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Union Properties EGYPTUAE Real Estate Sector Union Properties EGYPTUAE Real Estate Sector Initiation of Coverage March 28, 2007 Capitalizing on a Strong Development Portfolio • Union Properties serves as one of the most prominent private sector players in STRONG BUY the real estate industry in Dubai. Traditionally focusing on rental properties, the company entered the sales market with the launch of the Green Commu- Target Price AED4.45 nity development in 2003. The company currently has an exciting develop- ment portfolio that is expected to add ca. AED11 billion to the company’s top Recent Price AED3.13 line between 2007 and 2010. Upside Potential 42% • Union Properties’ ongoing projects can be classified into three categories, namely the villa-focused Green Community West, DIFC-based projects and the Investment Grade Growth MotorCity development. The latter ‘destination development’ is focused around automobiles and racing and is divided into three components, namely Previous Target Price N/A residential developments, the Business Park and motor sports related facilities. The residential developments within MotorCity consist of the villa-based Green Share Data Community MotorCity and the UPTOWN MotorCity development featuring low- rise apartments. The company’s property portfolio thus lays strong emphasis Exchange Rate UAE AED3.67/1US$ on villa-focused and DIFC-based developments, with four of the five residen- Reuters Code UPRO.DU tial developments belonging to these segments. This composition stems from Most Recent Shares (mn) 2,226 the management’s view that the high-rise luxury apartment segment in Dubai is headed for saturation and that the DIFC district benefits from demand and Par Value/share AED 1 supply dynamics distinct from those characterizing the residential market in Financial Year Ending December the rest of Dubai. Mkt. Cap (AED million) 6,967 • The company has also pursued a strategy of forward and backward vertical integration to control its cost structure and to add value to its developments. Free Float 51.1% Mechanical, Engineering and Plumbing contractor Thermo serves as the most notable subsidiary in this regard, accounting for an average of ca. 69% of the 52 Wk. Low – High (AED) 2.83-5.03 cumulative revenues earned by Union Properties in the 2002-2006 period. • In accordance with international accounting rules, Union Properties utilizes the complete contract method to report revenues, as a result of which proceeds Shareholders from the sale of its projects are reported upon the handover of associated Emirates Bank 48.9% developments in 2009 and 2010. Resultantly, we expect the net income for FY07 to remain inline with that witnessed in FY06, with revenues from Thermo Free Float (Estimate) 51.1% expected to continue to form the bulk Union Properties’ top line in 2007 and 2008. Recognition of revenues in 2009 from sale of the ongoing develop- ments, on the other hand, is expected to significantly boost the company’s top Stock Performance (AED) line and bottom line by ca. 332% and ca. 297% over corresponding figures for 2008 to AED10.6 billion and AED1.87 billion respectively. • We have concluded a DCF value for Union Properties of AED4.45/share. With 5.00 the company currently trading at AED3.13/share, this affords investors 42% upside potential. We accordingly initiate coverage with a Strong Buy recom- mendation. 4.00 FY Ending December 2005a 2006e 2007f 2008f 2009f Revenues (AED mn) 1,388 2,525 2,769 2,467 10,648 Growth 143.6% 81.9% 9.7% -10.9% 331.7% 3.00 EBITDA margin 18.9% 14.9% 21.0% 11.1% 17.3% Net Income (AED mn) 585 614 615 472 1,874 EPS (AED) 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.21 0.84 2.00 EPS Growth 293.9% 5.0% 0.1% -23.2% 296.9% Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 DPS (AED) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BVPS (AED) 1.75 2.05 2.32 2.54 3.38 Prime Group Research Department P/E x 11.92 11.35 11.33 14.76 3.72 Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% [email protected] P/BV x 1.79 1.53 1.35 1.23 0.93 Tel +971-2-6910800 EV/Sales x 4.71 3.29 3.31 4.14 0.64 Fax +971-2-6670907 EV/EBITDA x 21.59 22.01 15.78 37.22 3.70 PRIME EGYPT SALES TEAM PRIME UAE SALES TEAM Yasmine Guindy +202-300-5611 [email protected] Chahir Hosni +971-2-6910707 [email protected] Mohamed Fouad +202-300-5615 [email protected] Ahmad Hamdy +971-2-6910701 [email protected] Tarek Khayyat +202-300-5613 [email protected] Union Properties UAE OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS Evolving with the Real Estate Sector A part of the Emirates Banking Group, Union Properties serves as one of the most prominent private sector players in the real estate industry in Dubai. Originally setup as a division of Emirates Bank, Un- Established in 1987 ion Properties was established as a separate company in 1987 and was eventually floated as a public company in 1993. With a ca. 49% stake, the bank continues to act as the single largest shareholder of the property developer. In line with the trend witnessed in the sector, Union Properties has witnessed tremendous growth over the years, with its net asset base increasing from AED1 million in 1987 to AED4.56 billion in 2006. The Current development company has traditionally focused on the development of properties for rent, with income from this portfolio expected to add portfolio accounting for ca. 45% of the cumulative gross profit earned by Union Properties during the AED11 billion to the com- 2002-2006 period. However, the makeup of the revenue stream is set to change dramatically in the pany’s top line between coming years with the company’s current development portfolio expected to add ca. AED11 billion to 2007 and 2010 the top line between 2007 and 2010, accounting for ca. 47% of cumulative revenues and ca. 63% of the gross profit expected to be earned during the said period. The company has also pursued a strategy of forward and backward vertical integration to control its cost structure and to add value to its developments. The acquisition of a majority stake in mechanical, Forward and backward electrical and plumbing contracting company Thermo L.L.C. in 1996 acts as the most prominent exam- integration pursued to ple of the former. Wholly owned by Union Properties now, Thermo has also served as the largest con- control costs and add tributor to the property developer’s top line, constituting an average of ca. 69% of the cumulative value revenues earned by Union Properties in the 2002-2006 period. Notable examples of forward integra- tion, on the other hand, include establishment of an interior design and fitout branch (The Fitout), and a health and fitness services company titled Nautilus. Given that Union Properties’ ongoing projects are expected to generate healthy cash flows for the company over the coming years, we expect the com- pany to continue value addition and diversification through further vertical integration. Strong Emphasis on Villa-focused and DIFC-based Developments The composition of Union Properties’ current development portfolio is dictated by its management’s Management expects the view that the high-rise luxury apartment segment in Dubai is headed for saturation. Moreover, the high-rise luxury apartment management feels that the DIFC district benefits from demand and supply dynamics distinct from segment in Dubai is those characterizing the residential market in the rest of Dubai. This assertion is based on the fact that headed for saturation increasing acceptance of DIFC as a regional base by international players has made it one of the most sought after destinations in the Emirate. Resultantly, the only high-rise luxury apartment offerings by the company are located in the in the financial district. Furthermore, out of the total projected reve- nues of ca. AED11 billion from ongoing developments, ca. 48% are expected to be generated from the sale of a villa-focused development (Green Community MotorCity) and two DIFC-based projects (Index Tower and Limestone House). It would be pertinent to mention here that UPTOWN MotorCity, the only apartments focused develop- ment in the company’s current portfolio, is designed as a community of low-rise apartments. This is expected to differentiate it from the majority of other ongoing developments in Dubai. Branding Our discussion with the management indicates that Union Properties is pursuing a strategy of branding Branding expected to help its developments. For example, the company has launched three projects under the ‘Green Community’ reduce costs and establish brand to date, with all three developments designed as villa-focused communities. Two key benefits positive expectations on expected to be generated from this policy are (1) a reduction in cost in the planning/design phase of part of buyers subsequent projects and (2) establishment of positive expectations on the part of buyer to facilitate the sales process. The Green Community West development serves as a good example in this regard, with the success of the adjacent Green Community aiding the company in achieving a rapid sale of the project, despite its location some distance away from the city center. Moreover, our discussion with the management indicates that feedback from the original Green Community allowed Union Properties to improve on the design of the residential units in Green Community West. The addition of bungalows in the latter development serves as a notable example in this regard. Branding also expected to The branding of its developments is likely to aid Union Properties in expanding its portfolio, both within help in expansion within and outside the UAE.
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