REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 85 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th July 2021 st 1 July 2021 © NOCC July 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raïssa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°85 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th July 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021. This dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Monsoon over the national territory. II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima and Zoetele in the South region; - Idenau, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Nguti and Kumba in the South-West region; - Loum, Yabassi, Manjo, Melong, Douala and Edea in the Littoral region II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: -Gamboura, Mokolo, Bogo, Mindif and Mora in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Betare-Oya in the East region; - Nguti and Fontem in the South West region. NB1: This dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou), East (Betare-Oya and Garoua-Boulai) and Centre (Yoko, Ngambe Tikar, Ngoro and Akonolinga) regions. II.2. For Precipitation The period from 1st to 10th July 2021 will be marked by a general decrease in rainfall amounts over the entire national territory, except for the Far North region, which could experience an increase in rainfall amounts, with significant risks of flooding. st th NB 2: This dekad, from 1 to 10 July 2021 corresponds to: - an intensification of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), characterized by a drastic reduction in precipitation quantities. - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South-West regions) and the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by heavy rainfall; -the effective onset of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds, hail and lightning in the Far-North and North regions. NB3: This dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021 is favourable for the continuation of the sowing phase in the Sudano-Sahelian zone. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th July 2021 1) For precipitation st th For the dekad from 1 to 10 July d) In the Highlands zone 2021, we expect: -rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, Bafang, a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Dschang, Batcham, Bazou, Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bangangte, Massagam and - sporadic rainfall and amounts Bare-Bakem in the West region; above the average recorded during - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th st th the dekad from 21 to 30 June June 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Bali, Batibo, 2021 in Maroua, Kaele, Kousseri, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako in the Maga and Bogo, accompanied by North West region; strong winds, storms, hail and lightning in the Far-North region; e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone - rainfall amounts slightly below the - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th average recorded during the dekad June 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, st th from 21 to 30 June 2021 in Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, Bamusso, Dikome Balue and Fontem in the South West Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, region st th Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 Lagdo in the North region. June 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Edea, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral b) In the Guinean high savannah region zone - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Yimbere, Tignere and Banyo; around the average in Tibati, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone - rainfall amounts below the average st recorded during the dekad from 21 (a) (b) to 30th June 2021 in Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Nanga-Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and Ngambe Tilkar in the Centre region; - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021 in Zoetele, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Ambam, Lolodorf, Campo, Djoum, Kribi, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region; Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that - rainfall amounts below the average recorded during the period June 21-30, 2021 (a) Source: NOCC, July 2021 st recorded during the dekad from 21 th to 30 June 2021 in Lomie, Belabo, NB 4: For the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2021, we expect: Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, - an intensification of the short dry season in the bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, Moloundou, Mindourou, Garoua- South and East regions), characterized by a drastic reduction in precipitation Boulai, Yokadouma, Batouri and quantities. Betare -Oya in the East region. - the continuity of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region); - the effective start of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds, hailstones, storms and lightning in the Far North and North regions. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Based on the historical mean of average maximum temperatures Foumban, Koutaba, Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; above the historical mean in recorded during this dekad over the