Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment Groningen Field Update for Production Profile GTS - Raming 2019
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Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment Groningen Field update for Production Profile GTS - raming 2019 March 2019 By Jan van Elk, Assaf Mar-Or, Leendert Geurtsen, Jeroen Uilenreef and Dirk Doornhof 1 Seismic Risk Assessment of Production Profile “GTS raming 2019” for the Groningen field March 2019 © EP2019 Dit rapport is een weerslag van een voortdurend studie- en dataverzamelingsprogramma en bevat de stand der kennis van januari 2019. Het copyright van dit rapport ligt bij de Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. Het copyright van de onderliggende studies berust bij de respectievelijke auteurs. Dit rapport of delen daaruit mogen alleen met een nadrukkelijke status-en bronvermelding worden overgenomen of gepubliceerd. 2 Seismic Risk Assessment of Production Profile “GTS raming 2019” for the Groningen field March 2019 Contents Samenvatting van de Dreigings- en risicoinschatting ............................................................................. 6 Gevolgen van de operationele strategieën ............................................................................................. 6 Volumeverdeling per cluster voor warm, gemiddeld en koud jaar .................................................... 6 Dreigings- en risicoanalyse .................................................................................................................. 6 Beschrijving van de verwachte bodembeweging ............................................................................ 7 Beschrijving van aard en omvang schade........................................................................................ 9 Beschrijving van de risico’s als gevolg van de verwachte bodembeweging ................................. 10 Analyse van individueel aardbevingsrisico van gebouwen ........................................................... 11 Overzicht van gebouwtypologieën met een LPR > 10-5/jaar ..................................................... 13 Analyse van regionale productiefluctuaties ...................................................................................... 13 Vergelijking en samenvatting van operationele strategieën ............................................................ 15 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 17 Previous Hazard and Risk Assessment Reports ................................................................................. 17 Winningsplan 2016 ........................................................................................................................ 17 Hazard and Risk Assessment November 2017 .............................................................................. 17 Complementary production profiles ............................................................................................. 17 Basispad Kabinet (29/3/2018) ....................................................................................................... 17 Verwachtingenbrief (Expectation Letter) (2/5/2018) ................................................................... 19 Kamerbrief - Voortgang maatregelen gaswinningsbrief (6/6/2018) ............................................. 19 Production Profile GTS-raming February 2019 ............................................................................. 20 2 HRA-Model Improvements ............................................................................................................ 22 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 22 Exposure Database ............................................................................................................................ 22 Recent activities to improve the expose database ....................................................................... 23 Conclusions and general results of the studies ............................................................................. 26 Fragility and Consequence Models for building typologies .......................................................... 26 Study activities following assurance meeting ............................................................................... 27 Summary of main improvements to the fragility curves – Version 6............................................ 31 3 Production Profile .......................................................................................................................... 32 Production profile: Demand profiles GTS-raming 2019 .................................................................... 32 Spatial distribution of production (Operational Strategy) ................................................................ 34 Optimisation of production distribution to minimize seismic hazard and risk ............................. 34 Strategy definition ......................................................................................................................... 34 Production regions ........................................................................................................................ 36 Model implementation ................................................................................................................. 36 3 Seismic Risk Assessment of Production Profile “GTS raming 2019” for the Groningen field March 2019 Modelling setup ................................................................................................................................. 37 Dynamic reservoir model (Mores model V5) ................................................................................ 37 Production data 1/1/2019 to 30/9/2019 ...................................................................................... 37 Surface network model (Genrem) ................................................................................................. 37 Production considerations ............................................................................................................ 37 Production Fluctuations .................................................................................................................... 38 Production profiles ............................................................................................................................ 40 Reference case (IB2018) ................................................................................................................ 40 Strategy 1 (pwPGV) – Cold temperature year ............................................................................... 47 Strategy 1 (pwPGV) – Warm temperature year ............................................................................ 50 Strategy 2 (Event count) – Average Temperature ......................................................................... 53 Strategy 2 (Event count) – Cold temperature year ....................................................................... 56 Strategy 2 (Event count) – Warm temperature year .................................................................... 59 4 Event Rate and Hazard Assessment .............................................................................................. 62 Event rate forecast ............................................................................................................................ 62 5 Hazard Assessment........................................................................................................................ 65 Hazard metrics ................................................................................................................................... 65 Risk Assessment ............................................................................................................................ 65 Building Damage Assessment ........................................................................................................ 65 Hazard Map for Peak Ground Acceleration ................................................................................... 66 Hazard Assessment ........................................................................................................................... 68 Hazard for gas-year 2019 / 2020 ................................................................................................... 95 6 Risk Assessment ............................................................................................................................ 99 Risk Metrics ....................................................................................................................................... 99 Individual Risk Metrics ................................................................................................................... 99 Object-related Individual Risk and Individual Risk .................................................................... 99 Inside and Outside Local Personal Risk ..................................................................................... 99 Current Practice in Risk Assessments ...................................................................................... 101 Proposed improvement of the Risk Assessment ..................................................................... 102 Residence Time Estimates ....................................................................................................... 102 Number of buildings compared to the safety norm.......................................................................