OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR Dekadal Bulletin from 1st to 10th February, 2020 LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES Bulletin no 34 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

DIRECTION GENERALE - DIRECTORATE GENERAL ONACC ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; email: [email protected]; Tel (237) 693 370 504 CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 1st to 10th FEBRUARY, 2020

Supervision NB: It should be noted that this forecast is developed Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change using spatial data from: (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, . - the International Institute for Climate and Society Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (IRI) of Columbia University, USA; (ONACC). - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ProductionTeam (ONACC) Administration (NOAA), USA; Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, ONACC and Lecturer in the - AccuWeather (American Institution specialized in Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. meteorological forecasts), USA; Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, ONACC. - the African Centre for Applied Meteorology for BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, Technical staff, ONACC. Development (ACMAD). ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. - Spatial data, from 1979 to 2018 relative to Ocean NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. Surface Temperature (OST)in the Atlantic and MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography. Pacific, as well as the intensity of the El-Niño/La ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC Nina episodes in the Pacific, precipitation and ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. temperatures from local stations.

- ONACC’s research works.

I. INTRODUCTION

This ten-day alert bulletin n°34 reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018 and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones for the period February 1 to 10, 2020. It also highlights the potential risks, threats and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. It also assesses forecasts made for the ten-day period from 21st to 30th January, 2020. This current dekad is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country and by the installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the country. Morning fogs will also be observed during this period throughout the national territory.

II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 1st to 10th FEBRUARY, 2020

II.1. For Temperatures The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Yagoua in the Far North region; - Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, in the Centre region; - Belabo, , , , Abong-Mbang, , and Lomie, in the ; - Zoetele, Sangmelima, Djoum, Kribi and Campo in the South region; - Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bangangte, and Dschang in the West region; - Eyumojock, Mamfe, , Bamusso, , Fontem and in the South West region; - Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. NB: 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. 2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, and in the Centre and South regions. The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Mokolo, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele and Yagoua in the Far North region; - Guider, Dembo, Pitoa, Garoua, Lagdo, Poli, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; - Tignere, Ngaoundere, Banyo, Meiganga and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Garoua Boulai, Betare oya, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region; - Mbounda, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region; - Bamenda, Wum, Bali, Kumbo and Fundong in the North West region. NB:The current dekad shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures in the Extreme North, North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region, Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region; Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. These could also lead to cold waves. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences of up to 10°C in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region, Banyo in the Adamawa region, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region.

ONACC| 1

II.2. For Precipitations Periodic and low intensity rainfall could be observed in the localities of , Bamusso, Idenau, Mundemba, Fontem, Kumba, Mutengene, and Limbe in the South West region; Campo, Kribi and Ebolowa, Akom II, Sangmelima, Djoum and Lolodorf in the South region; Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region; Ngoila, Lomie, Mindourou ans Mouloundou in the East region, II.3. For visibility and air quality We expect increased morning fog and haze, with a high risk of traffic accidents for road users, in the localities of Eseka Monatele, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Mbitom, Ngoila, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Mouloundou and Lomie in the East region; Kribi, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong and Benakuma in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutenguene and Idenau in the South West region. III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period st th from 1 to 10 February, 2020 1) For precipitations NB : We expect: This period is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone which causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout - A high probability of registering no rainfall in the North the country and by the installation of the Inter Tropical Front and Far North regions; (ITF) below the southern part of the country. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone - A high probability of registering no rainfall in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - A high probability of sporadic and low intensity rainfall in the localities of Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Obala and Ngoro in the Centre region; Ngoila in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - A probability of registering no rainfall in the localities of the North West region; - a high probability of recording sporadic and low intensity rains in the localities of Dschang, Bafang, Bangangte and Bazou in the West region. e) In the monomodal rainfall forest zone - Sporadic and low intensity rains in the localities of Tiko, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem, Kumba, Idenau, Mutengene, Buea and Limbe in the South West region; Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokoti, Edea, Mouako, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region.

2) For visibility and air quality Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall for the current dekad compared to that of the previous dekad from February 1 to 10, 2020 A persistence of morning fog and mist, already observed in the last dekad is expected in the localities of Eseka, Source : ONACC, January 2020 YaoundeLimbe and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Lomie, NB: Ngoila, Mindourou, and Mouloundou in the East region; 1) This dekad from 1st to 10th February, 2020 corresponds to the Kribi and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, and North regions), in the Guinea high savannah zone (Adamawa Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region; region), the high plateau zone (West and North West regions), Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Monomodal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). 2) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East Santa, Bamenda, Wum, Kumbo, Fundong, Benakuma and regions) this period corresponds to an extension of the long dry Bambalang in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, season. Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutengene and Idenau in the South West region.

ONACC| 2

2) For Temperatures

a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical average of maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 35°C in the Far North region, 36°C in the North region, 32°C in the Adamawa region, 30°C in the Centre, South and East regions, 29°C in West and North West regions; 29.9°C in the South West region, 29.8°C in the In the Littoral region, there is a high probability of recording; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from to 2018 in Bogo and Maga; below the historical average in Kaele, Mora, Maroua 1979 to 2018 at Zoetele Sangmelima, Akom II, Lolodorf, Djoum, Kribi and and Mindi and above the historical average recorded in Yagoua in the Far North Ebolowa; and above the average in Campo in the South region; region; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 1979 to 2018 in Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo and Bali in the North West region ; to 2018 at Dembo and Guider and around the average historical data in Touboro, - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; 1979 to 2018 in Foumban, Foumbot and Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bangangte - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 and Dschang in the West region ; to 2018 in Tibati, Tignere and Ngaoundere; around the historical average at - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from Mbakaou and Meiganga and higher than the historical average in Banyo in the 1979 to 2018 in Tiko, Buea, Limbe and above the historical average in Adamawa region; Eyumojock, Mamfe, Kumba, Muyuka, , Bamusso, Mundemba and Fontem in the - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 South West region; to 2018 in Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, in the Centre region; 1979 to 2018 in Mouanko, Melong Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo, in the Littoral region. to 2018 in Mouloundou; around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 NB: We note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by in Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri and Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Ngoila temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national and Lomie in the East region; territory, and particularly in the Far North, North, Centre, South and East region.

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (b) and expected anomalies for the current dekad. (Source: ONACC, January 2020) ONACC| 3

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January, 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 1st to 10th February 2020, there is a high probability of registering: - mean maximum temperatures lower than those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Maroua and Mora; around the average recorded during the last dekad in Mindif and Kaele and above the average in Kousseri, Waza, Bogo and Yagoua in the Far North region; - mean maximum temperatures lower than those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Touboro and Poli; and around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Tchollire, Dembo and Lagdo and higher than the mean in Garoua Guider and Rey Bouba, in the North region; - mean maximum temperatures above those recorded in the last dekad in Tibati; below those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Tignere, Ngaoundere, Meiganga and Banyo; and around the mean recorded in the last dekad in Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - mean maximum temperatures above those recorded in the last dekad in Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma and Mouloundou; below the average recorded from January 21st to 30th, 2020 in Betare Oya; and around the mean registered in the last dekad in Ngoila, Lomie Mindourou and Abong-Mbang, in the East region; - average maximum temperatures higher than those recorded from 21st to 30th January 2020 in Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Nkoteng, Eseka, Obala, Monatele, Bafia, Ngoro, Yoko and Nanga Eboko, in the Centre region; - average maximum temperatures higher than those recorded from 21st to 30th January 2020 in Zoetele; lower than the last dekad recorded in Lolodorf, Kribi, Sangmelima, Akom II and Campo and around the mean recorded during the last dekad in Ebolowa, and Djoum, in the South region; - mean maximum temperatures higher than those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Fontem, Limbe, Buea, Idenau, Mundemba, Kumba, Muyuka, Tiko; lower than that recorded in the last dekad in Eyumojock and Mamfe and Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures forecast for current dekad compared to the dekad from 11th to 20th January 2020. around the mean recorded during the last dekad in Mundemba in the South West Source: ONACC, January 2020 region; - average maximum temperatures higher than those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo, in the Littoral region. - mean maximum temperatures below those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Wum, Kumbo, Bali, Santa and Bamenda in the North West region; - mean maximum temperatures above those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam and Tonga, in the West region. ONACC| 4

Alerts for maximum temperatures

st th During this dekad from 1 to 10 February 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historic means. These include:

- Yagoua in the Far North region; - Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region; - Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Abong Mbang, Mindourou, Ngoila, Lomie and Yokadouma in the East region;

- Zoetele, Sangmelima, Djoum, KKribi and Campo in the South region; - Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang and Tonga in the West region; - Eyumojock, Mamfe, Muyuka, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba in the South West region; - Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo, in the Littoral region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 17.5°C in the Far North region, 16.9°C in the Adamawa region, 19.5°C in the North region, 19.7°C in the East region, 16.6°C in the West and North West regions; 19.5°C in the Centre region, 20.9°C in the South region, 21.4°C in the South West region, 21°C in the Littoral region, there is a high probability registering:

- average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from Yaounde; and above the historical average in Yoko, Obala and Bafia in the 1979 to 2018 in Kaele, Waza, Mora and Maroua; around the historical average Centre Region; in Mindif, Bogo, Kousseri, Maga and Yagoua, in the Far North region; - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tonga; around the historical average Foumban, Bamendjing, 1979 to 2018 in Poli, Rey Bouba, Mandingrin, Tchollire and Lagdo; average Bafoussam, Dschang, Bangangte and Bazou in the West Region; minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 2018 in Dembo, Touboro and Pitoa in the North region; 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Fundong, Kumbo Benakuma, Wum and Bamenda, in - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from the North-West Region; 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere, Mbakaou, Meiganga and Tignere; and around the - minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to historical average in Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa region; 2018 in Eyumojock; around the average in Mamfe and below the historic - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from average in Mundemba, Idenau Tiko, Kumba, Bamusso, Mamfe and Muyuka, 1979 to 2018 in Betare Oya, Yokadouma and Garoua Boulai; Lomie, Abong- in the South West region. Mbang, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua and Mindourou and around the historical - -minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 average in in the East Region; to 2018 in Douala, Dizangue, Edea, Mouanko, Manjo, Melong, - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from Nkongsamba, and Penja and above the historic average in Mbanga and 1979 to 2018 in Lolodorf and Akom II Campo and Kribi; around the historical Yabassi in the Littoral region. average in Sangmelima, and Zoetele and Ebolowa and above in Djoum in the South region; - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngoro, Monatele and Eseka, Mbalmayo Nkoteng and

ONACC| 5

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period (b) and expected st th anomalies for the period from 1 to 10 February, 2020. (c) Source: ONACC, January 2020

ONACC| 6

NB: There is a high risk of an increase in cold nights in the localities of Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures st th Kaele in the Far North region; Guider, Garoua, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 January, 2020 and the average minimum temperatures expected for the dekad from 1st to 10th February, the North region; Tibati, Tignere and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa region; 2020, there is a high probability of registering: Yoko in the Centre region. st th - average minimum temperatures lower than those recorded from 21 to 30 January, 2020 in Kaele, Maroua, , and around the mean in Maga, Mora, Mokolo, Waza Yagoua, Mindif, Kousseri and Bogo in the Far North region; - average minimum temperatures lower than those recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Garoua, Guider, Rey Bouba, Tchollirie and around the average in Lagdo, Poli and Dembo in the North region ; - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from January 21st to 30th, 2020 in Tibati, Tignere and Mbakaou, and around the average recorded from January 21st to 30th, 2020 in Banyo, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region ; - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Yoko; around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2020 in Ngoro, Monatele, Nkoteng, Obala, Akonolinga, Yaounde and Mbalmayo, in the Centre region; - average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Lomie, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Ngoila, Belabo, Betare Oya, Garoua Boulai, Bertoua, Abong Mbang and Moloundou in the East region; - average minimum temperatures above the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2020 in Sangmelima; around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Akom II, Campo, Zoetele, Djoum and Kribi and around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Djoum and Zoetele in the South region; - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Mouanko, Penja, Loum, Douala, Manjo and Edea in the Littoral region; - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th Figure 5: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad compared to the st th January 2020 in Tonga, Bafoussam, Dschang, Mbouda, Bamending and dekad from 21 to 30 January, 2020. st th Source: ONACC, January 2020 Bazou and around the average recorded from 21 to 30 January 2020 in Foumban and Foumbot in the West region; - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th January, 2020 in Eyumojock, Buea, Limbe, Kumba, Mamfe, Tiko, Bamusso, Muyuka, Mundemba and Idenau in the South-West Region; - mean minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2020 in Bali and Wum; below the average recorded during the same period in Benakuma, Fundong, Kumbo and Bamenda in the North West Region.

ONACC| 7

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th February, 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that are very likely to experience a decrease in average minimum temperatures. These localities include; - Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Mokolo, Maga, Bogo, Maroua, Mindif, Kaele and Yagoua in the Far North region;

- Guider, Dembo, Pitoa, Garoua, Lagdo, Poli Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; - Tignère, Ngaoundere, Banyo, Meiganga and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa region;

- Garoua Boulai, Betare oya, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region; - Mbouda, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region; - Bamenda, Wum, Bali, Kumbo and Fundong in the North West region.

ONACC| 8

IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the tourism sector: - An increase in bush fires as a result of high temperatures, leading to - high risk of recording many cases of animal migration, due to water the destruction of plantations (cocoa, coffee, banana, food crops, etc.), in shortages in tourist sites in the Far North, North, Adamawa, Centre, South the Centre, South and East, North West, South West and Littoral and East regions. Regions. e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: - Increased evapotranspiration as a result of high temperatures, which - A risk of the occurrence of thick fog, especially in the early morning for exposes market gardening and lowland crops to water stress in some localities and in the afternoon for others, in localities located on the Cameroon's five agro-ecological zones; outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides of cities such as Yaounde, Ebolowa - Increased insect pest attacks on cereals in the Extreme North, North and Bertoua in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone; Bamenda, Santa, Menka, and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Kumbo, Bali, Fundong and Wum in the b) In the health sector: Highlands zone; Fontem, Mamfe, Buea, Limbe, Kumba, Tiko, Idenau and A risk of recording cases of: Mutenguene, Loum, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Souza, Edea and Nkongsamba,in

- Diarrhea, following the scarcity and poor quality of drinking water in the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone, with a high risk of traffic accidents;

the five Agro-ecological zones; - A risk of recording many cases of:

- meningococcal meningitis following the severe drought that is - bush fires in various localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa,

affecting some localities in the five Agro-ecological zones; Centre, South, North West, West, Soth West and East regions; - Conjuncti vitis due to the effects of a combination of heat and dusty - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to their migration out of winds in various localities in the five Agro-ecological zones; reserves in search of water and food in the Far North, North, Adamawa, - Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in the Centre, South and East regions;

Far North, North, Adamawa, North West, and West regions, due to an - conflicts between farmers and certain wildlife species in the Far North,

increasing presence of dust in the air and the cold nights during this North, North and the Adamawa regions;

period; - degradation of biological diversity as a result of severe drought in the - General pathology with systematic disorders in children, people living five agro-ecological zones. suffering from diabetes, obesity or any pathology requiring medication - A high risk of registering more cases of migration of some wildlife species out acting on thermoregulation in the five Agro-ecological zones; of the parks in search of food and water in the five agro ecological zones. - Syncope and psychological stress in schools, following the torrid heat, f) In the livestock sector:

especially among asthmatic subjects in the five Agro-ecological zones. - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to the cold weather in some

c) In the water and energy sector: localities in the Far North, North and Adamawa, West, East, North West and

- A risk drying up of water supply points as a result of the decrease in South west regions; the water level of the groundwater table in the Far North, North and - scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, North, Adamawa regions. Adamawa, Centre and North West regions - a high risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, and water - migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and grazing land

catchment and treatment sites. in the Far North, North and Adamawa, North West, West, East and Centre

regions;

- increase in conflicts between herders and farmers over water points, plains and lowlands in the Far North, North and Adamawa, North West, West and Centre, West, South and South West regions.

ONACC| 9

VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 21st to 30th January, 2020 Agro Ecological Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Soudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau zones Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 16,2 18 17.3 19.2 19 20.9 15.9 15.7 21,1 21.1

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success 100 88.88 100 81.81 90.90 75 60 100 90 70 rate (%) Maximum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 32.72 33.95 32.36 30.74 30 30.25 29.33 30.16 29.77 29.43

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success 55 88.88 60 100 62.5 100 66,67 100 50 100 rate (%) Precipitations

Historic mean (mm) 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-13 0-22 5-50 0-13 0-4 0-34 5-34

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 rate (%)

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

ONACC| 10

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - make nurseries for market gardening and caral fields (for off-season millet) under shade; - transplant off-season crops; - make nurseries under the hedges; - set up drip irrigation systems to irrigate plantations and nurseries in need of water in the five Agro-ecological zones; - promote drought-resistant crops and off-season crops in the Far North, North and northern parts of the Adamawa, North West, West, Centre, South and East regions; - promote the practice of integrated pest management to control pests of cereals and other crops. b) In the health sector - promote meningitis vaccination campaigns; - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, etc.); - sensitize populations to drink a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol within this period; - encourage population to consume lots of fresh vegetables and meals rich in proteins in the Far North and northern parts of the Adamawa regions; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gear for protection from the cold nights during this period; - stay under shelters or in the house (especially between noon and 3p.m. when it is extremely hot); - take a cold bath before bedtime; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets. c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases; - raise awareness to promote fodder cultivation for livestock feed and distribution of fodder crops in preparation for the dry season. d) In the water and energy sector - sensitize the administrations concerned to take into account the climate forecasts developed by ONACC in the planning of water resource management in dams and water catchment sites. (e) In the sector of the environment and biodiversity - raise awareness among populations of the risks of conflicts with wildlife species in search of food and water; - raise awareness of the risks of bushfires and their impacts on climate change as a prelude to the upcoming dry season.

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm ONACC| 11