Tampa-Hillsborough Expressway Authority Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations
September 10, 2015 “TIME” Program 2
• Transporta on Interface for Modeling Evacua ons or “TIME” program • Use by the State of Florida Statewide • Has wide acceptance of assump ons and processes among stakeholders • Has an extensive history of applica ons for policy and opera onal planning • The “TIME” model was just update 2015 • CDM Smith is the developer of the program
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 TIME Model Assumptions 3
• Evacua on Levels “C”, “D” and “E” • Simula on Year 2020 Popula on Distribu on and demographics • I-4 and Selmon Expressway are Contraflow facili es • University Popula on – Fall/Spring • Shelters Open – Primary • Tampa Bay Region o Hillsborough , Manatee, Pasco, and Pinellas • Pinellas and Hillsborough Coun es Evacuate • Response Curve – 12 Hours • Evacua on Phasing – Begins in One-Hour • Selmon West Extension vs. No-Build Alterna ve
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Levels 4
Evacua on Levels are defined by storm de height (feet). Storm de is the rise in water level caused by the combina on of regular des and a storm surge.
Potential Storm Tide Height (ft.) Evacuation Hillsborough Pinellas Level County County C 21 19 D 29 26 E 33 29
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 5
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 6
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Selected Analysis Areas 7
• Tampa Bay Bridge Crossings: Courtney Campbell Causeway (SR 60), Howard Frankland Bridge (I-275), and Gandy Bridge (US 92)
• Gandy Boulevard Area includes Gandy Boulevard, plus north/ south cross streets (Westshore Blvd, Manha an Avenue and Dale Mabry Highway)
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Level C 8 • Over 810,000 people evacuated from Hillsborough and Pinellas Coun es • Over 70,000 vehicles cross Tampa 11% Bay 9% 84% • Selmon West Extension effect on 81% Tampa Bay crossings 5% o Traffic shi s from the Howard Frankland 10% Bridge (I-275) and Courtney Campbell Causeway (SR 60) to the Gandy Bridge (US 92) as displayed on graphic to the le o Despite a traffic increase from 4,200 to No Build 6,900 vehicles on the Gandy Bridge both conges on and delays are reduced on Build (Gandy Gandy Boulevard Connector) o Conges on is also reduced on the Howard Frankland Bridge
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Level C 9
Traffic Volume Change with Gandy Connector (%) -75%
-69% 199%* -36%
Gandy Boulevard -40%
Manhattan Avenue Manhattan DaleMabry Highway Westshore Boulevard Westshore * Minor Arterial with the lowest traffic volumes
• The Selmon West Extension shi s pass-through traffic from surface roadway to elevated lanes • The South Tampa/Gandy Boulevard network (displayed above) o Traffic volumes are reduced by 37% o Queue mes are reduced by 9% o Westshore Boulevard experiences a 99% reduc on in queue me
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Level D 10 • Over 1,020,000 people evacuated from Hillsborough and Pinellas Coun es • Over 87,000 vehicles cross Tampa 9% Bay 8% 81% • Selmon West Extension effect on 77% Tampa Bay crossings 10% o Traffic shi s from the Howard Frankland 15% Bridge (I-275) and Courtney Campbell Causeway (SR 60) to the Gandy Bridge (US 92) as displayed on graphic to the le o Despite a traffic increase from 8,600 to 13,300 vehicles on the Gandy Bridge, both No Build conges on and delays are reduced on Gandy Boulevard Build (Gandy Connector) o Conges on is also reduced on the Howard Frankland Bridge
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Level D 11
Traffic Volume Change with Gandy Connector (%) -70%
-92% -58%* -13%
Gandy Boulevard -58%
Manhattan Avenue Manhattan Westshore Boulevard Westshore DaleMabry Highway * Minor Arterial with the lowest traffic volumes • Selmon West Extension shi s pass-through traffic from surface roadway to elevated lanes • The South Tampa/Gandy Boulevard network (displayed above) o Traffic volumes are reduced by 53% o Queue mes are reduced by 38% o Westshore Boulevard experiences a 92% reduc on in queue me Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Level E 12 • Over 1,290,000 people evacuated from Hillsborough and Pinellas Coun es
10% • Over 99,000 vehicles cross Tampa Bay 10% 77% • Gandy Connector effect on Tampa Bay 72% crossings 13% o Traffic shi s from the Howard Frankland 18% Bridge (I-275) to the Gandy Bridge (US 92) as displayed on graphic to the le o Despite a traffic increase from 12,700 to 18,400 vehicles on the Gandy Bridge, both No Build conges on and delays are reduced on Gandy Boulevard Build (Gandy Connector) o Conges on is also reduced on the Howard Frankland Bridge
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Level E 13
Traffic Volume Change with Gandy Connector (%) -59%
-81% 374%* -9%
Gandy Boulevard -43%
Manhattan Avenue Manhattan Westshore Boulevard Westshore DaleMabry Highway * Minor Arterial with the lowest traffic volumes • Gandy Connector shi s pass-through traffic from surface roadway to elevated lanes • The South Tampa/Gandy Boulevard network (displayed above) o Traffic volumes are reduced by 48% o Queue mes are reduced by 92% o Westshore Boulevard experiences an 81% reduc on in queue me Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Overall Results 14
• Selmon West Extension shi s pass-through traffic from surface roadway to elevated lanes resul ng in:
o Recued conges on for local traffic o Reduced delay for local traffic
• Selmon West Extension also helps to spread Tampa Bay traffic across all three east-west bridges, benefi ng all three
• Conges on and delay benefits within the South Tampa/Gandy Boulevard Network become greater as need increases providing more benefit to local evacuees when it is needed most
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Demand 15
Storm Level “C” for No-Build and Build Scenarios
Hillsborough County Pinellas County Popula on 397,492 414,962 Shelter Demand 26,231 29,029 Vehicle Trips 203,656 243,029
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Demand 16
Storm Level “D” for No-Build and Build Scenarios
Hillsborough County Pinellas County Popula on 503,978 516,404 Shelter Demand 38,739 36,160 Vehicle Trips 258,512 298,794
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015 Evacuation Demand 17
Storm Level “E” for No-Build and Build Scenarios
Hillsborough County Pinellas County Popula on 661,625 629,992 Shelter Demand 56,432 44,602 Vehicle Trips 338,373 359,867
Modeling & Assessment of the Selmon Expressway for Regional Evacuations | September 10, 2015