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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Fintech, Racial Equity, and an Inclusive Financial System
Volume 15 , Issue 2, Summer 2021 Community Development INNOVATION REVIEW Fintech, Racial Equity, and an Inclusive Financial System Community Development INNOVATION REVIEW The Community Development Innovation Review focuses on bridging the gap between theory and practice, from as many viewpoints as possible. The goal of this journal is to promote cross-sector dialogue around a range of emerging issues and related investments that advance economic resilience and mobility for low- and moderate-income communities. For submission guidelines and themes of upcoming issues, or other inquiries and subscription requests, contact [email protected]. The material herein may not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System. Community Development Innovation Review Issue Editorial Team Bina Patel Shrimali Co-Editor Rocio Sanchez-Moyano Co-Editor Kaitlin Asrow Guest Issue Editor Sean Creehan Guest Issue Editor Genevieve Melford Guest Issue Editor Tim Shaw Guest Issue Editor Mackenzie Wallace Guest Issue Editor Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. 2021. “Fintech, Racial Equity, and an Inclusive Financial System,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Community Development Innovation Review 2021-2. Available at https://doi.org/10.24148/cdir2021-02 Table of Contents Foreword ...........................................................................................................................................................5 Laura Choi, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Ida -
European Union Law Working Papers
Stanford – Vienna Transatlantic Technology Law Forum A joint initiative of Stanford Law School and the University of Vienna School of Law European Union Law Working Papers No. 49 An Analysis of Articles 15 and 17 of the EU Directive on Copyright in the Digital Single Market: a boost for the creative industries or the death of the internet? Diana Passinke 2020 European Union Law Working Papers Editors: Siegfried Fina and Roland Vogl About the European Union Law Working Papers The European Union Law Working Paper Series presents research on the law and policy of the European Union. The objective of the European Union Law Working Paper Series is to share “works in progress”. The authors of the papers are solely responsible for the content of their contributions and may use the citation standards of their home country. The working papers can be found at http://ttlf.stanford.edu. The European Union Law Working Paper Series is a joint initiative of Stanford Law School and the University of Vienna School of Law’s LLM Program in European and International Business Law. If you should have any questions regarding the European Union Law Working Paper Series, please contact Professor Dr. Siegfried Fina, Jean Monnet Professor of European Union Law, or Dr. Roland Vogl, Executive Director of the Stanford Program in Law, Science and Technology, at: Stanford-Vienna Transatlantic Technology Law Forum http://ttlf.stanford.edu Stanford Law School University of Vienna School of Law Crown Quadrangle Department of Business Law 559 Nathan Abbott Way Schottenbastei 10-16 Stanford, CA 94305-8610 1010 Vienna, Austria About the Author Diana Passinke is a graduate of the University of Vienna, where she earned her LLM degree in European and International Business Law with distinction in 2020. -
2005 Mincer Award
Mincer Award Winners 2005: Orley Ashenfelter is one of the two winners of the 2005 Society of Labor Economists’ Jacob Mincer prize honoring lifetime achievements in the field of labor economics. Over the course of a distinguished career, Orley Ashenfelter has had tremendous influence on the development of modern labor economics. His early work on trade unions brought neoclassical economics to bear on a subject that had been the domain of traditional institutionally-oriented industrial relations specialists. As labor supply emerged as one of the most important subjects in the new field, Ashenfelter showed (in work with James Heckman) that neoclassical theory could be applied to decision making within the family. In his Frisch-prize winning 1980 article, Ashenfelter developed a theoretical and empirical framework for distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary unemployment. Orley was also involved in the income maintenance experiments, the first large-scale social experiments. In 1972 Orley served as Director of the Office of Evaluation of the U.S. Dept. of Labor and became deeply interested in the problem of program evaluation. This focus led him to emphasize developing credible and transparent sources of identification through strategies such as the collection of new data, difference-in-difference designs, and exploiting “natural experiments.” In the 1990s, Orley turned to measuring the returns to education. In a series of studies using new data on twins, Ashenfelter (with Alan Kreuger and Cecilia Rouse) suggested that OLS estimates of the returns to schooling were biased downward to a significant degree. Orley has also had a significant impact on the development of empirical law and economics in recent years. -
The Business Cycle and the Stock Market
-1- THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE STOCK MARKET by Andrei S leifer A.B., Harv d University (1982) SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 1986 Andrei Shleifer 1986 The author hereby grants to M.I.T. permission to reproduce and to distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of author__ Department of Economics May 12, 1986 Certified by Peter A. Diamond / Thesis Supervisor Certified by Franklin M. Fisher / Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Richard S. Eckaus Chairman, Departmental Graduate Committee ARCHIVES MASSACHUSETT SIN!TiTUTE OF TCHNN N1'' JUN 1 3 198E LIBRA";. - - 2 ABSTRACT The three essays of this thesis concern the role of expectations in determining the allocation of resources, particularly in the macroecono- mic context. Specifically, all three papers are motivated by the propo- sition that private agents' beliefs are aggregated into stock market prices, which can therefore influence the allocation of investment. The first essay does not deal with financial markets explicitly, although it explores the role of animal spirits in determining invest- ment. The essay describes an artificial economy, in which firms in dif- ferent sectors make inventions at different times, but innovate simultaneously to take advantage of high aggregate demand. In turn, high demand results from simultaneous innovation in many sectors. The economy exhibits multiple cyclical equilibria, with entrepreneurs' expectations determining which equilibrium obtains. These equilibria are Pareto ranked, and the most profitable equilibrium need not be the most effi- cient. -
Learning, Career Paths, and the Distribution of Wages†
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2019, 11(1): 49–88 https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170390 Learning, Career Paths, and the Distribution of Wages† By Santiago Caicedo, Robert E. Lucas Jr., and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg* We develop a theory of career paths and earnings where agents organize in production hierarchies. Agents climb these hierarchies as they learn stochastically from others. Earnings grow as agents acquire knowledge and occupy positions with more subordinates. We contrast these and other implications with US census data for the period 1990 to 2010, matching the Lorenz curve of earnings and the observed mean experience-earnings profiles. We show the increase in wage inequality over this period can be rationalized with a shift in the level of the complexity and profitability of technologies relative to the distribution of knowledge in the population. JEL D83, E24, J24, J31 ( ) his paper develops a new model of an economy that generates sustained pro- Tductivity growth. One distinctive feature of the model is that all knowledge in the economy is held by the individual people who comprise it: there is no abstract technology hovering above them in the ether. A second feature, necessarily involv- ing heterogeneous labor, is a kind of complementarity in production involving peo- ple with different skill levels: the marginal product of any one person is contingent on the people he works with. A third feature, closely related to the second, is that improvements over time in individual skill levels depend on imitation or stimulation or inspiration from other people in the economy. All growth is taken to arise from this force. -
Econ792 Reading 2020.Pdf
Economics 792: Labour Economics Provisional Outline, Spring 2020 This course will cover a number of topics in labour economics. Guidance on readings will be given in the lectures. There will be a number of problem sets throughout the course (where group work is encouraged), presentations, referee reports, and a research paper/proposal. These, together with class participation, will determine your final grade. The research paper will be optional. Students not submit- ting a paper will receive a lower grade. Small group work may be permitted on the research paper with the instructors approval, although all students must make substantive contributions to any paper. Labour Supply Facts Richard Blundell, Antoine Bozio, and Guy Laroque. Labor supply and the extensive margin. American Economic Review, 101(3):482–86, May 2011. Richard Blundell, Antoine Bozio, and Guy Laroque. Extensive and Intensive Margins of Labour Supply: Work and Working Hours in the US, the UK and France. Fiscal Studies, 34(1):1–29, 2013. Static Labour Supply Sören Blomquist and Whitney Newey. Nonparametric estimation with nonlinear budget sets. Econometrica, 70(6):2455–2480, 2002. Richard Blundell and Thomas Macurdy. Labor supply: A Review of Alternative Approaches. In Orley C. Ashenfelter and David Card, editors, Handbook of Labor Economics, volume 3, Part 1 of Handbook of Labor Economics, pages 1559–1695. Elsevier, 1999. Pierre A. Cahuc and André A. Zylberberg. Labor Economics. Mit Press, 2004. John F. Cogan. Fixed Costs and Labor Supply. Econometrica, 49(4):pp. 945–963, 1981. Jerry A. Hausman. The Econometrics of Nonlinear Budget Sets. Econometrica, 53(6):pp. 1255– 1282, 1985. -
Technical Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, DC
Technical Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, DC MODELING LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH Robert W. Arnold Congressional Budget Office Washington, D.C. 20515 [email protected] June 2003 2003-4 Technical papers in this series are preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. These papers are not subject to CBO’s formal review and editing processes. The analysis and conclusions expressed in them are those of the author and should not be interpreted as those of the Congressional Budget Office. References in publications should be cleared with the author. Papers in this series can be obtained from www.cbo.gov. Abstract This paper reviews the recent empirical literature on long-run growth to determine what factors influence growth in total factor productivity (TFP) and whether there are any channels of influence that should be added to standard models of long-run growth. Factors affecting productivity fall into three general categories: physical capital, human capital, and innovation (including other factors that might influence TFP growth). Recent empirical evidence provides little support for the idea that there are extra-normal returns to physical capital accumulation, nor is there solid justification for adding a separate channel of influence from capital to TFP growth. The paper finds evidence that human capital—as distinct from labor hours worked—is an important factor for growth but also that there is not yet a consensus about exactly how it should enter the model. Some argue that human capital should enter as a factor of production, while others argue that it merely spurs innovation. The forces governing TFP growth are not well understood, but there is evidence that R&D spending is a significant contributor and that its benefit to society may exceed its benefit to the company doing the spending—that is, it is a source of spillovers. -
Professor Orley Ashenfelter Is the World's Leading Researcher in The
Citation read out at the Royal Society of Edinburgh on 24 March 2005 upon the election of Professor Orley Ashenfelter to the Fellowship of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. Professor Orley Ashenfelter is the Joseph Douglas Green 1895 Professor of Economics at Princeton University. He is the world's leading researcher in the field of labour economics, and has also made major contributions to research in the field of econometrics and law and economics. As Director of the Office of Evaluation of the US Department of Labour in 1972, Professor Ashenfelter began the work that is now widely recognized as the field of "quantitative social program evaluation." His influential work on the econometric evaluation of government retraining programs led to the systematic development of rigorous methods for the evaluation of many social programs. Professor Ashenfelter is also regarded as the originator of the use of so-called "natural experiments" to infer causality about economic relationships. This approach, now becoming universal in all the social sciences, is associated with Princeton University's Industrial Relations Section, of which Professor Ashenfelter was Director. He edited the Handbook of Labour Economics, and is currently Editor of the American Law and Economics Review. His current research includes the evaluation of the effect of schooling on earnings, the cross- country measurement of wage rates, and many other issues related to the economics of labour markets. His further interests include the market for fine wine. Several of his contributions to the economics research literature have been motivated by and reflect this interest. Professor Ashenfelter is a frequent visitor to the UK, and has been visiting Professor at the London School of Economics and the University of Bristol. -
ANDREI SHLEIFER 1 March 2019
ANDREI SHLEIFER 1 March 2019 ANDREI SHLEIFER Department of Economics Harvard University M9 Littauer Center Cambridge, MA 02138 Date of Birth: February 20, 1961 Citizenship: U.S.A. Undergraduate Studies: Harvard, A.B., Math, 1982. Graduate Studies: MIT, Ph.D., May, 1986. Thesis Title: “The Business Cycle and the Stock Market” EMPLOYMENT: John L. Loeb Professor of Economics, Harvard University, 1991 - present. Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1989 - 1990. Assistant Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1987 - 1989. Assistant Professor of Economics, Princeton University, 1986 - 1987. OTHER AFFILIATIONS: Faculty Research Fellow and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986- Associate and Advisory Editor, Journal of Financial Economics, 1988 - . Associate Editor, Journal of Finance, 1988 - 1991. Editor, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1989 - 1999, 2012 - Advisor, Government of Russia, 1991 - 1997. Principal, LSV Asset Management, 1994 - 2003. Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003 - 2008. ANDREI SHLEIFER 2 March 2019 AWARDS, FELLOWSHIPS, AND GRANTS: National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship, 1983 - 1986. CRSP Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, March-June, 1986. Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship, 1990. National Science Foundation Grants, 1988 - 1989, 1990 - 1991, 19 94 - 1996, 1998 - 2000, 2001 - 2003. Presidential Young Investigator Award, 1989 - 1994. Bradley Foundation Grant, 1989, 1990, 1991 - 1992. Russell Sage Foundation Grant (with R. Vishny), 1988, 1991. Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Grant (with L. Summers), 1986, 1988 - 1990. Fellow, Econometric Society, 1993. Roger F. Murray Award of the Q-Group, 1994, and the Smith-Breeden Prize of the Journal of Finance for Distinguished paper, 1995, given to “Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk.” Member, U.S.-Israel Joint Economic Development Group, 1995 - 1997. -
Shleifer's Failure
Shleifer’s Failure THE FAILURE OF JUDGES AND THE RISE OF REGULATORS. By Andrei Shleifer. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2012. 352 pages. $40.00. Reviewed by Jonathan Klick* I. Introduction Andrei Shleifer is undoubtedly among the world’s most important economists. By standard citation measures, no one else is anywhere close. For example, his nearly 19,000 citations in the RePEc rankings1 as of October 2012 place him ahead of Nobel Prize2 winners such as James Heckman (12,212),3 Joseph Stiglitz (11,431),4 and Robert Lucas (9,314).5 His work on corporate finance, behavioral finance, and transition economics earned him the American Economic Association’s prestigious John Bates Clark medal in 1999.6 Perhaps not even international scandal will keep Shleifer from taking his place among the Nobelists.7 Shleifer’s influence in legal scholarship is almost as large. With more than 1,000 Westlaw citations,8 Shleifer would compare favorably to most law and economics specialists in top U.S. law schools.9 Given all of this, the publication of Shleifer’s book The Failure of Judges and the Rise of Regulators10 as part of the MIT Press’s Walras-Pareto Lecture series is sure to be of interest to a wide range of legal scholars, students, and policy makers—and especially to those who do not have access to JSTOR11 and a * Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania. 1. Top 5% Authors, as of October 2012, IDEAS, http://ideas.repec.org/top/top .person.nbcites.html. 2. Formally the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, NOBELPRIZE.ORG, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics, but only pedants note this, such as bloggers who disagree with a given Nobelist’s positions. -
1 Nobel Autobiography Angus Deaton, Princeton, February 2016 Scotland
Nobel Autobiography Angus Deaton, Princeton, February 2016 Scotland I was born in Edinburgh, in Scotland, a few days after the end of the Second World War. Both my parents had left school at a very young age, unwillingly in my father’s case. Yet both had deep effects on my education, my father influencing me toward measurement and mathematics, and my mother toward writing and history. The school in the Yorkshire mining village in which my father grew up in the 1920s and 1930s allowed only a few children to go to high school, and my father was not one of them. He spent much of his time as a young man repairing this deprivation, mostly at night school. In his village, teenagers could go to evening classes to learn basic surveying and measurement techniques that were useful in the mine. In Edinburgh, later, he went to technical school in the evening, caught up on high school, and after many years and much difficulty, qualified as a civil engineer. He was determined that I would have the advantages that he had been denied. My mother was the daughter of William Wood, who owned a small woodworking business in the town of Galashiels in the Scottish Borders. Although not well-educated, and less of an advocate for education than my father, she was a great story-teller (though it was sometimes hard to tell the stories from gossip), and a prodigious letter- writer. She was proud of being Scottish (I could make her angry by saying that I was British, and apoplectic by saying that I was English), and she loved the Borders, where her family had been builders and carpenters for many generations.