Impact Evaluation: Guatemala Country Report
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Impact Evaluation: Guatemala Country Report By Susan Berk-Seligson, Ph.D. Diana Orcés, Ph.D. Georgina Pizzolitto, M.A. Mitchell A. Seligson, Ph.D. Carole Wilson, Ph.D. The Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) Vanderbilt University This study was performed with support from the Program in Democracy and Governance of the United States Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the point of view of the United States Agency for International Development. Revised December 2014 Impact Evaluation Guatemala ‐ Report Contents List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 List of Tables........................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................... 9 I. Overview ........................................................................................................................................................................... 9 II. Main Findings ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 III. Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Part 1: Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................. 17 I. Evaluation Design and Data Sources ............................................................................................................................. 17 Sources of Baseline Data Used in this Evaluation ........................................................................................................ 17 Sources of Data for Mid-point Evaluation .................................................................................................................... 19 Sources of Data for Final Evaluation ............................................................................................................................ 19 Overall Summary of Quantitative Data Sources, by Round .......................................................................................... 19 Qualitative Component of the Study .............................................................................................................................. 20 II. Difference-in-Difference Design ................................................................................................................................... 22 III. The Design of the Study: A Multi-Site “Cluster Randomized Experiment” (CRE) ...................................................... 25 Selection of Study Area .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Part 2: Why Study Violence Prevention? Central America, a Violent Region ............................................................... 31 Part 3: The CARSI Interventions and Expected Impacts................................................................................................. 35 I. USAID CARSI Interventions in Guatemala .................................................................................................................... 35 II. Anticipated Impacts: Mixed methods and key dependent variables .............................................................................. 36 Part 4: Findings: Impact Evaluation, Guatemala ............................................................................................................. 39 I. Crime Victimization and Violence .................................................................................................................................. 39 II. Perception of Insecurity ................................................................................................................................................ 46 III. Neighborhood Disorder and Youth Loitering (Including Youth Vulnerability to Crime and Gang Activity) .............. 50 Gang Fights as a Problem ............................................................................................................................................. 52 Crime Prevention Measures .......................................................................................................................................... 54 IV. General Perceptions of Neighborhood Collective Action ............................................................................................ 55 V. Role of Institutions: National Police ............................................................................................................................. 56 Satisfaction with Police Performance............................................................................................................................ 59 VI. Social Capital and Democracy ..................................................................................................................................... 61 Democratic Values ........................................................................................................................................................ 61 Interpersonal Trust ........................................................................................................................................................ 61 Satisfaction with Democracy ......................................................................................................................................... 64 VII. Evaluation of Government Handling of Citizen Safety ............................................................................................... 66 Conclusions: Findings .......................................................................................................................................................... 71 Conclusions: Policy Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 73 References ............................................................................................................................................................................. 75 3 Impact Evaluation Guatemala ‐ Report List of Figures Figure 1. Illustration of Difference-in-Difference Estimation ................................................................................................ 22 Figure 2. Key Variables in Treatment and Control Communities, 2011-2014 ....................................................................... 24 Figure 3. Selected Municipalities by USAID in Guatemala ................................................................................................... 28 Figure 4. Homicide Rates in Central America ......................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 5. The Best Way to Fight Crime and Violence in Guatemala ..................................................................................... 32 Figure 6. Respondent-Reported Robberies in the Neighborhoods ......................................................................................... 39 Figure 7. Extortion in the neighborhood in the past 12 months ............................................................................................. 41 Figure 8. Respondent-Reported Murders in the Neighborhoods ............................................................................................ 42 Figure 9. Sale of illegal drugs in the community in the past 12 months ................................................................................. 43 Figure 10. Marginal Change in the sale of illegal drugs in the community in the past year................................................... 45 Figure 11. Perception of Insecurity 2004-2014 ...................................................................................................................... 47 Figure 12. Perception of Insecurity (Predicted Value) ........................................................................................................... 47 Figure 13. Perception of Insecurity when walking alone at night .......................................................................................... 49 Figure 14. Perception of Youth in Gangs or Maras as a Problem ......................................................................................... 51 Figure 15. Perception of Youth Loitering as a Problem ........................................................................................................ 52 Figure 16. Perception of Gangs or Maras Fights as a Problem ............................................................................................. 53 Figure 17. Avoidance of Dangerous Areas ........................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 18. Neighborhood Organization for Crime Prevention .............................................................................................