Vale of White Horse
Overview of evidence
August 2015
District Data Analysis Service 1 Margaret Melling, mmelling@oxford.gov.uk Introduction
• Recent review of.. 1. Population growth 2. Changing population profile This presentation 3. Jobs, businesses and commuting highlights key trends 4. Housing 5. Health and wellbeing 6. Skills of young people 7. Access to services and community safety
• Data from the Office of National Statistics, or from organisations including Public Health England, Sport England, Department of Work and Pensions, Department for Business Innovation and Skills, Department for Education, Department for the Environment and Climate Change and Oxfordshire County Council. • Data for new wards had not yet been released by the Office for National Statistics • Further information is available from the district data service at www.oxford.gov.uk/districtdataservice and from Oxfordshire Insight at insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 2 Vale of White Horse – a rural district
• Vale of White Horse is the 10th most rural district in the South East region (out of 67) with a population of 2.2 people per hectare compared with 4.6 people per hectare across the South East and 4.2 across England1. • The small area rural-urban classification2 for Vale of White Horse shows that just over a third (39%) of the population live in rural areas, outside the main towns of Abingdon, Wantage and Grove, and the area adjacent to Oxford including North Hinksey and Appleton and Cumnor wards.
Vale of White Horse: resident population by rural-urban classification2
Vale of White Horse
Source: 1 ONS 2014 mid-year population estimates 2classification by output area; ONS Census 2011 table KS101 Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 3 Most rapid population growth between 1931 and 1971
Total resident population (current district boundaries)
+13,000 +7,200 per Vale of per decade White +760 per decade decade Horse
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 Source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk AN AGEING POPULATION
5 Over the past 30 years, the population of Vale of White Horse has aged
From 1984 to 2014… Vale of White Horse: 1984 to 2014 population by age • the total number 85 of Vale of White Horse residents Post war baby boom increased by 18% • aged 0-14 increased by 9% 1960s baby boom
(+1,800) Post war baby boom • aged 65+ increased by 88% 1960s baby boom (+11,400)
Source: ONS mid year estimates
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 6 Size of oldest population group is expected to continue to grow
• By 2037 the number of people aged 85+ living in Vale of White Horse is expected to reach 9,000, almost three times the number in this age group in 2013. • This growth is at a higher rate than the national average (+173% in Vale of White Horse vs +148% in England). • Proportionately those aged 85+ represented 1% of the district’s total population in 1993 and 3% in 2013. This is predicted to rise to 6% by 2037.
9,000 Projection Historical estimate
3,300 1,700
2037
Source: ONS sub-national population projections
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 7 Health and lifestyle indicators show children and adults in Vale of White Horse were similar to or above average
Health and lifestyle indicators from 2015 Public Health profile for VALE OF WHITE HORSE compared with South East average
CHILDREN
ADULTS
Source: Health Profiles, Public Health England, published 6 July 2015 Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 8 Most “disease and poor health indicators” also better than average
Disease and poor health indicators from 2015 Public Health profile for VALE OF WHITE HORSE compared with South East average
Source: Health Profiles, Public Health England, published 6 July 2015 Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 9 Vale of White Horse ranks poorly on access to services
• 16 of the 89 lower super output areas* in Vale of White Horse are in the 10% most deprived areas in England on the measure of access to services** – all in rural areas.
*Lower Super Output areas are used for the reporting of small area statistics and typically include a population of between 1,000 and 3,000 **The geographical barriers to services domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation includes road distance to GP surgery, post office, primary school and supermarket / convenience store. Note: the Indices of Deprivation are being updated and revised data is due to be released in summer 2015 Source: Department for Communities and Local Government, Mapping District Data Analysis Service hosted by Oxford City Council
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 10 A significant number of older people in rural areas are living with a disability and without access to a car • According to the 2011 Census, 9,275 residents of Vale of White Horse were aged 65 and over and living with a disability (activities limited by health “a little” or “a lot”) • Of these 3,433 (37%) were living in rural wards. • A number of these older rural residents in poor health: 882, did not have access to a car.
882 residents in rural Vale of White Horse with activities limited by poor health have no car
Source: ONS Census 2011, table LC3407, rural-urban classification by ward
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 11 CHANGING HOME OWNERSHIP
12 Cheapest market housing remaining unaffordable for lower paid workers
• In 2013 in Vale of White Horse the cheapest (lower quartile) market housing was 8.33 times a lower band salary. • The Vale of White Horse ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings remains well above the national average.
Vale of White Horse: Ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings
8.33
6.45
Source: Live tables on housing market and house prices, DCLG
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 13 Growth in private rented households
• As of 2011, there were 49,400 occupied households in Vale of White Horse, 72% of which were owned in full or with a mortgage. • Between 2001 and 2011 the total number of households in Vale of White Horse increased by 3,600 (+8%). • The sector with the greatest number and percentage increase was households that are privately rented
+4% 49,400 occupied Growth in all households +12% households = +8%
+29%
Source: ONS Census 2001 KS18, Census 2011 KS402 Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 14 More families with children now in private rented than social rented accommodation • The number of private rented households occupied by families with dependent children in Vale of White Horse increased from 1,730 households in 2001 to 2,590 in 2011, a growth of 50%. • The number of families with children in private rented households in Vale of White Horse is now above the number of families in social rented housing.
Households with dependent children in social rented Households with dependent children in private rented accommodation, 2001 to 2011 accommodation, 2001 to 2011
+50% +16%
Source: ONS, Census 2001 table T08 and Census 2011 table LC4412 Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 ECONOMY AND TRAVEL PATTERNS
16 Jobs at a similar level to early 2000s
• As of 2013, the total number of jobs in Vale of White Horse district was 66,000. • Between 2012 and 2013 the number of jobs in the district stayed at a similar level.
Source: ONS (from nomis)
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 17 The number of Vale of White Horse residents claiming unemployment benefit continues to fall • As of May 2015, 377 residents of Vale of White Horse were claiming job seeker allowance. This is well below the post recession peak of 1,489. • The number of male claimants has fallen at a faster rate than females. • This is likely to have Jan 2010 1,489 been influenced by the transfer of people claiming lone parent income support to unemployment benefits in 2009 and 2010. May 2015 377
Source: DWP
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 18 Type of job seeker allowance claimants
• Out of a total of 320 claimants in July 2015 in Vale of White Horse.. – around half (150, 47%) were seeking jobs in Sales and Customer Service occupations (retail). – a third (105, 33%) were aged 50 and over
Vale of White Horse JSA Claimants by occupation sought and age (July 2015)
Source: DWP
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 19 Top sources of commuters (inflow to Vale) Inbound and outbound commuting have each increased 24,754 inbound +2,961 since 2001 • Between 2001 and 2011 inbound and outbound commuting to Vale of White Horse each increased • More residents from West Oxfordshire, Swindon and West Berkshire and Reading are commuting into Vale of White Top commuting destinations (outflow from Vale) Horse • More Vale of White Horse residents are commuting out to Oxford and fewer are commuting out to Swindon 25,654 outbound +1,484 since 2001
Source: ONS 2001 Census table T103 and T10; 2011 Census table WU03 From joint Travel to Work briefing available on Oxfordshire Insight Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 20 High % commuting to Oxford in some areas of the district
• According to the Census 2011 survey, 21% of commuters in Vale of White Horse travelled to Oxford to work. • The area with the highest proportion was adjacent to Oxford including South and North Hinksey with 52% Oxford commuting to Oxford.
Middle layer super output areas
Source: ONS Census 2011 table WU02
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 21 64% of commuters to Science Vale live in South Oxfordshire or Vale of White Horse districts
Number of people by local authority of Areas of Oxfordshire with highest % of residence commuting to work to Science Vale people commuting to Science Vale (Harwell, Milton Park, Culham) Census 2011
64% 8% 4% 4%
Total = 18,600
Source: ONS Census 2011 table WU01
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 22 Rates of self employment and home working are highest in rural areas
Self employed by Working from lower layer super home by lower layer output area England average = 14% super output area England average = 5.4% Vale average = 14.4% Vale average = 7.1%
Source: ONS Census 2011 table QS601 © Crown Copyright and database right 2015 Ordnance Survey 100019348 Lower layer super output areas are a statistical geography used mainly for reporting Census data and have an average of around 1,500 residents and 650 households Source: ONS Census 2011 table QS701 Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 23 Key issues for Vale of White Horse
Key issues for Vale of White Horse from this 2015 review of evidence are that…
1. The district has an ageing population especially in rural areas. By 2037 the number of people aged 85 and over in Vale of White Horse is expected to reach 9,000, almost three times the number in this age group in 2013.
2. Rural Vale of White Horse has a comparatively poor ranking on access to local services.
3. Low cost housing remaining unaffordable for many and there is an increasing dependence on private rented accommodation.
Vale of White Horse evidence summary August 2015 24