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©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 40
39 These insights are relevant to today’s crisis. If the health crisis is mismanaged, it could linger for years and lead to a more persistent crisis. If our economic policies are not aggressive enough, they could make the economic effects of the crisis even larger. Continued macroeconomic stimulus, where policy space exists, is needed using an array of policy instruments. While these are standard recipes for any crisis, our research highlights that, in the presence of hysteresis and in the case of a large and persistent event like the one we are witnessing, the costs of policy mistakes are very large. Now is not the time to doubt or err on the side of caution when it comes to expansionary economic policies. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 40 References Aghion, Philippe, Philippe Askenazy, Nicolas Berman, Gilbert Cette, and Laurent Eymard, 2012, “Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France.” Journal of the European Economic Association 10(5):1001–1024. Aghion, Philippe, and Peter Howitt, 1992, “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction.” Econometrica 60(2):323–351. Aghion, Philippe, and Gilles Saint-Paul, 1991, “On the Virtue of Bad times: An Analysis of the Interaction between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth.” CEPR Discussion Papers 578. Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Anzoategui, Diego, Diego Comin, Mark Gertler, and Joseba Martinez, 2019, “Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(3):67–110. Arrow, Kenneth J., 1962, “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing.” The Review of Economic Studies 29(3):155–173. -
The Business Cycle and the Stock Market
-1- THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE STOCK MARKET by Andrei S leifer A.B., Harv d University (1982) SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 1986 Andrei Shleifer 1986 The author hereby grants to M.I.T. permission to reproduce and to distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of author__ Department of Economics May 12, 1986 Certified by Peter A. Diamond / Thesis Supervisor Certified by Franklin M. Fisher / Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Richard S. Eckaus Chairman, Departmental Graduate Committee ARCHIVES MASSACHUSETT SIN!TiTUTE OF TCHNN N1'' JUN 1 3 198E LIBRA";. - - 2 ABSTRACT The three essays of this thesis concern the role of expectations in determining the allocation of resources, particularly in the macroecono- mic context. Specifically, all three papers are motivated by the propo- sition that private agents' beliefs are aggregated into stock market prices, which can therefore influence the allocation of investment. The first essay does not deal with financial markets explicitly, although it explores the role of animal spirits in determining invest- ment. The essay describes an artificial economy, in which firms in dif- ferent sectors make inventions at different times, but innovate simultaneously to take advantage of high aggregate demand. In turn, high demand results from simultaneous innovation in many sectors. The economy exhibits multiple cyclical equilibria, with entrepreneurs' expectations determining which equilibrium obtains. These equilibria are Pareto ranked, and the most profitable equilibrium need not be the most effi- cient. -
Outline of Macroeconomics Sequence (2021-2022)
European University Institute Department of Economics This version: July 19, 2021 Outline of Macroeconomics Sequence (2021-2022) Core courses (Year 1, compulsory) Core 1: Dynamic Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Russell Cooper, [email protected]) Core 2A: Dynamic Programming and Real Business Cycles (Jesus Bueren, [email protected]) Core 2B: New Keynesian Economics (Edouard Challe, [email protected]) Core 3A: Search Theory (Edouard Challe, [email protected]) Core 3B: Incomplete Markets (Alexander Monge-Naranjo, [email protected]) Advanced courses (Year 2+, elective) Advanced 1: Firm Dynamics [half-credit] (Basile Grassi, [email protected]) Advanced 2: Quantitative Methods and Applications: Dynamic Factor Demand [half-credit] (Russell Cooper, [email protected]) Advanced 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Institutions in a Century of Crises [full-credit] (Ramon Marimon, [email protected]) Advanced 4: Asset Pricing and Bubbles [half-credit] (Edouard Challe, [email protected]) Advanced 5: Life-Cycle Heterogeneous Agents Models: Solution and Estimation [full-credit] (Jesus Bueren, [email protected]) Advanced 6: Computations and Quantitative Models in Macro [half-credit] (Alexander Monge-Naranjo, [email protected]) Advanced 7: Topics on Housing and the Macroeconomy [half-credit] (Antonia Díaz, [email protected]) Advanced 8: Macro Models with Exogenous and Endogenous Incomplete Markets [half-credit] TBC (Árpád Ábrahám, [email protected]) Advanced 9: Inequality and Education [full-credit] (Alexander Monge-Naranjo, [email protected]) Advanced 10: Topics in Banking and Finance [half-credit] (Thorsten Beck, [email protected]) Advanced 11: Optimal Fiscal Policy in (Quantitative) Macro Models [half-credit] (Axelle Ferriere, [email protected]) .../.. -
Politics and Economics in Weak and Strong States
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES POLITICS AND ECONOMICS IN WEAK AND STRONG STATES Daron Acemoglu Working Paper 11275 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11275 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 April 2005 I thank Simon Johnson, Robert King, Philipp Harms, Gerard Padro-i-Miguel, James Robinson, Pierre-Daniel Sarte, Pierre Yared, an anonymous referee, and participants in the Brown University microeconomics seminar, Canadian Institute of Advanced Research conference, Macroeconomics and Political Economy conference in Gerzenzee, and MIT macro lunch for helpful comments and Ufuk Akcigit, Pierre Yared and especially Alexandre Debs for excellent research assistance. I thank the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0443465 for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2005 by Daron Acemoglu. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Politics and Economics in Weak and Strong States Daron Acemoglu NBER Working Paper No. 11275 April 2005 JEL No. P16, H10 ABSTRACT While much research in political economy points out the benefits of "limited government," political scientists have long emphasized the problems created in many less developed nations by "weak states," which lack the power to tax and regulate the economy and to withstand the political and social challenges from non-state actors. I construct a model in which the state apparatus is controlled by a self-interested ruler, who tries to divert resources for his own consumption, but who can also invest in socially productive public goods. -
Economic Perspectives
The Journal of The Journal of Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives The Journal of Spring 2015, Volume 29, Number 2 Economic Perspectives Symposia The Bailouts of 2007–2009 Austan D. Goolsbee and Alan B. Krueger, “A Retrospective Look at Rescuing and Restructuring General Motors and Chrysler” W. Scott Frame, Andreas Fuster, Joseph Tracy, and James Vickery, “The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac” Charles W. Calomiris and Urooj Khan, “An Assessment of TARP Assistance to Financial Institutions” Robert McDonald and Anna Paulson, “AIG in Hindsight” Phillip Swagel, “Legal, Political, and Institutional Constraints on A journal of the the Financial Crisis Policy Response” American Economic Association Disability Insurance Jeffrey B. Liebman, “Understanding the Increase in Disability Insurance Benet 29, Number 2 Spring 2015 Volume Receipt in the United States” Pierre Koning and Maarten Lindeboom, “The Rise and Fall of Disability Insurance Enrollment in the Netherlands” James Banks, Richard Blundell, and Carl Emmerson, “Disability Benet Receipt and Reform: Reconciling Trends in the United Kingdom” Articles Darrell Dufe and Jeremy C. Stein, “Reforming LIBOR and Other Financial Market Benchmarks” Rainer Böhme, Nicolas Christin, Benjamin Edelman, and Tyler Moore, “Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance” Konstantin Kashin, Gary King, and Samir Soneji, “Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts” Recommendations for Further Reading Spring 2015 The Journal of Economic Perspectives A journal of -
Macroeconomics 4
Macroeconomics IV Bocconi University Ph.D. in Economics Spring 2021 Instructor: Luigi Iovino Time: Th. 16:30 – 18:00 Email: [email protected] F.10:20 – 11:50 TA: Andrea Pasqualini Email: [email protected] Course description. This course is divided into three parts. In the first part, we will cover the workhorse New-Keynesian model. We will use this model to draw normative lessons for monetary policy, both with and without commitment of the Central Bank. We will also discuss the empirical evidence quantifying the importance of nominal rigidities. The second part of the course focuses on the effect of financial frictions on macroeconomic outcomes. Loosely speaking, financial frictions refer to the informational, behavioral, or insti- tutional features that constrain the flow of resources from savers to potential investors or con- sumers. This course introduces some of these frictions and analyzes their effect on investment, consumption, asset prices, financial crises, and business cycles. In the third part, we will study models with informational frictions. Starting from the seminal work of Lucas (1972) on money non-neutrality, the course will cover the business-cycle proper- ties of models with dispersed information and the social value of information. We will discuss (most of) the papers marked with an asterisk. The other papers are recom- mended to those who are interested in the topic. 1 The New Keynesian Model Theory * Jordi Gal´ı. Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle: an introduction to the new Keynesian framework and its applications. Princeton University Press, 2015 • Carl E Walsh. Monetary theory and policy. -
ANDREI SHLEIFER 1 March 2019
ANDREI SHLEIFER 1 March 2019 ANDREI SHLEIFER Department of Economics Harvard University M9 Littauer Center Cambridge, MA 02138 Date of Birth: February 20, 1961 Citizenship: U.S.A. Undergraduate Studies: Harvard, A.B., Math, 1982. Graduate Studies: MIT, Ph.D., May, 1986. Thesis Title: “The Business Cycle and the Stock Market” EMPLOYMENT: John L. Loeb Professor of Economics, Harvard University, 1991 - present. Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1989 - 1990. Assistant Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1987 - 1989. Assistant Professor of Economics, Princeton University, 1986 - 1987. OTHER AFFILIATIONS: Faculty Research Fellow and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986- Associate and Advisory Editor, Journal of Financial Economics, 1988 - . Associate Editor, Journal of Finance, 1988 - 1991. Editor, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1989 - 1999, 2012 - Advisor, Government of Russia, 1991 - 1997. Principal, LSV Asset Management, 1994 - 2003. Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003 - 2008. ANDREI SHLEIFER 2 March 2019 AWARDS, FELLOWSHIPS, AND GRANTS: National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship, 1983 - 1986. CRSP Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, March-June, 1986. Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship, 1990. National Science Foundation Grants, 1988 - 1989, 1990 - 1991, 19 94 - 1996, 1998 - 2000, 2001 - 2003. Presidential Young Investigator Award, 1989 - 1994. Bradley Foundation Grant, 1989, 1990, 1991 - 1992. Russell Sage Foundation Grant (with R. Vishny), 1988, 1991. Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Grant (with L. Summers), 1986, 1988 - 1990. Fellow, Econometric Society, 1993. Roger F. Murray Award of the Q-Group, 1994, and the Smith-Breeden Prize of the Journal of Finance for Distinguished paper, 1995, given to “Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk.” Member, U.S.-Israel Joint Economic Development Group, 1995 - 1997. -
Shleifer's Failure
Shleifer’s Failure THE FAILURE OF JUDGES AND THE RISE OF REGULATORS. By Andrei Shleifer. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2012. 352 pages. $40.00. Reviewed by Jonathan Klick* I. Introduction Andrei Shleifer is undoubtedly among the world’s most important economists. By standard citation measures, no one else is anywhere close. For example, his nearly 19,000 citations in the RePEc rankings1 as of October 2012 place him ahead of Nobel Prize2 winners such as James Heckman (12,212),3 Joseph Stiglitz (11,431),4 and Robert Lucas (9,314).5 His work on corporate finance, behavioral finance, and transition economics earned him the American Economic Association’s prestigious John Bates Clark medal in 1999.6 Perhaps not even international scandal will keep Shleifer from taking his place among the Nobelists.7 Shleifer’s influence in legal scholarship is almost as large. With more than 1,000 Westlaw citations,8 Shleifer would compare favorably to most law and economics specialists in top U.S. law schools.9 Given all of this, the publication of Shleifer’s book The Failure of Judges and the Rise of Regulators10 as part of the MIT Press’s Walras-Pareto Lecture series is sure to be of interest to a wide range of legal scholars, students, and policy makers—and especially to those who do not have access to JSTOR11 and a * Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania. 1. Top 5% Authors, as of October 2012, IDEAS, http://ideas.repec.org/top/top .person.nbcites.html. 2. Formally the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, NOBELPRIZE.ORG, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics, but only pedants note this, such as bloggers who disagree with a given Nobelist’s positions. -
On the Design of Hierarchies: Coordination Versus Specialization
NBER WORKING PAPER SEIUES ON THE DESIGN OF HIERARCHIES: COORDINATION VERSUS SPECIALIZATION Oliver Hart John Moore Working Paper 7388 http://www.nber.org/papers/w73 88 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 1999 We thank Philippe Aghion, Antoine Faure-Grimaud, Ulrike Malmendier, Fausto Panunzi, Rohan Pitchford, Andrei Shleifer, Jean Tirole, Chenggang Xu, and seminar audiences at the Western Economic Association and European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARlE) meetings for helpful comments.We acknowledge financial support from the U.S. National Science Foundation through the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Leverhulme Trust, the LSE Financial Markets Group, and the Suntory Toyota International Centre for Economics and Related Disciplines at the LSE. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. )1999by Oliver Hart and John Moore. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice,is given to the source. On the Design of Hierarchies: Coordination Versus Specialization Oliver Hart and John Moore NBER Working Paper No. 7388 October 1999 JELNo.D2, L2 ABSTRACT We develop a model of hierarchies based on the allocation of authority. A firm's owners have ultimate authority over a firm's decisions, but they have limited time or capacity to exercise this authority. Hence owners must delegate authority to subordinates. However, these subordinates also have limited time or capacity and so further delegation must occur. We analyze the optimal chain of command given that different agents have different tasks: some agents are engaged in coordination and others in specialization. -
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES a NORMAL COUNTRY Andrei
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES A NORMAL COUNTRY Andrei Shleifer Daniel Treisman Working Paper 10057 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10057 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2003 We thank Anders Aslund, Olivier Blanchard, Maxim Boycko, David Cutler, Martin Feldstein, Sergei Guriev, Stephen Hanson, Simon Johnson, David Laibson, Dwight Perkins, Lawrence Summers, Judith Thornton, Katia Zhuravskaya, and participants at a seminar at the University of Washington. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2003 by Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Treisman. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. A Normal Country Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Treisman NBER Working Paper No. 10057 October 2003 JEL No. P2, P3, P5 ABSTRACT During the 1990s, Russia underwent an extraordinary transformation from a communist dictatorship to a multi-party democracy, from a centrally planned economy to a market economy, and from a belligerent adversary of the West to a cooperative partner. Yet a consensus in the US circa 2000 viewed Russia as a disastrous and threatening failure, and the 1990s as a decade of catastrophe for its citizens. Analyzing a variety of economic and political data, we demonstrate a large gap between this perception and the facts. In contrast to the common image, by the late 1990s Russia had become a typical middle-income capitalist democracy. Andrei Shleifer Harvard University Department of Economics M9Littauer Center Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER [email protected] Daniel Treisman University of California, Los Angeles Political Science Department 3265 Bunche Hall Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 [email protected] 1 Introduction During the 1990s, Russia underwent an extraordinary transformation. -
Can Higher Prices Stimulate Product Use? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Zambia
Can Higher Prices Stimulate Product Use? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Zambia Nava Ashraf James Berry Jesse M. Shapiro Working Paper 07-034 Copyright © 2006, 2007, 2008 by Nava Ashraf, James Berry, and Jesse M. Shapiro Working papers are in draft form. This working paper is distributed for purposes of comment and discussion only. It may not be reproduced without permission of the copyright holder. Copies of working papers are available from the author. Can Higher Prices Stimulate Product Use? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Zambia Nava Ashraf James Berry Harvard Business School Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jesse M. Shapiro University of Chicago and NBER August 14, 2008 Abstract The controversy over whether and how much to charge for health products in the developing world rests, in part, on whether higher prices can increase use, either by targeting distribution to high-use households (a screening e¤ect), or by stimulating use psychologically through a sunk-cost e¤ect. We develop a methodology for separating these two e¤ects. We implement the methodology in a …eld experiment in Zambia using door-to-door marketing of a home water puri…cation solution. We …nd that higher prices screen out those who use the product less. By contrast, we …nd no consistent evidence of sunk-cost e¤ects. JEL classi…cation: C93, D12, L11, L31 Keywords: chlorination, water-borne diseases, sunk-cost e¤ect, non-pro…t strategy, social marketing We are grateful to Gary Becker, Stefano DellaVigna, Dave Donaldson, Erik Eyster, Matthew Gentzkow, Jerry Green, Ali Hortaçsu, Emir Kamenica, Dean Karlan, Larry Katz, Michael Kremer, Stephen Leider, Steve Levitt, John List, Kevin M. -
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