THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED How will a post-Brexit UK become a ‘Global Britain’? THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED How will a post-Brexit UK become a ‘Global Britain’?

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

misaligned with US President Joe Biden on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this Staff members 2016 Brexit referendum: what kind of nation Executive Summary take down the This month, following the deepest review a number of key issues and also faces tricky month launched a long-awaited integrated United Kingdom’s does the UK want to be as it moves on from of the UK’s foreign posture since the end post-Brexit relations with EU neighbors. international relations strategy, following flag from outside nearly half a century of membership of the the European of the Cold War, Prime Minister Boris This creates a headache at a time one of the deepest reviews of the UK’s foreign Parliament building Brussels-based club. Johnson launched a long-awaited, integrated when Johnson wants to recalibrate UK in Brussels on Brexit Johnson favors the UK becoming a posture since the end of the Cold War1. Day, January 31, international relations strategy. international policy in every part of the This important new strategy has received 2020. AFP buccaneering nation that will double The new strategy seeks to answer one of globe, and when the nation faces massive global attention. The UK’s defense and aid down with countries outside of Europe the fundamental questions that remains challenges, from Russia’s stridency budgets are among the biggest in the world, in the 2020s, from Australia to Argentina, unresolved since the 2016 Brexit referendum to the rise of China. as is its diplomatic network and its economy. Canada to China. One manifestation of this — what kind of country does the UK want to One critical question is to what extent As a result, the country’s international is the UK’s formal application in January to be as it moves on from its EU membership. the UK should remain a European-aligned influence remains significant2. join the Comprehensive and Progressive Johnson favors the UK becoming a economy. Many Brexiteers argue that Its future foreign policy is therefore not only Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a buccaneering nation that will double-down diverging, significantly, will boost growth a key issue for England, Scotland, Wales and trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, with countries outside of Europe. However, by developing stronger links with key non- Northern Ireland. It also matters to the rest of Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New the referendum showed that the people EU industrialized nations and emerging the world because if the nation’s role on the Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam5. who voted to exit the EU hold diverse, and markets. Take, for example, the Gulf world stage is reduced, it will be less able to However, the Brexit referendum showed sometimes divergent, views. Some Leave Cooperation Council states, which are a key bolster international security and prosperity that the people who voted to exit the EU voters, for instance, focused on the costs of UK target for developing deeper relations. at a time when both are uncertain in the expressed diverse, and sometimes divergent, EU membership, including the UK’s financial Some post-Brexit divergence is inevitable midst of the coronavirus crisis and the post- views. Some Leave voters, for instance, contributions to the budget of Brussels, in as the economies of the UK and EU evolve. pandemic world to come. focused on the costs of EU membership, the hope that the money could be redirected However, the UK’s ability to leverage this, in In a previous generation, former Foreign including the UK’s financial contributions toward domestic policy ends. the short term at least, can be overplayed, as Secretary Douglas Hurd famously stated that to the budget of Brussels, in the hope that While Johnson is putting his prime even some Brexiteers acknowledge. the UK had been able to “punch above its the money could be redirected toward One critical ministerial power behind his “Global Despite the historic change that Brexit weight” in the postwar era3 despite no longer domestic policy ends. Britain” vision, and the upside of brings, it is therefore far from sure that question is to being a great power. That statement might This pressure for the UK to retrench opportunities this could bring, he faces Johnson will be able to deliver fully on his what extent still be true today but is under increasing internationally is given extra force by the significant challenges in the post-Brexit Global Britain vision. the UK should scrutiny as some critics suggest the nation country’s strained finances, post-pandemic. international landscape. Moreover, almost two years into his volatile remain a risks fading into foreign policy irrelevance4. As a result of this budgetary challenge, last The two pillars of UK foreign policy in premiership, the window of opportunity to European- The new strategy seeks to address this issue fall the UK government temporarily cut the the postwar period — its US and European act on his agenda might be closing fast as the aligned head-on and answer one of the fundamental nation’s commitment to international aid alliances — are now in flux. Johnson is countdown on his term in power continues. economy questions that remains unresolved since the THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED from 0.7 percent of gross domestic product chaired the UN Security Council in February. the UK’s political economy, identity and In November it will host, in Glasgow, place in the world by using it to help Scotland, the UN-led 26th Conference of Brexit is seen rebalance the economy and pursue his Parties (COP26) on climate chang8. This event by some as Global Britain agenda. While his big victory will be a massive test of the UK’s post-Brexit a similar in the 2019 general election gave this capacity to shape international relations, watershed agenda a fillip, his often-inept handling with the likelihood of much pressure moment of the pandemic in 2020 has eroded his to agree sweeping reductions in global political capital13, despite the successful UK greenhouse-gas emissions beyond the levels vaccination roll-out so far in 2021. already set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. With few fixed principles and lacking Yet after the domestic divisiveness of a clear ideology, a habit of disregarding Brexit, the UK’s place in the world remains detail in favor of showmanship, plus the contested and this creates barriers to problems that the pandemic has brought, Johnson’s Global Britain narrative taking he is finding it difficult to lead let alone hold across the nation. sustain a coherent, lasting consensus. The The start of new eras in UK politics result, following the still-divisive 2016 Brexit traditionally have been marked by watershed referendum, is that instead of a defining elections, such as in 1945 when Labour swept narrative, the UK’s sense of itself and its Winston Churchill from power9, or the dawn place in the world remain disputed14. of Thatcherism with the Conservative victory The 1945 and 1979 resets revolved largely in the 1979 General Election. Both of these around political economy, and Johnson hopes overturned the settled ways of the nation’s this can be true in the 2020s too. One key government, economy and society10. debate here is around a rebalancing of the Brexit is seen by some as a similar watershed UK economy, with some Brexiteers favoring moment. Instead of a new consensus, a so-called “Singapore-on-Thames” model of however, it may prove to be a dissensus that international trade and deregulation15. defines UK politics going forward. Imbalances in the economy have long been This is not only because of disagreements a concern in UK politics. Johnson wants over some areas of foreign policy. to use Brexit and his Global Britain vision Domestically there are also challenges to to help expedite a “leveling-up” domestic internal unity, with Scotland and Northern agenda, by reaching out to socioeconomically Ireland’s place in the union increasingly disadvantaged sections of the population. being debated, and also a constitution and These include the Midlands and North of party system that is in a state of flux, making England, areas in which the Conservatives it significantly harder for a major new made historic electoral in-roads in 201916. settlement to emerge11. However, the ultimate outcome, in terms The consensuses that emerged in 1945 and of a potential new economic model, 1979 were the products of changes, long in remains unclear. Conservatives have long the pipeline, linked to wider international struggled to balance a commitment to to 0.5 percent. A pro-Brexit wants the nation to continue to play a major trends and events, such as the Great globalization and international trade with demosntrator with While this was much criticized in a banner is seen role in international security, including Depression, the end of the Second World sovereignty and nationalism. Westminster, a YouGov poll in November outside the Houses of through its membership of NATO7. War, and the collapse in the early 1970s of In addition, the possibility of embracing a Parliament in London on indicated that two thirds of the population October 30. 2019. AFP While the UK military budget will increase the Bretton Woods international currency- deregulated, low-tax, Singapore-on-Thames favored reducing the amount spent on significantly, the government announced this exchange system. approach also faces a number of problems. overseas aid6. month that it is reducing the size of its army However, even these resets were by no Firstly, it can misread the situation in While Brexiteers clearly do not hold to 72,500 regular soldiers, the lowest number means complete or fully accepted. Margaret Singapore, where state involvement can still uniform views on foreign policy, Johnson since the early 18th century. Investment will Thatcher was prime minister from 1979 until be significant. Moreover, the economic costs has put his prime ministerial power behind be redirected to new technologies such as 1990 but despite her best efforts to cut state and disruption of moving to such a model a “Global Britain” narrative designed to drones and robotics, to equip the military to spending, it still remains relatively high in might well hit hardest those disadvantaged showcase the UK’s continued international fight what are perceived to be the wars of the comparison with international counterparts, communities it is supposed to help. leadership ambitions, from Asia-Pacific to the future in cyberspace. and was so even before the pandemic. Yet another issue is the fact that following Americas. As a step toward realizing these However, the prime minister’s Global Meanwhile the nation’s relative decline — last month’s budget, the tax burden in the UK ambitions, Johnson last November pledged Britain plans go far beyond the military to which she sought to reverse — continues, is at its highest level since the late 1960s, to £16.5 billion ($22.7 billion) for increased encompass wider diplomacy. In 2021 the UK according to many12. help pay for about £400 billion of pandemic- defense spending in the next few years, and THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED holds the rotating presidency of the G7, and it Johnson wants to use Brexit to transform THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED related spending17. Understandably, Johnson has sought GCC countries for post-Brexit trade deals. Pro-Brexit campaigners walk to highlight what are, potentially, very While such agreements might take years during the first leg of significant opportunities for the UK in to negotiate, many countries in the region the March To Leave march in Sunderland the post-Brexit political and economic already have relatively low barriers to trade, on March 16, 2019. AFP landscapes, including in the fast-growing which enables business to operate in a economies of the Asia-Pacific region more frictionless fashion than would and the Americas. Yet, in addition to the otherwise be the case. potential upsides of Brexit, there are also key Some post-Brexit divergence is inevitable as challenges to face. the UK and EU economies evolve. However, The two pillars of UK foreign policy in the UK’s ability to leverage this, in the the post-war period — its US and European short term at least, can be overstated. Some alliances — are in flux. After the perceived Brexiteers, including Fox, have argued that closeness of his relationship with Donald new UK trade deals are only a means to an Trump, Johnson is out of sync with Joe Biden end and that the economy needs to be better on a number of key issues. The UK prime configured to benefit from them. minister also faces tricky post-Brexit relations So as Brexiteers increasingly seek to with his EU neighbors. articulate where and how they want the This creates a headache for Johnson at nation to diverge from the EU, there is a time when he wants to recalibrate UK some recognition that this will not be a international policy in every part of the simple process. Historically, Europe has globe — and when the country is already been the UK’s main trading partner, except facing other significant challenges, from when the world economy descended into Russia’s stridency to the rise of China on the protectionism and the UK opted for international stage18. imperial preferences. One critical question is the extent to which One of the biggest options for divergence the UK should remain a European-aligned is greater alignment with the US. A trade economy. Many Brexiteers argue that deal with Washington has long been one diverging from the EU will boost growth by of Johnson’s goals, as it potentially offers encouraging the development of stronger significant scope for lowering or eliminating links with key emerging markets, such as tariffs on goods. China and the Gulf Cooperation Council Yet such an agreement is not the political (GCC) states. Other key targets include priority for the Biden administration that Commonwealth nations such as India, it was, rhetorically at least, for the Trump Australia and Canada, along with important team21. The new US president’s disdain for industrialized countries such as Japan Brexit, and his uneasy relationship with and the US. Johnson, is part of the reason why Biden Take the example of GCC nations, which has indicated that he prioritizes a potential already enjoy strong investment and trade trade deal with the EU over one with the UK, relationships with the UK and are key targets flipping Trump’s stated preferences. for enhanced relations. Outside of the EU, the In addition, the structure of the UK GCC is, alongside the US and China, one of economy, the costs of change, and the the largest export markets for the UK, with continued pull of the EU as a regulatory total bilateral trade that was worth about £45 superpower might temper such ambitions billion in 201919. in any case. Liam Fox, the UK’s former defense and Taken together these factors mean that international trade secretary, who was despite the historic change that Brexit nominated by Johnson last year as a candidate brings, it is far from certain that Johnson to lead the World Trade Organization, has will be able to forge a sweeping new UK said that the UK and GCC countries could political, social and economic settlement work together much more20, including in that synthesizes his Global Britain vision and sectors such as health sciences and financial wider domestic ambitions. and legal services. Moreover, almost two years into his volatile In an effort to develop these growing premiership the window of opportunity to act commercial relationships, the UK on this agenda might be closing fast, as the government has already approached countdown on his term in power continues. THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED Notes 1. UK Government, March 16 2021, Global Britain strategiceurope/83632 in a Competitive Age https://www.gov.uk/ government/publications/global-britain-in- 12. Janan Ganesh (Financial Times), Sep. 4 2017, a-competitive-age-the-integrated-review-of- Brexit sets Britain on stable path of managed security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy decline on.ft.com/2wBqrCh

2. Philip Aldrick (The Times), Dec. 26 2020, 13. The Economist, Sep. 5 2020, Competence Britain is world’s fifth largest economy again after matters and Johnson hasn’t got it https://www. leapfrogging India https://www.thetimes.co.uk/ economist.com/britain/2020/09/05/competence- article/britain-is-fifth-largest-economy-in-world- matters-and-johnson-hasnt-got-it again-after-leapfrogging-india-wccxxxcqr 14. John Curtice (BBC News), Dec. 24 2020, Brexit: 3. Jawad Iqbal (BBC News), April 16 2015, Does how do voters think about it now https://www. the UK remain a world power? https://www.bbc. bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55416939 co.uk/news/uk-32317703 15. Tim Worstall (CapX), Dec. 19 2019, The case for 4. Jonathan Powell (The Guardian), Nov. 13 2017, a Singapore-on-Thames Brexit https://capx.co/the- Britain once punched above its weight. Now we case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/ are irrelevant https://www.theguardian.com/ commentisfree/2017/nov/13/britain-irrelevant- 16. BBC News, Dec. 27 2020, Brexit: PM vows world-transatlantic-brexit to focus on levelling up country after securing deal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk- 5. UK Government, Jan. 30 2021, UK applies to join politics-55456720 huge Pacific free trade zone CPTPP https://www. gov.uk/government/news/uk-applies-to-join- 17. David Milliken (Reuters), UK to unveil record huge-pacific-free-trade-area-cptpp 400 billion borrowing plan next week https:// www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus- 6. Matthew Smith (YouGov), Nov. 25 2020, Two britain-spending-idUSKBN2801HO thirds of Britons support cutting foreign aid budget https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ 18. Brad Lendon (CNN), March 16 2021, UK labels articles-reports/2020/11/25/two-thirds-britons- Russia top security threat, issues warning on China support-cutting-foreign-aid-bud https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/16/europe/uk- security-defense-review-intl-hnk-gbr/index.html 7. UK Government, Nov. 16 2020, PM to announce largest military investment in 30 years https:// 19. UK Government, Nov. 5 2020, Joint www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-to-announce- statement on UK-GCC Joint Trade and Investment largest-military-investment-in-30-years Review https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ joint-statement-on-uk-gcc-joint-trade-and- 8. UN Climate Change Conference UK 2021 investment-review https://ukcop26.org/ 20. Liam Fox (UK Government), April 19 2017, 9. Paul Addison (BBC News), Feb. 2 2017, Why Unlocking the full potential of the UK-GCC trade Churchill lost in 1945 http://www.bbc.co.uk/ and investment relationship https://www.gov. history/worldwars/wwtwo/election_01.shtml uk/government/speeches/unlocking-the-full- potential-of-the-uk-gcc-trade-and-investment- 10.BBC News, April 5 2005, 1979: Thatcher wins relationship Tory landslide http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_ politics/vote_2005/basics/4393311.stm 21. Nick Allen (Daily Telegraph), March 12 2021, US-UK trade deal may not happen till at least 2024 11. Peter Kellner (Carnegie Europe), Jan. 14 2021, as Biden prioritises China https://www.telegraph. Brexit and the gradual disintegration of the co.uk/news/2021/03/12/us-uk-trade-deal-may-not-

United Kingdom https://carnegieeurope.eu/ happen-least-2024-biden-prioritises/ THE MIDDLE EAST, BETTER EXPLAINED