1 IPRIS Maghreb Review APRIL 2010

Editors’ note tural dynamics in the Maghreb, re- The Arab gional developments in the Greater Maghreb area, and the role of the five League and Paulo Gorjão countries in the international system. and Tobias Schumacher Each publication will contain three the politics Director, IPRIS, Lisbon to four short analytical articles, one Senior Research Fellow, CIES, more in-depth lead article, a “further reading” list, as well as a monthly of irrelevance ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon chronology of events. This month’s IPRIS Maghreb Review Tobias Schumacher opens with an article by Tobias Schu- Senior Research Fellow, CIES, macher on the recently held Arab ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon Welcome to the first issue of the IP- League summit in Sirte, Libya. This RIS Maghreb Review. In view of the is followed by an analysis of Diogo growing importance of North Africa Noivo on Libya within the new inter- On the 27th and 28th of March 2010, for both Portugal and the European national context, and one article by the 22th Summit of the Union (EU), and inspired by the ab- Hakim Darbouche on EU-Algeria en- was held in the Libyan coastal city of sence of a regular policy brief on the ergy relations and the prospects of Sirte. Colonel Gaddafi, official host of Maghreb, it is our pleasure to intro- an EU-Algeria strategic energy part- the meeting and currently chairman duce to you this latest publication of nership. The lead article, written by of the organisation, had welcomed the Portuguese Institute of Interna- Mahjoob Zweiri, analyses the growing the heads of states of all 22 member tional Relations and Security (IPRIS). influence of Iran in theM aghreb, with states, and consequently the politi- From now on, the IPRIS Maghreb Re- a particular emphasis on Iran-Alge- cal leaders of all Maghreb countries view will be published at the beginning ria and Iran- relations and were invited as well. While Algeria, of each month, featuring exclusively the issue of Shi’ism. This is comple- and Mauritania were repre- the five countries of the Greater Arab mented by a chronology of Maghreb- sented at the highest political level, Maghreb, i.e. Mauritania, Algeria, Mo- related events in April and some book Moroccan King Mohammed VI joined rocco, Tunisia, and Libya. It reaches recommendations. the ranks of seven others – including out to policy-makers, think tanks, the We truly hope you will enjoy this first the then hospitalized Egyptian presi- academic community, the media, the edition and find the IPRIS Maghreb dent and the Saudi king – and gave private sector, and all those that are Review useful. If you have any com- a cold shoulder to an event usually interested in North African affairs. ments or questions, or if are interest- marked by mutual insults, accusa- The IPRIS Maghreb Review provides ed in writing for the IPRIS Maghreb tions, and a blatant display of Arab its readers with first-class, up-to- Review, please contact the editors or disunity. date analysis on issues pertaining to consult the IPRIS website at www.ip- While the summit was a welcome political, economic, social, and cul- ris.org. opportunity for Mauritania’s new IPRIS Maghreb Review | 2

President, Mohamed Abdel Aziz, to a few days before the conference, Libya’s generate a sense of normality and, the summit itself was dominated following the ousting of Maurita- by very strong anti-Israel rhetoric, enfant terrible: nia’s first democratically elected embodied, for instance, in Algerian President in August 2008, to present President Bouteflika’s plea for “firm New international himself as his country’s legitimate positions to confront Israel’s arro- leader, Tunisia’s Ben Ali seized the gance and colonization”. At the be- opportunity to lobby for the re-acti- ginning of March, the Arab League context vation of the Arab Peace and Secu- had called for indirect talks between rity Council and for two Arab league Israel and the Palestinians mediated - same old conferences to be held later this year by the U.S., provided the Israeli gov- in Tunis. Algerian President Boutef- ernment would put an end to current attitude lika also indulged in some rhetoric settlement activities. At the summit on the need to reform the League’s however – and following the Israeli Diogo Noivo structures. Yet, and more important- government’s announcement that it Researcher, IPRIS, Lisbon ly, he used the summit as a platform would pursue settlement construc- to discuss with fellow Arab leaders tion in the West Bank and Ramat Sh- the latest round of negotiations over lomo – Libya opposed the resump- In January, Libyan leader Muammar the future status of the Western Sa- tion of peace talks and managed to Gaddafi urged jihad against Switzer- hara. Conversely, it was precisely bring both more radical-minded and land. According to Gaddafi, this deci- this issue and the prospect of hav- moderate regimes in line with its po- sion was grounded on the result of a ing to meet with Bouteflika that led sition. As a consequence, the sum- referendum in which the Swiss voted Mohammed VI to ignore the gather- mit conclusions omit any reference against the construction of minarets ing and to dispatch only his younger to the issue, and instead foresee the in the country’s mosques. In Gad- brother, Prince Moulay Rachid. preparation of a joint Arab action dafi’s own words, “let us wage jihad The summit itself can be sum- plan on key issues, to be discussed against Switzerland, Zionism and marised rather briefly, as it turned at an extraordinary summit in Octo- foreign aggression” adding that “any out to be just another insubstantial ber. Muslim in any part of the world who meeting of a highly divided circle In light of the fact that this document works with Switzerland is an apos- of elderly dictators, who – strictly is destined to be drafted by a small tate, is against Muhammad, God and speaking – differ from one another group of six Arab leaders, most of the Koran”. This rift spilled over into only by the extent to which their whom are not necessarily known the sphere of the European Union, rhetoric and action are more or less for their conciliatory views, the tone with Libya no longer issuing visas radical and nationalistic. In what has and substance of such a document for citizens from the Schengen area, become somewhat of a fashion in are likely to disappoint those hop- a practice that was deplored by the recent years, Colonel Gaddafi began ing for an Arab League that would – European Commission and that only by mocking his counterparts and of- precisely at a moment when it would ended in March. fending first Iraqi foreign minister be most needed – still reach out to However, a look into past events Hoshyar Zebari by pledging support Israel’s right-wing government and seems to indicate that Libya’s quarrel to Iraqi ex-Baathists, then moved encourage it to engage at least in- with Switzerland has more profound on to Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Al Thani directly in peace talks. Against the and even personal reasons. This call by suggesting he was overweight. backdrop of the organisation’s poor to arms came after Switzerland al- While these gaffes provide an indi- political record and its renewed legedly blacklisted close to 200 high- cation of the underlying atmosphere, failure to present itself as a united, ranking Libyans, denying them entry the summit did not produce any con- viable and forward-looking mecha- permits – a list that was said to in- crete results, neither with respect nism, this will be interpreted by clude Gaddafi himself, and his family. to the League’s future relations with many in the U.S., in Europe and the Moreover, Hannibal Gaddafi and Aline Iran, nor its transformation into a Middle East, but also in Israel, as yet Skaf, respectively the Libyan leader’s more integrated union. more proof that the Arab Peace Plan son and wife, were arrested in Geneva Concerning the unresolved Israeli- adopted by the Arab League in 2002, in July 2008, both accused of assault- Palestinian conflict, the gathering was an exceptional and probably ing two employees of a Swiss hotel, al- proved to be rather meaningless. unique achievement of an organisa- though charges were dropped shortly Preceded by Mauritania’s rather tion that must today justify why it is after. These past episodes were quick surprising decision to cut all dip- still considered by some to be an im- to elicit retaliation: Libya suspended lomatic relations with Israel just portant political player. the supply of oil, moved billions of IPRIS Maghreb Review | 3

dollars from Swiss banks, recalled its it happened before Ramadan as well EU-Algerian diplomats and, in the same month in as before Gaddafi’s first speech at which Gaddafi’s wife and son were de- the United Nations in years. Fur- relations tained in Geneva, Tripoli issued arrest thermore, Al-Megrahi’s release warrants against two Swiss business- prevented any further investigation need men, Rachid Hamdani and Max Goeldi. into undisclosed details regarding Hamdani was allowed to leave Libya in the terrorist attack in Scotland. The January 2010 and Max Goeldi is serv- United Kingdom and the U.S. were “energizing” ing a four-month sentence in prison the target of harsh criticism, both for violating immigration rules, after domestic and foreign. In spite of re- Hakim Darbouche a tense stand-off outside the Swiss quests made to Libyan authorities Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for embassy in Libya where Goeldi was by the U.S. and others to not give Energy Studies given sanctuary. All of these events a hero’s welcome to Al-Megrahi – took place in spite of Swiss President requests that were agreed upon by Hans-Rudolf Merz’s visit to Tripoli in Libya – he was greeted as a national Algeria’s relationship with the Eu- August 2009 with the purpose of apol- symbol at his arrival in Tripoli. Nine ropean Community (EC) and its suc- ogizing for the arrest of Gaddafi’s son months later, Al-Megrahi’s health cessor the European Union (EU) has and wife. Italian Prime Minister Silvio has “greatly improved”. This episode traditionally been of a tumultuous Berlusconi did the same at the recent constitutes an indisputable victory nature. Decision-makers in Algiers Arab League Summit, as did Miguel of Gaddafi’s regime. and Brussels have struggled to find Ángel Moratinos, Spain’s Minister of But there are other examples of a an optimal policy and institutional Foreign Affairs, on a different occa- new western attitude towards Libya. configuration that would both reflect sion. State Department spokesman Philip and harness the dyad’s interests and The rift with Switzerland appears to J. Crowley, who said Gaddafi’s com- potential. For almost all the wrong demonstrate that Colonel Gaddafi’s ments about the Swiss referendum reasons, EU-Algerian relations have personal interests and resentment were “lots of words, not necessarily been dubbed sui generis. are in fact Libya’s national causes. a lot of sense”, had to publicly re- Besides penalizing bilateral ties be- There seems to be a complete over- tract himself last March, an apology tween the EU and Algeria, these re- lap between the state and the man followed by U.S. Assistant Secretary peated hiccups have also passively that has been ruling it for the last of State for Near Eastern Affairs militated against the broader projects 40 years. Given ’s Jeffrey D. Feltman’s visit to Tripoli of (sub-)regional integration in the usual political behavior, there would in order to reiterate the aforemen- Maghreb and Mediterranean writ not be anything surprising were it not tioned sentiment of contriteness. large. However, amid these failures, for the new international context. In spite of western tolerance, apolo- energy has conspicuously been the During the past few years, there has gies, explicit desires of closer ties only area where EU-Algerian rela- been an effort to reintegrate Libya and help, Gaddafi does not seem tions have known continued stabil- in the international community. to have changed his usual behavior ity and interdependence. Although The most obvious attempt to erase or his ideas – for example, Colonel driven almost exclusively by mar- Libya’s pariah status and turn a new Gaddafi remarked last January that ket forces, the net complementarity page in diplomatic relations was the the concept of civil society has no characterizing EU-Algerian relations release of Abdelbaset Al-Megrahi, place in Libya. in the energy sector has encouraged the only man convicted for the Lock- Reintegrating Libya is of the utmost the development of a relevant bilat- erbie terrorist attack of 1988’ in importance, not only from a strictly eral cooperation of sorts. Yet, relative which 270 people died after a Pan economic and even energy security to its importance, energy remains one Am flight traveling from London to perspective, but also with regard to of the most under-institutionalized New York exploded over Scotland. regional stability and international policy areas in EU-Algeria relations. Al-Megrahi, who was serving life security. However, we must ask our- Upon its inauguration in 1995, the imprisonment in Scotland, was freed selves about the price we are willing Euro-Mediterranean Partnership met on 20 August 2009, with the tacit to pay to give Gaddafi a stage in in- with unprecedented enthusiasm in Al- complacency of the government in ternational politics. Hence, it should geria. Negotiations for the conclusion London and of the U.S. Administra- be debated whether this is the right of an association agreement were tion. The release was founded on approach - so far the ‘new West’ has concluded in 2002, and since then humane grounds, due to the fact not generated a ‘new Gaddafi’. Car- EU-Algerian relations have markedly that Al-Megrahi has cancer and was rots do not seem to work without improved at the political level, mainly given three months left to live, and sticks. as a result of closer security coopera- IPRIS Maghreb Review | 4

tion. But the economic record outside the European market. What’s more, America, the Middle East and Africa the hydrocarbon sector remains sub- in volume terms, natural gas is Al- reinforced at the expense of the EU. dued. geria’s single most important export A specific framework that capital- By 2003, Algeria’s enthusiasm for commodity, representing over 40% izes on the healthy energy relation- EU-Mediterranean policies had sub- of hydrocarbon exports which in turn ship would offer the most positive tly given way to a more reserved pos- account for 97% of Algeria’s total ex- outlook for EU-Algerian relations. ture. This attitudinal shift was con- port revenues, 60% of government firmed by the lukewarm reception fiscal receipts and 40% of its GDP. reserved by Algerian foreign policy- Though solid enough, energy inter- makers to the European Neighbour- dependence between the EU and Al- hood Policy (ENP) – a Eurocentric geria has not been immune to shift- framework of cooperation seen as ing market dynamics and changing adding little value to Algeria’s stra- perceptions of vulnerability on both tegic conception of its relationship sides. The weak institutionalization with the EU. of this interdependent energy rela- The EU’s latest policy initiative in the tionship has meant that, in the face Mediterranean, launched in 2008, of emerging challenges, concerns has fared no better than the ENP about security of supply on the one as far as Algeria’s reaction is con- hand and about security of demand cerned. If anything, the Union for the on the other are increasingly testing Mediterranean (UfM) has impressed the sustainability of the status quo. Algerians much less than its pred- The first attempt at the formaliza- ecessor because it scores poorly on tion of EU-Algeria energy relations the strategic dimensions they have took place in 2006 when Algerian been looking for since the ENP. The policymakers proposed to their Eu- fact that the UfM is a progeny of ropean counterparts the conclusion French diplomacy also meant that it of a “strategic energy partnership” stood little chance of winning Alge- (SEP). However, the ensuing nego- rian support, let alone significantly tiations have been agonisingly pro- changing the course of EU-Algerian tracted, reportedly as a result of the ties, especially considering that re- EU’s instinctive emphasis on market lations between the French and Al- regulatory norms being accorded a gerian establishments have been at central role in a future SEP. Algeria a low since 2005. perceives the EU approach as pro- Geographical proximity to Europe saically narrow and obsessed with has naturally led to the develop- rules and regulations, whereas its ment of an interdependent energy expectation is of a cooperation mod- relationship between Algeria and el that is explicitly more strategic. European consumers. Today, Algeria Algeria’s relevant policy pronounce- is the EU’s third largest supplier of ments indicate that it wants its SEP natural gas after Russia and Nor- with the EU to take account not just way, with annual exports of over 50 of existing trends and patterns in billion cubic meters (Bcm). The de- their energy relationship, but also pendence of some member states its anticipated evolution. Beyond oil such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and and gas, Algeria is interested in de- France on Algerian gas supplies is veloping new, “green” technologies even more important. With the com- to harness its non-hydrocarbon en- ing on stream by 2015 of new LNG ergy potential and be an active part and pipeline export capacity, Sonat- in the incipient climate change pol- rach will have the possibility to be- icy agenda. come Europe’s second largest sup- Failure to develop a partnership be- plier with over 80 Bcm of gas sales tween the EU and Algeria that re- per year. flects the interests of both parties Conversely, over 80% of Algeria’s will see Algeria’s evolving relations gas exports are today absorbed by with emerging poles in Asia, Latin IPRIS Maghreb Review | 5

Iran and North Africa: Between honeymoon and confrontation

Mahjoob Zweiri Assistant Professor, History Programme, Qatar University

Iran’s relations with the three countries of the inner model of sorts, which could be exported to other alleg- Maghreb, i.e. Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, go back only edly suppressed nations. It is these elements that have to the previous century, as it was not until the reign of been shaping Iran’s foreign policy in general and hence the Pahlavis that Iran started to gradually develop its re- vis-à-vis North Africa until today. How did these factors lations with them. In spite of these first efforts however, affect and shape the development of bilateral relations Iran, even during the Pahlavi era, was more focused on on the ground? deepening and consolidating bilateral relations with the With the mediation of then-Algerian President Houari United States, as well as with its neighboring countries, Boumedienne, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saddam Hussein, then Vice-President of Iraq, in 1975 Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, all of which in the signed the famous Algiers Agreement, which ended the early 1980’s formed the Gulf border dispute between Tehran Cooperation Council (GCC). and Baghdad. Algeria, at the It was only after the Islamic It was only after the time one of the self-proclaimed Revolution in 1979, with the leaders of the movement of new regime’s markedly differ- Islamic Revolution non-aligned countries, contin- ent foreign policy approach, ued to play a diplomatic role that bilateral relations with in 1979, with the new with regard to Iran after the Is- each of the three Maghreb regime’s markedly lamic Revolution by mediating countries intensified con- between the United States and siderably. The new approach different foreign policy Iran in the context of the hos- adopted by the clergy relied, tage crisis of the early 1980’s and still relies, on three facts: approach, that bilateral and succeeded in convincing first, geography was no longer Iran to release all American seen as a defining factor un- relations with each of the hostages shortly after Ronald derpinning the establishment Reagan took office. After diplo- of relations with other coun- three Maghreb countries matic relations between Tehran tries and regions; in part, this intensified considerably. and Washington were cut, it was explains the importance the precisely Algeria that henceforth regime is attributing to Africa represented Iranian interests in and Latin America. Second, after the downfall of the Washington. The reason why the mullahs chose Algiers Shah, the clergy began to no longer regard the West was not only due to the country’s positive reputation in as a priority for the Islamic Republic due to Western the Third World, but also because Iran’s relations with countries’ long history of colonizing and/or dominating most countries in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf Africa, Asia and Latin America. Third, the new Iranian in the 1980’s were in dire straits due to their support of regime after 1979 undertook great efforts to advertise Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980-1988. the Iranian revolution as being based on principles Relations between Iran and Algeria fell apart, though, such as freedom and independence and, thus, as a role in the early 1990’s due to Iran’s support of the Islamic IPRIS Maghreb Review | 6

Salvation Front (FIS), which even led to a temporary cut- tions are having a much stronger effect, as oil revenues ting of diplomatic ties. It was only in September 2000 amount to approximately 80% of its annual budget. that both countries decided to restore full diplomatic With regard to nuclear energy, it is noteworthy that the relations. Undoubtedly, this decision was a direct con- governments of all three inner Maghreb countries are sequence of the coming-into-power of Mohammed less concerned with the Iranian nuclear energy pro- Khatami in 1997 and of just two gramme than other Arab regimes and seem to support years later and their efforts to change the international Iran’s right to a nuclear programme, provided it is civil- images of Iran and Algeria, respectively. These efforts, ian and non-military. This view is substantiated, for ex- though not coordinated, were successful to the extent ample, by a statement of Algerian President Bouteflika, that both leaders managed to improve relations not only who, in April 2010, announced that Algeria supports with one another, but Iran’s right to “peaceful also with numerous nuclear technology”, pre- European countries. Today, more than thirty years ceded by a similar state- Whereas in the case of ment by Tunisian Presi- Algeria these improve- after the Iranian revolution and dent Ben Ali in 2007. In ments proved to be sus- fourteen years after the full turn, Iran has offered to tainable, in the case of provide Algeria with nu- Iran they lasted only un- restoration of diplomatic ties clear expertise, but was til 2005. unsuccessful in this re- Today, more than thirty between Tehran and Algiers, gard, as Algiers opted for years after the Iranian bilateral civilian nuclear revolution and fourteen energy is one of the key issues agreements with Rus- years after the full res- sia and the U.S. instead. toration of diplomatic in Iran’s relations with Algeria. Notwithstanding this re- ties between Tehran The Iranian regime is trying to jection, Algeria, as well and Algiers, energy is as the governments of one of the key issues increase its cooperation with Morocco and Tunisia, has in Iran’s relations with at least officially uttered Algeria. The Iranian Algeria to coordinate price skepticism with regard to regime is trying to in- potential sanctions and crease its cooperation policies and make hydrocarbon rather seems to favour a with Algeria – one of the diplomatic solution to the world’s most important products of the two countries current nuclear crisis. gas and oil producers more compatible with one The election of Mahmoud – to coordinate price Ahmadinejad in 2005 as policies and make hy- another. In this vein, Iran has President of the Islamic drocarbon products of Republic turned out to be the two countries more also repeatedly worked against somewhat of a turning compatible with one point in particular with another. In this vein, OPEC by trying to prevent respect to Iran’s relations Iran has also repeatedly with Morocco. While Iran- worked against OPEC an upstream increase in Algeria relations are blos- by trying to prevent an production. soming, culminating in a upstream increase in meeting of the Algerian- production, and, thus, a Iranian committee in 2008 fall of global oil prices, as the latter would have nega- in Tehran and in the joint elaboration of a draft action tive repercussions for Iran’s annual budget. Although plan for cooperation in 19 areas of the economic sec- Iran was temporarily able to count on Algerian support tor, including housing, urbanization, water resources, in this matter, it did not succeed in convincing other industry, and transportation, and while Iran-Tunisia re- oil-producers, most of all Saudi Arabia, and simply had lations in the realm of economic, agricultural, scientific to stand by and watch as prices for (Iranian) oil plunged and cultural cooperation have expanded consistently in repeatedly. For Algeria, these temporary losses are the last ten years, Morocco severed its diplomatic ties less problematic, as natural gas, representing 40% of with Iran in March 2009. In the wake of the 2005 presi- its hydrocarbon exports, is its most important export dential election in Iran, the Moroccan regime gradually commodity. In Iran’s case, however, oil price fluctua- joined the ranks of those who regard the development IPRIS Maghreb Review | 7

of Iranian foreign policy increasingly critically and who of the Idrisids dynasty (788-971) and, thus, as a monar- consider the performance of Ahmadinejad as a remind- chy where the monarch has historical links to the proph- er of the radical Iranian discourse of the 1980’s – a dis- et Mohammed. It is through this prism that Morocco is course that was then perceived by many in the Middle being regarded by the Iranian clergy as a country where East and North Africa as confrontational and threaten- Shia political thought is existent and needs to be fos- ing. This approach follows a history of tense relations tered. This theological aspect needs to be kept in mind marked by Iranian-Moroccan wrangling over Morocco’s by those that argue that Iran is simply trying to export provision of asylum to the Shah and Rabat’s support of its revolution. In fact, the debate over the Shia dimen- Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war. sion in Iran-Morocco relations is not new and Morocco Iran’s questionable role in Iraq and its sectarian poli- for a very long time has not done anything to counter or cies, designed to support oppose it. Whether the Moroc- Shia communities both in can decision to cut diplomatic Iraq and beyond, have been Iran has offered to ties with Iran on the grounds considered by Rabat and of Iranian meddling in do- many other capitals in the provide Algeria with mestic affairs is justified is, Middle East as a deliberate however, questionable, as the attempt to spread Shiism nuclear expertise, but feared Shia political move- and, thus, as an attempt to was unsuccessful in this ment in Morocco is, in fact, interfere in the domestic af- difficult to detect. fairs of other Muslim coun- regard, as Algiers opted for Moroccan worries about Iran tries. The Moroccan regime seem to follow the logic of what has been increasingly sus- bilateral civilian nuclear some consider the emergence picious of Iranian efforts to of a New Middle East Cold War, support and spread Shiism agreements with Russia in which Iran is gradually po- beyond Iran’s borders and sitioning itself as an emerging hence its efforts to chal- and the U.S. instead. and rather assertive pole. In lenge Morocco’s rather Notwithstanding this view of this, it is important to moderate religious iden- note the rising concerns in re- tity and alter its religious rejection, Algeria, as well cent years among the major- fundamentals. Eventually, ity of moderate Arab regimes the Moroccan government as the governments of over the relationship between harnessed the statement Iran and Hezbollah. The pub- of a member of the Iranian Morocco and Tunisia, has lic sympathy the July war of Expediency Council, accord- 2006 between Hezbollah and ing to which Bahrain was at least officially uttered Israel generated for Hezbol- said to have been Iran’s 14th skepticism with regard to lah all across the Middle East province, as a pretext for undoubtedly is an additional escalation. Ali Akbar Nateq potential sanctions and factor that is being taken into Nuri’s statement provided account by Moroccan authori- Moroccan authorities with rather seems to favor a ties. This also explains the re- an opportunity to point to a cent decision taken by the Mo- concrete example of Iran’s diplomatic solution to the roccan government to close alleged imposition of Shi- the Iran-funded Al-Alam TV ite Muslim ideology in the current nuclear crisis. station in Morocco and to ban Arab world and in so doing a Lebanese correspondent Rabat was successful at least to the extent that its con- working for Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV channel in Mo- cerns were taken up by Bahrain, the Arab League, and rocco on the grounds of allegedly unbalanced coverage. other Arab governments of Sunni-dominated countries. That these events were not isolated incidents becomes In contrast to them, however, Morocco did not let go of obvious when it is taken into account that Morocco op- the issue, and only a few days after the Moroccan For- poses Iran also in the context of the row the latter has eign Ministry had called in the Iranian ambassador, it with the United Arab Emirates over the Tunbs and Abu recalled its chargé d’affaires from Iran and eventually Musa islands, which Morocco considers as being under cut relations. Iranian occupation. In general, Morocco has always been perceived by the Overall, the deterioration of Iran-Morocco relations, Iranian leadership against the backdrop of the legacies and to some extent this applies to the expansion of IPRIS Maghreb Review | 8

Iran-Algeria and Iran-Tunisia relations, shows the con- favor the Moroccan approach, as it is hoped that the siderable extent to which perceptions matter and how latter will contribute to a growing isolation of Tehran. Iran’s domestic politics generate (un)desired spillovers Washington is already worried of Iran’s proactive role in into Iran’s foreign relations, be it in North Africa and parts of Latin America, and by exerting gentle pressure the Middle East or in Europe and the U.S. This tendency on North African governments – all of which it needs has considerably increased in the last five years since in the context of the fight against international terror- Ahmadinejad has come to power, and it is against this ism – to distance themselves from Iran, it continues to background that the issue of Iran’s alleged intentions of work towards maintaining the negative image of Iran in exporting its Islamic revolution has become a fashion- the world. able construct that is repeatedly being refreshed and Against this backdrop, and in the light of ongoing de- kept alive by a variety of actors. Interestingly, recourse bates over Iran’s nuclear program and potentially an- to such a construct occurs when relations between Iran other round of sanctions to be imposed on Iran, what and Arab and North African states are perceived to be in seems most likely at this moment in time is that the a state of crisis. recent dynamics in the relations between the countries In view of the fact that Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia of the inner Maghreb and Iran are unlikely to change. nowadays enjoy rather close relations with both France Algeria and Tunisia will carefully weigh each step they and the U.S. – two of the most important actors lead- take towards even closer cooperation with Iran. At the ing current international efforts to impose sanctions on same time, Morocco will certainly not endanger its Iran – the question remains how they regard the latest broader foreign policy interests in the Western Sahara dynamics in Iran-North Africa relations. Obviously, given and with regard to closer cooperation with the EU by the various statements coming out of the various power resuming diplomatic relations with an increasingly iso- centers in Washington and Paris, the governments of lated regime whose true foreign policy objectives are both countries seem to be increasingly puzzled by Iran’s seen by many in Rabat, as well as in other parts of the appeasement efforts vis-à-vis Algiers and Tunis and world, as rather dubious. IPRIS Maghreb Review | 9

Timeline of Events

Algeria 21 April 2010 (Oran): 11 April 2010 (Houn): A group of international energy officials gath- Muammar Gaddafi received a delegation from 1 April 2010 (Algiers): ered for the 16th International Conference and the Afro-Latin American Foundation Support- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki Exhibition on Liquified Natural Gas (LNG 16) ers of Gaddafi. In a statement read during the met President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Mottaki and agreed to index the price of gas to that of visit, the members of the delegation decided also met with the Minister for African and petrol. The LNG 16 decision follows an agree- to name Gaddafi as honorary chairman for the Maghreb Affairs Abdul Kader Msahel. Algeri- ment reached at the separate Gas Exporting Foundation and expressed their commitment an diplomatic sources have said that the rela- Countries Forum (GECF). GECF member na- to set up the South Atlantic Front in paral- tion between Tehran and Algiers has reached tions approved a long-term plan to achieve lel to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization a level of unprecedented understanding. petrol and gas price parity, Energy Minister (NATO). Chakib Khelil said. 5 April 2010 (Algiers): 11 April 2010 (Tripoli): The leader of the Algerian National Reform Seychelles President James Michel met with Movement, Sheikh Abdullah Jaballah, stated that Muammar Gaddafi to further enhance bilateral the attempts for the reunification of that same relations between the two countries. In Febru- party have reached a dead end. As a result some ary, the Libyan government cancelled 50% of members will create a new political party. the Seychelles’ debt and rescheduled the re- mainder on favorable terms. 7 April 2010 (Algiers): The Sahel-Sahara intelligence chiefs met for 12 April 2010 (Moscow): an Algiers summit plan to offer several security Russian Gazprom announced it agreed terms recommendations to their military peers. Pro- Libya with Italy’s ENI on joining the Elephant oilfield posals include a joint Air Force Command for in Libya in an asset-swap deal. the seven Sahel-Sahara states that would use 1 April 2010 (Abuja): reconnaissance and combat aircraft to mount Liberia’s president Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf bro- 13 April 2010 (Tripoli): military operations against terrorists along the kered talks between Nigeria and Libya to try Brazilian Eembraermbraer delivered two new E em-m- Algeria, Mali, Mauritania and Niger borders. In- to ease tension between the two countries af- braer 170 jets to the new Libyan aviation telligence officials reportedly concluded that a ter Libya’s leader suggested Nigeria be bro- service provider Petro Air under a deal that joint program was necessary, since Niger, Mali ken up along ethnic lines. also includes purchase rights for two Em- and Mauritania lack adequate military equip- braer 190 aircrafts. With a value of US$66.8 ment to conduct this type of counter-terrorism 7 April 2010 (Tripoli): million at list price, based on 2010 economic action. About 160 Libyan-Turkish investment projects conditions, it could come to US$146.8 million, worth about US$2.5 billion are currently be- if all purchase rights are confirmed. 11-12 April 2010 (Algiers): ing executed in Libya, according to the Libyan Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Naji Otri General Office for the transfer of ownership 15 April 2010 (Tripoli): visited Algeria upon an invitation from Prime of companies (privatization) and investment. The Libyan general people’s committee for Minister in order to participate This announcement was made during the Foreign Relations and International Coopera- in the Syrian-Algerian Higher Committee. Council of the Libyan-Turkish businessmen tion has criticised the Nuclear Security Summit who, among other aspects, decided that na- organised by U.S. President Barack Obama in 13-15 April 2010 (Algiers): tionals of the two countries will no longer Washington. It said it would have been better Vietnam’s President Nguyen Minh Triet visited need visas. if it had been held within the framework of the Algeria. United Nations and had resulted in a global 9 April 2010 (Sirte): declaration stressing the commitment of the 16 April 2010 (Algiers): Muammar Gaddafi received a special envoy international community to voluntarily abandon A draft agreement was signed by the Culture from the chairman of Niger’s Supreme Coun- nuclear armaments. Ministry and the Embassy of China for the cil for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD), building and funding of an opera house in Al- Djibou Salou. The envoy conveyed to Gaddafi a 15 April 2010 (Tripoli): giers. message from the CSRD chairman. Portuguese bank Banco Espirito Santo IPRIS Maghreb Review | 10

bought a 40% stake in Libya’s Aman Bank service, communications, environment and Af- El Fassi attended Senegal’s 50th independence for €39.8 million. BES will have manage- rican affairs departments. anniversary and delivered a message from ment control. King Mohamed VI to Senegalese President Ab- 5 April 2010 (Nouakchott): doulaye Wade. 17 April 2010 (Tripoli): Mauritania and Turkey signed a cooperation The Libyan committee for Human Rights has agreement. Mauritanian Interior Minister Ould 6 April 2010 (Rabat): strongly condemned the eviction of Palestinian Mohamed Boilil and his Turkish counterpart UAE Ambassador to Morocco Saeed Hamid inhabitants from the West Bank. Besir Atalay agreed to boost reciprocal visits al-Jari al-Ketbi met Moulay Tayeb Cherka- and work together to fight the threat of orga- oui, the Interior Minister. They discussed 19 April 2010 (Taiwan): nized crime and terrorism. bilateral cooperation between UAE and Mo- Officials from the Libyan Economic Develop- rocco. ment Board (EDB) visited Taiwan and briefed 9 April 2010 (Nouakchott): dozens of local businessmen on potential trade Mauritania and Azerbaijan initiated a Memo- 10 April 2010 (Conakry): and investment opportunities in Libya, which randum of Understanding on cultural coopera- The Secretary of State at the Foreign Minis- has maintained warm relations with Taiwan in tion. The document was signed by Azeri Minis- try, , headed a delegation recent years. ter of Culture and Tourism Abulfaz Garayev and to Guinea, where he met the country’s Prime Mauritanian Foreign Minister Naha Mint Hamdi Minister Jean Marie Doré. The head of the 25 April 2010 (Tripoli): Ould Mouknass. Guinean government reaffirmed Conakry’s For the first time, a delegation of close to 40 historical position on the Sahara, commend- Israeli Arab lawmakers visited Libya and met 13 April 2010 (Teheran): ing Morocco’s wisdom in looking for a political with Muammar Gaddafi. The role played by Is- President , Foreign solution to this issue through the autonomy raeli Arabs as part of the Arab world was the Minister Naha Mint Mouknass and Finance initiative. The Moroccan delegation partici- central topic of discussion. Minister Sid’Ahmed Ould Raiss visited Iran. pates in the 12th International Contact Group on Guinea. 25 April 2010 (Sirte): 20 April 2010 (Nouakchott): Muammar Gaddafi received Guinea-Bissau’s A message from Syrian President Bashar al- 10 April 2010 (New York): interim army chief, António Indjai. During the Assad was handed by Deputy Foreign Minister The United Nations Secretary-General, Ban meeting, Indjai delivered a message from Pres- Fayssal al-Mikdad to his counterpart, Mohamed Ki-moon, recommended to the Security Coun- ident Malam Bacai Sanhá. Indjai told Gaddafi Ould Abdel Aziz. The President of Mauritania cil that the mandate for the UN mission in the that the political situation in Guinea-Bissau was reiterated his country’s aspiration to deepen Sahara (MINURSO) be extended for a further now under control after the coup on 1 April. relations with Syria. period of one year until 30 April 2011.

26 April 2010 (Tripoli): 23 April 2010 (Nouakchott): 12 April 2010 (Washington): Muammar Gaddafi complained that the Obama After a meeting of the joint Mauritania-Syria Indian Prime Minister Manomohan Singh held administration had not invited him to a nuclear cooperation commission, seven agreements a bilateral meeting with the Moroccan Prime security summit earlier this month in Washing- were signed by Foreign Minister Naha Mint Minister Abbas El Fassi on the sidelines of ton and said the snub would hurt efforts to rid Mouknass and Syrian Deputy Foreign Minis- the Nuclear Security Summit. They agreed the world of nuclear weapons. ter Fay-al El Moqdad, covering the areas of to increase economic cooperation, and Prime culture, information, trade, technical and sci- Minister Abbas El Fassi pledged support for entific exchanges, housing, urbanization and India’s candidature to the UN Security Coun- regional development. cil.

13 April 2010 (Washington): Prime Minister Abbas El Fassi said that King Mohammed VI highly appreciates the strong and distinguished initiatives of President Ba- rack Obama to promote peace and stability at Mauritania the regional and international levels. 14-16 April 2010 (Madrid): 1 April 2010 (Nouakchott): The Morocco-Spain joint military committee President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz conducted Morocco addressed pressing issues such as illegal im- his first cabinet reshuffle since his election last migration and organized crime. Spain support- July. New ministers were named to lead the 5 April 2010 (Dakar): ed Morocco’s role in NATO’s Active Endeavor justice, finance, energy, employment, public A delegation headed by Prime Minister Abbas mission. IPRIS Maghreb Review | 11

17 April 2010 (Algiers): Arabia’s Deputy-Interior Minister. Following the secretary-general and the European Com- Prime Minister Abbas El Fassi met a delega- meeting, Prince Al-Saoud stressed the strong missioner for Enlargement and European tion from the Chinese Communist Party. Chen ties binding the two countries and commended Neighborhood Policy in their capacity as ob- Jianguo, head of the Chinese delegation and the progress, security and stability prevailing in servers. member of the Central Committee of the CPC Tunisia. said that cooperation not only benefits the two 17 April 2010 (Tunis): peoples but also helps to promote the devel- 7 April 2010 (Tunis): The Prime Minister re- opment of Chinese-African and Chinese-Arab Foreign Minister Kamel Morjane met with Didier ceived a delegation of African ministers who relations. Reynders, Belgian Deputy Prime Minister and took part in the meeting of the Tunisian-African Minister of Finance and Institutional Reforms. partnership in the sector of services. 17 April 2010 (Gammarth): During the meeting, both men discussed ways At the end of the 5+5 meeting held in Tunisia, to boost a sustainable and mutually beneficial 21 April 2010 (Tunis): Moroccan Foreign Minister Taib Fassi Fihri said Tunisian-Belgian partnership. The talks also The President reaffirmed that the Arab Maghreb Union could not, in its reviewed the current negotiations to strength- the importance Tunisia attaches to the diversi- current state, play an important and effective en Tunisia-EU relations and highlighted that fication and the strengthening of cooperation role within the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) was an with Mediterranean countries, especially those Fihri said that Algeria has not changed its posi- important vector for building a strong and bal- of the Western Mediterranean region. tion with regard to opening borders with Moroc- anced partnership between countries of the co and normalizing bilateral relations, making two Mediterranean coasts through concrete 26-28 April 2010 (Washington): this objective conditional upon the settlement of projects. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Kamel Mor- the Moroccan Sahara issue. jane, met with General James Jones, the U.S. 12-13 April 2010 (Tunis): National Security Advisor. The meeting focused 20 April 2010 (UAE): Vietnam’s President Nguyen Minh Triet on ways to strengthen relations between Tuni- Morocco’s ambassador to the UAE, Abdelkader stressed the importance of developing coop- sia and the U.S. particularly in the sectors of Zaoui, said that trade between Morocco and the eration in the trade and investment sectors, military, scientific and technological coopera- UAE increased from US$152 million in 2006 as well as in oil prospecting, agriculture, tour- tion. Kamel Morjane also conferred with Am- to over US$237 million in 2009. This increase ism and phosphate production. Tunisian Prime bassador Jeffrey D. Feltman, Assistant Secre- is ascribed to the implementation of the 2001 Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi said that the tary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, and with Morocco-UAE Free Trade Agreement, which talks had provided the opportunity to review the the U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. resulted in a 45.6% rise in Moroccan exports to different aspects of Tunisian-Vietnamese coop- the UAE, Zaoui noted. eration; adding that the signing of several bilat- eral agreements, especially on the avoidance of 30 April 2010 (Casablanca): double taxation, will contribute to boosting co- At the closing ceremony of the first AfricanD e- operation between the two countries. velopment International Forum, Foreign minis- ter Taib Fassi Fihri stressed that King Moham- 13 April 2010 (Tunis): med VI gave a strong impetus to South-South Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi received relations, calling on African countries to fur- Jean Lemierre, the Advisor to the Chairman of ther strengthen cooperation bonds. the BNP Paribas Group.

14 April 2010 (Tunis): South African Deputy President, Kgalema Mot- lanthe met Prime Minister Mohamed Ghan- nouchi. A meeting of the Tunisia-South Africa Joint Committee was also held.

16-17 April 2010 (Gammarth): The 8th meeting of the 5+5 Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue closed in Gammarth. Tunisian For- eign Affairs Minister Kamel Morjane and his Tunisia Spanish counterpart Miguel Angel Moratinos co-chaired this session, with attendance from 5 April 2010 (Tunis): the foreign ministers of the Western Medi- President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali met with terranean countries. The meeting was also Prince Ahmed Ibn Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Saudi attended by the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) IPRIS Maghreb Review | 12

Reading List

Rabah Aissaoui, Immigration and National Identity: North African Political Movements in Colonial and Postcolonial France (I.B. Tauris, 2009).

Gawdat Bahgat, “The Geopolitics of Energy: Europe and North Africa” (The Journal of North African Studies, Vol. 15, No. 1, March 2010): 39-49.

Aron Buzogány and Oriol Costa, “Greening the Neighbourhood? The Environmental Dimension of the ENP in Morocco and Ukraine” (European Foreign Affairs Review, Vol. 14, No. 4, 2009): 525-545.

Carl Dawson, EU integration with North Africa. Trade Negotiations and Democracy Deficits in Morocco (I.B. Tauris, 2009).

Diogo Noivo, “Presidency of the European Union: Maghreb as an opportunity for Spain” (IPRIS Viewpoints, No. 13, March 2010).

Valérie K. Orlando, Francophone Voices of the “New” Morocco in Film and Print: (Re)presenting a Society in Transition (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009).

Larbi Sadiki and Brieg, Powel, Europe and Tunisia, Democratization via Association (Routledge, 2010).

Zahia Smail Salhi (ed.), Gender and Diversity in the Middle East and North Africa (Routledge, 2010).

Eduard Soler i Lecha and Jordi Vaquer i Fanés, “The Mediterranean in the EU’s Spanish Presidency: A Priority in Turbulent Times” (Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 15, No. 1, March 2010): 73-79.

Trevor A. Witton, “Europe–Algeria Energy Relations: Opportunities and Challenges” (Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 15, No. 1, March 2010): 91-97.

EditorS | Paulo Gorjão • Tobias Schumacher assistant editors | Diogo Noivo • Kai Thaler DESIGN | Atelier Teresa Cardoso Bastos PRINTING | Europress

Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security (IPRIS) Rua Vitorino Nemésio, 5 - 1750-306 Lisboa PORTUGAL http://www.ipris.org email: [email protected]

IPRIS Maghreb Review is a publication of IPRIS. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of IPRIS.