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Al-Qaeda and the Bomb: How Institutions Protect Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism Scott D american academy of arts & sciences summer 2014 www.amacad.org Bulletin vol. lxvii, no. 4 Growing Pains in a Rising China Elizabeth J. Perry, Benjamin L. Liebman, Ching Kwan Lee, and Barry Naughton Al-Qaeda and the Bomb: How Institutions Protect Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism Scott D. Sagan, Thomas Hegghammer, Paul N. Stockton, Jessica Stern, and Matthew Bunn The Universe Is Stranger Than We Thought Martin Rees, Wendy Freedman, and Richard A. Meserve ALSO: Public Trust in Vaccines American and British Academies Discuss the Future of the Humanities At Berkeley Intellectual Diversity and The Heart of the Matter Upcoming Events OCTOBER NOVEMBER 10th–12th 12th Cambridge, MA House of the Academy, Cambridge Induction Weekend On Russia 10th A Celebration of the Arts Featuring: Timothy Colton (Harvard Uni- and Humanities versity), George W. Breslauer (University of California, Berkeley), and Valerie Jane 11th Induction Ceremony Bunce (Cornell University) 12th Closing Program, featuring Robert Ballard (Ocean Exploration Trust; Institute for DECEMBER Archaeological Oceanography; University of Rhode Island 4th Graduate School of Oceanography) New York City NOVEMBER The Invention of Courts Featuring: Judith Resnik (Yale Law 8th School), Linda Greenhouse (Yale Law Chicago, IL School), Jonathan Lippman (Chief Judge in collaboration with the of the State of New York and Chief Judge Chicago Humanities Festival of the Court of Appeals), Susan S. Silbey (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), The Humanities and “Soft Power” and Jamal Greene (Columbia Law School) Featuring: Karl W. Eikenberry (Stanford University; former U.S. Ambassador to 10th Afghanistan; retired U.S. Army Lieutenant House of the Academy, Cambridge General) Winter Concert Featuring members of the Boston Symphony Orchestra For updates and additions to the calendar, visit www.amacad.org. Special Thanks e recently completed another successful fund-raising year with more than $6.5 Wmillion raised. The Annual Fund surpassed $1.6 million for the third consec- utive year and exceeded its goal. Gifts from all other sources–including grants for projects–totaled more than $4.9 million. The generosity of an increasing number of contributors–including Members, staff, and friends; foundations, corporations, and associations; and University Affiliates– made these results possible, and we are grateful. A complete list of contributors will be sent to all Members in the fall and will also be available on the Academy’s website. From the President I started my work as President of the Academy on July 1 and appreciate the warm welcome from Members and staff. I am impressed by the breadth and quality of studies underway at the Acad- emy and by the engagement of so many Members in its work. I hope to increase the number of Members active in the Academy, and I encourage you and other Members to share your thoughts about the future of the Academy as well as your own interests. My email address is [email protected], and I look forward to your comments and ideas. I commend this Summer issue of the Bulletin to you. It provides a rich sample of projects and publications underway at the Academy, including the follow up to The Heart of the Matter, a new report on Public Trust in Vaccines and another from the Global Nuclear Future project on Insider Threats, as well as an article on the recent issue of Dædalus on “The Invention of Courts.” In addition, the pre- sentations on “Growing Pains in a Rising China,” “Protecting Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism,” and “The Universe is Stranger Than We Thought” exem- plify the wide range of topics that concern the Academy and its Members. Please be sure to read Carnegie Mellon University President Subra Suresh’s closing essay about the importance of the humanities and social sciences to helping solve environmental challenges facing our world. He says, in part, “There is increasing recognition that the planet’s most severe problems cannot be treated as if they are solvable only by great engineering and scientific solutions. AsThe Heart of the Matter recognizes, the social sciences and humanities hold a key to our inno- vation ecosystem that will enable us to make more rapid progress in addressing major challenges.” That speaks well to the comparative advantage the Academy has to bring together distinguished individuals from every field of human endeavor “to culti- vate every art and science which may tend to advance the interest, honor, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, and virtuous people.” I look forward to making common cause with you in the years ahead. Contents Projects and Activities 3 Academy Report Calls for More Research on Parental Decision-Making on Childhood Vaccines 5 Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy HUMANITIES 6 The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism from INDICATORS Insider Threats 9 The Academy Rolls Out Three New Research Tools 11 The American and British Academies Discuss the Future of the Humanities 13 Around the Country 16 Dædalus Examines “The Invention of Courts” Presentations 17 Growing Pains in a Rising China 25 At Berkeley, a new documentary by Frederick Wiseman 33 Al-Qaeda and the Bomb: How Institutions Protect Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism 40 The Universe Is Stranger Than We Thought 49 Intellectual Diversity and The Heart of the Matter Update on Members Clockwise from top left: The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism from Insider Threats; Humanities Indicators; Barry Naughton; Scott D. Sagan; Subra Suresh; Wendy Freedman, George W. 51 Noteworthy Breslauer; Elizabeth J. Perry 55 Remembrance projects and activities Academy Report Calls for More Research on Parental Decision-Making on Childhood Vaccines he drumbeat of headlines about the latest measles, mumps, or pertussis (whooping cough) outbreaks offers evidence Tof a frightening reality: growing numbers of parents are either delaying or selectively administering immunizations– or choosing not to vaccinate their children at all. A new Academy report, Public Trust in Vaccines: Defining a Research Agenda, makes clear that reversing this trend requires dedicated research on how vaccine decisions are made and the best ways to communicate factual information to vaccine-hesitant parents. The report is based on a September 2013 Academy workshop ence Writing at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and that convened leading researchers, practitioners, and policy- author of The Panic Virus: The True Story Behind the Vaccine-Autism makers across a range of disciplines, from anthropology and Controversy. communications to pediatric medicine and public health. The The following excerpt from Public Trust in Vaccines delineates workshop was chaired by Barry Bloom, former Dean of the Har- priorities for future research that would elucidate how health care vard School of Public Health; Edgar Marcuse, Professor Emer- providers can best communicate with undecided parents about the itus of Pediatrics at the University of Washington; and Seth individual and community benefits of childhood vaccinations. The Mnookin, Associate Director of the Graduate Program in Sci- full report is available at www.amacad.org/vaccines. A Proposed Research Agenda Central Problem ver the past two decades, a combination of fraudulent scien- As the scope of the problem has become more apparent, the pub- Otific studies, irresponsible reporting, and well-meaning but lic health and medical communities have begun to examine the best misinformed citizen activists has led to a steady increase in the ways to communicate with anxious or wary parents. There has not, proportion of parents who have concerns about the recommended however, been a concerted effort to develop an evidenced-based childhood vaccine schedule. While overall vaccine uptake rates in toolkit to guide these discussions. The following suggested areas of the United States remain high, these concerns have resulted in a sig- research would provide the necessary data for such an effort. nificant expansion in the number of parents who are delaying, and in extreme cases even refusing, vaccines for their children. Core Issues and Recommendations for Research These actions have led to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable dis- eases: The largest domestic measles outbreak of the past 15 years 1. Parental Attitudes and Knowledge occurred in 2013, and 2011 and 2013 were the two years with the zzWhen and how are attitudes and beliefs about immunization highest number of domestic measles infections since the 1990s. formed? All of the measles outbreaks in 2013 were caused by infections that zHow do parents learn about vaccines? Where do they originated outside of the country–and the overwhelming majority encounter vaccine information, and how are they influ- of the secondary infections occurred in deliberately unvaccinated enced by messages from expert and non-expert sources? children or infants too young to be vaccinated. The human and eco- zHow does the perception of the benefits to the individual nomic costs of these outbreaks are worthy of attention; one recent versus the community shape a parent’s decision to vacci- study estimated that the public sector cost of containing a single case nate his or her child? of measles is more than $10,000.1 zTo what extent does vaccine hesitancy result from a broader distrust in government and science? 1 David E. Sugarman et al., “Measles Outbreak in a Highly Vaccinated Pop- zzWhen are prospective parents or parents of infants most ulation, San Diego, 2008: Role of the Intentionally Undervaccinated,” Pediat- rics 125 (4) (April
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