REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 82

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th June 2021

st 1 June 2021

© NOCC June 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography).

ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°82 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th June 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021. This dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan in the northern part of the Sudano-Sahelian zone and by the influence of the monsoon on the rest of the country.

II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - , , Eseka, , , , Monatele, , , Yaounde, , Tikar and Yoko in the ; - , , Lomie, , Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo in the ; - Akom II, Ambam, Kribi and Zoetele in the South region; - Makam and Foumbot in the West region; - Furu Awa and Audu in the North West region; - Idenau, Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; - Loum, Ndokama, , , , Melong, Mbanga, , , , , Dizangue, Ndokiti III and in the Littoral region. NB1: This dekad from the 1st to 10th June 2021 will be marked by significant heat wave risks (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in many localities of the Far North region (Makary, Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele, Gamboura and Yagoua), the Centre region (Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yaounde), the South (Djoum, Zoetele, Nyabizan, Akom II, Campo, Ebolowa, Kribi, Ambam and Lolodorf), the East (Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Mbalam, Belabo, Kika and ) and Littoral (Loum, Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba and Penja).

II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai in the East region; - Lolodorf in the South region; - Mundemba in the South West region. NB2: This dekad from the 1st to 10th June 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities of the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) regions.

II.2. For Precipitation This period from 1st to 10th June 2021 will be marked by a general increase in rainfall amounts compared to the average rainfall recorded in the dekad st th from 21 to 30 May over the national territory except for the Adamawa and East regions where a slight decrease would be observed.

NB3: This dekad, from 1st to 10th June 2021 corresponds to

- the continuation of the short rainy season in the Bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions);

- the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and in the Mono-modal rain forest zone (Littoral and

South West regions) and the Guinean High Savannah Zone (Adamawa).

- the gradual end of the dry season in the Sudano-sahelain zone (Far North and North regions).

2

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th June 2021

1) For precipitation

For the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021, we expect: a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Sporadic rainfall in the southern part of the North region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Rainfall amounts slightly above average those for the dekad of 21st to 30th May 2021 in Yimbere, Meiganga and Tibati; below average in Ngaoundere and around the average in Banyo, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal and Tignere. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone (b) - Above average rainfall amounts recorded (a) during the dekad of May 21-30, 2021 in Bafia, , Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Yaounde, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Yoko and Ngoro in the Centre region; - Much higher than average rainfall amounts recorded from May 21 to 30, 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Kribi, Zoetele, Campo, Akom II, Sangmelima and Ambam; around average in Lolodorf and Nyabizan in the South region; - Rainfall amounts around the average recorded from May 21st to 30th, 2021 in Lomie, Belabo and Bertoua; below average in Moloundou, Ngoyla, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Yokadouma, Abong- Mbang, Batouri and Betare-Oya in the East region. Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that recorded during the period May 21-30, 2021 (a) d) In the High plateaux zone Source: NOCC, June 2021 - Above average rainfall amounts recorded from May 21st to 30th, 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga and Makam; around average rainfall amounts in Bafoussam, Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, NB 4: Bazou Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bangangte, st th Massagam and Bare-Bakem in the West For the dekad from 1 to 10 June 2021, we expect: r egion; - a continuation of the short rainy season in the bimodal rain forest - Above average rainfall amounts recorded zone (Centre, South and East regions); st th in the dekad of May 21 to 30 , 2021 in - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West Nwa, Kumbo and Ndop; around average and North-West regions) and the monomodal rain forest zone rainfall amounts in Benakuma, Fundong, be, Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, (Littoral and South West regions) and the Guinean High Savannah Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, zone (Adamawa region). Fungom and Ako in the North West region. - a progression towards the end of the dry season in the Sudano- Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions); e) In the Mono-modal rain forest zone rainfall amounts higher than those recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, Dikome Balue and Fontem in the South-West Region; - rainfall amounts way above those recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Dibombari, Edea, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the Littoral Region. 3

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Foumban, Based on the historical mean of maximum temperatures recorded Koutaba, Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; above the mean in Foumbot and Makam in during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably the West region; 36.18 °C in the Far North region; 34.04°C in the North region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Idenau, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Muyuka, 30.36°C in the Adamawa region; 28°C in the Centre region; Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Mamfe, Fontem, Nguti and Ekok; above the historical mean in 28.5°C in the South region; 28.78°C in the East region; 25.19°C Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; in the West region; 25.7°C in the North West region; 26.83°C in - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Loum, Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, the South West region and 26.9°C in the Littoral region, the Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Mouanko, Douala, Dizangue, Ndokiti III, Dibombari st th following temperatures are expected for the dekad from 1 to 10 and Edea; around the historical mean in in the Littoral region. June 2021: - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Kaele, Kousseri, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo, Waza, Gambora and Mokolo; below the historical mean in Makari and Mora in the Far North region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Guider and Poli; above the historical mean in Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Dembo, Garoua Touboro, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou; below the historical mean in Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere in the (a) Adamawa region; (b) - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Obala Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yaounde, Ngambe Tikar and Yoko in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua-Boulai, Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong- Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam, Belabo, Libongo and Mambele; around the historical mean in Betare-Oya, , Mindourou and Doume in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Ambam, Kribi and Zoetele; around the historical mean in Sangmelima, Akom II, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Lolodorf in the South region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa and Audu; around the mean in Munkep, Ako, Bali, Santa, Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Bambalang, Fundong, Benakuma, registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, June 2021)

Nwa, Wum and Esu in the North West region. 4

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021, for the dekad from 1st Benakuma, Esu, Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop and Wum; below the to 10th June 2021, there is a high probability of registering maximum average in Audu in the North West region; temperatures: - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in st th - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 Bangangte, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, May 2021 in Waza, Kousseri, Mindif, Maroua, Maga, Yagoua Bafang, Bazou, Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West region. and Kaele; below the average in Mora and above the average in

Bogo in the Far North Region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Dembo and Guider in the North region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou, Tibati, Ngaoundere, Yimbere and Nassarao; below the average in Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Kongolo, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua; below the average in Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Doume, Dimako and Mindourou in (a) (b) the East region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Ngoro, , Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, , Nkoteng, Obala, Bafia and Mbalmayo; below average in Eseka and Yaounde in the Centre region; - around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Zoetele, Akom II, Kribi, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Lolodorf and Ambam; below average in Djoum, Nyabizan and Campo; above the average in Sangmelima in the South region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Bamusso, Ekok, Mundemba Tiko, Limbe, Nguti, Kumba, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Idenau, Fontem and Buea; below the average in Eyumojock and Mamfe in the South West region; st th - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 May 2021 in Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to the Melong, Nkongsamba, , Manjo, Ngambe, , Ndom, dekad from 21st to 30thMay 2021 (a) Dizangue, Douala, , Edea, Ndokama, Loum, Mouanko, Source: NOCC, June 2021 Yabassi and Mbanga; below the average in Baptek in the Littoral 5 region;

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Eseka, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Yaounde, Ngambe Tikar and

Yoko in the Centre region;

- Akom II, Ambam, Kribi and Zoetele in the South region; - Furu Awa and Audu in the North West region; - Makam and Foumbot in the West Region; - Idenau, Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; - Loum, Ndokama, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Mouanko, Douala, Dizangue, Ndokiti

III and Dibombari in the Littoral region.

6

b) For Minimum Temperatures -above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa, Ako and Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures Audu; around the historical mean in Wum, Nwa, Munkep, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop, and recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 25°C in the Far North Benakuma in the North West region; Region; 24°C in the North Region; 21.6°C in the Adamawa - around the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Region; 19°C in the Centre Region; 20.7°C in the South Region; Bamusso, Bakogo, Nguti, Dikome Bafaw, Mamfe, Ekang and Eyumojock; above the historical mean 19.4°C in the East Region; 17.1°C in the West Region; 16.6°C in in Idenau, Tiko, Limbe, Buea and Kumba; below the historical mean in Mundemba in the South the North-West Region; 20.6°C in the South-West Region and West region; 18.4°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad from 1st to 10th June - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Edea, Mouanko and Baptek; around the historical mean in Ndokama, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Douala, Manjo, 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from Penja, Nkongsamba and Loum in the Littoral Region.

1979 to 2018 in Gambora, Mokolo and Mora; around the historical mean in Waza, Makari, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga, Mindif and Yagoua in the Far North region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo and Lagdo; below the historical mean in Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Touboro, Guider, and Tchollire in the North region; - below the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; above the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere Banyo and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from (a) 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, , Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, Bafia, (b) Mbalmayo, Ngambe Tikar, Nanga Eboko, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded during the period from 1979 to 2018 in Ngoyla, Koso, Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Moloundou and Betare Oya, and Batouri; below average in Garoua-Boulai and Mambele in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Campo, Zoetele, Minkoumou, Ebolowa and Akom II; below the historical mean in Lolodorf; around the historical mean in Djoum, Ambam and Nyabizan in the South region; - around the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Bamendjing,

Tonga and Bangangte; above the historical mean in Foumban, Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to Makam and Foumban; below the historical mean in Bazou in the historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period. Source: NOCC, June 2021 West region; 7

Based on the difference between the average minimum - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, st th temperatures recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 May 2021, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Furu Awa and Wum; below the there is a high probability during the dekad from 1st to 10th June average in Nwa in the North West region; 2021 of registering minimum temperatures: - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, st th - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 May 2021 in Ekok, Ekang, Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Buea, Kumba and Mindif, Yagoua, Makari, Bogo, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Maroua, Nguti in the South West region. Waza and Mora; below the average in Mokolo in the Far North region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Tchollire, Dembo, Garoua, Rey Bouba Pitoa and Lagdo; below the average in Guider, Poli and Touboro in the North region; - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Tibati, Tignere and Banyo; below the average in Meiganga and Ngaoundere; above the average in Banyo in the Adamawa region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Nkoteng, Ngambe Tikar, Yaounde, Obala, (a) (b) Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Eseka, Monatele, Yoko and Bafia in the Centre region; - around the average recorded for the period from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Moloundou, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Betare Oya, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla and Yokadouma; above the average in Doume in the East region; - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima, Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South region; - around the average recorded from 21st to 30th May 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Makam Mbouda, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot in the West region; st th - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 May 2021 in Penja, Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those Yabassi, Mouanko, Edea, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th May 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, June 2021 region.

8

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

- Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai in the East region;

- Lolodorf in the South region.

9

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording: • increased bush fires due to the dry season combined with the effect of dry winds and high - continued drying up of water supply points as a result of the drought and the continued temperatures, resulting in the destruction of fields in the Far North region; decrease in the water table in the Far North region and the northern part of the North region. • water stress, for vegetable and food crops in the Far North, following the accentuation of the - a high risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, water collection and treatment dryness; points in the Far North Region and the northern part of the Northern Region • destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, South West and - falling of electricity poles as a result of heavy rains accompanied by strong winds in the Littoral regions, following heavy rains accompanied by violent winds. Guinea High Savannah zone, the bimodal rain forest zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, and the High Plateaux zone; b) In the health sector: -A risk of contamination of groundwater, surface water, and water catchment points by A risk of recording cases of: polluted runoff in the bimodal rain forest zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, the • meningococcal meningitis, due to the severe dry season in the Far North region, coupled with Guinean high savannah zone, and the highlands zone. the increased dust in the air; • water-borne diarrheal diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), following the scarcity and e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: / or poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; A high risk of recording numerous cases of: • Cases of cholera in some towns in the bimodal rain forest zone and the Guinean high - bush fires in many localities in the Far North and North regions; savannah zone, the monomodal rain forest zone (Douala, Bakassi, etc.), following the - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to wildlife roaming outside reserves in search contamination of drinking water by polluted runoff water; of water and food, in the Far North and North regions; • respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), following the - conflict between populations and certain wildlife species (Elephants, Lions etc.) in search dust increasingly present in the air and the cold which prevails during this period, especially at of water and food, in the Far North and North regions. night in the Far North, North and the North regions; - morning fog resulting in traffic accidents in many localities in the Centre, South and East • conjunctivitis due to the combined effect of heat, wind and dust in the air in the Far North, regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and North West regions (highlands zone) and South North and the Northern regions; West r egion (monomodal rain forest zone); • general pathologies, due to the heat of the day and the cold of the night in people suffering - flooding in some localities, especially in the large towns in the bimodal rain forest zone, from hypertension, obesity, women in menopause, people with diabetics, in the 05 Agro- some localities in the monomodal rain forest zone (Douala, Nkongsamba, etc.), and some ecological Zones; localities in the south and east of the Adamawa region; • multiplication of malaria vector mosquitoes, in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones, following the - landslides in some localities in the North West and West regions (High Plateaux zone), proliferation of puddles of water. following the saturation of the soil with water from the rains recorded since the beginning of the rainy season. c) For the livestock sector A high risk of recording cases of: f) In the defence and security sector: • a massive migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and pasture in the A risk of recording cases of: regions of the Far North, North and various localities in the northern parts of the North region; - conflicts between cattle rearers and farmers in their search for water sources and food in • an increase in pastoralist-farmer conflicts and conflicts between pastoralists around water the Far North and North regions. points, plains and lowlands in the regions of the Far North and North regions; - conflicts between populations in search of water resources and food in the Far North and • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold prevailing in certain localities in the West North regions, due to the continuous drying up of water points; (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang) and North West (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, - conflicts between populations in search of natural resources, as a result of the continuous Bamenda and Santa) regions; drying up of water points due to the severity of the dry season in the Far North and North • cases of loss of animals due to lightning discharge in the Guinea High Savannah zone. regions. • a scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, North and various localities in the northern parts of the North region.

10

st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 21 to 30 May 2021

High Guinean Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rain forest High plateau Mono-modal Rain Forest Savannah Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 25 24 21,6 19,4 19 20,7 17,1 16,6 20,6 18,4

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Success rates of Forecasts (%) 88,3 85,7 85 86,4 85,5 83,2 80 86,4 85,9 87 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 37,18 34,6 31,16 31,7 27,81 28,63 25,91 26,42 27,43 26,42 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 85 82,5 85 80,7 88,5 83,5 87,9 82,6 84,1 81,6 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction ; = Increase

11

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: In the health sector, continue to Plan agricultural activities, especially in the sowing season by referring to the agricultural calendar developed by NOCC for the 2021 agricultural campaign.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ apply appropriate lubricants to nostrils or put on facemasks to reduce entry of dust particles; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

In the water and energy sector, proceed with ▪ the sampling, analysis and regular treatment of drinking water at the level of catchment sites and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (decanting, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at the household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]