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Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai 2020 #Realestatepredictions Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020

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Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai 2020 #Realestatepredictions Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai 2020 #RealEstatePredictions Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Contents Executive summary 3 Hospitality market Dubai’s hospitality market 5 Product differentiation is key to managing changing customer demand 8 Residential market Dubai’s residential market 10 Alternative residential assets 12 Office market Dubai’s office market 15 Workspace strategy for the future is centered on agility 17 Retail market Dubai’s retail market 20 Dubai’s changing Food & Beverage landscape 22 Industrial and logistics market Dubai’s industrial and logistics market 24 Consumer expectations, technology and data are driving the logistics sector evolution 25 Key contacts 27 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Executive summary Hospitality Dubai is expected to retain its position Average daily rates (ADRs) continue to as one of the most attractive tourism experience downward pressure as a result destinations in the world, in terms of the of increasing supply and minimal demand total number of international overnight growth. visitors and visitor spend. Residential Increasing supply continues to impact Average sales prices for residential property the residential sector performance. The across Dubai declined by approximately 7% formation of the Higher Committee for between Q3 2018 and Q3 2019. Average rents Real Estate in September 2019 is aimed have also declined by approximately 9% over at mitigating the imbalance in supply and the same period. demand through ‘a strategy to add value to real estate projects’. Offices The current pipeline for office space is Consolidation and workplace optimisation expected to place further pressure on continue to drive occupier demand, though performance. The majority of upcoming the pace of rental decline has slowed from 4% stock is categorized as Grade A properties in 2018 to 2% in 2019. and this segment is expected to be impacted most in the short to medium term. Retail Chinese tourists have been the fastest The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) growing nationality in terms of source estimates that the total UAE retail sales markets for Dubai retail malls in 2019, volume will grow by approximately 0.4% more than doubling in number since 2016. whilst pressure continued on retail rents. Industrial and logistics The primary source of demand continues Oversupply in select locations and a limited to be from manufacturing and technology number of new occupiers were among the companies, although logistics and third- key factors for the slow activity in 2019. party logistics (3PL) firms are expected to be an increasing source of demand in the future. 3 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Hospitality market 4 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Dubai’s hospitality market ADRs continue to experience International overnight visitors, global top five destinations, 2019 downward pressure as a result of increasing supply and minimal 22.78 19.1 19.09 15.93 14.67 demand growth. Review of 2019 performance Dubai retains its position as one of the most attractive tourism destinations in the world in terms of the total number of international overnight visitors. According to MasterCard, Visitors millions) Dubai also kept its position at the top of the Global Destination Cities Index in terms of visitor spending for the Bangok Lonon Paris Dubai Sinapore fourth consecutive year. Source astercar loba estination Cities ndex Both international overnight visitor numbers and visitor spend declined by 4% in comparison to 2018. International overnight visitor spending, global top five This decline is reflective of the performance of Dubai’s destinations, 2019 hospitality market in 2019, which continues to experience challenges as new supply is added. Revenue per available 30.82 20.09 20.03 16.56 16.47 room (RevPAR) decreased by 13% between 2018 and 2019 year on year (YOY) January to August. However, occupancy levels increased by 3% during this period, indicating greater competition among operators leading to lower ADRs. The Luxury, Upscale and Midscale sectors experienced a decline in occupancy of between -1% and -4% between Q3 Visito spen US$bn) 2018 and Q3 2019, largely due to the increase in supply in these sectors. Over the same period, there was a marginal Dubai Makkah Bangok Sinapore Lonon increase in occupancy in the Upper Upscale and Upper midscale sectors. Source astercar loba estination Cities ndex 5 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Dubai hotel performance percentage change, January to September 2018 vs January to September 2019 10% 10% 5% ) (% 0% e g 1% n a h -5% C -10% 13% 15% -15% Rooms available Occupancy ADR RevPAR oe o Dubai hotel market performance, Year to Date (YTD) Q3 2019 1,200 78% 1,034 77% 77% 1,000 76% ) ED) 800 A 746 (% ( 74% y R 74% c A n P a 600 v p e 506 u R / 72% cc R 387 400 O D 312 A 226 224 196 70% 200 70% 70% 179 156 68% Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class ADR YTD Q3 2019 RevPAR YTD Q3 2019 Occupancy YTD Q3 2019 oe o Dubai hotel occupancy, YTD Q3 2019 Classification Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale 2018 YTD Q3 73% 73% 74% 74% 78% Occupancy Trend 2019 YTD Q3 70% 74% 70% 77% 77% Occupancy Source: STR Global Note: % refers to average YTD hotel occupancy across all properties surveyed by STR Global in each submarket 6 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Dubai ADR and occupancy vs. regional markets, January to September 2019 300 279 80% 74% 73% 71% 70% 250 64% 61% 61% 60% 59% ) 57% 55% 55% ) 200 (% 53% 52% $ 50% 167 y S 158 156 c U 149 n ( 142 150 131 40% a R p u D 111 A 103 102 30% cc 100 73 72 O 20% 50 10% 0% Dubai et e Riyadh n st n Csn Co o Cente e e ADR (US$) Occupancy (%) oe Dubai ADR and occupancy vs. international markets, January to September 2019 300 243 100% 247 250 86% 85% 83% 82% 81% 81% 80% 80% 77% 76% 75% 73% 73% ) 193 ) (% 200 183 66% $ 177 174 169 y S 60% c U 150 n ( 142 150 131 a R 119 p u D 111 40% A 91 cc 100 O 20% 50 0% oo en s Dubai oe onon ne en Madrid e o on on os nees enos es ADR (US$) Occupancy (%) oe 7 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Product differentiation is key to managing changing customer demand As key performance metrics are under pressure, it is essential for hotel owners and operators to understand how to differentiate their offering and manage revenue. There are two trends that both owners and operators must Digital transformation embrace in order to maintain profitability in a rapidly evolving From online chatbots to virtual assistants like Alexa and Siri, and an increasingly competitive hospitality market. Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to be leveraged in new products and service delivery techniques that are transforming Private rentals the hospitality sector. Private rentals, or holiday homes, have increased in supply and in popularity in local and global markets. The increase in lower-cost There is an increasing number of technology focused firms supply has been matched with a significant increase in the mid- changing the way people travel. OYO, which is a hybrid between market hotel segment in recent years. In the Middle East, regional an online travel agency (OTA) and operator, has recently created operators have introduced mid-range hotel brands to their a shift in the operator dynamic. OYO uses dynamic pricing existing portfolios including Rove by Emaar and Zabeel House by which makes over 60 million pricing changes every day and has Jumeirah, whilst international brands such as Aloft and Holiday transformed the approach to revenue management. Inn have expanded their footprint locally in response to the cost conscious consumer. Other companies from the technology sector and related industries have also entered the hotel market. This includes While Airbnb is known as the main industry disruptor from a e-commerce giant Alibaba, which has opened a key-less, cash- private rental perspective, there are many other companies less hotel in China where guests are served by robots and are now competing in the same market including FlipKey, Vrbo, able to access their room and hotel facilities through facial HomeAway, Expedia and more recently, Ease by Emaar, which recognition. was launched in September 2019. Ease by Emaar lists properties from Emaar communities that also have hotel-grade amenities It is essential that key providers and facilities such as Wi-Fi and housekeeping. embrace change and consider how This parallel increase in Midscale hotel stock and private rentals technology can be used to improve is expected to increase mid-market supply creating additional pressure on key metrics in this sector. their offering including personalising Owners and operators must position their product to meet the guest experience, improving the growing mid-market demand. This may include delivering revenue management, and monitoring branded apartments, which blend more traditional rental inventory with hotel grade services, and integrating short term online reviews for real time property rentals within their existing loyalty programs. Marriott recently management. added Homes & Villas by Marriott International, a short term rental platform, into their Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program. 8 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Residential market 9 Middle East Real Estate Predictions: Dubai | 2020 Dubai’s residential market Declines in prices and rents continue in Top 10 developers by off plan sales transactions, Q1 2019 to Q3 2019 2019 due to increasing supply. Review of 2019 performance Emaar Average sales prices for residential property in Dubai declined by approximately 7% between Q3 2018 and Q3 2019.
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