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Airline Fleet Composition: Analysis and Planning

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Joana Filipa Silva Fernandes Carreira AIRLINE FLEET COMPOSITION: ANALYSIS AND PLANNING PhD Thesis in Doctoral Program in Transport Systems supervised by Professor António Pais Antunes and Professor Morton O’Kelly, presented to the Department of Civil Engineering of the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of the University of Coimbra December 2017 Joana Filipa Silva Fernandes Carreira AIRLINE FLEET COMPOSITION: ANALYSIS AND PLANNING PhD Thesis in Doctoral Program in Transport Systems supervised by Professor António Pais Antunes and Professor Morton O’Kelly, presented to the Department of Civil Engineering of the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of the University of Coimbra December 2017 [Page Intentionally Left Blank] FINANCIAL SUPPORT This research work was conducted under the MIT-Portugal Program and financed by “Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia” (FCT, Portugal) through the PhD scholarship with the following reference: SFRH / BD / 51937 / 2012. [Page Intentionally Left Blank] Airline Fleet Composition: Analysis and Planning ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Firstly, I want to sincerely thank Professor António Pais Antunes for all the guidance, availability and support. I am grateful for the knowledge you shared with me and I profoundly thank you for all the help and encouragement you gave me, so I could pursue and accomplish my goals. Thank you for your key role in the development of this work, I could not have done it without you. I would also like to thank Professor Morton O’Kelly for the support and supervision. Your help and assistance were fundamental and contributed greatly for the achievement and conclusion of this work. My deepest gratitude goes to Professor Guglielmo Lulli for the essential contributions and guidance provided during the development of this research. I definitely benefited from your vast knowledge and learned a lot from you. Thank you for providing me with valuable insights and for assisting me with my work in the best way possible. My thankfulness also goes to Professor Amedeo Odoni for receiving me at MIT, in Boston, and for supporting my research work. It was a pleasure and an honor to work alongside with you and to learn and grow from your extensive knowledge. Thank you for your kindness and support. I would also like to thank Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) and the MIT-Portugal Program for their financial support, which has allowed me to pursue my studies both in Portugal and in the United States, at MIT. Special reference must be made to the Faculty of Joana Silva Carreira v Airline Fleet Composition: Analysis and Planning ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Sciences and Technology of the University of Coimbra, for all the institutional and logistics support. A special thanks to my colleagues and friends at the Department of Civil Engineering, for the great times together and for the support you always gave me throughout these past years. Thank you for your friendship. I would also like to address a word of appreciation to my brother João and my friend Ana Brígida for helping with some final revision. Finally, I want to express my profound gratitude to my father Rui, my mother Madalena and my brother João. Thank you for always being there for me. Your unconditional love and support were definitely instrumental to my personal success in this journey. Thank you for always believing in my capabilities and for making me feel that I can accomplish anything I set my mind to. Joana Silva Carreira vi Airline Fleet Composition: Analysis and Planning TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS FINANCIAL SUPPORT ....................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................. xi LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. xiii ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ xv RESUMO .......................................................................................................................... xvii 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Scope of the Thesis ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objectives of the Work ............................................................................................... 5 1.3 Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................................ 6 1.4 Publications and Presentations .................................................................................... 8 2 RESEARCH BACKGROUND........................................................................................ 11 2.1 Fleet Planning Problem ............................................................................................. 11 2.1.1 Fleet Sizing vs. Fleet Composition ..................................................................... 11 2.1.2 General Overview .............................................................................................. 12 2.1.3 Fleet Planning Problem Combinations ............................................................... 14 2.1.4 Fleet Planning Optimization Models .................................................................. 19 2.2 Airline Fleet Planning Problem ................................................................................. 27 2.2.1 General Overview .............................................................................................. 28 2.2.2 Aircraft Leasing ................................................................................................. 34 2.2.3 Airline Fleet Planning Optimization Models ...................................................... 36 2.3 Research Gaps .......................................................................................................... 41 Joana Silva Carreira vii Airline Fleet Composition: Analysis and Planning TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 AIRCRAFT TYPES AND EVOLUTION ....................................................................... 45 3.1 Types of Aircraft ...................................................................................................... 45 3.1.1 Aircraft Manufacturers and Aircraft Type Characteristics .................................. 46 3.1.2 Evolution of Aviation and Aircraft Models ........................................................ 51 3.2 Composition and Evolution of Airlines’ Fleets ......................................................... 60 3.2.1 World’s Largest Airlines .................................................................................... 63 3.2.2 Airlines’ Efficiency, Productivity and Costs ...................................................... 67 3.2.3 Evolution of Airlines’ Fleets .............................................................................. 76 4 LONG-DISTANCE MODEL .......................................................................................... 87 4.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 87 4.2 Study Background .................................................................................................... 89 4.2.1 Flight Network .................................................................................................. 89 4.2.2 Passenger Demand ............................................................................................. 92 4.2.3 Aircraft Fleet ..................................................................................................... 95 4.3 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................ 97 4.4 Demand Forecast ...................................................................................................... 99 4.5 Optimization Model ................................................................................................ 102 4.5.1 Literature Overview ......................................................................................... 102 4.5.2 Model Formulation .......................................................................................... 104 4.6 Study Results .......................................................................................................... 110 4.6.1 Reference Case ................................................................................................ 113 4.6.2 Sensitivity Analysis ......................................................................................... 115 4.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 122 5 SHORT-DISTANCE MODEL ...................................................................................... 125 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 125 5.2 Case Study ............................................................................................................
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