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Role of Early Warning Systems in Conflict Prevention in Africa: Case UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI INSTITUTE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES ROLE OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS IN CONFLICT PREVENTION IN AFRICA: CASE STUDY OF THE ILEMI TRIANGLE PETERLINUS OUMA ODOTE REG NO- R80/96588/2014 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN INTERNATIONAL STUDIES. NOVEMBER 2016 DECLARATION This PhD dissertation is my original work and has not been presented for a degree in any other university. __________________________ __________________________ Peterlinus Ouma Odote DATE (Candidate) This PhD dissertation has been submitted for examination with our approval as the University of Nairobi supervisors: _______________________________ ________________________ Prof. Maria Nzomo DATE (First Supervisor) _______________________________ ________________________ Prof. Peter Kagwanja DATE (Second Supervisor) i DEDICATION To my wife Judith Linus Akedi, my daughter Tiffany Linus Adela and my Mother Monica Samba for the unconditional support during my study. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been accomplished with the support, encouragement and contribution of different people to whom I am sincerely grateful. First and foremost I would like to acknowledge the tireless guidance, patience, contribution, ideas and encouragement of my university supervisors, Prof. Maria Nzomo and Prof. Peter Kagwanja through the different phases of this work. Special acknowledgement is made to both of you for your dedication, unconditional support and mentorship throughout the programme. I also wish to thank the Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies (IDIS) staff for their contribution and efforts to ensure the completion of my research and the Ambassador Francis K Muthaura Foundation for awarding me a PhD Scholarship. I recognize the following individuals and organisations for their tremendous contribution to the successful completion of this study: My friends Prof. Omoka Wanakai, Prof. Sahaya G. Selvam, Dr. Elias Opong‘o, Dr. Kifle Wansamo, Elizabeth Atieno Rombo, Sheena McMullen and Naftali Ruttoh for their unwavering support, and for their efforts to help me access books for my literature review. Finally I wish to thank the Shalom Center for Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation (SCCRR) for introducing me to the communities in the Ilemi Triangle, and all other different participants of this research for their insights. iii ABSTRACT In the last four decades, the international peace agenda has been dominated by debates on conflict prevention. In Africa, the post-cold war era has witnessed a shift in emphasis from conflict management to conflict prevention. While conflict management focuses on armed aspects of conflict, conflict prevention endeavors to contain and resolve imminent conflicts by responding to visible signs and indicators. Essentially, the shift is necessitated by the shortcomings of the reactionary rather than proactive nature of conflict management approaches. Irrespective of the paradigm shift towards conflict prevention, Africa continues to witness persistent overt conflicts. This study therefore, primarily seeks to examine and analyze the role of early warning systems in conflict prevention in Africa. The adoption of early warning practice in conflict prevention has had its successes and failures. This clearly points out the need to scrutinize the current early warning systems available in Africa. Cases of success are evident in Sierra Leone, as well as the failure of the International community to contain the genocide in Rwanda. The study used the empirical case of the Ilemi Triangle; a conflict-hotspot contested by South Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya. This region is distinguished by the prevalence and persistence of armed conflict typified by both intra-state and inter-state wars. These conflicts have since gained renewed interest due to prospects of oil and other minerals. The study utilizes conflict prevention theory propounded by Michael S. Lund. Lund contends that the success of conflict prevention is contingent to the following three assumptions: early response to manifestations of danger; an all-inclusive, coordinated process to mitigate tension or threats to violence; and concerted attempts to transform the root causes of violence. This study therefore, is based on the assumption that, weak early warning systems lead to conflict escalation. Hence, the study involved conducting a survey research with the Ilemi Triangle as a case study. The sample population comprised of 316 adult male and female from the Turkana, Didinga, Toposa, Nyangatom and Dassanech pastoral communities that straddle the Ilemi Triangle. The research employed both qualitative and quantitative research techniques which comprised of data collected by use of questionnaires, focus group discussions, interviews and observation. The data collected was then analysed using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The findings of this survey indicate that the persistence of overt conflicts in Africa is majorly caused by: marginalization; lack of official state presence; environmental scarcity (water, pasture and land for growing crops); disputed boundaries; and, long standing hatred between ethnic communities. From the research findings, it is evident that, violence is preventable and that emergences of early warning systems have a positive impact on conflicts in Africa. The study further points out that, strengthening and contextualizing existing early warning systems will lead to a significant reduction of conflicts in Africa. As such, this study is a contribution to the academia and policy on possible ways of strengthening the available early warning systems in Africa. Future researches need to delve deeper into methodologies of incorporating people at the grass-roots in the contextualization and operationalization of early warning systems. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................. i DEDICATION ................................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................... x LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... xi ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................................... xii ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY ...................................................... 1 1.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Statement of the Research Problem ..................................................................................... 4 1.2.1. Research Questions........................................................................................................ 5 1.3. Research Objectives ............................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1. Overall Objective ........................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2. Specific Objectives ........................................................................................................ 6 1.4. Justification of the Study ...................................................................................................... 6 1.4.1. Academic Justification .................................................................................................. 6 1.4.2. Policy Justification ........................................................................................................ 7 1.5. Literature Review ................................................................................................................. 8 1.5.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 8 1.5.2. Historical Trends in the Development of Conflict Early Warning and Response ......... 8 1.5.3. Phases of Conflict and the Position of Early Warning ................................................ 10 1.5.4. Learning from the Previous Mistakes: Case of Rwanda ............................................. 12 1.5.5. The Response of the International Community ........................................................... 14 1.5.6. The Role of Significant Others .................................................................................... 19 1.6. Theoretical Framework ...................................................................................................... 21 1.7. Research Hypotheses.......................................................................................................... 23 1.8. Methodology .....................................................................................................................
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