MARKET SURVEY COMMERCIAL | INDUSTRIAL, WAREHOUSE, LOGISTICS HAMBURG 2017/Q1-2 GrossmannQ2 & Berger’s promise: Market surveys. COMMERCIAL | INDUSTRIAL, WAREHOUSE, LOGISTICS HAMBURG 2017/Q1-2 KEY FaCTS | INDUSTRIAL 220,000 m² | -14 % year-on-year change 20 % | +5 pp year-on-year change 5.80 €/m² | +1.8 % year-on-year change 4.80 €/m² | 0 % year-on-year change 4.9 % | -0.5 pp year-on-year change pp = percentage point Take-up of space Share of owner-occupiers Premium rent mth (net) Average rent mth (net) (Net) Prime yield more active on the market, increasing their share of total take-up “There has been considerably less from 15 to 20% (45,000 m²). Apex Internationale Spedition, a for- immediately available logistics warder, signed the biggest rental agreement of the 2nd quarter for space on the “Glinnkamp” industrial park. This mid-sized firm space on the market in 2017.” took some 17,100 m² of storage space and around 2,000 m² of of- fices (Wilhelm-Bergner-Strasse 1-11, East Environs sub-market.) Felix Krumreich | Consultant for industrial, warehouse The biggest contract in the 1st half year remained that signed in and logistics properties the 1st quarter by Hamburg State Opera for some 17,300 m² of space in the future “Neuer Huckepackbahnhof” development in the “Billebogen” district (Billstrasse, Hamburg East). From 2018 TAKE-UP OF SPACE the opera house intends to house costumes, scenery and work- shops in the premises. Weak second quarter Take-up of space At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2017 the letting figures for in- 2013–2017/Q1-2 | in 000s m² | incl. owner-occupiers dustrial, warehouse and logistics properties in Hamburg and its environs were very weak, and the exact opposite of the good 10-year average (2007-2016): 1st-quarter results. From April to June only 70,000 m² of space approx. 508,000 m² was let or taken up by an owner-occupier. In the 1st half year a total volume of 220,000 m² of industrial, warehouse and logistics properties were let. Thus the best-ever 1st quarter on record was followed by the worst-ever 2nd quarter. The overall decline in the 1st half year was 14%, which was in fact relatively moderate considering that in 2017 there was far less immediately available Q2 logistics space on the market than a year ago. In addition, it now 70 takes appreciably longer to negotiate agreements. 450 453 590 665 220 61 agreements were signed, which translated into an overall year on year drop of 31%. However, owner-occupiers were far 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017/Q1-2 Source: Grossmann & Berger Research www.grossmann-berger.de | page 2 COMMERCIAL | INDUSTRIAL, WAREHOUSE, LOGISTICS HAMBURG 2017/Q1-2 SELECTED TOP CONTRACTS 2017/Q1-2 1. Hamburg State Opera | “Neuer Huckepackbahnhof”, Billstrasse | Hamburg | ca. 17,300 m² 2. Apex Internationale Spedition | “Glinnkamp”, Wilhelm-Bergner-Strasse 1-11 | Glinde | ca. 17,100 m² 3. Transgourmet Deutschland | “Gewerbepark Obergeorgswerder”, Beim Schröderschen Hof 7 | Hamburg | ca. 15,000 m² 4. Dirk Vollmer Lagerei und Spedition | “VGP Park Hamburg”, Oldendorfer Strasse | Neu Wulmstorf | ca. 13,700 m² 5. Kühne + Nagel | Altenwerder Hauptstrasse 11-23 | Hamburg | ca. 10,800 m² 6. UTI Deutschland | “Logistikpark Eurolog Rade”, Otto-Lilienthal-Strasse 1a-d | Wenzendorf | ca. 9,500 m² 7. Storebest | Irwin-Helford-Strasse 2 | Elmenhorst | ca. 9,200 m² 8. Kaufland | Hörgensweg 6 | Hamburg | ca. 8,000 m² 9. Specialist for tyre logistics | Bredowstrasse 25 | Hamburg | ca. 8,000 m² 10. Glomm Spedition | Fritz-Reuter-Strasse | Neu Wulmstorf | ca. 7,800 m² Take-up of space The two size categories 5,001 m² to 10,000 m² and upwards of 2017/Q1-2 | in m² | by size and no. of lettings 10,000 m² together accounted for 67% of total take-up (146,000 Take-up of space m²) in 15 agreements. In the same quarter a year earlier these No. of lettings categories posted a total of 51% of take-up. Year on year fewer agreements were signed in the category of 5,001 m² or more; here the total fell from 15 to ten, whereas the number of agreements for more than 10,001 m² soared from one to five. As in the prior year the logistics/forwarding sector accounted for 47% of total take-up of space (102,300 m²). Nine of the 15 biggest agreements for more than 5,001 m² were signed by logistics companies. The biggest new rental contract signed by a logistics company was the 8,000 m² taken in the 2nd quarter 22 17 7 10 5 by a specialist for tyre logistics in the Billbrook district (Hamburg East). The retail/trade and industrial/skilled trades sectors took 5 % 15 % 13 % 33 % 34 % 11,000 34,000 29,000 72,000 74,000 practically unchanged shares of the total, accounting for 26% (up up to up to up to up to over from 23%) and 18% (up from 14%). Furniture retailers POCO En- 1,000 3,000 5,000 10,000 10,001 richtungsmärkte accounted for retail’s biggest 2nd-quarter lease Source: Grossmann & Berger Research with 5,000 m² of hall space and 500 m² of offices in the district of Tonndorf (Hamburg North East). The company is planning to locate a warehouse here from which it can supply its four furniture Take-up of space discounters in Hamburg, in particular the store in Wandsbek. 2017/Q1-2 | by industry Year on year there was very little change in the way that take-up of space was divided between the sub-markets. Since four of the Other 9% agreements for more than 5,001 m² were concluded in Hamburg East and five in South West Environs, these two sub-markets Production/ industry/ again took the highest and second-highest shares of the market, trades & crafts 18% at 29% and 23% respectively. Nor was there much change in the 47% Logistics way take-up was split between the areas inside and outside city borders, with 55% within the city and 45% in the environs. Trade 26% Source: Grossmann & Berger Research www.grossmann-berger.de | page 3 COMMERCIAL | INDUSTRIAL, WAREHOUSE, LOGISTICS HAMBURG 2017/Q1-2 RENTS Premium rents slightly higher A slight increase in the gap between premium and average rents Take-up of space was noted compared with the prior year. Whereas the premium 2017/Q1-2 | in m² | by rent and no. of lettings rent climbed ten cents to €5.80/m²/month, the average rent re- Take-up of space mained at a stable €4.80/m²/month. No. of lettings INVESTMENT Transaction volume as yet meagre Although the national market for investments in German logistics properties posted record highs, the volume traded in Hamburg accounted for a meagre 3% of the total. The biggest transaction was the portfolio sale of three properties and a plot of land in the 3 14 8 4 10 10 11 Langenhorn district (Essener Bogen 7, 17 and 89), which PGIM Real Estate acquired from Rockspring for a price in the dou- 6 % 31 % 8 % 11 % 6 % 20 % 18 % 13,400 67,800 18,500 24,600 12,100 45,000 38,600 ble-digit millions. up to up to up to up to over Owner- n/a 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 5.50 occup. Year on year the prime net yields* dropped further. Returns on Source: Grossmann & Berger Research prime industrial, warehouse and logistics properties fell from 5.4% to 4.9%. Premium and average rent 2013–2017/Q2 | in €/m²/mth (net) OUTLOOK Premium rent New builds in the pipeline 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.60 5.70 Because there are several new build developments in the southern part of Hamburg Port in the pipeline, we expect to see stable letting activity in the second half year, although it will not 4.90 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.60 be as high as last year, when a new record was set. Overall, the Average rent annual take-up of industrial, warehouse and logistics premises in Hamburg and its environs is likely to be somewhere between 450,000 and 500,000 m². 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017/Q2 Source: Grossmann & Berger Research Prime yields 2013–2017/Q2 | (net) initial yield | in % 6.5 6.3 Logistics 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.1 3.7 Office and commercial buildings 3.3 3.3 3.6 (Commercial buildings) * To make figures more readily comparable, Grossmann & Berger switched from stating initial prime yields at their gross rate to the net rate 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017/Q2 as of the 4th quarter of 2016. Source: Grossmann & Berger Research www.grossmann-berger.de | page 4 COMMERCIAL | INDUSTRIAL, WAREHOUSE, LOGISTICS Groß Niendorf Hohenfelde Kaltenkirchen Sievershütten HAMBURG 2017/Q1-2 Reinfeld Lutzhorn 21 Bad Oldesloe Horst 7 Itzstedt Sülfeld 23 Langeln OVERVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL/LOGISTICS SUB-MARKETNaheS HAMBURG AND ENVIRON1 S Barmstedt 2017/Q1-2 Henstedt-Ulzburg Westerau Pölitz Elmshorn Hemdingen Elmenhorst Beyren Kayhude Bargteheide ENVIRONS Tangstedt NORTH-EAST Ellerhop Quickborn Wohlsdorf- Ohlstedt ENVIRONS Steinburg Ammersbek NORTH-WEST Duvenstedt Tornesch Norderstedt Todendorf 1 Uetersen Lemsahl- Mellingstedt Tangstedt Schönberg Moorrege 7 Bergstedt Pinneberg 23 Ahrensburg Poppen- Hoisdorf Langenhorn büttel Hummels- Rellingen büttel Volksdorf Großhansdorf CITY Sasel Ellerbek Lütjensee NORTH- Wellingsbüttel Fuhlsbüttel Schnellsen Halstenbek WEST Holm Niendorf Ohlsdorf Rahlstedt Steils- Bramfeld Eidelstedt Groß- Hettlingen Schenefeld borstel hoop Farmsen- Großensee Trittau Alsterdorf Berne Stapelfeld Rissen Hamfelde Lurup Lokstedt Eppen- Winterhude CITY NORTH-EAST dorf Barmbek- Linau Stellingen Nord Tonndorf 1 Sülldorf Hoheluft g West Ost Barmbek- Dulsber Iserbrook Bahrenfeld Osdorf Harveste- Süd Wandsbek Barsbüttel hude Eimsbüttel Uhlen- Jenfeld Wedel horst Witzhave CITY WEST Rother- Eilbek Marienthal 24 Groß- Altona- Stern- 24 Kasseburg Blankenese Flottbek Nord baum Hohen- schanze felde Hamm St.