Highways and Roads Draft Technical Backgrounder Appendices

DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER Northern Ontario Multimodal Transportation Strategy

Highways and Roads Appendices

Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Consulting Team: IBI Group | Hemson Consulting Ltd. November 2016 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

November 2016 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Appendix A: Roads Connecting First Nations: Detailed Maps and Tables

November 2016 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

A. Roads Connecting First Nations: Detailed Maps and Tables

This Appendix contains maps and tables providing detailed location information and road characteristics of Northern Ontario’s First Nation access roads. Exhibit A.1 through Exhibit A.5 are a series of maps showing the location of roads connecting First Nation communities, excluding seasonal winter/ice roads. The reference number on the map can be used to identify the road in Exhibit A.6, which is a table listing the roads with their jurisdiction, length and other physical characteristics.

November 2016 A.1 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines Exhibit A.1: Overview Map of Roads Connecting First Nations

November 2016 A.2 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.2: Map of Roads Connecting First Nations – Region 1

November 2016 A.3 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.3: Map of Roads Connecting First Nations – Region 2

November 2016 A.4 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.4: Map of Roads Connecting First Nations – Region 3

November 2016 A.5 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.5: Map of Roads Connecting First Nations – Region 4

November 2016 A.6 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments Northwest Region Kenora 1 Eagle Lake (Migisi Unorganized 502 Ojibway Dr 9.0 Community FNRP Sahgaigan) 2 Grassy Narrows Unorganized 671 - 671 runs to 0.65 Community - Distance to Hwy 671/Jones (Asubpeeschoseewa- reserve Rd; had 50/50 funding in the gong Netum boundary- past Anishinbek) 3 Iskatewizaagegan Unorganized 673 -673 runs to - Community - Hwy 673 is also called Shoal (Shoal Lake #39) reserve Lake Rd for 7.3 km from Hwy boundary 17 toward reserve boundary; remaining 750 m to boundary is First Shoal Road; had 50/50 funding in the past 4 Lac Seul Mun. of Sioux 664 Frenchman's various Community - Three communities are past Lookout Head Rd the end of Hwy 664; Road is on Crown Land despite being within Sioux Lookout boundaries; 3.2 km to first reserve boundary, 3.1 km through reserve, then 17 km to next reserve boundary 5 Naotkamegwanning Twp of Sioux 71 Gaudry Rd ? Community - 1.6 km to reserve boundary; (Whitefish Bay) Narrows- unclear where end point of Nestor Falls agreement is; had 50/50 funding in the past 6 Northwest Angle No.33 - no road access - - - Across strait from USA; access from Ontario is by boat or winter road only 7 Obashkaandagaang McKenzie 17 McKenzie 1.0 McKenzie Unincorp. Rds Gravel Funding is off reserve only (Washagamis) Portage LRB Portage Rd Portage LRB 8 Ochiichagwe’Babigo’ City of Kenora 658 Dalles Rd 4.3 1.6 km to reserve boundary Ining (Dalles)

November 2016 A.7 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments 9 Ojibways of Onigaming Twp of Sioux 71 Aazhawaashiik 1.0 50/50 Unincorp. Rds (Sabaskong) Narrows- Rd agreement for Nestor Falls 5.2 km 10 Shoal Lake No. 40 Unorganized; 673 “Freedom Road” 30 Unknown – Regular access is through Manitoba road is in Shoal Lake #39 by ferry or ice Manitoba road through Manitoba; no access during freeze-up or break-up period. 11 Wabaseemong Unorganized 525 Unnamed road 10 Community On-reserve road runs to the Independent main community 12 Wabauskang Unorganized 105 Wabauskang 3.4 50/50 Unincorp. Rds Road agreement for 5.6 km 13 Wabigoon Lake Ojibway Southworth 17 Unnamed road 1.0 50/50 Unincorp. Rds Through Southworth LRB LRB agreement for 4.3 km 14 Wauzhushk Ogigum City of Kenora 17 Golf Course Rd, 1.0 City of Kenora - (Anishnabe of Matheson Bay Wauzhushk) Rd, Old Bigstone Bay Rd Rainy River 15 Anishinaabeg of Twp of Lake of 621 Big Island 0.6 Community; First Nation Rd Off Vauthy Rd and Naongashiing (Big the Woods Reserve Rd small subsidy Beunavista Road Island) from MTO 16 Big Grassy Twp of Lake of 621 Beach Rd n/a 50/50 ? Hwy 621 runs through the the Woods agreement for reserve; numerous access 5.8 km points to community 17 Couchiching City of Fort 11 Couchiching Rd, n/a 50/50 ? Hwy 11 runs through the Frances Frog Creek Rd agreement for Reserve; numerous access 7.4 km roads

November 2016 A.8 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments 18 Lac La Croix Quetico Park; 17 Flanders Road 74.0 MNR (off - MNDM Gravel Community is at end of unorganized reserve portion); Resource resource access road maintained by Access Road MTO Program 19 Mitaanjigaming Unorganized; Wasaw Rd (aka 29.1 4.6 km - Unincorp. Rd Gravel Road on Crown Land & first section of Boffin Lake Rd MisCampbell Reserve Land and through road or LRB Road MisCampbell LRB; 50/50 maintained by Mitaanjigamiing 21.5 km - agreement for 29 km of road MisCampbell First Nation unorganized altogether? LRB Access Rd) (50/50 agreement with MTO) 3.0 km - Reserve 20 Naicatchewenin 613 Naicatchewenin 4.0 50/50 Unincorp. Rd (Northwest Bay) Rd agreement for 8.5 km 21 Nigigoonsiminikaaniing Unorganized 11 - unknown - 1.0 50/50 Unincorp. Rd Gravel (Red Gut) agreement for 3.5 km 22 Rainy River (Manitou Twp of 11 Caribou St, on reserve Community n/a Surface Two access roads Rapids) Chapple Manitou Rapids Treatment Dr 23 Seine River Unorganized 11 Horsecollar Jct 1.0 50/50 Unincorp. Rd Surface Rd agreement for Treatment 6.4 km Thunder Bay 24 Animbiigo Zaagi’igan Mun of 11 Partridge Lake 2.0 Gravel Anishinaabek (Lake Greenstone Rd Nipigon Reserve) 25 Aroland Unorganized 643 - - MTO Surface Hwy 643 runs through Treatment reserve

November 2016 A.9 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments 26 Biinjitiwaabik Zaaging Mun of 11 MacDiarmid Rd 1.0 50/50 Unincorp. Rd Gravel Anishinaabek (Rocky Greenstone agreement for Bay/MacDiarmid) 3.0 km 27 Bingwi Neyaashi Mun of 11 - unknown - 4.0 Gravel Anishinaabek (Sand Greenstone Point) 28 Fort William City of Chippewa n/a City of Thunder City of Thunder Asphalt The FN is served by several Thunder Bay Rd/City Bay Bay/FNRP City of Thunder Bay Roads Rd/Mountain Rd 29 Ginoogaming Mun of Blueberry St 1.0 Gravel Off Municipal Road in Greenstone Longlac 30 Kiashke Zaaging Unorganized 527 - unknown - 3.0 Gravel Anishinaabek (Gull Bay) 31 Lac des Mille Lacs Inwood LRB 17 Lac des Mille 18.0 50/50 Unincorp Rd. Gravel Off McKay Rd South through Lacs Rd agreement for Inwood LRB 18 km 32 Long Lake No.58 Mun of 11 Beaver Rd n/a Community with FNRP Paved Greenstone small subsidy from MTO 33 Ojibway Nation of Unorganized 599 - unknown - 2.0 Community none Hwy 599 borders community Saugeen 34 Pays Plat Unorganized 17 n/a - MTO – also Unincorp Rd. Hwy 17 runs through reserve; 50/50 road community is on River St program for 1.2km 35 Pic Mobert Unorganized 17 Mobert Rd 3.0 Community FNRP Gravel 36 Biigtgong Nishnaabeg Unorganized 627 627 runs to 0.8 Community FNRP Surface reserve Treatment boundary 37 Red Rock (Lake Helen Township of 11 - - MTO FNRP Hwy 11 runs through reserve No. 53A) Nipigon 38 Red Rock (Red Rock Unorganized 585 Unnamed road 1.0 FNRP Gravel No. 53)

November 2016 A.10 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments 39 Whitesand Armstrong 527 Memorial Ave n/a Armstrong LRB Gravel Road also runs to MNR dump LRB – also 50/50 and MTO Airport road program for 3.5 km - Northeast Region Cochrane 40 Constance Lake (182) - unorganized 11, 663 Rogers Road ? 50/50 Unincorp. Rd Surface Originally a forest access Constance Lake No. 92 Agreement for Treatment in road Concessions 7,8 poor and 9 condition Studholme Twp; MNR for section not on reserve 41 Flying Post (227) - unorganized 101 Mallett Road - Mallett Rd washed out km 21 Flying Post No. 73 turn-off; no residents are on this reserve 42 Taykwa Tagamou (145) Fraserdale 634 Otter Rapids 10.8 Community - Rough trail, Rough trail leading to hunting - New Post No. 69 Road 4x4 needed / camping grounds 43 Taykwa Tagamou (145) unorganized 574 New Post Road 0.0 Community - Paved and Community Starts at New - New Post No. 69A gravel Post Road 44 Wahgoshig (233) - unorganized 101 Wahgoshig First 3.8 50/50 Unincorp. Rd? Surface North off of Hwy 101 to Abitibi No. 70 Nation Road agreement Treatment, community; covers both good roads leading to the reserve condition and roads on the reserve 45 Moose Cree Moose Factory all roads outside 50/50 Unincorp. Rd? Gravel of Moose agreement for (limestone) Factory all roads outside of Moose Factory

November 2016 A.11 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments Algoma 46 Batchewana (198) - Goulais 17 Goulais Mission 2.7 community and Surface Road alternates between Goulais Bay No. 15A Mission LRB Rd various LRBs Treatment LRB and reserve land; also goes through Fenwick, Pennefeather and Vankoughnet LRB 47 Batchewana (198) - Herick 563 Corbeil Point Rd 3.9? 50/50 Unincorp. Rd? Gravel Obadjiwan No. 15E (2.5 km) agreement 48 Batchewana (198) - City of Sault 17 Frontenac 2.0 Sault Ste. Marie Asphalt Runs Parallel to Hwy 17 Rankin Location No. Ste. Marie Street 15D 49 Batchewana (198) - City of Sault 17 WhiteFish Island - - No roads or village Whitefish Island Ste. Marie 50 Garden River No. 14 City of Sault 17 Hwy 17B 10.4 ? First Nation Asphalt Hwy 17B runs through (Ojibway of Garden Ste. Marie Rd.? reserve River (199)) 51 Missanabie Cree (223) no current reserve land, agreement made in 2011 that they would receive 39 km2 from Ontario 52 Michipicoten (225) - Lendrum 17 Tremblay Flats 2.9 Gravel/ Off of Hwy 17 10+800m Groas Cap No. 49 Road Surface Treatment 53 Michipicoten (225) - Lendrum 17 Tremblay Flats 0.4 Gravel Off of Hwy 17 9+900m Gros Cap Indian Village Road No. 49A 54 Michipicoten (225) - 651 Unnamed road 2.5 Surface Missanabie No. 62 Treatment 55 Mississauga (200) - Blind River 17 - - MTO Asphalt Hwy 17 runs through reserve Mississagi No. 8 for 4.5 km 56 Serpent River (201) - 17 - - MTO Asphalt Hwy 17 runs through reserve Serpent River No. 7 for 7.8 km

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Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments 57 Thessalon - Thesssalon Thessalon 17 Maple Ridge Rd 4.8 Surface No. 12 Treatment Sudbury 58 Atikameksheng 55 Reserve Road 0.3 Surface Hwy 55 is also called Old Anishnawbek (previous: Treatment Hwy 17 Whitefish Lake (224) - Whitefish Lake No. 4) 59 Brunswick House (228) Gallagher 101 - - MTO Asphalt Hwy 101 runs through - Duck Lake No.76B Reserve for 1.9 km 60 Brunswick House (228) - unknown - Access unknown - reserve is - Mountbatten No. 76A used by Duck Lake 76B (#12) for hunting but unoccupied. 61 Chapleau Cree (221) - - unknown - Could not locate roads Chapleau No. 75 62 Chapleau Cree (221) Town of 129 Fox Lake Rd 4.7 50/50 Unincorp. Rds Surface Chapleau Cree Fox Chapleau agreement Treatment Lake 63 Chapleau Ojibway (229) Town of 129 - unknown - Chapleau No. 61, Chapleau 61A,74 64 Henvey Inlet (231) - 69 Pickerel River 0.7 Asphalt Guiderail bridge at 0.4 km; French River No. 13 Rd end at sign; access also through Hwy 69 65 Henvey Inlet (231) - 69 Forest access 22.5 Gravel Fork in rd. @ 2.3 km; 5-m Henvey Inlet No. 2 road Bridge @ 5.4k m &16 km Rock Quarry @ 15.3 km Railroad X-ing @15.9 km & 22.5 km 66 Mattagami (226) - unorganized 144 Mattagami First 4.5 50/50 ? Surface Mattagami No. 71 Nation Rd agreement; not Treatment, used in several Moderate years condition

November 2016 A.13 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments 67 Michipicoten (225) - Town of 129 - - MTO Asphalt Hwy 129 runs through Chapleau No. 74A Chapleau reserve for 2.0 km 68 Sagamok Anishnawbek Town of 17 River Road 3.5 ? Surface Access through town of (179) - Sagamok Indian Massey Treatment Massey (Imperial St and Reserve Government Rd), over Serpent River bridge 69 Wahnapitae (232) - 84 Taighwenini 2.1 Asphalt End at sign; via Portelance Wahnapitae No. 11 Trail Rd Rd. 70 Whitefish River (230) - 6 - - MTO Asphalt Hwy 6 runs through reserve Whitefish Island No. 4 for 12 km 71 Wikwemikong (175) - 637 - - MTO Hwy 637runs through reserve Point Grondine No. 3 Manitoulin 72 M'Chigeeng (181) - 551,540 - - MTO N/A Hwys 551 and 540 run M'Chigeeng No. 22 through reserve 73 Aundek Omni Kaning 540 - - MTO Asphalt Hwy 540 runs through (Ojibways of Sucker reserve for 2.7 km Creek (180) - Sucker Creek No. 23) 74 Sheguiandah (176) - 6 - - MTO Asphalt Hwy 6 runs through reserve Sheguiandah No. 24 for 1.3 km 75 Sheshegwaning (178) - 540 Sheshegwaning 1.5 Surface Sheshegwaning lies between Sheshegwaning No. 20 Road Treatment Zhiibaahaasing and Hwy 540 and shares access with it 76 Wikwemikong (175) - 6 Meredith Street 0.3 Asphalt Plus another 12.5 km to Wikwemikong Unceded reserve community No. 26 77 Zhiibaahaasing (173) - 540 Sheshegwaning - Surface Shares access with Zhiibaahaasing No. 19A Road Treatment SheShegwaning (see above); access includes 5 km through SheShewgwaning

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Exhibit A.6: Characteristics of Roads Connecting First Nations (continued) Connect- Connecting Nearest ing Rd Road Bordering Prov. Connecting Length Maintenance Funding Surface First Nation Jurisdiction Hwy Road Name(s) (km) Responsibility Program Type Comments Timiskaming 78 Matachewan (219) - unorganized 65 Matachewan 12.9 50/50 ? Gravel includes on-reserve portion Matachewan No. 72 First Nation Rd agreement Surface, good condition 79 Algonquins of - 2.8 Pikwakanagan (163) - No Current Land Reserve 80 Nipissing (220) - - 17 Dutrisac Rd, 5.8 Paved Nipissing No. 10 Garden Village Rd, Cockburn Rd 81 Temagami (222) - Bear 11 Lake Temagami 17.1 Surface 5-m bridge at 4.9 km; Island No.1 Access Rd Treatment guiderail at 15.2 km; end at parking lot turn-around; additional boat or winter road access (approx. 6 km) from land to Bear Island; Parry Sound 82 Dokis (218) - Dokis No. 64 Unnamed road 9 83 Magnetawan (174) - 69, 529 - - MTO Hwys 69 and 529 run through Magnetawan No.1 reserve 84 Naiscoutaing No. 17A 529 - - MTO (Shawanaga (137) - Naiscoutaing No. 17A) 85 Shawanaga (137) - 69 Shebeshekong 0.0 Asphalt Shawanaga No. 17 Rd 86 Shawanaga (137) - 69 Shebeshekong 2.8 Gravel Reserve begins 1.6 km west Shawanaga No. 17A Rd North and of Skerryvore Rd intersection Shebeshekong at "No Trespassing" sign Landing Rd

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Appendix B: Technological Advancements in Trucking

November 2016 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

B. Technological Advancements in Trucking

Technological advancements in the trucking industry, including specific technologies and their planning implications, are described below.

Idle Reduction

Sample technologies: auxiliary power units, component electrification, automatic engine start/stop Planning impact: low — no regulatory or infrastructure changes generally needed

One major cause of wasted fuel is idling. Traditionally truck engines would need to be running to power equipment in the cab. Advances such as electrification of components, battery systems, and auxiliary power units allow drivers to use cab equipment without the main engine running, thereby saving fuel. Automatic engine start/stop systems further ensure the engine is running only when needed.

Reduced Vehicle Weights

Sample technologies: aluminum wheels, carbon fibre trailers Planning impact: moderate — no infrastructure changes generally needed, regulatory changes may be needed to permit alternate vehicle construction

One way to reduce fuel consumption is to make commercial vehicles lighter. Material changes such as aluminum and carbon fibre are strong yet lightweight materials than can take the place of materials currently used to construct vehicles. Walmart’s WAVE truck demonstrates the feasibility of a carbon fibre trailer to reduce overall weight and improve fuel efficiency. Alternate weight reduction strategies include 6x2 systems and wide-base tires (further discussed below under rolling resistance) due to a reduction in weight through simplifying the parts.

November 2016 B.1 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Larger Vehicle Dimensions

Sample technologies: larger vehicles, long combination vehicles Planning impact: high — vehicle weights and dimensions are regulated and any changes to make trucks larger would require changes to this regulation. Longer vehicles would require changes to rest stops as many stops on the highway system may not be able to accommodate longer vehicles. Northern Ontario issues: the Northern highway network is predominantly two- lanes, and longer vehicles are difficult to pass.

Trucking efficiency can be increased by increasing the vehicle cargo capacity. Walmart developed a “supercube” truck to increase cargo capacity within the current allowable dimensions envelope. Canadian Tire has announced the piloting of 60-foot intermodal containers. Increasing cargo capacity within existing dimension envelopes will allow more cargo to be transported with a minimal increase in fuel and emissions, with the added benefit of improved driver productivity. Long combination vehicles (LCV) are combination tractor-trailer vehicles that exceed 25 m, e.g. a tractor pulling two full-length semi-trailers, for a total length up to 40 m. LCVs allow more cargo to be transported with less fuel compared to using two typical trucks. These are not a new technology; however their introduction onto the Ontario highway system is recent. Ontario recently increased the maximum length for B-train double trailer configurations to 27.5 m, with longer combinations of A- and B-train double trailer configurations up to 40 m permitted under the Ministry’s LCV program. LCVs do pose difficulties for passing, which is why they are currently permitted only for approved routes. Passing considerations will be necessary for evaluation to potential application of LCVs in Northern Ontario, where much of the highway network is two-lane roads. Other jurisdictions such as Alberta do allow for LCV use on two-lane roads in some conditions and where the maximum vehicle length is 31 m. An additional concern in the Northern Ontario context is rest areas. Many rest stops may not be currently able to accommodate commercial vehicles of current standard lengths, let alone longer commercial vehicles, and additional infrastructure may be required to provide emergency stop locations.

November 2016 B.2 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Rolling Resistance

Sample technologies: low rolling resistance tires, wide-base tires, tire pressure systems, 6x2 drive systems1 Planning impact: moderate—some regulatory changes may be required to adapt to advances in drive systems, such as 6x2 systems Northern Ontario issues: lower resistances may not be suitable for road conditions on winter roads and forest access roads where additional traction is needed.

Friction between the ground and truck tires is an area where efficiencies can be made to reduce fuel use. Tire advances such as low rolling resistance (LRR) and single wide-base tires replacing conventional double-tire axles cause less friction with the ground, reducing the power required to maintain a truck at a given speed. Alternate drive systems, such as the 6x2 system, reduce the rolling resistance of the tractor and the tare weight of the truck by eliminating one drive axle. Traditionally, 3-axle tractors operate with a 6x4 system, where the front axle is steerable and the rear tandem axles are drive axles providing the tractor with traction to propel the vehicle. This system also results in a lower weight as the drivetrain is simplified. The tandem axles are required in Ontario to be load equalized to within 1,000 kg. The disadvantage of 6x2 systems is their reduced traction, and they are likely unsuitable for ice roads, gravel pits, and forestry roads. Tire pressure monitoring and inflation equipment allows drivers to be aware of the tire pressure, as well as inflate low-pressure tires. Under-inflated tires have a higher surface area in contact with the road, thereby increasing friction and fuel consumption. Nitrogen gas is an alternate for tire inflation which offers the advantage of reduced leakage thereby maintaining the tire pressure for a longer period.

1 The designation 6x2 refers to 6 wheel positions, 2 of which are powered. Much more typical North America is a 6x4 system, where 4 of the wheel positions are powered. The 6x2 system refers to a tractor configuration with a typical single axle at the front followed by a double (or “tandem”) axle , where the front axle is the steering axle, but instead of a powered pair of rear tandem axles, only one of the rear axles is powered, with the other axle often referred to as a “dead” axle.

November 2016 B.3 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

Aerodynamic Resistance

Sample technologies: aerodynamic bumpers, fairings, wheel covers, mirrors, boat tails Planning impact: moderate — some regulatory changes may be required to allow aerodynamic fairings and add-ons. Boat tails were first permitted in 2014, and the regulation was updated in February 2016. Regulatory changes would be necessary for full replacement of side mirrors by cameras. Aerodynamic resistance is an area where streamlining the tractor-trailer combination can yield fuel savings. Devices such as aerodynamic bumpers, tractor and trailer fairings, and wheel covers are all aimed at improving the overall airflow around the vehicle. Wheel covers need to be designed to allow for easy maintenance and inspection of tires. Side mirrors pose another obstacle to the aerodynamic efficiency of commercial vehicles. Mirror design continues to improve overall aerodynamics; however, a proposed technological solution to replace mirrors with cameras. Truck-mounted cameras offer greater visibility, but also are prone to equipment failures. Regulatory changes will be required to permit the replacement of side mirrors with camera technology. Rear aerodynamic devices, such as boat tails, improve the aerodynamic performance of the vehicle by reducing the wake field caused by the abrupt flat back of trailers. Transport Canada determined that boat tails could provide a reduction in fuel consumption of between 4.7% and 7.3% for a typical tractor- trailer. Rear trailer devices, such as tails were first permitted for use in Ontario in 2014; as of February 5, 2016 the allowance for aerodynamic devices at the rear of commercial motor vehicles is 1.52 m.

Powertrain

Sample technologies: selective catalytic reduction, fuel additives, alternate fuels/electric propulsion Planning impact: high — alternate fuels would require new fueling infrastructure Northern Ontario issues: additional fueling infrastructure may be harder to justify in the relatively sparse north.

Emissions reductions have often focused on the engine and powertrain of commercial vehicles. Advances such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR) are becoming commonplace. SCR controls emissions by injecting diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) into the exhaust, triggering a chemical reaction that reduces nitrogen

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oxides. Fuel additives are being developed with the goal of improving fuel efficiency; however, fuel additives to date have not proven effective in reducing fuel consumption. Alternate fuels such as natural gas are potential replacements for the diesel engines that power commercial vehicles. Alternate fuel systems are under development; however, the current infrastructure that supports diesel combustion would need to be modified to support alternate fueling. Electric vehicles are another potential replacement for diesel engines. Electric vehicles require substantial battery packs, which tend to have decreased performance in winter conditions. Electric vehicles also will require more power in winter operations for cab heating and windshield defrosting. Additional infrastructure in charging stations would be required to support electric vehicles.

Operational Improvements

Sample technologies: predictive cruise control, optimized routing, platooning, fully autonomous vehicles Planning impact: high — autonomous vehicles will require new regulations to govern their operation. Platooning will need to be regulated to ensure safe passing opportunities for other road users. Some degrees of automation, such as predictive cruise control, may be feasible under current laws however there is also a data requirement which could potentially be facilitated by the Ministry. Infrastructure may be necessary to enable some vehicle-based communication systems. Northern Ontario issues: the Northern highway network is predominantly two lanes wide, and platooning vehicles are difficult to pass. Additional data required for advanced driving systems (predictive cruise control, autonomous vehicles) may not be justifiable for low volume roads.

Predictive cruise control is the use of on-board truck data to allow the truck to determine the optimal speed to maximize fuel economy. Such systems can be combined with mapping and elevation data to further optimize based on the future highway conditions. Routing optimization can also take advantage of additional data such as elevations to select routes that reduce fuel consumption. The data required to support advanced predictive cruise control and routing will potentially be collected for high-volume routes, such as Highway 11/17, however it is unlikely that such systems will be needed or be relevant to lower volume routes, especially those with no alternative. Platooning is the operation of multiple commercial vehicles with little gap distance in order to reduce aerodynamic drag and increase overall fuel efficiency. Platooning will require some degree of vehicle-to-vehicle

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communication, and potentially some infrastructure to allow truck drivers to connect to be matched for a potential platoon. Platooning presents passing challenges, similar to those encountered with LCVs, and platoon limits will be necessary for operation on two-lane roads in Northern Ontario. Fully autonomous vehicles are a technology that is being pursued to offer a wide range of benefits:  Elimination of driver costs;  Reduced tractor size due to cab compartment elimination;  Increased safety; and  All-hours driving. Autonomous vehicles would likely include a number of advancements described above, including electric propulsion, increased cargo capacity, and platooning. Autonomous trucking will require detailed mapping, and thus can be expected first on main highways. Due to the low volume of trips/limited market, as well as the rugged and dynamic nature of road conditions, autonomous trucks will likely not be seen on winter roads until sometime after they are commonplace on the main highways.

Summary Various advances in trucking technology are being developed, primarily with the goal of increasing fuel efficiencies. Many of these advances can be adapted to the current trucking fleet, or fit within the existing regulatory framework. Idling reduction, weight reduction, lower-resistance tires, and some aerodynamic devices are technologies that require no regulatory change. Other advances, such as aerodynamic add-ons that extend beyond the currently permissible truck envelope, as well as overall length, are addressed under Ontario Regulation 413/05 (Vehicle Weights and Dimensions – For Safe, Productive, and Infrastructure-Friendly (SPIF) Vehicles). Some technological advances and operational changes, such as long combination vehicles (LCVs) and platooning will be more difficult to implement in the North due to the vast majority of the highway network being 2-lane highways, unless accommodated by additional passing lanes or 4-laning of trucking routes to facilitate passing. Generally, the trucking industry is self-motivated to adopt new technologies as they reduce their cost of transport. In the long term, autonomous trucks aim to eliminate the largest cost associated with trucking: the driver. Many technological advances can be implemented directly on current vehicles, with no regulatory changes and few planning implications, aside from reduced emissions.

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Appendix C: Highway Demand Forecasting Methodology

November 2016 IBI GROUP DRAFT TECHNICAL BACKGROUNDER: HIGHWAYS AND ROADS Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Northern Development and Mines

C. Highway Demand Forecasting Methodology

Overview of Forecasting Approach The Northern Ontario highway network covers an extensive area that in general is sparsely populated, but there are also urban centres and communities of varying sizes, typically situated along major highway corridors. Commercial trucks represent a very significant proportion of truck traffic in many corridors. Often very long distances are travelled between locations. As the only road connection between Western Canada and Eastern Canada and with four international road border crossings, the network serves significant interprovincial and international traffic as well. The highway traffic forecasting model developed for NOMTS represents the trips within, to, from and through Northern Ontario. Given to the long distances and travel times between destinations, the model reflects average daily traffic (as opposed to peak-hour traffic). Detailed forecasting for urban areas in Northern Ontario would be best conducted using a more localized model. The base year of the model is 2011, compatible with the 2012 CVS and 2011- 2012 passenger vehicle survey (PVS) data, and with the most recent Census data. Highway traffic forecasts were developed for 2031 and 2041. The road network used for traffic assignments and analysis is based on MTO’s commercial vehicle survey (CVS) network, which is populated with typical daily travel speeds suitable for assigning long-distance travel. The network was refined as part of a separate MTO study of passenger vehicle border crossing travel to ensure that the network also represents cross-border passenger vehicle travel well. In addition, IBI Group tagged the network with MTO’s Linear Highway Referencing System (LHRS) values so that a variety of information from MTO’s Provincial Highways Traffic Volumes database can be associated accurately with the network links. Note that the aim of the forecasting exercise is to establish current and future traffic flows on the highway network, and not to develop a comprehensive travel matrix. The forecasting process includes identifying a market of local traffic not captured in the origin-destination surveys, both of trucks and of passenger vehicle flows, in terms of proportion of network link volumes.

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For developing both passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle forecasts, the general process is the same:  Translate base-year flows to an average annual daily traffic (AADT) basis and determine flows on the network by trip market. Origin- destination (O-D) survey data do not need a traffic zone system for assigning flows, as assignment will be based on an MTO algorithm to assign trip origins and destinations to the nearest nodes on the network. The portion of AADT on each network link not represented by the assigned O-D data is considered to be a separate local traffic market.  Factor flows by market in accordance with growth in assumed causal factors at the origin and/or destination zone of the trip, with zones based on Census Divisions. For example, truck trips carrying a specific commodity from one Census Division to another are factored based on growth the main industries related to that commodity in those Census Division.  To forecast local traffic flows not represented by survey data, the local traffic portion of traffic on each network link is factored according to growth in local industry for truck flows, and to growth in local population for passenger vehicle flows. (This local traffic is not translated into a comprehensive travel matrix.)

Available Data MTO has two rich sets of origin-destination travel data that provide a good foundation of travel behaviour for the forecasting work:  The 2012 Commercial Vehicle Survey (CVS): The CVS is an ongoing data collection program by MTO to maintain a database of commercial vehicle travel movements throughout the province. The data are based on interview surveys with truck drivers passing survey stations set up at strategic highway locations throughout the province. The survey includes a large majority of inter-regional travel, but shorter-distance truck trips that do not pass any of the survey sites are not represented in the survey results. The CVS surveys conducted in Northern Ontario as part of NOMTS Part 1 study represent an early phase of the province-wide CVS data collection. Additional data collection was conducted from 2012 to 2014 toward completing the 2012 CVS, primarily in Southern Ontario though some additional survey sample was also collected in some areas in Northeastern Ontario. After the remaining data collection for the 2012 data collection was completed, additional review and

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refinement of the entire data set was conducted, and the entire dataset, including the Northern Ontario data, was re-expanded (i.e. had expansion weights assigned to each survey record so that analysis of the dataset would reflect weekly truck traffic in Ontario). The NOMTS highway forecasting effort is based on the province- wide dataset using records for trips travelling on the Northern Ontario highway network, rather than on the initial NOMTS Part 1 CVS dataset.  Part 1 NOMTS Passenger Vehicle Survey (PVS): NOMTS Part 1 involved conducting origin-destination surveys of passenger-vehicle traffic to obtain an up-do date picture of passenger-vehicle travel at border crossings and at strategic highway locations – especially at Northern Ontario gateway locations. In early 2016, MTO SAFO commissioned a study to consolidate a variety of passenger vehicle surveys conducted at Ontario international border crossings since 2000. As part of this process, some additional processing of the NOMTS Part 1 border surveys was conducted. The forecasting work uses this updated border database. Exhibit C.1 and Exhibit C.2 are maps that show, for the commercial vehicle component and passenger vehicle component of traffic, respectively, the portion of traffic that is represented by assigning the above origin-destination survey data to the network (these flows are shown in yellow), and the remainder of traffic levels on each highway segment not represented and considered for forecasting purposes to be “local” traffic (these flow are shown in blue). The data collection sites for each survey are also shown; there are many more commercial vehicle survey sites than passenger vehicle surveys sites. It can be seen that commercial vehicle traffic is much more comprehensively represented by origin destination survey data than the passenger-vehicle component. In addition, MTO has a Provincial socio-economic forecasting model consistent with the NOMTS Reference Scenario. The model includes employment and GDP by industry sector, as well as population, at the Census Subdivision level. These forecasts form the basis for developing growth factors for commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle trips.

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Exhibit C.1: Northern Ontario Base-Year Commercial Vehicle Traffic Levels by Survey Data Availability

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Exhibit C.2: Northern Ontario Base-Year Passenger Vehicle Traffic Levels by Survey Data Availability

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Truck Forecasting Approach

Establishing Base-Year Demand The 2012 CVS is expanded to weekly truck traffic flows; expansions weights are divided by 7 to translate to average annual daily truck traffic (AADTT) flows. A comparison of the assigned base-year CVS flows to average annual daily truck traffic (AADTT) on each network link indicates how well the CVS represents truck traffic on that link. The portion of AADTT that is greater than the assigned CVS flows represents local truck traffic making relatively short- distance trips whose routes do not pass any CVS stations and therefore are not reflected in the CVS dataset. These local flows are identified and forecasted as a separate trip market. A higher portion of local truck traffic can be expected in locations that did not have a CVS station in the vicinity, such as close to urban areas. However, in certain cases, such as in the Kenora/Dryden area, the AADTT was found to be greater than CVS flows even in the vicinity of CVS stations, where the CVS should fully represent the truck flows. Because the traffic counts were used for CVS expansion had been carefully validated to exclude recreational vehicles, which can be mistaken for commercial trucks by traffic recording equipment, the CVS flows were taken to be more accurate than AADTT counts in this case, and the effective AADTT was reduced accordingly in these cases. No seasonal adjustments to truck traffic will be made, as truck traffic has far less seasonal variation overall compared to passenger vehicle traffic.

Forecasting Future-Year Demand Truck trips in the CVS dataset are categorized into 20 groups for NOMTS forecasting purposes. Exhibit C.3 summarizes the commodity types included in each group according to the CVS commodity classification, which is based on the Standard Classification of Transported Goods (SCTG) system. The exhibit also outlines industry types used in the development of future growth rates for each type of trip, described further below. Growth factors will be applied to estimate 2031 and 2041 truck trips The forecasting methodology involves factoring truck rates corresponding to growth in the corresponding industry for that commodity. However, this is greatly complicated by the fact that there is no one-to-one correspondence between industries and commodities, as many industries can be involved in the production and movement of any given commodity, and a given industry can move a variety of commodities — especially transportation and warehousing industries. Based on analysis of the Ontario CVS data, the most significant industries involved in the movement of goods in Northern Ontario are

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transportation and warehousing companies, as 61% of truck trips involve a transportation terminal (truck, marine, air or rail) or warehouse for at least one end of the truck trip (22% of trips are to a transportation terminal/warehouse, 22% of trips are from a transportation terminal/warehouse, and 17% are between transportation terminals/warehouses). This proportion varies greatly by type of commodity carried, for example, 86% of movements of Food Products involve a transportation terminal/warehouse at one or both ends, while only 9% of raw forest products involve a transportation terminal or warehouse at a trip end. The methodology for factoring truck trips to develop future forecasts therefore has to consider both the commodity being moved and the type of facility at either end of the truck trip to ensure that the appropriate industry growth rates are used as a basis for growth in trips. The methodology is as follows:  Neither end of the trip is a transportation terminal/warehouse: Trips are factored according to growth in the industry types, shown in Exhibit C.3, for both the origin and destination zones. The inclusion of industries in this table is based on Ontario CVS analysis of the types of facilities at either end of truck trips by type of commodity. In some cases, one industry is more significant than another in generating truck trips, so only part of an industry total is used. The growth rate used to factor each trip record is the average between the growth rate for the origin and destination of the trip.  One end of the trip is a transportation terminal/warehouse: Trips are factored according to growth in the industry type in the opposite end of the trip, as shown in Exhibit C.3.  Both ends of the trip are transportation terminals/warehouses: The overall growth rate used is based on the growth rates for the transportation warehousing/terminals at both ends of the trip. The growth rate used is the average between the growth rate for the origin and destination of the trip.

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Exhibit C.3: Truck Forecasting Groups, Commodity Detail, and Basis for Future Growth Basis for Future Growth: CVS Commodity Classes Percentage GDP change for CD (Ontario) or Province (outside of Ontario) Forecasting Categories include 2-Digit SCTG level of detail, Group except as indicated by italics Trip Origin Trip Destination 1. Agricultural 1000 LIVE ANIMALS AND FISH 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing 41 Wholesale Trade 2000 CEREAL GRAINS and hunting 44 Retail Trade 3000 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS (EXCLUDES LIVE (0.5 x) 31-1 Food ANIMALS, CEREAL GRAINS, AND FORAGE (0.5 x) 31-1 Food Manufacturing Manufacturing PRODUCTS) (0.5 x) 11 Agriculture, 4000 ANIMAL FEED AND FEED INGREDIENTS, forestry, fishing and CEREAL STRAW, AND EGGS, HONEY AND hunting OTHER PRODUCTS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN N.E.C. 2. Food Products 5000 MEAT, FISH, SEAFOOD, AND PREPARATIONS 31-1 Food Manufacturing 41 Wholesale Trade 6000 MILLED GRAIN PRODUCTS AND 44 Retail Trade PREPARATIONS, AND BAKERY PRODUCTS 7000 PREPARED FOODSTUFFS N.E.C. AND FATS AND OILS 8000 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND DENATURED ALCOHOL 43101 Items (including food) for grocery and convenience stores 43102 Supplies and food for restaurants and fast food chains 3. Raw Forest 25000 LOGS AND OTHER WOOD IN THE ROUGH 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing 32-1 Wood Products 26100 Wood chips or particles and hunting 32-2 Paper 27100 Pulp of fibrous cellulosic materials 4. Paper Products 27200 NEWSPRINT IN LARGE ROLLS OR SHEETS 32-2 Paper (0.5 x) 32-2 Paper 27300 Uncoated paper and paperboard in large rolls or 32-3 Printing sheets 27400 Coated, impregnated, treated, or worked paper and paperboard, in large rolls or in sheets 28000 PAPER OR PAPERBOARD ARTICLES

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Forecasting CVS Commodity Classes Basis for Future Growth: Group Categories include 2-Digit SCTG level of detail, Percentage GDP change for CD (Ontario) except as indicated by italics or Province (outside of Ontario) Trip Origin Trip Destination 5. Lumber & 26000 WOOD PRODUCTS excluding 26100 Wood Chips 32-1 Wood 44 Retail Trade Finished Forest (under 2. Raw Forest Products) 33-7 Furniture Products (0.5 x) 33-8 Miscellaneous (0.5 x) 23 Construction 6. Non-Metallic 10000 MONUMENTAL OR BUILDING STONE EXCEPT 21-2 Non-Metallic Mineral 23 Construction Minerals DOLOMITE Mining and Quarrying 32-7 Non-metallic minerals 11000 NATURAL SANDS EXCEPT METAL-BEARING (0.5 x) 32-7 Non-metallic 12000 GRAVEL AND CRUSHED STONE EXCEPT minerals DOLOMITE AND SLATE 13000 NON-METALLIC MINERALS N.E.C. (e.g. Salt, Clays) 7. Non-Metallic 31000 NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS (E.G. 32-7 Non-metallic minerals 23 Construction Mineral CEMENT, GLASS, ASPHALT SHINGLES, 33-8 Miscellaneous Products BRICKS) 8. Metallic 14000 METALLIC ORES AND CONCENTRATES 21-1 Metallic Mineral Mining 33-1 Primary Metals Minerals and Quarrying 9. Base Metals & 32000 BASE METAL IN PRIMARY OR SEMI-FINISHED 33-1 Primary Metals 33-2 Fabricated Metals Products FORMS AND IN FINISHED BASIC SHAPES 33-2 Fabricated Metals 33-3 Machinery 33000 ARTICLES OF BASE METAL 33-4 Computers 33-5 Electrical products 33-6 Transportation Equip. 10. Basic 20000 BASIC CHEMICALS 32-5 Chemical All Manufacturing (31-33) Chemicals & 22000 FERTILIZERS AND FERTILIZER MATERIALS Products 23000 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS AND PREPARATIONS N.E.C.

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Forecasting CVS Commodity Classes Basis for Future Growth: Group Categories include 2-Digit SCTG level of detail, Percentage GDP change for CD (Ontario) except as indicated by italics or Province (outside of Ontario) Trip Origin Trip Destination 11. Machinery & 34000 MACHINERY 33-3 Machinery 23 Construction Electrical 35000 ELECTRONIC AND OTHER ELECTRICAL 33-4 Computers 44 Retail Trade EQUIPMENT AND COMPONENTS, AND OFFICE 33-5 Electrical products (0.5 x) All Manufacturing EQUIPMENT (31-33) 12. Transportation 36000 MOTORIZED AND OTHER VEHICLES 33-6 Transportation Equip. 44 Retail Trade Manufacturing (INCLUDES PARTS) 37000 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT N.E.C. 13. Other 9000 TOBACCO PRODUCTS 31-2 Textiles, Clothing & 44 Retail Trade Manufactured 21000 PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS Leather Products 24000 PLASTICS AND RUBBER 32-6 Plastics & Rubber 29000 PRINTED PRODUCTS 32-3 Printing 30000 TEXTILES, LEATHER, AND ARTICLES 33-8 Miscellaneous 38000 PRECISION INSTRUMENTS AND APPARATUS 33-4 Computers 39000 FURNITURE, MATTRESSES AND MATTRESS 33-5 Electrical products SUPPORTS, LAMPS, LIGHTING FITTINGS, AND 33-7 Furniture ILLUMINATED SIGNS 40000 MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS 43100 Mixed Freight for Restaurants or Retail (if further detail is not known) 43103 Mixed hardware or plumbing supplies 43104 Mixed construction materials 43105 Mixed department store merchandise 43200 Less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments, not otherwise specified

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Forecasting CVS Commodity Classes Basis for Future Growth: Group Categories include 2-Digit SCTG level of detail, Percentage GDP change for CD (Ontario) except as indicated by italics or Province (outside of Ontario) Trip Origin Trip Destination 14. Fuel (excluding 16000 CRUDE PETROLEUM OIL AND OILS OBTAINED 21-4 Oil & Gas Extraction 44 Retail Trade Coal) FROM BITUMINOUS MATERIALS INCLUDING 32-4 Petroleum & Coal FROM TAR SANDS * possibly adjust rate, 17000 GASOLINE AND AVIATION TURBINE FUEL AND taking into account ETHANOL (INCLUDES KEROSENE, AND FUEL climate change targets ALCOHOLS) 18000 FUEL OILS INCLUDING DIESEL AND BUNKER C 19000 PRODUCTS OF PETROLEUM REFINING N.E.C. AND COAL PRODUCTS 15. Empty 0 EMPTY Grow in proportion to reverse-direction total loaded truck 44000 SHIPPING CONTAINERS RETURNED EMPTY movements, e.g. if truck trips from A to B increase 25%, empty truck trips from B to A increase 25% 16. Mail 42100 MAIL AND PARCELS Grow in proportion to total other loaded truck movements for given origin and destination 17. Privately- 46000 PRIVATELY-OWNED GOODS BEING Population (not GDP) Population (not GDP) Owned Goods TRANSPORTED OR SERVICED

18. Non-Cargo 98000 VEHICLE NOT INTENDED TO CARRY CARGO Grow in proportion to total other loaded truck movements for (NON CARGO-CARRYING VEHICLE) given origin and destination 19. Waste 41000 WASTE AND SCRAP (EXCLUDES OF AGRICULTURAL OR FOOD, SEE 041XX)

20. Unknown 98000 VEHICLE NOT INTENDED TO CARRY CARGO (NON CARGO-CARRYING VEHICLE) 99999 NO RESPONSE OR NATURE OF CARGO NOT KNOWN

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Passenger Vehicle Forecasting Approach The passenger vehicle (PV) forecasting approach establishes current travel market volumes and forecast future demand. The approach follows these steps: 1. Estimate base-year market OD flows based on 2011–2012 Northern Ontario Passenger Vehicle Survey (PVS) trip table, and Provincial highway AADT, interpolating ODs for interprovincial travel, and determining the proportion of local traffic not captured in the surveys. 2. Develop trip growth rates by purpose based on population and employment. 3. Develop 2031 and 2041 forecast by applying growth rates to base-year demand and assigning trips to the network. 4. Develop seasonal forecasts (average annual, summer, winter), based on seasonal adjustment factors by trip purpose.

Establishing Base-Year Demand Passenger vehicle forecasting starts with data from the NOMTS Part 1 surveys at border locations and strategic highway locations. The difference between assigned flows and the passenger vehicle portion of AADT after subtracting truck flows will be treated as a separate local traffic market. Interprovincial flows by out-of-province residents not captured in the origin-destination surveys, are estimated together with local flows, as the distribution of these trips is not known with certainty. To compare origin-destination survey-based flows to the passenger-vehicle portion of AADT, the survey flows must first be converted to an average annual daily traffic basis. This means making seasonal traffic adjustments by trip purpose, and combining and factoring the available weekday, Sunday and/or Saturday flows to estimate flows on an AADT basis. Conversion of these flows is as follows:  Weekday data have a 5/7 weighting  Sundays data have a 1/7 weighting  Saturday data, where available, have a 1/7 weighting. Where no Saturday data are available, Sunday will be used a substitute, after first reversing the origins and destinations of trips longer than 250 km to better represent the opposite directionality of longer-distance weekend traffic at the start vs. the end of the weekend. Because some long-distance highway survey trips pass more than one survey location, double-counting of long-distance trips passing is taken into account by dividing the record’s expansion weight by the number of survey stations passed.

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Seasonal differences in flows are estimated by drawing on other sources, such as CANSIM’s monthly crossing data by licence plate jurisdiction, MTCS data on tourism flows, and previous studies, such as studies in Simcoe County, where it was found that weekday tourism flows in fall were about half that of summer tourism flows, and that work flows were 30% higher. Seasonal adjustment rates by trip purpose also result in a good fit compared to total changes in seasonal volumes available from MTO’s Provincial highway counts, after adjusting for commercial vehicle traffic, which is treated as constant through the year. Seasonal differences vary by market, for example, the seasonal variation of tourism trips by US travellers to Northern Ontario is much higher than the seasonal variation of tourism trips made by residents of Northern Ontario to the US.

Estimating Future-Year Demand The survey data includes trip purpose, which will be consolidated into four categories for the model:  Work/business/school;  Medical;  Vacation/recreation/tourism/social (including long-distance shopping); and  Discretionary/other (including shorter-distance shopping and personal business). The passenger forecasting process considers individual trip markets separately to apply growth rates based on the appropriate growth drivers in each market based on demographic projections. Separate future growth factors will be applied for each market. The tourism forecasting will be refined to be consistent with tourism forecasts developed by Hemson. Future year 2031 and 2041 growth rates will be developed using the future year population and employment forecasts, and the appropriate adjustments applied to estimate seasonal traffic variation.

Forecasting Results Forecasting results are discussed in Section 9 of the technical backgrounder.

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