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Tenants Drive the Rental Market

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Tenants Drive the Rental Market Dubai ReportQ12009 Contracting Property Services Development Residential Tenants Drive the Rental Market HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS ISSUE Apartment and villa rental rates have decreased by 22 and 34% respectively when comparing Q4 2008 with Q1 2009. The percentage drop is similar across all unit types. People are moving Apartment Transaction Activity from larger units into smaller ones in some cases due to a reduction in household income. Picks Up p.2 In contrast, those who have not been adversely affected by the economic downturn, have Inflow vs. Outflow: The Effect the opportunity to upgrade to larger units or relocate from older buildings to newer ones. on Real Estate p.4 Additionally, people who previously left Dubai for the more affordable Northern Emirates are Strata Law No 27 of 2008 and now beginning to return. Service Charges p.6 The decline in rents is a relief for many tenants who previously paid up to half their salaries in rent. Better payment options of up to 12 cheques, grace periods and benefits such as one month free rent are also signs that the market is changing from being landlord to tenant- Asteco is the largest property services driven. Unit owners have realised that they can no longer expect double-digit yields, thus they company in the UAE. Asteco also has have to compete for the shrinking tenant pool as people leave and supply increases. offices in Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan. In the first quarter of 2009, average rents for studios, one-bedroom, two-bedroom and three- bedroom apartments reduced to AED 61,500, AED 93,000, AED 132,500 and AED 185,000 ASTECO’S SERVICES respectively. Sales and Leasing Average Apartment Rental Rates (Q4 2008-Q1 2009) 300,000 -35% Property Management 250,000 -30% Investment Agency -25% 200,000 -20% Valuation 150,000 -15% 100,000 AED/pa -10% Market Research 50,000 -5% Property Consultancy 0 0% Al Bur Deira Discovery Downtown Dubai Greens International Jumeirah Jumeirah Palm Sheikh Mirdiff Furnishing and Design Barsha Dubai Gardens Burj Dubai Marina City Beach Lake Jumeirah Zayed Residence Towers Road Studio 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR Percentage Change FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, Average Villa Rental Rates (Q4 2008-Q1 2009) 500,000 -45% PLEASE CONTACT: 450,000 -40% 400,000 -35% 350,000 -30% Judy Lam 300,000 -25% 250,000 Regional Research Manager -20% 200,000 -15% 150,000 Email: [email protected] AED/pa 100,000 -10% 50,000 -5% 0 0% Jenny Weidling Arabian Downtown Green Jumeirah Jumeirah Meadows Mirdiff Palm Springs Umm Ranches Burj Dubai Community Islands Jumeirah Suqeim Senior Research Analyst 3 BR 4 BR 5 BR Percentage Change Email: [email protected] Villas were available for AED 160,000 for two bedrooms, AED 215,000 for three bedrooms, Tel: +971 4 4037777 AED 264,000 for four bedrooms and AED 366,000 for five bedrooms. Fax: +971 4 4037778 Developments such as Jumeirah Beach Residence have received a great deal of interest due primarily to the abundance of retail shops and restaurants on The Walk, it’s proximity to Dubai Marina Mall, its completed infrastructure and the fact that it is well occupied. Customer Management: +971 4 403 77 00 www.asteco.com Residential Apartment Transaction Activity Picks Up Apartment sales prices have decreased by 39% since Q4 2008. Established community-style areas in new Dubai such as Dubai Marina, Finished units or those nearing completion in established locations, Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT), Discovery Gardens and Emirates Living such as Dubai Marina have started to stabilize as rates reach launch are evolving as the preferred areas to reside due to the completed price levels. As a result, transaction activity has begun to increase as infrastructure and convenience of leisure and retail facilities nearby. investors take advantage of the numerous opportunistic deals. Due to Initiatives announced by the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) the lack of mortgage availability, cash buyers currently dominate the and the government such as The RERA Register, Strata Law, On- market. Asteco has seen little movement in off-plan sales, irrespective line Progress Reports on Projects and Federal Residency Visa Law, of price levels as developers re-assess their commitments. represent important steps towards increasing transparency in the real estate market. This will, if properly implemented, boost investor confidence. Average Apartment Sales Prices (Q4 2008-Q1 2009) 3,500 -60% 3,000 -50% 2 2,500 -40% 2,000 -30% AED/ft 1,500 -20% 1,000 500 -10% 0 0% Business Bay DIFC Discovery Downtown Dubai Dubai Silicon Dubai Sports Greens International Jumeirah Jumeirah Mirdiff Palm Gardens Burj Dubai Marina Oasis City City Beach Lake Jumeirah Residence Towers Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Percentage Change Price Point Dominates Buying Decision Villa developments have experienced a greater decrease in sales less affordable, especially when the initial down-payment presents a prices compared with apartments. Villa prices have fallen by 43% major hurdle on the back of tight lending conditions. since Q4 2008. Villas on a price per square foot basis are generally Age, location and retail facilities in close proximity play a major factor lower priced than apartments; thus making the price point per unit in determining price levels and interest. Average Villa Sales Prices (Q4 2008-Q1 2009) 3,000 -70% 2,500 -60% -50% 2 2,000 -40% 1,500 AED/ft -30% 1,000 -20% 500 -10% 0 0% Arabian Dubai Sports Dubai Emirates Hills Green Jumeirah Jumeirah Jumeirah Meadows Mirdiff Palm Springs Ranches City Waterfront Community Island Park Village Jumeirah Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Percentage Change 02 For additional information call +971 4 403 77 00 or email [email protected] Commercial Finished Office Space Achieves Higher Premiums As depicted in the table below, the price difference between finished and off-plan units in various developments is considerable. Off-plan developments such as Downtown Jebel Ali have contributed highly to the average drop in prices. Development Off-plan (AED/ft2) Finished/Nearing Completion (AED/ft2) Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT) 950 1,500 Tecom 1,200 1,600 Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) 2,000 2,500 Office sales prices for finished units as well as off-plan units have been subject to a 42% decrease since Q4 2008. Instead of purchasing office space, many companies have opted for leasing to help with cash flow while expansion plans and start-ups have been put on hold until regional and global markets begin to stabilise. Average Office Sales Prices (Q4 2008-Q1 2009) 4,500 -60% 4,000 -50% 3,500 2 3,000 -40% 2,500 -30% AED/ft 2,000 1,500 -20% 1,000 -10% 500 0 0% Business Bay DIFC Downtown Dubai Dubai Silicon Dubai Sports Dubailand Jumeirah Lake Jumeirah Tecom Jebel Ali Investment Oasis City Towers Village Park Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Percentage Change DIFC Least Affected DIFC saw a smaller decrease of 10% in office rental rates compared with other developments. DIFC is expecting around 1,000,000 square feet of office space to materialise over the next four to six months with the completion of towers such as Liberty House, Index Tower and Currency House. Companies registered with DIFC but operate outside are likely to relocate when units become available. The average decrease in office rental rates in Dubai was 30% compared with Q4 2008. There is a shift towards smaller units with tenants preferring fitted rather than shell and core offices. This is generally the norm in international markets as it is cheaper and quicker to set up. Grade A quality office space in prime locations will be less affected than older buildings in remote or congested areas. Average Office Rental Rates (Q4 2008-Q1 2009) 600 -45% -40% 500 -35% 400 -30% /pa 2 -25% 300 -20% 200 -15% AED/ft -10% 100 -5% 0 0% Bur Dubai Deira DHCC DIFC Downtown Downtown Dubai Internet Dubai Dubai Media Jumeirah Lake Sheikh Zayed Tecom Burj Dubai Jebel Ali City Investment City Towers Road Park Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Percentage Change For additional information call +971 4 403 77 00 or email [email protected] www.asteco.com 03 Overview Inflow vs. Outflow: The Effect on Real Estate According to the Dubai Statistics Centre, the annual population cancelled. The Department of Naturalization and Residency (DNRD) growth rate between 2006 and 2008 has been in-line with the annual confirmed that the figures were for new residency visas only and did growth rate of 7.32% as depicted in the 2005 census. Current data not include renewed ones. suggests that the rate of growth has decreased over the last quarter, This suggests that the population is still growing albeit at a slower which is likely to continue in the short to medium-term. rate than originally anticipated. However, it should be noted that a percentage of these residency visas are issued to blue-collar workers Dubai Population (2005-March 2009) who live in accommodation owned by their employer. Therefore they are not in need of separate accommodation. 1.646 1.672 1.53 An increase in residential and commercial units in developments 1.422 1.321 such as Business Bay and JLT will have a downward effect on rental rates. Tenants are now in a stronger position to re-negotiate rental contracts. Landlords have recognised that they have to entice tenants with competitive rents or offer alternative payment options and benefits. To conclude therefore, Dubai’s population growth over the short to medium-term will be dampened until world markets stabilise. 2005 2006 2007 2008 Mar-09 Residency Visas Issued and Cancelled Source: Dubai Figure 2008-Dubai Statistics Centre 93,957 88,423 In a bid to help the economy recover and restore investor confidence, the UAE Federal Government’s central bank purchased a USD 10 54,684 billion (AED 36.7 billion) bond issued by the Government of Dubai under a USD 20 billion programme.
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