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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1St to 10Th June 2021

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Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1St to 10Th June 2021 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 82 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th June 2021 st 1 June 2021 © NOCC June 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°82 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th June 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th May st th 2021. This dekad from 1 to 10 June 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the northern part of the Sudano-Sahelian zone and by the influence of the monsoon on the rest of the country. II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yaounde, Ngambe, Tikar and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Akom II, Ambam, Kribi and Zoetele in the South region; - Makam and Foumbot in the West region; - Furu Awa and Audu in the North West region; - Idenau, Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; - Loum, Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Mouanko, Douala, Dizangue, Ndokiti III and Dibombari in the Littoral region. NB1: This dekad from the 1st to 10th June 2021 will be marked by significant heat wave risks (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in many localities of the Far North region (Makary, Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele, Gamboura and Yagoua), the Centre region (Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yaounde), the South (Djoum, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo, Ebolowa, Kribi, Ambam and Lolodorf), the East (Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Mbalam, Belabo, Kika and Mindourou) and Littoral (Loum, Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja). II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - Lolodorf in the South region; - Mundemba in the South West region. NB2: This dekad from the 1st to 10th June 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) regions. II.2. For Precipitation This period from 1st to 10th June 2021 will be marked by a general increase in rainfall amounts compared to the average rainfall recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th May over the national territory except for the Adamawa and East regions where a slight decrease would be observed. NB3: This dekad, from 1st to 10th June 2021 corresponds to - the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions); - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Mono-modal rain forest zone (Littoral and South West regions) and the Guinean High Savannah Zone (Adamawa). - the gradual end of the dry season in the Sudano-sahelain zone (Far North and North regions). 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th June 2021 1) For precipitation For the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rainfall in the southern part of the North region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts slightly above average those for the dekad of 21st to 30th May 2021 in Yimbere, Meiganga and Tibati; below average in Ngaoundere and around the average in Banyo, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal and Tignere. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone (b) - Above average rainfall amounts recorded (a) during the dekad of May 21-30, 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Yoko and Ngoro in the Centre region; - Much higher than average rainfall amounts recorded from May 21 to 30, 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Kribi, Zoetele, Campo, Akom II, Sangmelima and Ambam; around average in Lolodorf and Nyabizan in the South region; - Rainfall amounts around the average recorded from May 21st to 30th, 2021 in Lomie, Belabo and Bertoua; below average in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Yokadouma, Abong- Mbang, Batouri and Betare-Oya in the East region. Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that recorded during the period May 21-30, 2021 (a) d) In the High plateaux zone Source: NOCC, June 2021 - Above average rainfall amounts recorded from May 21st to 30th, 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga and Makam; around average rainfall amounts in Bafoussam, Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, NB 4: Bazou Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bangangte, st th Massagam and Bare-Bakem in the West For the dekad from 1 to 10 June 2021, we expect: r egion; - a continuation of the short rainy season in the bimodal rain forest - Above average rainfall amounts recorded zone (Centre, South and East regions); st th in the dekad of May 21 to 30 , 2021 in - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West Nwa, Kumbo and Ndop; around average and North-West regions) and the monomodal rain forest zone rainfall amounts in Benakuma, Fundong, Nkam be, Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, (Littoral and South West regions) and the Guinean High Savannah Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, zone (Adamawa region). Fungom and Ako in the North West region. - a progression towards the end of the dry season in the Sudano- Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions); e) In the Mono-modal rain forest zone rainfall amounts higher than those recorded st th during the dekad from 21 to 30 May 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, Dikome Balue and Fontem in the South-West Region; - rainfall amounts way above those recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Edea, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Foumban, Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Koutaba, Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; above the mean in Foumbot
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