Stabilizing the Agricultural Frontier: Leveraging REDD with Biofuels for Sustainable Development

Timothy J. Killeen, G. Schroth, W. Turner, C. A. Harvey, M. K. Steininger, C. Dragisic & R. A. Mittermeier.

Science and Knowledge (CABS) Center for Environmental Leadership in Business (CELB) Conservation International

IEA Bioenergy Task 38: Biomass and Bioenergy 2011 Avaiable on-line Explicitly link the cultivation of biofuel feedstocks with forest conservation and reforestation

REDD + Biofuels • Ratio of 4:1 -- forest conservation : biofuel cultivation • Agricultural frontier (deforested 2000 – 2010) RDL + Biofuels (RDL = Reforestation of Degraded landscapes) • Ratio of 1:9 – reforestation : biofuel cultivation • Landscapes deforested prior to 2000 • Degraded soils, second growth forest Restrict carbon credits to woody perennial biofuel species • Oil palm, jatropha, eucalyptus

Use revenues from carbon markets to subsidize sustainable biofuels

Biofuels + Forest Carbon Policy Proposal Conceptualize the model Spaitalize Policy Model for 5 Case Studies Identify appropriate landscapes Oil Palm: Precipitation > 2000 mm Eucalyptus: Precipitation < 2000 mm

50% of anthropogenic landscape Oil palm : 7.8 million ha Eucalyptus: 3.9 million ha

Stratify by eligibility REDD + Biofuels = 6.3 million hectares (~10 years of deforestation) RDL+ Biofuels = 5.5 million hectares

Pará- Brazil, Case Study Forest Conserved 25 million hectares 29% of extant forest in Pará - Brazil Landscape Reforested 556,000 hectares Carbon Credits REDD = 9.2 billion tons CO2 RDL = 168 million tons CO2 Woody biofuels = 1.2 billion tons CO2 Biofuels Produced Annually 23 billion liters ethanol 18 million tons biodiesel 24% Brazilian oil consumption (2005) 2.9 % USA oil consumption $17 billion yr-1 (100% GDP 2005)

Pará – Brazil Case Study Carbon Credits Forest Cover RDL Forest 10,000 RDL 1,000,000 REDD REDD Forest 9,000 900,000 Plantations Other Forest 8,000 800,000 7,000 700,000 6,000 600,000 5,000 500,000

Km 2 4,000

400,000 Mg (E6) CO2 3,000 300,000 2,000 200,000

100,000 1,000

0 - Pará East Madagascar Colombia Liberia Pará East Madagascar Colombia Liberia Kalimantan Kalimantan

1E+6 Ethanol Anthrop. Cover Biofuel Plantations 1,600 900E+3 Biofuel Produced Other anthropic Biodiesel 800E+3 1,400

700E+3 1,200

600E+3 1,000 500E+3 km2 800 400E+3 600

300E+3 Giga Joules (GJ) Giga Joules 400 200E+3

100E+3 200

000E+0 0 Pará East Madagascar Colombia Liberia Pará East Madagascar Colombia Liberia Kalimantan Kalimantan

Potential Benefits 10,000 RDL 10,000 REDDRDL 9,000 REDD 9,000 Plantations 8,000 Plantations 8,000 7,000

7,000 6,000

6,000 5,000

5,000

Mg (E6) CO2 4,000

Mg (E6) CO2 4,000 3,000

3,000 2,000

2,000 1,000

1,000 - Pará East Kalimantan Madagascar Colombia Liberia - Pará East Kalimantan Madagascar Colombia Liberia 1E+6 Ethanol Biofuel Plantations 1,600 1E+6 Ethanol 900E+3 OtherBiofuel anthropic Plantations 1,600 Biodiesel 900E+3 800E+3 Other anthropic 1,400 Biodiesel 800E+3 1,400 700E+3 1,200 700E+3 600E+3 1,200 1,000 600E+3

500E+3 1,000 km2 500E+3 800

400E+3km2 800 400E+3

300E+3 JoulesGiga (GJ) 600

300E+3 JoulesGiga (GJ) 600 200E+3 400 200E+3 100E+3 400 100E+3 200 000E+0 200 000E+0 Pará East Madagascar Colombia Liberia Kalimantan 0 Pará East Madagascar Colombia Liberia Pará East Kalimantan Madagascar Colombia Liberia Kalimantan 0 Pará East Kalimantan Madagascar Colombia Liberia Impact on Land Cover

Counter Factual Policy Scenarios 20,000 Carbon Emissions & Sequestration

15,000

10,000

5,000

- Mg (E6) CO2 (E6) Mg Deforestation (5,000) RDL REDD (10,000) Biofuel Plantations

(15,000)

Counter Factual Policy Scenarios Biofuel production

Counter Factual Policy Scenarios Reduce carbon emissions, conserve biodiversity, and promote economic growth in developing countries

Scenario win-win-win