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An Analysis of Stock Market Investment Patterns in Emerging Countries from a Behavioral and a Traditional Perspective

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An Analysis of Stock Market Investment Patterns in Emerging Countries from a Behavioral and a Traditional Perspective NAİME USUL NAİME ESSAYS IN CORPORATE FINANCE: AN ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT PATTERNS OF STOCK ANALYSIS MARKET INVESTMENT AN IN EMERGING COUNTRIES FROM A BEHAVIORAL COUNTRIES FROMAND A IN EMERGING A BEHAVIORAL AN ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT PATTERNS IN EMERGING COUNTRIES FROM A BEHAVIORAL AND A TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVE ESSAYS IN FINANCE: ESSAYS CORPORATE TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVE TRADITIONAL A Ph.D. Dissertation by NAİME USUL Bilkent University Department of Management İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University Ankara 2017 June 2017 i ii To my dearest baby girl Almina iii ESSAYS IN CORPORATE FINANCE: AN ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT PATTERNS IN EMERGING COUNTRIES FROM A BEHAVIORAL AND A TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVE The Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University by NAİME USUL In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN MANAGEMENT THE DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA June 2017 iv v ABSTRACT ESSAYS IN CORPORATE FINANCE: AN ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT PATTERNS IN EMERGING COUNTRIES FROM A BEHAVIORAL AND A TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVE Usul, Naime Department of Management Supervisor: Assist. Prof. Dr. Tanseli Savaşer Co-Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Özlem Özdemir June 2017 This thesis investigates the investment patterns in emerging stock markets first from a behavioral then from a traditional perspective. The first two chapters deal with affective motivations in the stock investment decision. First, we develop the hypothesis concerning the affect-based investment motivations in the stock markets and the role of affective self-affinity. Based on Social Identity Theory, Affect literature, Socially Responsible Investing literature and Home Bias literature, we propose that identification with different dimensions of a company may trigger affect-based extra investment motivation. The following chapter tests the hypotheses developed in the first chapter using partial least squares path analysis with Turkish stock investors. We conclude that the ideas of socially responsible investing and nationalism have significant positive effects on the investment motivation. Likewise, the people and the groups that the investors identify iii themselves with have significant positive effects on the affect-based motivations to invest in the companies, which are perceived to support those people and groups. The last chapter, studies the return patterns in MENA stock markets during the Arab Spring events in an event study setting. Considering the three-year period of 2010- 2013, we study the effects of 172 events on the stock markets of nine countries in the region, namely; Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia. Using Brown and Warner (1985) event study methodology, we have found some events have relatively large effects, though we cannot find significant reactions on the average. Hence, we cannot conclude that stock markets react significantly to the events during Arab Spring. Keywords: Affect, Emerging Markets, Investor Behavior, Socially Responsible Investing, Stock Market Investment Patterns. iv ÖZET KURUMSAL FİNANS ALANINDA ÇALIŞMALAR: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDEKİ HİSSE SENEDİ YATIRIM SEYRİNİN DAVRANIŞSAL VE GELENEKSEL PERSPEKTİFTEN İNCELENMESİ Usul, Naime Doktora, İşletme Bölümü Tez Danışmanı: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Tanseli Savaşer 2. Tez Danışmanı: Prof. Dr. Özlem Özdemir Haziran 2017 Bu tez gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki hisse senedi yatırım seyrini öncelikle davranışsal sonra da geleneksel finans perspektifinden incelemektedir. İlk iki bölüm hisse senedi yatırım kararında duygusal motivasyonları konu edinmektedir.Öncelikle, hisse senedi piyasalarında duygusal yatırım motivasyonları ve duygusal benlik çekiminin rolü ile ilgili hipotezler oluşturulmuştur. Sosyal Kimlik Kuramı, Duygu Literatürü, Sosyal Yatırım Literatürü ve Yerli Varlıklara Yatırım Önyargısı baz alınarak, bir şirketin farklı özellikleri ile özdeşleşmenin duygusal yatırım motivasyonunu tetikleyebileceği öngörülmüştür.Bir sonraki bölümde de kısmî iv küçük kareler yol analizi kullanılarak ilk bölümde geliştirilen hipotezler Türk hisse senedi yatırımcıları üzerinde test edilmiştir. Bu testler sonucunda, sosyal yatırım ve milliyetçilik düşüncelerinin yatırım motivasyonu üzerine anlamlı arttırıcı etkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Aynı şekilde, yatırımcıların kendilerini özdeşleştirdiği grup ve kişilerin, o grup ve kişileri desteklediği düşünülen şirketlere yatırım yapma noktasında duygusal motivasyon üzerine anlamlı ve arttırıcı etkisi vardır. Son bölüm ise, bir vaka analizi zemininde Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika bölgesi hisse senedi piyasalarının Arap Baharı olayları boyunca getiri seyrini incelemektedir. 2010- 2013 yılları arasındaki üç yıllık zaman dilimi dikkate alınarak, 172 olayın bölgedeki dokuz hisse senedi piyasasına olan etkileri çalışılmıştır. Bu ülkeler; Bahreyn, Mısır, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Lübnan, Fas, Suudi Arabistan, Suriye ve Tunus’tur. Brown ve Warner (1985) vaka analizi yöntemi kullanılarak,bazı olayların görece büyük etkileri olduğunu bulmakla beraber ortalamada anlamlı bir etki görülmemiştir. Böylece, hisse senedi piyasalarının Arap Baharı olaylarına karşı genelde anlamlı bir tepkisi olduğu sonucuna varılamamıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Duygu, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Hisse Senedi Piyasaları Yatırım Seyri, Sosyal Yatırım, Yatırımcı Davranışı. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my supervisor Assist. Prof. Dr. Tanseli Savaşer and my co-supervisor Prof. Dr. Özlem Özdemir for their valuable guidance and inspiration. I am deeply indebted to them for stimulating suggestions and encouragement. Their deep knowledge in finance and outstanding talent in asking the most fundamental and challenging questions contributed a lot to this study. I am grateful for the time and effort they have devoted to this study. Sincere thanks are also extended to the other members of the examining committee, Prof. Dr. Aslıhan Salih and Assist. Prof. Dr. Emin Karagözoğlu, for their helpful suggestions and the encouragement they have provided. I would also like to thank The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for the scholarship they provided during my graduate study. I am also thankful to other graduate students in the department for the friendly atmosphere they have provided. Special thanks are extended to my office mates Işıl Sevilay Yılmaz, Burze Kutur Yaşar and İdil Ayberk for sharing with me all the difficulties I encountered during the process of thesis writing. I am also grateful to the faculty staff, especially Rabia Hırlakoğlu and Remin Tantoğlu for their help and constant support. iii Finally yet importantly, I would also like to thank my husband Alihan Usul, my daughter Almina Usul for their unconditional love and encouragement throughout this study. Special thanks are extended to my family Hacı Hasan Geredeli, Mübeyyen Geredeli, Fatih Geredeli, Talha Geredeli, and Hatice Kübra Geredeli and to my mother in law Aynur Usul for their priceless support throughout this study. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. iii ÖZET.. .......................................................................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION OF THE STUDY ................ 1 1.1 Summary of Findings ................................................................................... 5 1.2 Organization of this study ............................................................................ 9 CHAPTER 2 BEHAVIORAL APPROACH: THEORY ........................................... 12 2.1 Rational Investors ....................................................................................... 13 2.2 Challenge by Behavioral Finance .............................................................. 15 2.2.1 Limits to Arbitrage .............................................................................. 17 2.2.2 Psychology .......................................................................................... 20 2.3 Hypotheses Development ........................................................................... 28 2.3.1 Hypothesis Concerning Positive Attitude ........................................... 28 2.3.2 Hypotheses Concerning Antecedents of Affective Self-affinity (Identification with the Company) ............................................................... 30 2.4 Significance of Turkish Stock Market and Individual Investors ............... 35 2.5 Contribution of This Study ......................................................................... 40 CHAPTER 3 BEHAVIORAL APPROACH: EMPRICAL TESTS .......................... 42 v 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 42 3.2 Brief Literature and Hypotheses ................................................................ 46 3.2.1 Affective Self-Affinity
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