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Proposals for the National Security Strategy Sven Biscop & Nina Wilén

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Proposals for the National Security Strategy Sven Biscop & Nina Wilén No.No. 1 43[ ] April[Date] 2021 What Belgium Can Do: Proposals for the National Security Strategy Sven Biscop & Nina Wilén EU, or through NATO or the UN, or sometimes Belgium has never had a National through an ad hoc coalition. But if Belgium wants Security Strategy: a single strategic vision these multilateral players to act timely and outlining how to safeguard its national adequately, and take specific Belgian interests interests from external threats and into account, it must push them into action. It challenges and to prevent the exploitation must define its priorities for these international of its internal vulnerabilities. Many in organisations, identify the right course of action, Belgium intuitively feel that none is and convince likeminded states to join initiatives needed: Are we not shielded by the EU under the most relevant flag. However, other and NATO? And what could the world states and organisations will only rally around a expect from this small country anyway? credible actor: one who first of all takes his own But the fact is that the Kingdom of security and defence seriously. On specific issues, Belgium is not such a small player. The or when international organisations fail to act, geopolitical heart, and the host, of the EU, Belgium will, of course, still undertake national it ranks 9th out of 27 in terms of action. That is why Belgium too needs a National population and GDP; worldwide, it is the Security Strategy. 12th exporting country. Hence recurring At times, Belgium has played a leading role in tensions between Belgium’s own – often security and defence. On issues that clearly low – level of ambition as a security actor concern its interests, on which it has expertise, and the expectations of its allies and and on which it is willing to make a significant partners. contribution, it can be in the vanguard, including on the international scene. But for more than a decade now, it has not been, mostly because it On many international threats and challenges was absorbed by domestic issues. The security Belgium evidently cannot, and should not, act environment has changed, however, and internal alone. In many cases it will act as a member of the vulnerabilities are now immediately exploited by EGMONT Royal Institute for International Relations #1 external powers. Therefore, even as the pandemic on resilience – or assertive and proactive, with the has created enormous domestic challenges, ambition to shape the international environment. Belgium cannot afford to be only inward-looking. (4) Objectives: Arguing back from that long-term In its 2020 coalition agreement, the federal vision, the Strategy next translates it into a set of government clearly intended to mark a new start; short and medium term, concrete objectives, hence the initiative to adopt a National Security both for the next 5 years, i.e. the current Strategy, for the first time ever. In this policy legislature, and for the next 10 years. It allocates brief, we outline Belgium’s interests, role, responsibility for each objective to a specific objectives, and capabilities against the backdrop actor, and sets deadlines. of the current security environment, pointing at what the National Security Strategy could, and (5) Capabilities: The Strategy outlines the types of ultimately should, encompass. instruments that the government plans to put to use, within and outside Belgian territory, in order WHAT IS A NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY? to pursue these objectives. On that basis, it then A National Security Strategy operates at the level gives an indication of the budgets, personnel, of “Grand Strategy”: it concerns the internal civilian and military capabilities, and other means cohesion of our society and the very survival of to be allocated to the relevant departments during our chosen way of life – which is based on the current legislature and of the long-term democracy, equality, human rights, and the rule budgetary growth path. of law. Such a strategy has five components: A National Security Strategy is not a catalogue or (1) Vital interests: The starting point is the definition wish-list: it does not need to say something about of the interests that have to be guaranteed to ensure every imaginable item of policy. A short and our societal cohesion and way of life. sharp National Security Strategy focuses on a few priorities: the big projects that this government (2) The security environment: Next comes an aspires to sustain, complete or set on the rails. assessment of the threats and challenges to the Within its framework, departmental strategies country’s vital interests. This analysis looks ahead can be elaborated, such as an updated Strategic to the longer term (10 to 20 years), taking into Vision on Defence and perhaps a Diplomatic account that “black swans” may occur: unexpected Strategic Vision. The details are for the annual events with major consequences. policy statements of individual Ministers. (3) Role: The Strategy then outlines the type of Such a National Security Strategy would basically long-term role that the state seeks to play as a offer a narrative, for the Belgian public and security actor on its territory and on the parliament, for its allies and partners, and for all international scene, in order to safeguard its vital potential adversaries: What are Belgium’s interests from these threats and challenges. For priorities, and what can they count on Belgium example, states can see themselves primarily as doing about them? faithful allies or independent players; as bridge- builders or antagonists; as value-based or transactional; as defensive and reactive – focused EGMONT Royal Institute for International Relations 2 #1 BELGIUM’S INTERESTS internal vulnerabilities by foreign actors for strategic The vital interests of Belgium are: purposes. Examples are subversion, coercion, and (1) The physical security of our citizens and aggression by other states (including in cyber space), territory; international terrorism, and armed conflict, but also (2) The democratic and sovereign nature of our transversal challenges such as climate change, political system; epidemics, economic crisis, and resource shortages. (3) Our economic prosperity and how that is National, regional, and global analyses of the security equitably shared between citizens; context are regularly updated: Belgium conducted a (4) A rules-based international order, so as to Security Environment Review in 2019, and the EU create a stable environment; just finished an assessment in November 2020, as the (5) The effective functioning of the EU, in which first step towards the drafting of a “Strategic we have pooled key elements of our sovereignty. Compass” for its Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). NATO systematically monitors the The first four are, in fact, the vital interests of the security environment too. Taken together, these EU as a whole as codified in the 2016 EU Global analyses enable Belgium to situate its national security Strategy. For Belgium, the consolidation and, needs and assess threats and challenges on both the where necessary, further deepening of EU national and the regional level. integration as such must be added as a vital interest. Undergirding any proactive approach to address security threats across the entire internal-external Vital interests are what we must be prepared to continuum, is resilience: the ability of the state and take risks for when they are threatened, for society to continue to function and remain relevant in otherwise our entire society and way of life will the face of sudden shocks as well as structural changes be at risk. If necessary, this is what we are ready in the environment. Building strong cyber defences, to fight for. for example, is a question of resilience, and protects against both a criminal gang hacking bank data and THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Russian or Chinese induced cyber activities. Actively Security is a continuum; internal and external threats putting an end to these threats will further require a are closely interlinked and at times overlapping. domestic policing strategy for the former; and a Russia or China strategy in the context of the National There are, however, threats that are primarily internal, Security Strategy for the latter. for which the domestic security services are the first responder. Examples are crime, domestic political The existence of a single National Security Council extremism and violence, and domestically inspired and its subordinate bodies, the Strategic Committee terrorism. When necessary, our domestic security and the Coordination Committee for Intelligence and services cooperate with their foreign counterparts, for Security, ought to ensure full transparency and example to address international crime. These internal coordination between these three overlapping threats are primarily addressed by the Framework dimensions: dealing proactively with internal and Note on Integral Security (which is in fact due for an external threats and challenges while ensuring update itself). resilience. The National Security Strategy concerns threats that The vital interests and the broad security threats are are primarily external, as well as the exploitation of more or less identical for all EU Member States. Yet, EGMONT Royal Institute for International Relations 3 #1 it is important to note Belgium’s specific interests and and autonomy and thus reinforces the ‘European vulnerabilities, which ought to determine its priority pillar’ within NATO”. Belgium should therefore objectives.
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