OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR Dekadal Bullandin from 21st to 29th February, 2020 LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES Bullandin no 36 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

DIRECTION GENERALE - DIRECTORATE GENERAL ONACC ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; email: [email protected]; Tel (237) 693 370 504 CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 29th FEBRUARY, 2020

Supervision NB: It should be noted that this forecast is developed Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change using spatial data from: (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, . - the International Institute for Climate and Sociandy Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (IRI) of Columbia University, USA; (ONACC). - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ProductionTeam (ONACC) Administration (NOAA), USA; Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, ONACC and Lecturer in the - AccuWeather (American Institution specialized in Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. mandeorological forecasts), USA; Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, ONACC. - the African Centre for Applied Mandeorology for BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, Technical staff, ONACC. Development (ACMAD). ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. - Spatial data, from 1979 to 2018 relative to Ocean NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography. Pacific, as well as the intensity of the El-Niño/La ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC Nina episodes in the Pacific, precipitation and ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. temperatures from local stations.

- ONACC’s research works.

I. INTRODUCTION

This ten-day alert bulletin n°36 reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018 and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones for the period February 21st to 29th, 2020. It also highlights the potential risks, threats and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. It also assesses forecasts made for the ten-day period from 11th to 20th February, 2020. This current dekad is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country and by the installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the country. Morning fogs will also be observed during this period throughout the national territory.

II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 29th FEBRUARY, 2020

II.1. For Temperatures

The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Bogo, Yagoua, Maga, Maroua, Kaele, Mora and Waza in the Far North region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region; - Belabo, , , , Abong-Mbang, , , and Lomie in the ; - Lolodorf, Campo, Zoetele, Sangmelima and Djoum in the South region; - Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafang and Bangangte in the West region; - Eyumojock, Mamfe, Muyuka, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba in the South West region; - Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. NB: 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. 2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, and above 32°C in the Centre and South regions. The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Yaounde in the Centre region; - Lolodorf, Zoetele, Sangmelima and Akom II in the South region; - Mindourou in the East region; - Mbouda, Dschang and Bafang in the West region; - Fontem and Kumba in the South West region. NB:The current dekad shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures in the Extreme North, North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region, Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region; Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. These could also lead to cold waves. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences of up to 10°C in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region, Banyo in the Adamawa region, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region. II.2. For Precipitations Periodic and low intensity rainfall could be observed in the localities of Eseka and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; Ngoila and Ngoila and Moloundou in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region; Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; Loum et Mouanko in the Littoral region.

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II.3. For visibility and air quality We expect increased morning fog and haze, with a high risk of traffic accidents for road users, in the localities of Eseka Monatele, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Mbitom, Ngoila, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Mouloundou and Lomie in the East region; Kribi, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong and Benakuma in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutenguene and Idenau in the South West region.

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 29th February, 2020

1) For precipitations NB : We expect: This period is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which causes a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country and by the - A high probability of recording no rainfall in installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the the North and Far North regions; country. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone - A high probability of recording no rainfall in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - A high probability of sporadic and low intensity rainfall in the localities of Eseka and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; Ngoila and Mouloundou in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - A probability of recording no rainfall in the localities of the North West region; - a high probability of recording no rainfall in the West region. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone - Sporadic and low intensity rains in the localities of Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; Loum, Edea and Mouanko in the Littoral region. 2) For visibility and air quality A persistence of morning fog and mist, already observed in the last dekad is expected in the Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall for the current dekad compared to that of the previous th th localities of Eseka, Yaounde and Akonolinga in dekad from February 11 to 20 , 2020 Source : ONACC, February 2020 the Centre region; Lomie, Ngoila, Mindourou andLimbe Mouloundou in the East region; Kribi and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, NB: Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou 1) This dekad from 21st to 29th February, 2020 corresponds to the extension of in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), in Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Santa, the Guinea high savannah zone (Adamawa region), the high plateau zone (West Bamenda, Wum, Kumbo, Fundong, Benakuma and North West regions), Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South and Bambalang in the North West region; West regions). 2) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions) this Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, period corresponds to an extension of the long dry season. Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutengene and Idenau in the South West region.

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2) For Temperatures

a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical average of maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 36.26°C in the Far North region, 38°C in the North region, 35°C in the Adamawa region, 29°C in the Centre, 29.62°C in the South region, 30.36 in the East regions, 27.44°C in West, 29.5 in the North West, 29.8°C in the South West region, 28.5°C in the In the Littoral region, there is a high probability of recording; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from to 2018 in Kousseri; below the historical average in Mokolo and Mindif and above 1979 to 2018 at Campo, Lolodorf, Zoatele Sangmelima and Djoum and around the historical average in Bogo, Yagoua, Maga, Maroua, Kaele, Mora and Waza in the historical average in Akom II, Kribi and Ebolowa in the South region; the Far North region; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 1979 to 2018 in, Wum, Kumbo and Bali and below the historical average in to 2018 at Poli, Dembo, Lagdo, Pitoa, Guider, Touboro, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in Benakuma in the North West region; the North region; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 1979 to 2018 in Tiko, Idenau, Buea, Limbe and above the historical average in to 2018 in Tibati, Meiganga, Tignere, Banyo and Ngaoundere; around the historical Eyumojock, Mamfe, Bamusso, Kumba, Muyuka, Mundemba and Fontem in the average at Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; South West region; - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from to 2018 in Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, 1979 to 2018 in Mouanko, Melong Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, in the Centre region; Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Betare Oya; above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Ngoila and NB: We note a very high risk of observing heat waves characterised by Lomie in the East region; temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 territory, and particularly in the Far North, North, Centre, South and East to 2018 in Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bangangte and around region. the historical average in Mbouda, Bafoussam and Dschang in the West region;

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (b) and expected anomalies for the current dekad. (Source: ONACC, February 2020)

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Based on the difference bandween the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th February, 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 21st to 29th February 2020, there is a high probability of registering:

th th th th - mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 11 to 20 February, 2020 - average maximum temperatures lower than those recorded from 11 to 20 February in Kousseri; above the average recorded during the last dekad in Mindif, Kaele, Maroua, 2020 in Akom II, Ebolowa, Zoetele; Lolodorf, Sangmelima and Djoum and around the Mora, Waza, Bogo, Maga and Yagoua in the Far North region; mean recorded during the last dekad in Kribi and Campo in the South region; - mean maximum temperatures above than those recorded from 11th to 20th February, - mean maximum temperatures below those recorded from 11th to 20th February, 2020 2020 in Poli; and around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th February, 2020 in in Fontem, Limbe, Buea, Idenau, Mundemba, Kumba, Muyuka, Tiko, Eyumojock and

Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Dembo, Touboro, Garoua, Guider and Lagdo and higher than the Mundemba; higher than that recorded in the last dekad in and Mamfe in the South West mean in Dembo in the North region; region; - mean maximum temperatures below those recorded in the last dekad in Tibati, - average maximum temperatures below the average recorded from 11th to 20th Meiganga, Banyo and Mbakaou; around those recorded from 11th to 20th February, 2020 February, 2020 in Edea and above the average recorded in Mouanko, Melong, in Tignere and Ngaoundere and in the Adamawa region; Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the - mean maximum temperatures below those recorded in the last dekad in Abong- Littoral region. Mbang, Ngoila, Lomie, Mindourou, Betare Oya, Yokadouma, Bertoua, Belabo and - mean maximum temperatures below the average recorded from 11th to 20th February , Batouri; below the average recorded from 11th to 20th February, 2020 in Bandare Oya; 2020 in Bali and around the average in Wum, Kumbo, Santa and Bamenda in the North and around the mean registered in the last dekad in Mouloundou in the East region; West region; - average maximum temperatures lower than those recorded from 11th to 20th February - mean maximum temperatures below the average recorded from 11th to 20th February, 2020 in Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Nkoteng, Eseka, Obala, Monatele, Bafia, 2020 in Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam and Tonga, in Ngoro, Yoko and Nanga Eboko, in the Centre region; the West region.

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures forecast for current dekad (b) compared to the dekad from 11th to 20th February 2020, (a) expected anomalies for the period from 21st to 29th February 2020(c). Source: ONACC, February 2020

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 29th February 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of

experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historic means for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include:

- Bogo, Yagoua, Maga, Maroua, Kaele, Mora and Waza in the Far North region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region; - Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Moloundou, Ngoila and Lomie in the East region;

- Lolodorf, Campo, Zoetele, Sangmelima, Djoum, in the South region; - Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafang and Bangangte in the West region; - Eyumojock, Mamfe, Muyuka, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba, in the South West region; - Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region.

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b) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 20.3°C in the Far North region, 18.6°C in the Adamawa region, 22.3°C in the North region, 20.3°C in the East region, 16.6°C in the West, 16.8 in the North West regions; 19.6°C in the Centre region, 21.2°C in the South region, 21.6°C in the South West region, 18.7°C in the Littoral region, there is a high probability registering: - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 2018 in Kaele, Waza, Mora and Maroua, Mindif, Bogo, Kousseri, Maga and Yagoua, in to 2018 in Yoko, Bafia and Eseka and around the historical average in Ngoro, the Far North region; Monatele, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Yaounde and Obala and in the Centre Region; - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 2018 in Poli, Rey Bouba, Mandingrin, Touboro, Tchollire and Lagdo; average minimum to 2018 in Tonga, Bazou and Bangangte and above the historical average in Bafang, temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dembo, Foumban, Bamendjing, Bafoussam and Dschang, in the West Region; Garoua, Lagdo and Pitoa in the North region; - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to to 2018 in Bali, Fundong, Benakuma and Wum in the North-West Region; 2018 in Ngaoundere, Mbakaou and Meiganga; and above the historical average in - minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 Tignere, Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa region; in Eyumojock and Mamfe; above the average in and below the historic average in - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to Mundemba, Idenau Tiko, Kumba, Bamusso and Muyuka, in the South West region. 2018 in Yokadouma and Garoua Boulai; and above the historical average in Lomie, - -minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua, Moloundou and Mindourou and around the in Mbanga, Yabassi, Loum, Douala, Dizangue, Edea, Mouanko, Manjo, Melong, historical average in Betare Oya, in the East Region; Nkongsamba, and Penja and above the historic average in in the Littoral region. - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Nyabisan, Campo, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Kribi; Lolodorf, Djoum and Ebolowa and below the historical average in Akom II in the South region;

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same (a) (b) (c) period (b) and expected anomalies for the period from 21st to 29th February, 2020. (c) Source: ONACC, February 2020

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Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th February, 2020 and the average minimum temperatures expected for the dekad from 21st to 29th February, 2020, there is a high probability of registering: - average minimum temperatures lower than those recorded from 11th to 20th - average minimum temperatures above the average recorded from 11th to February, 2020 in Maroua, Mora, Mokolo and Waza and around those 20th February 2020 in Campo; around the average recorded from 11th to th th th recorded from 11 to 20 February, 2020 in Maga, Mindif, Yagoua 20 February, 2020 in Akom II, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Kousseri and Kaele in the Far North region; and Djoum in the South region; - average minimum temperatures lower than those recorded from 11th to 20th - mean minimum temperatures above the mean recorded from 11th to 20th February, 2020 in Mandingrin, Rey Bouba, Tchollirie, Poli and Touboro February 2020 in Tonga, Bazou and Bangangte; around than the mean at around the average in Pitoa in the North region ; Foumban, Bafang, Bafoussam, Dschang and Bamending and above the - average minimum temperatures above the average recorded from 11th to average recorded from 11th to 20th February 2020 in Tonga in the West 20th February, 2020 in Bafia, Ngoro and Eseka; around the average recorded region; from 11th to 20th February 2020 in Yoko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Obala, - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th Yaounde and Mbalmayo, in the Centre region; February, 2020 in Kumba, Mamfe, Tiko, Bamusso, Muyuka, Mundemba - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from 11th to and Idenau and above the mean in Eyumojock in the South-West Region; 20th February, 2020 in Betare Oya and Yokadouma; around the average in - mean minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 11th to Garoua Boulai, Lomie, Mindourou, , Ngoila, Belabo, Batouri, Mindourou, 20th February 2020 in Wum and Benakuma and lower than the mean in Bertoua, Abong Mbang and Moloundou in the East region; Fundong, Kumbo, Santa Bali and Bamenda in the North West Region. th th - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 11 to 20 February, 2020 in Mouanko, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Melong, NB: There is a high risk of an increase in cold nights in the localities of Nkongsamba, Penja, Loum, Douala, Manjo and Edea in the Littoral region; Kaele in the Far North region; Guider, Garoua, Rey Bouba and Tchollire - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from February in the North region; Tibati, Tignere and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa 11th to 20th, 2020 in Tignere, Banyo, Ngaoundere, Mbakaou and Meiganga, region; Yoko in the Centre region. in the Adamawa region ;

Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 21st to 29th February 2020 b) Compared to those registered for the dekad from 11th to 20th February 2020 (a) and expected anomalies for the period from 21st to 29th February 2020 (c). Source : ONACC, février 2020

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 29th February, 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that are very likely to experience a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to their historic values for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These localities include;

- Yaounde in the Centre region; - Lolodorf, Zoetele, Sangmelima and Akom II in the South region;

- Mindourou in the East region; - Mbouda, Dschang and Bafang in the West region;

- Fontem and Kumba in the South West region.

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IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the tourism sector: - An increase in bush fires due to the dryness of the season - high risk of recording many cases of animal migration, due to water combined with the effect of dry winds and high temperatures, shortages in tourist sites in the Far North, North, Adamawa, Centre, resulting in the destruction of plantations (cocoa, coffee, banana, South and East regions. food crops, etc.), in the Centre, South and East, North-West, e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: South-West and Littoral regions; - A risk of the occurrence of thick fog, especially in the early morning for - hydric stress, for market gardening and food crops in the five some localities and in the afternoon for others, in localities located on the agro-ecological zones, following the accentuation of the dry outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides of cities such as Yaounde, Ebolowa season . and Bertoua in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone; Bamenda, Santa, Menka, - Increased insect pest attacks on cereals in the Extreme North, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Kumbo, Bali, Fundong and Wum in the North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; Highlands zone; Fontem, Mamfe, Buea, Limbe, Kumba, Tiko, Idenau and Mutenguene, Loum, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Souza, Edea and Nkongsamba in b) In the health sector: the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone, with a high risk of traffic accidents; A risk of recording cases of: - A risk of recording many cases of: - Diarrhea, following the scarcity and poor quality of drinking water - bush fires in various localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa, in the five Agro-ecological zones; Centre, South, North West, West, South West and East regions; - meningococcal meningitis following the severe drought that is - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to their migration out of affecting some localities in the five Agro-ecological zones; reserves in search of water and food in the Far North, North, Adamawa, - Conjunctivitis due to the effects of a combination of heat and dusty Centre, South and East regions; winds in various localities in the five Agro-ecological zones; - conflicts between farmers and certain wildlife species in the Far North,

- Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in North, North and the Adamawa regions; the Far North, North, Adamawa, North West, and West regions, due to - degradation of biological diversity as a result of severe drought in the an increasing presence of dust in the air and the cold nights during this five agro-ecological zones. period; - A high risk of registering more cases of migration of some wildlife species out

of the parks in search of food and water in the five agro ecological zones. - General pathology with systematic disorders in children, people

living suffering from diabetes, obesity or any pathology requiring f) In the livestock sector: medication acting on thermoregulation in the five Agro-ecological - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to the cold weather in some zones; localities in the Far North, North and Adamawa, West, East, North West and

- Syncope and psychological stress in schools, following the torrid South west regions; - scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, North, heat, especially among asthmatic subjects in the five Agro-ecological Adamawa, Centre and North West regions zones. c) In the water and energy sector: - migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and grazing land - A risk drying up of water supply points as a result of the decrease in the Far North, North and Adamawa, North West, West, East and Centre regions; in the water level of the groundwater table in the Far North, North - increase in conflicts between herders and farmers over water points, plains and

and Adamawa; Centre, East, South, North West, West and South lowlands in the Far North, North and Adamawa, North West, West and West regions. Centre, West, South and South West regions. - a high risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, and water catchment and treatment sites.

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VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 11th to 20th February, 2020 Agro Ecological Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Soudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau zones Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 18,9 20,8 18,3 19,6 19,1 20,9 16,6 16,7 21,5 21

Trend forecasts Forecasts success 100 100 96,3 97 100 85 80 100 80,6 100 rate (%) Maximum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 35,13 36,7 34,23 30,22 29,28 29,84 28,45 28,72 29,73 28,87

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success 63,6 80 68,13 75,9 90 65,3 80 75,4 85 78,2 rate (%) Precipitations

Historic mean (mm) 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-13 0-22 5-50 0-13 0-4 0-34 5-34

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 rate (%)

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - make nurseries for market gardening and caral fields (for off-season millet) under shade; - transplant off-season crops; - make nurseries under the hedges; - sand up drip irrigation systems to irrigate plantations and nurseries in need of water in the five Agro-ecological zones; - promote drought-resistant crops and off-season crops in the Far North, North and northern parts of the Adamawa, North West, West, Centre, South and East regions; - promote the practice of integrated pest management to control pests of cereals and other crops. b) In the health sector - promote meningitis vaccination campaigns; - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, etc.); - sensitize populations to drink a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol within this period; - encourage population to consume lots of fresh vegetables and meals rich in proteins in the Far North and northern parts of the Adamawa regions; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gear for protection from the cold nights during this period; - stay under shelters or in the house (especially between noon and 3p.m. when it is extremely hot); - take a cold bath before bedtime; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets. c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases; - raise awareness to promote fodder cultivation for livestock feed and distribution of fodder crops in preparation for the dry season. d) In the water and energy sector - sensitize the administrations concerned to take into account the climate forecasts developed by ONACC in the planning of water resource management in dams and water catchment sites. (e) In the sector of the environment and biodiversity - raise awareness among populations of the risks of conflicts with wildlife species in search of food and water; - raise awareness of the risks of bushfires and their impacts on climate change as a prelude to the upcoming dry season.

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 House no 1220, Streand no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm ONACC| 11