The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova Editors Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott Hamilton, Daniel and Mangott, Gerhard (eds.), The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova (Washington, DC: Center for Transatlantic Relations, 2007) © Center for Transatlantic Relations/Austrian Institute for International Affairs, 2007 Center for Transatlantic Relations American Consortium on EU Studies EU Center of Excellence Washington DC The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Suite 525 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel: (202) 663-5880 Fax: (202) 663-5879 Email: [email protected] http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu Austrian Institute for International Affairs Operngasse 20B A-1040 Vienna Tel: +43/1/581 11 06 Fax: +43/1/581 11 06-10 Email: [email protected] http://www.oiip.at Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Ungargasse 37 A-1031 Vienna Tel: +43/1/50175 400 Fax: +43/1/50175 491 Email: [email protected] http://www.marshallplan.at ISBN 0: 978-0-9788821-3-6 ISBN 13: 0-9788821-3-X Table of Contents Preface . v Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott The Lands In Between: The New Eastern Europe in the Twenty-First Century . 1 Angela E. Stent Shifting Ground Prospects for the Political and Economic Development of Ukraine . 25 Taras Kuzio Neighborhood in Flux: EU-Belarus-Russia Prospects for the European Union’s Belarus Policy . 55 Rainer Lindner Moldova’s Uncertain Future . 77 International Crisis Group Economic and Energy Perspectives Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova: Economic Developments and Integration Prospects . 127 Vasily Astrov and Peter Havlik Ukraine and Belarus: Their Energy Dependence on Russia and their Roles as Transit Countries . 149 Roland Götz Ukraine and Its Neighbors Ukraine’s Role in Changing Europe . 171 Elena Kovalova Russia and Ukraine . 195 Dmitri Trenin iv The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova Ukraine and the European Union . 215 Michael Emerson Ukraine and NATO . 239 F. Stephen Larrabee The New Eastern Europe? Deconstructing a Region . 261 Gerhard Mangott About the Contributors . 287 Preface Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott The nations of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova are the new Eastern Europe — sandwiched between a larger European Union and a resur- gent Russia. Historically the object of fluid and volatile geopolitical shifts, none has ever existed as a state within its current borders, and none enjoys consensus on its respective national identity. All are located along key military, transportation and energy corridors linking Europe to Eurasia. Their problems — infectious diseases, organized crime, drug and human trafficking, pollution and illegal migration — directly spill over into the EU. Their success could have a beneficial impact on the development of democracy, pluralism and the rule of law throughout the post-Soviet space. Their future will help shape Russia’s own destiny and ultimately determine where Europe ends. In this volume leading European, Russian and American scholars address the dynamics of the new Eastern Europe, examine whether it can justifiably be described as a coherent region, and identify major interests of these nations and key external actors.Their analysis is the result of a collaborative research project organized by the Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced Interna- tional Studies, the Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP) in Vienna, and the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation. We would like to thank the authors for their engagement and their contributions, and our own colleagues at CTR and OIIP for their energy and assistance with this project. Particular thanks go to our colleagues at the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation for their encour- agement and unflagging support of this initiative. Each author writes in his or her personal capacity; the views expressed are those of the authors and not of their institutions. The Lands In Between: The New Eastern Europe in the Twenty-First Century Angela E. Stent At the end of the twentieth century, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus emerged from the disintegrating Soviet Union in search of a usable past and a viable national identity that would enable them to benefit to the fullest from the statehood that had been thrust upon them. Histor- ically the object of fluid and volatile geopolitical shifts, lying in an area contested by Russia and Germany, they have faced challenges from both the East and the West. None of them had ever existed as states with these borders, nor did they have a tradition of consensus on what constituted their respective national identities. Indeed, they were the legacies of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that carved up Romania and Poland. Ukraine, with two brief previous episodes of independence, was divided between East and West, both of which subscribed to dif- ferent historical narratives and definitions of national identity. Moldova, created in 1945 as a Soviet republic, faced a breakaway region that wanted to be united with Russia and parts of its population who sought unification with Romania. Belarus had no history as an independent entity and even less consensus on national identity. In short, the emergence of the new eastern Europe was not auspi- cious, and it was unclear whether these new states would survive in their new boundaries. Yet, as the twenty-first century enters its second decade, they have survived and are slowly developing a more viable consensus on nationhood and statehood, despite the enormous prob- lems they face. Their future development and ability to find a viable modus vivendi with their two powerful neighbors — Russia and the European Union — will determine whether indeed post cold war Europe will be “whole and free.” 2 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova The future of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus is important because they are located on key military, transportation and energy corridors that link Eurasia and Europe. Ukraine is particularly significant, both because of its size and resources and because 80 percent of Central Asian and Russian gas flows through Ukrainian territory into Central and Western Europe. Bordering on the expanded EU, their “soft” security problems — infectious diseases, organized crime, drug and human trafficking, pollution and illegal migration — directly spill over into Europe and impact its development. On a more positive note, their successes — for instance, Ukraine’s Orange Revolution — could have a beneficial impact on the development of democracy, pluralism and the rule of law in other post-Soviet states. They can, in short, be a source of stability or instability for wider Europe. Their ability to deal with conflicting national and sub-national identities, and Europe’s willingness to re-examine questions of future enlargement will ulti- mately determine where Europe ends. How that issue is resolved will also have a significant impact on Russia’s future and whether it pur- sues a more isolationist path or engages with Euro-Atlantic structures. Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova share many features in common with the other states of Eurasia. Most of these countries practice some form of “managed” democracy, with elections that are competitive only in appearance, no agreed succession mechanisms, nontransparent eco- nomic systems rife with corruption, rule by biological or political clans, and close ties between political and business elites. Belarus is on one end of the spectrum, with rule by an authoritarian leader who represses the opposition, and Ukraine on the other end of the spectrum, having broken out of the post-Soviet syndrome during the Orange Revolution and introduced free, fair, competitive elections and a free media. Moldova, which has re-elected communists yet seeks closer ties to Europe, has a political system that lies somewhere between the more democratic Ukraine and the more repressive Belarus. Although these three countries are referred to as the “Western Newly Independent States (NIS)”, it is not clear that they form a region in terms of common goals or consensus on interaction with each other. Apart from their common Soviet legacy and geographic contiguity, it is premature to speak of them as a region. Moreover, they do not consider themselves as such. In order to understand where their future might lie, it is necessary first to examine their past and the The Lands In Between: The New Eastern Europe in the Twenty-First Century 3 way in which their nationhood and statehood have developed. Then we will discuss the impact of their current situation on their future relations with their immediate neighbors — Russia and the EU — and with the United States. How might very different domestic trajecto- ries affect their future ties with Russia and the West? To what extent do developments in one country affect those in the other two? Will they be able to resolve contested territorial issues, such as Transnistria and Crimea, in ways that preserve their territorial integrity? Will Belarus and Russia merge? What impact can the outside world have on these issues? The Past as Prologue: Identities, Regions and Nations Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus are accidental nation-states, inas- much as they are the product of postwar Soviet geopolitical gerryman- dering which survived the breakup of the USSR. In order to under- stand their current and future prospects, it is instructive to take a brief historical tour d’horizon examining how their respective national iden- tities emerged and developed.1 Key issues are: what are