Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

February, 2021

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ

Ministry of Water and Irrigation

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector Amman | Leipzig, February 2021

Publisher Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Permoserstr. 15 04318 | Leipzig | Germany [email protected] | www.ufz.de

In cooperation with Ministry of Water and Irrigation P.O. Box 2412-5012 11181 | Amman | Jordan T: + 962 6 5652265 / +962 6 5652267 F: + 962 6 5652287 I: www.mwi.gov.jo

This report should be cited as follows:

Breulmann M., Müller R.A., Al-Subeh A. and van Afferden M. (2021) Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan – Effects on the Water Sector. Published by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ with support from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation; Amman – Leipzig.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. No part of this report may be reproduced transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording or any information storage and retrieval system without prior permission in writing from the publisher.

Disclaimer The designation employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ or the Ministry of the Water and Irrigation concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This report was mainly written using the listed references as well as information currently available in the database of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation as well as in the Water Authority of Jordan or provided by third parties. No guarantee can be given for the accuracy or veracity of either the data or the results derived from its analysis and represented in this report.

ISBN: 978-3-944280-16-5

Acknowledgements This work was compiled by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ for the National Implementation Committee for Effective Integrated Wastewater Management in Jordan – NICE and was supported by a grant from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF – FKZ: 02WM1458 “Implementation-Office Amman”).

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Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Contents

Contents ...... iv List of Figures ...... v List of Tables ...... vi List of Boxes ...... vii List of Acronyms ...... viii Summary ...... x xii ...... اﻟﻤﻠﺨﺺ 1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Hosting Syrian Refugees ...... 1 — Housing ...... 4 — Income and expenditures ...... 6 — Education ...... 6 — Health ...... 7 — SARS-CoV-2 crisis ...... 7 2. Water and Sanitation ...... 9 — Jordan Response Plan ...... 11 — The tanker business ...... 12 — Ministry of Water and Irrigation ...... 15 2.1 The Northern Governorates ...... 16 — Wastewater treatment and reuse ...... 17 — Water demand and wastewater generation ...... 20 — Current investment projects ...... 21 2.2 Scenarios for future water demand and wastewater generation ...... 26 2.3 Challenges in the Northern Governorates ...... 31 3. References ...... 32 4. Annexes ...... 35

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

List of Figures

Figure 1 Water stress in Europe and the MENA Region. Adopted from: The World Resource Institute...... 1 Figure 2 Registered Syrian refugees in Jordan from 2013 – 2019 (Source: UNHCR)...... 2 Figure 3 Distribution of the numbers of registered Syrian refugees in Jordan for the year 2017...... 3 Figure 4 Locations of the centralized wastewater treatment plants in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Jarash and Ajloun...... 17 Figure 5 Groundwater vulnerability map and Hot Spots of a) the Irbid and b) the Ajloun Governorate. Adopted from (Breulmann et al., 2020a)...... 19 Figure 6 Overview of planned water and wastewater projects in the Irbid Governorate. Source: Project Management Unit of the Jordanian Water Authority...... 25 Figure 7 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Irbid Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: annual population increase of 2.1%; water demand of 80L/p/d; Syrian refugees will start to return by 2025; S1: All Syrian refugees remain; S2: All Syrian refugees leave; S3: 50% of the Syrian refugees leave, and S4: 25% of the Syrian refugees leave...... 27 Figure 8 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Mafraq Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: as for Figure 7...... 28 Figure 9 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Ajloun Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: as for Figure 7...... 28 Figure 10 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Jarash Governorate till 2045. Assumptions as for Figure 7...... 29

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

List of Tables

Table 1 Distribution of Syrians in Jordan for the year 2017 (Source: Department of Statistics)...... 4 Table 2 Data on centralized wastewater treatments plants in the Northern Governorates of Jordan (Breulmann et al., 2020b; MWI, 2018). MCM: Million Cubic Meter...... 18 Table 3 Calculated population increase, drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. It was considered that all refugees will remain in the Governorates (Scenario 1). Assumptions: annual population increase of 2.1% and water demand of 80L/p/d (Source: Department of Statistics)...... 21 Table 4 Consequences of scenario two (S2): ‘All Syrian refugees leave’ on the drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. Assumptions: as for Table 3...... 35 Table 5 Consequences of scenario three (S3): ‘50% of the Syrian refugees leave on the drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. Assumptions: as for Table 3...... 36 Table 6 Consequences of scenario four (S4): ‘25% of the Syrian refugees leave’. on the drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. Assumptions: as for Table 3...... 37

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

List of Boxes

Box 1 General facts about the influx of Syrian refugees on the water sector of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan...... ix Box 2 Definition of the term ‘Host Communities’. Source: UNHCR...... 2

Photos and Credits

Photo 1 Orange tankers releasing their collected wastewater to a discharge point at a centralized wastewater treatment plant in Jordan (© Marc Breulmann)...... 14

Credits

1st row of the cover page (from left): Dr. Marc Breulmann

2nd row of the cover page (from left): 1st Dr. Marc Breulmann | 2nd/ 3rd André Künzelmann

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Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

List of Acronyms

Abbreviation Specification

AFD Agence Française de Développement,

CU5 Children Under 5

CWWTP Centralized Wastewater Treatment Plant

GPS Global Positioning System

JRP Jordan Response Plan

JS Jordanian Standard

JVA Jordan Valley Authority

KAC King Abdullah Canal

NICE National Implementation Committee for Effective Integrated Wastewater Management

NRW Non-Revenue Water

MCM Million Cubic Meter

MEAN Middle East and North Africa

MoEnv Ministry of Environment

MoH Ministry of Health

MoPIC Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation

MWI Ministry of Water and Irrigation

SDG Sustainable Development Goal

TWW Treated Wastewater

UN United Nations

UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

USD Unites States Dollar

WAJ Water Authority of Jordan

WFP World Food Programme

WUA Water User Association

WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plant

YWC Yarmouk Water Company

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Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

General facts about the influx of Syrian refugees on the water sector of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. of theof Kingdom sector Hashemite Syrian water of facts therefugees about General influx on

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Summary

Jordan is burdened by an extreme ultimately, enormous pressures on the scarcity of water and the challenges sewage network and wastewater related to this have been aggravated treatment plants. by an influx of refugees since the year The old distribution networks were not 2013. The total number of registered built to support the vast increase of the and unregistered Syrian refugees is population. Additional stresses on the estimated to be around 1.3 million. The existing water infrastructure require majority of Syrian refugees in Jordan, urgent repairs and maintenance of about 84%, live in urban areas and it’s water pumping stations, and renovation highly likely that the majority will of wastewater treatment plants in order remain in Jordan. The Syrian refugees to prevent further contamination of the were, and still are, highly vulnerable water supply. and they continue to struggle - The overall demand for water has especially with: high housing rental increased by 40% in the Northern prices; sourcing income-generating Governorates in the last few years as a activities; overcrowding of public sector direct result of hosting Syrian refugees. services such as education and health; However, the frequency of water and competition over resources, such supply in some locations has as water. decreased from once a week to once The tense water situation in Jordan every four weeks. It has been was already apparent long before the calculated that the expected water influx of Syrian refugees. The demand and wastewater generation population growth due to refugees from will almost double by the year 2045, if Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq, as well as all the Syrian refugees stay in Jordan. droughts, trans-boundary tensions over Apart from that the presence of the water resources, water Syrian refugees is directly related to mismanagement and an inefficient the securing of large amounts of agricultural sector, have all been humanitarian aid and infrastructure identified as the main issues affecting investments. the water sector (Hussein et al., 2020). Water is often considered a public Today, however, the effects are even good rather than a commodity, and more apparent than ever before. In water theft is one of the main issues particular, the Northern Governorates being addressed by the Jordanian Irbid and Mafraq have been affected by Government (Baylouny and Klingseis, the influx of Syrian refugees where the 2018). Groundwater is the main source population increase has caused a of freshwater. However, more than significant additional demand for water, 50% of the total groundwater resulting in local water shortages and, abstraction is considered

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

unsustainable due to overexploitation secure water supplies and wastewater or abstraction from nonrenewable fossil treatment for the future. It has focused aquifers (Breulmann et al., 2020b). principally on sub-urban and urban Furthermore, the indirect disposal of areas of the Irbid Governorate, which untreated wastewater through has had the highest influx of Syrian cesspools or leaking sewer systems refugees. However, little has been has further threatened the quality of achieved so far. Jordan’s scarce groundwater The Jordanian government is in a resources. Moreover, competition dilemma. The potential costs are among the domestic, agricultural and enormous. It’s already obvious that the industrial sectors seriously jeopardizes intended investments will not meet water sustainability. future demands and solutions need to Another controversial point is that be implemented immediately. If current although the agricultural sector’s water water management practices continue requirements accounts for around 52% without change, many aquifers will of national water needs, it contributes soon be lost: they will either dry out, only 3% – 4% to gross domestic become too saline, or become polluted. production (Breulmann et al., 2020b). With this clear investment backlog, Moreover, aside from the fresh water traditional decision pathways of supply, the issues of wastewater and conservative planning must be left sewage treatment are one of the most behind and regionally adapted prominent issues in the water sector in concepts for the future need to be general. Complaints against local water implemented. For example, an companies have significantly increased integrated wastewater and water due to clogged sewage systems which management approach and the led to a public outcry in 2013 (Baylouny implementation of semi- and and Klingseis, 2018). decentralized wastewater treatment systems will assist in mitigating Overall, we can say that the Syrian extreme water scarcity and protect refugees did not create the water groundwater resources in Jordan. scarcity in Jordan; however, it has clearly been exacerbated by their Technological changes are clearly presence. Indeed, it could be said that needed for the long-term in order to the influx of Syrian refugees has mitigate the problems within the water exposed the inherent deficits of the sector. However, these will only result Jordanian water infrastructure and its in positive outcomes if institutional mismanagement. changes are initiated through the political will of the Jordanian The Jordanian Ministry of Water and government. Irrigation (MWI) has therefore conducted various large and costly studies during recent years in order to

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

اﻟﻣﻠﺧص

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1. Introduction

ccording to a report conditions associated with climate published in 2019 by the change. A World Resource Institute currently 17 countries face “extremely high” levels of water stress, where agriculture, industries and municipalities withdraw more than 80% of available water resource every year1.

The country Jordan ranks fifth in the nations that face the greatest water stress (Figure 12).

Jordan has one of the lowest levels of water availability per capita in the world

(100 m3), which is far below the global threshold for severe water scarcity Figure 1 Water stress in Europe and the MENA Region. Adopted from: The World Resource Institute3. (500 m3) and, as such, is constantly being challenged by water shortages (Breulmann et al., 2020b; Halalsheh et al., 2018). The country burdened by 1.1 Hosting Syrian extreme water scarcity, a factor which Refugees has always been one of the biggest barriers to the country’s economic Largely since 2013, Jordan has growth and development. experienced a massive influx of Syrians who have fled civil war. Challenges related to water scarcity According to UNHCR4 about 324,000 have been aggravated by an influx of Syrian refugees registered in 2013, refugees, which is related to ongoing which had increased to 744,721 political unrest in the region. Water registrations by the end of 2019 scarcity challenges are furthermore (Figure 2). Estimates of the total exacerbated by worsening drought

1 www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/17-countries-home-one- 3 www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/17-countries-home-one- quarter-world-population-face-extremely-high-water- quarter-world-population-face-extremely-high-water- stress stress 2 4 ttps://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/36

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

number of refugees vary between different reports (UNHCR, 2018a; b), A ‘Host Community’ is defined as however, the overall total number follows: “[… ] A host community (registered and unregistered) is in this context refers to the estimated to be around 1,330,000 country of asylum and the local, (UNHCR, 2019). This makes Jordan regional and national second only to Lebanon as being the governmental, social and world’s highest per capita refugee economic structures within which hosting country (UNHCR, 2018a). In refugees live. Urban refugees Lebanon, one out of five, while in live within host communities with Jordan one out of 15 is a refugee or without legal status and (UNHCR, 2019). Over recent years the number of refugees has remained Box 2 Definition of the term ‘Host Communities’. constant due to stricter entry criteria, Source: UNHCR5. since Syrians need to register with the Ministry of Interior and UNHCR (JIF, Although in October 2018 the ‘Jaber- 2018). In general, the majority of Nasib’ border crossing between Jordan and Syria reopened, only a small Syrian refugees in Jordan, about 84%, live below the poverty line in urban number returned to Syria and it is areas where they contribute to highly likely that the majority will remain in Jordan (UNHCR, 2018b). significant population increases and add pressure to the various service A survey conducted by NAMA sectors (UNHCR, 2018a; 2019). Strategic Intelligence Solutions, in partnership with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, suggested that only a small proportion (approximately 14%) of the population is committed to return to Syria, while more than 50% are planning to remain in Jordan (Rosshandler, 2019). The living situation for Syrian refugees is still

Figure 2 Registered Syrian refugees in Jordan from challenging although many of them 2013 – 2019 (Source: UNHCR). have now been in the host country for four or more years. The vast majority of

5www.unhcr.org/protection/resettlement/4cd7d1509/u nhcr-ngo-toolkit-practical-cooperation-resettlement- community-outreach.html

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Syrian refugees have been integrated Most of the Syrian refugees in the within host communities (see Box 1) in north originated from Dar’a (47%), urban, peri-urban and rural areas. Homs (32%) and Rural Damascus However, they continue to suffer (8%) (MercyCorps, 2013). increasing vulnerability and face high rates of poverty (UNHCR, 2019).

These high numbers of Syrian refugees have put an enormous burden on Jordan. The direct cost of the Syrian Crisis to Jordan since 2011 has been calculated to be about 11 billion USD, which covers the costs of providing education, health, water, energy, sanitation and other services (MoPIC, 2019; Rosshandler, 2019).

In 2018 the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan presented an integrated humanitarian and resilience Figure 3 Distribution of the numbers of registered Syrian refugees in Jordan for the year 2017. response to the situation facing refugees and host communities with This population increase has affected clear strategic directions guiding the public services for all, particularly the coordination of overall regional quality and availability of education, responses, and responses at the and the decline of healthcare through country level (UNHCR, 2019). The an overburdening of facilities (Carrion, Response Strategies in various sectors 2015; Muller et al., 2016). It has addressed such areas as protection, furthermore caused a significant food security, education, health and increase in the demand for water, nutrition, basic needs, shelter, WASH, associated with increased local water livelihoods, and social cohesion shortages, thus putting enormous (UNHCR, 2019). The Northern pressures on the sewage network and Governorates in particular, such as wastewater treatment plants Irbid and Mafraq, have received large (Alshoubaki and Harris, 2018; Carrion, numbers of Syrian refugees accounting 2015). For example, in both Mafraq for up to 19% of the entire and Ramtha, water, education and governorates’ populations in Irbid and health services emerged as 38% in Mafraq (Table 1, Figure 3).

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

increasingly urgent needs for the residents (MercyCorps, 2013).

Table 1 Distribution of Syrians in Jordan for the year 2017 (Source: Department of Statistics).

Overall, housing, education, health and water emerged as the leading areas — Housing that municipal authorities need to manage in order to provide for the It has been shown that host influx of refugees (MercyCorps, 2013). communities, like Jordan, clearly In northern Jordan, four key macro- benefit from the presence of refugees level drivers of tension between and the associated international aid refugees and host communities have they receive (Carrion, 2015). been identified (REACH, 2014a): For example, the increased housing Increase in housing rent prices. demand has allowed owners to set higher rents (Carrion, 2015). Business Competition for income- owners have benefited from higher generating activities. consumer demand and the availability Overcrowding of public sector of informal Syrian labour prepared to services like education and work for wages that would not be health. accepted by Jordanians.

Competition for resources, such When the influx of Syrian refugees to as water. Jordan started, the MercyCorps had

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

already highlighted the increased cost understand the decision-making of housing, competition over jobs, and framework being employed the uneven distribution of aid as key (Rosshandler, 2019). sources of tension; however, although The Government of Jordan has tensions were rising they had not estimated that poverty rates range from erupted into violence (MercyCorps, 15% – 25% in the Northern 2013). Governorates and that essential In particular, the tension over housing services and resources - in particular occurred since rental prices increased that of access to adequate housing as by up to six times the original rates, one of the basic needs (JIF, 2018) – which has priced Jordanians out of and others as mentioned above such their own housing and has taken as municipal services, education, advantage of the Syrians’ prospects for income-generating circumstances (MercyCorps, 2013). opportunities, and access to water, all emerge as key drivers of tension at the Due to these exorbitant prices, Syrians macro-level (REACH, 2014a). were often forced to accommodate as many as 20 people in one flat In general, it can be assumed that the (MercyCorps, 2013). However, other majority of Syrian refugees in Jordan sources report that the mean live in ‘proper’ houses. Apartments are household size is 5.3 persons, which is far more common than traditional the same as the average size found for houses (so called dars), since they are Syrians in Jordan’s 2015 population more readily available and affordable in census, where only 4% of the urban areas (Tiltnes et al., 2019). households have 10 persons or more, Thus, about 96% of the Syrian and the median number of people refugees in Amman live in apartments, sharing a single bedroom is 3.7 (Tiltnes compared to only 45% in Mafraq, et al., 2019). which has a more rural character, and The presence of many vulnerable where makeshift housing, often in the Syrians struggling to afford their rent form of tents and huts, is not and other basic living costs presents a uncommon (Tiltnes et al., 2019). real challenge for Jordan. The support Due to the considerable proportion of given is often not perceived as being Syrian refugees in Mafraq who live in distributed to those most in need, tents or huts, it is quite common for which creates confusion and tension them to improvised forms of outside among host and refugee communities toilets, and/or that toilets are shared alike because many people do not

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

among a number of households. By foreign workers (e.g. construction, comparison, most apartments have agriculture, service, industry, cleaning) their own sanitary facilities of a certain (UNHCR, 2019). standard (Tiltnes et al., 2019). WFP According to MoPIC, 39,344 work and REACH (2016) described Syrian permits had already been issued, refugees residing in such informal between 1st January and 23rd housing as being in a particularly November 2017 (UNHCR, 2019). vulnerable position in the labour market, and experience food security levels that are below those of other — Education refugees. Since the beginning of 2017, the

Ministry of Education in Jordan has — Income and expenditures successfully accommodated the double shift system in response to Most Syrian refugee households are overcrowding in public schools living below the Jordanian poverty line (UNHCR, 2017a). Only about 54% of (Abu Hamad et al., 2017). The mean Syrian children below the age of 18 monthly household expenditures are attend school, compared to 85% of approximately: rent 135 JD; energy Jordanian children, due to financial 21 JD; food 120 JD; tap water 5 JD; obstacles including the costs of school bottled water 3 JD; transportation fees and transportation (CARE, 2018). 10 JD; phone/mobile 10 JD; medical treatment 17 JD (Tiltnes et al., 2019). A third of Syrian refugee children are not in the correct grade for their age The median yearly household income and Syrian schoolchildren also face is also significantly lower in Mafraq at verbal and physical harassment at around 1,000 JD, and in other school (CARE, 2018). governorates, while it is around 3,000 JD in Amman, Irbid and Zarqa Core components within the (Tiltnes et al., 2019). educational sector, as identified by UNHCR (2017c), were (i) completion of It has been suggested that the partial formal education and missed economic inclusion of Syrian refugees schooling; (ii) children who are at risk could provide thousands of jobs for of not completing their education (i.e. Jordanians and Syrian refugees over early ‘drop out’) and (iii) access to the coming years, especially in sectors education. where Jordanian participation is low and where we find a high ratio of

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

— Health recent progress made by Jordan in lowering birth rates, and improving The lack of free health care services nutrition and access to health (Okour et for Syrian refugees outside of camps al., 2012). has widened the health inequalities The Syrian refugee population is also between the two populations, and has faced with higher rates of affected Jordan’s health and communicable diseases due to poor development indicators. Increasing the living conditions and gaps in co-payments made by Syrian refugees immunisations, and as such, their has further increased their lack of communities have been placed at risk, access to proper health care since as well as adding further pressure to 41% of their income already goes the Jordanian health care system. This towards medical expenses (UNHCR, has had repercussions in immunisation 2017b). coverage, where the percentage of Although the mortality rate among children receiving all basic children under 5 (CU5) in Jordan is immunisations has decreased, and the within Sustainable Development Goal percentage receiving no vaccinations (SDG) targets, the CU5 mortality rate at all has increased. among Syrian refugees is much higher Jordan must move towards providing which affects the country’s overall universal health care to all populations indicator rate. Reproductive health within the country in order to improve indicators are also affected as the its health and development indicators maternal mortality rate has also against the SDGs. increased over recent years. Family planning statistics are poor, partly due to a lack of awareness within the — SARS-CoV-2 crisis refugee population, of services available in Jordan; this is Another example highlights the compounded by their lack of financial dramatic situation of the Syrian stability and access to transportation. refugees in Jordan, who are Displacement coping mechanisms increasingly vulnerable, facing high within the refugee population have rates of poverty (UNHCR, 2019) and included early forced marriages, having are now additionally affected by the more children, and having them earlier, SARS-CoV-2/ Covid-19 crisis. which has also affected gender Low-income and marginalized equality and women’s and children’s communities are those most vulnerable health indicators. This has retarded the

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

to the crisis. The strong measures assistance that is critical for many (e.g. lockdown) implemented by the refugees’ daily lives. Jordanian government, as they Because the majority of Syrian declared a state of emergency in refugees in Jordan live below the March 2020, have received praise poverty line (UNHCR, 2018a; 2019) domestically. However, although they they do not have the economic means might be necessary in light of the to stock up on supplies. Without any global health crisis, there is also a risk income the majority will be unable to of significant collateral damage purchase any necessities or pay rent (Dhingra, 2020). during the lockdown. The strong measures, like travel Labor restrictions and disruptions to restrictions within Jordan and across the flow of international aid for the border, have disrupted aid refugees and vulnerable host activities, threatened livelihoods and communities will have dramatic failed to consider the needs not only of consequences which are only likely to the refugees but also of vulnerable worsen (Dhingra, 2020). Jordanians (Dhingra, 2020).

These travel restrictions have threatened the flow of international

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

2. Water and Sanitation

the beginning of the influx of Most Syrian refugee households Syrian refugees, Jordanians therefore rely on piped water or buy it A complained that the Syrians from tanker trucks, as is the case in were not attentive to Jordan’s water Mafraq, whereas only a few rely on shortage problem – “Syrians’ cavalier other sources of water such as attitude to water usage is partially rainwater, wells and groundwater responsible for the lack of water in the (Tiltnes et al., 2019). North” (MercyCorps, 2013). A survey has assessed that 60% of The insufficient water supply has led to Syrians are likely to be severely frustration amongst the indigenous vulnerable in terms of water, sanitation population since there exists a and hygiene (WASH) services, which widespread belief among Jordanians often remain unavailable or command that Syrians are not accustomed to exorbitant rates (Tiltnes et al., 2019; rationing water (Hussein et al., 2020; UNHCR, 2017c). REACH, 2014b) and that the quality of Concerning sanitation, 77 out of 88 available water is likely to be degraded sub-districts were categorized as by Syrian refugees (Baylouny and ‘highly to severely vulnerable’ Klingseis, 2018); however, this according to the sanitation vulnerability perceived threat has not been criteria of: poverty, coverage, confirmed at all. wastewater treatment plant condition, About 44% of Syrian refugee network age, and Syrian vs. Jordanian households consume bottled drinking population (MoPIC, 2019). water, and about 34% are connected to Nearly 90% of Syrian refugees have the public water network. It has also access to national water and sewage been reported that about 12% of networks, including a regular water households run out of water, at least supply, with 20% experiencing once in a while, due to inadequate wastewater overflows more than once storage tanks or because either the during the previous year. The most landlord or water authority cut the vulnerable may not have safe (or supply (Tiltnes et al., 2019), however, sufficient) water storage (Tiltnes et al., the local Jordanian community is facing 2019), and a number of challenges the same issues. remain concerning the efficiency and

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

effectiveness of water and wastewater theft (Hussein, 2018; Hussein et al., systems (MoPIC, 2019). 2020; MoPIC, 2019; REACH, 2014b).

Water and sanitation vulnerabilities The old but extant distribution networks have clearly increased because of the were not built to support the vast refugee crisis, particularly in Jordan’s increase of the population currently Northern and Central Governorates. being experienced. Additional stress on existing water infrastructure requires The overall demand for water has the urgent repair and maintenance of increased by 40% in the Northern water pumping stations and renovation Governorates in the last few years as a of wastewater treatment plants to direct result of hosting Syrian refugees, prevent further water supply while the frequency of water supply in contamination (Breulmann et al., some locations has decreased from 2020b; REACH, 2014b). once a week to once every four weeks (MoPIC, 2019; REACH, 2014b). This Water shortages, as mentioned earlier, has forced residents to resort to water are putting sewerage networks under rationing and the adoption of other stress, and compounding existing coping mechanisms such as rainwater problems with solid waste collection, purchasing water from management, so causing levels of private tankers, and digging wells. sanitation to deteriorate (REACH, 2014b) The availability of water in Irbid, for instance, has not only fallen from 65 L The quantity of water supplied per to 50 L per person per day, which is capita has been reduced, and the well below the national objective of quality of water has also been 100 L, but there has also been a perceived to have decreased, with marked increase in the number of concerns being raised over the households residing in unsafe housing contamination of water sources due to which is not connected to the water the presence and construction of more network and is therefore dependent on cesspits and septic tanks (Breulmann water tankers (AFD, 2018). et al., 2020a; REACH, 2014b).

The overall water infrastructure and Finally, the Yarmouk and the Jordan piping networks are generally out- rivers are shared with neighbouring dated: often more than 50% of water is countries, binding Jordanian usage to Non-Revenue Water (NRW) that is lost obligations under bilateral agreements, as a result of leakages, weak which must be fulfilled. infrastructure, illegal consumption, and

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

— Jordan Response Plan of staff are in place and receive appropriate training (MoPIC, 2015). In 2014 the Jordanian Government The second JRP to the Syrian crisis developed the first response plan was developed for the years 2018- (JRP) to the Syrian crisis in partnership 2020 (MoPIC, 2017) since there was a with the United Nations (MoPIC, 2015). growing acknowledgment that the It represented a three-year program humanitarian funding and programming (2016-2018) of high priority were neither sufficient nor sustainable, interventions to enable the Kingdom of thereby requiring a more development- Jordan to respond to the effects of the oriented approach to build resilience Syrian crisis without jeopardizing its and reduce Jordan’s dependency on own development trajectory. The total humanitarian assistance over time cost of response interventions in the (MoPIC, 2017). The aims of this JRP over the period 2016-18 is about resilience-oriented approach were to 8.0 Billion USD for refugee ensure that the impact of the crisis interventions, resilience-strengthening, does not lead to lasting negative and specific budget support needs effects on the well-being of individuals, (MoPIC, 2015). The JRP: 2016-18 households, communities, institutions aimed to meet the humanitarian needs and systems, and to build national of Syrian refugees and the Jordanian capacity in order to absorb future population. It also fostered the external shocks (MoPIC, 2017). The resilience and effectiveness of JRP: 2018-2020 was budgeted with a education, energy, health, justice, total of 7.3 Billion USD including municipal services, social protection, 653 Million USD for the WASH sector. and water and sanitation (MoPIC, 2015). About 750 Million USD were However, the needs and requirements budgeted to ensure the provision of of Syrian refugees and Jordanian host essential and sustainable WASH communities have vastly outpaced the services such as: ensuring safe and financial support received by the equitable access to water services in JRP: 2016-18 and JRP: 2018-20. The camps while maintaining standards in 2019 JRP was therefore developed as host communities; upgrading and a one-year plan and the programmatic maintaining existing structures and response and the subsequent where necessary developing new budgetary requirements have been facilities; and developing technical captured only for the year 2019 and capacity to ensure adequate numbers allocated at 2.4 Billion USD including 229 Million USD for the WASH sector

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

(MoPIC, 2019). The strategic Within the kingdom of Jordan four objectives remain similar to the color-coded water tankers operate: JRP 2018-2020 given that the number green, blue, orange and black, each and distribution of Syrian refugees in restricted to carry a specific designated Jordan has not changed significantly grade of water. over the past year and that Green Tanker ➜ Drinking international aid has fallen short of water. needs. Orange Tanker ➜ Wastewater. Because of this, a third JRP to the Blue Tanker ➜ Non-Potable Syrian crisis was developed for the water. years 2020-22 (MoPIC, 2020). Due to the decreased funding in the past year, Black Tanker ➜ Industrial and although the situation in Syria Water. might seem stable, neighboring In general, either private businesses countries are still suffering and the JRP employ drivers of these tankers or they 2020-22 should include more flexible, are operated by individual owner- resilient and responsive structures. It drivers. aims to reduce pressure on Jordan as For example, the national body a host country and improve living responsible for controlling drinking conditions and self-reliance that will water and its Green Tankers is the help to eliminate vulnerabilities and Ministry of Health (MoH) which support Jordan in maintaining the implements, in this respect, the 2017 quality of services provided for Syrian Law of ‘Control and Inspection of refugees. Economic Activities’ No. 33. To gain a The JRP: 2020-22 was budgeted with licence for such a tanker one must a total of 6.6 Billion USD including apply to and receive an official 483 Million USD for the WASH sector. approval (stamp / signature) from the Environmental Health Department

within the district in which one lives. — The tanker business The Public Security Directorate (e.g. traffic department) will then provide the One further form of water supply final license for the tanker. beside the public network is the transport and sale of bulk water from In order to be approved, the 1953 groundwater wells or surface bodies “Regulation for the Tanker for Drinking via tanker trucks. Water”; Article (12) Industrial Law No. 16 has to be followed. This clearly

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

states that drinking water must only be members conducting inspections are received from private wells, which are accompanied by the Royal Department certified by MWI and MoH; agricultural for Environmental Protection and governmental wells are not (Rangers). certified for selling drinking water. Should a tanker fail its MoH tests the The amount of water that may be taken Public Security Directorate is informed, by the tanker is not specified by the who keep the tanker for about 1 – 2 Government, nor is the price per cubic weeks until it has satisfied inspection meter, which can therefore vary criteria and a fee of 200–250 JD has to between districts. be paid. Results of the monitoring are internally reviewed by the MoH and are The tankers are controlled and not published. monitored by the MoH, but this does not follow a regular scheme. Orange tankers for wastewater fall Nevertheless, under this ministerial under the responsibility of the Ministry control, the condition of the tankers can of Environment (MoEnv). The be tested and the level of chlorination procedure of getting a licence for an checked, which must return a chloride orange tanker is similar to the one concentration between 0.2 – 1.5 mg/L described above, the only difference according to (JS 286, 2005). Due to being that the application has to be security reasons and various violent submitted to the MoEnv. incidents in the past, all MoH staff

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Photo 1 Orange tankers releasing their collected wastewater to a discharge point at a centralized wastewater treatment plant in Jordan (© Marc Breulmann).

Uncontrolled wastewater dumping by receive their water from any well in private tankers is threatening Jordan, even from unlicensed ones. groundwater resources in Jordan However, this also means that during (Breulmann et al., 2020a) and needs to the summer, when water is scarce and be addressed by mapping such events rationed in some rural areas, blue (Melloni et al., 2013). Stricter control tankers often sell un-potable water to mechanisms were therefore the green tankers who will then sell it implemented by installing GPS on as drinking water. To receive a blue modules in orange tankers in order to tanker-licence the same procedure as track them and to make sure that the for a private car has to be followed. wastewater reaches the proper treatment plants.

For blue and black tankers no monitoring and control mechanisms exist. Blue tankers, for example, can

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

— Ministry of Water and supported by several donor Irrigation organization projects that have assisted in the development of water The official institutions in Jordan policy and water master-planning as involved in the water sector are the well as a restructuring of the water Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI), sector. the Water Authority (WAJ) and the The Ministry of Water and Irrigation Jordan Valley Authority (JVA). embraces the two most important The MWI was established in 1988 in entities dealing with water in Jordan: response to Jordan’s recognition of the WAJ: is responsible for the need for a more integrated approach to operational management of the national water management. water sector, which includes The MWI is responsible for overall bulk water supply and retail national leadership on policy, strategic distribution where direction and planning of Jordan’s commercialization of water sector, in coordination with WAJ distribution services has not and JVA. Under By-law No. 14 of 2014, occurred. WAJ is mandated for the MWI assumes full responsibility for all operational functions of the water and public sewage and all water sector including: related projects in Jordan. The MWI managing water and aims to upgrade, develop and regulate wastewater services; regulating the water sector and enhance the construction and quality of quality of water services. It has a service provision projects, mandate to do the following: develop operations and maintenance; sectoral policies and strategies; monitoring all levels of sector endorse plans and programs related to services; and supervising the water resources protection; implement water utilities and water international agreements; develop companies. WAJ continues to laws, by-laws, regulations and manage all contracts with the normative and technical standards; water companies, and both, develop private sector partnerships; WAJ and JVA recommend supervise the implementation of water service cost changes and strategic plans and programs; and capital projects, but the Cabinet follow up on the performance of water has ultimate regulatory companies and utilities. Since its authority, especially for tariffs. establishment, the MWI has been

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

JVA: is responsible for the The rest of the population is served by socioeconomic development of onsite management systems, the Jordan Valley. It primarily principally cesspools, from which manages bulk water supply for unwanted infiltration of unpurified irrigation, domestic and wastewater can lead to serious industrial purposes and contamination of the groundwater promotes land development in (Breulmann et al., 2020a; Breulmann et the Valley. The JVA is also al., 2020b). responsible for the following: The severe water scarcity effectively water resources development; renders wastewater treatment and re- improving the environment, use an important option for preserving hydroelectric power, tourism, and extending available water supplies. industry and other beneficial The reuse of properly treated uses in the Valley; setting all wastewater into national water necessary regulations to control resources management has clear the use of water in farm units, benefits for public health, groundwater, oversight of irrigation networks the environment and economic and agricultural roads networks; development (Breulmann et al., and the implementation of 2020b). Treated wastewater (TWW) master and detailed plans for may provide a significant renewable lands outside the planning and reliable water resource, and will authority of municipalities. The help conserve existing sources of JVA has organized Water freshwater. Users Associations (WUAs) in the Jordan Valley to encourage Furthermore, because TWW community and private sector constitutes a valuable source of water participation in managing public and nutrients in agricultural schemes, it resources and to provide also has value in terms of reduced services for its customers. chemical fertilizer use and increased agricultural productivity. However, such

benefits can only be realized if the 2.1 The Northern Jordanian government takes Governorates appropriate and timely action to improve the current situation and Jordan has managed to provide overcome existing obstacles approximately 67% of its population (Breulmann et al., 2020b). with a sewerage network (MWI, 2018).

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

— Wastewater treatment and decreased by approximately 50% after reuse the civil war. At the same time the reservoir storage in the Al-Wheda dam As mentioned earlier, the Northern in the North of Jordan decreased by Governorates like Irbid and Mafraq almost 50%. The immediate benefit of have received large numbers of Syrian a reduced need for irrigation water was refugees whose presence has put offset by the freshwater needs of severe strains on the infrastructure and thousands of Syrian refugees (Muller et its already scarce water resources. al., 2016).

A study by Muller et al. (2016) showed that the irrigated land area within the Yarmouk basin in southern Syria

Figure 4 Locations of the centralized wastewater treatment plants in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Jarash and Ajloun.

There are currently 11 centralized wastewater per year, with only about wastewater treatment plants 6.1 MCM/year being directly reused (CWWTPs) in the Northern (Breulmann et al., 2020b) (Table 2). Governorates with an overall design The remaining TWW, which capacity of about 31.8 MCM/year corresponds to 11.6 MCM, is indirectly (Figure 4). reused and discharged to wadis leading to the Jordan river (Breulmann The CWWTPs in the Northern et al., 2020b) (Table 2). Governorates actually treat 18.6 MCM

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Table 2 Data on centralized wastewater treatments plants in the Northern Governorates of Jordan (Breulmann et al., 2020b; MWI, 2018). MCM: Million Cubic Meter.

The CWWTPs seem to have been able streams, wadis and water bodies (JS to cope with the population increase 893, 2006) at locations in the Northern and the associated increase in Governorates where indirect use wastewater generation and are occurs at the Irbid Center, Wadi apparently functioning well within their Shallaleh, North Shouna and Wadi design capacity. However, this is a Arab facilities (Breulmann et al., misconception since large areas of the 2020b). Northern Governorate are not An optimization of CWWTPs in Jordan connected to a main sewer-network is urgently needed. The responsible and most wastewater is stored in ministries should plan further cesspits which are not properly sealed. investigations to evaluate the Furthermore, most CWWTPs currently performance of certain WWTPs that do not meet the respective irrigation/ are producing effluent that does not discharge limits of the Jordanian comply with JS 893 (2006). Increasing standard JS 893 (2006) and show a the quality and the secure delivery of lack of performance (Al-Assa'd and TWW will also create high quality reuse Sauer, 2010). E. coli concentrations options in the Northern Governorates are generally higher than the (Breulmann et al., 2020b). permissible limits for discharge to

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Furthermore, and as mentioned earlier, contaminated, through leakage of the overall water infrastructure and domestic wastewater from cesspools, piping networks are generally out- septic tanks, or through inappropriate dated. Often more than 50% of water is handling of wastewater from sewage NRW that is lost as a result of networks. Based on multi-dimensional leakages, weak infrastructure and criteria i.e. people served, level of illegal consumption (theft) (Hussein, pollution, frequency of pollution and the 2018; MoPIC, 2019; REACH, 2014b). presence of on-site treatment, 16 Hot In rural areas especially, which are Spots were identified in Jordan of generally not connected to the main which six are located in the Northern sewer network, the population has Governorates (Figure 5) namely: the increased markedly over recent years Hareema, Kufr Asad and Pella well and has contributed to the fields in Irbid, and the El-Beida, El- contamination of groundwater Qantara and Tannur/Rasun springs in resources (Breulmann et al., 2020a). In Ajloun (Breulmann et al., 2020a), which a study by Breulmann et al. (2020a) so clearly illustrates the severity of the called Hot Spots in Jordan were problem of water contamination. identified. Hot Spots are defined as areas where groundwater resources have been, or are expected to be,

Figure 5 Groundwater vulnerability map and Hot Spots of a) the Irbid and b) the Ajloun Governorate. Adopted from (Breulmann et al., 2020a).

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

— Water demand and management continues as it does at wastewater generation present, many aquifers will soon be lost: they will either dry out or they’ll The rapid population increase, which become too saline to use (Whitman, exceeded the expected annual 2019). increase of 2.1% (2013 – 2017) For example, it can be expected that resulted in the severe problems in the already for the year 2015 about water sector becoming more apparent 32 MCM/year of raw wastewater was very early. An estimated annual 2.1% not treated in one of the eleven population increase till the year 2045 CWWTPs. This figure has been will result in a demand for freshwater of estimated by subtracting the actual almost 150 MCM and wastewater treated wastewater at the CWWTP in being generated at a rate of the North from the estimated WW- approximately 95 MCM the Northern generation in 2015; Table 3. It is not Governorates (Table 3). Since the clear where this high amount ended Northern Governorates in particular up, but it can be assumed that most of were affected by the influx of Syrian it might be infiltrated into the soil refugees the expected water demand through leaking cesspits, impacting and wastewater generation will almost groundwater resources. However, the double by 2045. The MWI must actual number is probably much higher therefore consider initiatives to improve since NRW was not included in the the water situation specifically in this calculation. area (Farishta, 2014). If water

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Table 3 Calculated population increase, drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. It was considered that all refugees will remain in the Governorates (Scenario 1). Assumptions: annual population increase of 2.1% and water demand of 80L/p/d (Source: Department of Statistics).

— Current investment A study from 2015 on ‘Water projects Sector for the host communities of Syrian refugees in Northern The Jordanian Ministry of Water and Governorates in the Hashemite Irrigation has conducted various Kingdom of Jordan: Sewerage feasibility studies during recent years in and Water Supply’ describes order to secure the water supply and two Master Plans for sewerage wastewater treatment for the future systems in order to identify the (Whitman, 2019). However, these required improvements for the studies have focused predominantly on sewerage services as well to sub-urban and urban areas of the Irbid mitigate the existing poor water Governorate, which have been most supply services in the urban affected by the influx of Syrian areas of Irbid, Ramtha, and refugees (Figure 6). Mafraq. The Master Plans meet Some of the studies are listed below: the projected demand of a 2035 Jordanian population,

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

considering the current level of (WWTRE) Wadi Arab in YWC: Syrian refugees. The total Private Sector Operation & amount of water available for Management of WWTP’s Wadi the Northern Governorates is Shallala, Irbid Central & Wadi expected to increase to Arab, Transmission pipeline to 91 MCM/year from current Jordan Valley and the Hydro levels of 72 MCM/year, Power Plant’. however it was already clear A project from 2019: that even this would not satisfy ‘Investment Support to the the demand by 2017. The ‘Wadi Al Arab Water System II" overall investment costs were Project’ aims at treating and calculated as approximately conveying 30 MCM/year of 140 Million USD for the water freshwater from the King supply and 300 Million USD for Abdullah Canal (KAC) to the the sewerage systems. Zabda Reservoir, serving A 2016 study entitled: mainly the city of Irbid. ‘Wastewater collection, Additional water will treatment and reuse project for supplement the limited potable Liwa’a Al-Wasatia and East water resources available in the Irbid villiages’ includes the Irbid Governorate where the design of wastewater collection population continues to grow. networks, the treatment and The Project includes: (i) a raw effluent reuse from water intake from the KAC and communities of Liwa’a Al low-lift pump station located Wasatia and East Irbid Villages, adjacent to the KAC, (ii) a new Mughaier and Hakama, Kufur conventional water treatment Youba and unserved areas in plant and pumping station; (iii) a Soum Villages of the Irbid 25.6 km transmission pipeline Governorate. The overall to convey the treated investment costs were wastewater to the Zabda calculated as approximately Reservoir, (iv) three booster 77 Million USD. pumping stations (at altitudes of A Study from 2018, entitled: +26 m, +240 m and +435 m) ‘Operations Concept of along the transmission pipeline, Wastewater Treatment Plants & and (v) external assistance to Wastewater Reuse System the Promoter for construction

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

works supervision together with the water networks in greater communication activities. The Irbid and Ramtha, where water overall investment costs were could be distributed to fulfill the estimated at approximately expected needs in terms of 14 Million USD. volume and timeliness, with reduced leakage and energy A 2019 study entitled: consumption; (ii) Connecting to ‘Improved access to water, sewerage networks and yet water distribution performance unserved areas of Irbid that will and related sewerage disposal receive the new water in Irbid Governorate for host resources; (iii) Capacity communities and Syrian strengthening of YWC staff for refugees‘ aims at tackling operations and maintenance of challenges by promoting an the expanded and restructured innovative and inclusive networks and (iv) Improving approach combining the access to water for the development of infrastructures vulnerable communities, both and humanitarian activities for Syrian and Jordanian, thus water access by the most contributing to lowering the vulnerable households of water-service-related tensions, refugees and host communities. and hence the resilience of The main objective is to communities. develop infrastructures and capacities for the adequate The project ‘Providing delivery of water and sanitation Lebanese and Jordanian in the area of Irbid and Ramtha, communities hosting Syrian where the Syrian refugees and refugees with improved WASH host communities are facing the infrastructure and facilities at growing quantitative and community, institution, and qualitative deterioration of household level’ aims to build services. The overall the resilience of refugees and investment costs were host communities through a estimated at approximately participatory approach that 40 Million USD. increases access to effective water and sanitation services The specific objectives of the and improves health outcomes Action are: (i) Expanding and through improved hygienic improving the performance of environments and practices.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

The action will target both the existing Wadi Al-Arab Syrian refugees living in the wastewater treatment plant. targeted communities and the The overall investment costs communities hosting them who were estimated at have faced significant approximately 53 Million USD. challenges with increased A 2019 feasibility study entitled: populations. The overall ‘Feasibility Study for Bani investment costs were Kenaneh Water Supply and estimated at approximately Sanitation Project’ shows 6 Million USD. scenarios, which aim to A feasibility study from 2018, upgrade the existing water titled: ‘West Irbid Wastewater’ supply network and to provide aims to upgrade and construct for the first time a wastewater a wastewater infrastructure collection system and system in 15 villages, located in wastewater treatment West Irbid, by laying public infrastructure in the Bani sewer infrastructure that would Kenaneh District, meeting the serve a catchment area of expected demand of a 2045 approximately 21.9 km2 Jordanian population. The including, where necessary, the overall investment costs, installation of wastewater depending on the described pumping stations enabling the scenarios, were estimated at towns to connect effectively to approximately the wastewater network and to 71 – 124 Million USD

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Figure 6 Overview of planned water and wastewater projects in the Irbid Governorate. Source: Project Management Unit of the Jordanian Water Authority.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

2.2 Scenarios for future water demand and wastewater generation

The prioritization of integrated It was assumed that about 20% wastewater management concepts in does not end up as wastewater rural and suburban settlement areas in (EIB, 2019; USAID, 2018). the Northern Governorates will depend The Syrian refugees (based on on a potential return of the Syrian Table 1) will return by the year refugees to their home country in the 2025. near future. However, a large proportion of the population is The scenarios are: expected to remain in Jordan. Scenario 1: All Syrian refugees In the following we have therefore set will remain in Jordan (S1). out four potential scenarios (S1-S4) Scenario 2: All Syrian refugees based on different patterns of the will leave Jordan (S2). return of Syrian refugees to their home Scenario 3: 50% of the Syrian country in order to determine the refugees will leave Jordan (S3). consequences of the different ways in which the population might behave, on Scenario 4: 25% of the Syrian the water sector (drinking water refugees will leave Jordan (S4). demand and wastewater generation). The analyses of the four scenarios We analyzed the extent to which the show that if all Syrian refugees return planned investments by MWI are also to their home country this will have the designed for a population in 30 years' biggest impact on the water sector in time and whether these plans may be the Irbid and Mafraq Governorate, subject to any uncertainties. since the overall share of Syrian We have based our calculations on the refugees on the population was the following assumptions: highest in Jordan: Irbid: 20% and Mafraq: 38%, see Table 1. It must be Calculated annual population added here, however, that the majority increases by 2.1%. of the Syrian refugees in the Mafraq Projected water demand per Governorate are living in camps. This person per day: 80 L. means that the water and wastewater treatment is carried out directly in the camps.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Figure 7 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Irbid Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: annual population increase of 2.1%; water demand of 80L/p/d; Syrian refugees will start to return by 2025; S1: All Syrian refugees remain; S2: All Syrian refugees leave; S3: 50% of the Syrian refugees leave, and S4: 25% of the Syrian refugees leave.

An annual population increase of 2.1% about 65% in the Mafraq Governorate till the year 2045 will result in a water (Table 4). demand calculated to be about If fewer refugees return (50%), as 96 MCM/year in the Irbid Governorate, calculated in scenario three (S3: 30 MCM/year in the Mafraq Table 5) there will still be a clear Governorate and a calculated relaxation of stress on the water sector. wastewater generation of about The wastewater generation would still 62 MCM/year in the Irbid Governorate be reduced till the year 2045 by about and 19 MCM/year in the Mafraq 17% in the Irbid Governorate and by Governorate if all Syrian refugees about 34% in the Mafraq Governorate; remain in the two Governorates (S1; similarly, the water demand will also be Table 3; Figure 7; Figure 8). reduced by about 17% in the Irbid If all Syrian refugees were to leave by Governorate and by about 34% in the the year 2025 (S2) wastewater Mafraq Governorate (Table 5). generation will be massively reduced However, if an even smaller proportion up to the year 2045 by about 33% in (25%) return, as shown in scenario four the Irbid Governorate and by about (S4: Table 6), the effect on the 66% in the Mafraq Governorate; the wastewater generation and overall water demand will be reduced by about water demand will only be minor. 33% in the Irbid Governorate and by

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Figure 8 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Mafraq Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: as for Figure 7.

For the Ajloun (Figure 9) and Jarash Governorate, and water demand will be (Figure 10) Governorate the return of reduced by about 14% in the Ajloun the Syrian refugees has only a Governorate and about 8% in the marginal influence on the water sector, Jarash Governorate compared to S1 since the overall share of Syrian where all Syrian refugees will remain in refugees on the population is low with the Governorate (Table 4). Ajloun at 8% and Jarash at 5%, see If only a small proportion return as Table 1. However, even with this low shown in the two scenarios 3 and 4 share an effect can still be seen if all (S3: Table 5; S4: Table 6) there will be Syrian refugees leave by the year 2025 no significant effect on wastewater (S2). In that case, till the year 2045 generation and overall water demand. wastewater generation will be reduced by about 20% in the Ajloun Governorate and 8% in the Jarash

Figure 9 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Ajloun Governorate till 2045. Assumptions: as for Figure 7.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Figure 10 Consequences of scenarios (S1-S4) on the demand for drinking water and wastewater generation in the Jarash Governorate till 2045. Assumptions as for Figure 7.

As described above, the MWI has and that the pressure on the water conducted various large and costly sector will consequently continue to studies during recent years in order to intensify. secure the water supply and the The costs of the investments already wastewater treatment for the future in planned are enormous. It’s already Jordan. It is understandable that the obvious that the intended investments MWI focused predominantly on sub- will not meet the future demands and urban and urban areas of the Irbid solutions need to be implemented now. Governorate, which were most affected If the present water management by the influx of Syrian refugees. practices were to continue without However, although the Jordanian change, many aquifers will be lost Government developed three phases forever. It is clear that the investment of a Jordan Response Plan to the backlog and traditional decision paths Syrian Crisis (MoPIC, 2015; 2017; of conservative planning must be left 2019) little has been achieved so far. behind, and that regionally adapted No projects have been prioritized, the concepts for the future need to be planned investments are subject to a implemented. high degree of uncertainty and rural Technological changes are urgently areas were not considered. needed in order to mitigate the long- A large proportion of Syrian refugees term problems within the water sector. might be expected to remain in Jordan One solution could be an integrated and therefore it can be assumed that wastewater and water management the situation will develop approximately approach and the implementation of in accordance with scenarios S1 or S4

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

semi- and decentralized wastewater northern Jordan, seems to be target- treatment systems. This would both oriented. help to mitigate the extreme water Due to their special location, individual scarcity and protect groundwater villages in West-Irbid will not be resources. Such approaches can be connected to a channel-bound network used with great flexibility and can be in the future; communities and districts adapted to particular local conditions in rural areas like Bani Kenaneh will as either a temporary or permanent not be given priority in infrastructure solution. planning in the future due to high costs Within the framework of the planned and therefore alternative concepts are investment projects of the MWI, the necessary and need to be implementation of semi- and implemented immediately. decentralized systems, especially in

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

2.3 Challenges in the to a main sewer-network and most wastewater is stored in Northern cesspits which are not sealed Governorates properly and so contaminate groundwater resources. The main challenges identified in the Northern Governorates can be Water infrastructure and piping summarized as follows: networks are out-dated, leading to more than 50% of water Governorates like Irbid and often being lost as a result of Mafraq, have received the leakages, weak infrastructure highest numbers of Syrian and illegal consumption. refugees compared to the governorate’s overall Groundwater consumption population. clearly exceeds replacement.

This population increase has Most CWWTPs do not meet the affected public services. There respective irrigation / discharge has been a - limits and so contribute to the contamination of water o significant increase in resources. water demand, associated with - Existing wastewater treatment plants cannot meet actual and o increased local water future demands. shortages, - Planned investments try to o putting an enormous pressure on the sewage secure the water supply and the network and - wastewater treatment, mainly in urban areas. o wastewater treatment plants. Planned investments will not meet future demands. Benefits from reduced needs for irrigation water were offset Most treated wastewater is by the freshwater needs of discharged from the region and thousands of Syrian refugees. is not used locally.

Large areas of the Northern Concepts for rural areas are Governorate are not connected absent.

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3. References

Abu Hamad, B., Jones, N., Samuels, F., Gercama, I., Presler-Marshall, E. and Plank, G. 2017 A promise of tomorrow: The effects of UNHCR and UNICEF cash assistance on Syrian refugees in Jordan, p. 132, UNICEF, UNHCR. AFD 2018 Jordan: Water to Smooth Relations Between Locals and Refugees, p. 5, Agence Française de Développement. Al-Assa'd, T. and Sauer, J. 2010. The performance of water utilities in Jordan. Water Science & Technology 62(4), 803-808. Alshoubaki, W.e. and Harris, M. 2018. The impact of Syrian refugees on Jordan: A framework for analysis. Journal of International Studies 11(2), 154-179. Baylouny, A.M. and Klingseis, S.J. 2018. Water Thieves or Political Catalysts? Syrian Refugees in Jordan and Lebanon. Middle East Policy 25(1), 104- 123. Breulmann, M., Brückner, F., Toll, M., van Afferden, M., Becker, M.-Y., Al-Subeh, A., Subah, A. and Müller, R.A. 2020a Vulnerable Water Resources in Jordan: Hot Spots, p. 51, Published by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation with support from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ and the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Amman – Leipzig – Hannover. Breulmann, M., Müller, R.A., Al-Subeh, A., Subah, A. and van Afferden, M. 2020b Reuse of Treated Wastewater and Biosolids in Jordan – Nationwide Evaluation, p. 100, Published by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ with support from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Amman – Leipzig. CARE 2018 A Summary: 8 Years Into Exile - How Urban Syrian Refugees, Non- Syrian Refugees and Vulnerable Host Communities in Jordan are Coping and Meeting Challenges, Eight Years Into the Syria Crisis, p. 12, European Union, German Humanitarian Assistance; Australian Government; United States of Amerika; Canada; Ford Foundation, Amman, Jordan. Carrion, D. 2015 Syrian Refugees in Jordan Confronting Difficult Truths, p. 16, Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United Kingdom. Dhingra, R. 2020 Refugees at Risk in Jordan’s Response to COVID-19, Middle East Report Online; https://merip.org/2020/04/refugees-at-risk-in-jordans- response-to-covid-19/. EIB 2019 Feasibility Study for Bani Kenaneh Water Supply and Sanitation Project: Gender Analysis - Action Plan, p. 30, This Technical Assistance operation is financed by FEMIP Trust Fund / Climate Action Envelope CAMENA (TA2017032 JO FTF) and supported by the European Investment Bank; The EU Bank; European Union and UK Aid and was

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coordinated by engicon, Atkins Acuity and hcl Consultants, Amman, Jordan. Farishta, A. (2014) The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan’s Water Resources and Water Managenent Planning, Columbia University. Halalsheh, M., Kassab, G., Shatanawi, K. and Al-Shareef, M. (2018) Safe Use of Wastewater in Agriculture: From Concept to Implementation. Hettiarachchi, H., Ardakanian, R. (ed), pp. 101-130, Springer International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland. Hussein, H. 2018. Tomatoes, tribes, bananas, and businessmen: An analysis of the shadow state and of the politics of water in Jordan. Environmental Science & Policy 84, 170-176. Hussein, H., Natta, A., Yehya, A.A.K. and Hamadna, B. 2020. Syrian Refugees, Water Scarcity, and Dynamic Policies: How Do the New Refugee Discourses Impact Water Governance Debates in Lebanon and Jordan? Water 12(2). JIF 2018 Syrian Refugees in Jordan: A Protection overview, p. 22, The Jordan INGO Forum (JIF), Amman, Jordan. JS 286 2005 Jordanian Standard for Water — Drinking Water, Jordan Standards and Metrological Organization, Amman, Jordan. JS 893 2006 Jordanian Standard for Water — Reclaimed Domestic Wastewater, Jordan Standards and Metrological Organization, Amman, Jordan. Melloni, G., Nguyen, A. and Tobea, D. 2013 WASH in Host Communities in Jordan: An Interagency assessment, p. 55, ACTED, Mercy Corps, Oxfam, Relief International and UNICEF. MercyCorps 2013 Mapping of Host Community-Refugee Tensions in Mafraq and Ramtha, Jordan, p. 23, MercyCorps. MoPIC 2015 Jordan Response Plan for the Syria Crisis 2016-2018, Ministry of Planning and International Cooperration, Amman, Jordan. MoPIC 2017 Jordan Response Plan for the Syria Crisis 2018-2020, Ministry of Planning and International Cooperration, Amman, Jordan. MoPIC 2019 Jordan Response Plan for the Syrian Crisis 2019, Ministry of Planning and International Cooperration, Amman, Jordan. MoPIC 2020 Jordan Response Plan for the Syrian Crisis 2020-2022, p. 101, Ministry of Planning and International Cooperration, Amman, Jordan. Muller, M.F., Yoon, J., Gorelick, S.M., Avisse, N. and Tilmant, A. 2016. Impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on land use and transboundary freshwater resources. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(52), 14932-14937. MWI 2018 Jordan Water Sector-Facts and Figures 2017, Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Amman, Jordan.

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4. Annexes

Table 4 Consequences of scenario two (S2): ‘All Syrian refugees leave’ on the drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. Assumptions: as for Table 3.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Table 5 Consequences of scenario three (S3): ‘50% of the Syrian refugees leave on the drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. Assumptions: as for Table 3.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Table 6 Consequences of scenario four (S4): ‘25% of the Syrian refugees leave’. on the drinking water demand and wastewater generation in the Northern Governorates Irbid, Mafraq, Ajloun and Jarash for the years 2015 – 2045. Assumptions: as for Table 3.

Influx of Syrian Refugees in Jordan | Effects on the Water Sector

Publisher Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ 04318 | Leipzig | Germany [email protected] | www.ufz.de

With support from Ministry of Water and Irrigation 11181 | Amman | Jordan www.mwi.gov.jo