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Andrei Shleifer Murphy Kevin M Epstein Larry G Hynes J Allan Karni Edi Smith V Kerry Bolton Patrick Anna L. Paulson Lach Saul Robin Brooks Robert M. Townsend Jeremy Bulow Isabel Correia Bresnahan Timothy F Rosemary Avery Joseph G. Altonji Peterson David W Chen Chau-nan Bhagwan Chowdhry Lars Peter Hansen Stern Robert M Bertin Amy L Weingast Barry R Alan Mathios Cabreales Antonio Lang Larry H P Donald Kenkel Barton H. Hamilton Zuber Richard A Hugo Hopenhayn Robert B. Ekelund Jr. Michael Greenstone David Dranove Saks Daniel H Deaton Angus Findlay Ronald Philip DeCicca Cropper Maureen L. Shiller Robert J Assaf Razin Harold G. Moulton Dooley Martin D S. Lawrence Bigelow Francesco Drago Robert D. Tollison Greif Avner Myron W. Watkins C. Arnold Anderson Tai-wei Hu Alon Brav Whalley John Bruno Biais Postlewaite Andrew Tano Santos Sanjeev Goyal Cole Harold L Ehrenberg Ronald G Day Richard H Neumann George R Harrison Glenn W Ricardo J. Caballero Thomas Sargent Christina Paxson J. David Brown Bhattacharya Sudipto McMillan John Jonathan M. Karpoff Rucker Randal R Bronars Stephen G Luigi Guiso Hubbard R Glenn Diebold Francis X Wolfe Barbara L Lior Menzly Leffler Keith B Luigi Pistaferri Paul Gomme Friedman Daniel Lewis Tracy R Stiglitz Joseph E Wellisz Stanislaw Hoffer George E Firms Zeckhauser Richard J Eswaran Mukesh Orazio P. Attanasio Thomas Cooley Hodrick Robert J Kerwin Kofi Charles Vernon Henderson John Knowles Blair Douglas H Schwert G William Deaton Angus S Zellner Arnold Rothkopf Michael H Wolpin Kenneth I Michael Mann French Kenneth R Michael P. Keane Cass DavidMilgrom Paul Hansen Lars Peter Frey Bruno S StarkRosenzweig Oded Mark R Andrew W. Lo Vincenzo Quadrini Nicola Persico Hanming FangAltonji Joseph G Richard H. Thaler Erik Hurst Jose A. Scheinkman Ruback Richard S Doherty Neil A Rothschild Michael Aloysius Siow Venieris Yiannis P Dan Silverman Timothy C. Haab Fama Eugene F Balassa Bela Martin Gaynor Tolley George S Bikhchandani Sushil Enrique G. Mendoza Camerer Colin Moore John Shell Karl Leonid Kogan Ashenfelter Orley Calvo Guillermo A Behrman Jere R Hirshleifer David Oliver Hart Ricardo de O. Cavalcanti John Morgan Mark Aguiar Simeon Djankov Hayami Yujiro Kiyotaki Nobuhiro Alberto Alesina Hwang Hae-shin Welch Ivo Kotlikoff Laurence J Bollerslev Tim Glaeser Edward L Kawagoe Toshihiko Simon P. Anderson Pollak JoaoRobert Gomes A Jacob K. Goeree Roberts John Wales Terence J Paul H. Douglas Admati Anat R Burdett Kenneth Raymond Fisman Andrei Shleifer Foley Duncan K Edward Miguel Pfleiderer Paul Small Kenneth A Wright Randall Barnett William A Barberis Nicholas Lu Zhang Marvel Howard P Pencavel John H De Long J Bradford Bulow Jeremy I Benny Moldovanu Schmitz Troy GRafael La Porta Salant Stephen W Harold F. Williamson Ehrlich Isaac Bagnoli Mark Laura Xiaolei Liu Makinen Gail E Ellison Glenn Bulow Jeremy Keane Michael Bull Clive Summers Lawrence H Toni M. Whited Gisser Micha Dennis W. 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Rao Aiyagari Charlotte Ostergaard Kydland Finn E BarskyPrescott Robert B Edward C Garber Peter M Patrick Bajari Topel Robert H Karen E. Dynan Plott Charles R Donald E. Farrar Mikhail Golosov Dean A. Worcester Sargent Thomas J Kandel Eugene Wallace Neil Per Krusell Chalfant James A Noussair Charles N Yuriy Gorodnichenko Franco Modigliani Jovanovic Boyan Lazear Edward P Alston JulianConstantine M John H Jr. Fershtman Chaim Hamermesh Daniel S Dixit Avinash R. Joseph Monsen M. Keith Chen T. J. Courchene In Pursuit of Leviathan: Technology Grossman Michael Lalith Munasinghe McGuire Thomas Rosen Sherwin Quirk James Graham Daniel A Arthur A. Bright John R. LottW. T. M. Beale Marshall Robert C Richard Rogerson Ana Castaneda Glenn MacDonald Miron Jeffrey A Baldwin Laura H Daron Acemoglu Frenkel Jacob A Kislev Yoav Simpson R David Eduardo M. R. A. Engel Peter M. DeMarzo Helpman Elhanan Amy Finkelstein Steven J. Davis Grossman Gene M Weiss Yoram Nerlove Marc Shapiro Carl English William B Lauren Cohen Robert H. Topel Scheinkman Jose A Crocker Keith J Snow Arthur MacDonald Glenn M Marc Fleurbaey Christensen Laurits R Tirole Jean Stephen L. Parente Razin Assaf Shavell Steven Torsten Persson Stephen G. Bronars Junsen Zhang Lawrence J. Lau Hongbin Li Bruce Neil Holtz-Eakin Douglas Laurens Cherchye Franklin M. Fisher Rosen Harvey S Layard Richard Willis Robert J Yingyi QianGerard Roland Kenneth Burdett Comay Yochanan Svensson Lars E O Horstmann Ignatius Psacharopoulos George Mueller Dennis C Andrew Atkeson Markusen James R Scholes MyronKevin S M. Murphy Weiss Laurence Stuart Charles Randall Wright Modest David M Fernando Alvarez Jere R. Behrman Kalish Lionel Heckman James J John Leahy Koo Anthony Y C Levhari David Ricardo Lagos Miller Merton H Persson Torsten Sheshinski Eytan Patrick J. 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Calvet Groves Theodore Van Huyck John B Oates Wallace E Settle Russell F Baumol William J John Y. Campbell Ivar Ekeland Gould John P Abram Bergson Carlson John A John Karl Scholz Ivan Werning John G. Cragg Michael Baker Halvorsen Robert L. C. Marshall Michael L. Lemmon Barron John M de Meza David Sebastian Galiani Bernard Salanie Curtis Carlson Bart J. Bronnenberg Patrick Bolton Kjetil Storesletten Erich Battistin Stephen V. Cameron Gould J R Stigler George J Murphy Kevin J Richard Blundell James J. Heckman Itzhak Gilboa Jonathan Gruber HansenStrauss W Lee Robert P Paul Gertler Metcalf David Johnson William R Demange Gabrielle Maxim Engers Pierre-Andre ChiapporiBrowning Martin John H. Dales Lillard Lee Amitabh Chandra Keeler Emmett B Newhouse Joseph P.
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  • The Business Cycle and the Stock Market
    -1- THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE STOCK MARKET by Andrei S leifer A.B., Harv d University (1982) SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 1986 Andrei Shleifer 1986 The author hereby grants to M.I.T. permission to reproduce and to distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of author__ Department of Economics May 12, 1986 Certified by Peter A. Diamond / Thesis Supervisor Certified by Franklin M. Fisher / Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Richard S. Eckaus Chairman, Departmental Graduate Committee ARCHIVES MASSACHUSETT SIN!TiTUTE OF TCHNN N1'' JUN 1 3 198E LIBRA";. - - 2 ABSTRACT The three essays of this thesis concern the role of expectations in determining the allocation of resources, particularly in the macroecono- mic context. Specifically, all three papers are motivated by the propo- sition that private agents' beliefs are aggregated into stock market prices, which can therefore influence the allocation of investment. The first essay does not deal with financial markets explicitly, although it explores the role of animal spirits in determining invest- ment. The essay describes an artificial economy, in which firms in dif- ferent sectors make inventions at different times, but innovate simultaneously to take advantage of high aggregate demand. In turn, high demand results from simultaneous innovation in many sectors. The economy exhibits multiple cyclical equilibria, with entrepreneurs' expectations determining which equilibrium obtains. These equilibria are Pareto ranked, and the most profitable equilibrium need not be the most effi- cient.
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