OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR Dekadal Bullandin from 21st to 29th February, 2020 LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES Bullandin no 36 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE DIRECTION GENERALE - DIRECTORATE GENERAL ONACC ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; email: [email protected]; Tel (237) 693 370 504 CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 29th FEBRUARY, 2020 Supervision NB: It should be noted that this forecast is developed Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change using spatial data from: (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. - the International Institute for Climate and Sociandy Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (IRI) of Columbia University, USA; (ONACC). - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ProductionTeam (ONACC) Administration (NOAA), USA; Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, ONACC and Lecturer in the - AccuWeather (American Institution specialized in Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. mandeorological forecasts), USA; Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, ONACC. - the African Centre for Applied Mandeorology for BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, Technical staff, ONACC. Development (ACMAD). ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. - Spatial data, from 1979 to 2018 relative to Ocean NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography. Pacific, as well as the intensity of the El-Niño/La ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC Nina episodes in the Pacific, precipitation and ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. temperatures from local stations. - ONACC’s research works. I. INTRODUCTION This ten-day alert bulletin n°36 reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018 and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones for the period February 21st to 29th, 2020. It also highlights the potential risks, threats and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. It also assesses forecasts made for the ten-day period from 11th to 20th February, 2020. This current dekad is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country and by the installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the country. Morning fogs will also be observed during this period throughout the national territory. II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 29th FEBRUARY, 2020 II.1. For Temperatures The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Bogo, Yagoua, Maga, Maroua, Kaele, Mora and Waza in the Far North region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region; - Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Moloundou, Ngoila and Lomie in the East region; - Lolodorf, Campo, Zoetele, Sangmelima and Djoum in the South region; - Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafang and Bangangte in the West region; - Eyumojock, Mamfe, Muyuka, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba in the South West region; - Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. NB: 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. 2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, and above 32°C in the Centre and South regions. The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Yaounde in the Centre region; - Lolodorf, Zoetele, Sangmelima and Akom II in the South region; - Mindourou in the East region; - Mbouda, Dschang and Bafang in the West region; - Fontem and Kumba in the South West region. NB:The current dekad shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures in the Extreme North, North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region, Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region; Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. These could also lead to cold waves. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences of up to 10°C in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region, Banyo in the Adamawa region, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region. II.2. For Precipitations Periodic and low intensity rainfall could be observed in the localities of Eseka and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; Ngoila and Ngoila and Moloundou in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region; Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; Loum et Mouanko in the Littoral region. ONACC| 1 II.3. For visibility and air quality We expect increased morning fog and haze, with a high risk of traffic accidents for road users, in the localities of Eseka Monatele, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Mbitom, Ngoila, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Mouloundou and Lomie in the East region; Kribi, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong and Benakuma in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutenguene and Idenau in the South West region. III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 29th February, 2020 1) For precipitations NB : We expect: This period is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which causes a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country and by the - A high probability of recording no rainfall in installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the the North and Far North regions; country. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone - A high probability of recording no rainfall in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - A high probability of sporadic and low intensity rainfall in the localities of Eseka and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; Ngoila and Mouloundou in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - A probability of recording no rainfall in the localities of the North West region; - a high probability of recording no rainfall in the West region. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone - Sporadic and low intensity rains in the localities of Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region; Loum, Edea and Mouanko in the Littoral region. 2) For visibility and air quality A persistence of morning fog and mist, already observed in the last dekad is expected in the Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall for the current dekad compared to that of the previous th th localities of Eseka, Yaounde and Akonolinga in dekad from February 11 to 20 , 2020 Source : ONACC, February 2020 the Centre region; Lomie, Ngoila, Mindourou andLimbe Mouloundou in the East region; Kribi and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, NB: Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou 1) This dekad from 21st to 29th February, 2020 corresponds to the extension of in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), in Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Santa, the Guinea high savannah zone (Adamawa region), the high plateau zone (West Bamenda, Wum, Kumbo, Fundong, Benakuma and North West regions), Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South and Bambalang in the North West region; West regions). 2) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions) this Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, period corresponds to an extension of the long dry season. Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutengene and Idenau in the South West region. ONACC| 2 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical average of maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 36.26°C in the Far North region, 38°C in the North region, 35°C in the Adamawa region, 29°C in the Centre, 29.62°C in the South region, 30.36 in the East regions, 27.44°C in West, 29.5 in the North West, 29.8°C in the South West region, 28.5°C in the In the Littoral region, there is a high probability of recording; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from to 2018 in Kousseri; below the historical average in Mokolo and Mindif and above 1979 to 2018 at Campo, Lolodorf, Zoatele Sangmelima and Djoum and around the historical average in Bogo, Yagoua, Maga, Maroua, Kaele, Mora and Waza in the historical average in Akom II, Kribi and Ebolowa