A Strategy for NASA's Utilization of Space Assets in the Former Soviet Union by Jim Arthur Rymarcsuk B.S., Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University (1986) M.S., Astronautical Engineering, Stanford University (1987) M.B.A., Management, Golden Gate University (1989) Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 1993 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1993 All rights reserved Signature of Author De artment of AeronaIics and Astronautics April 21, 1993 Certified by CiibProfe-ard f Crawley f kThesis Advisor Certified by Professor Leon Trilling Thesis Advisor Accepted by Professor Richard de Neufville / Chairman, Technology aId Policy Program Accepted by Acc - Pr4ssor Harold Y. Wachman Chairman; Department Graduate Committee MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TFCHNOLOGY [JUN 08 1993 Aero UBRARIES A STRATEGY FOR NASA'S UTILIZATION OF SPACE ASSETS IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION by Jim Arthur Rymarcsuk Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics on April 21, 1993 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Technology and Policy ABSTRACT The end of the Cold War has opened up unprecedented opportunities for the U.S. to benefit from the vast resources of the former Soviet space program. Unfortunately, due to a lack of clear and consistent policies, the U.S. space community and NASA in particular has been slow to exploit these opportunities. In this paper an improved strategy for NASA's pursuit of Russian cooperation is developed that specifies the recommended areas in which to cooperate and the suggested means for implementation. Detailed information on the capabilities and operation of former Soviet space enterprises is also presented as background. The strategy was developed using lessons learned from past and on-going joint aerospace projects with Russian as well as other international partners. Evidence to support the recommendations was gathered through dozens of interviews with space officials both in the U.S. and former Soviet Union. The analysis identifies newly emerging objectives for international space ventures in support of foreign policy and industrial competitiveness goals. NASA's present approach to cooperating with Russia is built upon short-term government-led projects that neglect these broader objectives. Recommendations for making space policy structures at NASA and at the national level more responsive to U.S. long-term strategic interests are presented to overcome this shortcoming. To effectively meet the needs of U.S. and Russian partners alike, it is recommended that NASA make greater use of private companies with their efficient commercial practices as the interface to Russian industrial enterprises. Thesis Advisor: Dr. Edward F. Crawley Title: Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Advisor: Dr. Leon Trilling Title: Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Acknowledgments I would like to thank my advisors Professors Edward Crawley and Leon Trilling for all their ideas and support throughout the writing of this thesis. I am particularly indebted to Professor Crawley for providing me the opportunity and financial support to interview many Russian aerospace managers both in the United States and during my travels in the former Soviet Union. I'd like to say 6ojibruoe cnacx6o to Professor Yuri Zakharov of the Moscow Aviation Institute, whose assistance in Moscow and knowledge of the Russian space industry were indispensable to my research. Unfortunately, there is not room to mention the dozens of other Russian engineers, scientists and mangers who openly and perceptively discussed their individual predicaments with me, but I owe a debt of gratitude to each of them. I would however like to single out one department manager at TsNIIMASh, Dr. Georgi Uspensky, whose insights into and enthusiasm for space cooperation where an inspiration to me. Many in the U.S. government and industry also aided greatly in compiling information and ideas for this work. I am particularly grateful to Jeff Hofgard at NASA Headquarters for his candid discussions and pragmatic suggestions. On the industry side, John Roberto of Pratt & Whitney provided many valuable lessons learned from his work with the Russians. Likewise, discussions with my colleagues at MIT helped substantially in formulating the thoughts presented here. Most notably, my many hours of conversation with Dr. Valery Karlov on topics ranging from political economy to idiomatic expressions, gave me a better understanding of the enigmatic Russian people. Finally, and most importantly, I would like to thank my wife Jennifer for her moral support, suggestions and proofreading, without which I never could have persevered and finished this enormous undertaking. Jim Rymarcsuk April 21, 1993 Note: This material is based upon work supported under a National Science Foundation graduate fellowship. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Table of Contents Chapter One: Introduction ................................................................................. 11 1.1 Benefits and Costs of International Cooperation............. 15 1.2 Present Status of Joint Activities with Russia ............................ 23 Chapter Two: Overview of Post-Soviet Space Activities ......................... 33 2.1 Overall Organization ..................................................................... 34 2.2 Existing Space Systems .......................... 48 2.3 Major Research, Production & Support Institutions ................. 63 2.4 Operations & Management Practices ........................... ............ 93 Chapter Three: Suggested Areas for Russian Cooperation ......................... 103 3.1 Areas of On-Going Joint Activities .................................. 105 3.2 Selection Process for Cooperative Projects .................................... 111 3.3 Recommended Areas for Pursuing Cooperation ..................... 120 Chapter Four: Implementing Cooperative Activities ..................... ........ 137 4.1 Restructuring the Coordination/Selection Process...................... 141 4.2 NASA's Implementation Approach ............................................... 152 4.3 Project Level Implementation Issues ................................ 168 Chapter Five: Recommendations & Conclusions .................................... 177 5.1 Form Executive Level Coordination Council................................ 178 5.2 Restructure NASA's Cooperative Activities .............................. 183 5.3 Improve Effectiveness of Cooperative Projects ......................... 193 Bibliography .......................................................................................................... 199 List of Figures 2.1 - Organization of the Russian Space Program..................... 39 3.1 - Stages of International Cooperation ........................................ 104 3.2 - Map of Present Cooperative Activities with the Russians ............... 107 4.1 - Strategies for Accessing Russian Space Assets ..................... 162 5.1 - Function of the ISACC .................................... 180 5.2 - Recommended Elevation of International Relations at NASA ........... 187 List of Tables 2.1 - Estimated Economic Return from Russian Space Applications .......... 47 2.2 - Launch Vehicles of the Former Soviet Union ..................................... 51 2.3 - Propulsion Systems on Former Soviet Launch Vehicles ................... 55 2.4 - Operational Spacecraft of the Former Soviet Union ......................... 58 2.5 - Major Russian Scientific Spacecraft ............................................ 62 2.6 - Academy of Science Institutes Involved in Space Research ............. 65 2.7 - Leading Non-Propulsion Component Suppliers.................. 88 2.8 - Annual Launch Rates from the Former Soviet Cosmodromes......... 90 3.1 - Criteria to Assess a Project's Fitness for Cooperation ....................... 121 4.1 - Approaches to Implementing Cooperative Space Projects .............. 170 10 Chapter 1 Introduction The Soviet Union, with its enormous military strength and hostile political ideology towards Western democracies, represented the single greatest threat to U.S. national security for over thirty years. In support of its Cold War competition with the U.S., the Soviet Union created the world's largest aerospace industry to produce military hardware and technological achievements to wage its propaganda campaigns. But with the ascension of Mikail Gorbachev in 1985, a thaw in the Cold War began as a dramatic era of restructuring (perestroika) took hold of Russian society. Eventually the forces that Gorbachev put in motion went beyond his control leading ultimately to the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991. With the central government that created it no longer existing, the former Soviet space program was plunged into turmoil. The aerospace industry had enjoyed extensive government support throughout the Cold War years, providing it the resources to become one of the few Soviet industries with products and technologies of international caliber. Yet to the surprise and dismay of Soviet industrial leaders, their initial efforts to earn hard currency by selling space hardware and services abroad met with little success.