b~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
-~ - '1 4cmo EDoc=64iof 'the WorldBank
FOR FMCIAL USE aNULY Public Disclosure Authorized
Rep WNo8543-BT -
'STAFFAPPRAILSAL RESPORT Public Disclosure Authorized - BO-TSWANA
TULI BLOCKROdADS PRojBCT
- - ~~~~JMN7, 1990
Di-~~~ . _ '- Public Disclosure Authorized
TIpfrastruacture Operations Dlivision
Public Disclosure Authorized .Southern Africa Depa;Ituent
IThisdocument has a restricted.dlstrbutlqn and may be used by recipient only in the performameof their offcia dutdes Its conents may not othewie be discimi withoutWe Bank awftho$u~t1o CURRERCIQUIALMEUT
-. (as of hArch,31,1990)
-currency U'it Pula (pi and tvebe P 3.00 US$0.53 ' I ' '. .S US$1.00 -P 1.872 ;P1.00,- Z0O thebe
FZS.AL YEAR
April I to March 31
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
I~ meter (mn) 3.2808 feet (Pt) 1 kilomete:. (km) U 0.6214 miles (m5) 1 metric ton (tonnes) 11023 short tons
GLOSSARYOF ABBREVIATIONS
AiDE - African Development San SADRA - ~~~~ArabBank for Economic Developmentin Africa B ABotwana Agricultural Marketing Board ECU - S~~~~~otswanaCo-operative Union --DC Botswana Development Corporation 53CC - S~~~~otsvanalMeatCouniission 2 BR Botswana Railway. CTO - Central Transport Organization ERR - -~~~ - E)conomicRate of Return
BSA - Equivalent Standard Axles - FAP Financial Assistance Policy GDP m Gross DomesticProduct 5Dm - Highway Design and Maintenance Stiandards Mie ICE~ ~ ~ ~ 11 InternationalC~ompetitive Bidding' MFDP - Ministry of Finance and DevelopmentPlanning LGL )Ministry of Local Government and .ands MOA WMinistry of Agriculture 1C Kinistryof'orks,Merltn Transport and ComtoniCations XDB - National Development Bank, NDP - Natioanl Development P.an NRZ National Railways of Z 5bae RD m Roads Department RSA Republic of South Africa RTC Rloads Training Center SACU' Southern African Customs Union. SADC =C Southern African Development Coordination Conference ak 'CfnlDrlpmn 'Sol NDB -~~~ - -. Statement of Expelditures SPRDU Selebi-Phikwt Reg6bnal Develosnt unit, VIC - I rVehicleOperating Cost, FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
BOTSWANA
TULI BLOCK ROADS PROJECT
STAFF APPRAISALREPORT
Table of Contents Page No.
Credit and ProiectSummary ...... i - iii
I. Backgroundand Regional Context
A. Geographicand MacroeconomicSetting ...... 1 B. Focus on RegionalDevelopment ...... 3 C. Rationalefor Bank Group Involvement...... # ...... 4
II. The Transport Sector
A. The TransportSystem ...... 5 B. TransportPolicy, Planning and Coordination ...... 7 C. Bank's Role in the TransportSector ...... 9
III. The Road Subsector
A. The Road Network ...... 10 B. Road Use ..... ** ...... **** ...... 11 C. Sector Finances...... 13 D. Administration,Staffing and Planning ...... 15
IV. The Project
A. objectives...... B. Description. . 18 C. Project Costs and Financing ...... 21 D. Implementationand Procurement ...... ;23 E. Disbursements...... 24 F. Accounting,Auditing and ReportingRequirements . 26 G. EnvironmentalAspects . 26
V. Proiect Justification
A. General...... -..... 27 B. Economic Evaluation...... 28
VI. Agreements Reached and Recommendations...... 31
This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission to Botswana in November 1989, comprisingMs. Imogene Burns (Economist,mission leader), Mr. Preben Jensen (PrincipalHighway Engineer) and Mr. John Wrigley (Agricultural Economist,consultant).
This documenthas a restricteddistmibuaion and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bink authorization. ANNEXES
1. Related Documentsand Data Available in the Project File 2. I Road transport Revenue and Expenditure,1984185-1990191 3. arger Implementation Schedule ; 4. VeUcle OperatingCosts S. Economic Analysis - Sefophe-Martin's Drift Road :6. Economic Analysis - Sefophe-Martin's Drift Road - In Case of Delay 7. Economic Analysis - Bobonong-Lekkerpoet Road 8. Economic Analysis - Bobonong-Lekkerpoet Road - In Case -of Delay
CHARTS
1. Ministry of Works, Transport and Commnications Organizational Chart 2. Roads DepartmentOrganizationaL-Chart
MAP
IBRD No. 22255 Tuli Block Roads Project
it-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I~~~ I~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~
'--~ ~ ~ 1 BOTSWAN&
TULI BLOCKROADS PROJECT
LOANAND PROJECT SUMMARY
Borrowert The Republic of Botswana
Beneficiarys Ministry of Works, Transport and Communications (MWTC), Roads Department (RD)
Amount: US$14.9 million
Terms: Seventeenylars, includinga five-yeargrace period, at the Bank's standardvariable interest rate.
Project Obiectives: The main objectives-of-theproject are to (a) provide road links necessaryfor the deyelopmentand integrationof the Selebi-Phikwe'area and its hinterland,and facilitateits effectivenessas a regionalmarketing center; (b) strengthen the capacityof RD to organize and carry out road maintenanceat the increasedlevel mandated by the expansion of the road network; and (c) impro=veroad planning and progravuing capability in anticipationof the next National DevelopmentPlan (NDP7) in 1991.
Project Descriptions The project will comprise the followings
(a) constructionof th.-Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road, 134 ------= km, to bitumen standard,including a 10-km spur tC-the - major village of Kgagodi, and village access roads;
(b) constructionof the Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroad, 66 km, of which about 50 km will be to bitumen standard and the 4emainder with a gravel surface, includingtwo -Ishort access roads to the villages of Molalata4 and Mathatbane;and
(c) consultingservices fors (i) constructionsupervision for (a) and (b) above; and (ii) a study of a new maintenancemanagement/organization system for roads, combinedwith a network planning study.
Justification and Riskst Substantialbenefits are expected to accrue from the reductionin transportcosts with consequentfavorable effects on-productionand marketingcosts in the region. The project is expected to facilitatethe developmentand diversificationof the regional-economyby improvingthe accessibilityof Selebi-Phikweboth within the region and with respect to national and external markets. By opening up ap area consistingof rural farms and villages and by providingbetter access to a game reserve, the project also will lay the groundworkfor increasedagricultural and livestockproduction and tourism in the area. The economic rate of return for the project is estimatedto be 15 percent. The principal risk is that full realizationof ag-iculturalbenefits associatedwith the Bobonong- Lekkerpoet road may not occur without improved horticultural marketingand supply management. To reduce this risk, the Government has agreed to prepare and take steps to facilitateimplementation of an agriculturaldevelopment plan for the district.
gSuvaaryof ProlectCost8s Local Foreign Total (US$ M4illion)
Civil Works 7.3 16.9 24.2 ConsultingServices 0.5 i.8 2.3
Total Base Cost 7.8 18.7 26.5
Physical Contingencies 0.8 1.9 2.7 Price Contingencies 2.8 5.6 8.4
Subtotal 3.6 7.5 11.1
Total ProjectCost ta) 11.4 26.2 37.6
(a) Identifiabletaxes and duties amount to US$3.6 million and total project cost, net of taxes and duties, is US$34.0million.
Pinancing Plan:
IBRD 0.0 14.9 14.9 BADEA 0.0 6.4 6.4 AFDB 0.3 1.0 1.3
Government 11.1 . 3.9 15.0
Total 11.4 26.2 37.6 I . , - -.~m m m
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ <2
Estimnated DisbursemIents (US$ million,}.
F?Y91 1X92 FY93 !FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98
Annual 0.2 0.5 2.6 37t 2.7 2.1 2.2 0.9 Cumulative 0.2 0.7 3.3 7.0 9.7 11.8 14.0 14.9
Economic Rate of Return: 152
Mas - ~~~IBUDNo. 22255
i I BOTSWINA
TULI BLOCK ROADS PROJECT
STAFF APPRAISALREPORT
I. BACRGROUNDAND REGIONALCONTEXT
A. Geographic and Macroeconomic Setting
1.01 Botsvana is a large landlocked country in southern Africa, bordered by Namibia, the Republicof South Africa (RSA), Zambia aud Zimbabwe. With an area of 582,000km2 (about the size of France) and populationof 1.21 mi;lion, it is for the most part sparsely populated. Two-thirdsof the;countryis covered by the Kalahari 1/ Desert and over 80 percent of the populationis concentratedin the relativelyfertile eastern third. The populationhas been growing rapidlyat a rate of 3.52 per annum (1980-87),but populatiogdensity remains low, about 2 persons per km2, comparedwith the average for middle income Sub-SaharanAfrica of 65.
1.02 Botswana has experiencedimpressive economic growth over the past two decades,with average real GDP growth of 10 percent per annum during the 19709 and 11 percent per annum during the 19806. Consistent with this high growth,per capita income has risen from US$110 in-1970 to US$1,490 in 1988. Although impressive,most of this growth has been the ,resgtof gains in the productionof-mi'nals and, to a legser extent, the export of beef and?output from a small industrialand comercial sector. From 1976 to 1948, the share of GDP attributableto mining and quarrying increasedfrom 13 to 44 percent,while agriculture'sshare declined from 23 to 3 percent.
1.03 Largely a result of increasedmineral royaltiesand dividends, governmentrevenue grew 220 percent, from 763 million pula in 1984/85 to 2,446 million pula in 1988/89. Over the same period, capital expenditures increasedabout 280 percent, from 210 to 791 million pula, and recurrent expendituresabout 160 percent, from 342 to 897 million pula. The last overallbudgetary deficitwas in 1982183. Since then, prudentmanagement, plus the surge In revenuedue to strong diamond sales and prices, has caused the budgetary surplusto grow as much as 300 percent from 188 million pula in 1984185 to 771 million pula in 1988189. However, as much of this growth was due to the sellingoff of stockpileddiamonds and higher than expected prices in the world market, this high rate of growth is not expected to continue. Current forecastsindicate that the growth of the economy will deceleratein the years ahead, with a commensuratereduction in the rate of growth of governmentrevenue.
1.04 Whilethe government budget and balance of payments remain in surplus, governmentspending has increasedtwice as fast as forecast in the
11 The Botswana name is Kgalagadi. -2- currentNational DevelopmentPlan, 1985-1991,(NDP6). Government developmentspending increasednearly 50 percent in each of the past three years, partly in response to the greater than anticipatedavailability of real resourcesand partly to fulfill a continuingneed for drought-related expenditures. The Government's1987 Mid-term Review of NDP6 reported development expenditures of the Ministry of Works, TZansport and Commuications (MWTC)63 percent above the level projected in NDP6 for the 1985-87 period. Nonetheless, the surplus of the governmentbudget has exceeded 15 percent of GDP in recent years, and foreign reservesreached.a high of U$$2 billion in 1988, enough to cover about 18 months of importsor equivaleutto approximatelyone year of GDP. These reserveshave been professionallymanaged and Botswana'sfinancial rating is souad. However, while the presence of large foreignreserves reflects the Government's fiscal restraint,it also is symptomaticof the lack of depth in the economy and consequentinability to absorb the large resource gains as rapidly as they hate accumulated.
1.05 Botswana's impressive growth masks its pronouncedeconomic dualism. Two-thirdsof the populationcontinues to reside in rural areas and to depend on traditionalagriculture and cattle-raising.Overall, the rural economy has been in decline,both in relative and absolute terms. Although partly a result of the recent drought, poverty and unemployment are major issues likely to become more problematicas populationpressures increase, ocological damage sustained in the arable and range lands worsens before mitigating programs can take effect, and other constraintsto future growth becowe more severe. The unemployment rate is currently about 25 percent and most evident in urban areas and major villages. This is likely to grow as approximately 20,000 people enter the labor market each year, compared with formal sector job creation of 11,000-14,000 per year.
1.06 The dichotomy between rapid economic growth on the one hand and high unemployment and rural decline on the other represents the difficulty - - - of progressing beyond prudent fiscal management to economic development that is broadly based and sustainable. Botswana's economy is very undiversified, and entrepreneurial skills are generally lacking in a society that until recently relied on raising livestock for earning incomes and as a mechanism for saving. Some positive signs of diversificationare evident, as manufacturinghas grown about 8 percent per annum over five years, albeit from a sutallbase, rising from 4 percent to 6 percent of domestic output. Total non-miningindustrial and non-governmentservice sector value added has grown approximately7 percent per annum and now representsnearly 40 percent of GDP. However,much of the demand motivating growth in the service sector is linked to the mining sector and would be eroded if mineral revenueswere to fall.
1.07 The major challenge, then, is to use the resources available from diamond exports to promote sustainable economic growth. The Government's policy, reflected in NDP6, is to use these resources to diversify the economy and therebypromote productiveemployment, especially outside of the capital-intensivemining enclaves. However, a recent Bank study concludedthat the volume of investmentrequired is sufficiently large to exceed-evenBotswana's apparently ample domestic resources. Given the small size of the economy, a successfulprogram would need to be export-driven and depend on foreign investment to provide not only -3- financingbut also expertiseand access through establishedmarketing relationshipsto world markets. Botswana'sreputation for strong economic managementplaces it in a relativelygood position for such development.
B. Focus on Regional Development
1.08 While economicdiversification is a national priority,there is particularurgency in Selebi-Phikwe,a town with a populationof about 40,000 that dependsheavily on a copper/nickelmine which shows a progressivedeoline in the level of production. In anticlpationof a gradual reduct on in ou'cput,the Governmenthas given priority to finding ways to reduce Gependenceon the mine and diversifyeconomic activity in the area. The Selebi-Phikwe/TuliBlock region also is of strategic importancebecause it is a relativelyfertile area along the Limpopo river with access to markets in Zimbabwe and R0A as well as Botswana'smain populationcenters. The town of Selebi-Phikwe,with its substantialwater resources,also is importantas it offers an alternativegrowth pole to the water-scarceand increasinglycongested capital, Gaborone.
1.09 Thus, although Selebi-Phikwe'sinitial development was determinedby the presence of minerals,the town has a number of other locationaladvantages. Even daring prolongedperiods of drought it has er-joyedadequate water supply; rechargeof the nearby Shashe Dam has proved ample, and the town is close to the Limpopo River and its major tributavy, the Motloutse. Immediatelyto the east is the Tuli Block, and to the west is a triangle of semi-urbanvillages - Serowe, Palapye and Mahalapye - that lacks much of the modern sector activity Selebi-Phikweis capable of generating. These villages and other settlementsbring the total population of the region to nearly 200,000, about 15 percent of the country'stotal population. Selebi-Phikwe'sonly potentialcompetitor as a developingregional center is the larger commercialand manufacturing center of Francietown, about 160 km_to the north. However. tuere is a difference in oriettation, as Francistown looks more to trade with Zimbabwe and serving Botswana's cattle industry through its rail facilities and abattoir.
1.10 In spite of Selebi-Phikve's locational advantages,it did not initiallydevelop as a regional center. In part this was because the town's economic activitywas centered on the mine and there was little integrationwith other activitiesin the region. These other activities, primarily dryland farmingand traditionallivestock herding, had little use for the services of a regionalcenter but relied insteadon smaller villages and BotswanaAgricultural Marketing Board (BAMB) depots. The town itself was relativelyinaccessible from the rural areas, as communication links and serviceswithin the region, quch as roads, electricityand telephoneconnections, were poor or unavailable.
1.11 These circumstancesare now changing,due in part to the activitiesof the Selebi-PhikweRegional Development Unit (SPRDU) establishedunder the Selebi-PhikweTechnical Assistance Project (Ln. 2695- BT) and to the momentum of investmentin a range of activitiesin the area. To date, SPRDU's industrialpromotion program has brought six manufacturing enterprlsesinto the area. Although not yet fully operational,these firms are expected to create 1,100 new jobs. Another four firms are expected;to -4- begin operationin 1990, potentiallycreating another 500 jobs. To assist this effort, the Governmenthas designatedindustrial investment in Selebi- Phikwe as a favored categoryunder the national FinancialAssistance Polic, (YAP),which includes the provisionof tax holidays,favorable interest rates, seed capital for investors uid payroll and traininggrants. An added incentivewas recently approvedfor industrialor manufacturingfirms locating In Selebi-Phikwe,but only if they employ 400 or more Batswana and export 100 percent of output outside of the southernAfrica region (SouthernAfrican DevelopmentCoordination Conference (SADOC)and Southern Africt7nCustoms UVhoi (SACU) areas). In addition to the standard PAP provisions,such firms would be eligible for a nominal corporatetax rate of 15 percent for _0 years and exemptionof withholdingtaxes on dividends paid from after-taxprofits for the first ten years.
1.12 As part of the long-termagricultural development of the region, feasibilitystudies are well advanced for the constructionof up to three dams in the Shashe Basin that will, among other purposes,provide water for irrigatedagriculture as well as urban water supply. SPRDU also has a modest program to assist small-scaleirrigated agriculture in Selebe- Phikwe and environs O*madinaireand Tobane) and Bobonong to the east in the Tuli Block. In the Tuli Block area, recent improvementsto telecommunications,extension of the electricitysupply grid, and iv -,ved road access will significantlyreduce constraintsto development. La addition to area residentsserved by these investments,Talana Farm, a comercial irrigatedfarm located in the Tuli Block area, is likely to be an importantbeneficiary.
C. Rationale for Bank Grouyp-Involvement - -
1.13 The Bank's involvement in Selebi-Phikwedates back to 1969, 1971 and 1974 with the financing of water, rail and housing infrastructure(Cr. 172-BT, US$2.8 million; Ln. 776-BT, US$32.0 million; and Ln. 776-2-BT, US$5.5 million). A loan to the BotswanaDevelopment Corporation in 1974 (Ln. 1019-BT,US$4.0 million) also included sub-loansfor Talana Farm (US$0.1million) and for covmercialproperty developmentin Selebi-Phikwe (US$1.0million). More recently,the Bank has been instrumentalthrough the Selebi-PhikweTechnical Assistance Project (Ln. 2695-BT,US$7.6 million) in generatingnational and internationalinterest in the region and in facilitating a coordinated approach to its development.
1.14 The present project is a natural continuatIon of the Bank's supportdirected towards eliminatingthe major constraintsto the area's emerging economic attractionto investorsand a necessary element in the long-run strategy to transforma mining town that would not remain viable in the absence of minerzl activity into an industrialand agricultural center. The Bank's participationwill help to ensure the coordinationand timely implementationof these investmentsand realize the ensuing developmentalbenefits. The project also will build on previous Bank involvement in the road subsector by strengthening the planning and maintenancecapability of the Roads Department (RD). II. THE TRANSPORTSECTOR
A. The TransportSystem
2.01 Consistentwith the developmentpattern that has emerged in Botswana,the surface transportsystem is concentratedin the eastern corridor. BotswanaRailways (SR) runs north-souththrough this corridor and connects to thk South African Railwaysand NationalRailways of Zimbabwe (NRZ). The road system also I.smore developedin the eastern portion,with the main north-southroa%l running parallel to the railway line. However, the Governmenthas embarkedon a program to extend and upgrade the network, Includingcompletion of the Nata-Maun-Ghanzisections of the circularmain road and the Sekoma-rhanzi-Mamunoroad to Namibia, as well as continue to upgrade rural roads to promote rural development. The civil aviation system is extensiveand reflects the importanceof air transportin a vast, sparsely settledcountry. Air Botswana,the naticnal carrier, provides scheduledservice to the main airportsof Gaborone, Francistown, Selebi-Phikwe and Maun, the first three of which are located in the eastern corridor, as well as service throughout the southern Africa region.
Roads
2.03 Botswana'spresent road network consists of 8,204 km of gaWetted roads (2,360km paved and 790 km gravel) and about 8,000 km of ungazetted roads and tracks. The qualityof the main roads generallyis good, but most of the roads in rural and remote areas are heavy sand and earth tracks and only passablewith four-wheeldrive vehicles. Notwithstandingthe relativelysparse network of roads, road transportplays an importantrole in the economy. More-udetailson the road subsectorare provided in Chapter III.-
Railways
2.04 The railway system consists of the north-southmain line (641 km) that links Bulawayo in Zimbabwe throughBotswana with Hafeking in RSA, and two branch lines, one running from Serule to Selebi-Phikwe (59 km) and one from Palapye to Morupule (15 km). A branch line connecting Sua Pan to the main lins at Francistown(180 km) for the extraction of soda ash, salt and associatedminerals is under conStructionand scheduledfor completion in April 1991.
2.05 Until recently,the main line wr.s owned by NRZ but operated by BR, while the branch lines were owned and operatedby BR. BR took over operationof the entire system in 1987, with transferof ownershipone year later. A track improvementprogram is under way and additionalassets, such as rolling stock, signallingand telecommunications,are being procured in order to improveoperations. Additionalmanagerial and technicalstaff have "een added to supplementthe NR2 personneltaken over in the course of the transfer. Although a strong emphasishas been placed on the training of Batswana to cover all BR requirements,expatriate staff continue to fill most key managerialposts. -6-
2.06 A railways traffic and tariff study vas completed in November 1988, which recommends a new system of cost-based tariffs set to recover full costs. This would replace the existing tariff structure, which reflects traditional value of service pricing, plus a surcharge applied to branch line rates to cover the costs of those lines. In addition to distortionary effects, the existing structure has resulted in poor cost recovery overall. BR showed a deficit of nearly 9 million pula in 1987188 and an estimated 8.5 million pula in 1988189. There also was the concern that the surcharge on the Selebi-Phikwe line provided a disincentive for the development and diversification of economic activity in that area. The Government plans to adopt the new tariff structure in 1991. 2.07 The railway has increased in importance over the past decade because of the traffic generated by mineral development and beef exports. The railway carries a large share of imports and most bulky exports for Botswana, and is used by Zimbabwe, Zambia and Zaire as a transit route to and from RSA ports. Transit traffic accounted for 40 percent of total freight traffic of 2.08 million tons in 1987/88 and 2.07 million tons in 1988189. Although the north-south road runs parallel to the main rail line, the nature of the freight traffic (weight and bulk) is such that there is little road-rail competition for freight haulage in the corridor. An estimated 500,000 passengers used the railway in 1988/89. Civil Aviation 2.08 Air transport plays an important role in the transport system of Botswana due to the long distances between settlements and inadequacy of the road network in some parts of the country. This is reflected in Botswana's many airports and airstrips, which include one international airport in Gaborone, three regional airports (Francistown, Selebi-Phikwe and Maun), 30 secondary and minor airstrips, and 122 private licensed airstrips. The main airports are constructed to bitumen/concrete standard, while the minor airstrips range from gravel to sand. These are used extensively for private, commercial and tourist flights and help to integrate settlements in the north and west into the economic and social life of the country. 2.09 For the period 183-58, passenger volumes at the four main airports (Gaborone, Francistown, Selebi-Phikwe and Maun) increased by 62 percent, from 113,437 to 184,365. Domestic traffic accounted for 68 percent of the growth, with a more than doubling of domestic volumes in Maun but 50 percent reduction in Selebi-Phikwe. Althouph international passenger volumes have increased, the decline in Selebe-Phikwe's domestic traffic began with the improvement of the north-south road, placing the town within a reasonable driving range of Gaborone. Cargo traffic handled during the same period increased by 90 percent, from 278,449 kg to an estimated 529,200 kg, and mail traffic grew by about 70 percent, from 92,695 kg to an estimated 157,050 kg. 2.10 Air Botswana was initially established in 1972 as a profit- oriented parastatal wholly owned by the Botswana Development Corporation (BDC). The airline consistently incurred substantial losses and in 1988 became a parastatal underthe supervision of MWTC. The airline presently -7- operates four aircrafts a Dornier 228, two ATR 42s, and a recently acquired BAe 146. Passengertraffic grew 25 percent over the past year, exceedingexpectations, and load factors improvedfrom 41 to 51 percent. In FY 1989, the airline showed a small net profit before tax, but this was prior to delivery of the new aircraft. Although the objectiveof economic viabilityremains, supportedby strong trafficgrowth and a recent tariff increase,the necessityof Governmentassistance is expected to continue for some time.
B. Transport Policy, Planning and Coordination
2.11 The Botswana National TransportPlan, completedin 1983, forms the basis for Governmentpolicy and planning in the sector through the year 2000. The main objectivesof the Plan are to reduce the country'shigh transportcosts, improve transportservices in rural areas, increase economicbenefits derived from transittraffic and, where feasible,reduce dependenceon the transportservices of neighboringcountries. The Plan's recommendationsare reflectedin NDP6 and a Mid-term Review completed in 1988. Now that the foundationof the basic transportnetwork is largely in place, specificobjectives of NDP6 are to:
1) focus on maintenanceas the first priority and restrictnew constructionto what the Governmentcan afford to maintain;
2) improve access to rural areas, especiallyareas with agriculturalpotential or opportunitiesfor productive employment;
3) introducea PavementManagement System to facilitate monitoring of maintenance needs and improve planning;
4) revise taxation and pricing policies to improve the overall level of cost recovery in the sector; and
5) continue the manpower development program and indigenize posts where suitably trained and experienced candidates are available.
2.12 The key issue that underlies these objectives is the ongoing need to review basic priorities,within and among sectors, in anticipation of a reductionin the currenthigh rate of economicgrowth. The pacing of developmentwill become increasinglyimportant, both because fewer Government resourcesare likely to be availableand because the next phase of capitaldevelopment projects in the road subsectorincludes costly projects such as the trans-Kalaharihighway traversingsparsely populated areas to the west. With respectto sustainability,the acceleratedpace of the developmenteffort over the past few years will greatly increase the recurrentbudget and skilled and semi-skilledmanpower requirementsin the coming years. These are all issues that will be addressedin the course of planning for NDP7, 1991-1997.
2.13 The Government'soverall priorities among sectors are reflected in the five-yearpublic sector investmentprogram. Annual investmentsin transportover the past five years are shown in the followingtable: Table 2.1 Public Investmentin Transport,1984185 - 1988189 (P million)
1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987108 188/89
Roads 16.36 26.21 20.40 20.40 29.99 Railways 4.35 13.86 43.83 33.28 130.63 Civil Aviation 16.76 2.95 17.02 8.37 14.91 Other 0.05 0.31 0.08 - 0.30
Total Transport 37.52 43.33 81.33 62.05 175.52
Total Govt. Investment 272.45 292.16 435.18 625.19 797.30
2 of total investmentrepresented by%
Roads: 6 9 5 3 4 Transport: 14 15 19 10 22
Sources Central StatisticsOffice, NFDP, 1989.
2.14 Total investmentsin transportmore than tripled over the five year period, 1984/85 to 1988/89,while total Governmentdevelopment spending approximatelydoubled. Road expenditurescontinued to rise, but the largest inctseasewas in railways. The peak in civil aviation in 1986187 reflects the constructionof Sir SeretseRhama Airport and the rise In railway expenditureBR's takeover of the main rail line from NRZ in 1988.
2.15 Planned public investmentsin transportare shown in Table 2.2 .-below. Investmentsin transport,particularly the road sector,are shown to increasedramatically during the remainderof the NDP6 period, even without inclusionof the trans-Kalahariroad. This reflects the Government'splan to upgrade the road network and provide better access to rural areas.
.7~~~~~~~~~~. -9-
Table 2.2 Planned Public Investmentsin Transport,1989190 - 1990191* (P million)
1989190 1990/91
Roads 85.89 177.44 Railways 46.65 41.49 Civil Aviation 17.97 38.56 Other 0.17 2.19
Total Transport 150.68 259.68
Total Govt. Investment 1,016.19 1,234.60
X of total investmentrepresented bys
Roads: 8 14 Transports 15 21
*Forecastswill be revised and extended to subsequentyears in the course of planning for HDP7.
Source: Central StatisticsOffice, HPDP, 1989.
2.16 Two ministriesplay a role in the developmentof the transpoit sector. The Ministry of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP) is responsible for overall investment planning, while the KWTCis responsible for the development anid coordination of all modes of transport. Consistent with the Government'sdecentralized approach to planning,most ministries have establishedplanning units. The Planning,Research and Statistics t'nit within KWTChas the job of preparing and evaluating the development program and specific projects for inclusion in the NDPs.
C. Bank's Role in the TransDortSector
2.17 The Bank has assisted Botswana's transport development through five loans and credits totallingUS$48.4 million. The First Road Project (Cr. 63-BEC, US$3.6 million), approved in 1964, provided for the design, construction and reconstruction of 570 km of roads, upgrading of sections of the north-south road, and expansion of the maintenance organization. The Second Road Project (Cr. 303-BT, US$2.0 million), approved in 1972, included reconstructionand paving of 80 km of the north-southroad, detailed engineeringand supervisionof additionalroads, and technical assistanceto the Roads Department. The Third Road Project (Ln. 1174-BT, US$5.8 million), approved in 1975, provided for constructionof 52 km of roads, further consultingservices, support for the Roads Training Center (RTC), preparationof a road maintenanceprogram for main roads and a pilot maintenanceprogram for district roads. Continuedsupport for the implementationof these programswas included in the Fourth Road Project (Ln. 1408-BT, US$20.0 million),approved in 1977, which financed further construction,supervision and detailed engineering,and special studies for roads linking the Tuli Block farm areas to the main network and feed?r roads needed to supportagricultural development. The Fifth Road Project - 10 -
(Loan 1941-BT,US$27.0 million), approvedin 1981, included paving of an extensionof the north-southroad to Zimbabwe,improved access to portions of the Tuli Block and adjacent areas, and further strengtheningof RD though constructionof a Soils and Materials TestingLaboratory and road maintenancedepots. In addition,the Bank loan for the Shashe InfrastructureProject (Ln. 776-BT)included constructionof the Serule- Selebi-Phikweroad (52 km) for a cost of US$3.5 million. The Selebi-Phikwe TechnicalAssistance Project (Ln. 2695-BT)provided funds for the engineeringdesign of the two roads in this project.
2.18 Implementationof these projectshas been satisfactory. Although some delays have occurred,the work has been completedand of good quality. The economic rates of return of the first three road projects were on averagebelow appraisalestimates, with the first (5? actual vs. 15Z estimated)because of quarantinerestrictions that depressedtrucking demand, the second (131 actual vs. 19Z estimated)because of delays in RSA cross-borderroads, and the third (12? actual vs. 17? estimated)because traffic growth slowed more than anticipated. Economic returnsof the subsequenttwo road projectswere considerablyhigher than expected (27? vs. 181, and 26? vs. 13?, respectively). The roads have generallybeen well maintained.
2.19 Most Bank lending to Botswsa in the sector has concentratedon financingthe physicalworks and equipmentneeded to improveRD's operationsand training. Bilateralaid agencies have assumed responsibilityfor staffing and training instructors,usually on a low cost or concessionarybasis. Significantprogress has been made in the training of'RD technicians,but indigenizationof posts for technicalofficers and engineershas been slow due to the shortageof candidates suitablefor furthertraining. During recent years there has been a shift in the Bank's strategy away from provisionof infrastructureto providingsupport for human resourcedevelopment, land use planning,urban policy reform, regionaldevelopment, and economic diversificationand employmentcreation. The project will provide infrastructurein supportof the Government's program to promote growth and diversific.tion of the economic base of Selebi-Phikwe and its hinterland, and continue the Bank's previous support in the road subsector of improved planning and management capability.
III. THE ROADSUBSECTOR
A. The Road Network
3.01 At independencein 1966, Botswana had a gazetted road network of about 5,000 km, only 10 km of which were paved. Since then developmentof the road network has occurred at a rapid pace, and the network now totals 8,204 km of officiallygazetted roads and 8,000 km of ungazettedroads and tracks (Table 3.1). About 29 percent of the gazetted roads are paved, 10 percent are gravel,and 61 percent are earth or sand. Most of the paved roads are located in the easternportion of the country, increasinglyto the north, e.g., in the vicinityof Maun, with plans under way for - 11 - upgrading the network in the vest and south (para 2.01). Maintenanceof the gazetted road network is satisfactory.
Table 3.1 Classificationof Gazetted Roads* (kilometers)
Year Bitumen Gravel Earth/Sand Total
1984 1,848 1,285 4,893 8,026 1985 1,885 1,266 4,875 8,026 1986 2,039 1,024 5,087 8,150 1987 2,156 940 5,054 8,150 1988 2,156 940 5,054 8,150 1989 2,360 790 5,054 8,204
*Ungazettednetwork is estimatedto be 8,000 km, all earth and sand.
Sources Roads Department,1989.
3.02 With a surfacearea of 582,000 kz2, the countryhas an average road density of 0.033 km per km2. The coverage of the network is adequate for the country'spresent needs, but most of the roads in rural or remote areas remain unimproved. The ungazettedrural roads, which comprise nearly 50 percent of the total length of all roads, are very poor and often impassableor washed away during the rainy season. Road constructionand maintenanceare difficultthroughout most of Botswana,as a large portion of the country is semi-desert-withpoor sandy soils, and suitablestone and gravel are scarce. In such cases there is a need to upgrade segmentsof the road network even in rural areas and to establishan organizational structureand capabilityto maintain these roads to a satisfactorystandard (para 4.10).
B. Road Use
3.03 The privatevehicle fleet has grown from just over 8,000 vehicles in 1973 to over 55,000 by 1988, 40 percent of which are registered in Gaborone (Fiture3.1). The latter figure includesnearly 10,000 new registrations,of which approximately40 percent were cars, 30 percent light deliveryvehicles, and 10 percent lorries. ReflectingBotswana's economic growth, the vehicle density has risen from 33 per thousand residentsin 1981 to 55 in 1987. - 12 -
Figure 3.1 Motor Vehicle Fleet, 1983-1987
60 .. _a ____ I- Other *Lorries 50 Z LightDelivery M Cars
40 -
30 -
20
10
0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Sources Minimtry of Works, Transportand Communications,1989.
3.04 Regular traffic counts are conductedat least quarterlyat about 45 locationson the gazetted road network. Traffic statisticsare compiled annually and show that traffic is increasingrapidly, on the order of 10 percent per annum over the past five years'andas much as 14 percent from 1987 to 1988. Much of the growth continuesto be in the southeast,where trafficvolumes grew nearly 20 percent during 1987-1988,Aompared with less than 10 percent in the north and a slight decline in the est. However,as these points only capture a portion of the traffic on the expandingroad network, these statistics most likely underestimatethe actual growth in motor vehicle use throughout the country.
3.05 This traffic growth has been accompanied by a significant increase in the number of road accidents,with the number of road accidents reported in police records triplingbetween 1981 and 1988 (Figure3.2). Phase 2 of a Road Safety ImprovementProject, startedin 1988, is presently in the implementationphase. Under this project, a reorganizationin MWTC increasedstaff and strengthenedthe road safety sector,vehicle inspectors and traffic police were trained, reflectivetags were distributedto people in four main centers in the country, and a major public information campaign it under way. The accuracy of accident statistics should improve considerably with the initiation of a new Accident Information System in 1988. Of the 5,000 accidents entered into the new system for 1988, 3 percent were fatal, 10 percent serious,21 percent minor and 66 percent involveddamage of vehiclesonly. Thirty-eightpercent of all accidents Qccurred in the Gaborone area, reflectingthe concentrationof vehicles in that area, and Government vehicles throughout Botswana were found to be involved in accidentstwice as often as other vehicles. In 1988 the fatality rate, persons killed per 1,000 vehicles,was 3.8, among the lowest - 13 - in the regionlbutmore S.han20 times the level of most industrialized, countrlesin western Europe.
Figure 3.2 Road Accidents,1981-1988 6 0QRoedAccedenttl l S~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4-
i3
0 1981 t98 19B3 1984 IM8 1g8 IW 19v8 Sources Road Safety ImprovementProject. Draft Final Rep rt, Phase 2.
3.06 The TranspbrtControl Divisionof MWTC is responsiblefor the regulation of: road transport, including implementation of the Road Transport (Permits) Act (1973), which covers the regulation of passenger transport and haulage, and the Road TrafficAct, which covers registration and licensing of motor vehicles, drivers, and road safety. 'Under the Road Transport (Permits)Act, permits are required for goods vehicles Rsed for hire, for own account if a vehicle'scarrying capacity exceedsthree tons, and for'allvehicles providingpassenger service for hire. P'ermitsare awarded upon receiptof an applicationplus, in the case of for hire service,a public hearing. Short term permits of up tb 3 months in duration'can be grantedwithout a public hearing. Permit holdersmust leep their vehicles in serviceablecondition and keep appropriaterecords. Additional conditionsmay be attached,including restrictions on the route or area in which the vehiclesmay operate. Freight tariffs are not regulated,'butpassenger fares are determinedby the TransportAdvisory Board and have a rigid structure.
3.07 Ovet the past five years the number of licensed goods vehicles has averaged about 1,500 for-hire and 1,000 own-account vehicles. Approximately50 percent of the licensed vehicles in both categories are foreign-owned,most based/in RSA and, to a lesser extent, in Zimbabwe. Of the locally licensedvehicles, approximately 45 percentof for-hire and 65 percent of own-accountare registeredto small operatorswith one or two vehicles. During this same period, the number of permits issued for passenger vehicles (taxis,mini-buses and buses) nearly doubled from about 800 to over 1500.
C. Sector Finances
,~~~~~~~ , 3.08 Road users contributeto Governmentrevenues through-taxes and duties on vehicles,fuel, lubricantsand spire parts, and through license-- - 14 - and vehicle registrationfees. Fees from licensing,registration and road transportpermits, as well as sales taxes on petrol and diesel, are set and collectedby the Government. All other taxes and duties on goods imported into SACU countriesare paid into a common revenuepool; these are distributedaccording to an agreed revenue-sharingformula and are equivalentin effect to a 17 percent levy on all imports.
3.09 As indicatedin Fiaure 3.3, the revenue from road user charges has been inadequate to cover road maintenance expenditures. (A breakdown of road transport revenue by source and expenditures (maintenance, construction and rehabilitation) is included in Annex 2.) In 1988189, road user charges covered only about two-thirdsof total maintenance expenditures,even includingthe significantlygreater receipts from higher fuel taxes (10 thebe (US$0.05)/literon diesel and 13 thebe (US$0.07)/liter on petrol) implementedthe previous year. Even with these higher taxes, the pump price of fuel remains below that of some countries in the region, includingMalawi and, for petrol, Zimbabwe. At the time of appraisal, the pump price per liter of petrol and diesel in Botswanawas 86 thebe (US$0.46) and 70 thebe (US$0.37),respectively (10 or 12 thebe more in the north), comparedwith US$0.68 and US$0.59 in Malawi; US$0.51 (87:13 petroltethanolblend) and US$0.28 in Zimbabwe;and US$0.37 and US$0.26 in Zambia.
Figure 3.3 Road TransportRevenue and Expenditure 250 a Revenue 200 MaintenanceExpenditure TTotal Expenditure
C 150
* 100
50 -lA 50
1984/85 1986/87 1988189 1990/91* 1985/86 1987/88 1989/90* * Estimated Source: TransportStatistics, 1987 and MFDP, 1989.
3.1Q The-last two years shown in Figure 3.3 indicatethat the deficit between road revenues and expendituresis expected to increaseover time. Accordingly,the Governmenthas adopted a new system of road transport permit fees, axle load violationpenalties and surcharges for abnormal loads to replacethe existing fee schedulewhich dates back to 1976. The new fee schedule,adopted this year and reflectedin the road transport _ 15 -
license receipts forecast for 1990/91,establishes fees for transit traffic (movementof goods that neither originatefrom nor are destined to Botswana)and for single trip permits at levels approachingthe cost of damage done to roads by particularweight categoriesof vehicles. Fees for Botswana freight traffic (movementof goods originatingfrom or destined to Botswana)were set at levels below cost in order to encouragecitizen participationin the road haulage industry. Permits for buses and taxis were kept low for the same reason.
3.11 However, in view of the present concern that the growth of revenues from the mining sector will taper off over time (para 1.03), the Governmenthas adopted the general principlethat user charges in each of the transport subsectors should be set in a manner that will cover marginal costs at a minimum and make a contributiontowards meeting full costs wherever possible. In the road subsector,the recent increase in permit fees and fuel taxes representsan importantfirst step in this direction. To continue this progress,a more comprehensiverestructuring of road user fees has been proposed for implementationi.n two stages. The first would provide for recoveryof the full maintenanceand road replacementcost associatedwith transit traffic,and variable maintenancecost for domestic traffic (estimatedto be 85Z of full maintenancecost). The second would extend this to recoveryof full maintenanceand road replacementcost for all traffic. As before, the recoverymethods would includevehicle registrationand permit fees, levies and duties on fuel, and duties on vehicles and spare parts. The Governmentintends to implementthese stages, subjectto the requisitelegislation being passed in a timely manner, by June 1991 and June 1993, respectively. Agreementwas reached during negotiationsthat the Governmentwould continue to implementits plan for this comprehensiverestructuring of road user fees.
D. Administration,Staffing and Planning -
3.12 HWTC (Chart 1) and the Ministry of Local Governmentand Lands (MLGL) share responsibilityfor the constructionand maintenanceof the country'sroads. RD (Chart 2) under MWTC executesworks on the national road=uetwork,which includesall gazetted roads. The other-publicroads in district and municipalareas are the responsibilityof district conacils and town councils under MLGL. RD offers technicalassistance on an ad hoc basis to the councils in their work.
3.13 The main objectiveof RD is to provide adequate road communicationsinfrastructure within the country as well as with neighboring countries. RD is responsible for formulating road development programs, which are subsequently submitted to MFDP for inter-sectoral coordination, approval and funding. RD has six branches for specific functionst(1) Development, (2) Maintenance, (3) Direct Labor, (4) MaterLals and Research, (5) Roads TrainingCenter (RTC), and (6) Department Management. The first five branches are headed by PrincipalRoads Engineersand the sixth by a PrincipalAdministration Officer. RD's headquartersis in Gaborone and the country has been!dividedinto three regions for maintenancepurposes with regionaloffices in Francistown, Gaborone and Maun. - 16 -
3.14 The staffing of RD has expanded rapidly over the last several years. The present number of professionaland technicalstaff is about 180 plus about 70 staff for general administration. In addition,about 1,600 laborersare employed. At the management level in the professionalfield, RD is staffed for the most part by expatriatesfinanced by a number of bilateralaid agencies. However, compared to ten years ago when only one Batswanawas in position out of a total of fourteenprofessional engineers. some progresshas been made in localizingRD. The number of engineering positionshas increasedto 33 of which 10 are now filled with Batswana and 13 with expatriates. RD expects to recruitmore local engineersin the near future and is also consideringengineers from other countriesin the region (Zimbabweand Zambia). The salary level for RD engineers,although not on a par with the private sector in Botswana,is sufficiently attractivethat recruitmentfrom neighboringcountries is not difficult. For technicalofficers, the situationhas greatly improved. Ten years ago, only 4 out of 25 positionswere held by Batswana,whereas at present 72 positionsout of 83 are filled with Batewana,with only 5 expatriatesleft. According to RD's plans, almost full localizationwill be accomplishedby 1992.
3.15 The training of highway engineering technicians, road super7isors and equipmentoperators is carriedout by RTC. The objectives of RTC are to train both employeeswithin RD and new potential candidates from secondaryschools and elsewhere,in order to improve the skills and efficiencyof its staff. Localizationof expatriateposts in RD has been another objective,now largelyfulfilled. RTC offers a 3-year diploma course for highway engineering technicians, a 2-year road supervisor course, and a 7 to 9-week equipmentoperator course held a number of times throughoutthe year. Since 1986, RTC has also been responsiblefor training staff of the districtcouncils in labor-intensivetechniques.
Road Planning
3.16 Road projects are selectedand evaluatedby MWTC's PlanningUnit in close cooperationwith the DevelopmentBranch of RD. The PlanningUnit initiatls,prepare:s and monitors MWTC's developmentprojects in accordance with planned objectivesas rcntainedin the NDP (para 2.16). The DevelopmentBranch is responsiblefor detailed road planning,feasibility and other pre-investmentstudies, coordinationof researchwork and traffic engineering. The National TransportStudy,- completed in 19u5, evaluateda large number of projects and identified over 30 worthwhile road sections, listed in order of priority, for implementation over a ten-year period to 1996. Many of these projects have been completed and five large projects are currentlyunder construction. The list of priority roads is reviewed and-updatedon a regularbasis, but RD recognizesthe need for an in-depth, systematicstudy of the entire road network, including district roads. The study's objectives are to reclassify roads, identifyviable road projects, reorganize maintenance arrangements, and optimize the use of manpower and funds allocated for these activities. The project includes a road - investmentand maintenance study with the above objectives (para 4.10). _ 17 - EnMineerIng 3.17 The DesignSection of RD's DevelopmentBranch is responsiblefor all designaspects of the gasettedroads. Consultantsare usuallyhired for major projectswith the DesignSection being responsiblefor monitoring the consultants'woik and liaisonwith the consultantson all matters concerningthe designand contractdocumentation. Geometric design parametershave been standardized(under a consultantstudy financed under the FifthRoad Project,Ln. 1941-BT)and publishedin the BotswanaRoad DesignManual. Materialsinvestigations, testing and researchservices to all governmentdepartments are undertakenby the Materialsand Research Branchof RD. The Branchalso monitors materials specifications of ongoing construction works being supervised by consultantsfor RD. The officesand laboratories of the Materialsand ResearchBranch are housedin a separate laboratorybuilding constructed under the FifthRoad Project.
Construction 3.18 Most major roadworks are carriedout by foreigncontractors. Contractsare let aftercompetitive bidding based on pricedbills of quantitiesand are supervisedby consultants.RD has a DirectLabor Branch for forceaccount work, which has mainlybeen limitedto constructionand improvementof roadsin remoterural areas. Threemobile construction units are in operation,each fullyequipped with its own fleetof plant and vehicles,for whichthe unit has fullmaintenance responsibility. The localconstruction ii)dustry has concentratedalmost totally on building construction,but a t4w firmsnow have the capacityto undertakesmall and medium-sizeroad projects, especially in urban areasunder MLGL. Maintenance 3.19 RD's MaintenanceBranch is responsiblefor routineand periodic maintenanceof all gazettedroads. In addition,the Branchis responsible for road signsand markings,and controlof axle loadingthrough six permanentweighbridges. Most of the periodicmaintenance work, that is, resealingand regravelling,is carriedout by localcontractors through competitivebidding procedures with some of thiswork being carriedout by units from the Branch. The plantand vehiclesused by RD stafffor maintenanceand otheractivities, except for the DirectLabor Branch, are allocatedfrom the CentralTransport Organization (CTO), a departmentof MWTC. This organizationis responsiblefor both the purchaseand repairof all the equipment.There are severalCTO depotsaround the countrywhere vehiclesmay be filledup with gasolineand be repairedand serviced.The MNintenanceBranch has severalof its own workshopswith mechanicsseconded from CTO. 3.20 While RD has builtup a well-functionIngMaintenance Branch and the gazettedroad network is in generallygood condition,the maintenance of districtand town roadsunder MLGL has becomea problem. The district councils'road-maintenance units are under-equippedand have difficulty maintainingtheir roads adequately, especially in areaswhere population densityis very low. *Atthe districtlevel, a labor-intensiveiroadand improvementproject constructs and successfullymaintains a smallbut grbwing uumber of district roads. However, the dramatic increase in traffic is creating problems everywhere,both for RD and the district councils. The national road network and the districtroads will sometimes require similar types of maintenance,and it is doubtfulwhether two parallel maintenanceorganizations would be the most cost-effectiveway of organizing road maintenance. RD is therefore planning to have these organizational aspects analyzed as part of the road mnvestmeaitand maintenance study under the project.
IV. THE PROJECT
A. Objectives
4.01 The main objectives of the project are tot (a) provide road links necessary for t-he developmentand integration of the Selebi-Phikwe area and its hinterland;(b) strengthenthe capacity of RD to organize and carry out effective road maintenance at the increasedlevel mandated by the expansion of the road network; and (c) improve road planning and programming capability in anticipation of the seventh NDP (NDP7) in 1991. The project objectivesare in line with the Government'sstrategy as outlined in NDP6 and with the Bank's strategyin the sector.
B. Description
4.02 The project comprisesthe followings
(a) constructionof the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road, 134 km, to bitumen standard,including a 10-km spur road to the major village of Kgagodi, and village access roads;
(b) constructionof the Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroad, 66 km, of which about 50 km will he to bitumen standard and the remainder with a gravel surface,including two short access roads to the villages of Molalatau and Mathatbane; and
(c) consulting services fort
(i) constructionsupervision for (a) and (b) above; and
(ii) a study of a new maintenancemanagement/organization system for roads, combinedwith a network planning study.
Constructionof Sefophe-Martin'sDrift Road
4.03 Feasibilitystudies carriedout in 1984 and 1986 of the road system in the Tuli Block region identifiedthe Selebi Phikwe-Martin'sDrift road as the most importantlink in the future road network servingthe area. The first 25-km,sectionof the road from Selebi Phikwe to Sefophe was upgraded to bituminousstandard in 1983 under the Fifth Highway Project. From Sefophe to the south through the project area and to the vest, the existing roads are improvedearth and gravel. In the rain; season these roads frequently become impassable and two major rivars in the ' 19 _ project area, the Tshokana and the Lotsane,present a major break in road communication. The new road will continue south from Sefophebut, instead of taking the direct route to Martin's Drift, will curve westward in a new alignmentin order to serve a number of large villages, includingthe district administrativecenter of Maunatlala. The large village of Kgagodi located to the west of the proposed alignmentwill be linked to the main road through a 10-km long spur road. In addition,short access roads will be provided 'o other villages along the alignment. About 19 km from Martin's Drift, the new road will join the existing gravel road from Palapye to Martin's Drift and follow it for the rest of the way to Martin's Drift. The project location is shown on the map (IBRD No. 22255).
4.04 The new road is estimatedto carry close to 200 vehicles per day in the opening year. It will be constructedwith a 6-m carriagewaywith a bituminous surfacetreatment and with 1-m shoulders,also providedwith a bituminous surface. The design parameters (Table 4.1) are in accordance with the Potswana Road Design Manual for a Type 4 road; however, the shoulder width has been reduced from 1.5 m and the savings will be used to seal the shoulders zo reduce future maintenancecost. The two crossingsat Tshokana and Lotsane rivers will be spannedby reinforcedbridges of total length of 43 m and 54 m, respectively.
Table 4.1 Design Standardsof Sefophe-Martin'sDrift Road
Design life 20 years Design speed 80 kmlh Carriageway width 6 m Formation width 8 m Maximum gradient 6 a Min. horizontalradius 240 m Min. stoppingsight distance 115 m Min. passing sight distance 375 m Maximum superelevation 7 I Road reserve 61 m Pavement design Sefophe-Martin's Drift: El, 0.2-0.8 million ESA Kgagodi Links EO, fewer thani0.2 million ESA
Sogrce: Botswana Road Design Manual, 1982.
Construction of Bobonong-Lekkerpoet Road
4.05 Another road identified in the feasibility studies (para 4.03) as an important link for upgrading to bitumen standard is the road linking the district subcenter of Bobonong to the farming area of Lekkerpoet in the Tuli Block. The road will serve two large villages,Mololatau and Mathathane,along the proposed alignmentas well as the farm of Talana, also in the Tuli Block, and the Mashatu game reserve close to the confluenceof the Limpopo and Shashe rivers. The existing road is a district road from Bobonong to Mathathanewith a 4 m wide gravel surface. The road was constructedin 1980 and reconstructedin 1986 but has since thep received little maintenanceand is now in poor condition. - 20 -
Furthermore,numerous river crossings,including two major ones at the Thune and Selepswe rivers,are encountered,but as no provision for culverts and bridgeshas been made, the road becomes virtually impassable in the wet season;even in the dry season the road is difficult to pass except in four-wheeldrive vehicles. From Mathathaneto Lekkerpoet,where the project road will linlkup with the existing 'FrontlineRoad" (an improvedgravel road runningparallel with the Limpopo river at a distance of about 1 to 5 km from it), there is currentlyno effectiveroad communication,limited access being Pvailableover ill-definedtracks and only negotiablefor travellerswith local knowledgeand four-wheeldrive vehicles.
4.06 The project road is estimatedto arry about 75 vehicles per day in the opening year on the 50-km section t tween Bobonong and Mathathane. Beyond Mathathanethe projectedtraffic drops to about 20 vehicles per day. A detailed pavementmaterials surveyhas shown that there is a scarcity of suitablegravel materials for pavement constri tion in the area (as virtuallyeverywhere in Botswana);deposits of calcretematerials only have been located and long hauls would be required. Extensiveresearch has been carriedout in Botswana regardingthe use of calcrete for base courses on asphalt roads and wearing courseson gravel roads. If the traffic exceeds about 50 to 60 vehicles per day, it is usuallyadvantageous to provide a bituminousseal to prevent the rapid deteriorationand the high maintenance costs that would otherwiseoccur.
4.07 The new road has thereforebeen designedas a Type 5A road (BotswanaRoad Design Manual)with a 5-m carriagewaywith a single bituminoussurface treatment and 1-m shoulders,also sealed to prevent loss of the calcrete materials. On the lightlytrafficked section from Mathathaneto Lekkerpoet,it is expected that the calcrete can hold up until the traffic builds up in future years. Since the design speed for a Type SA road is the same as for a Type 4, namely 80 kmlh, the geometric alignmentdesign parametersfor the entire length of road are the same as indicatedin Table 4.1 for the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road. The pavement would carry fewer than 200,000equivalent standard axles (ESA) over its 20 year design life, which indicatesthat a pavement of Type EO would be adequate. Two major river bridges are includedin the projects the 72-m Thune and the 24-m Selepswebridges, both in reinforcedconcrete.
Status of Prolect Preparation
4.08 RD employedUK and Zimbabwe consultantsfor the detailed engineeringof the Sefophe-Martin'sroad and the Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroad, respectively. This work was completedat the time of appraisalin November 1989. Prequalificationof contractorswas under way with scheduled completionby the end of May 1990.
ConsultingServices
4.09 Supervisionof Construction. Consultantswill be engaged to superviseall civil works. The Governmenthas decided to employ the two design consultingfirms for these services,which is acceptableto the Bank. It is estimatedthat about 150 man-monthsof consultingservices will be required for the supervision. -21-
4.10 Road Investmentand MaintenanceStudy. As mentioned in para 3.16, RD is planning to have an in-depth study carried out of the overall arrangementsfor maintainingthe entire road network. In connectionwith this work, a data base for the network will be establishedthat will be used as the main input for determiningthe optimum level of maintenance efforts, urgradingstrategy, and a phased investmentprogram based on priority considerations. The Bank's HighwayDesign and Maintenance StandardsModel (HDM3) computerprogram for analyzingthe road investment and maintenancestrategy will be an essentialtool in this work. The terms of referencefor the study are availablein the project file. RD has decided to employ consultantsto assist in carryingout the study. The manpower input is estimatedat about 75 man-months.
C. ProJectCosts and Financing
Project Costs
4.11 The total project cost, includingcontingency allowances, is estimatedat P 70.4 million or US$37.6 million,with-a foreignexchange cost of P 49.2 million or US$26.2 million (70? of total cost). The total cost, net of identifiabletaxes and duties, is P 63.6 million (US$34.0 million). Details of the projectcost are shown in Table 4.2. Total cost includes (i) physical contingenciesof 102 of base cost on all items and (ii) price contingenciesamounting to 29Z of base cost plus physical contingencies. The price escalationhas been calculatedbased on the rates shown belows
1989 1990 1991-1995 1996 Local cost 11.5X 8.02 4.9Z p.a. 3.72 Foreign cost -0.41 4.9? 4.9? p.a. 3.7t
4.12 Past disbursementexperience from specificinvestment projects in Botswana suggests that the length of the implementationperiod will be about seven years, and the price contingencieshave been calculatedon this basis. The Governmentis, however, planning to implementthe project over a three to four year period in accordancewith the target implementation schedule (para 4.16), which would reduce the estimatedcost by about 11? or from P 70.4 million (US$37.6million) to P 62.7 million (US$33.5million).
4.13 Cost estimatesfor the road works were based on the average of tender prices for the Mochudi-Sikwaneroad for which bids were received in May 1989. This road is located in the easternpart of Botswana,and the works and terrain are similarto those for the project roads. The cost estimateshave been updated to May 1990 by applicationof the above price escalationfactors. The average costs per km for the road works are as followss
Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road: US$140,000
Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroads
asphalt: US$93,000 gravel: US$82,000 Table 4.2 PW*ct Cost Estl
Foruiat Local Forelem Tdol Local Forelon Lots Exchange Pula Il I Ion _ USS11 lWon
I. CivT I Works A. S.fophe-lartins Drift Road 10.8 23.9 84.2 6.5 ->2.0 18.8 70 . Bobnong-Lokkerpoot Road 3.8 7.8 11.1 1.8 4.2 5.9 70 Subtotal 13. 4JjA ?7.3 - . 70
U1. Consulting Services A. Supervision 0.5 2.2 2.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 80 (6X of I.A and 9) S. Road Investment and ' 0.4 1.3 1.7 0.2 0.7 0.9 so Maintenance Study Subtotal 0.9 .C 4.4 .56 1.8 2.8 a
Total Bass Co t4. 11.2 49. 17.7 255 n
III. Conitingencies A. Phystcal (lIS) 1.5 a.5 6.0 0.0 1.9 2.7 71 B. Price (291) 5.2 10.5 15.7 2.0 5.6 8.4 67 Sub"toal - 140 26.7 IA 7. 11.1 as
TotalProjeet Coot J2 49.2 M.4 11.4 0.2 70
Total (ExcludingTxes 14.4 49.2 t.8 76 26.2 34.0 77 and Duties) _ 23 -
4.14 The cost eutimatesfor the consultingservices for supervision included in the project are based on recent experiencein Botswana,namely, correspondingto about 62 of the estimatedcost of the road works, which is reasonableand in line with experiencefrom other countries in the region. The cost estimatesfor the study are based on recent experiencefrom studiesof a similarnature carriedout in Botswana and neighboring countries.
Financing
4.15 The Bank's contributionto the project is limited to 602 of the expenditures,net of taxes, for Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road, including supervision. The Goverment has sought a loan from BADEA for financingthe Bobonong-Lekkerpoet road, including supervision, and a grant from AfDB for financing the road investment and maintenance study. The proposed financing plan is shown in Table 4.3.
Table 4.3 Financing Plan
Local Foreign Total -- US$ million------
Bank .0 14.9 14.9
BADEA .0 6.4 6.4
AfDB .3 1.0 1.3
Government 11.1 3.9 15.0
Total 11.4 26.2 37.6
D. Implementationand Procurement
4.16 RD will be responsiblefor the executionof the project. A target schedule (Annex 3) for project implementationis based on the expectationthat the Governmentwould be able to award the contractsfor the road works in late 1990 so that the actual constructionwork can begin in early 1991. As mentioned above, prequalificationof contractorswas scheduledfor completiorin late May 1990, so the target schedule is realistic. With a two-year constructionperiod the project is scheduled for completionin early 1993.
4.17 The Bank-financedroad construction,that is, the Sefophe- Martin's Drift road, is estimatedto cost about US$26.0 (including contingencies),and will be carried out under a unit price contract awaraed after internationalcompetitive bidding (ICB) in accordancewith Bank guidelinesfor procurement. The bidding documentshave been reviewedby the Bank and found satisfactorysubject to some minor modifications. The Bobononi-Lekkerpoet road works will also be carried but under a unit price
1) _ 24 - contract,awarded after competitivebidding in accordancewith BADEA regulations. Consultantswill be employed for supervisionand the road investmentand maintenancestudy. For the supervisionservices, the Governmenthas decided to continuewith the design consultants,and the Bank has no objectionto this arrangement.In May 1990, the Governmentwas in the process of finalizingthe supervisioncontract with the consultants. Since the contract includesassistance to RD in bid evaluation,it would have to be made effectivein July 1990, that is, prior to loan effectiveness,and some retroactivefinancing for these serviceswill be necessary. For the road investmentand maintenancestudy. the African Development Bank (AfDB) will provide financing and the AfDB guidelines for selectionof consultantswill apply.
4.18 The procurementarrangements are summarizedin Table 4.4:
Table 4.4 ProcurementMethods and Costs ------US$ million-- --
ProcurementMethod Total ProiectElement ICB LCB Other cost*
I. Road Works
A. Sefophe-Martin'sDrift 26.0 26.0 (14.0) (14.0)
B. Bobonong-Lekkerpoet 8.3 8.3
Subtotal 26.0 8.3 34.3 (14.0) (14.0)
II. Consulting Services
A. Supervisionof I.A and B 2.0 2.0 (0.9) (0.9) B. Road investment and 1.3 1.3 maintenancestudy
Subtotal 3.3 3.3 (0.9) (0.9) Total project costs 26.0 11.6 37.6 (14.0) (0.9) (14.9)
*Figures in parenthesesare the respectiveamounts financed by the Bank
I~ / 1 -~~~~~25-
Z. Disbursements 4.19 -Theloan fundswill be disbursedon the followingbasis: (a) 55S of the totalexpenditures.on road works; and (b) 552 of the totalexpenditures on consultingservices. All disbursementswill be fullydocumented, except payments for contracts totalingless thatUS$40,000, which will be paid under statementof expenditures(SON). Retroactivefinancing of consultants'services will be required,up to an aggregateamount of US$200,000for expendituresincurred beforeloan effectiveness,but afterJune 1, 1990. 4.20 The estimatedschedule of disbursementsof the Bank loan is givenin Table 4.5 below. This scheduleis basedon experiencewith Bank- financed specificinvestment loans in Botswana. At the Government's *request, no special account will be establishedfor the project. Table 4.5 EstimatedSchedule of Disbursements Cumulativedisbursements Bank fiscalyear and at the end of quarter quarter endinR US$ million FY91 June 30, 1991 0.2 FY92 December 31, 1991 0.7 June 30, 1992 2.( FY93 December 31, 1992 3.3 June 30, 1993 5.2 FY94 December31, 1993 7.0 June 30, 1994 8.4 FY95 December 31, 1994 9.7 June 30, 1995 10.8 FY96 December 31, 1995 11.8 June 30, 1996 12.9
FY97 December 31, 1996 14.0 June 30, 1997 14.5 FY98 December 31, 1997 14.9 Closing datet June 30, 1997 - 26 -
F. Accounting,Auditing and ReportingReqzuirements
4.21 Project accountswill be maintainedby RD with separateaccounts for each component. In accordancewith the country'tconstitution, the Auditor General carriesout an annual audit of all governmentaccounts and submits a report to MFDP and the NationalAssembly. The statutory responsibilityis dischargedby carrying out test checks and examinations, and this will be adequatefor the purposes of the project. Audit reports on the project accounts for the Bank-financedpart of the project, includinga separateaudit opinion for SOE, will be submittedto the Bank not later than six months after the end of the fiscal year. At negotiations,agreement was reachedwith the Governmenton the content and timing of quarterlyprogress reports and submissionof the Government's contributionto the project completionreport, in a form satisfactoryto the Bank, not later than six months after the project closing date.
G. EnvironmentalAspects
4.22 The BotswanaRoad Design Manual, in its sectionon alignment selection,contains instructionsfor preservationof national resourcesand archaeologicalsites. In accordancewith these instructions,the design consultantsfor both roads employed the services of environmentaland archaeologicalspecialists to carry out the detailed surveys of the proposed alignments. The specialists'reports and recommendationsare in the project file.
4.23 The environmentalimpact assessmentsconsidered two phases, namely, the constructionperiod and the subsequentoperational period. Several aspects of the environmentwere consideredfor both of these phases, such as landscapequality and geomorphology,existing physical process (erosion,drainage, etc.), air and water quality, sound and visual quality, fauna and flora, and historical,cultural, social and economic factors. The recommendationsfor ameliorationof any impact upon the environmentduring the constructionphase cover a number of items, such as strippingof vegetation,storage of topsoil, protectionof trees within the road reserve,etc., all of which are adequatelycontrolled through the existing RD StandardSpecifications for Road and Bridge Works. However, special referenceis made to the fragile ecosystemsassociated with the riverine vegetationencountered by the route alignments. As this vegetation is rare, specialattention has been recommendedto encouragethe preservationof the sites borderingthe river crossings. Other measures have been proposed for the constructionand post-constructionphases, and specific additionalclauses have been includedunder the Special Provisions section of the contract documents. It is estimatedthat these additional clauseswill not have any significantfinancial implication.
4.24 The archaeologicalsurveys were carriedout in parallel with the alignmentdesign and on several occasionsthe findings resulted in a shift of the proposed alignmentto avoid disturbingparticular sites of archaeologicalinterest. Four such sites were identifledon the Sefophe- Martin's Drift road alignmentand measureshave been proposed for preservationof two of them; on the third site, a comprehensivesurface collectionof artifactswas made and no further action was found necessary, -27- while on the last site mitigation in the form of excavationof the site prior to constructionhas been proposed. On the Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroad, 25 sites of stone age, iron age and historAicinterest were located,of which two sites were proposed for preservationor at least for mitigation (excavation)prior to the construction;two other sites should be excavated and nine sites should be sampledbefore construction. Specialmeasures such as fencing,have been proposed to protect the sites during the constructionphase. Again, these measures are judged to involve only modest expenditures. Furthermore,at negotiationsthe Governmentagreed -- that the road alignmentwould be moved if archaeologicalsites being sampled are shown to be valuable and require costly mitigatingmeasures. In concl..ion,the care taken during the initial alignmentsurvey to avoid archaeologicalsites and to make the'relevantauthority, in most cases the National Museum of Botswana,aware of the presence of sites of importance has proven to be worthwhile.
V. PROJECTJUSTIFICATION
A. General
5.01 Under successiveNDPs, Botswanahas upgraded and expanded its basic road network and strengthenedits road administration. Now that the basic network is in place, NDP6 specificallytargets rural areas and provisionof infrastructureto facilitatespecific development goals. With respectto transport,the plan stresses the need to improve access to areas with agriculturalpotential or opportunitiesfor productiveemployment (para 2.11).
5.02 The project supportsthese objectivesby providing infrastructurenecessary for the successfulexpansion and diversification of the economicbase of Selebi-Phikweand its hinterland. The Sefophe- Martin's Drift road was designed to improveaccess to Selebi-Phikwefor a range of developmentand marketingpurposes, both providingdirect access between the major markets of the Johannesburg-Witwatersrandindustrial complex and Selebi-Phikweand routingtraffic originatingfrom or destined to the north through Selebi-Phikwe. The Bobonong-Lekkerpoetfeeder road will open up an area consistingof rural farms and villages and one large scale irrigatedfarm for furtheragricultural development, as weli as improve access to a game lodge currentlyeasily accessibleby road only from RSA. The improvementand extensionof this road will afford the rural populationbetter access to markets, suppliesand public services.
5.03 Constructionof the two roads is expected to yield a combined sconomic rate of return (ERR) of 15X, with individualERRs as follows: - ERR
Sefophe-Martin'sDrift 16 Bobonong-Lekkerpoet 12 - 28 -
No ERR has been calculatedfor the maintenancemanagement system,which will improve the organizationalstructure for road maintenanceand help RD meet the maintenancechallenge of a rapidly expandingroad network.
B. Economic Evaluation
5.04 The economicjustification of the two roads is based on an assessmentof the economic costs and benefitswith and without the project over the estimatedeconomic life of the roads. However, each road's economic rationalediffers in some respects,as the roads will serve differentfunctions and benefit differentgroups within the area. For the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road, a main road providinga more direct route between activity centers, the principalbenefits will be savings in vehicle operatingcosts. These benefitswill accrue largely to individualsand road transporterswho use the road. As the road transportindustry in Botswana is competitiveand free of tariff controls,cost savingswill be passed on to business and industrialenterprises and to farmers served by the road in the form of lower prices for goods and services.
5.D5 The Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroad is a developmentroad that will help to integrateseveral small villages,small dryland farms, a large scale irrigatedfarm and a game reserve into the Botswana road network. Given the rural nature of the road, the economic justificationis based on traffic benefits and producer surplus arising from agriculturaland tourism developmentin the area. The remotenessand inaccessibilityof the area has suppressedsuch developmentand the road. which will follow recent improvements to telecommunications and the ongoing extension of the electric supply grid to the area, will reduce the major constraints to development. Accordingly,significant benefits are expected from incrementalagricultural production, increased livestock sales and greater use of tourist facilities. The beneficiariesrange from subsistence farmersand villagersalong the road who will have $Wproved access to agriculturalextension services and markets to BDC through its ownership in Talana Farm and Hashatu Game Reserve.
Sefophe-Martin'sDrift Road
5.06 The economic costs comprise the cost of construction, supervisionand physical contingencies,as well as maintenancecosts incurred to keep the road in serviceablecondition over its economic life. Costs are net of taxes and price :ontingencies.The principaleconomic benefits consist of savings in vehicle operating costs and avoided maintenance costs. The vehicle operating costs were based on vehicle operating cost factors for Botewana and the differentialin vehicle operating costs between the present gravel and dirt tracks for existing traffic and the new road of paved standard, and between the present longer route and new road for diierted traffic (Annex 4). Avoided maintenance costs also pertain because, although the new road will only generally follow existing gravel and dirt roads in the area, these roads play an important regional distribution role and would have to be maintained in the absence of the new road.
5.07 The traffic forecasts used to estimate savings in vehicle operating costs were derived from baseline counts, an origin-destination - 29 -
survey conductedalong the road and at border posts, informationon past trends, and growth rates consistentwith conservativeforecasts that take into account such factorsas proximityto activitycenters, estimated future geographicaldistribution of populationand employment,and growth in GDP. Although traffic overall in Botswanahas been growing an average of 10? per year (para 3.04), cars and vans on the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road are forecast to increase 7.5X per annum over the first ten years and all other traffic 52, with all traffic increasing52 per annum thereafter. A 202 jump in existing trafficwas assumed in the opening year, based on country-wide experience reported in the Botswana Road Design Manual. The traffic assignment used to estimate diverted traffic was carried out on the basis of the origin-destinationsurvey.
5.08 Based on these assumptions,the ERR for the Sefophe-Martin's Drift road is estimated to be 16Z (Annex 5). Although the traffic growth rate is conservative in view of the significant growth in the industrial base of Selebi-Phikwe being realized under the Selebi-Phikwe Technical AssistanceProject (paras.1.11-1.12), the sensitivityof the estimate to cost overruns,depressed traffic growth and delays in implementationwas also evaluated. Even the assumptionof a combined 15? increase in total costs and 152 lower trafficbenefits (due to lower traffic growth or lower operatingcost savingsper vehicle) failed to reduce the ERR below 12X. If the implementationperiod were to extend to 7 years, the typical implementationprofile for Bank projects in Botswana,the ERR would drop slightly to 15? (Annex 6).
Bobonong-LekkerpoetRoad
5.09 The analysis of constructionand maintenancecosts of the Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroad and of vehicle operatingcost savings essentially follows that of the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift road. However, in view of the rural nature of the Bobonong-Lekkerpoet road, annual traffic growth was assumed to be 5? for all types of vehicles subsequentto the opening of the road, after an initialjump of 20X for existing traffic in the openingyear (para 5.07). In addition,a range of developmentbenefits were assessed, includingdryland and irrigatedcrop production,livestock production and tourism, under the assumptionthat the remotenessand inaccessibilityof the area has suppressedsuch development.
5.10 The analysis of agriculturalpotential in the area of influence of the road shows three areas in which improved road access would be likely to stimulateagricultural production: large scale irrigatedcrop production,small to medium scale irrigatedcrop production,and livestock production. Conversely,the impact of a road on ctrylandcrop production was deemed to be negligible. Although the road will improve access to agricultural extension services, it passes through an area with low and unreliable rainfall and poor soils; dryland crop failures are frequent and the technicalbasis for changes in production is limited. -
5.11 Large scale irrigatedcrop production. BDC operates Talana Farm, a modern irrigationfarm with about 400 ha of arable land at the junction of the Motloutseand Limpopo rivers. The main crops currently grown are cotton, maize, potatoes and other vegetables. However, the remoteness of the farm has made it difficult to attract and retain skilled - 30 - management,and this has adverselyaffected its financialperformance. Discussionswith BDC, Talaua Farm managementand an independentassessment indicate that, given improvedaccess, BDC would be prepared to increasethe farm's productionof higher value vegetablecrops and establisha 50 ha citrus unit. Plans also exist for Talana II, a major expansionof the existing operation. However, as a specific timetableand investmentplan have yet to be finalized,this major expansionwas not consideredin the assessmentof the road, even though the existenceof the road would facilitatethe developmentand could well bring its implementationforward.
5.12 Small to medium scale irrigatedcrop production. In addition to Talana Farm, there are about 10 small to medium scale irrigatedfarms that produce from about 1 ha of citrus inter-croppedwith vegetablesto about 20 ha used in part for watermelon and vegetableproduction. Only modest benefits are anticipatedfrom this source. as all of these farms face a range of water supply, technical and marketingproblems. While the road will help to resolve locationalproblems, additional assistance in the form of credit, input supply, technologyand marketingwill oe required to realize the full potentialof these farms.
5.13 Livestockproduction. In addition to a positive impact on agriculturalproduction, the new road influencesan area containingabout 20 percent of the current regionalpopulation of about 170,000 cattle and 180,000 sheep and goats. Improvedroad access is likely to have a small but positive impact on cattle production. This would arise from increased purchasesof feeder cattle from traditionalowners by Tuli Block ranchers for growingifattening,and increasedsales from these ranches to the BotswanaMeat Commission (BMC) for slaughter. In addition,there is greater potentialto increaseand furthercommercialize goat production followingimproved road access. This would require some organizationaland marketing assistance,but could lead to a substantialincrease in sales of smal stock and local cash income,as well as a reduction in grazing pressure and relatedenvironmental benefits.
5.14 In the assessmentof net benefits associatedwith incremental agricultureand livestockproduction, incremental development and overhead costs have been included as costs and estimatedbenefits (annualvalue added) are net of incrementaltransport costs. In addition,a small increase in occupancyrate of the game reserve is anticipated,as road access from Botswana presentlyis difficultand most guests either fly in at substantialcost or enter the reserveby road via RSA.
5.15 Based on this assessment,the ERR for the Bobonong-Lekkerpoet road is estimatedto be 12Z (Annex7). In view of the potentialmarketing problems, the sensitivityof the overall estimate to a large reductionin agriculturalbenefits was evaluated. Re4uctionsin agriculturalbenefits of 30a and 50X were tested, causing the ERR to drop to 112 and 102, respectively. A 151 increasein all costs, includingroad constructionand maintenanceas well as agriculturaldevelopment costs, reducedthe ERR to 112. However, if all costs were 151 higher and all benefits 152 lower than expected,the ERR would drop to 92. An implementationperiod of 7 years' would yield an ERR of 111 (Annex,8). -31-
C. Risks
5.16 The principalrisk is that full realizationof agricultural benefits associatedwith the Bobonong-Lekkerpoetroad may not occur without improvedhorticultural marketing and supplymanagement. Although the physical environmentalong the lower Motloutse river is suitable and technicalproduction skills exist within BDC, SPRDU and elsewherefor profitablefruit and vegetableproduction, more skillful grading,packaging and supply managementwill be necessaryif local producersare to capture a larger share of the growing demand in Botswana. To reduce this risk, the Governmentagreed at negotiationsto prepare an agriculturaldevelopment plan for the region by September1991, and take steps to facilitate implementationof the plan. It was also agreed that early Bank supervision missionswill include an agriculturalspecialist to review and possibly assist in preparationof the agriculturalplan.
VI. AGREEMENTSREACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6.01 During negotiationsagreement was reachedwith the Governmenton the following:
(a) that the Governmentwill continueto implementits plan for the two-stageprogram for cost recoveryfrom road users (para 3.11);
(b) that contractsfor Bank-financedcivil works will be awarded in accordancewith the Bank 'Guidelinesfor Procurementunder World Bank Loans and IDA Credits' of May 1985 (para 4.17);
(C) that consultantswill be employedon terms and conditions satisfactoryto the Bank (para 4.17);
(d) that retroactivefinancing will be required,at an aggregate amount not to exceed US$200,000 (para 4.19);
(e) that all project accountswill be auditedby the Auditor General and that the Auditor's report for the Bank-financedcomponents will be submittedto the Bank not later than six months after the end of the fiscal year (para 4.21);
(f) that MWTC will supply quarterlyprogress reports on the basis of outlines agreed with the Bank (para 4.21);
(g) that MWTCwill prepare, not later than six months following completionof the project, Part II of a Project Completion Report on the basis of an outline to be agreed with the Bank (para 4.21); and
(h) that the Governmentwill prepare an agriculturaldevelopment pla, for the Selebi-Phikwe/TuliBlock region by September1991, _ 32- subjectto the Bank'sreview, and take stepsto facilitateits Izmplementation(para 5.16).
4.02 5he project18 suitable,fora Bank loa, of US$14.9 million equivalent,on standardterms, to Botswana.
.1 /
I*
:.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~: - 33 - Annex 1 Page 1 of 2
BOTSWANA
TULI BLOCK ROADS PROJECT
Related Documentsand Data Available in the Proiect File
A. Reports Related to Regional and AgriculturalDevelopment
1. Ministry of Finance and DevelopmentPlanning, 'National DevelopmentPlan, 1985-91,"December 1985.
2. -----, 'MidtermReview of NDP6," September1988.
3. Ministry of Agriculture, "Agricultural Sector Assessment, A Strategy for the Developmentof Agriculturein Botswana," May 1989.
4. -----, "AgricultureSector Assessment,A Strategy for the Future Developmentof Agriculturein Botswana,Lxecutive Summary," May 1989.
5. R.M. Jelley, 'Bobonong-LekkerpoetRoad, Effect of Road on Local AgriculturalDevelopment," Supplementary Report, June 1989.
6. J.F. Wrigley, 'Agr__ulturalDevelopment Along the Bobonong- LekkerpoetRoad," Draft Working Paper, January 1990.
B. Reports Related ;o the TransoortSector
1. Ministry of Works, Transport and Communications, "Annual Report for the Period 1st April 1986 to 31st March 1987 and 21 Years of Progress1966 - 1987," 1988.
2. -----, StatisticsUnit, 'TransportStatistics 1987," May 1989, and "TransportStatistics 1988," February 1990.
3. Ministry of Local Governmentand Lands, "LabqurIntensive Road Programme,Report on Status and Progress,April - September 1988," October 1988.
4. Roads Department,"Roads in Botswana,"June 1987.
,5. Ministry of Works, Transport and Communications,Roads Department, "RoadDesign Manual," 1982.
6. SweRoad, "Road Safety ImprovementProject." Draft Final Report, Phase 2.
C. Reports Related to the Proiect
1. Hoff & OvergaardAIS, "BotswanaNational TransportPlea (Stage II)," Two Volumes, Final Report and Appendices,October 1983 I1 -34 - Annex 1 Page 2 of 2
2. Brian Colquhoun,Hugh O'Donnelland Partnsrtsin associationvith ColquhounTranportation Planning, 'EconomicReview of the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift Road,' Final Report, September1989.
3.-____, 'FinalReport on the EngineeringDesign,* October 1989.
4. -----, 'Constructionof the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift Road and AssociatedWorks, Contract Documents,"October 1989:
Volume I s Informationto Tenderers Volume II s Conditionsof Contract Volume IV I Special Provisionsand Bill of Quantities Set of Tender Drawings
5. ------'EconomicReview of the Sefophe-Martin'sDrift Road, Economic Vehicle OperatingCost and Producer SurplusAnalyses," October 1989.
6. ZMCR ConsultingEngineers, 'Consultancy Study, Viability of Roads in the Tuli Block,* SupplementaryStudy, Two Volumes, Final Report and Appendices,June 1986
7. -----. ' Bobonong-Lekkerpoet Road, Final Report on the Economic Review,' October 1989.
8. --_--. *Bobonong-Lekkerpoet Road, Final Report on the Engineering Design,' October 1989.
9. ------'Archeological Impact Assessment,Bobonong-Lekkerpoet Road,' prepared by C. van Waarden, Marope Research,February 1989.
10 -.----. -Bobonong to Lekkerpoet Road Improvement Scheme, Environmental Impact Assessment,* (undated).
11. ---- , 'Construction of the Bobonong-LekkerpoetRoad and Associated Works, Contract Documeats, October 1989:
Volume I2 s Conditionsof Contract
12. Roads Department,'Terms of Reference for the Botswana Road MaintenanceStudy,' Draft, April 1990
2~~~~~~~~~~ BOTSWAIA TULI BLOCK ROADS PROJECT
Road TransportRevenue and Expenditure (P thousand)
Revenue Ependitu e(Roads) Motor Drivers Road main- Vehicle Transport Fuel tenanceConstruc- Rehabili- Year Licenses Licenses Taxes Totall (*) tion tation Total
Actuals .l 1984/85 1550 196 1974 3720 a 6869 16360 23229 1985186 2092 278 2413 4783 I 9883 26210 36093 1986187 .2065 225 1169 3459 0 25870 24700 50570 1987188 2782 777 14154 17713 i 27982 20400 .48382 1988189 3091 458 11840.13639 j 31605 29989 61594 £
Estimated: l 1989190 3310 500 10090 13900 f 40441 80140 5750 126331 1990191 3600 2500 12225 18325 550165 161472 15968 227605
*includesall RD overheadexpenses, a small portionof which would be attributable to non-maintenanceactivities.
Sources TransportStatistics, 1987 and )FDP, 1989.
. .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
:4 BOTSWANA TUUBLOCK ROADS PROJECT TargtsnSn chedule
ims 1990 - - 10 1092 - - 1598 ACTtRff ACTKM - - - ay_ FM N.J AS FM MJ J S8 O N AFMAUJOJ F A8S01J F MJ AS OD
,1.1~~~~~~QOT1AW_____.__'
BOAHSDPKM_ATOI m .
LOANACIUEEIT OW a v
am.~ ~ ~ ~~Cm EVALUATIONAND AWAIlD . _ l_ANI. OONThU11O CNlIlR _--_ ____ - - _ ZCOSll8E0CE4 ' . . 0O
TOR GOVMiK SWIBUONOFPROPOSALS CONm SYVAATIOANDAWAtD GOVIMSC CONULTNGSERVIC CON _ _ ** a. ma
IoR, i amT LS GtRIUUIONOFPOROOMS CONSB EVALUATIONANED AWA'D OVT. COILTS , _- - =E_ _:
may 1990 eKV'4- X 371 Annx 4 1 -;;;-1~~~~~~~~~~F=go-o2
nu BO ROADSPROJECT -/ ECLE Ma ,CSTS
BAS1CRUNN2hO COSr (ThabeIVehtele bd PASS mII CARS LDV'- LOV's BUS . M'-. Y V'e P'45U5
Flnancial Coat. Fuel 6.62 9.86 11.251 12.65 16.26 29.58 86.68 28.20 ofl 0.82 0.4S 0.59 08.9 0.89 1.19 1.19 S."9 Tire. 0.907 2.88 4.78 4.78 7.17 21.65 84.oa 9.28 MaLntenanceParts 2.19 8.76 6.21 7.65 9.70 16.88 17.89 11.94 Labor 2.19 3.78 6.21 7.65 9.79 15.86 17.09 11.94
2.50 20.69 26.99 88.27 45.78 68.86 186.24 57.24
EconomicCoete Fuel 6.19 8.81 19.65 12.26 17.68 20.46 86.26 22.87 Oil 0.82 0.45 0.59 9.50 9.00 1.19 1.49 0.89 Tires 0.97 2.68 4.78 4.78 7.17 21.66 84.08 9.28 MaintenanceParts 2.19 8.76 6.21 7.68 9.70 15.86 17.98 11.94 Labor 2.19 8.78 6.21 7.65 9.70 15.38 17.09 11.94
11.78 19.65 28.59 82.62 45.68 62.08 104.94 6S.42
BASICFIXE COSTStThe beVAblcle HO)
Financial Cost. Depreclation 91.70 128.89 161.76 509.71 87.690'88.12 1189.17729.48 Interest and 71.18 82.59 105.72 288.68 198.64 524.10 689.40 564.87 Insurance Crew - 860.00 908.99 206.60 60.90 785.68 868.60 844.00 Licence 1.84 1.96 4.58 6.28 18.00 25.40 85.48 18.97 Overhead - 61.67 204.68 842.94 865.46 759.961954.67 579.56
171.28652.81 666.891886.91 1499.92 298.17 877.61 2217.07
EconomicCost. Depreciation 98.70 126.60 161.76 609.71 807.69 868.12 1189.17 720.48 Interee and 71.18 82.69 105.72 288.88 198.64 524.10 688.40 468.67 Insurance ? Crew - 160.00 890.00 296.98 ea.00 785.68 868.80 844.09 Licenses ------_ Overhead - 81.87 204.88 842.48 M88.48 50.96 106i.5 679.65
160.88470.85 862.s81861.68 1486.02 2672.77 8742.14 2199.69
. . . .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
vi _ 38 - A f 2
PASS NZI CARS WV'S LOv*S VA1 Nov NOV'SO ssWSE
Bituson (St, R2 5M0) Ann. dlstance nnn/ke 18,000 24,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 60,000 72,000 66,000 Runningco t/Ka 11.78 19.65 26.50 J2.82 45.06 62.03 104.94 61.42 P/ann 2,120 4,716 8,570 19,690 21,088 49,216 75,569 57,286 TimeCo" t/ht 169.56 470.86 862.86 1881.08 1406.92 2872.77 8742.14 2199.89 P/ann 8,3 9,407 20,6097 41,449 40,14? 66,168 112,264 5,990 'ToteI Co"s P/ann 5,651 14,122 29,274 61,139 61,765 136,401 187,828 10$,238 t/kl 80.65 6.U4 07.56 101.90 128.72 225.67 260.07 156.41 Cravat (OB, R7 500) Ann. distance ann/ka 17,000 22,000 27,000 50,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 56,000 Runntng cost, t/ke 19.48 82.41 47.16 54.16 66.49 120.99 164.79 38.22 P/ann 8,304 7,131 12,730 27,074 26,507 60,497 92,074 45,7o time co" t/k 160.66 470.35 682.80 1881.68 1486.92 672o77 8742,14 2160.60 P/ann. 8,396 9,407 20,60s 41,449 40,147 06,168 112,264 O5."7 Total co" P/ann. 6,702 16,5s 88,485 60,562 66,744 146,680 205,188 111,767 t/ka 80.42 75.17 128.18 187.05 16.860 298.86 841.00 208.21 Earth/Sand (EIU,R12000) Ann distance ann./k 15,650 19,500 26,000 88,000 81,000 88,000 46,0CO 42.000 Running coet t/k- 26.88 48.1 68.0 78.88 6S.77 166.00 100.6" 10or.4 P/ann. 4,000 s,562 14,608 27,587 26,567 9,808 01,65 46.061 Tim cost tn/k 109.88 470.85 862.86 181.68 1486.02 2872.7 8742.14 2199.69 P/ann. 8,t80 9,407 20,097 41,440 40,147 66,168 112,264 U6,907 Total cost P/ nn. 7,478 17,#69 85,80 69,821 6,734 145,480 204,105 111,078 t/1t. 48.26 92.15 158.89 162.42 216.27 8S2.s6 448.71 264.47
!
/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - 39 - ANNEX6
BOTSWANA TULI BLOCKROADS PROJECT
ECONOMICANALYSIS - SEPOPHE,ARTIN'SDRIT ROAD
ROADMAIfTENNCE TOTAL VOCSAVYINS TOTAL CAPITAL WITH /OUT ROAD --- TRAFFIC NET YEAR COSTS PROJECT PROJECT COSTS NORMALDIVERTED BENEFITS BENEFITS 1 as0 86930 -8580 2 13120 as 91 1808s 208 208 -12657 S 11160 142 a85 11887 622 012 1184 -gm 4 142 855 -213 1845 2118 4090 4228 5 142 855 -218 195? 2297 4254 44a7 6 142 86 -218 2075 2488 4518 4726 7 142 855 -218 2201 2568 4789 3182 * 142 2715 -2573 2886 274? so88 7866 9 . 142 865 -213 2479 2910 5 6608 i 2886 855 2681 2386 8997 572? a8s1 11 142 866 -218 2792 8288 6060 6298 12 142 366 -218 2964 8498 6457 0676 18 142 271 -2678 8112 8668 6718 0858 14 142 486 -848 8266 85l 7119 7465 is 142 466 -848 8481 4648 7474 7820 16 142 488 -846 8on 4246 7849 0196 17 2886 488 2888 8788 4458 8241 S648 16 142 2715 -2578 8896 4681 8577 111S5 19 142 488 -848 4691 4916 9608 98g2 20 142 621 -479 4296 s51l 9467 9986 21 142 021 -479 4510 5418 O926 19407 22 -13120 142 621 -18699 47?8 s59 30420 24996 NPY(106) 15610 ERR 161 Rood ostoo .lX: 14 Traffic benrfit. -151: 14 Al* coat .153 £All benoite -l15: 12
SOURCE:MWrC, RD and BSnk Mission
.~~~~~~~~~~~ - 40 - ANNEX0
BOTSWANA TUU BLOCltROADS PROJECT ECONOMICANALYSIS - SEFOPNEeMARTIN'SDRIT- RO DI CASEOF DEY
ROADMAINTENACE TOTAL VOCSAVINGS TOTAL CAPITAL WmH OUT ROAD ------AFFIC NET YEAR COSTS PROJECT PROEa COSTS NORMALDIVERTED NEflTS w mNEFT 1 1140 1640 -10 2 5576 -S570 a 8200 8200 -6200 4 5904 07 281 6140 208 26 -5562 6 4592 92 147 4517 $22 612 114 -8888 6 4926 112 249 4784 1845 2166 4010 -774 7 1966 188 884 1768 1967 g9m 42U 2486 8 142 855 -213 2675 2488 4518 4726 9 142 8S5 -213 2201 2588 4789 6392 is 142 271 -2673 2330 2747 5608 7065 1i 142 850 -218 2479 2916 6896 Se68 12 2686 856 2581 2880 8907 5727 819 18 142 855 -218 2792 8260 a00 62m8 14 142 486 -840 2964 8408 S4647 608 15 142 2715 -2657 8112 86am 078 9385 10 142 488 -846 8288 851 7119 7465 17 142 486 -840 8481 4948 7474 7820 1s 142 460 -840 3B88 4240 7849 0105 i9 2866 486 2898 8768 4456 6241 5848 go 142 2715 -2578 8#96 4061 t77 11156 21 142 021 -479 4901 4915 9004 9435 22 -18120 142 021 -13599 429W 510l 94C7 283O6 NPV(U"M Ms?8
Road co .155: 18 Trufflc be it. -l15s 18 Al I ct. .165 A el I b. nIts -155: 11 _l AseAus * 7-ryos t. s period. SOURCEsMWIC, RD and Bank Visslon TULI KLOCMROADS POJCT ECNOIC ANAYSIS- _OA D
RD MAINTEIANCIE TALANCITRUS t : SMALLRIGATION : : ROAD - -- TOTAL IET s:V- :IWtOVE-:LTYE- :TOTAlTOTAL NET : TIAL CAP'LW1 WOUTROAD TRAIC TRAFFICt amSS NET: TALANA: IROSSNET :STOCK sACRICACRIC ACRIC: NET WEM COSTS OJ POJ COSTS38N3IT BEEI sCOSTMARIN D : CROPS:COST MAROGI CEII sPROOTOUIISM:COST BENFIT SEMWIT:DEN ITS t 3: : :_ __0 _6 6 -481_ I JU2 U -gm : t -9116 s s gs 0 98m : -481 2 4813 49 4C 4821 186 -415 * 190 -19 8a s s :190 O -110 : -4206 8 2419 19 90 424 467 -19Ms -2 s 160t 76 9 -61 20 46 s21 236 -365 -203 4 470 141 I8t 45 532 47n 2 -2 : 244 : 70 18 -52 40 81 t:27 383 U 18: 1" 6 141 12 9 56 s70? -a -10 t BO 67s 27-43t 60 126: 128 406 379: 9C8 * 141 182 9 6 614 Of -s It s:0 J 6 -84: 80 169 :126 651 681: 1146 7 444 132 811 "61 4 0: 15 1H: s366 7 58 -17:1W 169:120 838 710 : UP67 J 141 182 9 79 t :5 206 2W: 608: s 4 64 : 120 1609: g60ot 919: 1618 9 68671 -701 748 1440: 06 a0 MW: w8: 88 88 s 120 169:560 108 1036.: 248? 19 141 12 9 79C 7Mt o 4 4*: 3 6: 96 986 120 19 i6 0 120 115: 193 it 141 182 9 846 t3? so 40 4: 866: 116 116 : 126 1609 60 1226 1170: 200W 12 141 182 9 on0 6. So: 40 4W 3 1oo 1106 120 169 :C 1285 1186 : 2076 18 141 182 9 95 9 4 a: 406 4W s 866 142 142 : 120 169 60 1247 1197: 2146 14 141 182 9 116 160:09 461 4: w66:8 151 15 120 1I s0 1266 1206: 2216 1s l6l 1266 -217 184 1861 :6 450 4W: 3s66: 157 167: 120 109: 5 1262 1212: 2613 16 141 182 9 1154 1146 s :0 460 400 366 163 1O 120 160: 1266 12165 2330 17 141 182 9 1229 1220 : 06 460 4 s: 36 166 l18 s 120 169 s 60 1206 1215 : 2416 1s 141 182 0 1M6 1299 06 406 40: 3 too 16 : 120 169 60 1266 1215 : 2614 19 141 182 9 180 18 t :o 46 4 :0 36s: sw 16 t 120 19 60 1266 1215 : 2699 26 141 132 9 14U 147 t 60 46 4W : s66 16 13 : 120 169 t 60 1286 1216: 2681 21 96 1233 -378 154 191iO 4 4 0: 36U: 166 1a:12I 169 s CO 1265 1215: 816 22 141 132 9 163 1676: U 40 40: 386: 16 16 120 169: 5S 1260 1215: 2003 28 -4416 141 182 -440 17M6 8 :-s 406 :t M s -7 1ee 2806 120 16 :-420 1266 166 t 7802 NPV(Il) 2126 ERR: 125 Roa cost .153 11 Agric.coot #1615: 12 AlI cost .15: 11 x Trafficbenfit. -155:11 t Agric. b-ne Its -155: 11 Aspic. beflt. -366 11 Aric. boweIt. -6: 10 AI beneflt.-1511s 11 Al I cost. .151 A *II elit. -1_C: 9
SOaRCE: TC, RD mndBank mislson TULI BLOCKRomDS PROJECT ECW4ONICANALYSIS - OSONG-LEKKERPOETRO - IN CASEOF DELAY /
ROD MAVINTANC t TALANACrIRUS _ : SMALLIRRIGATION : ROD TOTAL ET t :: --- LIVE- -TOTALTOTAL NET : TOTAL CAP'LwIH /WT no TRAFFICRAPnIC s CROSS NET: TALANA GROSS NET :STOCK :AJRIC AGRC ACRIC: NET YEAR COS PROJ PROJ COStS NIT BNIT :COST MARIN C01: CROPSsCOST MRIN BE :PRODNTOURLSS:COST BENEFIT BEIEFIT:BENEFITS s s- $611sa ------:------s------1_ 562 55i2 42: s : : : O O O s52 2 1Sfl 1676 -16 968 -986 : * -906 : -2664 8 271F 2701 -701 S199 -190 s s s190 0 -19: -2951 4 10o so a2 10"2 M6 -16 -29: s :2 2 -20 - -19 * 1546 92 6 1552 $71 -11" *2" -2 s 80 s:7 9 -01 : 2 : 270 109 -11 : -1842 0 1057 111 1U 1604 474 -1190 s6 -a -18 0 10 :9t 18 -62 : 40 : 29 138 16 : -1172 7 608 141 182 072 0 -61 go -560 : 244 : 70 27 -4 : Of 46 S 120 817 265 : 206 6 141 182 0 78 094 560 160 1o s 86 70 8 -84 : 80 81 : 120 713 693 : 1267 9 444 182 12 746 46 :60 260 200 860: 70 68 -17 : 1le 126 : 120 896 776 : 1211 10- 141 132 0 7 7 s06 8660as860 : 4 4 : 120 169 : 60 19 9l: 1805 11 67 1288 -701 04 1647: 6 460 40f : 800 : 88 88 s 120 109 : 116e 1130 : 2085 12 141 t82 9 8we 89s6: 46 40: 866: 95 96: 120 109: 60 1200 110: 2904 18 141 182 0 906 849 :6 46 400 : 86 : 116 116 : 120 169 : S0 1220 1179 : 2119 14 141 182 9 1e0i 19 60 4W6 4B0: 86 6 180 180: 120 109: 60 1236 1186: 2194 16 141 182 9 1084 17565 s 460 400: 80: 142 142: 120 169: 60 1247 1197: 2272 10 141 182 9 1164 1145 560 4C6 400s 86 : 161 161 : 120 109 : S0 1256 1209 : 2351 17 105 121 -217 1229 1446 :0 45 400: s86: 1S7 167 120 169 : 59 1262 1212 : 2650 16 141 182 9 16 120 s 560 4560 400s 80o 180 1 :120 1609: 1266 1215 : 2614 19 141 182 9 1808 18B4 5 68 456 400 no8s 180 100 120 169 :W 12s6 1216 : 2699 29 141 182 9 1486 147 t 60 4S6 406 866: 16 1to: 120 169 :5 1265 1216: 2691 21 141 182 9 1584 1575: 0 4560 490 a"6: 189 1 26 169 60 1266 1216: 2790 22 141 182 9 160? 1067 6: 46 400: 860: 160 19 :129 169 :0 1265 1216: 2893 28 -4416 89 120 -4766 1790 06M :-IW 460 6 : Bw -70 189 280 120 1609:-420 1266 168: 0271 NPV(19) 1809 ERR: 1lX
Row Cent 41651: 10 Agrc. co lCS: 11t: AlI coe .161: 1i Traffic benefto -155: 11 oo Agrc. bwnefit. -151: 11 A9ric. benefit. -W 10 Agric. benefits -65: 10 All b.e.ftit.1511: 19 All coat. .16%1*11 all beneIt. -161: 9
SUE: TC* adar lBo tMtls pei od. SOURCEs tiC, RD and Bank llsslon -43- ~~~~~~~Chart1.
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