APPENDIX a Aviation Activity Forecast Technical Report
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APPENDIX A Aviation Activity Forecast Technical Report This page is left intentionally blank. Aviation Activity Forecast Technical Report Prepared by: HNTB Corporation June 5, 2012 Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport 2020 Improvements Environmental Assessment/ Environmental Assessment Worksheet This page is left intentionally blank. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 Economic Trends ...................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Population ....................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Employment .................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Income and Per Capita Income ...................................................................... 6 2 Historical Aviation Activity and Current Trends ......................................................... 6 2.1 Passenger Activity .......................................................................................... 6 2.2 Aircraft Operations ........................................................................................ 10 3 General Forecast Assumptions ............................................................................... 12 3.1 Unconstrained Forecasts .............................................................................. 12 3.2 Regulatory Assumptions ............................................................................... 12 3.3 Economic Assumptions ................................................................................. 12 3.4 International Political Environment ................................................................ 12 3.5 Security Environment .................................................................................... 12 3.6 Fuel Assumptions ......................................................................................... 13 3.7 Environmental Factors .................................................................................. 13 3.8 National Airspace System ............................................................................. 13 3.9 Airline Consolidation ..................................................................................... 13 3.10 New Entrants ................................................................................................ 13 3.11 Airline Alliances ............................................................................................. 13 3.12 Airline Strategy .............................................................................................. 14 4 Domestic Passenger Forecasts .............................................................................. 14 4.1 Methodology, Assumptions, and Data Sources ............................................ 14 4.2 Yield and Fare Projections ............................................................................ 15 4.3 Passenger Origination Forecast ................................................................... 16 Aviation Activity Forecast i Appendix A Technical Report 4.3.1 Base Domestic Originations .................................................................. 16 4.3.2 Originations Resulting from Southwest Airlines Service ........................ 19 4.4 Domestic Enplanement Forecasts ................................................................ 20 4.5 Domestic Projections by Market ................................................................... 22 4.5.1 Load Factor and Seat Departure Forecast ............................................ 23 4.5.2 Seat Departures by Market .................................................................... 23 4.6 Air Service Projections .................................................................................. 24 4.7 Domestic Passenger Forecast Summary ..................................................... 26 5 International Passenger Forecasts ......................................................................... 27 5.1 Methodology, Assumptions, and Data Sources ............................................ 27 5.2 Forecasts by International Region ................................................................ 29 5.3 MSP Forecasts by Region ............................................................................ 29 5.4 MSP International Enplanement Forecast .................................................... 29 5.5 International Passenger Projections by Market ............................................ 31 5.5.1 Existing Markets .................................................................................... 31 5.5.2 New Markets .......................................................................................... 31 5.5.3 Load Factor and Seat Departure Forecast ............................................ 32 5.6 Air Service Projections .................................................................................. 33 5.7 Summary ....................................................................................................... 34 6 Charter Enplanements and Aircraft Operations ...................................................... 35 6.1 Charter Passengers ...................................................................................... 35 6.2 Charter Aircraft Operations ........................................................................... 36 7 Summary of Passenger Forecasts .......................................................................... 37 8 Air Cargo Tonnage and Aircraft Operations ............................................................ 38 8.1 Air Cargo Tonnage ........................................................................................ 38 Aviation Activity Forecast ii Appendix A Technical Report 8.2 All-Cargo Aircraft Operations ........................................................................ 40 9 General Aviation and Military Operations ................................................................ 40 9.1 General Aviation ........................................................................................... 40 9.2 Military ........................................................................................................... 43 10 Summary of Annual Forecasts ................................................................................ 45 11 Design Day Gated Flight Schedules ....................................................................... 49 11.1 Preparation of Flight Schedules .................................................................... 49 11.2 Assignment of Gates ..................................................................................... 50 12 Peak Activity Forecasts ........................................................................................... 52 12.1 Hourly Distribution Summaries ..................................................................... 52 12.2 Peak Hour Summaries .................................................................................. 53 12.3 International Peak Summaries ...................................................................... 53 13 Gate Requirements ................................................................................................. 54 14 Forecast Comparison .............................................................................................. 56 15 Factors that Could Impact the EA Forecast ............................................................ 58 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure A.4-1 Historical and Projected Originations at MSP .................................................... 19 LIST OF TABLES Page Table A.1.1 Summary of Socioeconomic Data and Forecasts: Seven-County Metropolitan Council Area .............................................................................................................. 4 Table A.2.1 Historical Originating Passengers at MSP ................................................................ 7 Table A.2.2 Historical Revenue Passenger Enplanements at MSP ............................................. 8 Table A.2.3 Historical Aircraft Operations at MSP ...................................................................... 11 Table A.4.1 Base Forecast of Annual Domestic Originations at MSP ........................................ 17 Table A.4.2 Base Case Forecast of Domestic Enplanements at MSP ....................................... 22 Aviation Activity Forecast iii Appendix A Technical Report Table A.4.3 Forecast of Domestic Scheduled Passenger Aircraft Operations and Seat Departures at MSP .................................................................................................. 27 Table A.5.1 Forecast of International Enplanements at MSP .................................................... 31 Table A.5.2 Forecast of International Scheduled Passenger Aircraft Operations and Seat Departures at MSP .................................................................................................. 35 Table A.7.1 Forecast of Annual Domestic and International Revenue Enplanements at MSP.. 37 Table A.8.1 Forecast of Enplaned and Deplaned Air Cargo (Short Tons) at MSP .................... 39 Table A.9.1 Summary of MSP Based Aircraft Forecast ............................................................. 41 Table A.9.2 Forecast of Annual General Aviation Aircraft Operations ....................................... 42 Table A.9.3 Forecast of Annual Military Aircraft Operations at MSP .......................................... 44 Table A.10.1