Challenges and Opportunities for Horticulture and Priorities for Horticultural Research at the start of the Twenty-First Century

I.J. Warrington Massey University Palmerston North New Zealand

Keywords: conservation, germplasm, health benefits, plant breeding, year-round production, traceability, sustainability

Abstract The production and marketing of horticultural crops is undergoing continuous change globally. This is due to the growing demands of consumers for safe and healthy foods, increased urbanisation of societies, the growth in scale and influence of supermarkets, the corporatisation of farming, changes in the availability of labour and the low priority given to food production by governments. Horticultural science can respond to many of these challenges through research and innovation that can seek to gain more efficient methods of crop production, refined post-harvest storage and handling methods, newer and higher value cultivars, demonstration of health benefits, and newer methods of knowledge dissemination.

INTRODUCTION Horticulture and the closely associated horticultural sciences are critical elements of modern society in most developed countries and in many developing countries around the world. The contributions of horticultural crops, and their related industries, to society at large are very considerable, generally taken for granted but often poorly understood or acknowledged. These contributions include: • The ongoing provision of safe, healthy and nutritious food, generally to a very high quality and in abundant quantities in many countries; • The provision of many essential vitamins and minerals, assisting consumers to achieve a balanced diet; • The contributions to economies through export-related activities and the sophistication associated with all elements of the supply chain. This is becoming increasingly important in developing countries who are contributing more frequently to food supply to developed countries, especially in Europe and North America; • The viability of rural communities directly through employment and the sustainability of service provision—so retaining populations that justify the delivery of services such as health and education; • Overall wealth generation through the activities of those involved with production, processing, marketing, servicing, and related sectors • The contributions to leisure, sport and recreational activities through specialised areas such as turf management, landscaping and the creation and management of private and public parks and gardens.

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CHALLENGES FOR HORTICULTURE Notwithstanding the critical role that horticulture plays in modern communities, horticulture globally is undergoing some very significant challenges that are impacting on both the production of horticultural crops and also on the priorities for research and development. Many of these challenges are quite recent and are of considerable magnitude. They include, but are not limited to, the following:

Current Economic Conditions Globally The overall downturn in the globally economy over the past decade has seen a decrease in the discretionary income of consumers in many countries. As a consequence the consumption of many high priced items—typically fresh fruit and vegetables—has been static or declining, including that in high-end restaurants. This has also impacted on the rate of growth in exports from some countries.

Increased “Protectionism” Consumers in many developed countries have become more interested in understanding the sources of the foods that they eat. In parallel, local farmers have recognised the opportunity to promote the consumption of locally produced horticultural produce in order to boost their sales. This has led to a proliferation of farmers markets in many areas, including those focussed on crops produced using organic farming methods, which have become increasingly popular amongst consumers. Nonetheless, the proportion of produce that these markets are selling is still comparatively small on a global scale and is usually (but not always) limited to provision of products during the current growing season—the exception is where local producers sometimes supplement their own products with imported ones. Within this same period, many governments have increased the levels of protectionism against imported produce or at least have slowed down the opening of their markets to increased exposure to imports.

Growth in Supermarkets and Corporate Farming The supply chain for horticultural produce has changed rapidly on a global scale over the past two or three decades. Supermarkets have rapidly displaced smaller marketers as the main outlets for the year-round supply of fruit, vegetables and cut- flowers. Furthermore, the number of major supermarket brands is currently fairly static and is predicted to reduce further, although expansion in Asia is very significant. Consequently the buying power is being consolidated into fewer retailers with significant consequences to both primary producers and to buyers (Table 1). The following characteristics are common for the produce buyers in most if not all supermarkets: • A need for year-round supply to allow consumers continuity of access to specific items of produce; • A wide range of interesting products to challenge the existing product range and to entice and retain consumers; • The best cultivars; • Highest possible quality with regard to flavour, appearance, and condition • Products that are convenient to eat; • Competitive pricing. In each of these characteristics lie opportunities for horticultural producers and for horticultural science to develop appropriate production methods, new cultivars and

2 products and to demonstrate the benefits from fruit and vegetable consumption and from the use of plants in various environments. The competition amongst supermarkets has, however, introduced complexities that go well beyond these more generic characteristics, as evidenced by the following extract of examples from Marks and Spencer’s strategic plan (Table 2). The examples from their “Plan A” that are included in the table are focussed primarily on the produce sector. They demonstrate the degree to which modern supermarkets are attempting to deliver to the perceived needs of consumers through responding to concerns as broad and complex as the management of rainforests, the rights of small-farmers in developing countries, and the rights to produce genetically modified crops. The objectives also indicate the extent to which such companies are integrating back into horticultural production systems through their direct involvement with production practices (sustainable production systems, pest and disease control, post-harvest management, and others). As equally significant, in many countries the value of land, the loss in profitability of family farms, and the loss in interest by family members to remain in farming, is seeing aggregations into much larger productive units that are often owned by corporate companies who manage such holdings in much the same way as any other investment. These changes are strongly affecting factors such as the proprietary ownership of new cultivars and the expectation that such cultivars will be restricted solely for exclusive use by one supermarket chain or by one corporate farmer. The changes in land ownership are also markedly changing the need for traditional, community-based horticultural extension services.

Changes in Demographics Populations in developed countries are shifting dramatically towards greater proportions of older people as a consequence of the “baby boom” of the 1940s and 1960s, and as a result of lower birth rates in recent decades. For example, in Asia and Europe (the two regions where severe population ageing will occur in the near future), within

Table 1. Top ten global retailers and country of origin, 2007. Sales 2002–2007 compound Retailer ($US million) growth rate (%)* Wal-Mart (USA) 405,607 10.3 Carrefour (France) 129,809 3.6 Metro (Germany) 99,986 4.6 Tesco (UK) 96,210 12.4 Schwarz (Germany) 79,924 12.6 Kroger (USA) 76,000 6.3 Home Depot (USA) 71,288 5.8 Costco (USA) 72,483 10.7 Aldi (Germany) 66,063 4.3 Target (USA) 64,948 7.6 * The 10 retailers with the highest compound growth rates in 2007 included two from China, two from Russia and one from South Korea. (Source: Emerging from the Downturn—Global Powers of Retailing 2010, Deloitte; seekingalpha.com/article/ 239815-wal-mart-heads-list-of-top-10-global-retailers)

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Table 2. Marks and Spencer: Some objectives relevant to fruit, vegetables and flowers from “Plan A: Doing the Right Thing.” (Source: plana.marksandspencer.com/ media/pdf/planA-2010.) Commit. no. Title Aim 17 Seasonal food Launching five R&D projects to extend the UK growing seasons and develop new cultivars that reduce the need for imports (eg., 100% locally produced asparagus, blueberries and potatoes when in season). 20 Reducing air Investigating and minimising our use of airfreight freight whilst balancing the need to trade with developing countries and provide nutritional choice. 23 Agricultural Undertaking research to understand the carbon balance carbon balance associated with the production of agricultural raw materials. 24 Labelling air Labelling all air freighted food products freighted food 48 Sustainable Engaging our producers of fresh meat, dairy, produce farming and flowers in the M&S Sustainable Agricultural Programme by 2012. By 2015 we will have also engaged farmers producing agricultural raw materials for M&S Food in the programme. 49 Organic food Tripling our sales of organic food in the UK and the Republic of Ireland by 2012. 50 Pesticides Work in partnership with Pesticide Action Network (phase-out) (PAN) UK to develop plans to phase-out additional hazardous chemicals in food production based on assessments of operator safety and environmental impact by 2012. 51 Pesticides Work towards M&S fruit, vegetables and salads being (residue free) 75% pesticide free by 2015 and 100% free by 2020. 52 Pesticides Launching a Pesticide Residue Reduction Network (network) with our suppliers. 53 Non GM Maintaining our non-GM food policy. 79 Regional food Doubling the amount of food we resource regionally sourcing and improve the information that we provide to customers by 2012. 89 Healthier food We aim to maintain our position of offering at least 30% healthier food lines by 2012. 90 Labelling Introducing the use of nutritional ‘traffic lights’ to relevant food products. 95 Natural Developing agricultural projects to provide naturally enrichment enriched foods by 2012. 96 Nutritional Developing nutritionally enriched product choices enrichment within selected ranges by 2012. 97 Healthy eating Introducing 1500 Healthy Eating Advisors in our stores advisors and extend this training to our food section employees by the start of 2010.

4 twenty years many countries will face a situation where the largest population cohort will be those over 65 and average age will be approaching 50. These shifts are impacting strongly on consumer consumption patterns as evidenced by smaller households, increased dining out, and increased demands for healthier foods.

Urbanisation Globally, an increasing proportion of the world’s population is living in urban environments where their interest in and knowledge of farming, and therefore of food production, is becoming increasingly deficient. In 1950 approximately 71% of the world’s population lived in rural locations while in 2010 this had declined to 50% (or as low as 10, 18, and 22% for the United Kingdom, the USA and France, respectively) and is projected to be as low as 30% globally by 2050 (United Nations, 2007). There is, in all developed countries, a growing expectation and dependence on the supply of a low-cost, year-round supply of premium quality fruit and vegetables. Paradoxically, these same urban-based consumers have become increasing vocal about issues such as carbon taxes, buy-local campaigns, the use of pesticides, labour conditions for farm workers, and the sustainability of production methods. These are often driven as “matters of conscience” and are in isolation from the reality of current production methods or of the opportunity to realistically meet these consumer demands. Urbanisation is also impacting significantly on the availability of labour for farming activities in general.

The Growth in the Scale of New Producers The overall unavailability of low-cost labour and the escalating cost of land has seen a decline in horticultural production in many developed countries around the world. Consequently, production has shifted to countries where land and labour allow cost- competitiveness. The growth in horticultural industries in some African countries, such as Kenya, has therefore become very significant (Table 3). A very notable example of a shift in the production of a specific crop is the expansion of apple production from China. The

Table 3. Main horticultural exports* from Kenya (from EPZA, 2005). Flowers Fruits and nuts Vegetables Roses Avocados French beans Carnations Mangos Snow peas Statice Passionfruit Runner beans Alstroemeria Pineapples Bobby beans Cut foliage Bananas Okra Carthimus Melons Asparagus Solidaster Strawberries Chillies Chrysanthemums Apples Aubergines Arabicum Macadamia Garden peas Ornitholigum Cashews Onions Asian vegetables Carrots Spices and herbs * Export destinations include The Netherlands, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Sweden, Dubai, South Africa.

5 volume of apple exports from China in 2004 was 750,000 tons, up from only 50,000 tonnes in 1992—so exceeding, within a decade, the volume of apples exported from the USA (see www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/April06/DataFeature).

Genetically Modified Crops GMOs are now widely used in a number of countries for the production of large- scale agronomic crops, especially maize, soybean and canola (oil seed rape). This is, however, not the case for horticultural crops where concerns and debates about the safety and the wider justification of genetic modification prevail in many countries. Of concern, is the lack of awareness about the role that conventional plant breeding plays in the production of new cultivars and the confusion that often prevails between conventional breeding and plants produced using gene transfer technologies. The changes outlined above are merely some of the factors that are impacting on current production practices for horticultural crops. They also provide a plethora of opportunities for horticultural science to solve many of the current problems facing producers and to offer solutions to those issues that are concerning consumers.

PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH ON HORTICULTURAL CROPS The ready supply of a wide range of affordable horticultural crops in most developed countries has led to a marked complacency about the need for ongoing R&D programs in horticulture. Consequently, many governments world-wide have scaled back funding for food production (at least in the applied areas of R&D) and most research- driven universities have now disbanded horticulture/horticultural science departments (and often agronomy departments) and merged them into plant science/plant biology departments with a very strong focus on the molecular sciences. Nonetheless, as indicated above, the basic need for research on horticultural crops has not decreased and challenges have increased rather than decreased in complexity given current consumer demands for affordability, safety and continuity of supply; increasing needs to achieve sustainable practices; and the need to deal with challenges arising from a more variable climate, the loss of productive soils through urban encroachment, and the loss of low-cost labour. There are, no doubt, many priorities that can be identified for horticultural research and these will be influenced by country, region and circumstance. The following are presented, however, as priorities that have global relevance and as of being of critical importance irrespective of these more specific local and particular factors.

Sustainable Production Practices The concepts of sustainability of horticultural crops relate both to the use of resources, such as water and nutrients, in a manner which considers future needs, and the responsible use of compounds such as pesticides which will not compromise the quality of the environment (or the safety of the produce that is produced). The most topical issue that is facing horticultural production in almost all areas of the world is the availability of water. Pressure on water resources for urban, industrial, recreational, conservation and other uses all appear to have higher priority within societies than the availability of water for horticultural crop (food) production. Current demands on water from both river and subterranean sources are outstripping availability resulting in attention being given to water harvesting options with on-farm dams, the use

6 of waste water and to the use of more efficient application methods (including the use of enclosed systems such as simple greenhouses). Research is urgently needed to resolve issues such as the development of drought tolerant crops, the management of crops under managed water deficits, dealing with increased salinity, and the use of low quality water. Integrated crop production systems have been shown to be effective on a number of crops for reducing the number of pesticide applications and for shifting to new control compounds that have less persistence in the environment and which are of lower overall toxicity. Producers have behaved responsibly and with some urgency to ensure the adoption of new practices. For example, within the USDA–AMS Pesticide Data Program (http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMS), when comparing pesticide residue data for peaches between 2002 and 2008, significant changes in crop protection approaches are evident. Some of the organophosphates, such as azinphos-methyl decreased from 46.5% to 25.6% of the samples tested, chlorpyriphos decreased from 35.5 to 17.2%, and phosmet from 64.8 to 30.7%. For other old chemistry pesticides such as carbaryl, the change was from 32.3 to 9.7% and iprodione from 54.7 to 31.2%. These uses were replaced by safer pesticides such as boscalid, methoxyfenozide and spinosad A over this same period. In most instances, the maximum level of pesticide detected was 5 to 10-fold below the legally permissible levels. In New Zealand, an integrated pest management program for apples was pilot tested with 6% of growers in 1996 and had achieved full adoption by the industry by 2000—this lead to a 95% reduction in organophosphate insecticides during that period and a 50% reduction in the use of all pesticides; residual herbicide use was also reduced (Wiltshire, 2003). Further development of such methods is needed on a range of crops world-wide.

Year-Round Supply The year-round provision of safe, nutritious fruit and vegetables and cut-flower crops to consumers has, over the past 50 years, primarily been through a combination of locally-produced and imported crops that have been handled through various transport and storage regimes—some crops such as apples have been stored for up to 10–12 months and shipped to both local consumers and to opposite hemispheres using such methods. The high costs of energy for transport and for storage, changes in consumer consumption preferences, and changes in consumer concerns (such as expressed through schemes such as computed carbon footprints), increasingly mean that these options may no longer be viable for some markets. One option for sustaining global supply is for organisations and industries to have counter-hemisphere and multiple supplier arrangements for products that have proprietary protection (e.g., as used for kiwifruit; Martin and Luxton, 2005). A further option, particularly in tropical and sub-tropical countries where many products currently have a gross over-supply during a very concentrated production season, is to extend the production season (and hence the period available for marketing that particular crop). The use of photoperiod extension for changing the flowering and therefore the production period for dragon fruit, or the use of special fertiliser regimes for shifting the flowering time for longans are two effective and proven approaches that can be used in this regard. Temperate crops can also be developed for extended production seasons as evidenced by the change in daylength dependency in strawberry.

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Health Promotion A major activity over the past 2–3 decades has been the promotion of health benefits that can be gained through the consumption of various fruit and vegetables. This has been most evident from the various “Five + a Day” and similar programmes. These activities have not just included fresh products but have also embraced products based on juice, dried products and extracts—many of which have extensive on-label claims. The reality is that many such claims have not in fact been clinically proven and regulators are increasingly requiring label claims to either be substantiated or removed. Clearly, there is a need for considerably more research in this area in order to fully specify the presumed health benefits in many fruit and vegetables (Table 4). This is an exciting area of endeavour where there is a convergence of horticultural science with medical and nutritional research. Notwithstanding the need to prove many of the specific health claims that are made for many fruit and vegetable crops, the consumption of fruit and vegetables per capita in markets such as the United States of America has increased over the past 2–3 decades. However, consumer preferences have changed markedly during that same period with a growing pattern of interest in convenience (as shown with the marked increase in banana and “other citrus” (or easy-peel) consumption), year-round availability (strawberries) and with novelty (as seen with kiwifruit, blueberries and cranberries). No doubt the perceived health benefits of some of these crops (such as the high vitamin C concentration in kiwifruit) has also helped to enhance consumption (Table 5). While the successes of programmes such as “Five + a Day” have been commendable, there is still a major shortfall in them achieving the daily consumption quanta that are targeted in the various promotional campaigns.

Improved Post-harvest and Supply Chain Methods A major trend over the past decade, possibly as a consequence of smaller households and more dedication to leisure activities, has been the shift towards the consumption of fresh rather than frozen produce. Modern consumers do not store food products for long periods within the household and are able to discern the difference in quality (taste and texture) between products that have been stored for short versus long periods. The challenge for horticultural science is, therefore, to refine methods for short- term storage so that premium quality is retained rather than to focus on longer-term storage for prolonged marketing. Interestingly, this potentially transforms the approaches that can be taken for chilling sensitive tropical and subtropical fruits (in particular) where

Table 4. Fruit and vegetables: report card of health benefits (IFAVA, 2006). Condition Strength of evidence Assessment of evidence Asthma Growing, but conflicting Watching studies Pulmonary function Diverse human data Plausible Bone health Growing Plausible Aging and cognition Limited human data Watching Neurodegenerative disease Limited human data Plausible Birth defects Human data Convincing for folate Arthritis Limited human data Plausible, watching Cataracts and eye health Few human studies Suggestive

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Table 5. Per capita consumption of fresh fruit (excluding melons) in the USA, 1980–2008. Per capita consumption (kg) Fruit crop 1980 1990 2000 2008 Apples 8.7 8.9 7.9 7.3 Pears 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 Oranges 6.7 6.1 5.7 4.9 Bananas 9.4 11.1 12.9 11.4 Strawberries 0.9 1.5 2.1 3.0 Pineapples 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.3 Other Citrus 1.2 0.9 2.0 2.4 Other Fresh Fruit* 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 Total fresh Fruit 40.3 42.2 46.4 46.0 * Includes blueberries, cranberries, kiwifruit, papayas, mangoes (Source: ERS/USDA 2010 database) long-term storage techniques have not been routinely available—the option to provide for new approaches that can be used for quality retention during short-term storage should be an absolute priority.

Germplasm Conservation and Product Enhancement There is a growing awareness world-wide about the need to conserve plant germplasm for the use of future generations. Consequently, considerable media attention has been given to the creation of the Svalbard global seed vault and the related storage of seeds of many economically-important crops (see http://www.croptrust.org/main). However, the lower “status” of most horticultural crops means that they are not treated with the same degree of priority and concern. Furthermore, the fact that most fruit crops of horticultural significance are vegetatively propagated and not seed propagated restricts the options for their conservation other than through relatively expensive live plant collections (which in most countries are under severe funding pressures). In the related area of germplasm enhancement and new cultivar development, there is now a major shortage of conventional plant breeders world-wide as programmes have become disproportionately focussed on molecular techniques. Formal training in plant breeding as well as the retention of conventional breeding in both tertiary education and government research institutes has also seen a major decline in the past two to three decades. There are many examples of the advances that have been made through conventional plant breeding that are benefitting modern consumers—cultivars of strawberries that allow longer production periods, a wider range of lettuce types, new pineapples with improved flavours, and new kiwifruit with different flavours and colours are a few such developments. As indicated above, consumers (and, therefore, supermarkets) are seeking new eating experiences, different quality attributes and improved convenience—and are prepared to pay a premium for such produce if their expectations are met. In some instances, these premiums are considerable and bring benefit to the overall industry through improving the popularity of the crop overall. Further, the premiums achieved can exceed those that consumers are prepared to pay for the choice of consuming organic produce (Table 6).

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Use of Technology and Knowledge Transfer Technology transfer from both university and government sources in many developed countries has markedly declined over the past two decades and been replaced with a greater provision of services from the private sector. Paradoxically, the demand for information from public providers has nonetheless increased as providers of information in the private sector seek to stay abreast of the latest developments and as producers seek to secure the best advice possible. In developing countries, where often the provision of knowledge from both private and public sectors may be poorly developed, the demand for useful and relevant information is growing as enterprises become more sophisticated and often more focussed on exporting their produce. In parallel with such changes, there has been an unprecedented expansion of methods by which to transfer information - mobile phones, the internet, laptop computers, private and public networking, and so on. Equally, there is a growing expansion of the types of information that can be accessed including that from remote sensing, environmental monitoring, image analysis and others. The challenges relate not to the availability of information—which can sometimes be well in excess of that needed—but to the provision of relevant knowledge and the more effective means of transmitting the specific information that is required. Horticulture producers have rapidly adopted many such technologies, such as through the use of near infrared scanning in modern fruit grading equipment which can now sort as many as 1.5 million fruit per hour (Hewett et al., 2005). Nonetheless, the use of robotics to replace labour in most crops has yet to be developed. The major challenge facing horticulture producers in the future will be to filter the information that is available into useful knowledge that will allow them to be more effective and efficient in their various enterprises.

CONCLUSIONS Modern horticultural production and post-harvest systems are highly specialised and very sophisticated. They require considerable input from a range of technologies, many of which are designed to operate at a large scale and which are not readily adaptable by small-scale holdings. The horticultural industry is also highly integrated along the supply chain with many private and public sector parties making critical contributions to different facets from the development of new cultivars and production methods, to establishing grade standards and market entry protocols, to the actual marketing of produce.

Table 6. New Zealand kiwifruit, grower returns and volumes sold. Type 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Gross orchard gate returns: relative to Green (= .00) Green 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Green organic 0.95 1.06 1.15 1.21 1.46 1.30 Gold 1.16 1.53 1.65 1.69 1.92 2.03 Kiwifruit sold: trays equivalent (million) Green 49.6 59.1 62.5 58.8 67.9 72.7 Green organic 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.9 Gold 8.6 14.7 14.1 16.7 19.3 21.9

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The continued globalisation of the industry will see a rapid transfer and adoption of knowledge. This will include the transfer from developed to developing countries as major enterprises move to year-round production and in response to securing lower-cost land and labour. Many of these activities will, however, be carried out by the private sector where the protection of intellectual property, the development of unique and proprietary cultivars and the advocacy of brands will, undoubtedly, see a markedly diminished involvement of the public sector. The main challenge to such trends will be the intervention of governments if and when incidences of food scarcity increase. Modern trends indicate that consumers are seeking increased variety, novelty, and healthy options in their eating choices. They are also seeking greater convenience and a higher proportion of fresh produce in their diets. Those in urban environments are increasingly aware of and dependent on green spaces for their livelihoods and well-being. The future for horticulture and its underpinning sciences within such an environment is, therefore, exciting, challenging, interesting and certainly rewarding.

Literature Cited EPZA. 2005. Horticulture industry in Kenya 2005. Export Processing Zones Authority, Nairobi, Kenya. www.epzakenya.com/UserFiles/File/Horticulture Hewett, E.W., Aitken, A.G., Kerr, J.P., Hale, C.N. and Nixon, C. 2005. Isn’t that amazing! The value of horticultural science and innovation to New Zealand. Acta Hort. 694:53–57. IFAVA. 2006. Fruit, vegetables and health: a scientific overview. International Fruit and Vegetable Alliance, Ottawa, Canada. www.5aday.co.nz/5adaywebsite/cms_resources /file/Scientific20% Overview Martin, R.A. and Luxton, P. 2005. The successful commercialisation of ZESPRITM Gold Kiwifruit. Acta Hort. 694:35–40. United Nations. 2007. World urbanisation prospects: the 2007 revision population database. United Nations Population Division, UN, New York. esa.un.org/unup/ Wiltshire, J.W. 2003. Integrated fruit production in the New Zealand pipfuit industry. Primary Industry Council/Kellog Rural Leadership programme, 2003. www.lincoln. ac.nz/PageFiles/1421/Jono-Wiltshire-IFP

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