread carefully and try to be more cautious until we see a more stable direction in the commodities markets." CONFIDENCE IN ASIA A possible return to recession in the United States and worries about a sovereign debt crisis in Europe have prompted oil producing group OPEC and U.S. government agency the Energy Information Administration to revise down their oil demand growth estimates. "The recent economic uncertainty adds to the gloomy outlook," said Bjorn Hojgaard, managing director of Thome Ship Man- agement. "Take the volatility and market psychology out of the equation and what you have is repricing of risks in the face of a higher probability of slower global growth." Despite measures initiated by China and India to reign in inflation, which may lead to their economies cooling down, most companies and investors are betting that the world's fastest growing nations will continue to drive oil demand. Based on this optimism, Asia's commodities business is likely to remain largely insulated from looming fears of yet another global financial crisis, although new projects might face difficulties in getting financing. Banks and oil trading houses have said it is business as usual in the market -- from moving ahead with big-ticket infrastructure projects to maintaining the same credit requirements for derivatives trading and trade-finance. Growing demand for fuels in Asia has helped refiners earn healthy profits from processing crude oil into fuels and expectations that consumption will continue to rise in coming years, amid the global uncertainty, will keep the buzz on in APPEC this year. "So far this year, refining margins were reasonably good. As a result, we are not seeing too much cut back in spending," said a Singapore-based distillate trader. "It will be wine and dine as usual during APPEC."

POLL-Global oil demand growth seen overstated in 2012 By Antonita Devotta and Ratul Ray Chaudhuri BANGALORE, Sept 6 (Reuters) - fficial forecasters are overestimating the pace of oil demand growth for 2012, according to a new Reuters survey that underscores the deepening uncertainty facing oil markets over the next year. While the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency expect global fuel consumption to rise by nearly 2 O percent next year, a half-dozen other analysts are looking at a rate closer to 1.5 percent, or lower, a Reuters poll shows. That gap will become pivotal for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which may yet feel compelled to pump less oil to maintain prices at around $100 a barrel, a level now widely seen as the group's de facto goal. For 2011, analysts and official-sector forecasters are more broadly in agreement after an accumulation of weak U.S. economic data over the last one month, underscored last week by the worst jobs report in nearly a year. Next year, however, is proving trickier as analysts weigh up prospects for a double-dip recession against the possibility of further monetary stimulus that may revive growth. The Energy Information Administration will release revised forecasts on Wednesday, followed by OPEC's report on Monday, Sept. 12, and the IEA next Tuesday. "Demand growth has been decelerating this year, and the official agencies monitoring the oil market have not been able to adjust their demand projections quickly enough," said Citigroup analyst Edward Morse.

Expansion in Asia's commodities sector SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - sia's commodities business has yet to feel any significant impact from the economic crisis that has already spread through the U.S. and Europe. While banks and companies told Reuters that ongoing expansion plans and projects are likely to continue as sched- A uled, new initiatives may have a harder time attracting financing. Here is a sample of infrastructure projects, acquisitions and business expansions that are taking place in the region. CITIGROUP Citigroup , which shrank its commodities activities after a 2008 bailout, is expanding its energy business across the globe again as it bets on a commodities boom, its global head of energy said in June. Stephen Trauber, who joined the bank in 2010 from UBS , said it had recently added around 50 bankers to its energy business, while also increasing capital allocations to its commodities segment, including trading. In Asia, Citi started expanding its commodities trading team aggressively last year by hiring several A-list traders, including veteran oil trader Rob Biro from rival Goldman Sachs to be its global head for oil last year and another senior trader this year. It has drawn record volumes for its hedging services by leveraging its widespread presence in Asia, where it has branches in almost every major city.

Labourers work on a refinery in Suining, Sichuan province. REUTERS/Stringer 20

COMMODITIESGOLDGOLD:OIL PRODUCERS REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVERBATTERED EYETURNAVERSION ON ASIAJAPAN AFTERTO BYASASIA BANISH DEBT SHARPESTWESTERNU.S. TO CREDIT DOWNGRADEOFFSET CORRECTION DEMANDLOSS DOWNGRADE FALTERING SINCE DESPITE FALTERSFEARS? MAY WESTERN CORRECTION DEMAND FEARS SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER AUGUSTAUGUST 2011 201201120111 CNOOC LNG TERMINAL China gave final approval to CNOOC Group's 2.0 million tonne-per-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) project on the southern island province of Hainan in July. The project won final approval from the National Development and Reform Commission on July 7, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said on its website (www.sasac.gov.cn). The first phase of the Hainan LNG terminal is expected to go onstream in 2014 and reach the designed capacity of receiving 2.0 million tonnes of the super-cooled gas per year in 2016, it said. In connection with the project, Hainan will build China's largest LNG storage and transferring centre, it added. CNOOC holds a 65 percent stake in the project, while Hainan Develop- ment Holdings Ltd has the remainder. CNOOC is the parent of Hong Kong- and New York-listed CNOOC Ltd . GMR ENERGY's GEMS ACQUISITION GMR Energy Ltd, a unit of India's GMR Infrastructure , has entered into a pact to acquire a 30 percent stake in Indonesia's PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk or GEMS, for $450-$550 million in cash, joining the line of Indian firms buying coal assets across the globe to seek fuel security. GEMS is a Sinar Mas Group company, GMR Infrastructure said in a statement to the stock ex- change on Aug. 12. As part of the deal, which is expected to close in calendar year 2011, GMR Energy Ltd has entered into an off-take agreement with Golden Energy, a unit of Dian Swastatika Sentosa , to buy coal over the next 25 years starting Jan 1, 2012. JURONG AROMATICS The construction of a $2.4 billion aromatics complex on Singapore's Jurong Island kicks off this month, with a groundbreaking ceremony slated for Aug. 26. The project involves the development of a condensate splitter and aromatics facility producing 1.5 million tonnes of aromatics and 2.5 million tonnes of transport fuels per year, Jurong Aromatics Corp has said. The much-delayed project, which is now expected to start operations in 2014, was held back due to difficulties in securing bank funding in 2009 due to the global credit crunch. BRIGHTOIL PETROLEUM'S EXPANSION Hong Kong-listed Brightoil Petroleum is planning to spend up to $3 billion on upstream oil and gas assets this year, as the firm moves to cement its position as an integrated energy conglomerate. Chairman Raymond Sit said in an interview in July the firm was also aiming to become one of the world's leading bunker suppliers within the next two to three years. The firm, with a market capitalisation of $3 billion, is the top bunker fuel supplier in China's Pearl River Delta. Its operations include bunkering, oil storage, marine transportation and its upstream businesses. In January, Brightoil signed a $4 billion strategic cooperation agreement with China Development Bank to finance its expansion drive.

The sunset is seen behind Isla refinery in Willemstad on the island of Curacao. REUTERS/Jorge Silva 21

SINGAPOREGOLDCOMMODITIESGOLD:OIL PRODUCERS REBOUNDSHITSHOVERS WILL RECORD RISKINTERNATIONAL SHIVERBATTEREDNEAR EYEAVERSION ON HIGH RECORDS ASIAJAPAN AFTER BYABOVEAS BANISH DEBT SHARPESTENERGYWESTERNU.S. ON $1,622/OZ CREDIT DOWNGRADEU.S. CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL DEBT DEMANDLOSS DOWNGRADE WOESSINCE DESPITE FALTERSFEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS SEPTEMBER NOVEMBER AUGUSTAUGUST AUGUST JULY 2010 20112011 EDITORIAL: THOMSON REUTERS COMMODITIES NEWS BRIEFS & PUBLICATIONS: Clarence Fernandez ( Senior Sub Editor, Commodities & Energy ) +65 6870 3861, [email protected] NEWSLETTERS:

Richard Mably (Global Editor, Commodities & Energy)  Inside Commodities +44-207-542-6280, [email protected]  Inside Agriculture  Inside Oil Veronica Brown (Editor, Commodities and Energy, EMEA)  Inside Oil – (Americas) +44-20-7542-8065, [email protected]  Inside Metals  Inside Dry Freight Jonathan Leff (Editor, Commodities & Energy, Americas)  Biofuels & Renewables Weekly +1-646-223-6068, [email protected]  Freight Monthly

 India Agriculture Monthly Sambit Mohanty (Editor in Charge, Commodities & Energy, Asia), +65-6870-3084, [email protected]  Oil Swaps Forward Curve Monthly  Trading Carbon

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