Al-Qaeda and the Bomb: How Institutions Protect Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism Scott D

american academy of arts & sciences

summer 2014 www.amacad.org Bulletin vol. lxvii, no. 4

Growing Pains in a Rising China Elizabeth J. Perry, Benjamin L. Liebman, Ching Kwan Lee, and Barry Naughton

Al-Qaeda and the Bomb: How Institutions Protect Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism Scott D. Sagan, Thomas Hegghammer, Paul N. Stockton, Jessica Stern, and Matthew Bunn

The Universe Is Stranger Than We Thought Martin Rees, Wendy Freedman, and Richard A. Meserve

ALSO: Public Trust in Vaccines American and British Academies Discuss the Future of the Humanities At Berkeley Intellectual Diversity and The Heart of the Matter Upcoming Events

OCTOBER NOVEMBER 10th–12th 12th Cambridge, MA House of the Academy, Cambridge Induction Weekend On Russia 10th A Celebration of the Arts Featuring: Timothy Colton (Harvard Uni- and Humanities versity), George W. Breslauer (University of California, Berkeley), and Valerie Jane 11th Induction Ceremony Bunce (Cornell University) 12th Closing Program, featuring Robert Ballard (Ocean Exploration Trust; Institute for DECEMBER Archaeological Oceanography; University of Rhode Island 4th Graduate School of Oceanography) New York City NOVEMBER The Invention of Courts Featuring: Judith Resnik (Yale Law 8th School), Linda Greenhouse (Yale Law Chicago, IL School), Jonathan Lippman (Chief Judge in collaboration with the of the State of New York and Chief Judge Chicago Humanities Festival of the Court of Appeals), Susan S. Silbey (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), The Humanities and “Soft Power” and Jamal Greene (Columbia Law School) Featuring: Karl W. Eikenberry (Stanford University; former U.S. Ambassador to 10th Afghanistan; retired U.S. Army Lieutenant House of the Academy, Cambridge General) Winter Concert Featuring members of the Boston Symphony Orchestra

For updates and additions to the calendar, visit www.amacad.org.

Special Thanks

e recently completed another successful fund-raising year with more than $6.5 Wmillion raised. The Annual Fund surpassed $1.6 million for the third consecutive year and exceeded its goal. Gifts from all other sources–including grants for projects–totaled more than $4.9 million. The generosity of an increasing number of contributors–including Members, staff, and friends; foundations, corporations, and associations; and University Affiliates– made these results possible, and we are grateful. A complete list of contributors will be sent to all Members in the fall and will also be available on the Academy’s website. From the President

I started my work as President of the Academy on July 1 and appreciate the warm welcome from Members and staff. I am impressed by the breadth and quality of studies underway at the Acad- emy and by the engagement of so many Members in its work. I hope to increase the number of Members active in the Academy, and I encourage you and other Members to share your thoughts about the future of the Academy as well as your own interests. My email address is [email protected], and I look forward to your comments and ideas. I commend this Summer issue of the Bulletin to you. It provides a rich sample of projects and publications underway at the Academy, including the follow up to The Heart of the Matter, a new report on Public Trust in Vaccines and another from the Global Nuclear Future project on Insider Threats, as well as an article on the recent issue of Dædalus on “The Invention of Courts.” In addition, the presentations on “Growing Pains in a Rising China,” “Protecting Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism,” and “The Universe is Stranger Than We Thought” exem- plify the wide range of topics that concern the Academy and its Members. Please be sure to read Carnegie Mellon University President Subra Suresh’s closing essay about the importance of the humanities and social sciences to helping solve environmental challenges facing our world. He says, in part, “There is increasing recognition that the planet’s most severe problems cannot be treated as if they are solvable only by great engineering and scientific solutions. AsThe Heart of the Matter recognizes, the social sciences and humanities hold a key to our innovation ecosystem that will enable us to make more rapid progress in addressing major challenges.” That speaks well to the comparative advantage the Academy has to bring together distinguished individuals from every field of human endeavor “to culti- vate every art and science which may tend to advance the interest, honor, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, and virtuous people.” I look forward to making common cause with you in the years ahead. Contents

Projects and Activities

3 Academy Report Calls for More Research on Parental Decision-Making on Childhood Vaccines 5 Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy HUMANITIES 6 The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism from INDICATORS Insider Threats

9 The Academy Rolls Out Three New Research Tools

11 The American and British Academies Discuss the Future of the Humanities

13 Around the Country

16 Dædalus Examines “The Invention of Courts”

Presentations

17 Growing Pains in a Rising China

25 At Berkeley, a new documentary by Frederick Wiseman

33 Al-Qaeda and the Bomb: How Institutions Protect Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism

40 The Universe Is Stranger Than We Thought

49 Intellectual Diversity and The Heart of the Matter

Update on Members Clockwise from top left: The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism from Insider Threats; Humanities Indicators; Barry Naughton; Scott D. Sagan; Subra Suresh; Wendy Freedman, George W. 51 Noteworthy Breslauer; Elizabeth J. Perry 55 Remembrance projects and activities

Academy Report Calls for More Research on Parental Decision-Making on Childhood Vaccines

he drumbeat of headlines about the latest measles, mumps, or pertussis (whooping cough) outbreaks offers evidence Tof a frightening reality: growing numbers of parents are either delaying or selectively administering immunizations– or choosing not to vaccinate their children at all. A new Academy report, Public Trust in Vaccines: Defining a Research Agenda, makes clear that reversing this trend requires dedicated research on how vaccine decisions are made and the best ways to communicate factual information to vaccine-hesitant parents.

The report is based on a September 2013 Academy workshop ence Writing at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and that convened leading researchers, practitioners, and policy- author of The Panic Virus: The True Story Behind the Vaccine-Autism makers across a range of disciplines, from anthropology and Controversy. communications to pediatric medicine and public health. The The following excerpt from Public Trust in Vaccines delineates workshop was chaired by Barry Bloom, former Dean of the Har- priorities for future research that would elucidate how health care vard School of Public Health; Edgar Marcuse, Professor Emer- providers can best communicate with undecided parents about the itus of Pediatrics at the University of Washington; and Seth individual and community benefits of childhood vaccinations. The Mnookin, Associate Director of the Graduate Program in Sci- full report is available at www.amacad.org/vaccines.

A Proposed Research Agenda

Central Problem

ver the past two decades, a combination of fraudulent scien- As the scope of the problem has become more apparent, the pub- Otific studies, irresponsible reporting, and well-meaning but lic health and medical communities have begun to examine the best misinformed citizen activists has led to a steady increase in the ways to communicate with anxious or wary parents. There has not, proportion of parents who have concerns about the recommended however, been a concerted effort to develop an evidenced-based childhood vaccine schedule. While overall vaccine uptake rates in toolkit to guide these discussions. The following suggested areas of the United States remain high, these concerns have resulted in a sig- research would provide the necessary data for such an effort. nificant expansion in the number of parents who are delaying, and in extreme cases even refusing, vaccines for their children. Core Issues and Recommendations for Research These actions have led to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases: The largest domestic measles outbreak of the past 15 years 1. Parental Attitudes and Knowledge occurred in 2013, and 2011 and 2013 were the two years with the zzWhen and how are attitudes and beliefs about immunization highest number of domestic measles infections since the 1990s. formed? All of the measles outbreaks in 2013 were caused by infections that How do parents learn about vaccines? Where do they originated outside of the country–and the overwhelming majority encounter vaccine information, and how are they influ- of the secondary infections occurred in deliberately unvaccinated enced by messages from expert and non-expert sources? children or infants too young to be vaccinated. The human and eco- How does the perception of the benefits to the individual nomic costs of these outbreaks are worthy of attention; one recent versus the community shape a parent’s decision to vacci- study estimated that the public sector cost of containing a single case nate his or her child? of measles is more than $10,000.1 To what extent does vaccine hesitancy result from a broader distrust in government and science? 1 David E. Sugarman et al., “Measles Outbreak in a Highly Vaccinated Pop- zzWhen are prospective parents or parents of infants most ulation, San Diego, 2008: Role of the Intentionally Undervaccinated,” Pediat- rics 125 (4) (April 1, 2010): 747–755; originally published online March 22, receptive to information about vaccines (e.g., during prenatal 2010, doi: 10.1542/peds.2009-1653. care visits, at the first well-child visit, etc.)?

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 3 projects and activities

Answering these questions will require longitudinal studies A Call for Action within individual communities to assess how and when parents arrive at vaccination decisions, how their attitudes and beliefs Childhood vaccination is a cornerstone of a healthy society–an change over time, and what information sources (e.g., primary care essential bulwark against infections that, though currently in the physicians, Internet/television, social media, local social networks, shadows, inevitably reappear when public health defenses are family and friends, etc.) most strongly influence their decisions. down. In the United States, overall childhood vaccination cov- These studies should sample prospective parents in young adult- erage is still strong. But recent increases in immunization delay hood, expectant parents during pregnancy, parents immediately and refusal–and the resulting cases and outbreaks of preventable after the birth of their children, and parents when their children diseases–are a harbinger of danger. are scheduled to receive recommended vaccines. Reversing this situation will require that public health leaders develop and promote evidence-based actions to increase the optimal 2. The Medical Encounter use of vaccines. Therefore, it is critical that government agencies and private foundations support and prioritize cross-disciplinary research zzHow can providers best determine parents’ attitudes about on immunization decision-making, as well as evaluate the effec- immunization? tiveness of health communication strategies. The research agenda zzHow can providers best respond to parental concerns? presented here provides a foundation for enhancing both parent- zzHow can providers best present their science-based vaccine provider and health agency communication. At stake is not only the recommendations? physical health of the U.S. population, but also our nation’s basic zzCould a “checklist” for providers be developed to improve trust in science-based public health recommendations. A modern communications with parents? and well-functioning society can afford no less. n Researchers should evaluate the effectiveness of communication strategies, including negotiation, used by all clinicians when Reprinted from American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Pub- discussing childhood vaccination with parents. A clearinghouse lic Trust in Vaccines: Defining a Research Agenda (Cambridge, Mass.: of vaccination-related interventions and innovations, drawing on American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2014). data from state and local immunization managers and from other countries, and how these interventions affect uptake of childhood vaccinations, would facilitate such studies.

3. At-Risk Communities

zzWhat are the most effective ways to identify geographic communities at increased risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks? zzAre there common features among these communities? zzDo social networks play a different role in these communities than in communities at lower risk for vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks? zzHow does peer-to-peer communication influence vaccine acceptance and uptake? zzIn the case of communities or demographic groups that are apt to delay or refuse childhood vaccinations, what types of community-based interventions would have the largest effect on vaccine uptake?

4 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014

Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy Barry R. Bloom, Edgar Marcuse, and Seth Mnookin

ast month, the World Health Organization certified India and Southeast Asia as being polio-free, an extraordinary L achievement given that the polio vaccine was declared safe and effective only 59 years ago. Vaccines are one of the safest and most cost-effective medical interventions in history. By immunizing infants, children, and teenagers, vaccines protect the entire community. Nevertheless, there is a surge of outbreaks in vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States. What research is needed to reverse this trend?

The crux of the problem is our inability to demonstrate to skep- ary group of scientists, clinicians, and social scientists convened at tical parents that vaccinations save lives. On the one hand, the the American Academy of Arts and Sciences to discuss priorities United States has sustained impressive uptake rates for vaccina- in communication research that would provide specific solutions tions overall. During the 2012–2013 school year, the median cov- on how to move forward. The group’s conclusion (the report, for erage was about 92% for vaccines against measles-mumps-rubella, which we were co-chairs, has just been released†) was that we need diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis, and varicella. Yet over the research that addresses how and when attitudes and beliefs about past 5 years, outbreaks of everything from measles to mumps to vaccines are formed, how people make decisions about immuniza- pertussis show that there is a growing number of communities tion, how best to present information about vaccines to hesitant with vaccine coverage below the levels needed to maintain herd parents, and how to identify communities at risk of vaccine-pre- immunity–when vaccination of a substantial portion of a popula- ventable disease outbreaks. A study of the 2008 San Diego measles tion protects those who have not developed immunity. Many fac- outbreak‡ found that the cost to the public health system of each tors probably contribute to this decline: exposure to a report (that measles infection was $10,376, whereas the total cost to contain the was later retracted) linking the measles vaccine to autism, warnings outbreak was $124,517. If the type of research proposed by the Amer- from ill-informed peers, scare tactics of antivaccine groups, and ican Academy report helps to prevent even a handful of outbreaks, misinformation by celebrity personalities. Regardless of the source, it will have more than paid for itself. the results are the same: debilitating infections, hospitalizations, Strategies to combat antivaccine messages cannot be developed and in tragic cases, death. by educated guesswork. Evidence-based approaches that facilitate This frustrating reality illustrates that the facts do not always vaccination are needed if we are to prevent diseases that can easily speak for themselves. We need only look at Western Europe to see be avoided and fulfill the potential of modern vaccine research.n how a few dozen cases of a vaccine-preventable disease can explode into a countrywide epidemic: In 2007, France reported 40 measles † Public Trust in Vaccines: Defining a Research Agenda is available at www cases; in 2011, there were 15,000 cases with 6 deaths. In 2011, the .amacad.org/vaccines. United States experienced its largest number of individual measles ‡ David E. Sugerman et al., “Measles Outbreak in a Highly Vaccinated cases (222) and outbreaks (17) since 1996. The source of nearly every Population, San Diego, 2008: Role of the Intentionally Undervaccinated,” Pediatrics 125 (2010): 747. outbreak was someone who was intentionally unvaccinated–often a U.S. resident traveling abroad or someone of unknown vaccine From Science 344 (25 April 2014): 339. Reprinted with permission status. 2013 saw the largest single measles outbreak (58 patients) in from the American Association for the Advancement of Science. the United States in nearly 20 years. A recent report concluded that current public health communication about vaccines may actually increase misperceptions or reduce vaccination intention, and that attempts to increase con- Barry R. Bloom is Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, Depart- cerns about communicable diseases or correct false claims about ment of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, and former Dean of the Harvard vaccines may be counterproductive.* Research is needed to develop School of Public Health at Harvard University. He is a Fellow of the American evidence-based strategies that guide health care providers on how Academy of Arts and Sciences. best to communicate the importance of immunization to parents Edgar Marcuse is Emeritus Professor of Pediatrics at the University of Washington. who are uncertain about what to believe. Last fall, an interdisciplin- Seth Mnookin is the Associate Director of the Graduate Program in Science Writ- * Available at http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2014/ ing at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His most recent book is “The 02/25/peds.2013-2365. Panic Virus: The True Story Behind the Vaccine-Autism Controversy.”

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 5 projects and activities

The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism from Insider Threats

he risk of nuclear terrorism has guided and informed the work of the Academy’s Global Nuclear Future Initiative Tsince its inception in 2008. The project’s most recent publication, A Worst Practices Guide to Insider Threats: Lessons from Past Mistakes, by Scott D. Sagan (Stanford University) and Matthew Bunn (Harvard University), highlights one particular aspect of nuclear terrorism: the problem of insider threats. In the past decade, thanks to the enormous efforts of the United States, working in cooperation with the leaders of many other governments, ngos, think tanks, and international organizations, there has been some success in preventing non-state actors from acquiring nuclear material.

In 2004, the Bush administration garnered consensus for the relevance of the gift baskets that countries have been willing to adoption of United Nations Resolution 1540 on Nuclear Terror- commit to. The ½rst meeting was held in Washington, D.C., in ism. The resolution, sponsored jointly by the United States and 2010 and forty-seven countries attended; the second meeting France, and approved unanimously by the un Security Council, took place in Seoul, South Korea, in 2012 with ½fty-three coun- states that the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological tries in attendance; and the third and most recent meeting was weapons and their means of delivery constitute a threat to inter- held in 2014 in the Netherlands with ½fty-eight countries partic- national peace and security. As such, the resolution requires all ipating. The next (and perhaps ½nal) summit is planned for 2016 states to adopt legislation to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, in Washington, D.C. chemical, and biological weapons, and their means of delivery, These three Nuclear Security Summits have made significant prog- and to establish appropriate domestic controls over related mate- ress toward forging global awareness on the issue of nuclear terrorism rials to prevent their illicit trafficking. Two years later, the United and creating international and domestic consensus to adopt costly yet States, in cooperation with Russia, launched the Global Initiative necessary measures to protect countries from the threat of nuclear to Combat Nuclear Terrorism terrorism. Most notably, several (gicnt), a multilateral initiative countries attending the summits to strengthen the global capacity Most of the efforts to reduce the pledged their intention to convert to prevent, detect, and respond risks of nuclear terrorism focus civilian nuclear facilities from to nuclear terrorism. highly enriched uranium (heu) to The Obama administration on preventing external attacks non-weapons useable materials. has endorsed the nuclear security Included among these countries agenda launched by President that could create a Chernobyl-like are some legacy countries, such Bush and has worked to expand event or would enable a terrorist as Mexico, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, its mission and outreach. In his Belgium, United Kingdom, and historic speech in Prague in April to steal fissile material to make a Norway, and some nuclear new- 2009, President Obama stated, nuclear bomb. comers, such as Vietnam, whose “One terrorist with one nuclear nuclear energy program is only in weapon could unleash massive its infancy. In addition, the coun- destruction. To protect our people, we must act with a sense of pur- tries in attendance, including Indonesia, which previously opposed pose without delay.” In the same speech, the president launched the nuclear security agenda because it was seen as a way to discrim- the idea of a new global initiative, the Nuclear Security Summit, inate between developed and developing countries, pledged to adopt to secure all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within more stringent borders and export control laws and to design better four years. The Nuclear Security Summit has met every two years transportation, accounting, consolidation, and storage practices for and operates on principles that are based on “Gift Basket Diplo- nuclear material. macy,” meaning only invited governments can participate in the Despite geopolitical crises such as the one unfolding in Ukraine summit and those governments are expected to bring to the summit and the increasingly tense territorial disputes in East Asia among national pledges and commitments of their respective countries to regional and great powers, global commitment and international ameliorate, enhance, and improve the enforcement and implemen- cooperation focused on combating and eliminating the threat tation of their national nuclear security regime. of nuclear terrorism have not been weakened. This development Three Nuclear Security Summits have been held so far, and may suggest that leaders of countries with otherwise conflicting the list of invitees has grown together with the importance and national priorities and strategic objectives acknowledge the need

6 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 the risk of nuclear terrorism from insider threats

and plutonium that exists at vulnerable locations. The adoption of more sophisticated monitoring devices and the deploy- ment of better equipped and trained armed guards have become the immediate strategy implemented to address the threat of nuclear terrorism. The recent Academy paper, A Worst Practices Guide to Insider Threats: Lessons from Past Mistakes, by Bunn and Sagan, argues that one major component missing in a long-term strategy to reduce the risks of nuclear terrorism is one that addresses “the insider threat.” Sagan and Bunn demonstrate how difficult it is to address hidden dangers that come from within nuclear facilities, from insiders who might steal critical material, assist terrorist groups, or engage in sabotage attacks. The authors write that the history of nuclear materials theft supports this concern about insider threats: “all of the cases of theft of nuclear materials where the circumstances of the theft are known were perpetrated either by insiders or with the help of insiders.” One major component missing in a long-term strategy to reduce the risks of nuclear terrorism is one that addresses “the insider threat.”

There have been a number of “best practices guides” issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (iaea) and the World Institute for Nuclear Security (wins) to address insider threats. To complement these recommendations, Bunn and Sagan’s “worst practices guide” identifies a series of common mistakes that organizations have made, drawing on episodes involving intelligence agencies, the professional military, secret service bodyguards for political leaders, security measures for banking and financial insti- to work collectively to prevent terrorist organizations from gaining tutions, and the gambling industry, among others. access to nuclear material. Some of the specific cases that Bunn and Sagan examine include Yet much remains to be done to address this danger. Most of the the assassination of Indian President Indira Gandhi by her two efforts to reduce the risks of nuclear terrorism focus on preventing Sikh bodyguards, the organizational failures that led to the first external attacks that could create a Chernobyl-like event or would Ford Hood shooting by U.S. Army Major Nidal Hasan, and the case enable a terrorist to steal fissile material to make a nuclear bomb. of Robert Hansen, who was found responsible for fifteen counts of Speculation that terrorist groups may orchestrate such an assault espionage while serving within the fbi. grew exponentially after the 9/11 attacks, with the continued U.S. The overarching message of the paper is clear: “when it comes entanglement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with ongoing acts of to protecting organizations from insider threats, do not assume, violence on targets in other parts of the globe, including Pakistan always assess – and assess and test as realistically as possible.” and the Middle East. Among the lessons learned that are discussed in the paper, This mindset, and the perception of the nature of the threat, three are particularly important. First, do not assume that serious has resulted in a widespread response that has focused on insider problems are not in your organization. According to Sagan strengthening and enhancing the physical protection of nuclear and Bunn, “Organizational leaders should never assume that their facilities and reducing the amount of highly enriched uranium personnel are so loyal that they will never be subject to ideologies,

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 7 projects and activities

shifting allegiances or personal incentives that could lead them to At a recent workshop held in Cambridge in May, thirty senior become insider threats.” officials from nuclear laboratories and international and military Second, do not assume that background checks will solve the organizations, as well as nuclear experts from academia and think insider problem: these programs are effective but they are not bul- tanks explored different dimensions of the insider threat problem, letproof. Measures to complement these strategies should be put in in contexts as different as nuclear plants, military operations, and place when these strategies fail. laboratories. The participants Third, do not assume that shared challenges in facing security rules are followed. The risk of nuclear terrorism is and overcoming complacency. Establishing clear policies is changing and growing more com- They discussed how the risk an indispensable element for of nuclear terrorism is chang- organizations to work effec- plex in an era of cyber-attacks and ing and growing more com- tively; an over-reliance on plex in an era of cyber-attacks rules, however, may weaken increasing competition between the and increasing competition the ability of an organiza- United States and rising powers. between the United States and tion to think strategically and rising powers. anticipate insider threats. In June, leaders of the gnf Further, not all employees may apply rules universally. Several Initiative traveled to Istanbul, Turkey, to participate in a capac- studies, in fact, show that when employees encounter rules that ity-building training workshop for journalists from the Middle “they consider senseless, they typically do not comply with them. East. Organized by the Academy, the Center for Non-Prolifera- This can contribute to a broader culture in which people follow tion Studies, and the Stanley Foundation, the workshop trained security rules only when they find it convenient.” Managers must twenty journalists from the Middle East on how to write in a more continue to provide incentives for employees to follow rules, but informed way about nuclear risks and threats in their region. they must also implement a regular search process that identifies In addition, the Academy hosted two events in cooperation and eliminates redundant or obsolete rules. with edam and the Global Relations Forum, two think tanks in The paper was distributed widely to key nuclear laboratories, Istanbul, at which leaders of the gnf Initiative met with policy- military organizations, international organizations, and to more makers, the media, and leading academics; they discussed chal- than 100 nuclear experts around the world currently involved in lenges that nuclear newcomers face when establishing a nuclear devising strategies and implementing policies to protect against energy program, including protecting their own nuclear facilities the peril of insider threats. Several nuclear laboratories are using from outside and inside threats. the paper as a training resource. The Academy’s work on insider threats, and on other nuclear The gnf project is continuing its work in this area. Four new related issues throughout the course of its gnf Initiative, is sup- papers that will identify the causes and drivers of insider threats ported by Carnegie Corporation of New York, The William and Flora in different sectors have been commissioned. These papers will be Hewlett Foundation, The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foun- published in an edited volume that will offer additional analysis dation, The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, The Flora Family Founda- and recommendations on how to make American and international tion, and The Kavli Foundation. More information about the Global nuclear installations safer. Nuclear Future project is available online at www.amacad.org/gnf. n

8 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014

The Academy Rolls Out Three New Research Tools

n June 19, 2014, the American Academy introduced a fully revised Humanities Indicators website (http:// O HumanitiesIndicators.org), a new report showing contraction across a number of funding streams for the field, and a new data forum designed to spur further dialogue about the state of the humanities.

The release of these new research tools coincides with the first anniversary of the publication of The Heart of the Matter, the Foundation Funding to Humanities Areas, 2012 report of the Commission on the Human- (Millions of Current Dollars) ities and Social Sciences, and marks the

Academy’s ongoing commitment to the Philosophy/Ethics, humanities. Art History, $9.97, 3% $9.71, 2% The Indicators website currently cov- Languages, $7.81, ers 76 topics and includes over 270 graphs Literature, $13.36, 3% 2% detailing the state of the humanities in Other, $19.98, 5% schools, higher education, the workforce, Museum Activities, $108.75, 26% research and funding support, and the life of History/Archeology, the nation. Information is updated regularly $23.19, 6% as new data become available.

The new funding report, The State of the Social Sciences, Humanities: Funding 2014, demonstrates the $28.92, 7% Total: $415.96 million contribution the Indicators make to our understanding of the field. The report shows

that financial support to the humanities Libraries/Archives, from an array of sources–federal, state, and $37.23, 9% Historical Activities, private–is tiny in comparison to other fields $80.42, 19% and remains below pre-recession levels. Humanities-Related Among the findings, the report notes that Arts, Culture, and Media, $38.17, 9% federal funding for programs targeted at the Multidisciplinary, humanities is 31 percent lower in 2014 than $38.44, 9% it had been in 2008. Similarly, funding from Source: The Foundation Center, 2014. Based on the Foundation Center’s FC 1000 data set. foundations to the humanities was 18 percent lower in 2012 than in 2007, according to preliminary data gathered from the Foun- dation Center. The Indicators project, chaired by experts discuss the data and offer context, statistical findings and accompanying fig- Norman M. Bradburn (norc; University perspective, and critiques for new findings. ures rather than descriptive narratives. To of Chicago), is an objective source of the The Data Forum reinforces an ongoing aid in the use of this evidence, the site also best available data on the humanities, so effort among project leaders to make the offers PowerPoint slides and pdfs that can the new funding report only describes the Indicators easier to use, assuring that jour- be easily incorporated into presentations numbers–inviting others to assess what nalists, researchers, and the general public or articles. these trends might mean for the field. To can quickly find answers to questions about While the revisions simplify the presenta- foster such conversations about the Indi- the humanities. tion of evidence for a general audience, crit- cators as well as about data generated by Some of the changes to the Indicators ical context about the information has been other Academy projects, the Academy website are cosmetic–such as offering a preserved in detailed notes “About the Data.” initiated The Data Forum (https://www fresh and streamlined design–but most of The Indicators were first published as a .amacad.org/dataforum), in which invited the revisions are structural, foregrounding prototype in 2009, after a group of Academy

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 9 projects and activities

Humanities Council Revenues, Per Capita, 2013

District of Columbia

Quintiles

$1.45 to $17.69 $0.83 to $1.44 $0.57 to $0.82 State Median Per Capita: $0.70 $0.40 to $0.56 National Per Capita: $0.81 $0 to $0.39

Source: State Federation of Humanities Councils, “2012 Income Survey Report,” revised 5-13-2013.

members acknowledged that a long-run- Several new studies and reports are forth- ning series of Science and Engineering coming from the Indicators project, includ- Indicators from the National Science Foun- ing results from a study of humanities dation had been driving much of the con- departments at four-year colleges and uni- versation about the needs of the scientific versities (available in September), findings community. on employment and salaries for humanities Like their more established counterpart majors, and an analysis of the revenues of in the sciences, the Humanities Indicators humanities non-profit organizations. have provided a starting point for an array The Academy gratefully acknowledges of discussions, such as last year’s debates the financial support of The Andrew W. about trends in the number of college Mellon Foundation, primary funder of majors in the humanities. the Humanities Indicators, as well as the The Humanities Report Card: 2013, which National Endowment for the Humanities. drew heavily on findings from the Indica- The Humanities Indicators website continues tors, has also enjoyed a wide audience. Over to develop and evolve. Please contact the project 10,000 copies have been distributed in print, staff (at [email protected]) with thousands of additional copies dissemi- with any questions or suggestions. n nated through the Web and social media.

10 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014

The American and British Academies Discuss the Future of the Humanities

n June 23–24, 2014, the American Academy and the British Academy held a joint conference in London that exam- Oined the state of humanities research and education in an international context. The conference concluded a year in which both academies published major reports on the humanities and social sciences: the American Academy’s Heart of the Matter report and the British Academy’s Prospering Wisely white paper.

The conference, entitled “Broadening the Debate: How the Humanities and Social Sciences can help us address global challenges,” was the first official collaboration between the two academies in a century. Diane P. Wood–Chief Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, Chair of the Academy Council, and member of the Academy’s Commission on the Humanities and Social Sciences–led a U.S. delegation that included Commis- sion members Karl W. Eikenberry, former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General; Hunter Rawlings, President of the Association of American Universities; and Pauline Yu, member of the Academy Council and President of the American Council of Learned Societies. The American delegation also included representatives of the National Endowment for the Humanities, the National Humanities Alliance, the American Council on Teaching Foreign Languages, and the American Coun- cils for International Education, among others. Participants from the British Academy included Nicholas Stern (Lord Stern of Brentford), President of the British Academy; Dame Helen Wallace of the London School of Economics and Political Science; Jonathan Bate, Provost of Worcester College, Oxford; and Nigel Vincent of the University of Manchester. In all, over two hundred Fellows of both academies attended the two-day conference. In a preliminary statement, Don Randel, Chair of the Academy Board, said, “Independently, our academies have been working to Hunter Rawlings (Association of American Universities), Pauline Yu inspire greater support for the humanities and social sciences as (American Council of Learned Societies), Robin Jackson (British Acad- disciplines vital to our respective nations. This joint conference emy), Diane P. Wood (United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh gives us an opportunity to explore these topics together and, for Circuit), Karl W. Eikenberry (Stanford University, former U.S. Ambas- the first time, to speak with a unified voice about the importance of sador to Afghanistan, U.S. Army Lieutenant General, ret.), and Dame humanistic pursuits to a well-functioning society.” Helen Wallace (British Academy) The first day of the conference featured two panel discussions before an invited audience that included scholars, policy-makers, and During the second panel, “Promoting Opportunity through Edu- teachers. The first panel addressed “Why a Coordinated Approach to cation,” Rawlings offered an impassioned plea for new approaches the Humanities, Social Sciences, and Natural Sciences Matter.” Yu to teaching, stressing the need for active student engagement that asserted that “the humanities and sciences are necessarily comple- draws on the tradition of philosophical and academic dialogue mentary” since there are “a range of human problems that cannot founded by Plato in the 4th century bce. be defined as strictly scientific,” and she stressed the importance of The focus of the second day of the conference was a roundtable a broad liberal arts education at the undergraduate level to create a discussion cosponsored by the British Academy and The Guardian pipeline of scholars prepared to address future challenges. as part of their ongoing collaboration on “The Case for Language

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 11 projects and activities

Soft power is about culture, it’s about values, and it’s about smart, nuanced foreign policy. . . . And I would argue that its strength lies in the arts, the humanities and the social sciences.

Learning.” Discussants, including the entire American delegation, addressed the importance of language learning in national and international policy as well as best practices in language education. Proceedings of the roundtable, moderated by Guardian columnist Will Hutton, were published in an online edition of the newspaper on July 7. The article, entitled “Lack of languages stifles Brits and Americans,” captures many of the themes of the two-day conference and is, in effect, the first product of collaboration between the two academies. Transcripts of the discussion will inform a British Academy white paper that will be published in early 2015. Several language initiatives in the United States will also draw on the proceedings as inspiration for continuing efforts, including the Language Enter- prise Initiative. The conference concluded with a public event, “Global Power, Influence, and Perception in the 21st Century,” featuring Eiken- berry; Sir Adam Roberts, former President of the British Acad- emy and a Foreign Honorary Member of the American Academy; and Sir Martin Davidson, Chief Executive of the British Coun- cil. The speakers discussed the importance of the humanities and social sciences to “soft power,” the cultural and persuasive influence of nations like the United States and the United Kingdom. “Soft power is about culture, it’s about values, and it’s about smart, nuanced foreign policy,” Eikenberry said. “And I would argue that its strength lies in the arts, the humanities and the social sciences.” Bridget Kendall, diplomatic correspondent for the bbc, moderated the conversation. Video of the events is available at www.humanitiescommission.org. Following the conference, leaders of the British Academy and American Academy discussed future collaborations, including more frequent correspondence on issues of mutual concern, scholar exchanges, and the possibility of biannual joint conferences. Although the two academies share a concern for the strength and vitality of intellectual life in their respective nations, contact between them has been minimal: prior to the June conference, the last recorded contact between the two academies was a publication exchange in 1914. n

12 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014

Around the Country New York City

Chair of the Board Don M. Randel and President-Designate Jonathan F. Fanton welcomed over a hundred Fellows and guests to a reception in New York City on May 19, 2014.

Henry Arnhold (Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder Holdings, Inc.), Angelica Zander Rudenstine (Princeton, New Jersey; New York, New York), and Jonathan Fanton (American Academy)

Don M. Randel (New York, New York), Harvey Dale (New York University School of Law), and Thomas Bender (New York University)

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 13 projects and activities

Sara Lee Schupf (New York, New York), Axel Schupf (H. A. Schupf Co., Daniel Rose (Rose Associates, Inc.) and Joanna Semel LLC), and Carl Pforzheimer (Carl H. Pforzheimer and Co., LLC; CHIPCO Rose (New York, New York) Asset Management, LLC)

Barbara Tversky (Columbia University), Nannerl Keohane (Princeton Neta Bahcall (Princeton University), University) and Glenn Hutchins and Walter Cahn (Yale University) (Silver Lake)

Peter Palese (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai) Maxwell Hearn (Metropolitan Museum of Art), Vera Michaels (New and John Biggs (TIAA-CREF) York University), and Robert Dijkgraaf (Institute for Advanced Study)

14 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 around the country

Carol Mancusi-Ungaro (Harvard Art Museum; Whitney Museum Richard Gardner (Columbia Law School) and Carol Gluck of American Art) and Neil Rudenstine (ARTstor) (Columbia University)

Jonathan Cole (Columbia University) and Victor Navasky (The Nation; Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism)

Frances Degan Horowitz (City University of New York, The Graduate Center), Rosemary Stevens (Cornell University, Weill Cornell Medical College), and Harriet Zuckerman (Andrew W. Mellon Foundation)

Gustave Hauser (Hauser Communications, Inc.), Rita Hauser (The Helene Kaplan (Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom Hauser Foundation), and Debra La Morte (New York University) LLP & Affiliates) andJoel Conarroe (New York, New York)

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 15 projects and activities

Dædalus Examines “The Invention of Courts”

hat challenges confront U.S. courts as democratic institutions in the twenty-first century? And what does the Wchanging role of courts teach us about our conceptions of justice? The Summer 2014 issue of Dædalus explores the complex shifts occurring in U.S. courts and the implications for the citizens that rely on them. “The Invention of Courts” is guest-edited by Academy Fellows Linda Greenhouse, the Joseph Goldstein Lecturer in Law at Yale Law School and former Supreme Court reporter for The New York Times, and Judith Resnik, the Arthur Liman Professor of Law at Yale Law School.

Linda Greenhouse introduces the volume’s diverse essays by not- ing that “[t]o write about courts is to write about political theory, Summer 2014 Dædalus about lawyering, about fiscal priorities, and about social welfare, “The Invention of Courts” as well as about courts’ dependence on and independence from the body politic.” Many of the essays remind us that the courts do not Linda Greenhouse (Yale Law School), Introduction: The Inven- stand on their own as static institutions; rather, they were and con- tion of Courts tinue to be invented–a process informed by changing legislative, Judith Resnik (Yale Law School), Reinventing Courts as Dem- economic, political, and cultural landscapes. ocratic Institutions In her essay, Judith Resnik traces the shifts in democratic theory Jonathan Lippman (New York Court of Appeals), State and the role of social movements that pressed courts to embrace the Courts: Enabling Access view that all persons are equal rights holders, thereby transforming courts into democratic venues. Given the mandate to provide “open Robert A. Katzmann (United States Court of Appeals for the courts,” trial-level exchanges became opportunities for debates Second Circuit), When Legal Representation is Deficient: The about what the shape of legal rules should be. Resnik notes, however, Challenge of Immigration Cases for the Courts that in more recent decades, disputants are increasingly pressured or Carol Steiker (Harvard Law School), Gideon’s Problematic Promises required to resolve disputes in private settings that do not provide Jonathan Simon (University of California, Berkeley), Uncommon the opportunity for public oversight of either processes or outcomes. Law: America’s Excessive Criminal Law & Our Common-Law Origins Democracy has not only changed courts; it challenges them pro- Deborah R. Hensler (Stanford Law School), Justice for the foundly. Resnik’s essay is one of several expressing the concern that Masses? Aggregate Litigation & Its Alternatives the current system faces a host of issues, including deficits in court funding, the disappearance of trials, and the failure to translate into Gillian K. Hadfield (University of Southern California), practice Gideon vs. Wainwright’s mandate of a constitutional right to Innovating to Improve Access: Changing the Way Courts Regulate adequate counsel for all indigent criminal litigants. Legal Markets Among the issue’s fifteen essays,Jonathan Lippman, Chief Michael J. Graetz (Columbia Law School; Yale Law School), Judge of the State of New York and Chief Judge of the Court of Trusting the Courts: Redressing the State Court Funding Crisis Appeals, examines the enormity of the unmet needs of New York- Frederick Schauer (University of Virginia), Our Information- ers who are unable to afford a lawyer, and introduces his and his ally Disabled Courts task force’s efforts to address the crisis. Robert Katzmann, Chief Marc Galanter (University of Wisconsin, Madison) and Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, Angela M. Frozena (non-practicing attorney), A Grin with- writes about the approaches he and his colleagues have explored to out a Cat: The Continuing Decline and Displacement of Trials in expand access to justice for undocumented immigrants, who often American Courts face deportation while detained and without the assistance of counsel. Deborah R. Hensler (Stanford Law School) discusses class Stephen C. Yeazell (University of California, Los Angeles actions and other ways of litigating mass harms and their implica- School of Law), Courting Ignorance: Why We Know So Little tions for both individual plaintiffs and defendants. Finally, the idea About Our Most Important Courts of the “invention of courts” is poignantly given life in an essay by Susan S. Silbey (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Kate O’Regan, who served as a Judge of the Constitutional Court of The Courts in American Public Culture South Africa from its inception in 1994 through 2009. Jamal Greene (Columbia Law School), (Anti)Canonizing Courts Print and Kindle copies of the new issue can be ordered at: Kate O’Regan (formerly, Constitutional Court of South https://www.amacad.org/publications/daedalus. n Africa), Justice & Memory: South Africa’s Constitutional Court

16 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 presentations

Growing Pains in a Rising China

n April 17, 2014, Elizabeth J. Perry (Henry Rosovsky Professor of Government at Harvard University and Direc- tor of the Harvard-Yenching Institute), Barry Naughton (Sokwanlok Chair of Chinese International Affairs O and Professor of Chinese Economy at the University of California, San Diego), Ching Kwan Lee (Professor of Sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles), and Benjamin L. Liebman (Robert L. Lieff Professor of Law and Director of the Center for Chinese Legal Studies at Columbia Law School) participated in a conversation on the challenges that face China after thirty-five years of reform efforts. The program, which served as the Academy’s 2007th Stated Meet- ing, included a welcome from Don M. Randel (Chair of the Board of the American Academy). The following is an edited transcript of the presentations.

The affluence of the new urban middle and upper classes, which are flush with the proceeds from lucrative real estate deals, is offset by the indigence of millions of rural dwellers, as well as the millions of migrants who labor in the midst of urban affluence.

understood as growing pains of a body poli- record of achievement is decidedly uneven. tic that is still in the process of changing and It is uneven across geographic regions, across maturing, rather than as the death pangs of social strata, and across the different policy a communist dinosaur destined to immi- sectors that we have examined. nent extinction. The major cities of China boast gleam- The issue’s contributors–an interdisci- ing infrastructure and urban amenities that plinary group of social scientists, including equal, or in some cases surpass those to be political scientists, economists, sociologists, found in the advanced industrial world, anthropologists, and historians–explore the but much of the rural interior remains Elizabeth J. Perry challenges that face China after thirty-five mired in grinding poverty. The contrast Elizabeth J. Perry is Henry Rosovsky Professor of years of reform efforts. The collection of between these two very different Chinas is Government at Harvard University and Direc- essays attempts to take stock of China’s the theme of many of the fifteen essays in tor of the Harvard-Yenching Institute. She was challenges on a wide range of issues, includ- the issue of Dædalus. The affluence of the elected a Fellow of the American Academy in ing demography, health care, welfare, labor, new urban middle and upper classes, which the effects of the Internet, contemporary are flush with the proceeds from lucrative 2002 and is the guest editor of the recent Dæda- religious diversity, higher education, local real estate deals, is offset by the indigence lus issue on “Growing Pains in a Rising China.” governance, globalization, and environmen- of millions of rural dwellers, as well as the tal pollution, as well as the economy, legal millions of migrants who labor in the midst he title of the Spring 2014 issue of reform, and social protest. of urban affluence. And although the Chi- TDædalus–“Growing Pains in a Rising Evaluating China’s performance on nese state can take a good deal of credit, at China”–was chosen to underscore the any of these fronts is not an easy task. The least through the 1990s, for spearheading tremendous challenges and contradictions head-spinning pace of change in China a series of bold economic measures that that China currently faces on so many threatens to render any of our academic have replenished central coffers and have fronts, while at the same time suggesting assessments quickly obsolete. Further, the enriched many citizens, post-Mao achieve- that these tensions may perhaps be better People’s Republic of China’s (prc) post-Mao ments in the realm of social welfare, not to

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 17 presentations

mention political and legal reform, have to The contributors to this issue of Dædalus date been a good deal less impressive. were invited to explore ways in which the Despite its many very serious problems, Chinese state is addressing actual policy however, the post-Mao Chinese state has concerns, from protest to public health. survived, and indeed, by many measures, Although these problems may be espe- thrived. Moreover, the historical origins cially pronounced and politically sensitive of the prc suggest that its future may not in China–in light of China’s exceptional be well predicted by the fates of the former size and its rapid economic growth under a Soviet Union and East European commu- basically unreformed Leninist political sys- nist regimes. The prc, like the four other tem–these are also problems that are com- remaining communist regimes, ascended to mon to virtually all countries. The issue’s power via an extended rural revolution that authors were encouraged to assess the Chi- endowed the state and its ruling Communist nese state’s record in comparative context, Party with strong nationalist credentials. highlighting what is unique or unusual, This stands in contrast to the Communist for better or worse, in the prc’s efforts to Party of the Soviet Union, which gained resolve these universal dilemmas. control through a relatively short and quite Thinking comparatively about global narrowly based urban revolution; and the dilemmas is of more than academic inter- difference from Eastern Europe, where est. We live today in a fragile and yet highly communist regimes were generally imposed interdependent world that is troubled by by Soviet military might at the end of the a range of transnational challenges, from Second World War, is even sharper. pandemics and climate change to finan-

We would be foolhardy to disregard or discount China’s efforts to resolve its serious problems simply because we predict that its political system is someday destined to disappear.

Unlike most of the formerly communist cial meltdowns and terrorism. Institutions world, the prc and its fellow surviving com- of governance as different as the Chinese munist states attained power in the course Communist Politburo and the U.S. Con- of prolonged and pervasive peasant mobi- gress find themselves severely tested, both lization. That rich revolutionary history ideologically and operationally, in trying to bequeathed valuable practical experience address these issues. We would be foolhardy in social organization and control, while to disregard or discount China’s efforts to bestowing important political advantages resolve its serious problems simply because that so far have withstood the test of time. we predict that its political system is some- This is certainly not to imply that these day destined to disappear. regimes are destined to last forever–far from it–but whatever the lifespan of the prc turns out to be, its remarkable rise and resilience to date suggest that we should take quite seriously its efforts to resolve its current challenges.

18 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 growing pains in a rising china

damental geographic and demographic ects, such as its high-speed rail network. challenges that some of the other forerun- The reductionist answer is that this high ners did not face–but in terms of the out- state investment has driven China’s rapid come, China has also grown faster than any economic growth. other economy in the history of the world. When we look at China from a some- So, although the overall contours are simi- what broader and more institutional lar, there are characteristics of the Chinese framework, we can see a ten-year period achievement that we still need to explain. in which the Chinese administration of

A characteristic of China’s economic miracle that is both distinctive to China and critical to the world going forward is that China has mobilized a larger share of its total economic output for investment than any other economy in recorded history.

Barry Naughton Unfortunately, we cannot identify the General Secretary Hu Jintao and Premier Barry Naughton is the Sokwanlok Chair of exact source of China’s superb economic Wen Jiabao was able to use the success of Chinese International Affairs and Professor performance. Is it China’s huge and impres- the economic development program and of Chinese Economy at the University of Cali- sive domestic market? Is it the sudden the mobilization of economic resources fornia, San Diego. His essay, “China’s Econ- impact of new technologies like cell phones? to further the consolidation and the sta- Is it a statistical illusion, created by an under- bilization of their system. In other words, omy: Complacency, Crisis & the Challenge of statement of gross domestic product in the the China that we have grown accustomed Reform,” appears in the recent issue of Dædalus late 1970s? All these explanations are possi- to over the last ten years is a China that on “Growing Pains in a Rising China.” ble, but overshadowing each is a characteris- increasingly has resources to build what tic of China’s economic miracle that is both it wants to build, to invest in the stabili- want to begin the discussion about what distinctive to China and critical to the world zation of party-state institutions, to solve I is unique or distinctive about China by going forward: China has mobilized a larger some of its most critical social problems, first exploring what is not unique or dis- share of its total economic output for invest- and, in general, to consolidate the basis of tinctive. One thing we see very clearly, and ment than any other economy in recorded Communist Party rule. which colors our understanding of China’s history. The great paradox of this period has economy, is that China is just now finishing For the last five years, China has spent been that just as the outside world has fully a period of miraculous growth that essen- about 48 percent of its gross domestic prod- absorbed China’s tremendous economic tially echoes what other successful East uct on new fixed capital; that is three times success, the trajectory within China has Asian economies have done over the last the rate that the United States spends. So changed course. The kinds of policies that forty or fifty years. In its basic contours, even though China is the second-largest we think of as being foundational for the China’s economic miracle is a reproduction economy in the world, substantially smaller creation of China’s success have become of those of other forerunner economies. than the United States, its investment econ- less prominent in state policy over the last That is not to diminish the Chinese omy is already as large as, and even slightly ten years. Speaking as an economist, I am achievement, but simply to put it into larger than, that of the United States. That speaking primarily of disruptive, mar- context. When we compare the Chinese means China has an extraordinary abil- ket-oriented economic reforms–the kinds economic miracle period to that of other ity not only to build fundamental physical of reform that were so distinctive during the forerunner economies, what we discover infrastructure, such as housing, roads, and administration of Premier Zhu Rongji in the is that not only is China bigger–with fun- factories, but also to develop advanced proj- 1990s and early 2000s.

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As we have moved deeper into the twenty- reform, but rather that the administration role of government in the economy. So far, first century, we have found that although has seemed to show a willingness to funda- China’s government has not shown many China’s successes are impressive, its com- mentally disrupt the kind of economic and signs of moving toward this gentler role. mitment to economic reform–especially political stability bargain that had seemed As we watch this intersection of slowing market-oriented economic reform that to be so firmly ensconced by the late years growth, changing policy, and renewed fosters an open-entry, open-access, level of the Hu–Wen administration. The new reform, the great question for economists playing field and competitive approach to administration of General Secretary Xi is what will happen first and what kinds of economic decision-making–has become Jinping has in the last six or seven months external events will drive this unpredict- less meaningful. There has even been some introduced an economic reform program able complex of policies, reactions, and regression. And as a result of this slowdown that is bold, that is extremely broad, and economic changes. in reform-oriented economic policy-making, that challenges the achievements of the pre- there has been an increasing sense of hes- vious administration, announcing clearly: itation, perhaps even a kind of credibility “We need to do more.” crisis, among the people of China. And to a But what I find especially interesting is certain extent, this has affected analysts of that beyond setting the outlines of a reform China who look at China from the outside. program that may or may not make sense That is, we certainly think of China as being from a pure economic institutional basis, successful, but when we ask whether it has Xi Jinping has also shown a willingness to the political will and the institutional foun- stir things up: to attack corruption, make dation to continue the reform process–not life difficult for political leaders, and open even in the sense of political reforms such up a number of issues that seemed to have as democratization or the separation of been relatively settled during the last sev-

Beyond setting the outlines of a reform program that may or may not make sense from a pure economic institutional basis, Xi Jinping has also shown a willingness to stir things up: to attack corruption, make life difficult for political leaders, and open up a number of issues that seemed to have been relatively settled during the last several years. powers, but only in the very restricted sense eral years. We know that the growth rate of economic reforms–we find increasing has to fall, and we know that it is already doubt and hesitation about the ability and falling. What we do not know is whether willingness of the Chinese Communist policy-makers can adapt a model that was party-state to do so. very successful during the miracle growth That doubt spread steadily through the period into a different kind of model suited most recent administration of Hu Jintao and for a new kind of economy. Wen Jiabao. In some ways, the big surprise In predecessor economies, the adapta- in the last few years has been not just that a tion of the new model has always been dif- new administration has come in and talked ficult, but it has also always ultimately led about the need to reinvigorate economic to what we might think of as a lighter-touch

20 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 growing pains in a rising china

What is distinctive about the Chinese I found that cadre officials combine this response to protest is that it combines the market logic with a mass line logic: they use of a market logic of governance with do a tremendous amount of work building a mass line logic of governance. What we relationships with the “masses” (these pro- have found through our research in major testors). It is an extremely labor-intensive, cities in China, especially since the Beijing personal kind of government-subject inter- Olympics in 2008, is that the government action, with grassroots officials actually tries to buy stability: literally, to purchase engaging in long, protracted discussions it by bargaining with protestors and paying with the protestors. They do so to come to them with cash or other kinds of material know them, to learn their personalities, and benefits or services. And that explains why to use that knowledge to manipulate their the Financial Times reports that today, Chi- emotions. Through this intimate relation- na’s budget for domestic security exceeds ship, officials hope to transform protestors’ that for external security. And the reason consciousness and redefine what rights they for this kind of expansion in the expendi- actually believe they have. And this effort ture for domestic security is that officials goes beyond the laws as they appear in the actually spend money to pacify protestors, law book: officials explain to protestors that who may bargain on the spot, and some- beyond the letter of the law, there are prac- Ching Kwan Lee times in the courtroom, over the price of tical rights you can enjoy if you play by the Ching Kwan Lee is Professor of Sociology at their appeasement. rules. Officials form friendships with pro- the University of California, Los Angeles. Her essay, “State & Social Protest,” appears in the What is distinctive about the Chinese response to recent issue of Dædalus on “Growing Pains in a Rising China.” protest is that it combines the use of a market logic of governance with a mass line logic of governance. very year, China has to deal with more . . . The government tries to buy stability by bargain- E than one hundred thousand incidents of mass disturbance or protests. But how ing with protestors and paying them with cash or do they do it? How do they maintain stability in the face of so many protests erupting other kinds of material benefits or services. around the country every day? I would like to be clear from the start Officials’ use of the market is one way testors, sometimes bribing them or recruit- that the kind of protest I am talking about of pacifying protestors. But if you dish out ing them as future informants; but officials mostly involves violations of labor rights, cash every time a protest rises to the surface, also intimidate their targets, using force or land rights, and property rights, as well as, you only reinforce the unwanted behavior, the threat of force to gain compliance. more recently, issues relating to pollution and the protestors will return, bargaining This process of transforming individu- and health problems. The protestors are not for increasingly more. Thus, if you seek als by relating to them as people is an old political dissidents, and most of them do not sustained harmony, you cannot just give Maoist method of “doing mass work,” as use violence. Nor are these protestors part cash to protestors and send them on their officials call it. And it is this combination of the ethnic or religious uprisings that are way home; a supplementary approach is of mass line and market logic that makes sometimes reported on in the international needed. And through my ethnographic buying stability a very effective means of media. Within China, the vast majority of research looking into these processes, I was pacifying protest and maintaining social protests have to do with socioeconomic astonished to see how buying stability actu- order. Moreover, we found that through this grievances. So, how does the Chinese gov- ally involves personal and time-consuming bargaining process, Chinese people experi- ernment handle these kinds of protests? “mass work.” ence Chinese authoritarianism as a system

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 21 presentations

Grassroots officials actually engage in long, protracted discussions with the protestors. They do so to come to know them, to learn their personalities, and to use that knowledge to manipulate their emotions. that actually allows for room to maneuver. more on society, ngos, communities, and It is an authoritarian system, but the lived public opinion. For example, the party-state experience of the regime by ordinary Chi- may combine market and mass line logic by nese people is not necessarily one of coer- purchasing services from ngos. The par- cion. There is some room to play in what is a ty-state may throw a lifeline to struggling non–zero sum game, and there are rewards ngos, allowing them to prosper and pro- for those who play well. liferate, by purchasing services provided And through this process, grassroots by the ngos. And as contractors of the par- officials also gain something: they gain the ty-state, ngos’ agendas are thereby shaped claims or the excuse to increase their depart- by the government’s interests and rulings mental budget. Officials prefer to maintain on what is permissible. In this way, the a certain level of instability because only party-state can co-opt branches of society when there are protests can they go upstairs through market mechanisms. and request a bigger budget or justify a promotion. In this way, officials advance their careers with the assistance of protestors. Through the bargaining process, we observed the frontline of the authoritarian state machinery, where both parties enter into a mutually beneficial alliance that ultimately sustains this continuous low-level instability. This unique Chinese approach is sup- ported by two distinct capacities of the Chi- nese state. The first is a fiscal capacity: the strong budgetary position of the state that enables purchasing stability with cash. The second capacity is what sociologist Michael Mann has called “infrastructural capacity”: the state’s ability to reach out to every Chi- nese city, neighborhood, and village to do this kind of labor-intensive mass line work. Looking ahead, the mass line and the market are likely to remain salient methods of maintaining stability, though perhaps in new ways. The Third Plenum Resolution suggests that social governance will rely

22 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 growing pains in a rising china

China’s new administration, like its predecessors, continues to be ambiguous with regard to whether law should serve a primary role in governing a society undergoing rapid change.

tration, like its predecessors, continues to in proposals to create specialized or regional be ambiguous with regard to whether law courts. The Supreme People’s Court has also should serve a primary role in governing a announced a major push to improve trans- society undergoing rapid change. parency, although the goals of this seem I will sketch four brief points about the aimed as much at improving oversight of current state of legal reform in China that I judges as at strengthening access to infor- hope will provide a basis for discussion. mation for individuals. First, despite much discussion in the The past few years have also shown that Western media claiming that China is no when it comes to determining which legal longer committed to legal reform, signifi- reforms do and do not get passed or imple- cant reform is possible within the Chinese mented, personal and institutional politics Benjamin L. Liebman legal system, albeit in piecemeal and incon- can often be as important as central Com- Benjamin L. Liebman is the Robert L. Lieff Pro- sistent fashion, and sometimes with unin- munist Party policy. It is not surprising, for fessor of Law and Director of the Center for Chi- tended consequences. We have seen this example, that the Supreme People’s Court nese Legal Studies at Columbia Law School. His in the past couple of years, in the abolition has emerged in recent months as a major essay, “Legal Reform: China’s Law-Stability of the reeducation through labor deten- proponent of reform. Of course, the courts tion system–which previously allowed the stand to gain status through any potential Paradox,” appears in the recent issue of Dæda- police to detain people for up to three years reforms. It is likewise not surprising that lus on “Growing Pains in a Rising China.” with no legal procedures–and in important the police and the procuratorates (which reforms to the criminal procedure law. serve both prosecutorial and general over- he Chinese party-state devoted enor- But the implementation of reforms sight roles in the Chinese system) are far T mous resources to constructing a legal remains inconsistent and uneven. For less excited about reforms that might well system during the first two decades of example, the criminal procedure law has reduce their influence. reform, with many impressive successes. new provisions that make it much easier Second, legal reforms are neither designed Nevertheless, it has been reluctant to allow for criminal defense lawyers to get access nor likely to transform the Chinese political the legal system to play a primary role in to their clients. Surprisingly, these actually system, although there are many in China resolving tensions in Chinese society, or seem to have been implemented quite well who would like to see this happen. Legal indeed, even in many cases involving rou- so far. At the local level lawyers are getting reforms are also not generally focused on tine disputes. The party-state’s reluctance access to their clients. But new provisions advancing individual rights, although at to rely on the legal system it built to resolve requiring that witnesses actually show up times Chinese legal reforms do have this the most pressing social and economic in court are not being implemented. And effect. Legal reforms are back in favor right issues facing China today is what I refer to although the reeducation through labor now precisely because they serve the party- as China’s law-stability paradox. system has been abolished, local officials in state’s interest in asserting control, curbing This paradox has continued to be mani- some areas of China are proving themselves abuses, addressing specific problems in Chi- fest over the past year as China’s new leader- remarkably innovative in their ability to nese society, and perhaps in advancing eco- ship has initiated important legal reforms at construct new forms of arbitrary detention. nomic reform–which were also the goals the same time that it has ramped up the use We also see the potential for further of legal reform throughout the eighties and of extralegal mechanisms to quell dissent reform in discussions about how judges are nineties. The Chinese party-state continues and prevent unrest. China’s new adminis- appointed and how courts are funded, and to embrace law as a tool for advancing par-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 23 presentations

ticular policy goals. Law may help make gov- system today that results from this grow- not following Western models. For exam- ernment function more effectively, but it is ing sense of inequality. This is at least par- ple, in Henan Province in recent years the not fundamentally designed to constrain the tially distinct from frustration or distrust courts have enthusiastically sought to use party-state itself. resulting from political non-accountability, populism and popular support both to One trend we have seen in the past year or although political and economic elites are make the legal system more accessible to two is a much clearer delineation of the lim- closely intertwined in China. ordinary people and as a base for resisting its of reform coming from the center, man- Fourth and finally, what is the capacity of external pressure on the courts. The use of ifest in the ongoing crackdown on activist the legal system to address the tensions and populism as a political tool is not new, but lawyers and tightening control over legal challenges I have outlined? The joke mak- the use of populism as a strategy for increas- academics. Such moves, although deplor- ing the rounds in Beijing last week was that ing the authority and perhaps the autonomy able and in most cases illegal under Chi- the Chinese Communist Party is finished if of legal institutions is a new development. nese law, are not necessarily in tension with it does not reform, but it is also finished if Whether such reforms can succeed and renewed commitment to legal reform. That it does reform, since it would destroy itself spread throughout China may go a long way is, I don’t think it is right to read the ongo- in the process. This may be overstated, but toward telling us whether legal institutions ing crackdown on legal activists in China as such comments do give a sense of the chal- and the legal system as a whole will con- a sign that China is not serious about legal lenge. Of course, the legal system is in some tinue to play secondary roles in governing reform. China’s new leadership appears to be sending a message that reform is possible, but that clear lines need to be drawn The Chinese party-state continues to embrace law between what is and is not permissible. as a tool for advancing particular policy goals. Third, many of the problems that continue to plague the legal system reflect broader problems in the Chinese politi- ways only a minor player in the larger ques- Chinese society–or will come to assume cal system, including corruption, political tions playing out regarding reform and the more important roles, from the perspective interference, and weak formal institutions. capacity to adapt. For all the recent focus both of the party-state and of ordinary peo- Some of the problems also have deep his- on reforms in the courts, for example, it is ple. Such reforms may also provide a win- torical roots, most notably the tendency of important to remember that the president dow into broader trends in governance in officials to focus on results and responsive- of China’s Supreme People’s Court has China: in particular, whether populism can ness at the expense of legal procedures and never ranked among the top fifty officials in be harnessed not only as a mechanism for rules. The Chinese party-state continues China. This is unlikely to change any time sustaining regime legitimacy, but also for to base its legitimacy in significant part on soon. So formally, in the constitution, in pushing forward with new, and many would responsiveness, not adherence to law or practice, and also in the party structure, the say much needed, reforms. n procedures. legal system plays a secondary role. Yet some problems are also the product The most significant developments now © 2014 by Elizabeth J. Perry, Barry Naughton, of reform. We see this most notably in the taking place in the Chinese legal system Ching Kwan Lee, and Benjamin L. Liebman, growing importance of wealth as a determi- are not those that appear to make the Chi- respectively nant of outcomes in civil and criminal cases, nese legal system look more like our own– and what appears to be a growing sense that reforms such as the creation of regional the legal system serves the interests of the courts or specialized intellectual property To view or listen to the presentations, visit https://www.amacad.org/ economically powerful. Of course, this is or environmental courts, as well as making growingpains. not a criticism that is unique to the Chinese individual judges, not their court superiors legal system. or court leaders, responsible for the deci- Lack of trust in the legal system reflects sions they issue. Likewise, the most import- lack of trust in Chinese society, and in for- ant reforms are not those coming from the mal institutions more generally. But there Supreme People’s Court in Beijing. Rather, is a distinct strand of distrust in the legal they are reforms working from the inside,

24 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014

At Berkeley, a new documentary by Frederick Wiseman

n March 12, 2014, the Academy hosted a program at its 2006th Stated Meeting about “At Berkeley,” a new documentary by Frederick Wiseman. The program included screened selections from the film, followed by a panel O discussion with Frederick Wiseman (filmmaker),Robert J. Birgeneau (Chancellor Emeritus and Silverman Professor of Physics, Materials Science, and Engineering and Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley), George W. Breslauer (Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost, Emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley), and Mark S. Schlissel (Provost of Brown University and President-Elect of the University of Michigan). Lawrence S. Bacow (President Emeritus of Tufts University and President-in-Residence in the Higher Education Program at the Harvard Graduate School of Education) moderated the discussion.

Lawrence S. Bacow have the privilege of moderating the Frederick Wiseman I discussion this evening with Frederick Lawrence S. Bacow is President Emeritus of Wiseman, our filmmaker, and with three Frederick Wiseman is an independent film- Tufts University. He is currently serving as individuals who were at Berkeley during maker. He was elected a Fellow of the American President-in-Residence in the Higher Education the filming: Robert Birgeneau, George Bres Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1991. Program at the Harvard Graduate School of lauer, and Mark Schlissel. I will start the dis- Education. He was elected a Fellow of the Amer- cussion with a question for Fred: Why did had been doing a series on education, ican Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2003. you decide to focus on higher education? I and I wanted to focus on public universities. uc Berkeley is a great public university, and much to my surprise, I received permission to do the film there.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 25 presentations

Lawrence Bacow Fred’s proposal with George Breslauer, provost of the university, who was a little more Did you go to Bob Birgeneau, who was then skeptical than I was. (I will let George talk Chancellor of the university, or did you go to about that later.) somebody else? Subsequently, I called the people in our journalism and film departments, asking Frederick Wiseman them what they thought. Fred is such a hero to people in film studies and filmmaking, so I went to Bob; you always go to the top. their response was incredibly positive. They convinced us to meet with Fred in person to Lawrence Bacow explore the possibility further. We invited Fred to campus to begin hav- Bob, I am curious who you had to talk to ing a conversation. One of the first observa- before you were willing to commit to this tions that he made was that Harvard, mit, project, and what you thought the risks and Berkeley appear in more than a hundred were in letting someone come in and shoot Hollywood films, includingLove Story (Har- 250 hours of film on your campus. How did vard), Basic Instinct and The Graduate (Berke- you get other people to agree to participate? ley), and Good Will Hunting (mit). This gives Robert J. Birgeneau you a taste of how universities are typically Robert J. Birgeneau is Chancellor Emeritus portrayed in movies. Fred said that by con- and Silverman Professor of Physics, Materials trast he wanted to make a film showing how Science, and Engineering and Public Policy of universities, which are very complex insti- the University of California, Berkeley. He was tutions, actually run. I thought that this was a fascinating idea. elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Obviously, there were some risks, but we Arts and Sciences in 1987. decided that these were risks worth taking. In addition, Fred was very persuasive; redrick first contacted Candace Slater, among other things, he convinced us that he Fthe English professor who is speaking was sincere. in the very first vignette that we saw earlier. Candace had been head of our Townsend Humanities Center when Fred visited Berkeley for a week in the mid-1990s. She sent me an email saying that Fred Wiseman was interested in making a film Lawrence Bacow about Berkeley. Anyone who has lived in Massachusetts for any length of time, as I My guess, George, is that you and Bob could have, knows of Fred because of his filmTit - get together and decide this was a good idea, icut Follies, which helped transform mental but maybe not everyone else on campus health care in the state of Massachusetts. would follow your lead. What was the pro- Berkeley is a place where we like to believe cess like in persuading faculty members and that we live on the edge, so if Berkeley’s not students to allow Fred into their classrooms? willing to consider this kind of project, then probably no other institution in the country would. I thought that at the minimum it was a very interesting idea. I initially discussed

26 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 “at berkeley”

Lawrence Bacow

Did you get anyone to sign a release?

George Breslauer

No. We did not get major blowback, but sometimes Fred was closed out, or he would get frustrated that enough doors were not being opened. He would then come to me and say, “I can’t do this film unless you get some doors opened.” I would make a phone call or send an email to a professor in that particular unit that I thought would be especially responsive to my pleading for open- ness. Much to my delight, they agreed most of the time. There were some areas where he simply George W. Breslauer was not allowed, and we were in fact per- Mark Schlissel George W. Breslauer is Professor of the Gradu- suaded that he should not be allowed: for Mark Schlissel is Provost of Brown University and ate School; Professor of Political Science, Emer- example, when leaders in our development President-Elect of the University of Michigan. itus; and Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost, office were discussing donors and strategies Emeritus at the University of California, Berke- for approaching donors. e were presented with the opportu- ley. He was elected a Fellow of the American Lawrence Bacow nity to project an image of Berke- Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2014. W ley, and that is something the faculty and Mark, you were a faculty member and a the leadership were extremely proud to be t is true that we made the decision jointly dean at Berkeley when all of this was going part of. We did not have as much fear as you Iand did not really ask anybody else. We on. I am interested in your perspective. might imagine we would have. did not do a market survey to figure out George and Bob, when they set this up, whether people would lock their doors if had Fred agree that if we asked him to stop Fred’s cameras were approaching. We did and leave, he would stop and leave. So the not ask the Academic Senate or seek any hardest part was just getting used to some- other such approval. body with a camera and a sound boom 12 inches from your face as you were in discussion. Once you forgot he was there, we just went about our business.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 27 presentations

Lawrence Bacow have a forty-eight-hour window in which to George Breslauer insist that a particular segment be removed. Did you get asked to leave very often, Fred? Fred was, of course, correctly reluctant to That is a question that is always asked, and agree to that, because he thought he might entirely legitimately so, because you would Frederick Wiseman lose the juiciest parts. assume that people would be self-conscious The only person who ended up exercising about being filmed. In the sequences in No. that right was me, and I did so five times. which I happened to be involved, I was And five out of five times, it was about poli- struck by how quickly we simply went on Lawrence Bacow ticians in Sacramento. with our work and saw the camera and sound mic almost like a fly on the wall. At Were there times in which you thought it Lawrence Bacow the time of filming, Berkeley was going was hard to tell the story that you wanted through some difficulties. We did not have to tell? Fred, in making this film, what do you the luxury of wasting meetings playing to think is the most powerful insight you had the camera or saying things that we would Frederick Wiseman about either Berkeley or higher education not have otherwise said. in general? I did not really know the story I wanted to tell. I discovered the story in the editing. While I was at Berkeley, all I tried to do was What I think I learned, and what I hope the film stimulate sequences that I thought would shows, is the devotion on the part of a lot of people be interesting. I used only one-sixtieth of the total material I collected. In the kind of in the administration to maintaining the standards filmmaking I do, there is no script, no story, and integrity of the university. no thesis in advance.

Lawrence Bacow Frederick Wiseman Robert Birgeneau

Was there a time for any of the three of you I did not really know much about Berkeley Another way you may have asked the ques- when you were nervous about what was before I started. What I think I learned, and tion is, are there things we wish were in the being recorded in real time? what I hope the film shows, is the devotion movie that are not? Fred would say no, but on the part of a lot of people in the admin- for me the answer is yes. One of the major Robert Birgeneau istration to maintaining the standards and issues that we had to deal with locally and integrity of the university. at the state and national levels was the chal- Just to add a couple of details to what Fred lenges faced by our undocumented stu- said in terms of the agreement–we actually Lawrence Bacow dents. In California, we have a very large did not have a signed contract when he first number of these students. You may not started to film. That turned out to be a good One of the things the film does quite remark- know that Berkeley was the first university thing because in one of the early meetings ably is to convey the complexity and texture in the United States to offer comprehensive involving the university’s chief leadership of an institution of this greatness. Everybody financial aid to undocumented students, team, I said something quite inappropriate. who went to college thinks they can run one. something we are very proud of. Fred got I could see my associate chancellor turn pur- This film helps counter that feeling by show- to film the beginnings of that. We had an ple because it was now captured on film. ing that a lot goes into the decision-making. undergraduate student organization called So for the sake of Berkeley’s interests and Was there any time, George, that the rise, Rising Immigrant Students for Edu- well-being, I went and talked to our lawyer, routine decision-making that goes on in a cation, which was a cover for our undoc- and after a bit of back and forth, Fred ulti- provost’s office was in any way altered or umented students. rise had about forty mately agreed that people like myself would influenced by the presence of the camera? students, the vast majority of whom were

28 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 “at berkeley”

One of the things that attracted us to Fred’s offer George Breslauer to make this film was his feeling that no one had We mentioned earlier that the internal workings of the development office were ever looked at how higher education institutions not part of the film. Neither was the office of are governed. Others have looked at what happens the president, which is the presidency over the entire California system. The regents at universities, whether in the teaching realm or the were also not part of the film. So the broader governance structure that constrains the social realm, but not at how they are governed. choices that we make at the campus level was not visible in the film. One of the things Chicano. The president of rise came to talk lic universities to provide full financial aid that attracted us to Fred’s offer to make this to me about how we could make progress on to undocumented students. So it was a phe- film was his feeling that no one had ever the political front for undocumented stu- nomenal success, Fred captured it, and yet it looked at how higher education institu- dents in this country. Fred found this meet- is not in the documentary. So I asked Fred, tions are governed. Others have looked at ing on my schedule, and we agreed that he “How could you not include this? It is the what happens at universities, whether in the could film it. But during that autumn, it hap- single most important thing that happened teaching realm or the social realm, but not pened that one of the Republican candidates in the entire 250 hours of filming.” And he at how they are governed. What was unique for governor of California promised to send replied correctly–which shows that I am about this film was its ability to peer into the the immigration police onto the California an academic, not a filmmaker–that since chancellor- and provost-level discussions of university and college campuses to grab he shot from the back what he captured what to do, given the perceived options. But all the undocumented students and deport may have been “important politically, but it it did not go into the deliberations of those them. And so not surprisingly, I was uncom- makes for bad film.” people or governing bodies that constrained fortable about having this undocumented our options. student filmed by Fred. When we had the Lawrence Bacow meeting, the student actually wanted to be Question and Answer Session filmed because he wanted his story heard, so Berkeley does not have its own board of Fred agreed to film him from the back. regents, but rather there is a California sys- Question This was perhaps the most extraordinary tem-wide board of regents. What do you half hour of my entire service as Chancellor think the conversation would be like if you What years were covered in the film? at Berkeley, because this young man talked had to persuade a board that this was a proj- in detail about his life as an undocumented ect worth undertaking? Frederick Wiseman person. His mother worked in a sweatshop in Los Angeles. The student described all the Robert Birgeneau The film was shot between August and challenges that he had faced and continued November 2010. to encounter, any one of which might well Berkeley is almost ungoverned from above; totally defeat an ordinary student. That there is no equivalent of the Harvard Cor- Robert Birgeneau meeting was so important to me personally, poration or the mit Corporation. There that I immediately became politically active are the Regents, but they are well separated That was an important period. When I on behalf of our dreamers. We got bills from the individual campuses. There was no started as chancellor of Berkeley in 2004, providing financial aid to undocumented one to ask for permission, because there was the state provided about 30 percent of our students passed in the state senate. I met virtually no one immediately in charge. budget. There was a commitment from with the governor on this issue four times, Governor Schwarzenegger that this amount and he ultimately signed the bills into law. would go up progressively, year by year. By California thereby became the first state in 2010, we had suffered two consecutive years the union to enact legislation allowing pub- of precipitous cuts, with state funding very

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 29 presentations

quickly dropping from 30 percent to 16 per- Question displayed, or sometimes both. In the Bay cent. We lost the salaries of close to half of Area reviews, there is a lot of negativity and our staff in a two-year period. And so the What has been the reaction to the film, snark. Newspapers in the Bay Area have a film captured the whole university trying to particularly outside of the university and tendency to haze the administrators and deal with a level of disinvestment that was perhaps in the political arena? Has it led to valorize the protestors. By contrast, the pro- literally unprecedented in the history of the more awareness of what universities face? testors featured in the film come across as University of California. rather vapid, and the administrators come Robert Birgeneau across as struggling to deal with difficult Comment from the Audience choices. That was not music to the ears of People who have seen this film have been very the local newspaper editorial boards. For those of us who were watching what was appreciative of just how rich and complex going on in California from a distance, it these institutions are. However, that does not Question was quite extraordinary. Other institutions mean that anyone has come down from Sacra- were trying to take advantage of all the fur- mento to say, “I am sorry that we did this hor- Quiet scholarship is an essential part of a loughs in the California system by raiding rible thing to you.” On the other hand, as we university, but I imagine that must be hard your faculty right and left. The leadership went through the worst parts of the state dis- to portray cinematically. Did you try? of Berkeley at that time did an extraordinary investment, our donors, alumni, and friends Frederick Wiseman

One of the aspects of the film that I like best is the I did not try to do that. I was not sure that classroom scenes, in which really great scholars are I knew how to capture “quiet scholarship.” teaching undergraduates. . . . The film is an adver- Robert Birgeneau tisement for the exciting work that goes on at great There is one exception: a wonderful seg- research universities in general, public or private. ment where Saul Perlmutter is conducting a research seminar. This was one year before Saul received the Nobel Prize for the very job. Fred, I am glad that you let the rest of us finally became aware that our financial model work that he was discussing in that sem- observe some of the important decisions in was now not that different from that of mit, inar. At the end of the segment featuring real time. We all owe you guys a debt of grat- Yale, or Harvard, and that they needed to step that seminar, at least at the New York Film itude for preserving one of the jewels in the up in the same way that the alumni of these Festival, the entire audience burst out in crown of American public higher education. and many other private universities routinely laughter–not because Saul was so funny, do. Our alumni offered support in a way that which he can be, but because the subject Robert Birgeneau was really marvelous during a terrible period matter was so incomprehensible to a gen- of state disinvestment. eral audience. At the time I asked George, “Why aren’t we One of the aspects of the film that I like losing faculty? Why haven’t the East Coast George Breslauer best is the classroom scenes, in which really private universities been more successful great scholars are teaching undergraduates. in disassembling our university while the We have been monitoring the reviews of the Fred captured a lot of this, and the film man- state disinvests?” I think the faculty stayed film, including those from closer to home ages to make you think, “Boy, would I like because of one another: the density of qual- in the Bay Area. What is striking is how a to be an undergraduate again and be in that ity scholars and the shared commitment to large majority of the reviews from outside class!” In this respect, the film is an adver- research and teaching as well as our public the Bay Area are highly appreciative of the tisement for the exciting work that goes purpose. It is hard to imagine a better place film, either because of Fred Wiseman’s on at great research universities in general, to be a scholar. craftsmanship or because of the university public or private.

30 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 “at berkeley”

Lawrence Bacow We hear a lot about how these great residential insti- It is also a great advertisement for what tutions are going to become dinosaurs, because we happens when we actually bring real faculty together with real students in a residential will be able to provide all this education digitally. One setting in real time. We hear a lot about how of the things the film does brilliantly is to illustrate the these great residential institutions are going to become dinosaurs, because we will be magic that happens in an actual classroom. able to provide all this education digitally. One of the things the film does brilliantly and get first addressed there, too. Consider Lawrence Bacow is to illustrate the magic that happens in an undocumented students, as Bob mentioned actual classroom. earlier. Universities across the country are Can you explain how you financed the film? devising ways to deal with this issue at a Question political, social, and financial level. Other Frederick Wiseman aspects that have to do with budget cri- Is the film meant to portray what Berkeley ses or calling in consultants or looking at There are only eight or ten places in the is about, or is it a film about what higher how we do the back office part of running world where I can go for money. I usually education is capable of within the broader a university. Berkeley is big enough, ambi- get about 15 percent of my budget from pbs, public education landscape? tious enough, and complex enough that it is with other contributions from a combina- somewhat of a canary in a coal mine for the tion of sources such as the Ford Foundation, George Breslauer higher education sector as a whole. the National Endowment for the Arts, the Independent Television Service (itvs), the I think of this film as if you are looking at a Question bbc, or French television. (I made a couple hundred impressionist paintings on recur- of films in France, so I have been eligible for ring themes. The paintings are lined up side Is there a record of what the reaction to the French subsidies.) Sometimes I have money by side, and you have two-and-a-half min- film has been in places outside the United from private foundations. utes on average in front of each one. The States? themes would recur over the course of the Lawrence Bacow film’s four hours, and you gain an impres- Robert Birgeneau sion in the process. The pastoral scenes I just have to observe that many of those in could be any other university. The classroom Just last week I received an email from Pres- Congress who have been hostile to higher scenes could be any other great university. ident François Hollande’s press attaché education have also been hostile to some of The extracurricular student activities could extolling the virtues of the movie, and of the sources that have been funding your films. be any other great university, whether it is Berkeley, and saying that she was going to music-related activities or rotc or throw- make sure that her daughter got her univer- Question ing a Frisbee on the lawn. What is unique to sity education at Berkeley. But this film is Berkeley, I think, is the deliberation among not just about Berkeley; it is about how the Did you document the relationship between the administrators with regard to handling American research university is a unique the academic side of Berkeley and its ath- the crisis in which we found ourselves. institution. Even though we copied the form letic prowess? from the Germans, we now do universities Mark Schlissel a lot better than any other country in the Frederick Wiseman world except, perhaps, Great Britain. Having been at a number of different insti- We did about ninety seconds of football and tutions, I can report that all our institutions maybe sixty-five seconds of women’s field are dealing with the same problems. Yet it hockey. seems as if they bubble up first at Berkeley,

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 31 presentations

Question The sports entertainment business brings great How do you explain these rather strange notoriety to our universities. . . . We must not, relationships we have between major universities and public entertainment, partic- though, lose sight of the fact that we are academic ularly in terms of athletics? institutions, and sports are auxiliary, an extracurric- Mark Schlissel ular activity.

It is a real challenge getting the balance riolic email, hateful beyond belief, just try George Breslauer right. The sports entertainment business cutting major sports like baseball and rugby. brings great notoriety to our universities. I had seen this coming a year in advance We have very few donors who give only to Many of our peers claim that application because the intercollegiate athletics budget athletics. When you look at the list of major numbers go up when the home team has was spiraling out of control, so that we were donors to athletics, for the most part they a good season. We must not, though, lose not going to be able to continue to support also make large donations to the academic sight of the fact that we are academic insti- our athletics program in the way that we tra- side. n tutions, and sports are auxiliary, an extra- ditionally had. And so I sent an email to our curricular activity. You have to keep that major donors to athletics, saying that their © 2014 by Lawrence S. Bacow, Frederick separation in mind while recognizing the sports were in danger and they needed to Wiseman, Robert J. Birgeneau, George W. community-building aspects of intercolle- step up. They didn’t, and so we announced Breslauer, and Mark Schlissel, respectively giate sports. that we were being forced to cut the sports. Then the alumni athletic supporters all Robert Birgeneau came to me and asked what they could do. To view or listen to the presentations, visit https://www.amacad.org/ Baseball, which had been raising about atberkeley. Just one factoid: an important role that $300,000 a year to support the team, mag- men’s football and men’s basketball play is ically raised $10 million in six weeks imme- that they generate a lot of income, and that diately after we announced the prospective income supports our Olympic sports. In the demise of the team as a varsity sport. The London summer Olympics, Berkeley ath- same thing happened in rugby. It was an letes, including both current students and extraordinary phenomenon. graduates, won the same number of gold One of the people who gave $1 million to medals as did France and Germany. And baseball also gave $5 million to support aca- four of the Pac-12 schools–Berkeley, ucla, demic programs in Public Policy. So, had we Stanford, and usc–account for nearly not saved the baseball team, we might well one half of the gold medals that the United not have received the $5 million for Public States has won historically in the summer Policy. At a pac-12 university like Berke- Olympics. ley academic and athletic philanthropy One of the things I had to do in the mid- are much more tightly connected than you dle of the funding challenges, because the could ever imagine. faculty demanded it and we really had no choice, was to announce at a press conference (which Fred filmed, but thank God did not put in the film) that Berkeley would no longer have varsity rugby, men’s baseball, women’s lacrosse, or men’s and women’s gymnastics. If you ever want to receive vit-

32 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014

Al-Qaeda and the Bomb: How Institutions Protect Against the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism

n May 15, 2014, at the Academy’s 2008th Stated Meeting, five experts discussed how institutions protect against the threat of nuclear terrorism. Scott D. Sagan (Cochair of the Academy’s Global Nuclear Future Initiative; Caroline OS.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University) moderated a panel discussion with Thomas Hegghammer (Director of Terrorism Research at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment), Paul N. Stockton (Managing Director of Sonecon, llc, and former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas’ Security Affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense), Jessica Stern (Fellow at the fxb Center for Health and Human Rights and Lecturer in Government at Harvard University), and Matthew Bunn (Professor of Practice at Harvard Kennedy School). The following is an edited transcript of the discussion.

The 9/11 attacks were a wake-up call, not only to the general danger of global terrorism, but also to the specific danger of nuclear terrorism.

he 9/11 attacks were a wake-up call, not nuclear facility to sabotage it, create a vul- T only to the general danger of global nerability, or make a terrorist attack possi- terrorism, but also to the specific danger of ble. Unless we address the insider threat, nuclear terrorism. Osama Bin Laden had efforts to reduce the outsider terrorist dan- earlier said that he felt that it was the duty of ger will be inadequate. all Muslims to try to get a nuclear weapon. In order to address these problems, we Khalid Sheikh Mohammed admitted that have gathered together a remarkably diverse the 9/11 attackers had considered, in their and experienced group of people, including planning before September 11, 2001, the senior military commanders, psychiatrists, option of attacking a U.S. nuclear reactor to biologists, nuclear specialists from the try to create a Chernobyl-type event. Both Department of Energy, and political scien- those threats were taken far more seriously tists and historians. Our guiding principle after 9/11. In the years since the 2001 attacks, is that we should not only learn from our Scott D. Sagan the United States and its allies and friends past mistakes, but also practice what I call Scott D. Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro have significantly degraded the capability “vicarious learning.” We should learn not Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and of Al-Qaeda, by attacking, killing, and cap- only from our own past mistakes but also Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergradu- turing the leadership and by damaging the from those of others in order to minimize ate Education, and Senior Fellow at the Center organizational structure. The United States future insider threats. has also significantly tightened security for International Security and Cooperation and around nuclear materials, although more the Freeman Spogli Institute for International can be done in this arena. Studies at Stanford University. He was elected In the Academy’s Global Nuclear Future a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and project, we recognized that one of the Sciences in 2008 and serves as Cochair of the most insidious dangers is that of an insider Academy’s Global Nuclear Future Initiative. threat. In these scenarios, an individual of malicious intent, or somebody that has been coerced, could do something inside a

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 33 presentations

We propose that terrorists may see insider recruitment as so difficult and so unlikely to succeed that they do not even try; they opt for other methods instead.

are no detailed manuals of the kind that But presumably, this happens so rarely that exist for many other tactics. the terrorist planners cannot count on it as As far as plots and attempts are concerned, a reliably available option. we found only one confirmed serious nuclear Despite the apparently low use of insider insider attack involving terrorists, occurring tactics, the insider threat is real and grow- in South Africa in 1982 at a plant under con- ing. One of the primary concerns we have struction and with lax security. Of course, we is the enormous increase in the amount cannot be sure that there haven’t been other of online radical propaganda over the last attempts, and we are uncertain about some of decade. In our view, this increases the like- the data. But we think that at worst, there have lihood that employees at nuclear facilities only been a handful of other such incidents– may radicalize after they are hired, and and this is out of over 100,000 instances of either act alone or reach out to a group. terrorist activity over several decades. In light of this, we offer three policy rec- Thomas Hegghammer There have been several attempts to ommendations. The first is to develop good Thomas Hegghammer is Director of Terrorism attack nuclear facilities, but not with insider monitoring systems to identify radicalizing Research at the Norwegian Defence Research tactics. Terrorists have used other methods, insiders early. The second is for govern- Establishment and author of “Jihad in Saudi typically armed assault or attempted bomb- ments to develop a strategy to undermine Arabia.” ings. We see these same methods discussed trust between terrorists on the outside and in the texts as well, but again, comparatively radicalizing employees on the inside, so little about using insiders. This is very inter- that when an insider contacts a terrorist ow interested have terrorists been in esting, because much of the literature so far organization, that terrorist organization H the past in attacking nuclear instal- seems to take for granted that terrorists is reluctant to cooperate with him or her. lations through insiders? The motivation will want to use insiders to get into nuclear Sting operations and information-gathering for this question is, of course, that we installations, because it seems the most log- operations are just two possible methods of know how damaging the insider tactic ical thing to do. undermining that trust. can be. But there has been little research This finding begs for an explanation. My A third recommendation is for gov- into how serious terrorists are about car- coauthor and I do not know the answer, but ernments to release more data on insider rying such operations out. My colleague we propose that terrorists may see insider crimes. The data on this phenomenon that Andreas Daehli and I set out to examine recruitment as so difficult and so unlikely we and other academics have had to work what terrorists have written about this to succeed that they do not even try; they with are very patchy, and we believe that in their literature, as well as any nuclear opt for other methods instead. Why is releasing more information would produce insider recruitment that has actually been insider recruitment so difficult? One of more robust research and better advice attempted or carried out. We discovered the key factors is surveillance. Active ter- against this very important threat. that, in fact, based on the evidence that we rorist groups expect to be under close sur- have, they have not been very interested veillance, which makes it very difficult for in infiltrating nuclear facilities so far. We them to insert an existing operative into discovered no elaborate texts about the a nuclear facility or to recruit someone nuclear insider tactic in the vast jihadi already on the inside. It is easier, of course, literature or the far-right literature. There if someone on the inside reaches out to the are references to insider tactics, but there group and makes him- or herself available.

34 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 al-qaeda and the bomb

Too many people have security clearances, including plenty who don’t need them; those who have security clearances have far too broad access to classified material; and too much information is classified.

gaps in security that leave us more open to Second, too many of those granted secu- insider threats than we ought to be. rity clearances have overly broad access to In the aftermath of 9/11, the number classified information. The broad access of people in the Department of Defense that personnel have today stems in part and the federal government who have from lessons learned from 9/11. The pri- secret and top-secret security clearances mary lesson of 9/11 was that we failed to ballooned. By some measures, over three connect the dots. People in the intelligence million dod personnel now have these community, in the fbi, and elsewhere were clearances. Many personnel have no need not able to share information well enough Paul N. Stockton for them. Those joining the U.S. military to understand the nature of the threat. Paul N. Stockton is Managing Director of Son- automatically are adjudicated to receive However, I believe we have over-learned econ, LLC. Before joining Sonecon, he served as secret clearances shortly after they sign this lesson. Today, personnel can share Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland up, whether their jobs require it or not. classified information across a broad array Defense and Americas’ Security Affairs. In Sep- Under law, the Department of Defense and of domains. Relatively low-level employ- other departments are supposed to make ees, such as system administrators, can use tember 2013, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel sure that those who get security clearances this broad access to information to damage appointed him to co-chair the Independent have a demonstrated need-to-know the U.S. security. Individuals such as Edward Review of the Washington Navy Yard Shootings. classified information to which they will Snowden and Chelsea Manning exploited have access. However, the Department this situation to do immense harm. We need recently had the honor of being appointed has effectively dropped that as a guideline to reevaluate who needs access to what. I to co-chair the Independent Review of since 9/11. The new norm is that everybody Finally, too much information is inappro- the Washington Navy Yard Shootings, which gets security clearances, and people who priately classified. If everything is classified, were the result of an insider threat of a dif- never should have had clearances become but security clearances are commonplace, ferent sort than we have been focusing on trusted insiders–including Aaron Alexis, how are we to protect the genuine secrets tonight. But in the course of the committee’s the Washington Navy Yard shooter. that really are our crown jewels? If every- work, we identified some larger gaps in secu- The U.S. government also needs to ensure thing is secret nothing is. Let’s focus on rity that apply to all types of insider threats. that once appropriate people are granted protecting information that is truly vital to One particular vulnerability lies in our security clearances, they are vetted more national security. If information is not gen- flawed security clearance system. I believe carefully when they are serving the Depart- uinely in need of being classified, I would there are three problems with the system: ment, and are evaluated on a continuous suggest it should be out in the open to help first, too many people have security clear- basis. At a time when budgets in the Defense inform public debate. ances, including personnel who don’t need Department are going down, the only way them; second, too many of those who have to afford the creation of such a continuous security clearances have dangerously broad evaluation system is to reduce the size of the access to classified material; and third, too cleared population. We can do this by mak- much information is inappropriately classi- ing sure that only those who genuinely need fied. Together, these issues create significant security clearances will receive them.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 35 presentations

The letters, which were dated Septem- Nonetheless, that assumption was wrong. ber 11, 2001, contained the words, “Death The strain used in the attacks was the Ames to America. Death to Israel. And Allah is strain, isolated from a sick cow in Texas, Great.” So, given the text of the letters and and reportedly distributed to only five the timing, officials initially assumed that labs in the United States, Canada, and the the letters were part of a second-wave assault United Kingdom. One of those locations by Al-Qaeda or Iraq, or possibly the two was usamriid, which is the Department working together. This theory was bolstered of Defense’s own biological laboratory in

We need to take the clearance process much more seriously than we do now. We shouldn’t hire private firms that have a financial incentive to rush clearances through, which is current practice.

by the fact that Iraq had admitted to an enor- Frederick, Maryland. The identification of Jessica Stern mous biological weapons program, inform- the strain led authorities to focus on govern- Jessica Stern is a Fellow at the FXB Center for ing the United Nations that it had 8,500 liters ment scientists–in other words, insiders– Health and Human Rights, a Lecturer in Gov- of anthrax. The cia had warned that Saddam as the likeliest perpetrators. ernment at Harvard University, and a member could deliver biological or chemical agents The government initially focused on a clandestinely using special forces, civilian of the Hoover Institution Task Force on National physician named Steven Hatfill, who had government agents, or foreign tourists in an worked at usamriid. Hatfill was even- Security and Law. attempt to take out as many of his enemies tually exonerated. Years after the attack, as he could. Iraq had also repeatedly threat- another potential insider was identified, am going to talk about another insider ened to smuggle anthrax and other weapons and that was Bruce Ivins. I will briefly tell I actor, this one at a government bioweap- of mass destruction into Britain, in one case you what we know about him. ons research lab. A week after September threatening to put anthrax in duty-free bot- Dr. Ivins, who worked at usamriid, was a 11, 2001, letters containing anthrax spores tles of alcohol, cosmetics, cigarette lighters, complex man who claimed to have two sides were delivered to the offices of nbc News, and perfume sprays. to his personality. His public face was a pillar the New York Post, and the National Enquirer. Immediately after 9/11, when our govern- of the community. He was involved in devel- Over the next month, contaminated let- ment was considering invading Iraq, many oping anthrax vaccines and was responsible ters were sent to then–Senate Majority of my colleagues here in Cambridge were for preparing anthrax to test them. In fact, he Leader Tom Daschle and Senator Patrick skeptical. They thought the Bush adminis- was a member of the team that investigated Leahy, among others. By the end of the year, tration was just making up evidence of Iraq’s the attacks. He received an Outstanding anthrax-contaminated letters had infected possession of weapons of mass destruction Civilian Employee award from the Depart- at least 22 people, five of whom died. To out of whole cloth. But the truth is that Iraq ment of Defense in 2003. He was active in allow for a complete sweep of its offices, the had admitted to possessing an enormous the Catholic Church; he played keyboard at House stopped operations for five days. The biological weapons program in the 1990s. masses and other functions. He wrote poems Hart Building was closed for several months Moreover, there was confusion about the and sent them to his colleagues. He was seen while it was fumigated and cleaned. Opera- presence of silica and the erroneous iden- as a very kind man, if a bit eccentric. tions at the Supreme Court were disrupted. tification of bentonite (an additive known But there was another side of Dr. Ivins In retrospect, considering these attacks to be used by Iraq in its anthrax). So, it was that was largely unknown, even though this outside of the shadow of 9/11, they had an reasonable to assume that Iraq was involved hidden side should have been investigated, impressive impact. in the anthrax attack. and should have prevented him from getting

36 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 al-qaeda and the bomb

a security clearance or working with biolog- to investigate discrepancies in his security ical agents. What did government authori- clearance applications. ties not know that they should have known? Another interesting feature of this case is First, Dr. Ivins was mentally ill. There were that Ivins deliberately deflected the inves- discrepancies in his security-clearance tigation away from himself. He hinted forms that were not followed up on. Had that Iraq might have acquired the Ames anyone spoken with his clinicians, author- strain. He hinted that Al-Qaeda might have ities would have known that Dr. Ivins had been involved. He mislabeled samples so been involved in criminal activities and had that it looked like the anthrax used in the a history of serious mental illness. Indeed, attack was actually from another facility. one of his clinicians described him as the He refused to turn over the samples until scariest patient she had ever treated. He somebody actually came right into the lab drank to excess. He was on a cocktail of med- and took them from him. ications (including antipsychotics), some of Ivins’s case shows that red flags can be which were prescribed to him fraudulently. ignored to an astonishing degree. People When he asked a girl out on a date in college do not want to rat out their colleagues. It and she declined, he became obsessed with is not enough to have good procedures on her sorority–a serious obsession that lasted the books: regulations must be followed. the rest of his life. The obsession led him to For example, Ivins working at night in the stalk members of the sorority and to break “hot suites” just before the anthrax mail- into sorority buildings. His first therapist ings should have been noticed, but wasn’t. said that when she heard about the anthrax Another lesson is that we need to take the attack, she immediately thought of him. clearance process much more seriously than I will read you one of the poems that he we do now. We shouldn’t hire private firms wrote to one of his colleagues. that have a financial incentive to rush clearances through, which is current practice. I’m a little dream self But what was his motivation? Briefly, he Short and stout had a financial incentive. He was working I’m the other half of Bruce on anthrax vaccines, and if people were When he lets me out. really frightened of anthrax, his vaccine When I get all steamed up might have more interest from buyers. He I don’t pout. wanted to bring attention to inadequate I push Bruce aside preparation for a biological attack, it seems. Then I’m free to run about. I agree with Paul Stockton that the securi- Bruce and this other guy ty-clearance process is broken. I know from Sitting by some trees personal experience that the people who do Exchanging personalities the field work for security clearances are It’s like having two-in-one inadequately trained for the job. They don’t Actually, it’s rather fun. do their homework. The clearance process is still too focused on Cold-War-era threats. The colleague to whom Ivins sent this In the case of Snowden and Ivins, it seems to poem did not inform the authorities. All me that narcissism might be a risk factor. I the information about his psychotherapy, think that narcissism and other psychologi- the psychotropic medications he was on, cal factors should be more closely examined. and his discussion about his criminal activities were available if people had bothered

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 37 presentations

are in the public record. However, none of as a Unitarian might say, “The Ten Sugges- them were clearly connected to terrorists, tions.” I will discuss three of these. as Thomas Hegghammer has pointed out. First, we found that there are a lot of cog- The majority of cases we have found so far nitive and organizational biases that under- are of opportunistic insiders who steal the mine most organizations’ focus on the material and then go looking for someone significance of the insider threat, leading to sell it to. organizations to fail to accurately address

Governments ought to put together analyses of the real incidents that have taken place, and then they ought to share them and make them more broadly available.

But we do not know the circumstances of it. The first of these biases, I think, is over- many of these thefts. It is a disturbing fact confidence. Just as people say, “not in my Matthew Bunn that only a few were ever noticed before the backyard,” so there is also “not in my orga- Matthew Bunn is Professor of Practice at the material was later seized, which strongly nization.” People really believe: “All the Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal suggests that there are more thefts that people in my organization are trustworthy. I Investigator of Harvard’s Managing the Atom were, in fact, never noticed. But all the thefts know them. They would never be an insider Project. He is the author of more than twenty whose circumstances we do know were problem.” The example we use is the tragic done by insiders or with the help of insiders, assassination of Indian Prime Minister books and major technical reports, including and all the others look like they were likely Indira Gandhi. After the Golden Temple vio- “Securing the Bomb” series. done by insiders. That is why we are focus- lence, her security manager recommended ing so intently on this issue. to her that she remove the Sikhs from her bout two decades ago at a nuclear As Scott Sagan mentioned, he and I security detail, at least temporarily, and she A fuel fabrication facility about an hour offered “worst practices”–lessons from said, “No, for political reasons, I need to be outside of Moscow, a man named Leonid disasters–because disasters often offer seen as the Prime Minister of all the people, Smirnov began stealing weapons-grade more vivid and memorable lessons than including the Sikhs, and I trust these partic- highly enriched uranium. He was having somebody just telling you a useful thing ular people.” And the man who first pulled severe financial problems; the Russian to do. We quote Bismarck on the subject the trigger, the man who gunned her down, ruble was collapsing and his salary was not of learning from other people: only a fool was a Sikh who was her most trusted guard. keeping up. He was part of the accounting learns from his mistakes; a wise man learns You have to avoid believing that it will never system for the facility, so he knew that as from the mistakes of others. But I have happen in your organization. long as output was within 3 percent or so of another favorite quote, this one from the Second, do not assume that background input, the missing uranium would be writ- American humorist Will Rogers. To para- checks or ongoing monitoring are going to ten off as normal losses to waste. So he stole phrase: “Some men are able to learn from catch every threat. Often, you don’t see the little bits at a time over several months. He other people’s mistakes, but most people red flags when they are there. Sometimes the ultimately stole over a kilogram and a half have to pee on the electric fence for them- red flags simply are not there. Sometimes of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium. selves.” So we are hoping to help people the insiders genuinely are trustworthy, but And, lest you think that there is not much learn from other people’s mistakes without are coerced. We use the example of a bank threat of insiders, this is only one of about suffering the consequences themselves. We in Northern Ireland, which had a perfectly twenty confirmed cases of seizure of stolen have ten lessons; we might call them the sensible security system that required two highly enriched uranium or plutonium that Bunn and Sagan Ten Commandments, or senior officers of the bank to turn their keys

38 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 al-qaeda and the bomb

The fundamental lesson underlying all of our advice is: Don’t assume. Evaluate. Assess. Test. Collect real data to the extent that you can. in order to open the vault. A gang kidnapped the families of two of the senior officers of the bank, the officers turned their keys, and the gang went off with millions of pounds. Finally, don’t assume that there will only be one insider, that there will not be a con- spiracy. If you look at thefts from heavily guarded facilities (not nuclear facilities, but just as an analogy), what you find is that overwhelmingly, they are the result of con- spiracies. It is not just one individual who overcomes the security system, it is a con- spiracy of people. They happen all the time, but they are very difficult to guard against. It is very tricky to design your security system to cope with the possibility that two or three of the people you are relying on for the security might be the very people attempting to bypass it. And so administrators tend to discount the possibility and brush it away. The fundamental lesson underlying all of our advice is, “Don’t assume.” We urge people: “Don’t assume. Evaluate. Assess. Test. Collect real data to the extent that you can.” So one of our recommendations parallels one of Thomas’s, which is that governments ought to put together analyses of the real incidents that have taken place, and then they ought to share them and make them more broadly available. Stories are very effective teaching tools. n

To view or listen to the presentations, visit https://www.amacad.org/ alqaeda.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 39 presentations

The Universe Is Stranger Than We Thought

t a meeting sponsored by the American Academy, the Royal Society, and the Carnegie Institution for Science, Wendy Freedman (Crawford H. Greenewalt Chair and Director of Carnegie Observatories at the Carnegie Insti- A tution for Science) and Martin Rees (Fellow of Trinity College; Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophys- ics at the University of Cambridge; Astronomer Royal; and Visiting Professor at Imperial College London and at Leicester University) discussed what we know and do not know about the universe. Richard A. Meserve (President of the Carnegie Institution for Science) moderated the discussion. The meeting took place on April 29, 2014, at the Carnegie Institution for Science. An edited version of the presentations follows.

that we fundamentally do not understand inventory is embodied in dark energy, a sub- the stuff that comprises 95 percent of the stance we have not yet begun to understand. universe: dark energy and dark matter. In But even before the discovery of evidence one sense, in this time of scientific achieve- for dark energy, we had already found evi- ment, our ignorance is a little embarrassing. dence of dark matter. In fact, Vera Rubin, But in another sense, this is a time of enor- a Carnegie astronomer, was responsible mous excitement. There are deep mysteries for the verification of the existence of dark to be solved, presenting a great challenge to matter. Rubin helped prove dark matter’s the researchers of our time. existence through her measurements of its Over the last two decades, we have learned that we fundamentally do not understand the stuff that comprises 95 percent of the universe: dark energy and dark matter.

We first learned about dark energy about influence on the movement of stars within Richard A. Meserve fifteen years ago. Cosmologists had long galaxies. The trajectories she observed sim- Richard A. Meserve is President of the Carnegie expected that the force of gravity produced ply did not fit Newton’s laws of gravity; there Institution for Science. He was elected a Fellow by the matter in the universe would cause had to be matter that we cannot observe. of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences the universe’s expansion to slow down, and Once we accommodate it, we find that dark in 1994, and serves on the Academy’s Council perhaps eventually to reverse course. But matter constitutes about 25 percent of the contrary to everyone’s expectations, obser- matter/energy inventory of the universe. and Trust. He is also a member of the advisory vations of Type Ia supernovae by the High-Z So, the stars and galaxies and the con- committee to the Academy’s Global Nuclear Supernova Search Team in 1998 and by the ventional matter we observe all around Future Initiative and to the Academy’s Science Supernova Cosmology Project one year us really only compose 5 percent of what and Technology policy study group. later suggested that the expansion of the constitutes our universe. Our research has universe is actually accelerating. Thus, we revealed to us deep mysteries about the ne of the defining characteristics of were presented with a great mystery: why is remaining 95 percent, inspiring the title Oscience is the reality that the more you the universe’s expansion accelerating, and of tonight’s discussion, “The Universe Is know, the more you realize you don’t know. what could possibly be fueling it? To answer Stranger Than We Thought.” And there is perhaps no field today in which these questions, cosmologists rethought the that is more evident than in astronomy. known contents of the universe, determining Over the last two decades, we have learned that about 70 percent of its matter/energy

40 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 the universe is stranger than we thought

The universe is being stretched apart and the galaxies are participating in this overall expansion of the universe.

discovery of the acceleration of the expan- now know as our Milky Way galaxy. That sion of the universe. was an extraordinary early discovery to I will begin with the discovery of the come out of the first telescopes at Hale’s universe’s expansion, for which we are observatory. But it was the 100-inch Mount indebted to Edwin Hubble, after whom the Wilson telescope, whose construction Hubble Space Telescope is named. The his- began before the 60-inch telescope was even tory of Hubble’s discovery–and of cosmol- complete, that enabled Hubble to make his ogy in the twentieth century generally–is discoveries about the expanding universe. inextricably intertwined with the history Edwin Hubble used the 100-inch tele- of the Carnegie Institution of Science itself. scope to study a class of objects known as Andrew Carnegie had a vision: if you hired “nebulae.” In the early twentieth century, exceptional scientists, and if you gave them nebula was the classification given to any resources, a laboratory, and the apparatus number of diffuse objects, including inter- Wendy Freedman to do science, then interesting discover- stellar clouds of dust and gas that we now Wendy Freedman is Crawford H. Greenewalt ies would follow. Likewise, George Ellery know act as stellar nurseries, star clusters Chair and Director of Carnegie Observatories Hale, the first director of the observatories and galaxies beyond the Milky Way. Figure at the Carnegie Institution for Science. She was of the Carnegie Institution, had a vision of 1 features a photograph of Hubble exam- elected a Fellow of the American Academy of his own: if you built large telescopes with ining a glass photographic plate, as well as reflecting mirrors, then you would make an image of the nearby Andromeda neb- Arts and Sciences in 2000. discoveries in astronomy. Hale was fond ula shown on a plate Hubble took. Glass of saying, “Make no little plans. They have photographic plates were the detectors century ago, we astronomers under- no magic to stir men’s blood,” a quotation in use when the 100-inch Mount Wilson A stood the universe to be both domi- from the American architect Daniel Burn- telescope became operational. The black nated by stars and unchanging with time. ham. And Hale certainly made no little fuzzy mass centered on the glass plate is We observed the diurnal motions of stars, plans, arriving in Pasadena in 1903, where what Hubble identified as a nebula. These but they were, to us, fixed; the universe he identified Mount Wilson as a site for his objects had been catalogued by astron- was neither expanding nor contracting. observatory of large reflecting telescopes. omers for a couple hundred years. The A century later, we have learned that ours At Mount Wilson, Hale first built a solar question was, were these nebulae objects is a dynamic universe: it is evolving, it is telescope (he was a solar astronomer and, swirling around regions of gas and dust, changing with time, it is filled not only with in fact, was the astronomer who discovered collecting under gravity to form new stars stars but with galaxies composed of stars that there were magnetic fields on the Sun) in the Milky Way? Or were they perhaps and exotic objects like black holes, and it is and then began construction of a 60-inch galaxies like the Milky Way, at far greater overwhelmingly filled with dark energy and mirror telescope. This 60-inch telescope distances? In the box in the upper right with matter that bears little resemblance to is what then Carnegie astronomer Harlow corner of the photographic plate in Fig- the matter that we know about. These find- Shapley used to discover that our Sun is not ure 1, which is a negative image, you can ings were part of a century of far-reaching the center of the universe, where it had been see where Hubble marked “var!” “var” cosmological discovery. Today, I will con- presumed to reside ever since Copernicus stands for variable, and the new variable centrate on three discoveries in particular: had in 1543 shown that the Earth was not the Hubble had found was a class of star called the discovery of the expanding universe, the center of the universe. Shapley showed that a Cepheid: a star whose luminosity and discovery of evidence supporting the pres- the Sun is actually located about two-thirds pulsation period allow astronomers to ence of dark matter in the universe, and the of the way out in a disk, a plane, of what we measure distances to extragalactic objects.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 41 presentations

theory and Hubble’s observations led to our picture of a universe developed from the Big Bang: a furiously hot and dense explosion about 14 billion years ago. This extrapola- tion of Hubble’s observations has since been confirmed by more exact measurements of the Cepheid variables recently taken with the Hubble Space Telescope and its sister satellite, the Spitzer Space Telescope (which operates in the medium infrared, very long wavelengths)–which have charted out the distance scale of the universe based on many galaxies. Further, using the Hubble Space Telescope, we have estimated the age of the universe to be about 13.7 billion years, a number that has been corroborated by numerous independent findings. The second discovery I want to talk about is the existence of dark matter in the uni- Figure 1. verse. That story begins with the obser- Left: Astronomer Edwin Hubble examining plate, c. 1952 vations of Fritz Zwicky at Caltech in the Right: Hubble’s discovery plate of a Cepheid in Andromeda 1930s, and the observations by Carnegie astronomer Horace Babcock, who in 1939 made the first measurements of the veloc- Using Cepheids, Hubble was able to show one hundred billion stars; and 2) that the ity of stars in the Andromeda galaxy (the that Andromeda was well beyond the con- universe is expanding and that the galaxies same galaxy in which Hubble discovered fines of our own galaxy–we now know it is are participating in this overall expansion of Cepheids). Zwicky found that the veloci- about two million light years away from us. the universe. ties of galaxies in the nearby Coma cluster Hubble went on to make these measurements for many different galaxies and, as illustrated The current best hypothesis is that dark matter is by Figure 2, he was able to show that when he plotted the velocity (km/s; erroneously a relic from the early universe that interacts with labeled just “km” on Hubble’s graph) of the galaxy on one axis and the distance (millions ordinary matter only through gravity. of parsecs or Megaparsecs, where 1 parsec = 3.26 light years) on the other, there was a We think Hubble did not actually believe were so high that the galaxies could not have correlation between how fast the galaxy was that the universe was expanding, despite been bound to the cluster; they should have moving and the distances he measured. That the evidence his empirical results provided. escaped long ago. Babcock learned that the is, the farther away the galaxy is, the faster it It was the integration of Einstein’s General velocity of stars and gas in the Andromeda is moving away from us. Theory of Relativity that described, based galaxy increases and then stays constant as These were two spectacular discover- on Hubble’s observational results about the you move away from the center of the gal- ies: 1) what followed is that we now know linear relationship between velocity and axy toward the outer regions. The expecta- that there are about one hundred billion distance, that the universe must have had tion was that in the same manner that we such galaxies in our observable universe in a beginning. If the universe is expanding observe the orbital velocities of planets in addition to our own, and that within gal- now, there must have been a time when it our solar system reduce proportionally to axies like our Milky Way, there are about was compressed, hot, and dense. Einstein’s the distance from the Sun, the velocities of

42 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 the universe is stranger than we thought

stars and gases in galaxies should fall off in explanations, but the evidence for what to us the strength of the gravitational influ- the outer regions. For decades, these data would become known as dark matter kept ence of the object that is changing the light’s were largely ignored because they were not increasing. The measurements of velocities course. But the arcs we observe suggest that expected and simply could not be explained. of other galaxies in clusters confirmed Fritz there is far more mass acting upon the light Then in the 1970s, Vera Rubin, of Carnegie’s Zwicky’s measurements in the Coma clus- than is accounted for by the luminous mat- Department of Terrestrial Magnetism in ter. Additionally, with new advancements ter in galaxies alone. Washington, D.C., made her own observations. Once again, the velocities of outer We do not know the nature of the dark energy that stars and gases in every galaxy that Rubin and her collaborator Kent Ford measured is causing the acceleration of the expansion, but it either increased or remained flat. Other astronomers measured the velocities of makes up most of the composition of the universe. hydrogen clouds within galaxies. None of these velocities decreased with distance as in X-ray astronomy, astronomers were able Ultimately, only about 4 percent of the they did in the solar system. to discover gas as hot as 100 million degrees total composition of mass and energy in Rubin’s findings signaled that there was Celsius residing in these galaxy clusters. But the universe is ordinary visible matter. The additional matter in the outer regions of without additional mass to bind this gas to vast majority of the matter in the universe is these galaxies whose gravitational influence the cluster, it should have, at those tempera- dark. We cannot see it and it does not emit bound these high-velocity stars to the structures, evaporated. Finally, Einstein’s Gen- visible light or any kind of electromagnetic ture. Without additional matter, there sim- eral Relativity predicted that space would radiation. So what could this dark matter ply would not be enough mass to prevent bend in the vicinity of a massive object, and be? Could it be rocks, planets, remnants of the stars, moving at such great speeds, from light would bend around it. This phenome- old stars that no longer shine? Could it be escaping the galaxy. There were alternative non, known as gravitational lensing, reveals gas, massive compact objects, space dust, or black holes? In the 1980s, many groups embarked on searches for dark matter in such forms that we already understood, and all failed. The only option left standing was an undiscovered particle, one formed soon after the Big Bang. The current best hypothesis is that dark matter is a relic from the early universe that interacts with ordinary matter only through gravity. That is, dark matter does not interact via electromagnetic or other known forces. Researchers are currently looking for dark matter in underground laboratories, shielded by lead from other noise sources, using detectors made of elements like germanium and silicon to look for this very faint signal from what could be these weakly interact- ing massive particles. The Fermi gamma-ray satellite, as well as the Large Hadron Collider –a particle accelerator between France and Switzerland that accelerates particles to very Figure 2. Hubble Diagram (1929) high velocities and smashes them–are also looking for evidence of dark matter candi-

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 43 presentations

dates. Physicists and astronomers hope that centimeter). It appears that there is energy Texas a&m, as well as Australia and South these elusive particles will be discovered in in the vacuum of space, and although the Korea. The gmt is a 25-meter (1000-inch) the next decade–a Nobel Prize for this dis- density is so slight, the sheer volume of telescope that will use seven mirrors, each covery awaits. space establishes the energy’s dominance over 27 feet in diameter, to capture images The third discovery I would like to dis- in our universe. Although astronomers have ten times the resolution of the Hubble Space cuss is the acceleration of the expansion of now measured the effects of dark energy and Telescope. These mirrors are being manu- the universe, a discovery made in 1998 and dark matter in several independent ways, factured underneath the football stadium 1999 by two independent groups studying we do not yet understand the fundamental at the University of Arizona–not what the Type Ia supernovae. Type Ia supernovae are nature of what is causing the universe to be football stadium was designed to do, but thought to occur in a binary star system in stretched apart; nor do we know at this time it really is a good use of the empty space which one of the stars is a white dwarf (a what composes 95 percent of the universe. in the facility! We will ship these mirrors and assemble this telescope at Carnegie’s Although astronomers have now measured the Las Campanas Observatory in the Andes Mountains in Chile, home to our current effects of dark energy and dark matter in several 6.5-meter Magellan Telescopes. We hope to begin taking data with the gmt in 2021. independent ways, we do not yet understand the In summary, our universe has revealed fundamental nature of what is causing the universe itself to be quite extraordinary. It is stranger than we think, it is vast, it is expanding and to be stretched apart. that expansion is accelerating, it is filled with exotic objects and new kinds of mat- star that has completed its normal life cycle To conclude, I quickly want to say a few ter and energy. And I would venture that it and has ceased nuclear fusion). If the white words about what is on the horizon, because is very unlikely to be through surprising us. dwarf accretes enough mass from its com- this is a very exciting time in astronomy. panion star and exceeds a certain mass, that The successor to the Hubble Space Tele- white dwarf explodes in so bright a display scope, the James Webb Space Telescope– that you can actually see it over most of the which features a mirror 6.5 meters (250 observable universe. Another possibility is inches) in diameter–is due to be launched that the explosion occurs when two white in 2018. Unlike the Hubble, which orbits dwarf stars merge. Whatever the mecha- the Earth about 350 miles above our heads nism, the supernovae themselves can be (for comparison, the Earth-Moon distance as bright as an entire galaxy. Using these is about 250,000 miles), the James Webb supernovae, we have found that as we look Space Telescope will reside about one mil- back further in time (farther in space), the lion miles from the Earth, and will let us expansion rate has increased over time–the study some of the earliest moments in the expansion of the universe is accelerating. universe, including the so-called Dark Ages The reason for this acceleration is not well about 400,000 years after the Big Bang, understood at this time. We do not know the about which we know virtually nothing. nature of the dark energy that is causing the Back on the ground, I have had the plea- acceleration of the expansion, but it makes sure of leading an international consortium up most of the composition of the universe. planning the Giant Magellan Telescope To give you some sense of what we think we (gmt), now poised to enter its construc- know about dark energy, the density of dark tion phase. The gmt is a joint effort by the energy is tiny–about 10-30 grams per cubic Carnegie Institution, the Smithsonian Insti- centimeter (for a relative comparison, the tution, Harvard University, the Universities density of water is about 1 gram per cubic of Arizona, Chicago, Texas at Austin, and

44 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 the universe is stranger than we thought

We have made huge progress in delineating a process of cosmic emergence, which we can trace back to a mysterious, hot, and dense beginning 13.8 billion years ago.

been a crescendo of progress and discovery, them–are orbited by retinues of planets, owed primarily to advancing instrumenta- like the Sun is. tion: more powerful telescopes, computers, These planets are not detected directly and space technology. but inferred by precise measurement of Unmanned probes to other planets have their parent star. One technique is very beamed back pictures of varied and dis- simple. From our vantage point, a star dims tinctive worlds: Venus, rendered torrid and slightly when a planet is “in transit” in uninhabitable by the greenhouse effect that front of it. An Earth-like planet transiting has poisoned its atmosphere; and Mars, with a Sun-like star causes a fractional dimming, its intricate geology, now being explored by recurring once per orbit, of one part in ten the Curiosity rover. Farther afield, we have thousand. Martin Rees fascinating close-ups of Jupiter’s moons: nasa’s Kepler spacecraft spent three Martin Rees is a Fellow of Trinity College and icy Europa and sulphurous Io. The European years monitoring the brightness of over one Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astro- probe Huygens has landed on Saturn’s giant hundred and fifty thousand stars, at least physics at the University of Cambridge. He holds moon Titan, revealing flowing rivers of liq- twice every hour, with this precision. It has determined the orbits of more than two the title of Astronomer Royal and is a Visiting uid ethane at -170 degrees Celsius. Astronomers aim not only to understand thousand planets, and allowed us to infer Professor at Imperial College London and at the solar system in which we live, but to their sizes from the depth of the dip during Leicester University. He was elected a Foreign trace back farther in our history–to under- transit. We are especially interested in pos- Honorary Member of the American Academy stand how stars and planets form, and from sible “twins” of our Earth: planets the same of Arts and Sciences in 1975. where their constituent atoms came. We size as ours, on orbits with temperatures have made huge progress in delineating a such that water neither boils nor stays fro- harles Darwin’s On the Origin of Spe- process of cosmic emergence, which we can zen. The best such candidate so far is one of C cies closes with these famous words: trace back to a mysterious, hot, and dense five planets orbiting a star half the mass of “Whilst this planet has gone cycling on beginning 13.8 billion years ago. the Sun (and much fainter). The outermost according to the fixed law of gravity, from But let’s start our cosmic exploration planet has 1.2 times the Earth’s radius, and it so simple a beginning endless forms most closer to home. And this leads to one of the orbits at a distance from the parent star such beautiful and most wonderful have been, great unknowns, which certainly would that liquid water might just exist. There may and are being, evolved.” have fascinated Darwin: what creatures be better candidates still to be retrieved But the young Earth–Darwin’s “sim- might be out there in space already? from the Kepler data. Moreover, Kepler has ple beginning”–was in fact already very Prospects for life look bleak in our solar only looked at a thousandth of the area of complicated, chemically and geologically. system–even on Mars or under the ice of the sky; so we would expect, after scanning Astronomers aim to probe back farther than Saturn’s moon Enceladus. But prospects it all, to find a candidate planet that is ten this beginning; to set our Earth in its vast brighten if we widen our horizons to other times closer and one hundred times less cosmic context and address basic questions stars–far beyond the reach of any probe faint than this one. like: How did planets such as ours form? we can now envisage. Indeed, a hot current The real goal, of course, is to see Earth- How did stars originate? Where did the topic in astronomy is the realization that like planets directly–not just their shad- atoms that make up planets and stars come many other stars–perhaps even most of ows. But that is hard. To realize just how from? Over the past few decades there has hard, suppose an alien astronomer with a

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 45 presentations

powerful telescope was viewing the Earth planets orbiting double-star systems, a rela- amorphous fireball. It might seem to violate from thirty light years away–the distance tionship that produces two “suns” in the a hallowed physical principle–the second of a nearby star. Our planet would seem to planet’s sky. But the existence of these plan- law of thermodynamics–which describes be, in Carl Sagan’s phrase, a “pale blue dot,” ets was not surprising given what we have an inexorable tendency for patterns and very close to a star (our Sun) that outshines learned about how stars form via the con- structure to decay or disperse. The answer it: like a firefly next to a searchlight. But if traction of clouds of dusty gas. If a proto- to this seeming paradox lies in the force of the aliens could detect this dot, there is a lot stellar cloud has any angular momentum, it gravity. Gravitating structures have a nega- they could infer. The shade of blue would will spin faster as it contracts and spin off tive specific heat. As they lose energy, they be slightly different, depending on whether a dusty disc around the protostar, in which get hotter. If the nuclear reactions that gen- the Pacific Ocean or the Eurasian land mass gas condenses and dust agglomerates into erate its power were switched off, the Sun would gradually contract, but in the process its center would get hotter: higher pressure We are especially interested in possible “twins” of would be needed to balance gravity as the our Earth: planets the same size as ours, on orbits Sun shrunk. In the expanding universe, gravity with temperatures such that water neither boils nor enhances, density contrasts. Any patch of stays frozen. the universe that starts off slightly denser than average would decelerate more because it feels extra gravity; its expansion lags far- was facing them (of course, also depending rocks and planets. We believe this to be a ther and farther behind, until it eventually on the global pattern of cloud cover). So the generic process in all protostars. stops expanding and separates out. Com- alien astronomers could infer the length of Flashback to Newton, who famously puter simulations of part of a “virtual uni- our “day,” the length of our seasons, the explained why planets move in ellipses, but verse” clearly show incipient structures gross topography, and the climate. By ana- did not understand why they were orbiting unfolding and evolving. Within the result- lyzing the faint light, they could infer that on roughly the same plane: the ecliptic. ing galaxy-scale clumps, gravity enhances the Earth had a biosphere. In the 2020s, Newton believed it was providence, but we the contrasts still further: gas is pulled in telescopes like the Giant Magellan Tele- now understand it as a natural outcome of and compressed into stars. Simulations of scope and its European counterpart, the formation from a dusty proto-stellar disc. this kind, displayed as movies, portray how Extremely Large Telescope (with a mirror 39 We have pushed back the causal chain far- galaxies emerged sixteen powers of ten meters across), will be drawing such infer- ther than Newton could. Indeed, as Wendy times faster than it actually happened! Each ences about planets the size of our Earth Freedman has adumbrated, we have pushed galaxy is an arena within which stars, plan- that orbit other Sun-like stars. it right back to the cosmos’s hot, dense ets, and perhaps life can emerge. Could there be life on these planets? Here beginning. We can trace cosmic history And there is one important point: the we are still in the realm of speculation. Even back to one second after the Big Bang, when initial irregularities fed into the computer if simple life is common, it is a separate the temperature was 1 MeV and helium models are not arbitrary; they are inferred question whether it is likely to evolve into and deuterium formed via nuclear fusion. from the observed fluctuations in the tem- anything we might recognize as intelligent Indeed we can probably be confident back perature of the cosmic microwave back- or complex–whether Darwin’s writ runs to a nanosecond after the Big Bang, when ground. The amplitude is only one part through the wider cosmos. Perhaps the cos- each particle had about 50 GeV of energy– in one hundred thousand, but computing mos teems with life; on the other hand, our as much as can be achieved in the Large forward, the fluctuations are amplified by Earth could be unique among the billions of Hadron Collider accelerator in Geneva. gravity into the conspicuous structures– planets that surely exist. Our complex cosmos today manifests a galaxies, galaxy clusters–in the present What has surprised people about these huge range of temperature and density– universe. This vindicates the claim that planetary systems is their great variety: from blazingly hot stars to the dark night structure emerges by clustering of the grav- Jupiter-mass planets very near their stars; sky. People sometimes worry about how itationally dominant dark matter during planets on extremely eccentric orbits; and this intricate complexity emerged from an cosmic expansion.

46 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 the universe is stranger than we thought

As I said, we can trace cosmic history back the horizon, we could all have avatars. Even exercise in counterfactual history (rather to a nanosecond after the Big Bang, when the conservative astronomers are confident that as historians speculate on what might have entire visible universe was squeezed to the the volume of space-time within range of our happened to America if the British had size of our solar system. But questions like telescopes–what astronomers have tradi- fought more competently in 1776, and biol- “where did the fluctuations come from?” tionally called “the universe”–is only a tiny ogists conjecture how our biosphere might and “why did the early universe contain the fraction of the aftermath of our Big Bang. have evolved if the dinosaurs had not been actual mix we observe of protons, photons, But that is not all. Plausible models for wiped out). and dark matter?” take us back to an even 1016 GeV physics lead to so-called eternal Anthropic arguments are irrelevant if younger universe, where matter was hugely inflation. “Our” Big Bang could be just one the constants are unique. Otherwise, they more compressed still. island of space-time in a vast cosmic archi- are the best explanation we will ever have. The physics at that era are of course still pelago. This is speculative physics–it is per- It is reminiscent of planetary science four conjectural. But an astonishingly bold the- plexing today, just as the shape of the Solar hundred years ago, even before Newton. ory called “inflation” suggests that the System was to Newton and the “Big Bang” At that time, Kepler thought that the Earth fluctuations could have been generated by was until fifty years ago. But it is physics, was unique, its orbit related to the other microscopic quantum fluctuations that are not metaphysics; we can hope to push the planets by beautiful mathematical ratios. stretched by the subsequent expansion right casual chain back farther still. We now realize that even within our own up to the scales of galaxies, and beyond. The So a challenge for twenty-first-century galaxy there are billions of stars, each with generic idea of inflation has achieved success physics is to address two fundamental ques- planetary systems. Earth’s orbit is special in predicting two features of the fluctuations: tions. First, are there many big bangs rather only insofar as it is in the range of radii and that they are Gaussian, and that their ampli- than just one? Second, if there are many, eccentricities compatible with life. Maybe tude depends on scale in a distinctive way. As are they all governed by the same physics or we are due for an analogous conceptual shift well as generating the density fluctuations that evolve into galaxies, quantum effects We now realize that even within our own galaxy could generate a second kind of fluctuation: gravitational waves that generate transverse there are billions of stars, each with planetary motions, without changing the density. Recent claims to have detected the latter systems. would, if confirmed, offer further support for “inflation”; their strength is an impor not? Many string theorists do not think so. on a far grander scale. Our Big Bang may not tant discriminant among different models. They think there could be a huge number be unique any more than planetary systems Now for another basic question: How of different vacuum states–arenas for dif- are. Its parameters may be “environmental much space is there altogether? How large ferent microphysics. If they are right, what accidents,” like the details of the Earth’s is physical reality? We can only see a finite we call “laws of nature” may in this grander orbit. The hope for neat explanations in cos- volume, a finite number of galaxies. That perspective be local bylaws governing our mology may be as vain as Kepler’s numero- is essentially because there is a horizon, a cosmic patch. Many patches could be still- logical quest. shell around us delineating the distance light born or sterile: the laws prevailing in them Mention of a multiverse often triggers the could have travelled since the Big Bang. But might not allow any kind of complexity. response that unobservable domains are not that shell has no more physical significance We therefore would not expect to find our- part of science. I want to contest this by way than the circle that delineates your horizon selves in a typical universe; rather, we would of aversion therapy, the psychological pro- if you are in the middle of the ocean. There be a typical member of the subset where an cess of increased exposure whereby you are, is no perceptible gradient across the visible observer could evolve. This is sometimes for example, at first presented with a spider universe, which suggests that, if finite and called anthropic selection. a long way away, but end up at ease even bounded, it stretches thousands of times Such conjectures motivate us to explore with tarantulas crawling over you. I men- farther. But that is just a minimum. If it what range of parameters would allow tioned that there are galaxies beyond our stretched far enough, then all combinatorial complexity to emerge. Those who are aller- horizon: in a decelerating universe, their possibilities would be repeated. Far beyond gic to multiverses can regard this just as an existence is untroublesome, since as the

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 47 presentations

This century may be a defining moment, for good or for ill. It is the first century when complex entities – technologically empowered humans – have mapped the cosmos and have begun to understand how they emerged. But it is also the first century where one species – ours – holds the Earth’s future in its hands, and could jeopardize life’s immense potential here and far beyond. universe’s expansion slows, they will even- unsolved because it is hard to elucidate the technologically empowered humans–have tually be observable. However, as Wendy complexities of Darwin’s “forms most won- mapped the cosmos and have begun to Freedman explained, we realize now that derful,” not because we do not understand understand how they emerged. But it is also these galaxies are accelerating away from subatomic physics well enough. the first century where one species–ours– us, which means that they will never in Now let’s focus back on the Earth. I have holds the Earth’s future in its hands, and principle be observable. But does that make lived my life among astronomers, and I could jeopardize life’s immense potential them any less “real”? They are the after- can assure you that their awareness of vast here and far beyond. math of “our” Big Bang. But since they will expanses of space and time does not make This pale blue dot in the cosmos is a spe- never be observable, why is their reality them more serene in everyday life. But there cial place. It may be a unique place. And we more acceptable than that of galaxies in the is one special perspective that astronomers are its stewards at a crucial era. That is a aftermaths of other big bangs (if there are can offer: an awareness of a vast future. The message for us all, whether we are interested other big bangs, which we, of course, do not stupendous time spans of the evolution- in astronomy or not. n know)? We will only take other big bangs ary past are now part of common culture. seriously if they are a prediction of a unified But most people still somehow think that © 2014 by Richard A. Meserve, Wendy theory that gains credibility by being “battle humans are the culmination of the evolu- Freedman, and Martin Rees, respectively tested” in other ways. tionary tree. That hardly seems credible to If there is a multiverse, it will take our astronomers. Copernican demotion one stage further: Our Sun formed 4.5 billion years ago To view or listen to the presentations, visit https://www.amacad.org/ our Big Bang may be one among billions. It and has 6 billion more years before its fuel universe. may disappoint some physicists if some of runs out. It will then flare up, engulfing the key numbers they are trying to explain the inner planets. The expanding universe turn out to be mere environmental contin- will continue–perhaps forever–destined gencies. But in compensation, we would to become ever colder, ever emptier. Any realize space and time were richly textured, creatures witnessing the Sun’s demise 6 but on a scale so vast that astronomers are billion years hence won’t be human–they not directly aware of it–not any more than will be as different from us as we are from a plankton whose “universe” was a spoon- a bug. Posthuman evolution–here on Earth ful of water would be aware of the world’s and far beyond–could be as prolonged as topography and biosphere. the Darwinian evolution that has led to us, The bedrock nature of space and time and could be even more wonderful. And, and the unification of cosmos and quan- of course, the evolution is even faster now: tum are surely among science’s great “open machines may take over. frontiers.” But calling this the quest for However, even in this concertinaed time- a “theory of everything” is hubristic and line–extending billions of years into the misleading. It is irrelevant to 99 percent future, as well as into the past–this century of scientists. Problems in biology and in may be a defining moment, for good or for ill. environmental and human sciences remain It is the first century when complex entities–

48 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 reflections

Intellectual Diversity and The Heart of the Matter

Reflections by Subra Suresh Subra Suresh is President of Carnegie Mellon University. He was elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2004.

he Heart of the Matter, the 2013 report prepared by the Amer- T ican Academy’s Commission on the Humanities and Social Sciences, offered many sound and inspiring ideas for guaran- teeing the vitality of the humanities and social sciences in the twenty-first-century United States. The report underscored how essential these disciplines are for literacy, citizenship, and quality of life in our nation. Echoing a core message of the report, I believe that the humanities and social sciences are essential if we are to solve the urgent social and environmental challenges now facing our world. In 2000, the National Academy of Engineering listed the greatest engineering achievements of the twentieth century, highlighting such revolutions as electrification, petroleum engineering, nuclear power, air travel, and the Internet. Then in 2004, it listed the four- teen “grand challenges” facing humanity in the twenty-first century, including making solar power economical, developing carbon sequestration methods, coping with infectious diseases, and securing infrastructure and privacy in cyberspace. I am struck by how many of the twenty-first century’s challenges could be viewed as ernments and media to provide much earlier warnings to people direct, but unintended, consequences of the twentieth century’s living in the storms’ paths. Yet despite such advances, every year achievements: the progress in petroleum engineering requires us dozens of Americans and hundreds of others around the world to deal with the serious issues of global change that require carbon die in tornadoes and hurricanes; people miss the warnings, or sequestration and solar power; the Internet brought many benefits, are confused about what to do, or they simply refuse to follow but also opened the door for cyberterrorism; jet travel enables us instructions to avoid danger. Machines alone cannot save these to connect with one another in an increasingly globalized world, lives. The human factor diminishes the weight of even the most but also allows viruses to spread rapidly around the planet, posing powerful technological achievement; we have seen this over and a serious public health threat to humans and other species. over again. What can we learn from the unintended consequences of the last Researchers are recognizing and adapting to this understanding. century’s greatest engineering achievements while we confront the At Carnegie Mellon’s College of Engineering, for example, there is a engineering grand challenges of the twenty-first century? In creat- department of Engineering and Public Policy that integrates a wide ing, deploying, and scaling technologies, we did not anticipate and range of disciplines into solving what seem like purely technical sufficiently allow for the human factor and the human condition issues. At our School of Computer Science, there is a stand-alone as much as we should have. We failed to anticipate what human “Human-Computer Interaction” department that focuses on prob- beings would do with new capabilities, how they would deliber- lems at the intersection of computing and human behavior, including ately or accidentally adapt their capacities in destructive ways. learning technologies. Increasingly, research funders are designing Consider one example of the human factor’s influence: the programs for intellectually diverse teams: they have seen the impres- National Science Foundation, which I directed from 2010 to 2013, sive results achieved when engineers and scientists work with those funded many projects to better track severe storms and weather who study behavioral sciences, health care, decision-making, eco- events such as tornadoes and hurricanes. Scientists have made nomics, design, architecture, and visual arts. Tapping into the collec- immense progress over the past several decades in predicting the tive wisdom of literature, history, and art is another means of gaining size, strength, and timing of these major storms, enabling gov- insight about human capacities and desires.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 49 reflections

There is increasing recognition that the planet’s most severe problems cannot be treated as if they are solvable only by great engineering and scientific solutions. AsThe Heart of the Matter recognizes, the social sciences and humanities hold a key to our innovation ecosystem that will enable us to make more rapid progress in addressing major challenges.

We need culturally diverse teams, too, and–especially impor tant in information technology–teams with diversity of age. In my experience in research, diverse teams work faster and have improved outcomes because they can correct one another’s biases and hidden assumptions in a way that more homogeneous teams never will. There is increasing recognition that the planet’s most severe problems cannot be treated as if they are solvable only by great engineering and scientific solutions. AsThe Heart of the Matter recognizes, the social sciences and humanities hold a key to our innovation ecosystem that will enable us to make more rapid progress in addressing major challenges. It is likely that the next decades will introduce a cascade of powerful new technologies to our nation; now is the time to continue and expand support for those humanistic disciplines that will allow us to understand the incentives and responses that will shape the ways in which human beings will use and abuse these new capacities in intended and unintended ways. In this way we can also better anticipate how new technologies will affect the environmental quality– air, water, land, and biodiversity–of our planet, as well as how they will shape nations, communities, families, and individuals. Support for such deep intellectual diversity is truly at the heart of the matter for any educational and research activity today. n

50 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 noteworthy

Select Prizes Emery N. Brown (Massachusetts Wendy Freedman (Carnegie Insti- Michael J. Hopkins (Harvard Institute of Technology; Massa- tution for Science) received a Doc- University) is the recipient of the and Awards chusetts General Hospital; Har- tor of Science honorary degree 2014 Frederic Esser Nemmers vard Medical School) was elected from the University of Chicago. Prize in Mathematics. Bruce Alberts (University of a member of the National Acad- Susan Gal (University of Chi- Anthony Ives (University of Wis- California, San Francisco) was emy of Sciences. cago) received a Faculty Award consin-Madison) received a Kel- awarded a 2014 Centennial Medal John Seely Brown (University for Excellence in Graduate Teach- lett Mid-Career Award from the from Harvard University Gradu- of Southern California; Deloitte ing and Mentoring from the Uni- University of Wisconsin-Madison. ate School of Arts and Sciences. Center for Edge Innovation) versity of Chicago. Thomas Jessell (Columbia Uni- Victor Ambros (University of received a Doctor of Science hon- Gary Glatzmaier (University of Cal- versity) received the 2014 Gruber Massachusetts Medical School) orary degree from Bates College. ifornia, Santa Cruz) was awarded Neuroscience Prize. received the 2014 Gruber Genet- Stephen L. Buchwald (Massachu- the 2014 John Adam Fleming Medal ics Prize. He shares the prize with setts Institute of Technology) is the from the American Geophysical Daniel Kahneman (Princeton Gary Ruvkun (Massachusetts recipient of the 2014 Linus Pauling Union. University) received a Doctor of General Hospital; Harvard Medi- Medal Award from the American Social Science honorary degree cal School) and David Baulcombe Chemical Society. Jeffrey I. Gordon (Washington from Yale University. (University of Cambridge). University in St. Louis) is the recip- Hal Caswell (Woods Hole Ocean- ient of the 2014 Passsano Founda- Andrew H. Knoll (Harvard Uni- Mark Aronoff (Stony Brook Uni- ographic Institution) received tion Award. He also received a versity) received a Doctor of Sci- versity, State University of New the 2014 Mindel C. Sheps Award Doctor of Science honorary degree ence honorary degree from the York) received a 2014 John Simon from the Population Association from the University of Chicago. University of Chicago. Guggenheim Fellowship. of America. Robert J. Gordon (Northwest- Jon A. Krosnick (Stanford Uni- Jacqueline K. Barton (California Shu Chien (University of Califor- ern University) has been named versity) received the 2014 aapor Institute of Technology) received nia, San Diego) received the 2014 a Distinguished Fellow of the Award from the American Associ- the 2015 Priestley Medal from the Roger Revelle Medal, given by American Economic Association. ation of Public Opinion Research. American Chemical Society. the University of California, San Peter Gourevitch (University of Thorne Lay (University of Cali- Bonnie Bassler (Princeton Uni- Diego. California, San Diego) received fornia, Santa Cruz) was awarded versity) received a Phi Beta Kappa Sallie Chisholm (Massachusetts the 2014 Roger Revelle Medal, the 2014 Inge Lehmann Medal Award for Excellence in Under- Institute of Technology) was named given by the University of Cali- from the American Geophysical graduate Teaching. the 2014 recipient of the James R. fornia, San Diego. Union. Kamaljit Bawa (Ashoka Trust; Uni- Killian Jr. Faculty Achievement Adolf Grünbaum (University of Jill Lepore (Harvard University; versity of Massachusetts) received Award, given by mit. Pittsburgh) received the Great The New Yorker) received a 2014 John a Doctor of Science honorary degree Keith Christiansen (Metropoli- Federal Merit Cross from the Simon Guggenheim Fellowship. from the University of Alberta. tan Museum of Art) was awarded German government. He was also Jonathan Levin (Stanford Univer- Anthony Bebbington (Clark Uni- a 2014 Centennial Medal from awarded an Honorary Doctorate sity) received a 2014 John Simon versity) received a 2014 John Simon Harvard University Graduate of Philosophy from the Univer- Guggenheim Fellowship. Guggenheim Fellowship. School of Arts and Sciences. sity of Cologne. Andrei D. Linde (Stanford Uni- Timothy Berners-Lee (World Wide Scott Cowen (Tulane University) Alan H. Guth (Massachusetts Insti- versity) was awarded a 2014 Kavli Web Consortium; Massachusetts received the tiaa-cref The- tute of Technology) was awarded a Prize in Astrophysics. He shares Institute of Technology) received odore M. Hesburgh Award for 2014 Kavli Prize in Astrophysics. the prize with Alan H. Guth (Mas- a Doctor of Engineering and Tech- Leadership Excellence in Higher He shares the prize with Andrei sachusetts Institute of Technology) nology honorary degree from Yale Education. D. Linde (Stanford University) and Alexei A. Starobinsky (Landau University. and Alexei A. Starobinsky (Landau Thomas Crow (New York Uni- Institute for Theoretical Physics, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences). Michael Blackwood (Michael Black- versity) received a 2014 John Russian Academy of Sciences). wood Productions) received a 2014 Simon Guggenheim Fellowship. George Lusztig (Massachusetts Arts and Letters Award in Architec- Ray A. Hammond (Bethel Afri- Daniel Diermeier (Northwestern Institute of Technology) was ture from the American Academy of can Methodist Episcopal Church) University) received a 2014 John awarded the 2014 Shaw Prize in Arts and Letters. received a Doctor of Humane Mathematical Sciences. Simon Guggenheim Fellowship. Letters honorary degree from the Michael Bloomberg (Bloomberg Rita Dove (University of Vir- University of Notre Dame. Penelope Maddy (University lp) received a Doctor of Laws ginia) received a Doctor of Let- of California, Irvine) has been honorary degree from Harvard Herbie Hancock (Los Angeles, ters honorary degree from Yale named Phi Beta Kappa Romanell University. He was also awarded California) received the Lifetime University. Professor. an inaugural Genesis Prize. Achievement in Jazz Award from William A. Eaton (National Insti- the Jazz Journalists Association. Grigoriy Margulis (Yale Univer- Rodney Brooks (Massachusetts tute of Diabetes and Digestive sity) received a Doctor of Science Institute of Technology; Rethink Larry Hedges (Northwestern and Kidney Diseases, National honorary degree from the Univer- Robotics, Inc.) is the recipient of University) received the aera Institutes of Health) received a sity of Chicago. the 2014 Engelberger Award for Presidential Citation for Research Distinguished Graduate Award Leadership. Excellence from the American from the University of Pennsyl- Education Research Association. vania School of Medicine.

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 51 noteworthy

Tobin Marks (Northwestern Uni- John B. Pendry (Imperial Col- Philip Roth (New York, New Susan Stewart (Princeton Univer- versity) is the 2014 recipient of the lege London) was awarded a 2014 York) received a Yaddo Artist sity) received the Howard T. Behr Sir Geoffrey Wilkinson Award from Kavli Prize in Nanoscience. He Medal. man Award for Distinguished the Royal Society of Chemistry. shares the prize with Thomas Achievement in the Humanities, W. Ebbesen (Université de Stras- Gary Ruvkun (Massachusetts given by Princeton University. Carolyn “Biddy” Martin (Amherst bourg, France) and Stefan W. Hell General Hospital; Harvard Medi- College) received a Doctor of Laws (Max Planck Institute for Bio- cal School) received the 2014 Gru- Bruce Stillman (Cold Spring Har- honorary degree from the Univer- physical Chemistry, Germany). ber Genetics Prize. He shares the bor Laboratory) is the recipient sity of North Carolina at Chapel prize with Victor Ambros (Uni- of the American Society for Bio- Hill. Marjorie Perloff (Stanford Uni- versity of Massachusetts Medical chemistry and Molecular Biol- versity) is the 2014 recipient of School) and David Baulcombe ogy’s Herbert Tabor Research Leo Marx (Massachusetts Insti- Washington University’s Inter- (University of Cambridge). Award. tute of Technology) was awarded national Humanities Medal. a 2014 Centennial Medal from Haun Saussy (University of Chi- Galen Stucky (University of Cali- Harvard University Graduate Monika Piazzesi (Stanford Uni- cago) received a 2014 John Simon fornia, Santa Barbara) received the School of Arts and Sciences. versity) received a 2014 John Guggenheim Fellowship. 2014 Prince of Asturias Award for Simon Guggenheim Fellowship. Technical and Scientific Research. Susan K. McConnell (Stanford Anne Firor Scott (Duke Uni- University) has been named a Joseph Polchinski (University of versity) received a Doctor of David F. Swensen (Yale Uni- Howard Hughes Medical Institute California, Santa Barbara) was Humane Letters honorary degree versity) received a Doctor of Professor. named the 59th Annual Faculty from the University of North Car- Humane Letters honorary degree Research Lecturer at the Univer- olina at Chapel Hill. from Yale University. Jerrold Meinwald (Cornell Uni- sity of California, Santa Barbara. versity) was awarded the 2014 David N. Seidman (Northwestern Terence Tao (University of Cali- Nakanishi Prize by the Chemical Joseph W. Polisi (The Juilliard University) was elected a Fellow fornia, Los Angeles) was awarded Society of Japan. School) received a Doctor of of the American Association for a Breakthrough Prize in Mathe- Music honorary degree from Yale the Advancement of Science; was matics. H. Jay Melosh (Purdue Univer- University. awarded a 2014 aime-tms Hon- sity) is the 2014 recipient of the orary Membership; and is the Richard Taylor (Institute for Herbert Newby McCoy Award, Emily Rauh Pulitzer (The Pulitzer 2015 asm International Edward Advanced Study) was awarded given by Purdue University. Foundation for the Arts) received DeMille Campbell Memorial a Breakthrough Prize in Mathe- a 2014 Harvard Medal from the Lecturer. matics. Elliot M. Meyerowitz (California Harvard Alumni Association. Institute of Technology) received Richard B. Silverman (North- Eugene Ulrich (University of a Doctor of Science honorary Marcus E. Raichle (Washing- western University) received the Notre Dame) was awarded a neh degree from Yale University. ton University in St. Louis) was Northwestern University Trustee Fellowship. awarded a 2014 Kavli Prize in Brenda Milner (McGill Univer- Medal for Faculty Innovation and Alexander Varshavsky (Califor- Neuroscience. He shares the prize Entrepreneurship. sity) was awarded a 2014 Kavli with Brenda Milner (McGill Uni- nia Institute of Technology) is Prize in Neuroscience. She shares versity) and John O’Keefe (Uni- Charles Simic (University of New the recipient of the 2014 Albany the prize with John O’Keefe versity College London). Hampshire) received the 2014 Medical Center Prize in Medicine (University College London) and Zbigniew Herbert International and Biomedical Research. Marcus E. Raichle (Washington Peter Raven (Missouri Botanical Literary Award. University in St. Louis). Garden; Washington University David Walt (Tufts University) in St. Louis) received a Doctor Paul Simon (New York, New received the Esselen Award for Jeffrey S. Moore (University of of Science honorary degree from York) received a 2014 nyu Stein- Chemistry in Public Interest from Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) Harvard University. hardt Vision Award. the Northeastern Section of the has been named a Howard Hughes American Chemical Society. Medical Institute Professor. Alfred G. Redfield (Brandeis Uni- Seymour Slive (Harvard Univer- versity) is the recipient of the sity) received a Doctor of Arts Peter Walter (University of Richard G. M. Morris (University 2015 Pittsburgh Spectroscopy honorary degree from Harvard California, San Francisco) was of Edinburgh) was awarded the Award, given by the Spectroscopy University. awarded the 2014 Shaw Prize in 2013 Fondation Ipsen Prize for Society of Pittsburgh. Life Science and Medicine. He Neuronal Plasticity; was elected David L. Spector (Cold Spring shares the prize with Kazutoshi to the European Molecular Biol- Giacomo Rizzolatti (Università Harbor Laboratory) was elected Mori (Kyoto University, Japan). ogy Organization; and received degli Studi di Parma, Italy) was to the European Molecular Biol- the Royal Medal of the Royal awarded the 2014 Grete Lundbeck ogy Organization. Hayden V. White (University of Society of Edinburgh. European Brain Research Prize. California, San Cruz) received a He shares the prize with Stanis- Ralph Stanley (Coeburn, Vir- Doctor of Humane Letters hon- Andrew Murray (Harvard Uni- las Dehaene (Collège de France, ginia) received a Doctor of Music orary degree from Wesleyan Uni- versity) has been named a How- Paris) and Trevor Robbins (Uni- honorary degree from Yale Uni- versity. ard Hughes Medical Institute versity of Cambridge). versity. Professor. Fred Wudl (University of Cali- Richard Rosenberg (Bank of Donald F. Steiner (University of fornia, Santa Barbara) received Barbara Partee (University of Mas- America) received a 2014 ucsf Chicago) is the recipient of a 2014 the 2014 Spiers Memorial Award, sachusetts) received a Doctor of Medal for Advancing Health University of Chicago Alumni given by the Royal Society of Humane Letters honorary degree Worldwide. Medal. Chemistry. from the University of Chicago.

52 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014

Richard Zeckhauser (Harvard Persis Drell (Stanford Univer- Margaret Levi (Center for Twyla Tharp (Twyla Tharp Dance University) has been named sity) has been named Dean of Advanced Study in Behavioral Company) has been appointed to a Distinguished Fellow of the the Stanford University School of Sciences, Stanford University) the Board of Trustees of Barnard American Economic Association. Engineering. has been appointed to the Board College. of Trustees of the Institute for Ahmed H. Zewail (California Stanley Fischer (U.S. Federal Advanced Study. Elizabeth Thompson (University Institute of Technology) received Reserve System) has been con- of Washington) has been elected a Doctor of Science honorary firmed by the U.S. Senate to serve Jane Lubchenco (Oregon State President-Elect of the Interna- degree from Yale University. as Vice Chairman at the Federal University) has been elected to tional Biometric Society. Reserve. Harvard University’s Board of Overseers. Shirley Tilghman (Princeton Uni- Joseph S. Francisco (Purdue Uni- versity) has been appointed to the New Appointments versity) has been named Dean of John Maunsell (University of Chi- Board of Trustees of the Institute the College of Arts and Sciences cago) has been appointed inaugural for Advanced Study. Danielle Allen (Institute for at the University of Nebraska- Director of the Grossman Institute Lincoln. for Neuroscience, Quantitative J. Craig Venter (J. Craig Venter Advanced Study) has been elected Institute) has been appointed to Chair of the Pulitzer Prize Board. Biology, and Human Behavior at Alice Gast (Lehigh University) the University of Chicago. the Board of Directors of myos Susan Athey (Stanford Univer- has been named President of Corporation. Imperial College London. Sabeeha Merchant (University sity) was named to the Board of Clifford M. Will (University of Directors of Ripple Labs. of California, Los Angeles) has Laura Greene (University of been appointed Director of the Florida) has been appointed to a Dean Baquet (The New York Times) Illinois) has been elected to the ucla-Department of Energy second term as Editor-in-Chief of was named Executive Editor of presidential line of the American (ucla-doe) Institute. the journal Classical and Quantum The New York Times. Physical Society and will serve Gravity. successive one-year terms as vice Cherry Murray (Harvard Univer- Rodney Brooks (Massachusetts president, president-elect, presi- sity) was named to the Board of Institute of Technology; Rethink dent, and past president. Directors of Newport Corporation. Robotics, Inc.) has been appointed Select Publications to the Visiting Committee on Bryan Grenfell (Princeton Uni- Maurice Obstfeld (University of versity) has been appointed to the California, Berkeley) has been Advanced Technology of the Fiction National Institute of Standards Board of Governors of the Well- named to the White House Coun- come Trust. cil of Economic Advisors. and Technology. James Carroll (Boston, Mas- Lord Browne of Madingley Mark Groudine (Fred Hutchin- Jerrold Olefsky (University of sachusetts). Warburg in Rome: A (Royal Academy of Engineering) son Cancer Research Center) has California, San Diego) has been Novel. Houghton Mifflin Har- has been reappointed Chairman been named Interim President appointed to the Scientific Advi- court, July 2014 of the Tate Gallery’s Board of and Director of the Fred Hutchin- sory Board of AntriaBio, Inc. son Cancer Research Center. Jane Smiley (New York, New Trustees. Eric Olson (University of Texas York). Some Luck. Knopf, October Edward G. Carmines (Indiana Robert M. Groves (Georgetown Southwestern Medical Center) 2014 University) has been named to has been named Director of the University) has been appointed Paul Theroux (East Sandwich, President of the Midwest Political the National Science Board of the Hamon Center for Regenerative National Science Foundation. Science and Medicine. Massachusetts). Mr. Bones: Twenty Science Association. Stories. Houghton Mifflin Har- Thomas D. Cook (Northwestern Frances Hellman (University of Edward Penhoet (Alta Partners) court, September 2014 University) was appointed to California, Berkeley) has been has been appointed to the Board appointed Dean of the Division of Directors of aTyr Pharma. Mathematica Policy Research as Nonfiction a Senior Fellow. of Mathematical and Physical Sciences in the College of Letters Peter Rossky (University of Texas France Córdova (National Sci- and Science at the University of at Austin) has been named Dean Robert B. Brandom (University ence Foundation) was confirmed California, Berkeley. of Rice University’s Wiess School of Pittsburgh). From Empiricism to as Director of the National Sci- of Natural Sciences. Expressivism. Harvard University ence Foundation. James Jackson (University of Press, December 2014 Michigan) has been named to Ruth Simmons (Brown Univer- Pierre Corvol (Collège de France) the National Science Board of the sity) was elected to the Board of Ken Burns (Florentine Films) and was appointed Chairman of the National Science Foundation. Trustees of Rice University. Geoffrey C. Ward (New York, New York). The Roosevelts: An Inti- Scientific Advisory Board of Michael Sipser (Massachusetts William Chester Jordan (Prince- mate History. Knopf, September Quantum Genomics. Institute of Technology) has been ton University) has been elected 2014 Daniel Diermeier (Northwestern President of the Medieval Acad- named Dean of the School of Sci- University) has been appointed emy of America. ence at the Massachusetts Insti- David Card (University of Cal- Dean of the Harris School of Pub- tute of Technology. ifornia, Berkeley) and Steven Raphael (University of Califor- lic Policy Studies at the Univer- Rogers Smith (University of Penn- nia, Berkeley), eds. Immigration, sity of Chicago. sylvania) has been appointed Asso- Poverty, and Socioeconomic Inequal- ciate Dean for the Social Sciences ity. Russell Sage Foundation, July at the University of Pennsylvania. 2013

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 53 noteworthy

Hillary Rodham Clinton (Bill, Peter R. Grant (Princeton Uni- Sheldon Pollock (Columbia Uni- Jan M. Ziolkowski (Harvard Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foun- versity) and B. Rosemary Grant versity), Benjamin A. Elman (Princ- University), ed. Dante and the dation). Hard Choices. Simon & (Princeton University). 40 Years eton University), and Ku-ming Greeks. Harvard University Press, Schuster, June 2014 of Evolution: Darwin’s Finches on Kevin Chang (Academia Sinica), December 2014 Daphne Major Island. Princeton eds. World Philology. Harvard Uni- Scott Cowen (Tulane University). University Press, April 2014 versity Press, December 2014 The Inevitable City: The Resurgence of New Orleans and the Future of Urban Ellen T. Harris (Massachusetts Richard Rose (University of Exhibitions America. Palgrave Macmillan, June Institute of Technology). George Strathclyde, Glasgow). Learning 2014 Frideric Handel: A Life with Friends. about Politics in Time and Space: A Jeff Koons (New York, New W.W. Norton, September 2014 Memoir. ecpr Press, January 2014 Thomas Crow (New York Uni- York). Jeff Koons: A Retrospective at versity). The Long March of Pop: Frances Kamm (Harvard Univer- Frederick Schauer (University of the Whitney Museum of Ameri- Art, Music, and Design, 1930–1995. sity). Bioethical Prescriptions: To Cre- Virginia). The Force of Law. Har- can Art, June 27-October 19, 2014 Yale University Press, October ate, End, Choose, and Improve Lives. vard University Press, January Bill Viola (Bill Viola Studio). 2014 Oxford University Press, Novem- 2015 Exhibit at the Grand Palais in ber 2013 Robert Darnton (Harvard Uni- Ian Shapiro (Yale University) Paris, March 5-July 21, 2014. versity). Censors at Work: How States George Kateb (Princeton Uni- and Jane E. Calvert (University Shaped Literature. W.W. Norton, versity). Lincoln’s Political Thought. of Kentucky), eds. Selected Writings September 2014 Harvard University Press, Decem- of Thomas Paine. Yale University Films ber 2014 Press, September 2014 Jenny Davidson (Columbia Univer- sity; Visiting Scholar, 2005–2006). Philip Kitcher (Columbia Univer- Theodore E. Stebbins Jr. (Har- Ken Burns (Florentine Films). Reading Style: A Life in Sentences. sity). Life After Faith: The Case for vard University) and Melissa The Roosevelts: An Intimate History. Columbia University Press, June Secular Humanism. Yale University Renn (Harvard University). Amer- pbs, September 2014 2014 Press, October 2014 ican Paintings at Harvard: Volume 1: Paintings, Watercolors, and Pastels by Ruth DeFries (Columbia Univer- A. A. Long (University of Cali- Artists Born before 1826. Harvard Art sity). The Big Ratchet: How Human- fornia, Berkeley). Greek Models of Museums/Yale University Press, We invite all Fellows and ity Thrives in the Face of Natural Crisis. Mind and Self. Harvard University December 2014 Basic Books, September 2014 Press, November 2014 Foreign Honorary Members Steve J. Stern (University of Wis- to send notices about their Richard S. Dunn (University Jerome McGann (University of consin-Madison) and Scott Straus recent and forthcoming pub of Pennsylvania). A Tale of Two Virginia). The Poet Edgar Allan Poe: (University of Wisconsin-Madi- lications, scienti½c ½ndings, Plantations: Slave Life and Labor in Alien Angel. Harvard University son), eds. The Human Rights Para- exhibitions and performances, Jamaica and Virginia. Harvard Uni- Press, October 2014 dox: Universality and its Discontents. and honors and prizes to versity Press, November 2014 Bernard McGinn (University of University of Wisconsin Press, bulletin@amacad.org. n Barry Eichengreen (University Chicago Divinity School). Thomas April 2014 of California, Berkeley), Won- Aquinas’s Summa Theologiae: A Elizabeth Warren (U.S. Senate). hyuk Lim (Korean Development Biography. Princeton University A Fighting Chance. Metropolitan Institute), Yung Chul Park (Korea Press, June 2014 Books, April 2014 University), and Dwight H. Per- kins (Harvard University). The James M. McPherson (Princeton Clifford M. Will (University of Korean Economy: From a Miraculous University). Embattled Rebel: Jef- Florida) and Eric Poisson (Uni- Past to a Sustainable Future. Harvard ferson Davis as Commander in Chief. versity of Guelph). Gravity: New- University Press, December 2014 Penguin Press, October 2014 tonian, Post-Newtonian, Relativistic. Jessye Norman (New York, New Cambridge University Press, May Renée C. Fox (University of Penn- 2014 sylvania). Doctors Without Borders: York). Stand Up Straight and Sing! Humanitarian Quests, Impossible Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, May Edward O. Wilson (Harvard Uni- Dreams of Médecins Sans Frontières. 2014 versity). The Meaning of Human Johns Hopkins University Press, Orlando Patterson (Harvard Uni- Existence. W.W. Norton/Liveright, April 2014 versity), ed. The Cultural Matrix: October 2014 Henry Louis Gates, Jr. (Harvard Understanding Black Youth. Harvard Allen W. Wood (Indiana Univer- University) and David Bindman University Press, January 2015 sity) and Dieter Schönecker (Uni- (University College London), Carl Phillips (Washington Uni- versität Siegen). Immanuel Kant’s eds. The Image of the Black in Western versity in St. Louis). The Art of Groundwork for the Metaphysics Art: The Twentieth Century: The Rise Daring: Risk, Restlessness, Imagina- of Morals. Harvard University of Black Artists. Harvard University tion. Graywolf Press, August 2014 Press, December 2014 Press, October 2014 Steven Pinker (Harvard Univer- Robert Wuthnow (Princeton Uni- Owen Gingerich (Harvard Uni- sity). The Sense of Style: The Think- versity). Rough Country: How Texas versity). God’s Planet. Harvard ing Person’s Guide to Writing in the 21st Became America’s Most Powerful University Press, October 2014 Century. Viking, September 2014 Bible-Belt State. Princeton Univer- sity Press, August 2014

54 Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 Remembrance

It is with sadness that the Academy notes the passing of the following Members.*

Anatole Abragam–June 8, 2011; elected in 1974 Robert Lewis Letsinger–May 25, 2014; elected in 1988 Morris Albert Adelman–May 8, 2014; elected in 1956 William Lloyd MacDonald–March 6, 2010; elected in 1995 Francis Alfred Allen–April 6, 2007; elected in 1975 Thomas Francis Malone–July 6, 2013; elected in 1979 David Malet Armstrong–May 13, 2014; elected in 2008 Juan Marichal–August 8, 2010; elected in 1965 Gary Stanley Becker–May 3, 2014; elected in 1972 Peter Robert Marler–July 5, 2014; elected in 1970 James MacGregor Burns–July 15, 2014; elected in 2003 Peter Matthiessen–April 5, 2014; elected in 1991 Arland Frederick Christ-Janer–November 9, 2008; Grigori Mints–May 29, 2014; elected in 2010 elected in 1968 John L. Moll–July 19, 2011; elected in 1992 Dorrit Cohn–March 10, 2012; elected in 2000 Irwin Oppenheim–June 3, 2014; elected in 1970 Bryce Low Crawford, Jr.–September 16, 2011; elected in 1977 David Francis Pears–July 1, 2009; elected in 1996 Gerald Maurice Edelman–May 17, 2014; elected in 1968 Jean Joseph Francois Perrot–December 26, 2012; Robert F. Erburu–May 11, 2014; elected in 1991 elected in 1967 Richard N. Frye–March 27, 2014; elected in 1958 Ashoka Jahnavi Prasad, Jr.–January 30, 2001; elected in 1972 Robert Grosvenor Gardner–June 21, 2014; elected in 1964 Arnold Seymour Relman–June 17, 2014; elected in 1965 Peter Thomas Geach–December 21, 2013; elected in 1986 Lloyd George Richards–June 29, 2006; elected in 1986 Creighton Eddy Gilbert–April 6, 2011; elected in 1964 Paul Gillan Risser–July 10, 2014; elected in 1994 Melvin Jacob Glimcher–May 12, 2014; elected in 1962 John Max Rosenfield–December 16, 2013; elected in 1971 Nadine Gordimer–July 13, 2014; elected in 1980 Israel Scheffler–February 16, 2014; elected in 1971 Robert McQueen Grant–June 10, 2014; elected in 1981 Jarvis Edwin Seegmiller–May 31, 2006; elected in 1982 Jerome Gross–January 27, 2014; elected in 1966 Seymour Slive–June 14, 2014; elected in 1964 Allen Richard Grossman–June 27, 2014; elected in 1993 Eugene Nikolaievich Sokolov–May 14, 2008; elected in 1976 Evelyn Byrd Harrison–November 3, 2012; elected in 1973 Albert Alan Townsend–August 31, 2010; elected in 1975 George Harry Heilmeier–April 21, 2014; elected in 1995 Richard Henry Ullman–March 11, 2014; elected in 1974 James Higginbotham–April 25, 2014; elected in 2011 Hans-Ulrich Wehler–July 7, 2014; elected in 2006 Nagayo Homma–September 15, 2012; elected in 1996 Arthur Strong Wightman–January 13, 2013; elected in 1966 Michael Kasha–June 13, 2013; elected in 1963 Bruno Zumino–June 22, 2014; elected in 1984 Malcolm Daniel Lane–April 10, 2014; elected in 1982

*Notice received from March 27, 2014, to July 15, 2014

Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, Summer 2014 55 Ways of Giving to the American Academy of Arts & Sciences

Gifts and grants from members, other individuals, foundations, corporations, businesses, and a group of fifty-nine University Affiliates support the Academy’s work. Contributions may be made in a variety of ways.

Gifts of Cash and Securities The Academy benefits most directly from gifts of cash and securities, which may be unrestricted, directed toward specific initiatives, or designated for the endowment. Gifts of appreciated securities may provide special tax incentives to donors. Annual Fund gifts can now be made online at www.amacad.org (click on Contribute).

Donor-Advised Funds Gifts through donor-advised funds (daf) provide convenience and tax benefits to donors. daf gifts, unrestricted and restricted, may be made directly from your sponsoring organization or online (visit the Academy’s website at www.amacad.org and click on Contribute, then on daf Direct to see if your sponsoring organization participates in online giving).

Bequests Bequests from Fellows and their spouses helped to create and build the Academy’s endowment. Today, bequests continue this tradition and provide support for new initiatives, projects, and studies. Provision for including the Academy in an estate plan may be made in a new will, in a codicil to an existing will, or through trusts.

Other Planned Gifts and Naming Opportunities Please contact the Development Office for additional information about planned gifts and naming opportunities, including life-income gifts and gifts of appreciated property.

For assistance in making a gift to the Academy please call 617-576-5057. Norton’s Woods, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma 02138 telephone 617-576-5000, facsimile 617-576-5050, email [email protected], website www.amacad.org board of directors Bulletin Summer 2014 Issued as Volume lxvii, No. 4 Don M. Randel, Chair of the Board © 2014 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Jonathan F. Fanton, President Diane P. Wood, Chair of the Council; Vice Chair of the Board The Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences (issn 0002–712X) is published quarterly by the American Alan M. Dachs, Chair of the Trust; Vice Chair of the Board Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, Jerrold Meinwald, Secretary MA 02138. Periodicals rate postage paid at Boston, MA, and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send Carl H. Pforzheimer III, Treasurer address changes to Bulletin, American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Nancy C. Andrews The views expressed in the Bulletin are those held by each David B. Frohnmayer contributor and are not necessarily those of the Board Helene L. Kaplan of Directors and Members of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. Nannerl O. Keohane Roger B. Myerson photo credits Venkatesh Narayanamurti Wendy Barrows pages 13–15 Pauline Yu Martha Stewart pages 17, 19, 21, 23, 25–27 Louis W. Cabot, Chair Emeritus Gail Oskin pages 33–36, 38 publications advisory board Imijination Photography pages 40–41, 45 Carnegie Mellon University page 49 Jerrold Meinwald and John Mark Hansen, Cochairs; Jesse H. Choper, Denis Donoghue, Gerald L. Early, Carol Gluck, Sibyl Golden, Linda Greenhouse, John Hildebrand, Jerome Kagan, Philip Khoury, Steven Marcus, Eric J. Sundquist, Don M. Randel (ex officio), Jonathan F. Fanton (ex officio), Diane P. Wood (ex officio) editorial staff Phyllis S. Bendell, Director of Publications Peter Walton, Assistant Editor Emma Goldhammer, Senior Editorial Assistant Scott Raymond, Layout & Design american academy of arts & sciences Norton’s Woods 136 Irving Street Cambridge, ma 02138-1996 usa telephone 617-576-5000 facsimile 617-576-5050 email aaas @ amacad . org website www . amacad . org