REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 85

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th July 2021

st 1 July 2021

© NOCC July 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raïssa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°85 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th July 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021. This dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Monsoon over the national territory.

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, , Mbakaou and Banyo in the ; - , , , , , Monatele, , and Yoko in the ; - Yokadouma, , Lomie, , Abong-Mbang, Koso, , Mbalam and Belabo in the ; - Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima and Zoetele in the ; - Idenau, , , Limbe, Nguti and in the South-; - Loum, , , Melong, and Edea in the Littoral region

II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Gamboura, Mokolo, Bogo, and Mora in the Far ; - , , Poli, , Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and in the Adamawa region; - Garoua -Boulai and Betare-Oya in the East region; - Nguti and Fontem in the South West region. NB1: This dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West (, , , and ), North-West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou), East (Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai) and Centre (Yoko, Tikar, Ngoro and Akonolinga) regions.

II.2. For Precipitation The period from 1st to 10th July 2021 will be marked by a general decrease in rainfall amounts over the entire national territory, except for the Far North region, which could experience an increase in rainfall amounts, with significant risks of flooding.

st th NB 2: This dekad, from 1 to 10 July 2021 corresponds to:

- an intensification of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), characterized by a drastic

reduction in precipitation quantities. - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South-West regions) and the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by heavy rainfall; -the effective onset of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds, hail and lightning in the Far-North and North regions.

NB3: This dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 is favourable for the continuation of the sowing phase in the Sudano-Sahelian zone.

2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th July 2021

1) For precipitation

st th For the dekad from 1 to 10 July d) In the Highlands zone 2021, we expect: -rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in , , , Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Dschang, , Bazou, Mbouda, , Bangangte, Massagam and - sporadic rainfall and amounts Bare-Bakem in the West region; above the average recorded during - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th st th the dekad from 21 to 30 June June 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Bali, Batibo, 2021 in , Kaele, Kousseri, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako in the Maga and Bogo, accompanied by North West region; strong winds, storms, hail and

lightning in the Far-North region; e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone

- rainfall amounts slightly below the - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th average recorded during the dekad June 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, , Kumba, Buea,

st th from 21 to 30 June 2021 in Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, Bamusso, Dikome Balue and Fontem in the South West Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, region st th

Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, and - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30

Lagdo in the North region. June 2021 in Melong, , Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, , , Edea, Mbanga, , Douala, and Dizangue in the Littoral b) In the Guinean high savannah region zone - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Yimbere, Tignere and Banyo; around the average in Tibati, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone - rainfall amounts below the average st recorded during the dekad from 21 (a) (b) to 30th June 2021 in Mbalmayo, Yaounde, , Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and Ngambe Tilkar in the Centre region; - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Zoetele, , Sangmelima, Ambam, Lolodorf, Campo, Djoum, Kribi, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region; Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the period June 21-30, 2021 (a) Source: NOCC, July 2021 recorded during the dekad from 21st th to 30 June 2021 in Lomie, Belabo, NB 4: For the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021, we expect: Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, - an intensification of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, Moloundou, , Garoua- South and East regions), characterized by a drastic reduction in precipitation Boulai, Yokadouma, Batouri and quantities. Betare -Oya in the East region. - the continuity of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region); - the effective start of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds, hailstones, storms and lightning in the Far North and North regions.

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2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Based on the historical mean of average maximum temperatures Foumban, Koutaba, Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; above the historical mean in recorded during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, Foumbot and Makam in the West region notabl y 33.36°C in the Far North region; 31.71°C in the 29.10°C - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Eyumojock, Bamusso, in the Adamawa region; 27.53°C in the Centre region 27.30°C in Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Mamfe, Fontem, Nguti and Ekok; above the historical the South region; 28.10°C in the East region; 24.73°C in the mean in Idenau and Kumba in the South West region; 24.73°C in the West region; 25.41°C in the North West region; - Above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum, Yabassi, Melong, Edea, 25.99°C in the West region; 25.99°C in the South West region and Dibombari and Douala; and around the historical mean in Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, Ndokiti st th 25.62°C in the Littoral region. For the dekad from 1 to 10 July III, Nkondjock, Manjo, Ndokama, Mouanko, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral region. 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: - Below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Kousseri, , Maga, Bogo, Waza, Gamboura, Mokolo, Makary, Mora, Kaele and Mindif in the Far-North region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou; below the historical mean in Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Yoko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, (a) (b) Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Eseka, Obala, Yaounde and Ngambe Tikar in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, , Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam, Belabo,Mindourou and Doume; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai and around the mean in Mambele, Libongo and Betare-Oya in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Sangmelima, Ambam, and Zoetele; around the historical mean in Kribi, Akom II, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Lolodorf; below the historical mean in Campo in the South region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu- Awa, Ako and Audu; around the historical mean in Munkep, Ako, Bali, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Kumbo, Bambalang, Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the Fundong, Benakuma, Nwa and Wum; below the historical mean in same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, July 2021) Esu in the North West region; 4

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Benakuma, recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021, for the dekad Esu, Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Wum and Audu in the North West from 1st to 10th July 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: region; - Below the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June st th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2021 in Bangangte, 2021 in Mindif, Maroua, Yagoua, Kaele, Mora, Maga, Mokolo, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, , Bafang, Bazou,

Kousseri, Waza, Makary and Bogo in the Far North region; Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West region. - below the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Poli, Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Guider, Touboro, Pitoa and Dembo in the North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou, Tibati, Ngaoundere, Yimbere, Nassarao; below the mean in Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Dimako, Mindourou, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Kongolo, Doume, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua; below the mean in Garoua-Boulai and Betare-Oya in the (a) (b) East region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Ngoro, , Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, , Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Eseka, Obala, Ngambe Tikar and Yaounde in the Centre region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Minkoumou, Campo, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, Ambam, Kribi, Akom II and Sangmelima in the South region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Bamusso, Ekok, Eyumojock, Mamfe, Idenau, Nguti, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Fontem and Buea; below the mean in Tiko, Limbe, Mundemba and Kumba in the South-West region; st th st th Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 (b) compared to - around the mean recorded from 21 to 30 June 2021 in Loum, those recorded for the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, July 2021 Mouanko, Yabassi, Mbanga and Manjo, Melong, Nkongsamba, , Ngambe, , Ndom, Dizangue, Douala, , Edea 5 to Ndokama and Baptek in the Littoral region;

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou and Banyo, in the Adamawa region;

- Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre region;

- Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo, in the East region; - Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima and Zoetele, in the South region; - Idenau, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Nguti and Kumba, in the South West region; - Loum, Yabassi, Manjo, Melong, Douala and Edea, in the Littoral region.

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b) For Minimum Temperatures - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa, Ako and Audu; around Based on the historical mean of minimum temperatures recorded the historical mean in Wum, Nwa, Munkep, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop and from 1979 to 2018, notably 23.75°C in the Far North region; 23°C Benakuma in the North-West region; in the North region; 20.20°C in the Adamawa region; 19°C in the - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, Centre region; 20.78°C in the South region; 19.67°C in the East Mundemba, Nguti, Dikome Bafaw, Mamfe, Ekang and Eyumojock; above the historical mean in region, 16.29°C in the West region; 16.57°C in the North West Idenau, Tiko, Limbe, Buea and Kumba in the South West region; region; 19.60°C in the South West region and 20.2°C in the - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mouanko, Littoral region, we expect minimum temperatures: Douala, Edea and Baptek; around the historical ean in Ndokama, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, - below the historical mean recorded during the same period from Manjo, Penja, Nkongsamba and Loum in the Littoral region. 1979 to 2018 in Gamboura, Mindif, Mokolo and Mora; around the

historical mean in Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version). and Yagoua in the Far North region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo and Lagdo; below the historical mean in Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - below the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; above the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, , Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, Bafia, (a) Mbalmayo, Ngambe Tikar, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde in the (b) Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Batouri and Moloundou; above the historical mean in Ngoyla and Kozo; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai and Betare-Oya in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi, Djoum, Campo, Zoetele and Ebolowa; below the historical mean in Lolodorf; around the historical mean in Akom II, Nyabizan and Ambam in the South region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Tonga, Bangangte; above the historical mean in Bazou, Makam, Foumbot, Foumban and Koutaba in the West Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (1-10 July 2021) (b) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, June 2021 region;

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st th Based on the difference between the average minimum - around the mean recorded from 21 to 30 June 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, Ekok, temperatures recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 June Ekang Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Buea, Kumba, Fontem and st th 2021, for the dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 we expect Nguti in the South-West Region. minimum temperatures: -around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Mora, Bogo, Mokolo Yagoua, Makary, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Maroua and Waza; below average in Mindif, in the Far-North Region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Tchollire, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Poli and Touboro; below the mean in Guider, in the North Region - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Banyo, Tibati and Tignere; below the mean in Banyo, Meiganga and Ngaoundere, in the Adamawa Region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Ngambe Tikar, Yaounde, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Eseka, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Obala, Mbalmayo and (a) (b) Nkoteng, in the Centre Region - around the mean recorded during the period from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Moloundou, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Betare-Oya, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Lomie, Yokadouma, Doume, Mindourou, Belabo and Batouri, in the East Region - around the mean recorded during the period from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Ebolowa, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Djoum and Lolodorf, in the South Region - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Makam Mbouda, Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot, in the West Region - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Furu Awa, Wum, Nwa and Audu, in the North-West Region st th - around the mean recorded from 21 to 30 June 2021 in Penja, Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba, from 21st to 30th June 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, July 2021 Yabassi, Mouanko, Edea, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral Region 8

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from

1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include: -Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North region;

- Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Betare-Oya, in the East region; - Nguti and Fontem, in the South West region.

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IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A h igh risk of recording cases of: A high risk of: -destruction of plantations in many localities in the South-West, North-West and - falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains accompanied by Littoral Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. strong winds in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, Guinean high savannah zone, the st th monomodal rain forest zone and the highlands zone; NB 5: This dekad from 1 to 10 July 2021 is favourable for the continuation of the sowing phase in the Far North and North region. -contamination of soil water, surface water and water catchment points by polluted runoffs in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, b) In the health sector: the Guinean high savannah zone and the Highlands zone. A ris k of recording cases of: e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: -water-borne diseases (typhoid, yeast, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the poor A high risk of recording numerous cases of: quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones; - morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in the Centre, South -cholera in some settlements of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Mokolo, Maga, and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west (Highlands Mora, Garoua, Pitoa, etc.), and the Guinean High Savannah zone, due to the zone) and South-West (monomodal rain forest zone); contamination of drinking water by polluted run-off water. - flooding in some localities of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Garoua, Pitoa, -respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, coughs, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), Mokolo etc.), the bimodal rainforest zone (Kribi), the monomodal rainforest zone in the Monomodal Rainforest Zone, the Highlands Zone., due to cold and (Douala, Nkongsamba etc.); humidity; - landslides in some localities in the North West and West regions (Highlands -general pathologies (hypertension, diabetes) as well as people suffering from Zone), the Littoral and South West, due to waterlogging from rain recorded from obesity and women in menopause as a result of the night heat, in some localities of the beginning of the rainy season, as well as in the Adamawa and East artisanal the five Agro ecological zones. mineral exploitation sites. -multiplication of malaria-causing mosquitoes in the five agro-ecological zones. f) In the public works sector: c) For the livestock sector A risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording; - degradation of roads in the Highlands zone (West and North-West Regions), • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West), due to heavy localities of the West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), rainfall; North-West Region (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); - destruction of bridges and other crossing structures in some localities of the • cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by Highlands zone, the Monomodal Rain Forest zone, the Guinean High Savannah zone and the Sudano-Sahelian zone due to heavy and strong heavy thunder in the Guinean high savannah zone. . Cases of loss of livestock through drowning in some localities in the Sudano- rainfall. Sahelian zone.

10 st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2021

High Guinean Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rain forest High plateau Mono-modal Rain Forest Savannah Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 24.51 23.37 20.38 19.55 19 20.63 16.55 16.67 19.54 20

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 77 80.6 83.5 80 82.2 85.1 83 83.7 84 80.7 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 34.34 32.29 29.20 28.55 28 27.83 24.73 25.50 26.28 25.94 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 83 80.5 83 85.8 86.2 84.1 85.5 84 85.3 83.8 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period:

In the Agriculture sector, to: ▪ Plan agricultural activities, notably the sowing phase in the Guinean High Savannah zone, and maintenance in the South regions of the country with reference to the agricultural calendar produced by NOCC for the 2021 Agricultural season.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness on the need to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (washing food items, filtering drinking water and cooking food before consumption in households, use of latrines, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly to protect yourself from cold; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases (cholera) in order to take care of them. ▪ carry out vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to continue: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]