FSD1019

Polling in Finnish Presidential Elections 1994, Part 1

Codebook

FINNISH SOCIAL SCIENCE DATA ARCHIVE The bibliographic citation for this codebook: Polling in Finnish Presidential Elections 1994, Part 1 [codebook]. Finnish Social Science Data Archive [producer and distributor], 2018.

This codebook has been generated from the version 1.0 (14.8.2000) of the data.

Finnish Social Science Data Archive FIN-33014 University of Tampere

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$ Koodikirjoitin.py v35 @ 2018-01-25 12:03:08.802000 $ To the reader

This codebook is part of the data FSD1019 archived at the FSD (Finnish Social Science Data Archive).The dataset has been described in as much detail as possible in Finnish and English. Variable frequencies, variable and value labels, and missing values have been checked. If neces- sary, the data have been anonymised. The data and its creators shall be cited in all publications and presentations for which the data have been used. The bibliographic citation may be in the form suggested by the archive or in the form required by the publication. The bibliographic citation suggested by the archive:

Borg, Sami (University of Tampere): Polling in Finnish Presidential Elections 1994, Part 1 [dataset]. Version 1.0 (2000-08-14). Finnish Social Science Data Archive [distributor]. http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi:fsd:T-FSD1019

The user shall notify the archive of all publications where she or he has used the data. The original data creators and the archive bear no responsibility for any results or interpretations arising from the reuse of the data. The codebook contains information on data content, structure and data collection, and includes a list of publications wholly or in part based on the data, according to publication informa- tion received by the FSD. The second part of the codebook contains information on variables: question texts, response options, and frequencies. The third part contains indexes. Variable distributions presented in this codebook have been generated from the SPSS files. Dis- tribution tables present variable values, frequencies (n), frequency percentages (%), and valid percentages (v. %) which take into account missing data. All distributions are unweighted. If the data contain weight variables, these will be found at the end of the variables list. In some cases frequency distributions have been substituted by descriptive statistics. Categorised responses to open-ended questions are not always included in the codebook. Distributions may contain missing data. The note "System missing (SYSMIS)" refers to missing observations (e.g. a re- spondent has not answered all questions) whereas "Missing (User missing)" refers to data the user has defined as missing. For example, the user may decide to code answer alternatives ’don’t want to say’ or ’can’t say’ as missing data. The codebook may contain attached files, the most common one being the questionnaire.

Contents

1 Study description 1 1.1 Titles ...... 1 1.2 Subject description ...... 1 1.3 Structure and collection of the data ...... 2 1.4 Use of data ...... 3

2 Variables 5

3 Indexes 23 3.1 Variables in the order of occurrence ...... 23 3.2 Variables in alphabetical order ...... 25

A Abbreviations of Finnish Political Parties 27

B Questionnaire in Finnish 29

i

Chapter 1

Study description

1.1 Titles

Titles and data version: Polling in Finnish Presidential Elections 1994, Part 1 Titles and data version in Finnish: Kannatusmittaustutkimus 1994, osa 1 This codebook has been generated from the version 1.0 (14.8.2000) of the data.

1.2 Subject description

Authoring entity

Borg, Sami (University of Tampere)

Copyright statement for the data

According to the agreement between FSD and the depositor.

Depositor

Borg, Sami (University of Tampere)

Date of deposit

9.8.1999

Keywords parliamentary elections; political behaviour; political support; presidential elections; public opinion polls; voting; voting behaviour

1 1. Study description

Topic Classification

Fields of Science Classification: social sciences CESSDA Classification: elections; political behaviour and attitudes

Series description

The data belong to the series:

Individual datasets

Individual datasets that do not belong to any series.

Abstract

The dataset is the first part of a survey studying voter opinions on polling, and the impact of polling on the 1994 presidential elections in Finland. The respondents were asked by what name they call polls measuring support for the presidential candidates and political parties. Next questions asked when they had voted in the first round of the presidential elections, how often they had seen poll ratings of different candidates in the media, and whether they had discussed these ratings with others. Views on to what extent polls affected people’s choice of candidate were studied. Several questions focused on the impact of polls on the respondents’ decision to vote in the elections, voting tactics, and choice of candidate. The respondents were asked how reliable they had thought the polls published before the first round were. The respondents’ voting behaviour was studied by asking whether they had voted in the first round, whom they had voted for, whether they had voted in advance in the second round, and how certain they were that they would vote for the candidate they supported at the time of the interview. They were also asked what party they would vote for if the parliamentary elections were held at that time. Background variables included the respondent’s gender, age, basic and vocational education, economic activity, province of residence, and municipality type.

1.3 Structure and collection of the data

Country: Finland Geographic coverage: Finland Analysis or observation unit type: Individual Universe: Enfranchised Finnish population living in Finland. (18 years of age before the year 1994), excluding the Åland Islands Collection date: 26.1.1994 – 27.1.1994 Data collector(s): Gallup Finland

2 1.4. Use of data

Mode of data collection: Telephone interview Type of research instrument: Structured questionnaire Time period covered: 1994 Time method of the data collection: Longitudinal: Trend/Repeated cross-section Number of variables and cases: The data contain 39 variables and 1005 cases. Sampling procedure: Probability: Stratified On the basis of sex and age group in accordance with Gallup Finland’s routine procedures. A separate sample from FSD1020 (Polling in Finnish Presidential Elections 1994, part 2)

1.4 Use of data

Related publications

Borg, Sami (1994). Mittaus päivässä: tutkimus vuonna 1994 julkistetuista Suomen presidentin- vaalien kannatusmittauksista. Helsinki: Oikeusministeriö. Oikeusministeriön lainvalmisteluosas- ton julkaisu, 6/1994. Borg, Sami & Ruostetsaari, Ilkka (2002). Suuret ikäluokat ja valta. Hyvinvointikatsaus 1/2002, 51-58. Moisio, Janne (2015). Kannatusmittausten vaikutus strategiseen äänestämiseen Suomen presi- dentinvaaleissa 1994-2012. Turku: Turun yliopisto. Valtio-opin pro gradu -tutkielma. Updated list of publications in the study description at

https://services.fsd.uta.fi/catalogue/FSD1019?lang=en&study_language=en

Related studies

FSD1020 Polling in Finnish Presidential Elections 1994, Part 2

Location of the data collection

Finnish Social Science Data Archive

Weighting

There are no weight variables in the data.

Restrictions

The dataset is (B) available for research, teaching and study.

3

Chapter 2

Variables

[FSD_NO] FSD study number

Question

FSD study number

Descriptive statistics

statistic value number of valid cases 1005 minimum 1019.00 maximum 1019.00 mean 1019.00 standard deviation 0.00

[FSD_VR] FSD edition number

Question

FSD edition number

Descriptive statistics

statistic value number of valid cases 1005 minimum 1.00 maximum 1.00 mean 1.00 standard deviation 0.00

5 2. Variables

[FSD_PRO] FSD processing level

Question

Detailed and specific data description in Finnish and English. Variable frequencies, filter vari- ables, variable and value labels, and missing values are checked. If necessary, the data are anonymised.

Frequencies

label value n % v. % A (see codebook) 1 1005 100.0 100.0 B (see codebook) 2 0 0.0 0.0 C (data hasn’t been checked at FSD) 3 0 0.0 0.0 1005 100.0 100.0

[FSD_ID] FSD case id

Question

FSD case id

Descriptive statistics

statistic value number of valid cases 1005 minimum 1.00 maximum 1005.00 mean 503.00 standard deviation 290.26

[Q1] Sex of the respondent

Question

Sex of the respondent

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Female 1 505 50.2 50.2

(continued on next page)

6 Q3

(cont. from previous page)

label value n % v. % Male 2 500 49.8 49.8 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q2_1] Age of the respondent

Question

Age of the respondent

Descriptive statistics

statistic value number of valid cases 1005 minimum 18.00 maximum 89.00 mean 43.98 standard deviation 16.10

[Q2_2] Age groups

Question

Age groups

Frequencies

label value n % v. % -40 yrs. 1 501 49.9 49.9 41- yrs. 2 504 50.1 50.1 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q3] The actual election day for the second round of the presidential elec- tions is 6th February. Have you already voted in advance in the second round?

Question

Have you voted in advance in the second round of the presidential elections?

Frequencies

7 2. Variables

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 1 0.1 – Yes 1 110 10.9 11.0 No 2 894 89.0 89.0 I don’t want to say 3 0 0.0 0.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q4] How certain are you about going to vote in the second round of the elections?

Question

How certain are you about going to vote in the second round of the elections?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 110 10.9 – Absolutely certain 1 720 71.6 80.4 Fairly certain 2 108 10.7 12.1 Consider it more likely that you shall not vote 3 34 3.4 3.8 You’re certain that you shall not vote 4 24 2.4 2.7 Can’t say 5 9 0.9 1.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q5] For which candidate would you vote if the elections were held right now?

Question

For which candidate would you vote if the elections were held now?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Martti Ahtisaari 1 361 35.9 35.9 Elisabeth Rehn 2 398 39.6 39.6 I would’nt vote 3 31 3.1 3.1 I can’t say 4 215 21.4 21.4 1005 100.0 100.0

8 Q8

[Q6] How certain are you that you would really vote the candidate you now support in the second round?

Question

How certain are you that you would really vote in the second round the candidate you now support?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 326 32.4 – Absolutely certain 1 533 53.0 78.5 Fairly certain 2 124 12.3 18.3 Not very certain 3 10 1.0 1.5 Not certain at all 4 10 1.0 1.5 Cannot say 5 2 0.2 0.3 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q7] Did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections?

Question

Did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Yes 1 934 92.9 92.9 No 2 70 7.0 7.0 Don’t want to say 3 1 0.1 0.1 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q8] For whom did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections?

Question

For whom did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections?

Frequencies

9 2. Variables

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 71 7.1 – Martti Ahtisaari 1 202 20.1 21.6 Sulo Aittoniemi 2 7 0.7 0.7 Claes Andersson 3 35 3.5 3.7 Raimo Ilaskivi 4 105 10.4 11.2 Toimi Kankaanniemi 5 8 0.8 0.9 Keijo Korhonen 6 40 4.0 4.3 Eeva Kuuskoski 7 12 1.2 1.3 Elisabeth Rehn 8 193 19.2 20.7 Pekka Tiainen 9 0 0.0 0.0 Pertti Virtanen 10 25 2.5 2.7 Paavo Väyrynen 11 122 12.1 13.1 Don’t want to say 12 185 18.4 19.8 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q9_1] What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Opinion poll

Question

What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Opinion poll

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 922 91.7 – Mentioned 1 83 8.3 100.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q9_2] What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Survey on political sup- port

Question

What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Survey on political support

Frequencies

10 Q9_4

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 1000 99.5 – Mentioned 1 5 0.5 100.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q9_3] What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Gallup-survey

Question

What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Gallup-survey

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 508 50.5 – Mentioned 1 497 49.5 100.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q9_4] What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Something else

Question

What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Something else

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 946 94.1 – Mentioned 1 59 5.9 100.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

11 2. Variables

[Q9_5] What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Cannot say

Question

What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Cannot say

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 635 63.2 – Mentioned 1 370 36.8 100.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q10] When did you vote in the first round of the elections?

Question

When did you vote in the first round of the elections?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 72 7.2 – In advance 1 363 36.1 38.9 On the actual election day, about 9-12 o’clock 2 180 17.9 19.3 On the actual election day, about 12-18 o’clock 3 310 30.8 33.2 On the actual election day, about 18-20 o’clock 4 80 8.0 8.6 Can’t say/ Don’t want to say 5 0 0.0 0.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q11] At what stage did you make your final decision about which candi- date to vote for in the first round of the elections?

Question

At what stage did you make your final decision about which candidate to vote for in the first round of the elections?

Frequencies

12 Q13

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 72 7.2 – In the voting booth or a few hours before voting 1 56 5.6 6.0 Same day you went to vote 2 42 4.2 4.5 Some days before voting 3 133 13.2 14.3 About a week or two before going to vote 4 201 20.0 21.5 About a month or two before going to vote 5 197 19.6 21.1 My mind was made up even earlier than this 6 294 29.3 31.5 I can’t say 7 10 1.0 1.1 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q12] How often do you remember having seen or heard estimates of the election support of the various candidates on TV, in the newspapers or on the radio?

Question

How often do you remember having seen or heard estimates of the election support of the various candidates on TV, in the newspapers or on the radio?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % More often than 10 times 1 425 42.3 42.3 6-10 times 2 311 30.9 30.9 3-5 times 3 144 14.3 14.3 1 or 2 times 4 43 4.3 4.3 Not at all 5 16 1.6 1.6 I can’t say 6 66 6.6 6.6 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q13] How often did you discuss the results of the gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections among your family, at the work place, with friends or other people?

Question

How often did you discuss the results of the gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections among your family, at the work place, with friends or other people?

Frequencies

13 2. Variables

label value n % v. % Almost every day 1 361 35.9 35.9 About once a week 2 312 31.0 31.0 Not very often 3 197 19.6 19.6 Not at all 4 116 11.5 11.5 I can’t say 5 19 1.9 1.9 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q14] If you think about the voters’ choice of candidate in the first round of the elections, how much do you think the gallup-surveys affected their choice?

Question

If you think about the voters’ choice of candidates in the first round of the elections, how much do you think the gallup-surveys affected their choice?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % A lot 1 209 20.8 20.8 Somewhat 2 631 62.8 62.8 Not at all 3 121 12.0 12.0 I can’t say 4 44 4.4 4.4 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q15] How did they affect your own choice of candidate?

Question

How did they affect your own choice of candidate?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % A lot 1 15 1.5 1.5 Somewhat 2 116 11.5 11.5 Not at all 3 862 85.8 85.8 I can’t say 4 12 1.2 1.2 1005 100.0 100.0

14 Q18

[Q16] The Gallup-surveys strengthened my view that my candidate had good chances to get elected to the second round of the elections.

Question

The Gallup-surveys strengthened my view that my candidate had good chances to get to the second round of the elections.

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 71 7.1 – Yes 1 370 36.8 39.6 No 2 545 54.2 58.4 Cannot say 3 19 1.9 2.0 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q17] I voted for my candidate expressly because the Gallup-surveys did’nt promise him/her success in the elections.

Question

I voted for my candidate expressly because the Gallup-surveys did’nt promise him/her success in the elections.

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 71 7.1 – Yes 1 68 6.8 7.3 No 2 842 83.8 90.1 Cannot say 3 24 2.4 2.6 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q18] The success of my candidate in the Gallup-surveys was an incentive for me to go to vote.

Question

The success of my candidate in the Gallup-surveys was an incentive for me to go to vote.

15 2. Variables

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 71 7.1 – Yes 1 135 13.4 14.5 No 2 788 78.4 84.4 Cannot say 3 11 1.1 1.2 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q19] I explicitly wanted to vote for a candidate who had good chances to win in the second round.

Question

I explicitly wanted to vote for a candidate who had good chances to win in the second round.

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 71 7.1 – Yes 1 407 40.5 43.6 No 2 500 49.8 53.5 Cannot say 3 27 2.7 2.9 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q20] With my vote, I tried to stop a certain candidate from getting elected to the second round of the elections.

Question

With my vote, I tried to stop a certain candidate from getting to the second round of the elections.

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 71 7.1 – Yes 1 280 27.9 30.0 No 2 643 64.0 68.8 Cannot say 3 11 1.1 1.2 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 –

(continued on next page) 16 Q22

(cont. from previous page)

label value n % v. % 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q21] The candidate I voted for was not my first choice but I voted for a candidate who I thought had good chances to get elected to the second round of the elections.

Question

The candidate I voted for was not originally my first choice but I cast my vote to a candidate who in my mind had good chances to get to the second round of the elections.

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 71 7.1 – Yes 1 218 21.7 23.3 No 2 694 69.1 74.3 Cannot say 3 22 2.2 2.4 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q22] Do you recall any specific Gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections that would have had an effect on your own voting behaviour?

Question

Do you recall any specific gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections that would have had an effect on your own voting behaviour?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Yes 1 26 2.6 2.6 No 2 956 95.1 95.1 Cannot say 3 23 2.3 2.3 1005 100.0 100.0

17 2. Variables

[Q24] In general, how reliable did you find the Gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections?

Question

In general, how dependable did you find the gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Very dependable 1 28 2.8 2.8 Fairly dependable 2 540 53.7 53.7 Fairly undependable 3 313 31.1 31.1 Very undependable 4 68 6.8 6.8 I can’t say 5 56 5.6 5.6 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q25] Let us imagine that no Gallup-surveys measuring the support of the candidates would have been published during the week preceding the first round election day, which candidate would you most likely have voted for then?

Question

If in the last week of the first round of the elections, there would have not been published any gallup-surveys measuring the support of the candidates, which candidate would you most likely have voted for?

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Martti Ahtisaari 1 226 22.5 22.5 Sulo Aittoniemi 2 7 0.7 0.7 Claes Andersson 3 31 3.1 3.1 Raimo Ilaskivi 4 103 10.2 10.2 Toimi Kankaanniemi 5 8 0.8 0.8 Keijo Korhonen 6 44 4.4 4.4 Eeva Kuuskoski 7 17 1.7 1.7 Elisabeth Rehn 8 180 17.9 17.9 Pekka Tiainen 9 0 0.0 0.0 Pertti Virtanen 10 23 2.3 2.3

(continued on next page)

18 Q27

(cont. from previous page)

label value n % v. % Paavo Väyrynen 11 122 12.1 12.1 I would’nt have voted at all 12 27 2.7 2.7 I can’t say 13 217 21.6 21.6 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q26] Respondent’s basic education

Question

Basic education

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Primary education or less 1 348 34.6 34.6 Lower secondary education 2 358 35.6 35.6 Upper secondary education (matriculation examina- 3 299 29.8 29.8 tion) 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q27] Respondent’s vocational education

Question

Vocational training

Frequencies

label value n % v. % No vocational education 1 263 26.2 26.2 Vocational course, other short vocational education 2 135 13.4 13.4 Vocational school or equivalent (upper secondary 3 292 29.1 29.1 level) College level education 4 191 19.0 19.0 University education 5 113 11.2 11.2 Other 6 11 1.1 1.1 1005 100.0 100.0

19 2. Variables

[Q28] Respondent’s economic activity and occupational group

Question

To which of the following professional groups you think you belong

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Higher managerial position (employee) 1 30 3.0 3.0 Lower managerial or professional employee 2 110 10.9 10.9 Intermediate level employee (clerical, technical, ad- 3 147 14.6 14.6 min.) Worker 4 226 22.5 22.5 Entrepreneur or self-employed 5 82 8.2 8.2 Farmer 6 36 3.6 3.6 Student 7 82 8.2 8.2 Pensioner 8 205 20.4 20.4 Housewife, house husband 9 27 2.7 2.7 Unemployed 10 58 5.8 5.8 Other 11 2 0.2 0.2 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q29] Province of residence

Question

Province of residence

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Missing (User missing) 0 1 0.1 – Uusimaa province 1 220 21.9 21.9 Turku and Pori province 2 151 15.0 15.0 Häme province 3 144 14.3 14.3 Kymi province 4 58 5.8 5.8 Mikkeli province 5 53 5.3 5.3 Kuopio province 6 65 6.5 6.5 Keski-Suomi province 7 56 5.6 5.6 Vaasa province 8 84 8.4 8.4 Pohjois-Karjala province 9 33 3.3 3.3 Oulu province 10 93 9.3 9.3

(continued on next page)

20 Q31

(cont. from previous page)

label value n % v. % Lappi province 11 47 4.7 4.7 System missing (SYSMIS) . 0 0.0 – 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q30] Type of municipality

Question

Type of commune

Frequencies

label value n % v. % Metropolitan area 1 153 15.2 15.2 Turku, Tampere, Oulu, Lahti 2 110 10.9 10.9 Other town or city 3 395 39.3 39.3 Rural municipality 4 347 34.5 34.5 1005 100.0 100.0

[Q31] If parliamentary elections were held right now, for which party or group would you vote

Question

If parliamentary elections were held right now, for which party or group would you vote

Frequencies

label value n % v. % KESK (Centre Party of Finland) 1 122 12.1 12.1 SDP (Social Democratic Party of Finland) 2 210 20.9 20.9 KOK (National Coalition Party) 3 137 13.6 13.6 VAS (Left Alliance) 4 27 2.7 2.7 RKP (Swedish People’s Party in Finland) 5 27 2.7 2.7 VIHR (Green League) 6 38 3.8 3.8 SKL (Christian League of Finland) 7 7 0.7 0.7 SMP (Finnish Rural Party) 8 6 0.6 0.6 LKP (Liberal Party) 9 4 0.4 0.4 Some other party or group 10 6 0.6 0.6

(continued on next page)

21 2. Variables

(cont. from previous page)

label value n % v. % I would not vote 11 23 2.3 2.3 I can’t say 12 398 39.6 39.6 1005 100.0 100.0

22 Chapter 3

Indexes

3.1 Variables in the order of occurrence

FSD study number [FSD_NO] ...... 5 FSD edition number [FSD_VR] ...... 5 FSD processing level [FSD_PRO] ...... 6 FSD case id [FSD_ID] ...... 6 Sex of the respondent [Q1] ...... 6 Age of the respondent [Q2_1] ...... 7 Age groups [Q2_2] ...... 7 The actual election day for the second round of the presidential elections is 6th February. Have you already voted in advance in the second round? [Q3] ...... 7 How certain are you about going to vote in the second round of the elections? [Q4] ...... 8 For which candidate would you vote if the elections were held right now? [Q5] ...... 8 How certain are you that you would really vote the candidate you now support in the second round? [Q6] ...... 9 Did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections? [Q7] ...... 9 For whom did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections? [Q8] ...... 9 What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Opinion poll [Q9_1] ...... 10 What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Survey on political support [Q9_2] ...... 10 What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Gallup-survey [Q9_3] ...... 11 What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Something else [Q9_4] ...... 11 What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential

23 3. Indexes candidates and parties?: Cannot say [Q9_5] ...... 12 When did you vote in the first round of the elections? [Q10] ...... 12 At what stage did you make your final decision about which candidate to vote for in the first round of the elections? [Q11] ...... 12 How often do you remember having seen or heard estimates of the election support of the various candidates on TV, in the newspapers or on the radio? [Q12] ...... 13 How often did you discuss the results of the gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections among your family, at the work place, with friends or other people? [Q13] . . . .13 If you think about the voters’ choice of candidate in the first round of the elections, how much do you think the gallup-surveys affected their choice? [Q14] ...... 14 How did they affect your own choice of candidate? [Q15] ...... 14 The Gallup-surveys strengthened my view that my candidate had good chances to get elected to the second round of the elections. [Q16] ...... 15 I voted for my candidate expressly because the Gallup-surveys did’nt promise him/her success in the elections. [Q17] ...... 15 The success of my candidate in the Gallup-surveys was an incentive for me to go to vote. [Q18] 15 I explicitly wanted to vote for a candidate who had good chances to win in the second round. [Q19] ...... 16 With my vote, I tried to stop a certain candidate from getting elected to the second round of the elections. [Q20] ...... 16 The candidate I voted for was not my first choice but I voted for a candidate who I thought had good chances to get elected to the second round of the elections. [Q21] ...... 17 Do you recall any specific Gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections that would have had an effect on your own voting behaviour? [Q22] ...... 17 In general, how reliable did you find the Gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections? [Q24] ...... 18 Let us imagine that no Gallup-surveys measuring the support of the candidates would have been published during the week preceding the first round election day, which candidate would you most likely have voted for then? [Q25] ...... 18 Respondent’s basic education [Q26] ...... 19 Respondent’s vocational education [Q27] ...... 19 Respondent’s economic activity and occupational group [Q28] ...... 20 Province of residence [Q29] ...... 20 Type of municipality [Q30] ...... 21 If parliamentary elections were held right now, for which party or group would you vote [Q31] 21

24 3.2. Variables in alphabetical order

3.2 Variables in alphabetical order

Agegroups ...... 7 Age of the respondent ...... 7 At what stage did you make your final decision about which candidate to vote for in the first round of the elections? ...... 12 Did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections? ...... 9 Do you recall any specific Gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections that would have had an effect on your own voting behaviour? ...... 17 For which candidate would you vote if the elections were held right now? ...... 8 For whom did you vote in the first round of the presidential elections? ...... 9 FSDcaseid ...... 6 FSD edition number ...... 5 FSD processing level ...... 6 FSD study number ...... 5 How certain are you about going to vote in the second round of the elections? ...... 8 How certain are you that you would really vote the candidate you now support in the second round? ...... 9 How did they affect your own choice of candidate? ...... 14 How often did you discuss the results of the gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections among your family, at the work place, with friends or other people? ...... 13 How often do you remember having seen or heard estimates of the election support of the various candidates on TV, in the newspapers or on the radio? ...... 13 I explicitly wanted to vote for a candidate who had good chances to win in the second round. 16 I voted for my candidate expressly because the Gallup-surveys did’nt promise him/her success in the elections...... 15 If parliamentary elections were held right now, for which party or group would you vote . . . 21 If you think about the voters’ choice of candidate in the first round of the elections, how much do you think the gallup-surveys affected their choice? ...... 14 In general, how reliable did you find the Gallup-surveys published before the first round of the elections? ...... 18 Let us imagine that no Gallup-surveys measuring the support of the candidates would have been published during the week preceding the first round election day, which candidate would you most likely have voted for then? ...... 18 Province of residence ...... 20 Respondent’s basic education ...... 19 Respondent’s economic activity and occupational group ...... 20 Respondent’s vocational education ...... 19

25 3. Indexes

Sex of the respondent ...... 6 The actual election day for the second round of the presidential elections is 6th February. Have you already voted in advance in the second round? ...... 7 The candidate I voted for was not my first choice but I voted for a candidate who I thought had good chances to get elected to the second round of the elections...... 17 The Gallup-surveys strengthened my view that my candidate had good chances to get elected to the second round of the elections...... 15 The success of my candidate in the Gallup-surveys was an incentive for me to go to vote. . . 15 Type of municipality ...... 21 What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Opinion poll ...... 10 What concept or name do you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Survey on political support ...... 10 What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Cannot say ...... 12 What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Gallup-survey ...... 11 What concept or name would you use of the various polls measuring the support of presidential candidates and parties?: Something else ...... 11 When did you vote in the first round of the elections? ...... 12 With my vote, I tried to stop a certain candidate from getting elected to the second round of the elections...... 16

26 Appendix A

Abbreviations of Finnish Political Parties

DEVA Democratic Alternative EKA Pensioners for the People EKO Ecological Party EPV Egological Party The Greens EVY Party for Pensioners and Green Mutual Responsibility IPU Humanity Party KD Christian Democrats KESK Keskustapuolue Center Party KESK Suomen Keskusta Centre Party of Finland KESK/LKP Center Party + Liberal Party KIPU Ecological Party KOK National Coalition Party KTP For Peace and Socialism-Communist Worker’s Party KVL Union for Democracy LIB Liberals LKP Liberal Party LLP Natural Law Party NAISL Womens’ Movement NAISP Womens’ Party NUORS Progressive Finnish Party NUSU Progressive Finnish Party PKP Constitutional People’s Party POP Constitutional Party of Finland PS True Finns REM Reform Group RKP Swedish People’s Party in Finland RSES Independent Pensioners of Finland SDP Social Democratic Party of Finland SEP Finnish Pensioners’ Party SKDL Democratic League of the People of Finland SKL Christian League of Finland SKP The Communist Party of Finland SKYP Unification Party of the Finnish People SMP Finnish Rural Party

27 A. Abbreviations of Finnish Political Parties

SPK Finnish Constitutional People’s Party STP Socialist Workers’ Party SYP Private Entrepreneurs’ Party in Finland TPSL Social Democratic Union of Workers and Small Farmers VAS Left Alliance VASL Left Alliance VEV Alternative Union VIHR Vihreä Liitto Green League VIHR Vihreät The Greens VSL Alliance for Free Finland YVP Joint Responsibility Party

28 Appendix B

Questionnaire in Finnish

29 KYSELYLOMAKE Tämä kyselylomake on osa Yhteiskuntatieteelliseen tietoarkistoon arkistoitua tutkimusaineistoa

FSD1019 Kannatusmittaustutkimus 1994, osa 1

Kyselylomaketta hyödyntävien tulee viitata siihen asianmukaisesti lähdeviitteellä. Lisätiedot: http://www.fsd.uta.fi/

QUESTIONNAIRE This questionnaire is part of the following dataset, archived at the Finnish Social Science Data Archive:

FSD1019 Polling in Finnish Presidential Elections 1994, part 1

If this questionnaire is used or referred to in any publication, the source must be acknowledged by means of an appropriate bibliographic citation. More information: http://www.fsd.uta.fi/ ______

SUOMEN GALLUP OY PRESIDENTIN VAALIT 2. KIERROS 141041 2 ______

TUTKIMUS:%b

Seuraava puhelusi on numeroon %1. %r %2. Kontaktihenkilö 0

%33,/ hdw HUOM! Tämä puhelu on sovittu soitettavaksi klo %1 ______

Numero ... vastasi ...... ei vastaa ...... varattu ...... käyttökelvoton numero, poista! ......

Hyvää iltaa. Olen %n Suomen Gallup Oy:stä. Teemme tänään tutkimusta 18-vuotta täyttäneiden suomalaisten keskuudessa suhtautumisesta ajankohtaisiin asioihin. Teillä juuri nyt hetki aikaa vastata kysymyksiimme? kyllä ...... ehkä myöhemmin ...... ei ...... taloudessa ei kohderyhmään kuuluvaa henkilöä ......

Ei suostu haastateltavaksi ______

Olemme pahoillamme, että häiritsimme Teitä turhaan.

Kiitoksia ja kuulemiin. ______

Ei löydy sopivaa henkilöä ______

Olemme pahoillamme, että häiritsimme Teitä turhaan.

Kiitoksia ja kuulemiin. ______

______: Aluksi haluaisimme tietää minkä ikäinen olette. Vastaajan sukupuoli EI SANO F14 ÄLÄ KYSY Nainen ...... …. ______45 18 90 Mies ...... … : ikäluokat -40 ...... 41 ......

______

Suomen Gallup - Bellview 10 vuotta ______

SUOMEN GALLUP OY PRESIDENTIN VAALIT 2. KIERROS 141041 3 ______

: JOS ÄÄNESTI JOMPAA KUMPAA Koska kukaan ehdokkaista ei saavuttanut tasavallan presidentinvaalien ensimmäisellä kierroksella enemmistöä : annetuista äänistä järjestetään uusi vaali jossa Kuinka varma Te olette siitä, että todella äänestätte vastakkain ovat kaksi eniten ensimmäisellä kierroksella nyt kannattamaanne ehdokasta toisella kierroksella? ääniä saaneista. Vaalin toinen kierros on helmikuun 6. LUETTELE päivänä ja vastakkain ovat Martti Ahtisaari ja Elisabeth Täysin varma ...... Rehn. Oletteko Te käynyt äänestämässä ennakkoon Jokseenkin varma ...... tasavallan presidentinvaalin toisella kierroksella? Ei juurikaan varma ...... Kyllä ...... Epävarma ...... En ...... Ei osaa sanoa...... Ei halua sanoa ...... <ÄÄNESTI> : Jos ei ennakkoon Kävittekö Te äänestämässä tasavallan presidentinvaalin ensimmäisellä kierroksella <ÄÄNESTÄÄ> : Kyllä ...... Miten varmana Te pidätte sitä, että käytte äänestämässä Ei ...... vaalin toisella kierroksella? Ei halua sanoa...... LUETTELE VAIHTOEHDOT 1-4 Täysin varmana...... JOS KÄVI Melko varmana...... Epätodennäköisenä...... : Varmasti ette käy Ketä Te äänestitte tasavallan presidentinvaalin äänestämässä...... ensimmäisellä kierroksella? Ei osaa sanoa...... ÄLÄ LUETTELE Martti Ahtisaari...... : Sulo Aittoniemi...... Vastakkain toisella kierroksella ovat siis Martti Claes Andersson...... Ahtisaari ja Elisabeth Rehn. %65,/ Kumpaa Te äänestitte Raimo Ilaskivi...... vaalin toisen kierroksen ennakkoäänestyksessä? / Kumpaa Toimi Kankaanniemi...... Te äänestäisitte jos vaalit järjestettäisiin nyt? / Keijo Korhonen...... Martti Ahtisaari ...... Eeva Kuuskoski...... Elisabeth Rehn ...... Elisabeth Rehn...... En äänestäisi ...... Pekka Tiainen...... En osaa sanoa ...... Pertti Virtanen...... Paavo Väyrynen...... Ei halua sanoa......

______

Suomen Gallup - Bellview 10 vuotta ______

SUOMEN GALLUP OY PRESIDENTIN VAALIT 2. KIERROS 141041 4 ______

: Mitä käsitettä tai nimitystä Te käytätte presidenttiehdokkaiden ja puolueiden kannatusta mittaavista erilaisista tutkimuksista? Millä nimellä Te kutsutte tällaisia tutkimuksia? ÄLÄ AUTA Mielipidetutkimus ...... Kannatusmittaus ...... Gallup-tutkimus ...... Joku muu ...... Ei osaa sanoa ...... ______

Seuraavaksi siirryn kysymään näkemyksiänne vaaleja ennen ja niiden aikana julkistetuista äänestyspaikkakyselyistä ja kaikista muista ehdokkaiden kannatustutkimuksista. Seuraavassa käsitteellä gallup-tutkimus tarkoitetaan kaikkia tällaisia julkistettuja tutkimuksia riippumatta siitä kuka ne on tehnyt tai julkistanut. ______

: : Milloin kävitte äänestämässä vaalien ensimmäisellä Kuinka usein keskustelitte vaalien ensimmäisen kierroksella? Kävittekö äänestämässä ennakkoon, kierroksen alla julkistetuista gallup-tutkimusten varsinaisena vaalipäivänä noin klo 9-12, varsinaisena tuloksista perheen piirissä, työpaikalla, ystävien vaalipäivänä noin klo 12-18, varsinaisena vaalipäivänä kesken tai muiden ihmisten kanssa? noin klo 18-20? (LUETTELE) ennakkoon...... Melkein joka päivä...... varsinaisena vaalipäivänä n. Noin kerran viikossa...... klo 9-12...... Harvemmin ...... varsinaisena vaalipäivänä n. Ei lainkaan ...... klo 12-18...... Ei osaa sanoa ...... varsinaisena vaalipäivänä n. klo 18-20...... : ei osaa sanoa/ei halua sanoa Jos ajattelette äänestäjien ehdokasvalintoja vaalien ensimmäisellä kierroksella, niin kuinka paljon arvelette erilaisten qallup-tutkimusten vaikuttaneen yleensä Entä missä vaiheessa lopullisesti päätitte sen, kenelle äänestäjien ehdokasvalintaan vaalien ensimmäisellä ehdokkaalle annoitte äänenne vaalin ensimmäisellä kierroksella? kieroksella? (LUETTELE) (LUETTELE) Paljon ...... Vasta äänestyskopissa tai Jonkin verran ...... joitakin tunteja ennen Ei lainkaan ...... äänestämässä käyntiä ...... Ei osaa sanoa ...... Samana päivänä kun kävitte äänestämässä ...... : Joitakin päiviä ennen Entä miten ne vaikuttivat Teidän omaan äänestämistänne ...... ehdokasvalintaanne? Noin viikkoa kahta ennen Paljon ...... äänestämistänne ...... Jonkin verran ...... Noin kuukautta kahta ennen Ei lainkaan ...... äänestämistänne ...... Ei osaa sanoa ...... Päätös oli selvä tätäkin aikaisemmin ...... ______En osaa sanoa ...... Entä millä tavoin qallup-tutkimukset ja niiden tulokset vaikuttivat osallistumiseenne vaaleissa tai omaan ehdokasvalintaanne? Joulun jälkeen presidentinvaalien ensimmäisen kierroksen Olkaa hyvä ja vastatkaa seuraavassa lueteltaviin alla julkistettiin tiedotusvälineissä ehdokkaiden kohtiin KYLLÄ tai EI sen mukaan olivatko ne oman kannatusta ennakoivia gallup-tutkimuksia? Kuinka usein päätöksenne taustalla? muistatte nähneenne tai kuulleenne tällaisia ______kannatusarvioita televisiossa, sanomalehdissä tai radiossa. Näittekö tai kuulitteko niitä useammin kuin 10 : kertaa, 6-10 kertaa, 3-5 kertaa, 1 tai 2 kertaa vai ette Gallup-tutkimukset vahvistivat kantaani siitä, että koin lainkaan? ehdokkaallani olevan hyvät mahdollisuudet päästä vaalin Useammin kuin 10 kertaa...... toiselle kierrokselle 6-10 kertaa...... Kyllä ...... 3-5 kertaa...... Ei ...... 1 tai 2 kertaa...... Ei osaa sanoa ...... en lainkaan...... en osaa sanoa......

______

Suomen Gallup - Bellview 10 vuotta ______

SUOMEN GALLUP OY PRESIDENTIN VAALIT 2. KIERROS 141041 5 ______

JOS KYLLÄ Äänestin ehdokastani nimenomaan siksi, että gallup-tutkimukset eivät luvanneet hänelle hyvää : vaalimenestystä Mikä tutkimus oli kyseessä, milloin se julkistettiin ja Kyllä ...... mitä vaikutuksia sillä oli Teidän mielestänne? Ei ...... Ei osaa sanoa ...... ______ : ______Ehdokkaani gallup-kannatus innosti minua käymään Avoin vastaus...... äänestämässä Kyllä ...... : Ei ...... Kuinka luotettavina yleensä ottaen piditte ennen Ei osaa sanoa ...... ensimmäistä vaalikierrosta julkaistuja gallup-tutkimuksia? : Vastatkaa ehdottomasti sen mukaan, mikä tilanne oli Halusin äänestää nimenomaan sellaista ehdokasta, jolla ennen äänestämistänne tai lopullista äänestämättä oli hyvät mahdollisuudet selvitä voittajaksi vaalin jättämistänne. toisella kierroksella Pidittekö niitä erittäin luotettavina, melko Kyllä ...... luotettavina, melko epäluotettavina vai erittäin Ei ...... epäluotettavina? Ei osaa sanoa ...... erittäin luotettavina.....… melko luotettavina...... : melko epäluotettavina...... Pyrin äänelläni estämään tietyn ehdokkaan pääsyn vaalin erittäin epäluotettavina.... toiselle kierrokselle en osaa sanoa...... Kyllä ...... Ei ...... : Ei osaa sanoa ...... Jos kuvitellaan, että vaalien ensimmäisellä kierroksella ei olisi viimeisen viikon aikana julkistettu yhtään : ehdokkaiden kannatusta ennakoivaa gallup-tutkimusta, Äänestämäni ehdokas ei ollut alun perin ensisijainen niin ketä ehdokasta olisitte tuolloin todennäköisesti ehdokkaani, mutta äänestin sellaista ehdokasta, jolla äänestänyt? katsoin olevan hyvät mahdollisuudet päästä vaalin Martti Ahtisaari...... toiselle kierrokselle Sulo Aittoniemi...... Kyllä ...... Claes Andersson...... Ei ...... Raimo Ilaskivi...... Ei osaa sanoa ...... Toimi Kankaanniemi...... Keijo Korhonen...... : Eeva Kuuskoski...... Muistatteko joitakin tiettyjä ensimmäisen Elisabeth Rehn...... vaalikierroksen alla julkaistuja gallup-tutkimuksia, Pekka Tiainen...... joilla oli vaikutusta omaan äänestyskäyttäytymiseenne? Pertti Virtanen...... Kyllä ...... Paavo Väyrynen...... Ei ...... En olisi äänestänyt lainkaan Ei osaa sanoa ...... En osaa sanoa......

______

Suomen Gallup - Bellview 10 vuotta ______

SUOMEN GALLUP OY PRESIDENTIN VAALIT 2. KIERROS 141041 6 ______

Lopuksi kysyisin vielä muutamia taustatietoja ______

: : Peruskoulutus Asuinlääninne? LUETTELE Uudenmaan lääni...... Kansakoulu tai vähemmän, Turun ja Porin lääni...... kansalaiskoulu ...... Hämeen lääni...... Keskikoulu tai peruskoulu..... Kymen lääni...... Ylioppilastutkinto ...... Mikkelin lääni...... Kuopion lääni...... : Keski-Suomen lääni...... Ammatti- tai jatkokoulutus? Vaasan lääni...... LUETTELE Pohjois-Karjalan lääni...... Ei ammattikoulutusta ...... Oulun lääni...... Ammattikurssi, lyhyt Lapin lääni...... ammattikoulutus, työn ohessa saatu koulutus...... : Ammattikoulu, teknillinen Paikkakuntatyyppi koulu, kauppakoulu tai LUETTELE näihin verrattava...... Pääkaupunkiseutu...... Opistotasoinen koulutus...... Turku, Tampere, Oulu, Lahti. Yliopisto- tai Muu kaupunki...... korkeakoulututkinto...... Maaseutu...... Muu, mikä?...... : : Ja vielä viimeinen kysymys. Jos eduskuntavaalit Mihin seuraavista ammattiryhmistä Te katsotte järjestettäisiin nyt, niin mitä puoluetta tai kuuluvanne? ryhmittymää Te äänestäisitte? johtavassa asemassa toisen KESK (Suomen Keskusta)...... palveluksessa ...... SDP (Suomen ylempi toimihenkilö...... Sosialidemokraattinen alempi toimihenkilö...... Puolue)...... työntekijä ...... KOK (Kansallinen Kokoomus).. yrittäjä tai yksityinen VAS (Vasemmistoliitto)...... ammatinharjoittaja...... RKP (Ruotsalainen maanviljelijä...... Kansanpuolue)...... koululainen tai opiskelija.. VIHR (Vihreä liitto)...... eläkeläinen...... SKL (Suomen Kristillinen kotiäiti/-isä...... Liitto)...... työtön...... SMP (Suomen Maaseudun joku muu...... Puolue)...... LKP (Liberaalinen Kansanpuolue)...... Joku muu puolue tai ryhmittymä...... En äänestäisi...... En osaa sanoa......

______

Suomen Gallup - Bellview 10 vuotta ______

SUOMEN GALLUP OY PRESIDENTIN VAALIT 2. KIERROS 141041 7 ______

HAASTKESTO ______

Tässä kaikki kysymyksemme tällä kerralla. Oikein ______411 66 1372 paljon kiitoksia vastauksistanne. Minun nimeni on %n ja tämä haastattelu tehtiin Suomen Gallupin puhelinhaastattelukeskuksesta. Hyvää jatkoa! ______

______

Suomen Gallup - Bellview 10 vuotta ______