ANDREI SHLEIFER 1 March 2019
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The Business Cycle and the Stock Market
-1- THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE STOCK MARKET by Andrei S leifer A.B., Harv d University (1982) SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 1986 Andrei Shleifer 1986 The author hereby grants to M.I.T. permission to reproduce and to distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of author__ Department of Economics May 12, 1986 Certified by Peter A. Diamond / Thesis Supervisor Certified by Franklin M. Fisher / Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Richard S. Eckaus Chairman, Departmental Graduate Committee ARCHIVES MASSACHUSETT SIN!TiTUTE OF TCHNN N1'' JUN 1 3 198E LIBRA";. - - 2 ABSTRACT The three essays of this thesis concern the role of expectations in determining the allocation of resources, particularly in the macroecono- mic context. Specifically, all three papers are motivated by the propo- sition that private agents' beliefs are aggregated into stock market prices, which can therefore influence the allocation of investment. The first essay does not deal with financial markets explicitly, although it explores the role of animal spirits in determining invest- ment. The essay describes an artificial economy, in which firms in dif- ferent sectors make inventions at different times, but innovate simultaneously to take advantage of high aggregate demand. In turn, high demand results from simultaneous innovation in many sectors. The economy exhibits multiple cyclical equilibria, with entrepreneurs' expectations determining which equilibrium obtains. These equilibria are Pareto ranked, and the most profitable equilibrium need not be the most effi- cient. -
The Workshop on Digital Currency Economics and Policy Is Jointly Organised by the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Resea
“The Workshop on Digital Currency Economics and Policy is jointly organised by the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER), the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School and MAS. This Workshop, to be held in conjunction with the Singapore FinTech Festival 2018, aims to focus applied economic and financial research efforts on the implications of digital currencies for monetary policy and the financial system. It seeks to provide a platform for established academics in their mainstream areas of monetary and financial economics to apply their expertise to analysing the implications of digital currencies, and to encourage discussions on how the existing frameworks and paradigms of thinking about monetary and financial policies can be extended to incorporate this new technology-enabled development.” Competition amongst monies has a long history. Private or foreign money, if trusted, can serve as a medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account, alongside or even displacing, government-issued monies. Recent technological advancement has lowered the barriers to entry for users to create private digital instruments that behave like currencies, often without any issuer. Many of these have market prices (which reflect the value that holders assign to them) and are accepted by some merchants as payment for goods and services. Correspondingly, multiple private monies, called digital currencies, have emerged. While their economic significance is still debatable, the phenomenon raises many important monetary policy and regulatory issues. Digital monies can impact an economy, affect transaction arrangements and efficiency, and disrupt financial intermediation and related business models – especially in banking. They may modulate the relationship between traditional fiat money and price, savings and investment behaviour, and also expand avenues for illegal transactions. -
Christopher Polk
Christopher Polk Department of Finance London School of Economics London WC2A 2AE United Kingdom +44 (0)20 7849 4917 phone +44 (0)20 7852 3580 fax [email protected] http://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk CURRENT POSITION London School of Economics: Professor of Finance, 2006-present Center for Economic and Policy Research: Research Fellow, 2009-present PREVIOUS ACADEMIC POSITIONS Head of Department, September 2017-August 2020 Journal of Finance Associate Editor, July 2012-August 2018 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Visiting Professor of Finance, 2015-2016 Financial Markets Group (LSE Research Centre): Director, 2009-2015 Harvard University, Visiting Professor of Economics, 2008-2009 Kellogg School of Management: Assistant Professor of Finance, 1998-2006 EDUCATION Ph.D. in Finance, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, 1998. Advisors: Eugene Fama (chair), John Cochrane, George Constantinides, Owen Lamont. B.S., Duke University, magna cum laude in physics and economics (with honors), 1990. HONORS AND FELLOWSHIPS Fama-DFA Prize: Best asset pricing paper in the Journal of Financial Economics, 2018 AQR Insight Award, Honorable Mention, 2014 IdR QUANTVALLEY /FdR Quantitative Management Initiative Research Award 2013 Europlace Institute of Finance Research Grant 2013 Q Group Research Award, 2012 Inquire Europe Research Award, 2012 Jensen Prize: Best corporate finance paper in the Journal of Financial Economics, 2002 Investment Analysts Society of Chicago Research Grant Award, 2002 Searle Fund Research Grant, 2002 Dean Jacobs Junior -
Shleifer's Failure
Shleifer’s Failure THE FAILURE OF JUDGES AND THE RISE OF REGULATORS. By Andrei Shleifer. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2012. 352 pages. $40.00. Reviewed by Jonathan Klick* I. Introduction Andrei Shleifer is undoubtedly among the world’s most important economists. By standard citation measures, no one else is anywhere close. For example, his nearly 19,000 citations in the RePEc rankings1 as of October 2012 place him ahead of Nobel Prize2 winners such as James Heckman (12,212),3 Joseph Stiglitz (11,431),4 and Robert Lucas (9,314).5 His work on corporate finance, behavioral finance, and transition economics earned him the American Economic Association’s prestigious John Bates Clark medal in 1999.6 Perhaps not even international scandal will keep Shleifer from taking his place among the Nobelists.7 Shleifer’s influence in legal scholarship is almost as large. With more than 1,000 Westlaw citations,8 Shleifer would compare favorably to most law and economics specialists in top U.S. law schools.9 Given all of this, the publication of Shleifer’s book The Failure of Judges and the Rise of Regulators10 as part of the MIT Press’s Walras-Pareto Lecture series is sure to be of interest to a wide range of legal scholars, students, and policy makers—and especially to those who do not have access to JSTOR11 and a * Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania. 1. Top 5% Authors, as of October 2012, IDEAS, http://ideas.repec.org/top/top .person.nbcites.html. 2. Formally the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, NOBELPRIZE.ORG, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics, but only pedants note this, such as bloggers who disagree with a given Nobelist’s positions. -
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES a NORMAL COUNTRY Andrei
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES A NORMAL COUNTRY Andrei Shleifer Daniel Treisman Working Paper 10057 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10057 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2003 We thank Anders Aslund, Olivier Blanchard, Maxim Boycko, David Cutler, Martin Feldstein, Sergei Guriev, Stephen Hanson, Simon Johnson, David Laibson, Dwight Perkins, Lawrence Summers, Judith Thornton, Katia Zhuravskaya, and participants at a seminar at the University of Washington. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2003 by Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Treisman. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. A Normal Country Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Treisman NBER Working Paper No. 10057 October 2003 JEL No. P2, P3, P5 ABSTRACT During the 1990s, Russia underwent an extraordinary transformation from a communist dictatorship to a multi-party democracy, from a centrally planned economy to a market economy, and from a belligerent adversary of the West to a cooperative partner. Yet a consensus in the US circa 2000 viewed Russia as a disastrous and threatening failure, and the 1990s as a decade of catastrophe for its citizens. Analyzing a variety of economic and political data, we demonstrate a large gap between this perception and the facts. In contrast to the common image, by the late 1990s Russia had become a typical middle-income capitalist democracy. Andrei Shleifer Harvard University Department of Economics M9Littauer Center Cambridge, MA 02138 and NBER [email protected] Daniel Treisman University of California, Los Angeles Political Science Department 3265 Bunche Hall Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 [email protected] 1 Introduction During the 1990s, Russia underwent an extraordinary transformation. -
Can Higher Prices Stimulate Product Use? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Zambia
Can Higher Prices Stimulate Product Use? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Zambia Nava Ashraf James Berry Jesse M. Shapiro Working Paper 07-034 Copyright © 2006, 2007, 2008 by Nava Ashraf, James Berry, and Jesse M. Shapiro Working papers are in draft form. This working paper is distributed for purposes of comment and discussion only. It may not be reproduced without permission of the copyright holder. Copies of working papers are available from the author. Can Higher Prices Stimulate Product Use? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Zambia Nava Ashraf James Berry Harvard Business School Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jesse M. Shapiro University of Chicago and NBER August 14, 2008 Abstract The controversy over whether and how much to charge for health products in the developing world rests, in part, on whether higher prices can increase use, either by targeting distribution to high-use households (a screening e¤ect), or by stimulating use psychologically through a sunk-cost e¤ect. We develop a methodology for separating these two e¤ects. We implement the methodology in a …eld experiment in Zambia using door-to-door marketing of a home water puri…cation solution. We …nd that higher prices screen out those who use the product less. By contrast, we …nd no consistent evidence of sunk-cost e¤ects. JEL classi…cation: C93, D12, L11, L31 Keywords: chlorination, water-borne diseases, sunk-cost e¤ect, non-pro…t strategy, social marketing We are grateful to Gary Becker, Stefano DellaVigna, Dave Donaldson, Erik Eyster, Matthew Gentzkow, Jerry Green, Ali Hortaçsu, Emir Kamenica, Dean Karlan, Larry Katz, Michael Kremer, Stephen Leider, Steve Levitt, John List, Kevin M. -
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The Age of Milton Friedman
Journal of Economic Literature 2009, 47:1, 123–135 http:www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.47.1.123 The Age of Milton Friedman Andrei Shleifer* Between 1980 and 2005, as the world embraced free market policies, living stan- dards rose sharply, while life expectancy, educational attainment, and democracy improved and absolute poverty declined. Is this a coincidence? A collection of essays edited by Balcerowicz and Fischer argues that indeed reliance on free market forces is key to economic growth. A book by Stiglitz and others disagrees. I review and com- pare the two arguments. 1. Introduction also embraced free market policies. All three of these leaders professed inspiration from he last quarter century has witnessed the work of Milton Friedman. It is natural, Tremarkable progress of mankind. The then, to refer to the last quarter century as world’s per capita inflation-adjusted income the Age of Milton Friedman. rose from $5,400 in 1980 to $8,500 in 2005. The association between free mar- Schooling and life expectancy grew rapidly, ket policies and social progress notwith- while infant mortality and poverty fell just standing, economists remain divided in as fast. Compared to 1980, many more coun- their assessments of this Age. Two recent tries in the world are democratic today. books illustrate the divisions. A collection The last quarter century also saw wide of papers edited by Leszek Balcerowicz acceptance of free market policies in both and Stanley Fischer—Living Standards rich and poor countries: from private own- and the Wealth of Nations: Successes and ership, to free trade, to responsible budgets, Failures in Real Convergence (MIT Press, to lower taxes. -
Andrei Shleifer Murphy Kevin M
Epstein Larry G Hynes J Allan Karni Edi Smith V Kerry Bolton Patrick Anna L. Paulson Lach Saul Robin Brooks Robert M. Townsend Jeremy Bulow Isabel Correia Bresnahan Timothy F Rosemary Avery Joseph G. Altonji Peterson David W Chen Chau-nan Bhagwan Chowdhry Lars Peter Hansen Stern Robert M Bertin Amy L Weingast Barry R Alan Mathios Cabreales Antonio Lang Larry H P Donald Kenkel Barton H. Hamilton Zuber Richard A Hugo Hopenhayn Robert B. Ekelund Jr. Michael Greenstone David Dranove Saks Daniel H Deaton Angus Findlay Ronald Philip DeCicca Cropper Maureen L. Shiller Robert J Assaf Razin Harold G. Moulton Dooley Martin D S. Lawrence Bigelow Francesco Drago Robert D. Tollison Greif Avner Myron W. Watkins C. Arnold Anderson Tai-wei Hu Alon Brav Whalley John Bruno Biais Postlewaite Andrew Tano Santos Sanjeev Goyal Cole Harold L Ehrenberg Ronald G Day Richard H Neumann George R Harrison Glenn W Ricardo J. Caballero Thomas Sargent Christina Paxson J. David Brown Bhattacharya Sudipto McMillan John Jonathan M. Karpoff Rucker Randal R Bronars Stephen G Luigi Guiso Hubbard R Glenn Diebold Francis X Wolfe Barbara L Lior Menzly Leffler Keith B Luigi Pistaferri Paul Gomme Friedman Daniel Lewis Tracy R Stiglitz Joseph E Wellisz Stanislaw Hoffer George E Firms Zeckhauser Richard J Eswaran Mukesh Orazio P. Attanasio Thomas Cooley Hodrick Robert J Kerwin Kofi Charles Vernon Henderson John Knowles Blair Douglas H Schwert G William Deaton Angus S Zellner Arnold Rothkopf Michael H Wolpin Kenneth I Michael Mann French Kenneth R Michael P. Keane Cass DavidMilgrom Paul Hansen Lars Peter Frey Bruno S StarkRosenzweig Oded Mark R Andrew W. -
JEFFREY WURGLER NYU Stern School of Business 44 West 4Th Street, Suite 9-190 New York, NY 10012-1126 Telephone: (212) 998-0367
JEFFREY WURGLER NYU Stern School of Business Telephone: (212) 998-0367 44 West 4th Street, Suite 9-190 Fax: (212) 995-4233 New York, NY 10012-1126 Email: [email protected] EMPLOYMENT New York University, Stern School of Business Nomura Professor of Finance, 2009 – Research Professor of Finance, 2007 – 2009 Associate Professor of Finance, 2005 – 2006 Charles Schaefer Family Fellow, 2003 – 2006 Assistant Professor of Finance, 2001 – 2005 University of Oxford, Said Business School Fellow, 2001 – 2002 Yale University, School of Management Robert and Candice Haas Assistant Professor of Corporate Finance, 2000 – 2001 Assistant Professor of Finance, 1999 – 2000 EDUCATION Harvard University Ph.D., M.A. Business Economics, 1999 Stanford University B.A.S. (honors) Economics, Mathematical and Computational Sciences, 1994 RESEARCH AND TEACHING INTERESTS Corporate Finance, Asset Pricing, Behavioral Finance OTHER ACADEMIC AND SERVICE ACTIVITIES Academic Director, NYU Stern-Shanghai M.S. Degree in Quantitative Finance, 2016 – Director, American Finance Association, 2014 – 2017 Editorial Committee Ethics Committee (co-drafter, Code of Ethics); ongoing member Investments Committee NYU Stern Senior Faculty Peer Review Committee, 2014 – 2016, 2017 – 2018 Senior Academic Fellow, Asian Bureau of Financial and Economic Research, 2012 – 2018 Associate Editor, Critical Finance Review, 2012 – Associate Editor, Journal of Financial Economics, 2011 – Associate Editor, Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2011 – 2013, 2013 – 2016 Special Issue Editor, Journal of -
JEFFREY WURGLER NYU Stern School of Business 44 West 4Th Street, Suite 9-190 New York, NY 10012-1126 Telephone: (212) 998-0367
JEFFREY WURGLER NYU Stern School of Business Telephone: (212) 998-0367 44 West 4th Street, Suite 9-190 Fax: (212) 995-4233 New York, NY 10012-1126 Email: [email protected] EMPLOYMENT New York University, Stern School of Business Nomura Professor of Finance, 2009 – Research Professor of Finance, 2007 – 2009 Associate Professor of Finance, 2005 – 2006 Charles Schaefer Family Fellow, 2003 – 2006 Assistant Professor of Finance, 2001 – 2005 University of Oxford, Said Business School Fellow, 2001 – 2002 Yale University, School of Management Robert and Candice Haas Assistant Professor of Corporate Finance, 2000 – 2001 Assistant Professor of Finance, 1999 – 2000 EDUCATION Harvard University Ph.D., M.A. Business Economics, 1999 Stanford University B.A.S. (honors) Economics, Mathematical and Computational Sciences, 1994 RESEARCH AND TEACHING INTERESTS Behavioral Finance, Corporate Finance, Asset Pricing OTHER ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES Director, American Finance Association, 2014 – Investments Committee, Ethics Committee Senior Academic Fellow, Asian Bureau of Financial and Economic Research, 2012 – Associate Editor, Journal of Financial Economics, 2011 – Associate Editor, Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2011 – Special Issue Editor, Journal of Financial Economics, May 2012 NYU Stern Promotion and Tenure Committee, 2010 – 2013 Associate Editor, Management Science, 2009 – 2013 Research Associate, NBER, Corporate Finance, 2009 – Asset Pricing, 2009 – Editorial Board, SSRN, Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2008 – History of Finance, 2008 – NYU Stern Finance PhD Program, Chair, 2008-2009 Co-Chair, 2007-2008 Faculty Research Fellow, NBER, Corporate Finance, 2003 – 2008 AWARDS AND RELATED Plenary Speaker, Tokyo RBF World Conference, 2015 Keynote Speaker, Duisenberg School of Finance, 2014 Jensen Prize, Second Place, Journal of Financial Economics, 2012 Keynote Speaker, Midwest Finance Association, Orlando, 2014 Graham and Dodd Scroll, Financial Analysts Journal, 2012 William F. -
CURRICULUM VITAE José A
November, 2015 CURRICULUM VITAE José A. Scheinkman Department of Economics Columbia University ACADEMIC BACKGROUND B.A. in Economics (1969) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. M.S. in Mathematics (1970) Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Brazil. M.A. in Economics (1973) University of Rochester, Rochester, New York. Ph.D. in Economics (1974) University of Rochester, Rochester, New York. HONORS Fellow, Econometric Society (elected 1978). Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences (elected 1992). Docteur honoris causa, Université Paris-Dauphine (2001). Blaise Pascal Chair, France (2002). Fellow, John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation (2007). Member, National Academy of Sciences (elected 2008), Chair of Section 54 (Economic Sciences) (2012- 2015). Corresponding Member, Brazilian Academy of Sciences (elected 2012) CME Group-MSRI Prize in Innovative Quantitative Applications (2014) ACADEMIC POSITIONS Present Positions: Columbia University: Charles and Lynn Zhang Professor of Economics 2015- Princeton University: Theodore A. Wells '29 Professor of Economics Emeritus 2013- Past Positions: Columbia University: Edwin W. Rickert Professor of Economics 2013-2015. Princeton University: Theodore A. Wells '29 Professor of Economics 1999- 2013. University of Chicago: Alvin H. Baum Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, 1997-1999, Chairman of Department of Economics, 1995-1998, Alvin H. Baum Professor of Economics, 1987-1997, Professor of Economics, 1981-1986, Associate Professor of Economics, 1976-1981, Assistant Professor of Economics, 1973-1976, Post- Doctoral Fellow in Political Economy, 1973-1974. Visiting Professorships: Collège de France, 2008; EHESS (Paris), 2003-2004; Princeton University, 1998; CEREMADE, Université Paris-Dauphine, 1985- 1994; EPGE, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Rio de Janeiro) 1978-1979; Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada (Rio de Janeiro), 1978-1979.